The late Pleistocene pyroclastic deposits of the Campanian Plain: New insights into the explosive activity of Neapolitan volcanoes

The lithological and compositional characteristics of eighteen different pyroclastic deposits of Campanian origin, dated between 125 cal ky BP and 22 cal ky BP, were described. The pyroclastic deposits were correlated among different outcrops mainly located on the Apennine slopes that border the southern Campanian Plain. They were grouped in two main stratigraphic and chronologic intervals of regional significance: a) between Pomici di Base (22.03 cal ky BP; Somma–Vesuvius) and Campanian Ignimbrite (39 cal ky BP; Campi Flegrei) eruptions; and b) older than Campanian Ignimbrite eruption. Three new ¹⁴C AMS datings support the proposed correlations. Six eruptions were attributed to the Pomici di Base-Campanian Ignimbrite stratigraphic interval, while twelve eruptions are older than Campanian Ignimbrite. Of the studied deposits two originated from Ischia island, five are related to Campi Flegrei, and three to Somma–Vesuvius. Two eruptions have an uncertain correlation with Somma–Vesuvius or Campi Flegrei, while six eruptions remain of uncertain source. Minimum volumes of five eruptions were assessed, ranging between 0.5 km³ and 4 km³. Two of the studied deposits were correlated with Y-3 and X-5 tephra layers, which are widely dispersed in the central Mediterranean area. The new stratigraphic and chronologic data provide an upgraded chrono-stratigraphy for the explosive activity of Neapolitan volcanoes in the period between 125 and 22 cal ky BP.     

Tephrostratigraphy of the last 170 ka in sedimentary successions from the Adriatic Sea

In this study are discussed new SEM-EDS analyses performed on glass shards from five cores collected in the Central Adriatic Sea and two cores recovered from the South Adriatic Sea. A total of 26 tephra layers have been characterized and compared with the geochemical features of terrestrial deposits and other tephra archives in the area (South Adriatic Sea and Lago Grande di Monticchio, Vulture volcano). The compositions are compatible with either a Campanian or a Roman provenance. The cores, located on the Central Adriatic inner and outer shelf, recorded tephra referred to explosive events described in the literature: AP3 (sub-Plinian activity of the Somma-Vesuvius, 2710 ± 60 ¹⁴C years BP); Avellino eruption (Somma–Vesuvius, 3548 ± 129 ¹⁴C years BP); Agnano Monte Spina (Phlegrean Fields, 4100 ± 400 years BP); Mercato eruption (Somma–Vesuvius, 8010 ± 35 ¹⁴C years BP; Agnano Pomici Principali eruption (Phlegrean Fields, 10,320 ± 50 ¹⁴C years BP); Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (Phlegrean Fields, 12,100 ± 170 ¹⁴C years BP). Some of these layers were also observed in the South Adriatic core IN68-9 in addition to younger (AP2, sub-Plinian eruption, Somma–Vesuvius, 3225 ± 140 ¹⁴C years BP), and older layers (Pomici di Base eruption, Somma–Vesuvius, 18,300 ± 150 ¹⁴C years BP). Significant is the tephra record of core RF95-7 that, for the first time in the Adriatic Sea, reports the occurrence of tephra layers older than 60 ka: the well known Mediterranean tephra layers X2 (ca. 70 ka), W1 (ca. 140 ka) and V2 (Roman origin, ca. 170 ka) as well as other tephra layers attributed, on the basis of geochemistry and biostratigraphy, to explosive eruptions occurred at Vico (138 ± 2 and 151 ± 3 ka BP) and Ischia (147–140 ka BP).     

The Campanian Ignimbrite and Codola tephra layers: Two temporal/stratigraphic markers for the Early Upper Palaeolithic in southern Italy and eastern Europe

