Some regularity in the process of re-awakening of andesite and dacite volcanoes: specific features of the 1982 El Chichón volcano,México reactivation

El Chichón volcano is an andesite stratovolcano in southern México. It erupted in March 1982, after about 550 years of quiescence. The 1982 eruption of El Chichón has not been followed by the growth of a lava dome within the newly formed crater. This is rather anomalous since the construction of a new dome after the destruction of an old one is a common process during the eruptions at andesite and dacite volcanoes. To discuss this anomalous aspect of the El Chichón eruption, some regularity in the process of re-awakening of dormant (here defined as a period of quiescence of more than 100 years) andesite and dacite volcanoes are studied based on the seismic activity recorded at the volcanoes Bezymianny, Mount St. Helens, El Chichón, Unzen, Pinatubo and Soufrière Hills. Three stages were identified in the re-awakening activity of these volcanoes: (1) preliminary seismic activity, leading up to the first phreatic explosion; (2) activity between the first and the largest explosions; (3) post-explosion dome-building process. The eruptions were divided into two groups: low-VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index) and the long duration stage-1 events (Unzen, 1991 and Soufrière Hills volcano, 1995) and high-VEI and the short duration stage-1 events (Bezymianny, 1956; Mount St. Helens, 1980; El Chichón, 1982 and Pinatubo, 1992). The comparative analysis of the seismo-eruptive activity of two eruptions of the second group, the 1980 of Mt. St. Helens and the 1982 of El Chichón, produced an explanation the absence of new dome building during the 1982 eruption of El Chichón volcano. It may be explained in terms of the unusually rapid emission of gas and water from the magmatic and hydrothermal system beneath the volcano during a relatively short sequence of large explosions that could have sharply increased the viscosity of the magma making impossible its exit to the surface.     

Volcano hazards program in the United States

Volcano monitoring and volcanic-hazards studies have received greatly increased attention in the United States in the past few years. Before 1980, the Volcanic Hazards Program was primarily focused on the active volcanoes of Kilauea and Mauna Loa, Hawaii, which have been monitored continuously since 1912 by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. After the reawakening and catastrophic eruption of Mount St. Helens in 1980, the program was substantially expanded as the government and general public became aware of the potential for eruptions and associated hazards within the conterminous United States. Integrated components of the expanded program include: volcanic-hazards assessment; volcano monitoring; fundamental research; and, in concert with federal, state, and local authorities, emergency-response planning.In 1980 the David A. Johnston Cascades Volcano Observatory was established in Vancouver, Washington, to systematically monitor the continuing activity of Mount St. Helens, and to acquire baseline data for monitoring the other, presently quiescent, but potentially dangerous Cascade volcanoes in the Pacific Northwest. Since June 1980, all of the eruptions of Mount St. Helens have been predicted successfully on the basis of seismic and geodetic monitoring.The largest volcanic eruptions, but the least probable statistically, that pose a threat to western conterminous United States are those from the large Pleistocene-Holocene volcanic systems, such as Long Valley caldera (California) and Yellowstone caldera (Wyoming), which are underlain by large magma chambers still potentially capable of producing catastrophic caldera-forming eruptions. In order to become better prepared for possible future hazards associated with such historically unpecedented events, detailed studies of these, and similar, large volcanic systems should be intensified to gain better insight into caldera-forming processes and to recognize, if possible, the precursors of caldera-forming eruptions.     

Frequent eruptions of Mount Rainier over the last ∼2,600 years

Field, geochronologic, and geochemical evidence from proximal fine-grained tephras, and from limited exposures of Holocene lava flows and a small pyroclastic flow document ten–12 eruptions of Mount Rainier over the last 2,600 years, contrasting with previously published evidence for only 11–12 eruptions of the volcano for all of the Holocene. Except for the pumiceous subplinian C event of 2,200 cal year BP, the late-Holocene eruptions were weakly explosive, involving lava effusions and at least two block-and-ash pyroclastic flows. Eruptions were clustered from ∼2,600 to ∼2,200 cal year BP, an interval referred to as the Summerland eruptive period that includes the youngest lava effusion from the volcano. Thin, fine-grained tephras are the only known primary volcanic products from eruptions near 1,500 and 1,000 cal year BP, but these and earlier eruptions were penecontemporaneous with far-traveled lahars, probably created from newly erupted materials melting snow and glacial ice. The most recent magmatic eruption of Mount Rainier, documented geochemically, was the 1,000 cal year BP event. Products from a proposed eruption of Mount Rainier between AD 1820 and 1854 (X tephra of Mullineaux (US Geol Surv Bull 1326:1–83, 1974)) are redeposited C tephra, probably transported onto young moraines by snow avalanches, and do not record a nineteenth century eruption. We found no conclusive evidence for an eruption associated with the clay-rich Electron Mudflow of ∼500 cal year BP, and though rare, non-eruptive collapse of unstable edifice flanks remains as a potential hazard from Mount Rainier. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. T. W. Sisson and J. W. Vallance contributed equally to this study.     

