Random patterns of occurrence of explosive eruptions at Colima Volcano, Mexico

Analysis of the patterns of eruption occurrences may improve our understanding of volcanic processes. In this paper, the available historical data of an individual volcano, Colima in México, are used to classify its eruptions by size using the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). The data shows that, if eruptions are only taken into account above a certain VEI level, the stochastic process associated with the explosive volcanic events can be represented by a non-stationary Poisson point process, which can be reduced to a homogeneous Poisson process through a transformation of the time axis. When eruptions are separated by VEI values, the occurrence patterns of each magnitude category can also be represented by a Poisson distribution. Analysis of the rate of occurrence of all eruptions with VEI greater than 1 permits the recognition of three distinct regimes or rates of volcanic activity during the last 430 years. A double stochastic Poisson model is suggested to describe this non-stationary eruptive pattern of Colima volcano and a Bayesian approach permits an estimation the present hazard.     

Probabilistic hazard analysis of Citlaltépetl (Pico de Orizaba) Volcano, eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt

Citlaltépetl or Pico de Orizaba is the highest active volcano in the North American continent. Although Citlaltépetl is at present in repose, its eruptive history reveals repetitive explosive eruptions in the past. Its relatively low eruption rate has favored significant population growth in areas that may be affected by a potential eruptive activity. The need of some criteria for hazards assessment and land-use planning has motivated the use of statistical methods to estimate the time and space distribution of volcanic hazards around this volcano. The analysis of past activity, from late Pleistocene to historic times, and the extent of some well-identified deposits are used to calculate the recurrence probabilities of eruptions of various size during time periods useful for land-use planning.     

A statistical analysis of flank eruptions on Etna volcano

A singularly complete record exists for the eruptive activity of Etna volcano. The time series of occurrence of flank eruptions in the period 1600–1980, in which the record is presumably complete, is found to follow a stationary Poisson process. A revision of the available data shows that eruption durations are rather well correlated with the estimates of the volume of lava flows. This implies that the magnitude of an eruption can be defined directly by its duration. Extreme value statistics are then applied to the time series, using duration as a dependent variable. The probability of occurrence of a very long (300 days) eruption is greater than 50% only in time intervals of the order of 50 years. The correlation found between duration and total output also allows estimation of the probability of occurrence of a major event which exceeds a given duration and total flow of lava. The composite probabilities do not differ considerably from the pure ones. Paralleling a well established application to seismic events, extreme value theory can be profitably used in volcanic risk estimates, provided that appropriate account is also taken of all other variables.     

Precursory seismicity of the 1994 eruption of Popocatépetl Volcano,Central Mexico

Popocatépetl Volcano is located in the central Mexican Volcanic Belt, within a densely populated region inhabited by over 20 million people. The eruptive history of this volcano indicates that it is capable of producing a wide range of eruptions, including Plinian events. After nearly 70 years of quiescence, Popocatépetl reawakened in December 21, 1994. The eruptive activity has continued up until the date of this submission and has been characterized by a succession of lava dome growth-and-destruction episodes, similar to events that have apparently been typical for Popocatépetl since the fourteenth century. In this regime, the episodes of effusive and moderately explosive activity alternate with long periods of almost total quiescence. In this paper we analyze five years of volcano-tectonic seismicity preceding the initial eruption of the current episode. The evolution of the V-T seismicity shows four distinct stages, which we interpret in terms of the internal processes which precede an eruption after a long period of quiescence. The thermal effects of a magma intrusion at depth, the fracturing related to the slow development of magma-related fluid pathways, the concentration of stress causing a protracted acceleration of this process, and a final relaxation or redistribution of the stress shortly before the initial eruption are reflected in the rates of V-T seismic energy release. A hindsight analysis of this activity shows that the acceleration of the seismicity in the third stage asymptotically forecast the time of the eruption. The total seismic energy release needed to produce an eruption after a long period of quiescence is related to the volume of rock that must be fractured so imposing a characteristic threshold limit for polygenetic volcanoes, limit that was reached by Popocatépetl before the eruption.     