Tephra layers from archaeological sites in southern Italy and eastern Europe stratigraphically associated with cultural levels containing Early Upper Palaeolithic industry were analysed. The results confirm the occurrence of the Campanian Ignimbrite tephra (CI; ca. 40 cal ka BP) at Castelcivita Cave (southern Italy), Temnata Cave (Bulgaria) and in the Kostenki–Borshchevo area of the Russian Plain. This tephra, originated from the largest eruption of the Phlegrean Field caldera, represents the widest volcanic deposit and one of the most important temporal/stratigraphic markers of western Eurasia. At Paglicci Cave and lesser sites in the Apulia region we recognise a chemically and texturally different tephra, which lithologically, chronologically and chemically matches the physical and chemical characteristics of the Plinian eruption of Codola; a poorly known Late Pleistocene explosive event from the Neapolitan volcanoes, likely Somma–Vesuvius. For this latter, we propose a preliminary age estimate of ca. 33 cal ka BP and a correlation to the widespread C-10 marine tephra of the central Mediterranean. The stratigraphic position of both CI and Codola tephra layers at Castelcivita and Paglicci help date the first and the last documented appearance of Early Upper Palaeolithic industries of southern Italy to ca. 41–40 and 33 cal ka BP, respectively, or between two interstadial oscillations of the Monticchio pollen record – to which the CI and Codola tephras are physically correlated – corresponding to the Greenland interstadials 10–9 and 5. In eastern Europe, the stratigraphic and chronometric data seem to indicate an earlier appearance of the Early Upper Palaeolithic industries, which would predate of two millennia at least the overlying CI tephra. The tephrostratigraphic correlation indicates that in both regions the innovations connected with the so-called Early Upper Palaeolithic – encompassing subsistence strategy and stone tool technology – appeared and evolved during one of the most unstable climatic phases of the Last Glacial period. On this basis, the marked environmental unpredictability characterising this time-span is seen as a potential ecological factor involved in the cultural changes observed.     

The potential of cryptotephra and OSL dating for refining the chronology of open-air archaeological windblown sand sites: A case study from Mirkowice 33, northwest Poland

The discovery of a cryptotephra (nonvisible volcanic horizon) in a windblown sand archaeological site in Poland highlights how luminescence and tephrostratigraphy may combine to better refine the chronology of such sites. In this study we identify a cryptotephra horizon which on the basis of major and minor element geochemistry and an OSL age of 2.3 ± 0.1 ka is correlated to the Glen Garry tephra. The different methodological strengths of OSL and tephrostratigraphy may be harnessed to counter the limitations of a single approach to produce a more secure chronology. Although in this study the tephra deposition event is shown to post-date the archaeological activity, the methodological approach is clearly demonstrated. Further investigations will reveal if cryptotephra layers are commonly preserved in such environmental settings. If this is so then future applications of this approach may prove to be more widely applicable.     

A high-resolution Lateglacial–Early Holocene tephrostratigraphy from southernmost Sweden with comments on the Borrobol–Penifiler tephra complex

We present results from a cryptotephra investigation performed at a high resolution (0.5 cm) on sediments from Körslättamossen in southernmost Sweden. Six peak concentration levels were detected and extracted for geochemical analysis by electron probe microanalyser. Five of these levels were successfully analysed and we propose correlations to the Hässeldalen Tephra, the Vedde Ash, and the Laacher See Tephra (adding new analysis results for the first geochemically confirmed finding of the latter in Sweden), as well as an undetermined Borrobol-type tephra. The tephra identifications were combined with radiocarbon dated macrofossils in order to create an age model for the sampled sediments based on Bayesian methods. Stratigraphical and chronological results were found to concur with a previous study of the site and our results form the basis for discussion concerning the issues surrounding Lateglacial Borrobol-type tephras, of which we suggest further review in order to unlock these tephras’ full potential for Quaternary studies.     

A second tephra isochron for the Younger Dryas period in northern Europe: The Abernethy Tephra

Visible and non-visible (cryptotephra) volcanic ash layers are increasingly being used to underpin the chronology and high-precision correlation of sequences dating to the last glacial–interglacial transition (LGIT). As the number of sediment records analysed for tephra content rises, and methodological developments permit the detection, extraction and chemical analysis of increasingly scantily represented glass shard concentrations, greater complexity in shard count profiles is revealed. Here we present new evidence from sites in Scotland, and review published evidence from sites elsewhere in NW Europe, that indicate complexity in the eruptive history of Katla volcano during the mid-Younger Dryas and Early Holocene. We propose evidence for a previously-overlooked tephra isochron, here named the Abernethy Tephra, which is consistently found to lie close to the Younger Dryas/Holocene transition. It has a major-element chemical composition indistinguishable from that of the Vedde Ash, which was erupted from the Katla volcano at 12,121 ± 114 cal a BP. The new data suggest that Katla may have erupted again between 11,720–11,230 cal a BP and the subsequent ash fall increases the potential to assess environmental response to Holocene warming across north and west Europe.     

