Solar activity forecast with a dynamo model

Although systematic measurements of the Sun's polar magnetic field exist only from mid-1970s, other proxies can be used to infer the polar field at earlier times. The observational data indicate a strong correlation between the polar field at a sunspot minimum and the strength of the next cycle, although the strength of the cycle is not correlated well with the polar field produced at its end. This suggests that the Babcock–Leighton mechanism of poloidal field generation from decaying sunspots involves randomness, whereas the other aspects of the dynamo process must be reasonably ordered and deterministic. Only if the magnetic diffusivity within the convection zone is assumed to be high (of order  10¹² cm² s⁻¹  ), we can explain the correlation between the polar field at a minimum and the next cycle. We give several independent arguments that the diffusivity must be of this order. In a dynamo model with diffusivity like this, the poloidal field generated at the mid-latitudes is advected toward the poles by the meridional circulation and simultaneously diffuses towards the tachocline, where the toroidal field for the next cycle is produced. To model actual solar cycles with a dynamo model having such high diffusivity, we have to feed the observational data of the poloidal field at the minimum into the theoretical model. We develop a method of doing this in a systematic way. Our model predicts that cycle 24 will be a very weak cycle. Hemispheric asymmetry of solar activity is also calculated with our model and compared with observational data.     

Evidence for a long-term variation of the dynamo action responsible for the solar magnetic cycle

By using the sunspot time series as a proxy, we have made a detailed analysis of the mean solar magnetic field over the last two and half centuries, by means of a reconstruction of its phase space. We find evidence of a long-term trend variation of some of the solar physical processes (over a few decades) that might be responsible for the apparent erratic behaviour of the solar magnetic cycle. The analysis is done by means of a careful study of the axisymmetric dynamo model equations, where we show that the temporal counterpart of the magnetic field can be described by a self-regulated two-dimensional dynamic system, usually known as a Van der Pol–Duffing oscillator. Our results suggest that during the last two and half centuries, the velocity of the meridional flow, v _p, and the efficiency of the α mechanism responsible for the conversion of toroidal magnetic field into poloidal magnetic field might have suffered variations that can explain the observed variability in the solar cycle.     

Probing sunspot magnetic fields with p-mode absorption and phase shift data

Long-standing observations of incoming and outgoing f- and p-modes in annuli around sunspots reveal that the spots partially absorb and substantially shift the phase of waves incident upon them. The commonly favoured absorption mechanism is partial conversion to slow magneto-acoustic waves that disappear into the solar interior channelled by the magnetic field of the sunspot. However, up until now, only f-mode absorption could be accounted for quantitatively by this means. Based on vertical magnetic field models, the absorption of p-modes was insufficient. In this paper, we use the new calculations of Crouch & Cally for inclined fields, and a simplified model of the interaction between spot interior and exterior. We find excellent agreement with phase shift data assuming field angles from the vertical in excess of 30° and Alfvén/acoustic equipartition depths of around 600–800 km. The absorption of f-modes produced by such models is considerably larger than is observed, but consistent with numerical simulations. On the other hand, p-mode absorption is generally consistent with observed values, up to some moderate frequency dependent on radial order. Thereafter, it is too large, assuming absorbing regions comparable in size to the inferred phase-shifting region. The excess absorption produced by the models is in stark contrast with previous calculations based on a vertical magnetic field, and is probably due to finite mode lifetimes and excess emission in acoustic glories. The excellent agreement of phase shift predictions with observational data allows some degree of probing of subsurface field strengths, and opens up the possibility of more accurate inversions using improved models. Most importantly, though, we have confirmed that slow mode conversion is a viable, and indeed the likely, cause of the observed absorption and phase shifts.     

Search for relationship between duration of the extended solar cycles and amplitude of sunspot cycle

Duration of the extended solar cycles is taken into the consideration. The beginning of cycles is counted from the moment of polarity reversal of large-scale magnetic field in high latitudes, occurring in the sunspot cycle n till the minimum of the cycle n + 2. The connection between cycle duration and its amplitude is established. Duration of the “latent” period of evolution of extended cycle between reversals and a minimum of the current sunspot cycle is entered. It is shown, that the latent period of cycles evolution is connected with the next sunspot cycle amplitude and can be used for the prognosis of a level and time of a sunspot maximum. The 24th activity cycle prognosis is made. The found dependences correspond to transport dynamo model of generation of solar cyclicity, it is possible with various speed of meridional circulation. Long-term behavior of extended cycle's lengths and connection with change of a climate of the Earth is considered. (© 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

A mean electromotive force induced by magnetic buoyancy instabilities

For a variety of reasons, based on results from magnetoconvection, self-consistent dynamo calculations and helioseismology, it seems plausible that the bulk of the solar magnetic field is located in the overshoot zone. Furthermore, it has also been suggested that the solar dynamo is operating in this region. The aim of this paper is then to show that it is possible to obtain a mean electromotive force (EMF), and hence an α -effect, in the convectively stable overshoot zone, which is driven by magnetic buoyancy instabilities.
By investigating the stability of a layer of magnetic field embedded between two non-magnetic layers of plasma we are able to show the following: first, that magnetic buoyancy instabilities indeed give rise to a mean EMF and, secondly, that the electromotive force is largest in the region where the magnetic layer is unstable, i.e. where the field strength decreases fastest with height.
Moreover, the influence of the rotation rate and the magnetic field strength on the magnetic buoyancy instability has been investigated in order to determine for which values of these parameters dynamo action might occur.     