Hazard map for volcanic ballistic impacts at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico)

During volcanic explosions, volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBP) are frequently ejected. These projectiles represent a threat to people, infrastructure, vegetation, and aircraft due to their high temperatures and impact velocities. In order to protect people adequately, it is necessary to delimit the projectiles’ maximum range within well-defined explosion scenarios likely to occur in a particular volcano. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for VBP during volcanic eruptions is applied to Popocatépetl volcano. Three explosion scenarios with different intensities have been defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with VBP ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the “launching” kinetic energy of VBP observed in the field. In the case of Vulcanian eruptions, the most common type of activity at Popocatépetl, the ballistic model was used in concert with an eruptive model to correlate ballistic range with initial pressure and gas content, parameters that can be estimated by monitoring techniques. The results are validated with field data and video observations of different Vulcanian eruptions at Popocatépetl. For each scenario, the ballistic model is used to calculate the maximum range of VBP under optimum “launching” conditions: ballistic diameter, ejection angle, topography, and wind velocity. Our results are presented in the form of a VBP hazard map with topographic profiles that depict the likely maximum ranges of VBP under explosion scenarios defined specifically for Popocatépetl volcano. The hazard zones shown on the map allow the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises.     

Volcanism in Iceland in historical time: Volcano types,eruption styles and eruptive history

The large-scale volcanic lineaments in Iceland are an axial zone, which is delineated by the Reykjanes, West and North Volcanic Zones (RVZ, WVZ, NVZ) and the East Volcanic Zone (EVZ), which is growing in length by propagation to the southwest through pre-existing crust. These zones are connected across central Iceland by the Mid-Iceland Belt (MIB). Other volcanically active areas are the two intraplate belts of Öræfajökull (ÖVB) and Snæfellsnes (SVB). The principal structure of the volcanic zones are the 30 volcanic systems, where 12 are comprised of a fissure swarm and a central volcano, 7 of a central volcano, 9 of a fissure swarm and a central domain, and 2 are typified by a central domain alone.Volcanism in Iceland is unusually diverse for an oceanic island because of special geological and climatological circumstances. It features nearly all volcano types and eruption styles known on Earth. The first order grouping of volcanoes is in accordance with recurrence of eruptions on the same vent system and is divided into central volcanoes (polygenetic) and basalt volcanoes (monogenetic). The basalt volcanoes are categorized further in accordance with vent geometry (circular or linear), type of vent accumulation, characteristic style of eruption and volcanic environment (i.e. subaerial, subglacial, submarine).Eruptions are broadly grouped into effusive eruptions where >95% of the erupted magma is lava, explosive eruptions if >95% of the erupted magma is tephra (volume calculated as dense rock equivalent, DRE), and mixed eruptions if the ratio of lava to tephra occupy the range in between these two end-members. Although basaltic volcanism dominates, the activity in historical time (i.e. last 11 centuries) features expulsion of basalt, andesite, dacite and rhyolite magmas that have produced effusive eruptions of Hawaiian and flood lava magnitudes, mixed eruptions featuring phases of Strombolian to Plinian intensities, and explosive phreatomagmatic and magmatic eruptions spanning almost the entire intensity scale; from Surtseyan to Phreatoplinian in case of “wet” eruptions and Strombolian to Plinian in terms of “dry” eruptions. In historical time the magma volume extruded by individual eruptions ranges from ∼1 m³ to ∼20 km³ DRE, reflecting variable magma compositions, effusion rates and eruption durations.All together 205 eruptive events have been identified in historical time by detailed mapping and dating of events along with extensive research on documentation of eruptions in historical chronicles. Of these 205 events, 192 represent individual eruptions and 13 are classified as “Fires”, which include two or more eruptions defining an episode of volcanic activity that lasts for months to years. Of the 159 eruptions verified by identification of their products 124 are explosive, effusive eruptions are 14 and mixed eruptions are 21. Eruptions listed as reported-only are 33. Eight of the Fires are predominantly effusive and the remaining five include explosive activity that produced extensive tephra layers. The record indicates an average of 20–25 eruptions per century in Iceland, but eruption frequency has varied on time scale of decades. An apparent stepwise increase in eruption frequency is observed over the last 1100 years that reflects improved documentation of eruptive events with time. About 80% of the verified eruptions took place on the EVZ where the four most active volcanic systems (Grímsvötn, Bárdarbunga–Veidivötn, Hekla and Katla) are located and 9%, 5%, 1% and 0.5% on the RVZ–WVZ, NVZ, ÖVB, and SVB, respectively. Source volcano for ∼4.5% of the eruptions is not known.Magma productivity over 1100 years equals about 87 km³ DRE with basaltic magma accounting for about 79% and intermediate and acid magma accounting for 16% and 5%, respectively. Productivity is by far highest on the EVZ where 71 km³ (∼82%) were erupted, with three flood lava eruptions accounting for more than one half of that volume. RVZ–WVZ accounts for 13% of the magma and the NWZ and the intraplate belts for 2.5% each. Collectively the axial zone (RVZ, WVZ, NVZ) has only erupted 15–16% of total magma volume in the last 1130 years.     