The Y-3 tephra: A Last Glacial stratigraphic marker for the central Mediterranean basin

The paper reviews the existing data on the Y-3 tephra layer, first recognised in the Ionian Sea (Mediterranean basin). The collection and collation of old and new data on distal tephra occurrences in terrestrial, marine and lacustrine successions indicate that the Y-3 layer is dispersed over a wide area of the central Mediterranean basin. The peculiar homogeneous chemical composition of this layer makes its recognition rather straightforward and permits it being distinguished from other stratigraphically adjacent tephras. The best age estimate for the Y-3 layer of ca 30–31 cal ka BP, its peculiar stratigraphic position close to the Marine Isotope Stage 3/2 transition or Heinrich Event 3 onset, as well as its wide dispersion makes this layer an important marker to link and date late Pleistocene terrestrial and marine archives of the central Mediterranean basin.     

Reprint of Glass compositions and tempo of post-17 ka eruptions from the Afar Triangle recorded in sediments from lakes Ashenge and Hayk,Ethiopia

Numerous volcanoes in the Afar Triangle and adjacent Ethiopian Rift Valley have erupted during the Quaternary, depositing volcanic ash (tephra) horizons that have provided crucial chronology for archaeological sites in eastern Africa. However, late Pleistocene and Holocene tephras have hitherto been largely unstudied and the more recent volcanic history of Ethiopia remains poorly constrained. Here, we use sediments from lakes Ashenge and Hayk (Ethiopian Highlands) to construct the first <17 cal ka BP tephrostratigraphy for the Afar Triangle. The tephra record reveals 21 visible and crypto-tephra layers, and our new database of major and trace element glass compositions will aid the future identification of these tephra layers from proximal to distal locations. Tephra compositions include comendites, pantellerites and minor peraluminous and metaluminous rhyolites. Variable and distinct glass compositions of the tephra layers indicate they may have been erupted from as many as seven volcanoes, most likely located in the Afar Triangle. Between 15.3−1.6 cal. ka BP, explosive eruptions occurred at a return period of <1000 years. The majority of tephras are dated at 7.5−1.6 cal. ka BP, possibly reflecting a peak in regional volcanic activity. These findings demonstrate the potential and necessity for further study to construct a comprehensive tephra framework. Such tephrostratigraphic work will support the understanding of volcanic hazards in this rapidly developing region.     

Glass compositions and tempo of post-17 ka eruptions from the Afar Triangle recorded in sediments from lakes Ashenge and Hayk,Ethiopia

Numerous volcanoes in the Afar Triangle and adjacent Ethiopian Rift Valley have erupted during the Quaternary, depositing volcanic ash (tephra) horizons that have provided crucial chronology for archaeological sites in eastern Africa. However, late Pleistocene and Holocene tephras have hitherto been largely unstudied and the more recent volcanic history of Ethiopia remains poorly constrained. Here, we use sediments from lakes Ashenge and Hayk (Ethiopian Highlands) to construct the first <17 cal ka BP tephrostratigraphy for the Afar Triangle. The tephra record reveals 21 visible and crypto-tephra layers, and our new database of major and trace element glass compositions will aid the future identification of these tephra layers from proximal to distal locations. Tephra compositions include comendites, pantellerites and minor peraluminous and metaluminous rhyolites. Variable and distinct glass compositions of the tephra layers indicate they may have been erupted from as many as seven volcanoes, most likely located in the Afar Triangle. Between 15.3−1.6 cal. ka BP, explosive eruptions occurred at a return period of <1000 years. The majority of tephras are dated at 7.5−1.6 cal. ka BP, possibly reflecting a peak in regional volcanic activity. These findings demonstrate the potential and necessity for further study to construct a comprehensive tephra framework. Such tephrostratigraphic work will support the understanding of volcanic hazards in this rapidly developing region.     