Effect of noise on sunspot magnetic field parameters

Using a perturbated (noised) dipole model of a sunspot magnetic field structure we simulated the influence of background noise or apparent noise (unresolved small-scale magnetic field structure) on sunspot magnetic field parameters. We evaluated mean values of the vertical and horizontal electric current densities |j|_∥ and |j|_⊥, respectively, of the force-free parameter α and of the Lorentz force |F|. For comparison we estimated |j_⊥| and |F| of a standard sunspot magnetic field model (return-flux model, OSHEROVICH 1982). Furthermore, we compared our results with those from observations resulting in estimated values of |j|_∥ for quiet sunspots. Our investigation led to the following results: the estimated values of 〈|F|〉 show clearly that due to the noise the axisymmetric magnetic dipole model is clustered into several subsystems of fluxbundles. The latter are connected with a system of electric current densities of the order of |j|_∥ ∼ 10⁻³ Am⁻² and |j|_⊥ = 10⁻¹ Am⁻², i.e., this system is a noise-generated nonaxisymmetric magnetohydrostatic model.     

The solar dynamo in the light of the distribution of various sunspot magnetic classes over butterfly diagram

We present the data concerning the distribution of various sunspot magnetic classes over the solar butterfly diagram and discuss how this data can inform solar dynamo models. We use the statistics of sunspots that violate the Hale polarity law to estimate the ratio of the fluctuating and mean components of the toroidal magnetic field inside the solar convective zone. An analysis of the spatial distribution of bipolar, unipolar and complex sunspot groups in the context of simple dynamo models results in the conclusion that the mean toroidal field is relatively simple and maintains its shape during the course of the solar cycle (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

What is a flux tube? On the magnetic field topology of buoyant flux structures

We study the topology of field lines threading buoyant magnetic flux structures. The magnetic structures, visually resembling idealized magnetic flux tubes, are generated self-consistently by numerical simulation of the interaction of magnetic buoyancy and a localized velocity shear in a stably stratified atmosphere. Depending on the parameters, the system exhibits varying degrees of symmetry. By integrating along magnetic field lines and constructing return maps, we show that, depending on the type of underlying behaviour, the stages of the evolution, and therefore the degree of symmetry, the resulting magnetic structures can have field lines with one of three distinct topologies. When the x -translational and y -reflectional symmetries remain intact, magnetic field lines lie on surfaces but individual lines do not cover the surface. When the y symmetry is broken, magnetic field lines lie on surfaces and individual lines do cover the surface. When both x and y symmetries are broken, magnetic field lines wander chaotically over a large volume of the magnetically active region. We discuss how these results impact our simple ideas of a magnetic flux tube as an object with an inside and an outside, and introduce the concept of 'leaky' tubes.     

Magnetoconvection in an inclined magnetic field: linear and weakly non-linear models

Recent observations of sunspots have revealed a rich range of behaviour and a complicated magnetic field structure; magnetoconvection is the key physical process underlying these phenomena. Traditional studies of magnetoconvection have considered vertical, or sometimes horizontal, imposed fields. Tilted fields have received less attention, and yet these are crucial to sunspot dynamics, particularly in the penumbra where field lines are inclined at a variety of angles to the vertical. Tilting the field is also interesting from a purely theoretical viewpoint since it breaks many of the symmetries usually associated with convection problems. In this paper we study the linear stability of a layer permeated by an inclined magnetic field and go on to set up model equations in order to study the patterns formed in the weakly non-linear regime. Possible applications of the results to sunspots are discussed.     

The rise of twisted magnetic flux tubes

Sunspots are caused by the eruption of magnetic flux tubes through the solar photosphere: current theories of the internal magnetic field of the Sun suggest that such tubes must rise relatively unscathed from the base of the convection zone. In order to understand how the structure of the magnetic field within a buoyant flux tube affects its stability as it rises, we have considered the quasi-two-dimensional rise of isolated magnetic flux tubes through an adiabatically stratified atmosphere. The magnetic field is initially helical; we have investigated a range of initial field configurations, varying the distribution and strength of the twist of the field.     

