中国地区臭氧前体物对地面臭氧的影响

利用GEOS-Chem模式的数值试验结果,研究中国地区NOx和两类VOCs对O3质量浓度分布及其化学机理的影响。研究表明,NOx的减少会使得中国西部O3质量浓度显著降低,但在冬季NOx的减少会使得东北、华北地区O3质量浓度上升。而京津唐地区由于VOCs/NOx比值偏低,不能通过单一减少NOx来控制O3质量浓度。VOCs排放的减少会使得我国东部地区O3质量浓度大幅减少,其中人为VOCs的减少能降低我国东部地面O3质量浓度,而生物VOCs的减少只能在夏秋季有效减少我国东部地区35°N以南区域的地面O3质量浓度。控制地面O3质量浓度时,中国西部主要考虑NOx的减排,东部35°N以北主要考虑AVOCs的减排,而30~35°N应同时考虑AVOCs和BVOCs的减排,在30°N以南的地区,则需要全面考虑NOx和VOCs的减排。     

中国东部地区典型臭氧污染过程防控敏感性及减排情景研究

近年来,我国东部地区夏季臭氧污染问题日渐凸显,成为影响空气质量、环境改善的重要因素之一,为量化评估臭氧前体物减排对臭氧污染的影响,本文以2021年6月19—30日中国东部地区臭氧污染过程为例,应用空气质量模型CMAQ-DDM方法与卫星遥感反演算法分析了东部地区臭氧浓度对人为源前体物排放敏感性的响应程度,并对臭氧前体物设置不同削减比例开展减排情景模拟,结果表明：1)2021年6月19—30日中国东部出现了一次长时间区域性臭氧污染过程,大部分城市达轻度至中度污染水平;2)整个污染时段东部地区主要以VOCs(Volatile Organic Compounds,挥发性有机物)控制区或VOCs与NO_x协同控制区为主,模型模拟与卫星反演结果具有较好的一致性,污染过程前段(19—25日)东部地区对VOCs敏感性较高,污染后段(26—30日)大部分地区转为VOCs和NO_x协同控制区,特别是河南、安徽、江苏部分地区,对NO_x敏感性提高较为显著;3)在相同减排比例条件下(VOCs∶NO_x=2∶1),减排幅度越大,臭氧...     

川渝盆地夏季旱涝变化特征及成因分析

利用川渝盆地18个观测站1955—2008年的月平均降水资料,分析了川渝盆地东、西部夏季降水的年代际变化特征;通过NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、NOAA OLR资料,分析了川渝盆地东、西部多雨年和少雨年的环流形势,结果表明:(1)川渝盆地东、西部夏季区域平均降水量呈负相关关系,且川渝盆地东、西部夏季降水的长期变化周期也有一定的差异。(2)在川渝盆地西部多雨年,500 hPa高度上北半球欧亚地区两脊一槽型环流发展,孟加拉湾的低气压有利于水汽从西南方向输送到我国,同时南亚高压西部增强,使得川渝盆地西部和我国河套地区降水偏多。而在川渝盆地东部多雨年,东亚高纬度地区经向环流有利于我国东部冷空气南下,配合副热带高压西伸,南亚高压东部减弱,我国中部地区和川渝盆地东部降水偏多。(3)前期春季OLR场特征对后期夏季川渝盆地夏季降水的预测有一定的指示意义。在川渝盆地西部多雨年,印度洋到孟加拉湾整个地区前期春季OLR减小,印度洋和孟加拉湾地区的对流活动增强,有利于水汽输送到川渝盆地西部地区。而川渝盆地东部多雨年,从南海向我国的水汽输送增强,盆地东部地区降水偏多。     