Improved age estimates for Holocene Ko-g and Ma-f~j tephras in northern Japan using Bayesian statistical modelling

The Ko-g and Ma-f~j tephras are two key isochronous marker layers in northern Japan, which are from the largest Plinian eruptions of Komagatake volcano (VEI = 5) and Mashu caldera (VEI = 6), respectively. Despite extensive radiocarbon studies associated with the two tephras, individual calibrated results show considerable variations and thus accurate ages of these important eruptions remain controversial. Bayesian statistical approaches to calibrating radiocarbon determinations have proven successful in increasing accuracy and sometimes precision for dating tephras, which is achieved through the incorporation of additional stratigraphic information and the combination of evidence from multiple records. Here we use Bayesian approaches to analyse the proximal and distal information associated with the two tephra markers. Through establishing phase and deposition models, we have taken into account all of the currently available stratigraphic and chronological information. The cross-referencing of phase models with the deposition model allows the refinement of eruption ages and the deposition model itself. Using this we are able to provide the most robust current age estimates for the two tephra layers. The Ko-g and Ma-f~j tephras are hereby dated to 6657-6505 (95.4%; 6586±40, μ±σ) cal yr BP, and 7670-7395 (95.4%; 7532±72, μ±σ) cal yr BP, respectively. These updated age determinations underpin the reported East Asian Holocene tephrostratigraphic framework, and allow sites where the tephra layers are present to be dated more precisely and accurately. Our results encourage further applications of Bayesian modelling techniques in the volcanically active East Asian region.     

Reconstruction and analysis of sub-plinian tephra dispersal during the 1530 A.D. Soufrière (Guadeloupe) eruption: Implications for scenario definition and hazards assessment

The last magmatic eruption of Soufrière of Guadeloupe dated at 1530 A.D. (Soufrière eruption) is characterized by an onset with a partial flank-collapse and emplacement of a debris-avalanche that was followed by a sub-plinian VEI 2–3 explosive short-lived eruption (Phase-1) with a column that reached a height between 9 and 12 km producing about 3.9 × 10⁶ m³ DRE (16.3 × 10⁶ m³ bulk) of juvenile products. The column recurrently collapsed generating scoriaceous pyroclastic flows in radiating valleys up to a distance of 5–6 km with a maximum interpolated bulk deposit volume of 11.7 × 10⁶ m³ (5 × 10⁶ m³ DRE). We have used HAZMAP, a numerical simple first-order model of tephra dispersal [Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. A computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31, 837–845] to reconstruct to a first approximation the potential dispersal of tephra and associated tephra mass loadings generated by the sub-plinian Phase 1 of the 1530 A.D. eruption. We have tested our model on a deterministic average dry season wind profile that best-fits the available data as well as on a set of randomly selected wind profiles over a 5 year interval that allows the elaboration of probabilistic maps for the exceedance of specific tephra mass load thresholds. Results show that in the hypothesis of a future 1530 A.D. scenario, populated areas to a distance of 3–4 km west–southwest of the vent could be subjected to a static load pressure between 2 and 10 kPa in case of wet tephra, susceptible to cause variable degrees of roof damage. Our results provide volcanological input parameters for scenario and event-tree definition, for assessing volcanic risks and evaluating their impact in case of a future sub-plinian eruption which could affect up to 70 000 people in southern Basse-Terre island and the region. They also provide a framework to aid decision-making concerning land management and development. A sub-plinian eruption is the most likely magmatic scenario in case of a future eruption of this volcano which has shown, since 1992, increasing signs of low-energy seismic, thermal, and acid degassing unrest without significant deformation.     

Deep water gravity core from the Marsili Basin (Tyrrhenian Sea) records Pleistocenic–Holocenic explosive events and instability of the Aeolian Archipelago, (Italy)

A 4.8 m long gravity core was recovered on a relative topographic high in the northern part of the Marsili Basin (southern Tyrrhenian Sea) at a water depth of 3200 m. The core was taken in order to decipher the sedimentary record of the past volcanic events of the nearby Aeolian arc. A succession of thin (2 cm to 5 cm thick) fine-grained turbidites, mainly of volcaniclastic origin, topped by hemipelagic mud layers and a number of primary tephra layers were recovered by the core. The most prominent turbidite occurs in the lower part of the core at 385 cm. It consists of a 20 cm-thick, thinning-upward, pebble to sand-sized bed.     