The hazards of eruptions through lakes and seawater

Eruptions through crater lakes or shallow seawater, referred to here as subaqueous eruptions, present hazards from hydromagmatic explosions, such as base surges, lahars, and tsunamis, which may not exist at volcanoes on dry land. We have systematically compiled information from eruptions through surface water in order to understand the circumstances under which these hazards occur and what disastrous effects they have caused in the past. Subaqueous eruptions represent only 8% of all recorded eruptions but have produced about 20% of all fatalities associated with volcanic activity in historical time. Excluding eruptions that have resulted in about a hundred deaths or less, lahars have killed people in the largest number of historical subaqueous eruptions (8), followed by pyroclastic flows (excluding base surges; 5) tsunamis (4), and base surges (2). Subaqueous eruptions have produced lahars primarily on high (>1000 m), steep-sided volcanoes containing small (<1 km diameter) crater lakes. Tsunamis and other water waves have caused death or destroyed man-made structures only at submarine volcanoes and at Lake Taal in the Philippines. In spite of evidence that magma–water mixing makes eruptions more explosive, such explosions and their associated base surges have caused fewer deaths, and have been implicated in fewer eruptions involving large numbers of fatalities than lahars and tsunamis. The latter hazards are more deadly because they travel much farther from a volcano and inundate coastal areas and stream valleys that tend to be densely settled.     

长白山天池火山溃湖洪水最大流量的初步估算及影响分析

长白山天池火山是目前最具潜在喷发危险的活火山。依据长白山天池火山的最新监测研究成果,结合地形地貌、水文流域特点及天池火山历史喷发类型,重点分析了长白山天池火山未来喷发时发生溃湖洪水的危险性。利用相关的水动力学公式,建立了溃口规模和洪水湿周、流量和流速的内在关系。详细分析溃湖洪峰在下游二道白河镇、白山水电站、红石水电站等关键位置的最大流量及流速。结果表明,若天池火山湖水溃泄一半即10亿m3时,距火山口50km处的二道白河镇瞬时洪水流速达84 904m3/s,该镇将全部被淹没。下游的白山水库、丰满水库将分别受到流量23 560m3/s和1 505m3/s洪水的冲击,水库安全受到严重威胁。     

Morphological analysis of active Mount Nemrut stratovolcano, eastern Turkey: evidences and possible impact areas of future eruption

Mount Nemrut, an active stratovolcano in eastern Turkey, is a great danger for its vicinity. The volcano possesses a summit caldera which cuts the volcano into two stages, i.e. pre- and post-caldera. Wisps of smoke and hot springs are to be found within the caldera. Although the last recorded volcanic activity is known to have been in 1441, we consider here that the last eruption of Nemrut occurred more recently, probably just before 1597. The present active tectonic regime, historical eruptions, occurrence of mantle-derived magmatic gases and the fumarole and hot spring activities on the caldera floor make Nemrut Volcano a real danger for its vicinity. According to the volcanological past of Nemrut, the styles of expected eruptions are well-focused on two types: (1) occurrence of water within the caldera leads to phreatomagmatic (highly energetic) eruptions, subsequently followed by lava extrusions, and (2) effusions–extrusions (non-explosive or weakly energetic eruptions) on the flanks from fissures. To predict the impact area of future eruptions, a series of morphological analyses based on field observations, Digital Elevation Model and satellite images were realized. Twenty-two valleys (main transport pathways) were classified according to their importance, and the physical parameters related to the valleys were determined. The slope values in each point of the flanks and the Heim parameters H/L were calculated. In the light of morphological analysis the possible impact areas around the volcano and danger zones were proposed. The possible transport pathways of the products of expected volcanic events are unified in three main directions: Bitlis, Guroymak, Tatvan and Ahlat cities, the about 135 000 inhabitants of which could be threatened by future eruptions of this poorly known and unsurveyed volcano.     