Seismic pattern recognition techniques to predict large eruptions at the Popocatépetl,Mexico, volcano

Using pattern recognition techniques, we formulate a simple prediction rule for a retrospective prediction of the three last largest eruptions of the Popocatépetl, Mexico, volcano that occurred on 23 April–30 June 1997 (Eruption 1; VEI ~ 2–3); 11 December 2000–23 January 2001 (Eruption 2; VEI ~ 3–4) and 7 June–4 September 2002 (Eruption 3; explosive dome extrusion and destruction phase). Times of Increased Probability (TIP) were estimated from the seismicity recorded by the local seismic network from 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2005. A TIP is issued when a cluster of seismic events occurs under our algorithm considerations in a temporal window several days (or weeks) prior to large volcanic activity providing sufficient time to organize an effective alert strategy. The best predictions of the three analyzed eruptions were obtained when averaging seismicity rate over a 5-day window with a threshold value of 12 events and declaring an alarm for 45 days. A TIP was issued about six weeks before Eruption 1. TIPs were detected about one and four weeks before Eruptions 2 and 3, respectively. According to our objectives, in all cases, the observed TIPs would have allowed the development of an effective civil protection strategy. Although, under our model considerations the three eruptive events were successfully predicted, one false alarm was also issued by our algorithm. An analysis of the epicentral and depth distribution of the local seismicity used by our prediction rule reveals that successful TIPs were issued from microearthquakes that took place below and towards SE of the crater. On the contrary, the seismicity that issued the observed false alarm was concentrated below the summit of the volcano. We conclude that recording of precursory seismicity below and SE of the crater together with detection of TIPs as described here, could become an important tool to predict future large eruptions at Popocatépetl. Although our model worked well for events that occurred in the past, it is necessary to verify the real capability of the model for future eruptive events.     

Phreatomagmatic eruptions associated with the caldera collapse during the Miyakejima 2000 eruption,Japan

The 2000 AD eruption of Miyakejima was characterized by a series of phreatomagmatic eruptions from the subsiding caldera. Six major eruptive events occurred, and they can be divided into the first and second periods separated by a 25-day hiatus. The phreatomagmatic eruptions produced a total of ~ 2 × 10¹⁰ kg of tephra, which mainly comprised fine-grained volcanic ash. The tephra layers could be divided into six fall units corresponding to the six major eruptive events.     