2006～2013年CMIP5模式中国降水预估误差分析

用第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）的10个模式模拟结果与英国东安格利亚大学（UEA）气候研究机构（CRU）的最新降水格点分析资料比较,评估了三种典型浓度路径（RCPs）排放情景下模式集合对2006～2013年中国降水预估误差,结果发现模式间年降水预估在西北和东部沿海地区差异较明显,在沿海地区模式降水估计偏少,在西部和北方大部分地区偏多;冬半年大部分地区模式降水明显偏多,部分地区甚至偏多一倍以上;夏半年东部季风区降水估计偏少,但西部仍然偏多。模式降水误差随时间变化,夏半年误差变化明显的区域主要集中在北方和东部地区,冬半年在东北南部、华东及华南等地。此外,提高排放情景对年降水量估计影响明显的地区主要集中在我国西部的部分地区,加剧了西北模式降水估计偏多程度,但对东部地区影响不大。El Ni?o与La Ni?a年的模式降水误差分布相似,仅在沿海部分地区和华北北部差异较明显,逐年误差分布特征也与此相似。各种误差的对比分析表明,模式降水误差可能多来自模式本身存在的问题,如积云对流参数化、固体降水物理过程、地形处理及分辨率等。这些误差特征说明,直接使用CMIP5模式集合情景输出资料估计未来降水的方法存在较大的不确定性,必须对其进行评估,以降低潜在用户或决策者们制定未来规划的风险。     

基于聚类分析的碳强度目标分解研究

基于地区聚类分析得到了我国2020年碳强度目标分解方案。根据各地区在经济能力、排放水平和减排潜力上的相似程度,将我国30个省区分成6类。按照公平原则,经济最发达的第1、2类地区减排目标最高,分别为55%和65%,但是其减排潜力较小;按照效率原则,减排潜力较大的第3、5类地区减排目标最高,分别为48%和61%,但是其经济相对落后;综合分解方案显示减排潜力最大的第5类地区,以及属于工业与排放大省的第2、3类地区的减排目标最高,分别为54%、49%和49%。而在这3种分解方案下,经济能力、排放水平与减排潜力都较低的第4类与第6类地区减排指标最高不超过40%。经济能力与减排潜力在空间上存在一定程度的错位,导致仅通过碳强度目标的分解无法较好地兼顾公平与效率,还需要建立配套的市场机制和政策工具。     

用卫星资料分析中国区域CO柱总量时空分布特征

该文利用国际先进在轨星载探测仪器SCIMACHY/ENVISAT和MOPITT/TERRA的一氧化碳(CO)柱总量观测资料,比较两个载荷的观测结果发现,二者在陆地区域的观测数据一致性较好,且与我国本底站近地面观测结果有比较一致的时间变化态势,表明CO柱总量卫星观测值可以很好地反映其在我国大气中的时空分布特性。利用MOPITT长时间的观测数据(2000年3月—2009年2月)对中国区域CO柱总量时空分布特性进行了分析,研究结果显示:我国东部地区CO柱总量显著高于西部地区,两个地区的CO柱总量年平均值9年内均呈上升态势,西部地区平均年增长率是千分之一的量级,东部地区年增长率约为1.0%。中国区域CO柱总量分布随季节变化显著,春季CO柱总量平均值最高,但是CO柱总量最小值,在东部地区出现在夏季,而西部地区出现在秋季。     

东南亚生物质燃烧对我国霾和降水的影响

基于生物质燃烧排放源清单、地面观测和数值模式对东南亚中南半岛生物质燃烧气溶胶的排放特征,以及其在2020年春季对我国云南地区霾天气和南方前汛期降水过程的影响进行了分析.结果 表明:中南半岛生物质燃烧气溶胶排放主要集中于每年3-4月,排放峰值时段集中于3月下旬至4月上旬,主要排放区域为缅甸东部和老挝北部.中南半岛生物质燃...     

中国地区云对太阳短波辐射吸收的研究

根据两种不同的方法（即直接法和斜率法）,对中国大陆地区有关云的异常吸收问题进行了初步的探讨,研究表明:我国大陆地区云辐射强迫比小于1.2;云对短波辐射的吸收西部要比东部小,但季节变化较东部略大;在青藏高原地区,文中得到的云辐射强迫比约为1.13。     

成都区域气象中心业务数值预报产品检验分析

依据国家气象中心T213、T639全球模式、成都区域中心实时运行的AREM、GRAPES和MM5中尺度数值模式预报结果,对2008年5~9月进行了日降水量和2m温度检验。结果表明:(1)模式对昆明、南京、广州、长沙、北京和郑州温度预报优于温江、兰州和拉萨站,其中拉萨站温度预报与实况偏差最大,即模式对我国中部及南部地区温度预报与实况近似程度高于西部地区。(2)东部地区中雨及以上量级降水评分高于西部,西部4个城市中以昆明站评分最高,反映模式对我国西部城市降雨预报能力偏弱。      