Advancements and best practices for analysis and correlation of tephra and cryptotephra in ice

Geochemical analysis of fine grained (<20 μm) tephra found in ice cores is inherently difficult, due to the typically low number and small size of available particles. Ice core tephra samples require specialized sample preparation techniques to maximize the amount of information that can be gained from these logistically limited samples that may provide important chronology to an ice record, as well as linking glacial, marine and terrestrial sediments. We have developed a flexible workflow for preparation of tephra and cryptotephra samples to allow accurate and robust geochemical fingerprinting, which is fundamental to tephrochronology. The samples can be prepared so that secondary electron imagery can be obtained for morphological characterization of the samples to ensure that the sample is tephra-bearing and then the sample can be further prepared for quantitative electron microprobe analysis using wavelength dispersive techniques (EMP-WDS), scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive spectrometry (SEM-EDS), laser ablation inductively coupled mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) or secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). Some samples may be too small for typical instrumentation conditions to be used (i.e. 20 μm beam on the EMP) to analyze for geochemistry and we present other techniques that can be employed to obtain accurate, although less precise, geochemistry. Methods include analyzing unpolished tephra shards less than 5 μm in diameter with a 1 μm beam on an SEM; using the “broad beam overlap” EMP method on irregular particles less than 20 μm in diameter, and analyzing microlitic shards as well as aphyric shards using EMP to increase the number of analyzed shards in low abundance tephra layers. The methods presented are flexible enough to be employed in other geological environments (terrestrial, marine and glacial) which will help maximize and integrate multiple environments into the overall tephra framework.     

A high-resolution tephrostratigraphy from Quoyloo Meadow,Orkney, Scotland: Implications for the tephrostratigraphy of NW Europe during the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition

Macro- and crypto-tephra layers deposited in European climate archives during the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition (LGIT ca. 16–8 ka) have become increasingly important as a means to robustly correlate palaeoclimate records, and to test the spatial and temporal synchronicity of climatic transitions. However, correlations between climate archives are currently limited by the number of tephra-linkages that can be made. This disparity in the observed distributions of tephras may lie with methodological limitations relating to the resolution of cryptotephra refinement within palaeoclimate records. Here we present new data from Quoyloo Meadow, Orkney Mainland, Scotland, where nine tephra horizons and ten chemically distinct tephra populations have been identified and correlated to known eruptions during the LGIT. Three of the tephras; the Hässeldalen, Hovsdalur and the Fosen are characterised and placed into a reliable tephrostratigraphy for the first time in the British Isles. The detection of new tephra layers in this case is thought to reflect modifications to the sampling approach applied here. The resulting tephrostratigraphy is used to produce an age model with centennial-scale precision, providing new age estimates for three poorly dated tephras. The chronology rivals the output of more traditionally dated radiocarbon chronologies, and illustrates the potential for tephra to develop robust age-depth models for carbonate sequences.     

The first tephra evidence for a Late Glacial explosive volcanic eruption in the Arxan-Chaihe volcanic field (ACVF), northeast China

A 5 mm thick tephra layer has been identified in the lacustrine sediments of Moon Lake in the Arxan-Chaihe volcanic field (ACVF) in Greater Khingan Mountains (NE China). The visible tephra layer is clearly revealed as a distinct peak in magnetic susceptibility measurements. The tephra layer consists mainly of brown vesicular glass shards and minor amounts of plagioclase, olivine and clinopyroxene. Major and minor element analysis has been carried out on the glass shards and plagioclase minerals. Glass shards show low concentrations of K₂O, similar to the eruptive products derived from post-Miocene volcanoes of the ACVF. The plagioclase phenocrysts in both lava and tephra from ACVF, and in the tephra recorded in Moon Lake are labradorites. During the Late Pleistocene to Holocene, there were also extensive explosive eruptions in the nearby Nuominhe volcanic field (NVF). Volcanic rocks from the ACVF are easily distinguished from those derived from the NVF, having distinctly different K₂O concentrations. This compositional variation is likely the result of different magmatic processes operating in the ACVF and NVF. Radiocarbon dating on organic materials from the lacustrine sediments dates the tephra layer to ca. 14,200 cal yrs BP, which implies that it was generated by a previously unknown Late Pleistocene explosive eruption in the ACVF. These results, for the first time, give a direct tephra record in this area, and suggest that identification of further tephra and/or cryptotephra in local sedimentary basins such as crater lakes of scoria cones and maars will be significant for dating the Late Pleistocene to Holocene volcanic eruptions and will help to establish a detailed record of the volcanic activity in the ACVF. The newly discovered tephra layer also provides a dated tephrochronological marker layer, which will in future studies provide a means to synchronise local sedimentary records of the climatically variable Late Glacial.     

