Probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard of dam sites in Jordan

A Probabilistic method is used to evaluate the seismic hazard of nineteen embankment dam sites in Jordan. A line source model developed by McGuire (1978) is used in this study. An updated earthquake catalogue covering the period from 1 A.D. to 1991 A.D. is used for this purpose. This catalogue includes all earthquakes that occurred in Jordan and adjacent areas, more specifically between latitudes 27.0°–35.5° N and longitudes 32.0°–39.0° E.Nine distinct seismic sources of potential seismic activities are identified. The seismic hazard parameters are determined using the method suggested by Kijko and Sellevoll (1989).The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is selected as a measure of ground motion severity. Esteva (1974) attenuation relationship is used in evaluating PGA values at each dam site. Analysis is carried out for 50%, 90%, and 95% probability that is not being exceeded in a life time of 50, 100, and 200 years.Results of analysis indicate that PGA values are higher for dam sites closer to the Dead Sea Fault. This fault is believed to be responsible for most earthquake activities in Jordan and vicinity. The highest PGA value is found to be for Al-Karama dam site.     

Background seismicity in the Central Apennines of Italy: The Abruzzo region case study

We investigate background seismic activity of the Abruzzo region, a 5000 km² area located within the Central Apennines of Italy, where in the past 600 years at least 5 large earthquakes (I = XI–X) have occurred.Between April 2003 and September 2004, a dense temporary seismic network composed of 30 digital three-component seismic stations recorded 850 earthquakes with 0.9 < M_L < 3.7. We present earthquake locations and focal mechanisms obtained by standard procedures and an optimized velocity model computed with a search technique based on genetic algorithms.The seismicity occurs at a low and constant rate of  2.6 e− 04 events/daykm² and is sparsely distributed within the first 15 km of the crust. Minor increases in the seismicity rate are related to the occurrence of small and localised seismic sequences that occur at the tip of major active normal faults along secondary structures.We observe that during the 16 months of study period, the Fucino fault system responsible for the 1915 Fucino earthquake (M_S = 7.0), and the major normal faults of the area, did not produce significant seismic activity.Fault plane solutions evaluated using P-wave polarity data show the predominance of normal faulting mechanisms ( 55%) with NE-trending direction of extension coherent with the regional stress field active in this sector of the Apennines. Around 27% of the focal solutions have pure strike–slip mechanisms and the rest shows transtensional faulting mechanisms that mainly characterise the kinematics of the secondary structures activated by the small sequences.We hypothesize that the largest known NW-trending normal faults are presently locked and we propose that in the case of activation, the secondary structures located at their tips may act as transfer faults accommodating a minor part of the extensional deformation with strike–slip motion.     

Effect of Aftershocks on Earthquake Hazard Estimation: An Example from the North Anatolian Fault Zone

In order to investigate the effect of aftershocks on earthquake hazard estimation, earthquake hazard parameters (_m, b and M_max) have been estimated by the maximum likelihood method from the main shocks catalogue and the raw earthquakes catalogue for the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). The main shocks catalogue has been compiled from the raw earthquake catalogue by eliminating the aftershocks using the window method. The raw earthquake catalogue consisted of instrumentally detected earthquakes between 1900 and 1992, and historical earthquakes that occurred between 1000–1900. For the events of the mainshock catalogue the Poisson process is valid and for the raw earthquake catalogue it does not fit. The paper demonstrates differences in the hazard outputs if on one hand the main catalogues and on the other hand the raw catalogue is used. The maximum likelihood method which allows the use of the mixed earthquake catalogue containing incomplete (historical) and complete (instrumental) earthquake data is used to determine the earthquake hazard parameters. The maximum regional magnitude (M_max, the seismic activity rate (_m), the mean return period (R) and the b value of the magnitude-frequency relation have been estimated for the 24°–31° E, 31°–41° E, 41°–45° E sections of the North Anatolian Fault Zone from the raw earthquake catalogue and the main shocks catalogue. Our results indicate that inclusion of aftershocks changes the b value and the seismic activity rate _m depending on the proportion of aftershocks in a region while it does not significantly effect the value of the maximum regional magnitude since it is related to the maximum observed magnitude. These changes in the earthquake hazard parameters caused the return periods to be over- and underestimated for smaller and larger events, respectively.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.     