THE HISTORICAL RECORDS OF VOLCANIC ERUPTION IN THE KOREAN PENINSULA

The historical document record is of vital significance to determine the volcanic eruption history age in the volcanology research and it cannot be replaced by ¹⁴C dating and other methods. The volcanoes are widely distributed in the northeast area of China, but there is lack of relevant historical records. However, there are the records of the volcanic eruption in the historical documents of Goryeo Dynasty(AD918-1392)and Joseon Dynasty(AD1391-1910)in the Korean Peninsula which is separated by a river with China only. Some of the records have been widely used as important information to the research of Changbaishan Tianchi volcano eruption history by researchers both at home and abroad, but they have different opinions. On the basis of the historical documents in the Korean Peninsula, that is, the History of Goryeo Dynasty and the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty so on, the phenomena of volcanic eruptions, including the intuitive eruptive events and the doubtful volcanic eruption phenomenon such as "the ash fall", "the white hair fall", "the sky fire", "the dust fall" are investigated and put in order systematically in this paper. The results are as follows:1)The intuitive eruptive events are the 1002AD eruption of Mt. Halla volcano on Jeju Island, Korea Peninsula, and the 1007AD volcanic eruption offshore to the west of Jeju Island, Korea Peninsula, as well as the 1597AD eruption of Mt. Wangtian'e volcano in Changbai County, Jilin Province, China; 2)"The ash fall" is airborne volcanic ash, and those "ash falls" happening in 1265, 1401-1405, 1668, 1673 and 1702AD are possibly the tephra of Changbaishan Tianchi volcano; 3)"The white hair fall" is Pele's hair and it is speculated that the "white hair fall "happening in 1737AD is related to Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic eruption; 4)If regarding "the sky fire" as the volcanic eruption phenomenon, "the sky fire" happening in 1533AD is possibly the Changbaishan volcanic eruption event, and "the sky fire" in 1601-1609AD may be the eruptive event of the Longgang volcano in Jilin Province, China or Changbaishan Tianchi volcano; 5)"The dust fall" is recorded in many historical documents. However, "the dust fall" is not the volcanic ash fall but the phenomenon of loess fall. So, it is improper to determine the eruptive events of Changbaishan Tianchi volcano on the basis of "the dust fall".     

Emergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: A new evidence-based approach

Disasters from explosive volcanic eruptions are infrequent and experience in emergency planning and mitigation for such events remains limited. The need for urgently developing more robust methods for risk assessment and decision making in volcanic crises has become increasingly apparent as world populations continue to expand in areas of active explosive volcanism. Nowhere is this more challenging than at Vesuvius, Italy, with hundreds of thousands of people living on the flanks of one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. We describe how a new paradigm, evidence-based volcanology, has been applied in EXPLORIS to contribute to crisis planning and management for when the volcano enters its next state of unrest, as well as in long-term land-use planning. The analytical approach we adopted enumerates and quantifies all the processes and effects of the eruptive hazards of the volcano known to influence risk, a scientific challenge that combines field data on the vulnerability of the built environment and humans in past volcanic disasters with theoretical research on the state of the volcano, and including evidence from the field on previous eruptions as well as numerical simulation modelling of eruptive processes. Formal probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty and a decision analysis approach have provided the basis for the development of an event tree for a future range of eruption types with probability paths and hypothetical casualty outcomes for risk assessment. The most likely future eruption scenarios for emergency planning were derived from the event tree and elaborated upon from the geological and historical record. Modelling the impacts in these scenarios and quantifying the consequences for the circumvesuvian area provide realistic assessments for disaster planning and for showing the potential risk–benefit of mitigation measures, the main one being timely evacuation, but include for consideration protecting buildings against dilute, low dynamic pressure surges, and temporary roof supports in the most vulnerable buildings, as well as hardening infrastructure and lifelines. This innovative work suggests that risk-based methods could have an important role in crisis management at cities on volcanoes and small volcanic islands.     

Poisson-distributed patterns of explosive eruptive activity

The study of patterns of eruption occurrence could lead to a better understanding of the physics behind the volcanic process. However, various attempts to find a single statistical distribution that describes the occurrences of volcanic eruptions have not been successful. Global data show that, if the energies of point events in time (eruptions) are properly accounted above a certain noise level, the stochastic process — whose realization consists of explosive volcanic events — can be well represened by a Poisson point process, though not necessarily stationary. Many previous attempts to describe patterns of eruption occurrences were hampered by counting events with all levels of explosivity in the same category. When eruptions are separated by their sizes, the occurrence patterns of the higher magnitude eruptions become clearly Poissonian. In this study eruptions are classified by size using the Volcanic Explosivity Index (Newhall and Self 1982). Further analysis of the magnitude-characterized eruption data shows direct relations among the energy of eruptions, mean rate of occurrences and distribution of repose intervals between eruptions. An important result from the analysis of energy and mean rate of occurrence data is that, for global data, the product of those parameters is a constant. Simple load-and-discharge models provide an explanation of the random features of the volcanic processes. These considerations lead to the definition of a constinuous magnitude scale for volcanic eruptions which can consistently measure the energy and the rate-of-occurrence of eruptions over a wide range of values.     