Statistically coherent approach involving log-ratio transformation of geochemical data enabled tephra correlations of two late Pleistocene tephra from the eastern Adriatic shelf

Tephrostratigraphic correlations commonly rely on geochemical composition supported by additional constraints (e.g., multiple stratigraphically ordered tephra, geochronological-stratigraphical constraints, and isotopic determinations), which provide key clues to restrict the number of possible candidates and disambiguate the correlation of a specific tephra among compositionally similar volcanic sources/tephra. However, such additional data may not be available or acquirable, leaving the geochemical data as sole, but challenging viable approach. In this study, two geochronologically poorly constrained late Pleistocene tephra from the eastern Adriatic –from a sand profile on Mljet Island (M-53/2) and from a marine sediment core from Pirovac Bay (PROS 721)– were correlated to known eruptions using only geochemical data (major and trace elements of glass shards), which were treated using both log ratio transformed and raw data. After the statistical treatment of the geochemical data using bivariate plots, linear discrimination analyses and selbal algorithm, the tephra M-53/2 and PROS 721 were suitably correlated with the widespread tephra generated during the Campi Flegrei eruptions of Massereia del Monte (Y-3 marine tephra, 29.0 ± 0.8 ka) and Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (14.5 ± 0.4 ka), respectively. This study showed that the correlation was hardly tenable when using the raw data, as opposed to compositional approach, which yielded satisfactory results. As a consequence, the distribution of Massereia del Monte/Y-3 tephra extended far toward the northeast, while a better chronological model, for reconstructing the paleoenvironmental changes at the Pirovac Bay location and the Holocene sea-level dynamics, could be obtained.     

Tephra isochrons and chronologies of colonisation

This paper demonstrates the use of tephrochronology in dating the earliest archaeological evidence for the settlement of Iceland. This island was one of the last places on Earth settled by people and there are conflicting ideas about the pace and scale of initial colonisation. Three tephra layers, the Landnám (‘land-taking’) tephra layer (A.D. 877 ± 1), the Eldgjá tephra (A.D. 939) and the recently dated V-Sv tephra (A.D. 938 ± 6) can be found at 58% of 253 securely-dated early settlement sites across the country. The presence of the tephras permits both a countrywide comparison, and a classification of these settlement sites into pre-Landnám, Landnám and post-Landnám. The data summarised here for the first time indicate that it will be possible to reconstruct the tempo and development of the colonisation process in decadal resolution by more systematically utilising the dating potential of tephrochronology.     

Quantifying volcanic ash fall hazard to electricity infrastructure

Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures.     

Improved age modelling and high-precision age estimates of late Quaternary tephras,for accurate palaeoclimate reconstruction

The role of tephrochronology, as a dating and stratigraphic tool, in precise palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction, has expanded significantly in recent years. The power of tephrochronology rests on the fact that a tephra layer can stratigraphically link records at the resolution of as little as a few years, and that the most precise age for a particular tephra can be imported into any site where it is found. In order to maximise the potential of tephras for this purpose it is necessary to have the most precise and robustly tested age estimate possible available for key tephras. Given the varying number and quality of dates associated with different tephras it is important to be able to build age models to test competing tephra dates. Recent advances in Bayesian age modelling of dates in sequence have radically extended our ability to build such stratigraphic age models. As an example of the potential here we use Bayesian methods, now widely applied, to examine the dating of some key Late Quaternary tephras from Italy. These are: the Agnano Monte Spina Tephra (AMST), the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (NYT) and the Agnano Pomici Principali (APP), and all of them have multiple estimates of their true age. Further, we use the Bayesian approaches to generate a revised mixed radiocarbon/varve chronology for the important Lateglacial section of the Lago Grande Monticchio record, as a further illustration of what can be achieved by a Bayesian approach. With all three tephras we were able to produce viable model ages for the tephra, validate the proposed ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age ranges for these tephras, and provide relatively high precision age models. The results of the Bayesian integration of dating and stratigraphic information, suggest that the current best 95% confidence calendar age estimates for the AMST are 4690–4300 cal BP, the NYT 14320–13900 cal BP, and the APP 12380–12140 cal BP.     

The proximal marine record of Somma–Vesuvius volcanic activity in the Naples and Salerno bays,Eastern Tyrrhenian Sea,during the last 3 kyrs

The tephrostratigraphic analysis of nine gravity cores acquired on the continental shelf of the Naples and Salerno bays documents the proximal record of Somma–Vesuvius volcanic activity during the latest Holocene (last 3 kyrs). Five tephra layers from southern Naples Bay and three tephra layers from northern Salerno Bay were recognised in cores and their sedimentologic structures, textural parameters, stratigraphy and major and trace-element composition described.