Seismic Hazard Mapping and Microzonation in the Sikkim Himalaya through GIS Integration of Site Effects and Strong Ground Motion Attributes

The seismic ground motion hazard is mapped in the Sikkim Himalaya with local and regional site conditions incorporated through geographic information system. A strong motion network in Sikkim comprising of 9 digital accelerographs recorded more than 100 events during 1998–2002, of which 41 events are selected with signal-to-noise ratio 3 for the estimation of site response (SR), peak ground acceleration (PGA) and predominant frequency (PF) at all stations. With these and inputs from IRS-1C LISS III digital data, topo-sheets, geographical boundary of the State of Sikkim, surface geological maps, soil taxonomy map in 1:50,000 scale and seismic refraction profiles, the seismological and geological thematic maps, namely, SR, PGA, PF, lithology, soil class, %slope, drainage, and landslide layers are generated. The geological themes are united to form the basic site condition coverage of the region. The seismological themes are assigned normalized weights and feature ranks following a pair-wise comparison hierarchical approach and later integrated to evolve the seismic hazard map. When geological and seismological layers are integrated together through GIS, microzonation map is prepared. The overall site response, PGA and predominant frequency show an increasing trend in the NW–SE direction peaking at Singtam in the lesser Himalaya. As Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) is approached, the attribute value increases further. A quasi-probabilistic seismic hazard index has been proposed based on site response, peak ground acceleration and predominant frequency. Six seismic hazard zones are marked with percent probability <22%, 22–37%, 37–52%, 52–67%, 67–82%, >82% at 3 Hz and <20%, 20–34%, 34–48%, 48–61%, 61–75%, >75% at 9 Hz. In the microzonation vector layer of integrated seismological and geological themes also six major zones are mapped, with percent probability <15%, 15–31%, 31–47%, 47–63%, 63–78%, >78% at low frequency end. The maximum risk is attached to the probability greater than 78% in the Singtam and its adjoining area. These maps are generally better spatial representation of seismic hazard including site-specific analysis.     

Seismic hazard evaluation for dams in northern Colorado, U.S.A.

A seismic hazard evaluation for three dams in the Rocky Mountains of northern Colorado is based on a study of the historical seismicity. To model earthquake occurrence as a random process utilizing a maximum likelihood method, the catalog must exhibit random space-time characteristics. This was achieved using a declustering procedure and correction for completeness of recording. On the basis of the resulting a- and b-values, probabilistic epicentral distances for a 2 × 10^–5 annual probability were calculated. For a random earthquake of magnitude M _L 6.0–6.5, this distance is 15 km. Suggested ground motion parameters were estimated using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Critical peak horizontal accelerations at the dams are 0.22g if median values are assumed and 0.39g if variable attenuation and seismicity rates are taken into account. For structural analysis of the dams, synthetic acceleration time series were calculated to match the empirical response spectra. In addition, existing horizontal strong motion records from two Mammoth Lakes, California earthquakes were selected and scaled to fit the target horizontal acceleration response spectra.     

Seismic Hazard of Honduras

In this paper we have described the proceduresused, input data applied and results achieved in ourefforts to develop seismic hazard maps of Honduras.The probabilistic methodology of Cornell is employed.Numerical calculations were carried out by making useof the computer code SEISRISK III. To examine theimpact of uncertainties in seismic and structuralcharacteristics, the logic tree formalism has beenused. We compiled a de-clustered earthquake cataloguefor the region comprising 1919 earthquakes occurringduring the period from 1963 to 1997. Unified momentmagnitudes were introduced. Definition of aseismotectonic model of the whole region under review,based on geologic, tectonic and seismic information,led to the definition of seven seismogenetic zones forwhich seismic characteristics were determined. Fourdifferent attenuation models were considered. Resultsare expressed in a series of maps of expected PGA for60% and 90% probabilities of nonexceedence in a50-year interval which corresponds to return periodsof 100 and 475 years, respectively. The highest PGAvalues of about 0.4g (90% probability ofnon-exceedence) are expected along the borders withGuatemala and El Salvador.     