Hazard area and recurrence rate time series for determining the probability of volcanic disruption of the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA

The post-12-Ma volcanism at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, a potential site for an underground geologic repository of high-level radioactive waste in the USA, is assumed to follow a Poisson process and is characterized by a sequence of empirical recurrence rate time series. The last ten time series are used as a prediction set to check the predictive ability of the candidate model produced by a training sample using autoregressive integrated moving average modeling techniques. The model is used to forecast future recurrence rates that, in turn, are used to develop a continuous mean function of the volcanic process, which is not only required to evaluate the probability of site disruption by volcanic activity but accommodates a long period of compliance. At the model validation stage, our candidate model forecasts a mean number of 6.196 eruptions for the prediction set which accounts for seven volcanic events of the 33 post-12-Ma eruptions at the YM site. For a full-scaled forecasting, our fitted model predicts a waning volcanism producing only 3.296 new eruptions in the next million years. We then present the site disruption probability as the chance that a new eruption will occur in the “hazard area” based on a model developed for licensing commercial space launch and reentry operations in the space transportation industry. The results of the site disruption probability and sensitivity analysis are summarized with a numerical table generated from a simple equation sufficient for practical use. We also produce three-dimensional plots to visualize the nonlinearity of the intensity function associated with the underlying model of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and emphasize that the interpretation of site disruption probability should always be accompanied by a compliance period.     

Hazard assessment of far-range volcanic ash dispersal from a violent Strombolian eruption at Somma-Vesuvius volcano, Naples, Italy: implications on civil aviation

Long-range dispersal of volcanic ash can disrupt civil aviation over large areas, as occurred during the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallaj?kull volcano in Iceland. Here we assess the hazard for civil aviation posed by volcanic ash from a potential violent Strombolian eruption of Somma-Vesuvius, the most likely scenario if eruptive activity resumed at this volcano. A Somma-Vesuvius eruption is of concern for two main reasons: (1) there is a high probability (38?%) that the eruption will be violent Strombolian, as this activity has been common in the most recent period of activity (between AD 1631 and 1944); and (2) violent Strombolian eruptions typically last longer than higher-magnitude events (from 3 to 7?days for the climactic phases) and, consequently, are likely to cause prolonged air traffic disruption (even at large distances if a substantial amount of fine ash is produced such as is typical during Vesuvius eruptions). We compute probabilistic hazard maps for airborne ash concentration at relevant flight levels using the FALL3D ash dispersal model and a statistically representative set of meteorological conditions. Probabilistic hazard maps are computed for two different ash concentration thresholds, 2 and 0.2?mg/m³, which correspond, respectively, to the no-fly and enhanced procedure conditions defined in Europe during the Eyjafjallaj?kull eruption. The seasonal influence of ash dispersal is also analysed by computing seasonal maps. We define the persistence of ash in the atmosphere as the time that a concentration threshold is exceeded divided by the total duration of the eruption (here the eruption phase producing a sustained eruption column). The maps of averaged persistence give additional information on the expected duration of the conditions leading to flight disruption at a given location. We assess the impact that a violent Strombolian eruption would have on the main airports and aerial corridors of the Central Mediterranean area, and this assessment can help those who devise procedures to minimise the impact of these long-lasting low-intensity volcanic events on civil aviation.     