Closure tests for mean field magnetohydrodynamics using a self-consistent reduced model

The mean electromotive force and α effect are computed for a forced turbulent flow using a simple non-linear dynamical model. The results are used to check the applicability of two basic analytic ansätze of mean-field magnetohydrodynamics – the second-order correlation approximation (SOCA) and the τ approximation. In the numerical simulations the effective Reynolds number Re is 2–20, while the magnetic Prandtl number P _m varies from 0.1 to 10⁷. We present evidence that the τ approximation may be appropriate in dynamical regimes where there is a small-scale dynamo. Catastrophic quenching of the α effect is found for high P _m. Our results indicate that for high P _m SOCA gives a very large value of the α coefficient compared with the 'exact' solution. The discrepancy depends on the properties of the random force that drives the flow, with a larger difference occurring for δ-correlated force compared with that for a steady random force.     

Cluster analysis for pattern recognition in solar butterfly diagrams

We investigate to what extent the wings of solar butterfly diagrams can be separated without an explicit usage of Hale's polarity law as well as the location of the solar equator. We apply two algorithms of cluster analysis for this purpose, namely DBSCAN and C‐means, and demonstrate their ability to separate the wings of contemporary butterfly diagrams based on the sunspot group density in the diagram only. Then we apply the method to historical data concerning the solar activity in the 18th century (Staudacher data). The method separates the two wings for Cycle 2, but fails to separate them for Cycle 1. In our opinion, this finding supports the interpretation of the Staudacher data as an indication of the unusual nature of the solar cycle in the 18th century (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Looking inside the butterfly diagram

The suitability of Maunder's butterfly diagram to give a realistic picture of the photospheric magnetic flux large scale distribution is discussed. The evolution of the sunspot zone in cycle 20 through 23 is described. To reduce the noise which covers any structure in the diagram, a smoothing algorithm has been applied to the sunspot data. This operation has eliminated any short period fluctuation, and given visibility to long duration phenomena. One of these phenomena is the fact that the equatorward drift of the spot zone center of mass results from the alternation of several prograde (namely, equatorward) segments with other stationary or poleward segments. The long duration of the stationary/retrograde phases as well as the similarities among the spot zone alternating paths in the cycles under examination prevent us from considering these features as meaningless fluctuations, randomly superimposed on the continuous equatorward migration. On the contrary, these features should be considered physically meaningful phenomena, requiring adequate explanations. Moreover, even the smoothed spotted area markedly oscillates. The compared examination of area and spot zone evolution allows us to infer details about the spotted area distribution inside the butterfly diagram. Links between the changing structure of the spot zone and the tachocline rotation rate oscillations are proposed. (© 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Calibration of Vector Magnetogram with the Nonlinear Least-squares Fitting Technique

To acquire Stokes profiles from observations of a simple sunspot with the Video Vector Magnetograph at Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS), we scanned the FeI λ5324.19A line over the wavelength interval from 150mA redward of the line center to 150 mA blueward, in steps of 10 mA. With the technique of analytic inversion of Stokes profiles via nonlinear least-squares, we present the calibration coefficients for the HSOS vector magnetic magnetogram. We obtained the theoretical calibration error with linear expressions derived from the Unno-Becker equation under weak-field approximation.     

Magnetic flux participation in solar surface magnetism during solar cycle 24

This study aims at investigating surface magnetic flux participation among different types of magnetic features during solar cycle 24. State-of-the-art observations from SDO/HMI and Hinode/SOT are combined to form a unique database in the interval from April 2010 to October 2015. Unlike previous studies, the statistics presented in this paper are feature-detection-based. More than 20 million magnetic features with relatively large scale, such as sunspot/pore, enhanced and quiet networks, are automatically detected and categorized from HMI observations, and the internetwork features are identified from SOT/SP observations. The total flux from these magnetic features reaches 5.9×10²² Mx during solar minimum and2.4 × 10²³ Mx in solar maximum. Flux occupation from the sunspot/pore region is 29% in solar maximum.Enhanced and quiet networks contribute 18% and 21% flux during the solar minimum, and 50% and 9% flux in the solar maximum respectively. The internetwork field contributes over 55% of flux in the solar minimum, and its flux contribution exceeds that of sunspot/pore features in the solar maximum. During the solar active condition, the sunspot field increases its area but keeps constant flux density of about 150 G,while the enhanced network follows the sunspot number variation showing increasing flux density and area,but the quiet network displays decreasing area and somewhat increasing flux density of about 6%. The origin of the quiet network is not known exactly, but is suggestive of representing the interplay between mean-field and local dynamos. The source, magnitude and possible importance of ‘hidden flux' are discussed in some detail.     

A New Method to Determine Epochs of Solar Cycle Extrema

A weighted average method is proposed to determine the epochs of solar cycle extrema and hence the solar cycle lengths. Comparing to the previous methods, this method has the advantage that the extremum epochs are easily and uniquely determined.     

The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.