The May 1915 eruptions of Lassen Peak, II: May 22 volcanic blast effects, sedimentology and stratigraphy of deposits, and characteristics of the blast cloud

The May 22, 1915 eruptions of Lassen Peak involved a volcanic blast and the emplacement of three geographically and temporally distinct lahar deposits. The volcanic blast occurred when a Vulcanian explosion at the summit unroofed a shallow magma source, generating an eruption cloud that rose to an estimated height of 9 km above sea level. The blast cloud was probably caused by the collapse of a small portion of the eruption column; absence of a flank vent associated with these eruptions argues against it originating as an explosion that has been directed by vent geometry or location. The volcanic blast devasted 7 km² of the northeast flank of the volcano, and emplaced a deposit of juvenile tephra and accidental lithic and mineral fragments. Decrease in blast deposit thickness and median grain size with increasing distance from the vent suggests that the blast cloud lost transport competence as it crossed the devastated area. Scanning electron microscope examination of pyroclasts from the blast deposit indicates that the blast cloud was a dry, turbulent suspension that emplaced a thin deposit which cooled rapidly after deposition. Lahar deposits were emplaced primarily in Lost Creek, with minor lahars flowing down gullies on the west, northwest and north flanks of the volcano. The initial lahar was apparently triggered early in the eruption when the blast cloud melted the residual snowpack as it moved down the northeast flank of the peak. The event that triggered the later lahars is enigmatic; the presence of approximately five times more juvenile dacite bombs on the surface of the later lahars suggests that they may have been triggered by a change in eruption style or dynamics.     

Mount Vesuvius: 2000 years of volcanological observations

Mount Vesuvius had eruptions ranging between VEI 5+ to 0–1 during the last 2000 years. Infrequent explosive eruptions are recorded during the period 79 AD to 1631. Since the violent explosive eruption of 1631, the volcano has been in persistent activity, rebuilding the morphology that it had before that eruption. A succession of explosive and effusive eruptions occurred until 1944, with a predominance of short and violent episodes until 1872 and longer effusive eruptions since that date. Two factors mainly controlled the character of volcanic activity during this period: (1) the strength of the cone, which allowed, in the earlier period, an easy fracturing, rapid drainage, and pressure release of the magma column; (2) the interaction between magma and water, which enhanced the explosivity of several eruptions.The volcano appears to have reached a stage of quiescence because it finally attained a shape of equilibrium in which the height of the mountain is sufficient to counterbalance the buoyancy of the magma.     

2017年全球活动火山时空分布以及阿贡火山喷发前后的形变特征

归纳总结2017年度全球81座活火山的活动情况,共计活动1058座次,平均每周记录20座活火山的活动信息。根据火山潜在喷发的危险性和火山活动的强弱程度对上述火山进行分级描述,火山活动主要反映了地球表层的构造活动,其中大角度俯冲带的弧后火山最为强烈,小角度的俯冲带、拉张裂谷和走滑为主的板块边界火山活动较为平静,火山活动频繁的印度尼西亚岛链是受灾最为严重的区域。预计全球火山活动将进一步加剧,印尼岛链受火山灾害威胁的程度依然较大。位于印尼岛链巴厘岛上的阿贡火山自2017年9月开始活动以来,整个喷发过程极具代表性,监测阿贡火山喷发过程可为全球典型火山喷发事件研究提供参考。     

长白山天池火山碎屑流灾害区划

在回顾总结了国外火山碎屑流灾害分析模型研究历史的基础上,本文选取了Flow3D模型对我国东北地区长白山天池火山未来大喷发可能产生的火山碎屑流进行了灾害区域划分。以长白山天池火山现代地形为依据,设定了11条未来爆炸式火山喷发时产生的火山碎屑流的可能流动线路。模拟结果表明,在喷发柱高度为10km的情况下,灾害区划最大半径为13.7km;在喷发柱高度为20km的情况下,灾害区划最大半径为35.4km;在喷发柱高度为30km的情况下,灾害区划最大半径为57.8km。在此基础上,得出了长白山天池火山未来发生中规模、大规模和超大规模火山喷发时火山碎屑流的覆盖范围,完成了我国第一幅长白山天池火山碎屑流灾害区划图。     

Magma chamber evolution prior to the Campanian Ignimbrite and Neapolitan Yellow Tuff eruptions (Campi Flegrei,Italy)