成都区域气象中心业务数值预报产品检验分析

依据国家气象中心T213、T639全球模式、成都区域中心实时运行的AREM、GRAPES和MM5中尺度数值模式预报结果,对2008年5～9月进行了日降水量和2m温度检验。结果表明：（1）模式对昆明、南京、广州、长沙、北京和郑州温度预报优于温江、兰州和拉萨站,其中拉萨站温度预报与实况偏差最大,即模式对我国中部及南部地区温度预报与实况近似程度高于西部地区。（2）东部地区中雨及以上量级降水评分高于西部,西部4个城市中以昆明站评分最高,反映模式对我国西部城市降雨预报能力偏弱。     

Spatial and Temporal Distributions of Atmospheric CO2 in East China Based on Data from Three Satellites

East China (23.6°–38.4°N, 113.6°–122.9°E) is the largest developed region in China. Based on CO₂ products retrieved from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), the spatial and temporal distributions of CO₂ mixing ratios in East China during 2014–17 are discussed, and the retrieved CO₂ from AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder) and OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2), as well as WLG (Waliguan) background station observations, are compared with those of GOSAT. The annual CO₂ retrieved from GOSAT in East China ranged from 398.96 ± 0.24 ppm in 2014 to 407.39 ± 0.20 ppm in 2017, with a growth rate of 2.82 ± 0.15 ppm yr^?1, which were higher than in other regions of China. The seasonal cycle presented a maximum in spring and a minimum in summer or autumn. Higher values were mainly concentrated in the coastal areas of Zhejiang Province, and lower values were concentrated in Jiangxi and the north of Fujian Province. CO₂ observed in Fujian and parts of Jiangxi increased by less than 1.0 ppm during 2014–15, but enhanced significantly by more than 5.0 ppm during 2015–16, perhaps influenced by local emissions and global impacts. We calculated year-to-year CO₂ enhancements in the Yangtze River Delta region during 2014–17 that were relatively low and stable, due to the region’s carbon emissions control and reduction policies. The annual and seasonal amplitudes of CO₂ retrieved from AIRS were lower than those from GOSAT in East China, probably owing to the CO₂ retrieved from AIRS better reflecting the characteristics of the mid-troposphere, while GOSAT is more representative of near-surface CO₂. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of CO₂ retrieved from OCO-2 were close to those from GOSAT in East China.     

Comparison of PM2.5 and CO2 Concentrations in Large Cities of China during the COVID-19 Lockdown

Estimating the impacts on PM_2.5pollution and CO₂emissions by human activities in different urban regions is important for developing efficient policies.In early 2020,China implemented a lockdown policy to contain the spread of COVID-19,resulting in a significant reduction of human activities.This event presents a convenient opportunity to study the impact of human activities in the transportation and industrial sectors on air pollution.Here,we investigate the variations in air quality attributed to the COVID-19 lockdown policy in the megacities of China by combining in-situ environmental and meteorological datasets,the Suomi-NPP/VIIRS and the CO₂emissions from the Carbon Monitor project.Our study shows that PM_2.5concentrations in the spring of 2020 decreased by 41.87%in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)and 43.30%in the Pearl River Delta(PRD),respectively,owing to the significant shutdown of traffic and manufacturing industries.However,PM_2.5concentrations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region only decreased by 2.01%because the energy and steel industries were not fully paused.In addition,unfavorable weather conditions contributed to further increases in the PM_2.5concentration.Furthermore,CO₂concentrations were not significantly affected in China during the short-term emission reduction,despite a 19.52%reduction in CO₂emissions compared to the same period in 2019.Our results suggest that concerted efforts from different emission sectors and effective long-term emission reduction strategies are necessary to control air pollution and CO₂emissions.     