Seismic hazard assessment in Jordan and its vicinity

The earthquake hazard in Jordan and its vicinity is assessed on the basis of probabilistic methods. For this purpose, an updated earthquake catalog is compiled which covers the period between AD 1–1989. The earthquakes lie between latitudes 27.0°-35.5° N and longitudes 32.0°-39.0° E. Thirteen seismic zones are defined on a regional seismic and tectonic map presented for the area. Point-source and line-source models are used. The seismic hazard parameters, namely, theb-parameter (of the Gutenberg-Richter relation),m ₁ (the upper bound magnitude), and ₄ (the annual rate of occurrence of earthquakes with local magnitudeM _L 4.0) are calculated for each zone. The results of the seismic hazard assessment are displayed as iso-acceleration contours expected to be exceeded during typical economic life times of structures, i.e. 50 and 100 years. For each model, two seismic hazard maps are derived. In order to determine the importance of the South-eastern Mediterranean zone and the north part of the Red Sea zone from a seismic hazard point of view for Jordan, one seismic hazard map which corresponds to 50 years' economic life for every model, excluding the seismicity of these zones, is derived.     

Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Taiwan Region on the Basis of Recent Strong-Motion Data and Prognostic Zonation of Future Earthquakes

The paper describes an integrated approach to seismic hazard assessment, which was applied for the Taiwan region. First, empirical modelsfor ground motion estimation in the region were obtained on the basisof records from recent (1993-1999) earthquakes. The databaseincludes strong-motion data collected during the recent Chi-Chiearthquake (M=7.6, 21 September 1999) and large (M=6.8)aftershocks. The ground-motion database was also used for evaluationof generalised site amplification functions for typical soil classes(B, C and D). Second, the theoretical seismic catalogue (2001–2050)for the Taiwan region had been calculated using the 4D-model(location, depth, time) for dynamic deformation of the Earth' crustand 5D-model (location, depth, time, magnitude) for seismic process.The models were developed on the basis of available geophysical andgeodynamic data that include regional seismic catalogue. Third, theregion & site & time-dependent seismic analysis, which is basedon schemes of probable earthquake zones evaluated from the theoreticalcatalogue, regional ground motion models, and local site responsecharacteristics, has been performed. The seismic hazard maps arecompiled in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and ResponseSpectra (RS) amplitudes. The maps show distribution of amplitudesthat will not be exceeded with certain probability in condition oftypical soil classes during all possible earthquakes that may occur inthe region during time period of 2003–2025. The approach allowsintroducing new parameter that describes dependency of seismichazard on time, so-called 'period of maximum hazard'. Theparameter shows the period, during which every considered sitewill be subjected by the maximum value of ground motioncharacteristic (PGA or RS).     

Estimation of Tsunami Risk for the Coasts of Peru and Northern Chile

Data for tsunamigenic earthquakes and observed tsunami run-up are used to estimate tsunami-risk for the coasts of Peru and northern Chile for zones bounded by 5–35° S latitude. Tsunamigenic earthquake estimates yield magnitudes of 8.52, 8.64, and 8.73 for recurrence periods of 50, 100, and 200 years, respectively. Based on three different empirical relations between earthquake magnitudes and tsunamis, we estimate expected tsunami wave heights for various return periods. The average heights were 11.2 m (50 years), 13.7 m (100 years), and 15.9 m (200 years), while the maximum height values (obtained by Iidas method) were: 13.9, 17.3, and 20.4 m, respectively. Both the averaged and maximum seismological estimates of tsunami wave heights for this region are significantly smaller than the actually observed tsunami run-up of 24–28 m, for the major events of 1586, 1724, 1746, 1835, and 1877. Based directly on tsunami run-up data, we estimate tsunami wave heights of 13 m for a 50-year return period and 25 m for a 100-year return period. According to the seismic gap theory, we can expect that the next strong earthquake and tsunami will occur between 19 and 28° S in the vicinity of northern Chile.     

A Study of Seismicity and Earthquake Hazard at the Proposed Kalabsha Dam Site,Aswan, Egypt