The Campi Flegrei (Campanian Region, Italy) experienced two cataclysmic caldera-forming eruptions which produced the Campanian Ignimbrite (39 ka, CI) and the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (15 ka, NYT). We studied the minor eruptions before both these large events to understand magma chamber evolution leading towards such catastrophic eruptions. Major, trace element, and Sr and Nd isotope compositions of pre-Campanian Ignimbrite and pre-Neapolitan Yellow Tuff products define distinct geochemical groups, which are here interpreted as distinct magma batches. These batches do not show any transitional trend towards the CI and NYT eruptions. The CI and NYT systems are decoupled geochemically and isotopically. At least one of the pre-CI and one of the pre-NYT erupted magma batches qualifies as mixing endmembers for the large CI and NYT eruptions, and thus, must have been stored in reservoirs for some time to remain available for the CI and NYT eruptions. The least evolved, isotopically distinct magma compositions that are typical of the last phases of the NYT and CI eruptions did not occur before caldera-forming events. Based on the new data, we propose the following scenario: Multiple magma chambers with distinct compositions existed below the Campi Flegrei before the CI and NYT eruptions and remained generally separated for some time unless new magma was recharged. In each case, one of the residing magma reservoirs was recharged by a new large-volume magma input of intermediate composition from a deeper differentiating magma reservoir. This may have triggered the coalescence of the previously separated reservoirs into one large chamber which fed the cataclysmic caldera-forming eruption. Large magma chambers in the Campi Flegrei may therefore be ephemeral features, interrupted by periods of evolution in individual, separated magma reservoirs.     

Slope instability induced by volcano-tectonics as an additional source of hazard in active volcanic areas: the case of Ischia island (Italy)

Ischia is an active volcanic island in the Gulf of Naples whose history has been dominated by a caldera-forming eruption (ca. 55 ka) and resurgence phenomena that have affected the caldera floor and generated a net uplift of about 900 m since 33 ka. The results of new geomorphological, stratigraphical and textural investigations of the products of gravitational movements triggered by volcano-tectonic events have been combined with the information arising from a reinterpretation of historical chronicles on natural phenomena such as earthquakes, ground deformation, gravitational movements and volcanic eruptions. The combined interpretation of all these data shows that gravitational movements, coeval to volcanic activity and uplift events related to the long-lasting resurgence, have affected the highly fractured marginal portions of the most uplifted Mt. Epomeo blocks. Such movements, mostly occurring since 3 ka, include debris avalanches; large debris flows (lahars); smaller mass movements (rock falls, slumps, debris and rock slides, and small debris flows); and deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. The occurrence of submarine deposits linked with subaerial deposits of the most voluminous mass movements clearly shows that the debris avalanches impacted on the sea. The obtained results corroborate the hypothesis that the behaviour of the Ischia volcano is based on an intimate interplay among magmatism, resurgence dynamics, fault generation, seismicity, slope oversteepening and instability, and eruptions. They also highlight that volcano-tectonically triggered mass movements are a potentially hazardous phenomena that have to be taken into account in any attempt to assess volcanic and related hazards at Ischia. Furthermore, the largest mass movements could also flow into the sea, generating tsunami waves that could impact on the island’s coast as well as on the neighbouring and densely inhabited coast of the Neapolitan area.     

Mechanism of explosive eruption revealed by geophysical observations at the Sakurajima,Suwanosejima and Semeru volcanoes

A common sequence of phenomena associated with volcanic explosions is extracted based on seismic and ground deformation observations at 3 active volcanoes in Japan and Indonesia. Macroscopic inflation-related ground deformations are detected prior to individual explosions, while deflations are observed during eruptions. Precursory inflation occurs 5 min to several hours before eruption at the Sakurajima volcano, but just 1–2 min at Suwanosejima and 3–30 min at the Semeru volcano. The sequence commences with minor contraction, which is detected by extensometers 1.5 min before eruption at Sakurajima, as a dilatant first motion of the explosion earthquakes 0.2–0.3 s before surface explosions at Suwanosejima, and as downward tilt 4–5 s prior to eruption at the Semeru volcano. The sequence is detected for explosive eruptions with > 0.1 μrad tilt change at Sakurajima, 90% at Suwanosejima and 75% at Semeru volcanoes. It is inferred that the minor contraction is caused by a volume and pressure decrease due to the release of gas from a pocket at the top of the conduit as the gas pressure exceeds the strength of the confining plug. The subsequent violent expansion may be triggered by sudden outgassing of the water-saturated magma induced by the decrease in confining pressure.     