Simulation of Non-Homogeneous CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and Its Impact on Regional Temperature in East Asia

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is an important greenhouse gas that influences regional climate through disturbing the earth’s energy balance. The CO₂ concentrations are usually prescribed homogenously in most climate models and the spatiotemporal variations of CO₂ are neglected. To address this issue, a regional climate model (RegCM4) is modified to investigate the non-homogeneous distribution of CO₂ and its effects on regional longwave radiation flux and temperature in East Asia. One-year simulation is performed with prescribed surface CO₂ fluxes that include fossil fuel emission, biomass burning, air–sea exchange, and terrestrial biosphere flux. Two numerical experiments (one using constant prescribed CO₂ concentrations in the radiation scheme and the other using the simulated CO₂ concentrations that are spatially non-homogeneous) are conducted to assess the impact of non-homogeneous CO₂ on the regional longwave radiation flux and temperature. Comparison of CO₂ concentrations from the model with the observations from the GLOBALVIEW-CO₂ network suggests that the model can well capture the spatiotemporal patterns of CO₂ concentrations. Generally, high CO₂ mixing ratios appear in the heavily industrialized eastern China in cold seasons, which probably relates to intensive human activities. The accommodation of non-homogeneous CO₂ concentrations in the radiative transfer scheme leads to an annual mean change of–0.12 W m^–2 in total sky surface upward longwave flux in East Asia. The experiment with non-homogeneous CO₂ tends to yield a warmer lower troposphere. Surface temperature exhibits a maximum difference in summertime, ranging from–4.18 K to 3.88 K, when compared to its homogeneous counterpart. Our results indicate that the spatial and temporal distributions of CO₂ have a considerable impact on regional longwave radiation flux and temperature, and should be taken into account in future climate modeling.     

人类活动排放的CO2及气溶胶对20世纪70年代末中国东部夏季降水年代际转折的影响

全球变暖背景下,中国东部夏季降水在20世纪70年代末开始较19世纪呈现东北及长江中、下游地区多雨,华北及华南少雨的特征。与此同时,人类活动排放的CO₂及气溶胶量也发生了明显的年代际变化。文中利用地球系统耦合模式（CESM）诊断了中国东部夏季的水分收支对人类活动排放的CO₂及气溶胶年代际变化的响应。发现CO₂排放量增加后,江淮流域的水汽辐合以及中国南方的水汽辐散主要是与质量辐散有关的动力项及与湿度梯度相关的热力项共同作用的结果,但动力作用更显著。气溶胶效应则主要通过动力作用使得江淮流域水汽辐合,而中国南方地区水汽辐散。虽然CO₂和气溶胶对辐射量及温度的影响差别很大,但通过改变温度梯度,热成风效应产生的动力作用都会导致江淮流域上升运动增强,降水增多;而中国南方下沉运动显著,降水减少,与观测结果一致,且CO₂相较于气溶胶的影响更为显著,证实了20世纪70年代末人类活动对中国东部夏季降水年代际转折的影响。      

Present and future surface climate in the western USA as simulated by 15 global climate models

We analyze results of 15 global climate simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Focusing on the western USA, we consider both present climate simulations and predicted responses to increasing atmospheric CO₂. The models vary in their ability to predict the present climate. In the western USA, a few models produce a seasonal cycle for spatially averaged temperature and/or precipitation in good agreement with observational data. Other models tend to over-predict precipitation in the winter or exaggerate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of temperature. The models also differ in their ability to reproduce the spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation in the USA. Considering the monthly mean precipitation responses to doubled atmospheric CO₂, averaged over the western USA, we find some models predict increases while others predict decreases. The predicted temperature response, on the other hand, is invariably positive over this region; however, for each month, the range of values given by the different models is large compared to the mean model response. We look for possible relationships between the models temperature and precipitation responses to doubled CO₂ concentration and their ability to simulate some aspects of the present climate. We find that these relationships are weak, at best. The precipitation response over the western USA in DJF and the precipitation response over the mid- and tropical latitudes seem to be correlated with the RMS error in simulated present-day precipitation, also calculated over the mid- and tropical latitudes. However, considering only the responses of the models with the smallest RMS errors does not provide a different estimate of the precipitation response to a doubled CO₂ concentration, because even among the most accurate models, the range of model responses is so large. For temperature, we find that models that have smaller RMS errors in present-climate temperature in the north eastern Pacific region predict a higher temperature response in the western USA than the models with larger errors. A similar relation exists between the temperature response over Europe in DJF and the RMS error calculated over the Northern Atlantic.     