Estimation of Strong Ground Motion Due to Hypothetical Fault Ruptures and Comparison with Recorded Values: The Zakynthos,Western Greece Earthquake of 18 November 1997

In the present study, distribution of the seismic acceleration at base rock level has been computed for the Zakynthos (Western Greece) M_s = 6.6 earthquake of 18 November 1997, using a semi-empirical approach, taking into consideration the shape and dimension of the fault as well as the direction of the rupture propagation. Considering the geological conditions of the region under investigation and a simplifiedamplification factor, the distribution of peak ground acceleration is obtained. The results derived in this study are based on the amplification factors and velocity response spectra observed in Japan. To get more realistic results we also incorporated in our model attenuation factors obtained by using data from earthquakes in Greece. Different sets of results are compared with peak ground acceleration values recorded by instruments installed in the investigated area and the validity of the applied method is discussed.     

苏州第四纪深厚沉积层一维等效线性和非线性地震反应对比分析

合理描述土体动力本构关系对场地设计地震动参数取值的准确性有显著影响。以苏州城区200 m深的钻孔剖面为研究对象,对比分析了一维等效线性波传分析法（ELA法）和基于修正Matasovic本构模型的多自由度集中质量非线性分析法（NLA法）给出的深厚场地地震反应,研究了基岩输入地震动特性和地震基岩面的选取对深厚场地地震反应的影响。结果表明：（1）随基岩地震动强度（PGA）的增大,ELA法给出的地表PGA呈单调递增的特征,而NLA法给出的地表PGA呈先快速增大后缓慢减小或几乎不变的趋势;（2）ELA法和NLA法给出的地表加速度反应谱（Sa谱）在短周期范围内存在明显差异,ELA法对基岩高频地震动具有显著的滤波效应,而NLA法对基岩高频地震动的影响表现为随基岩PGA的增大先放大后减小的特征;（3）随地震基岩面深度的增大,地表Sa谱的谱值呈现出稍许增大的趋势,但对周期T<0.1 s部分,NLA法给出的地表Sa谱的谱值则呈现出稍许减小的现象;（4）中、大震作用下,地表地震动持时不仅与基岩地震动特性有关,还与地震反应分析方法和地震基岩面的选取密切相关,NLA法能更合理地反映基岩地震动强度和上覆土层厚度对地表地震动持时的影响。     

河口盆地非线性地震效应及设计地震动参数

针对基岩明显起伏、土层非均匀分布的典型河口盆地场地,考虑土体非线性特征,采用黏弹性人工边界模拟无限域对地震波动的影响,建立大尺度精细化二维有限元模型,分析了盆地地表地震动幅值、频谱、持时、传递函数特征,探讨了基岩起伏土层的地震动聚集效应及盆地边缘效应。结果表明：（1）盆地近地表土层表现出不同程度的地震动放大效应,且随土层深度增加呈非单调递减特征,基岩突变处地震动聚集效应明显,盆地两侧产生较为显著的边缘效应;场地中、长周期地震动的放大作用显著;（2）多遇地震、偶遇地震和罕遇地震水平时,场地卓越周期依次介于0.35～0.65 s、0.40～0.75 s和0.50～1.05 s之间;给出了盆地地表PGA（地表峰值加速度）、卓越周期均值等值线图及地表加速度反应谱放大因子建议值,地表设计地震动参数amax（地震影响系数）与Tg（特征周期）明显大于现行《建筑抗震设计规范》取值;（3）盆地特殊位置地表地震动持时得到不同幅度增长,且与输入地震动特性相关;（4）该盆地对0.5～2.0 Hz频段基岩地震动的放大效应比较显著,对小于0.2 Hz或大于2.5 Hz的基岩地震动,该盆地地震动放大效应不明显;（5）福州城区及其邻近区域地震动放大效应普遍较大。大尺度二维非线性分析一定程度上能合理反映微地形起伏、土层分布及土体非线性对地震波传播过程的影响。