Effect of gas emissions from Tianchi volcano (NE China) on environment and its potential volcanic hazards

One of largest eruptions in the Tianchi volcano during the Holocene occurred in about 1000 years ago[1―3]. The volcanic ash erupted had been found in Japan, which is more than 1000 km from the Tianchi volcanic vent[4,5]. Moreover, this eruption has been recognized in the study of Greenland ice core (GISP2)[6,7]. There have been many studies about eruption products of the Tianchi volcano, which dominantly focused on petrological, geochemical and volcanic eruptive dynamic aspects[8―10]. On…     

Lahars at Merapi volcano, Central Java: an overview

Merapi volcano, in Central Java, is one of the most active volcanoes in the world. At least 23 of the 61 reported eruptions since the mid-1500s have produced source deposits for lahars. The combined lahar deposits cover about 286 km² on the flanks and the surrounding piedmonts of the volcano. At Merapi, lahars are commonly rain-triggered by rainfalls having an average intensity of about 40 mm in 2 h. Most occur during the rainy season from November to April, and have average velocities of 5–7 m/s at 1000 m in elevation. A wide range of facies may be generated from a single flow, which may transform downvalley from debris flow to hyperconcentrated streamflow.Because of the high frequency and magnitude of the lahar events, lahar-related hazards are high below about 450–600 m elevation in each of the 13 rivers which drain the volcano. Hazard-zone maps for lahar were produced by Pardyanto et al. (Volcanic hazard map, Merapi volcano, Central Java (1/100,000). Geol. Surv. of Indonesia, Bandung, II, 4, 1978) and the Japanese–Indonesian Cooperation Agency (Master plan for land conservation and volcanic debris control in the area of Mt Merapi, Jakarta, 1980), but these maps are of a very small scale to meet modern zoning requirements. More recently, a few large-scale maps (1/10,000- and 1/2000-scale) and risk assessments have been completed for a few critical river systems.     

The February–July 2007 eruption of the summit crater of Klyuchevskoi volcano, Kamchatka

Observations of the summit eruption of Klyuchevskoi volcano in the period from February 15, 2007 to July 9, 2007 are considered. This typical (for this volcano) summit eruption was explosive-effusive in character. The ejectamenta volume is estimated at 0.025 km³. Calculation of active phases of the volcano was carried out in accordance with V.A. Shirokov’s technique. The identified active phases agree well with the eruptive periods. The 2007 summit eruption corresponds to an active phase (May 2006 to May 2009) favorable for the volcano’s eruption. Geodetic observations carried out since 1979 along a radial profile have revealed uplifts and subsidences of the northeastern slope of the volcano. The maximum displacement of 23 cm was recorded in 2007 on the site closest to the volcano crater at a distance of 11 km from the summit crater center. In the course of two previous summit eruptions (2003–2004 and 2005) insignificant uplifts and subsidences of the slope were also noted, although the general ascent of the slope remained. This indicated possible repeated eruptions in the nearest future. Changes in the seismicity before, during and after the eruption are also discussed.     