Rise of volcanic plumes to the stratosphere aided by penetrative convection above large lava flows

Turbulent volcanic plumes disperse fine ash particles and toxic gases in the atmosphere and can lead to significant temperature drops in the atmosphere. In the geological past, the emplacement of large continental flood basalts (CFB) has been associated with large changes in the global environment and extinctions of biological species. The variable intensity of environmental changes induced by otherwise similar CFB events, however, begs for a reevaluation of physical controls on the environmental impact of volcanic eruptions. The climatic impact of an eruption depends on its ability to inject gases in the stratosphere and on the eruption rate. Using integral models of turbulent plumes above line and point sources, we find that mass rate estimates for CFBs are in general not large enough for volcanic plumes to reach the stratosphere on their own. Basaltic eruptions, however, are also associated with widespread lava flows which lose large amounts of heat and generate convection in the atmosphere. This form of convection, known as penetrative convection, acts to erode the stably stratified lower atmosphere and generates a thick well-mixed heated atmospheric layer in a few hours. The added buoyancy provided by such a layer almost always ensures that volcanic gases get transported to the stratosphere. The environmental consequences of CFBs are therefore controlled not by the inputs to the atmosphere from individual volcanic plumes, but by the dynamic response of the climate system to a succession of short eruptive pulses within a longer-lasting eruption sequence.     

The geological evolution of Merapi volcano, Central Java, Indonesia

Merapi is an almost persistently active basalt to basaltic andesite volcanic complex in Central Java (Indonesia) and often referred to as the type volcano for small-volume pyroclastic flows generated by gravitational lava dome failures (Merapi-type nuées ardentes). Stratigraphic field data, published and new radiocarbon ages in conjunction with a new set of ⁴⁰K–⁴⁰Ar and ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar ages, and whole-rock geochemical data allow a reassessment of the geological and geochemical evolution of the volcanic complex. An adapted version of the published geological map of Merapi [(Wirakusumah et al. 1989), Peta Geologi Gunungapi Merapi, Jawa Tengah (Geologic map of Merapi volcano, Central Java), 1:50,000] is presented, in which eight main volcano stratigraphic units are distinguished, linked to three main evolutionary stages of the volcanic complex—Proto-Merapi, Old Merapi and New Merapi. Construction of the Merapi volcanic complex began after 170?ka. The two earliest (Proto-Merapi) volcanic edifices, Gunung Bibi (109?±?60?ka), a small basaltic andesite volcanic structure on Merapi’s north-east flank, and Gunung Turgo and Gunung Plawangan (138?±?3?ka; 135?±?3?ka), two basaltic hills in the southern sector of the volcano, predate the Merapi cone sensu stricto. Old Merapi started to grow at ~30?ka, building a stratovolcano of basaltic andesite lavas and intercalated pyroclastic rocks. This older Merapi edifice was destroyed by one or, possibly, several flank failures, the latest of which occurred after 4.8?±?1.5?ka and marks the end of the Old Merapi stage. The construction of the recent Merapi cone (New Merapi) began afterwards. Mostly basaltic andesite pyroclastic and epiclastic deposits of both Old and New Merapi (<11,792?±?90 ¹⁴C years BP) cover the lower flanks of the edifice. A shift from medium-K to high-K character of the eruptive products occurred at ~1,900 ¹⁴C years BP, with all younger products having high-K affinity. The radiocarbon record points towards an almost continuous activity of Merapi since this time, with periods of high eruption frequency interrupted by shorter intervals of apparently lower eruption rates, which is reflected in the geochemical composition of the eruptive products. The Holocene stratigraphic record reveals that fountain collapse pyroclastic flows are a common phenomenon at Merapi. The distribution and run-out distances of these flows have frequently exceeded those of the classic Merapi-type nuées ardentes of the recent activity. Widespread pumiceous fallout deposits testify the occurrence of moderate to large (subplinian) eruptions (VEI 3–4) during the mid to late Holocene. VEI 4 eruptions, as identified in the stratigraphic record, are an order of magnitude larger than any recorded historical eruption of Merapi, except for the 1872?AD and, possibly, the October–November 2010 events. Both types of eruptive and volcanic phenomena require careful consideration in long-term hazard assessment at Merapi.     