Estimated N2O and CO2 Emissions as Influenced by Agricultural Practices in Canada

The Denitrification-Decompostion (DNDC) model was used to estimate the impact of change in management practices on N₂O emissions in seven major soil regions in Canada, for the period 1970 to 2029. Conversion of cultivated land to permanent grassland would result in the greatest reduction in N₂O emissions, particularly in eastern Canada wherethe model estimated about 60% less N₂O emissions for thisconversion. About 33% less N₂O emissions were predicted for a changefrom conventional tillage to no-tillage in western Canada, however, a slight increase in N₂O emissions was predicted for eastern Canada. GreaterN₂O emissions in eastern Canada associated with the adoption of no-tillage were attributed to higher soil moisture causing denitrification, whereas the lower emissions in western Canada were attributed to less decomposition of soil organic matter in no-till versus conventional tilled soil. Elimination of summer fallow in a crop rotation resulted in a 9% decrease in N₂O emissions, with substantial emissions occurringduring the wetter fallow years when N had accumulated. Increasing N-fertilizer application rates by 50% increased average emissions by 32%,while a 50% decrease of N-fertilizer application decreased emissions by16%. In general, a small increase in N₂O emissions was predicted when N-fertilizer was applied in the fall rather than in the spring. Previous research on CO₂ emissions with the CENTURY model (Smith et al.,2001) allowed the quantification of the combined change in N₂O andCO₂ emissions in CO₂ equivalents for a wide range of managementpractices in the seven major soil regions in Canada. The management practices that have the greatest potential to reduce the combined N₂O andCO₂ emissions are conversion from conventional tillage to permanent grassland, reduced tillage, and reduction of summer fallow. The estimated net greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction when changing from cultivated land to permanent grassland ranged from 0.97 (Brown Chernozem) to 4.24 MgCO₂ equiv. ha^–1 y^–1 (BlackChernozem) for the seven soil regions examined. When changing from conventional tillage to no-tillage the net GHG emission reduction ranged from 0.33 (Brown Chernozem) to 0.80 Mg CO₂ equiv. ha^–1 y^–1 (Dark GrayLuvisol). Elimination of fallow in the crop rotation lead to an estimated net GHG emission reduction of 0.43 (Brown Chernozem) to 0.80 Mg CO₂ equiv.ha^–1 y^–1 (Dark Brown Chernozem). The addition of 50% more or 50% less N-fertilizer both resulted in slight increases in combined CO₂ and N₂O emissions. There was a tradeoff in GHG flux with greaterN₂O emissions and a comparable increase in carbon storage when 50% more N-fertilizer was added. The results from this work indicate that conversion of cultivated land to grassland, the conversion from conventional tillage to no-tillage, and the reduction of summerallow in crop rotations could substantially increase C sequestration and decrease net GHG emissions. Based on these results a simple scaling-up scenario to derive the possible impacts on Canada's Kyoto commitment has been calculated.     

基于WRF模式的京津冀地区地表大气CO2浓度的模拟研究

在“双碳”目标背景下，从国家层面到地方层面，区域、城市、行业企业都在制定和实施双碳目标行动计划。CO₂模拟因其客观性和高时空分辨率等优势，在城市碳排放研究中深受重视。本研究以京津冀地区为研究区域，采用Picarro仪器高精度观测的2019—2020年CO₂数据，利用WRF模式进行CO₂传输模拟，分析了CO₂浓度变化的季节特征，评估了模式在城区中心、城郊及背景3个观测站点的模拟效果，并对边界层高度及化石燃料碳排放等可能影响CO₂浓度的因素进行了研究。3个观测站点分别为北京中国科学院大气物理研究所325 m气象塔观测站（北京站）、河北香河观测站（香河站）和上甸子区域本底观测站（上甸子站）。模拟结果表明：上甸子站优于香河站，香河站优于北京站，在冬季尤其明显；CO₂浓度的高值区主要分布在城区、电厂和工业区，尤其是唐山、石家庄和邯郸地区，大量交通、工业排放导致CO₂浓度明显上升，且高值区的范围在冬季最大；就日平均变化和日变化而言，边界层高度与CO₂浓度存在相反变化趋势；3个站点的化石燃料碳排放（FFECO2）与近地面总CO₂浓度存在正相关关系，冬春季的相关性高于夏秋季，且FFECO2的占比从大到小依次为北京站、香河站、上甸子站；CO₂传输模拟的不确定性存在空间差异和季节变化。     