Toward a revised hazard assessment at Merapi volcano, Central Java

Of 1.1 million people living on the flanks of the active Merapi volcano, 440,000 are at relatively high risk in areas prone to pyroclastic flows, surges, and lahars. For the last two centuries, the activity of Merapi has alternated regularly between long periods of viscous lava dome extrusion, and brief explosive episodes at 8–15 year intervals, which generated dome-collapse pyroclastic flows and destroyed part of the pre-existing domes. Violent explosive episodes on an average recurrence of 26–54 years have generated pyroclastic flows, surges, tephra-falls, and subsequent lahars. The 61 reported eruptions since the mid-1500s killed about 7000 people. The current hazard-zone map of Merapi (Pardyanto et al., 1978) portrays three areas, termed ‘forbidden zone’, ‘first danger zone’ and ‘second danger zone’, based on successively declining hazards. Revision of the hazard map is desirable, because it lacks details necessary to outline hazard zones with accuracy, in particular the valleys likely to be swept by lahars, and excludes some areas likely to be devastated by pyroclastic gravity-currents such as the 22 November 1994 surge. In addition, risk maps should be developed to incorporate social, technical, and economic factors of vulnerability.Eruptive hazard assessment at Merapi is based on reconstructed eruptive history, on eruptive behavior and scenarios, and on existing models and preliminary numerical modeling. Firstly, the reconstructed eruptive activity, in particular for the past 7000 years and from historical accounts of eruptions, helps to define the extent and recurrence frequency of the most hazardous phenomena (Newhall et al., 2000; Camus et al., 2000). Pyroclastic flows traveled as far as 9–15 km from the source, pyroclastic surges swept the flanks as far as 9–20 km away from the vent, thick tephra fall buried temples in the vicinity of Yogyakarta 25 km to the south, and subsequent lahars spilled down the radial valleys as far as 30 km to the west and south. At least one large edifice collapse has occurred in the past 7000 years (Newhall et al., 2000; Camus et al., 2000). Secondly, four eruption scenarios are portrayed as hazardous zones on two maps and derived from the past eruptive behavior of Merapi and from the most affected areas in the past. Thirdly, simple numerical simulation, based on a Digital Elevation Model, a stereo-pair of SPOT satellite images, and one 2D-orthoimage helps to simulate pyroclastic and lahar flowage on the flanks and in radial valley channels, and to outline areas likely to be devastated.Three major threats are identified: (1) a collapse of the summit dome in the short-to mid-term, that can release large-volume pyroclastic flows and high-energy surges towards the south–southwest sector of the volcano; (2) an explosive eruption, much larger than any since 1930, may sweep all the flanks of Merapi at least once every century; (3) a potential collapse of the summit area, involving the fumarolic field of Gendol and part of the southern flank, which can contribute to moderate-scale debris avalanches and debris flows.     

Sulfur dioxide emissions from Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): case study of a high-emission rate, passively degassing erupting volcano

Popocatépetl volcano in central Mexico has been erupting explosively and effusively for almost 4 years. SO₂ emission rates from this volcano have been the largest ever measured using a COSPEC. Pre-eruptive average SO₂ emission rates (2–3 kt/d) were similar to the emission rates measured during the first part of the eruption (up to August 1995) in contrast with the effusive–explosive periods (March 1996–January 1998) during which SO₂ emission rates were higher by a factor of four (9–13 kt/d). Based on a chronology of the eruption and the average SO₂ emission rates per period, the total SO₂ emissions (up to 1 January 1998) are estimated to be about 9 Mt, roughly half as much as the SO₂ emissions from Mount Pinatubo in a shorter period. Popocatépetl volcano is thus considered as a high-emission rate, passively degassing eruptive volcano. SO₂ emission rates and SO₂ emissions are used here to make a mass balance of the erupted magma and related gases. Identified excess SO₂ is explained in terms of continuous degassing of unerupted magma and magma mixing. Fluctuations in SO₂ emission rate may be a result of convection and crystallization in the chamber or the conduits, cleaning and sealing of the plumbing system, and/or SO₂ scrubbing by the hydrothermal system.     

2010年冰岛埃亚菲亚德拉火山喷发启示录——加强我国活动火山监测与研究刻不容缓

2010年3月开始的冰岛埃亚菲亚德拉火山喷发,火山灰肆虐欧洲,迫使很多机场关闭,航班取消,对世界的空中交通造成了极大的影响。本文分析了冰岛埃亚火山的喷发机制和灾害效应,回顾了近些年来我国在活动火山监测与研究领域取得的进展和存在的不足,强调了迅速加大我国火山监测与研究工作力度的重要性。     

Volcanic hazard zonation of the Nevado de Toluca volcano,México

The Nevado de Toluca is a quiescent volcano located 20 km southwest of the City of Toluca and 70 km west of Mexico City. It has been quiescent since its last eruptive activity, dated at ∼ 3.3 ka BP. During the Pleistocene and Holocene, it experienced several eruptive phases, including five dome collapses with the emplacement of block-and-ash flows and four Plinian eruptions, including the 10.5 ka BP Plinian eruption that deposited more than 10 cm of sand-sized pumice in the area occupied today by Mexico City. A detailed geological map coupled with computer simulations (FLOW3D, TITAN2D, LAHARZ and HAZMAP softwares) were used to produce the volcanic hazard assessment. Based on the final hazard zonation the northern and eastern sectors of Nevado de Toluca would be affected by a greater number of phenomena in case of reappraisal activity. Block-and-ash flows will affect deep ravines up to a distance of 15 km and associated ash clouds could blanket the Toluca basin, whereas ash falls from Plinian events will have catastrophic effects for populated areas within a radius of 70 km, including the Mexico City Metropolitan area, inhabited by more than 20 million people. Independently of the activity of the volcano, lahars occur every year, affecting small villages settled down flow from main ravines.