Seismicity and crustal deformation preceding the January 1996 eruptions at Karymsky Volcanic Center,Kamchatka

Two explosive eruptions occurred on 2 January 1996 at Karymsky Volcanic Center (KVC) in Kamchatka, Russia: the first, dacitic, from the central vent of Karymsky volcano, and the second, several hours later, from Karymskoye lake in the caldera of Akademia Nauk volcano. The main significance of the 1996 volcanic events in KVC was the phreatomagmatic eruption in Karymskoye lake, which was the first eruption in this lake in historical time, and was a basaltic eruption at the acidic volcanic center. The volcanic events were associated with the 1 January Ms 6.7 (Mw 7.1) earthquake that occurred at a distance of about 9–17 km southeast from the volcanoes just before the eruptions. We study the long-term (1972–1995) and short-term (1–2 January 1996) characteristics of crustal deformations and seismicity before the double eruptive event in KVC. The 1972–1995 crustal deformation was homogeneous and characterized by a gradual extension with a steady velocity. The seismic activity in 1972–1995 developed at the depth interval from 0 to 20 km below the Akademia Nauk volcano and spread to the southeast along a regional fault. The seismic activity in January 1996 began with a short sequence of very shallow microearthquakes (M ~0) beneath Karymsky volcano. Then seismic events sharply increased in magnitude (up to mb 4.9) and moved along the regional fault to the southeast, culminating in the Ms 6.7 earthquake. Its aftershocks were located to the southeast and northwest from the main shock, filling the space between the two active volcanoes and the ancient basaltic volcano of Zhupanovsky Vostryaki. The eruption in Karymskoye lake began during the aftershock sequence. We consider that the Ms 6.7 earthquake opened the passageway for basic magma located below Zhupanovsky Vostryaki volcano that fed the eruption in Karymskoye lake.     

Estimation of tephra volumes from sparse and incompletely observed deposit thicknesses

We present a Bayesian statistical approach to estimate volumes for a series of eruptions from an assemblage of sparse proximal and distal tephra (volcanic ash) deposits. Most volume estimates are of widespread tephra deposits from large events using isopach maps constructed from observations at exposed locations. Instead, we incorporate raw thickness measurements, focussing on tephra thickness data from cores extracted from lake sediments and through swamp deposits. This facilitates investigation into the dispersal pattern and volume of tephra from much smaller eruption events. Given the general scarcity of data and the physical phenomena governing tephra thickness attenuation, a hybrid Bayesian-empirical tephra attenuation model is required. Point thickness observations are modeled as a function of the distance and angular direction of each location. The dispersal of tephra from larger well-estimated eruptions are used as leverage for understanding the smaller unknown events, and uncertainty in thickness measurements can be properly accounted for. The model estimates the wind and site-specific effects on the tephra deposits in addition to volumes. Our technique is exemplified on a series of tephra deposits from Mt Taranaki (New Zealand). The resulting estimates provide a comprehensive record suitable for supporting hazard models. Posterior mean volume estimates range from 0.02 to 0.26 km ³. Preliminary examination of the results suggests a size-predictable relationship.     

Reconstruction of the eruptive activity on the NE sector of Stromboli volcano: timing of flank eruptions since 15 ka

A multidisciplinary geological and compositional investigation allowed us to reconstruct the occurrence of flank eruptions on the lower NE flank of Stromboli volcano since 15 ka. The oldest flank eruption recognised is Roisa, which occurred at ~15 ka during the Vancori period, and has transitional compositional characteristics between the Vancori and Neostromboli phases. Roisa was followed by the San Vincenzo eruption that took place at ~12 ka during the early stage of Neostromboli period. The eruptive fissure of San Vincenzo gave rise to a large scoria cone located below the village of Stromboli, and generated a lava flow, most of which lies below sea level. Most of the flank eruptions outside the barren Sciara del Fuoco occurred in a short time, between ~9 and 7 ka during the Neostromboli period, when six eruptive events produced scoria cones, spatter ramparts and lava flows. The Neostromboli products belong to a potassic series (KS), and cluster in two differently evolved groups. After an eruptive pause of ~5,000 years, the most recent flank eruption involving the NE sector of the island occurred during the Recent Stromboli period with the formation of the large, highly K calc-alkaline lava flow field, named San Bartolo. The trend of eruptive fissures since 15 ka ranges from N30°E to N55°E, and corresponds to the magma intrusions radiating from the main feeding system of the volcano.