Analysis of measurement data on carbon dioxide concentration in the near-ice surface atmosphere at North Pole-35 drifting ice station (2007–2008)

Significant CO₂ concentration disturbances with an amplitude of 150 ppm are observed in October–November in the region of North Pole-35 drifting ice station over the continental slope of the Arctic Ocean. A local maximum of the CO₂ concentration disturbances is observed in April; it is connected with a change in the regime of the sea ice deformation at that time of the year in the western Arctic basin. Changes in the CO₂ concentration have oscillations at the frequency of oceanic tides. Several episodes of the initial phase of CO₂ release into the near-ice surface atmosphere in October 2007 are recorded. The CO₂ amount released into the atmosphere as a result of ice formation in the Arctic Ocean is a significant quantity in the total balance of the CO₂ release on the global scale and accounts for approximately 30% of the anthropogenic release of CO₂ per year.     

The impacts of economic structure on China’s carbon dioxide emissions: an analysis with reference to other East Asian economies

A change in economic structure influences the total energy consumption as well as CO₂ emissions of a country, given the inherent difference in levels of energy intensity and energy fuel mix of different economic sectors. Its significance has been recognized in recent literature on China’s emission mitigation which could arguably raise China’s mitigation potential and thus the possibility of keeping the 2-degree trajectory on track. This article utilizes the past trend of economic structural change of five East Asian developed economies to project the energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of China in the coming decades. A special delineation of the economic sector is made, putting private consumption together with the three typical economic production sectors, to resolve the mismatch between the statistical data of energy consumption and economic production, in that residential energy consumption is typically merged into the tertiary sector, although it does not directly correspond to gross domestic product (GDP) output. Results suggest that the level of CO₂ emissions would be lower if China followed a development pathway emphasizing the development of the tertiary sector and continuously shrinking her secondary sector, making it possible for China to contribute more to global carbon mitigation. The impact from the rise of private consumption would be relatively insignificant compared to deindustrialization. In addition to continuous improvement in technology, economic structural change, which reduces carbon emission intensity, would be essential for China to be able to achieve the carbon emission level pledged in the Paris Agreement.

Key policy insights

• For China, significant economic structural reform, particularly deindustrialization, is necessary to achieve the goal of ‘peak emission by 2030’.

• Any additional contribution from China to the global effort to maintain a 2-degree trajectory would be limited – from a ‘fair-contribution’ perspective based on share of population or GDP – because the implied mitigation targets would be almost impossible to achieve.

• If developing countries follow the pathway of developed economies, particularly in developing energy-intensive industries, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions would significantly increase, reducing the possibility of keeping global temperature rise within the 2-degree Celsius benchmark.

     

Determinants of CO2 emission for post-Soviet Union independent countries

This article analyses the determinants of CO₂ emission for 15 post-Soviet Union independent (PSI) countries given their recent transition to market-based economies and their relatively high levels of corruption. The direct and indirect effects of economic growth on CO₂ emission for the PSI countries are derived using a multiple-equation generalized method of moment (GMM) approach to account for simultaneity among corruption, growth and CO₂ emission. A linear relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and CO₂ emission was observed from the analysis. Furthermore, GDP influences CO₂ emission directly, but also indirectly through its impact on corruption. Similarly, corruption affects CO₂ emission directly, as well as indirectly through its impact on GDP. Political democracy and economic freedom increase CO₂ emission indirectly through their impact on economic growth. Improved energy efficiency and the EU climate policy reduce CO₂ emission, while inflows of foreign direct investment tend to increase CO₂ emission.

Policy relevance

First, PSI countries need to invest more in efficient energy technologies to mitigate CO₂ emission levels significantly. Second, PSI policies aimed at reducing deforestation (thereby increasing population density) may help mitigate carbon emission. Third, PSI countries would be well served to recognize the detrimental effects of foreign direct investment before embarking on a misguided policy path that attracts such inflows at any cost.