High and Aswan Dams Authority (HADA) proposed a plan aiming at constructing a rockfill dam in the Kalabsha area, about 60 km south of Aswan High Dam. The aim of this dam is to restrain the overflow of water to the Kalabsha Valley for keeping one billion cubic meters from being lost due to seepage and evaporation. The safety of dams during earthquakes is extremely important because failure of such a structure may have disastrous consequences on life and property. Therefore, different factors were considered as part of a site assessment. Five seismic source zones, close enough to the site to give rise to potentially damaging earthquake ground motions, were identified. Seven active faults that have the potential for producing significant earthquakes and that pass through or near the dam site were also identified. The earthquake loading represented by ground motions at the site was evaluated. Probabilistic seismic hazard procedures were used for assessing the earthquake loading at six individual sites using Area-and Line-Source Models (ASM & LSM). The ASM is based on current observed seismicity, whereas the LSM is based on geological slip rates. The output represents the expected acceleration amplitude with 90 percent probability of not being exceeded in exposure times of 20, 50, and 100 years. The results from the two models appear to be different, the expected ground motions from ASM were twice as high as expected from LSM. This difference is due to the load of the Aswan reservoir (Nasser Lake) triggering earthquakes on those parts of the faults that lie under the lake at Kalabsha area. The hazard at the selected sites is given by the hazard curve that is represented by the relationship between the peak ground acceleration and its annual exceedance probability. By comparing the curves for the six individual sites for the same source model, it can be concluded that the potential ground acceleration level for all the sites is almost the same. Considering the mean results from the two models, the annual exceedance probability of the expected ground acceleration from ASM is approximately ten times higher than the annual exceedance probability from LSM.Since ASM is based on current seismicity, it is more appropriate forrepresenting the actual hazard for the dam site.     

Estimation of earthquake hazard parameters for incomplete and uncertain data files

The maximum likelihood estimation of earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitudem _max, activity rate , and theb parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter distribution) is extended to the cases of incomplete and uncertain data. The method accepts mixed data containing only large (extreme) events and a variable quality of complete data with different threshold magnitude values. Uncertainty of earthquake magnitude is specified by two values, the lower and upper magnitude limits. It is assumed that such an interval contains the real unknown magnitude. The proposed approach allows the combination of different quality catalog parts, e.g. those where the assignment of magnitude is questionable and those with magnitudes precisely determined.As an illustration of the method, the seismic hazard analysis for western Norway and adjacent sea area (4–8°E, 58–64°N) is presented on the basis of the strongest earthquakes felt during the period 1831–1889 and three complete catalog parts, covering the period 1890–1987.Paper presented at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission held in Sofia, 1988.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland.     

Active fault segmentation and seismic hazard in Hoa-Binh reservoir, Vietnam

Based on remote sensing, geological data, geomorphologic analysis, and field observations, we determine the fault system which is a potential source of earthquakes in Hoa-Binh reservoir. It is the sub-meridian fault system composed of fault segments located in the central part of the eastern and western flanks of the Quaternary Hoa-Binh Graben: the Hoa-Binh 1 fault is east-dipping (75–80°), N-S trending, 4 km long, situated in the west of the Hoa-Binh Graben, and the Hoa-Binh 2 is a west-dipping (75–80°), N-S trending; 8.4 km long fault, situated in the east of the Hoa-Binh Graben. The slip rate of normal fault in Hoa-Binh hydropower dam was estimated at 0.3–1.1 mm/yr. The Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) in the Hoa-Binh hydropower dam have been assessed. The estimated MCE of HB.1 and HB.2 is 5.6 and 6.1 respectively, and the maximum PGA at Hoa-Binh dam is 0.30 g and 0.40 g, respectively. The assessment of seismic hazard in Hoa-Binh reservoir is a typical example of seismic hazards of a large dam constructed in an area of low seismicity and lack of law of seismic attenuation.     

Extreme Earthquake and Earthquake Perceptibility Study in Greece and its Surrounding Area

The sample interval for the selection of extreme magnitudes plays an important part in the quality of Gumbel model fitting. A short sample interval can produce many observations, which is helpful in obtaining a reliably fitting model. However a short sample interval can bring many dummy ``observations', a condition which adversely biases the fitting. The short sample interval also increases the chance to introduce non-independent observations as well, which violates a basic requirement of the Gumbel model. On the other hand, a large time interval not only reduces the number of observations, but also enlarges the observation error. Thus, for Greece, the most suitable parameters of the third Gumbel extreme model are obtained by using a sample interval which produces minimum error. In consideration of the reliability of the seismic data, earthquakes with magnitude M 5.5 in Greece and its surrounding region after 1900 are used mainly in the present paper. In order to obtain well resolved contour maps with smooth changes a 2°× 2° cell with half-degree overlap strategy was used to scan the region. The most expected largest earthquake for the next fifty, one hundred and two hundred years are estimated for each cell. Likewise, the events with magnitude at a probability of 90\% of non-exceedance over the next fifty, one hundred and two hundred years are estimated for each cell. In parallel to this procedure we also analyze the 67 shallow seismic zones outlined by Papazachos and his colleagues and detail individual zone results where these are obtained. The most perceptible earthquake magnitude for the range of intensities I = {VI}, VII and VIII are also calculated. All results show that the areas around the Hellenic Arc and the Cephalonia Transform Fault for Greece have comparatively high frequency of destructive earthquakes accompanied by a high occurrence probability of moderate earthquakes (M 5.5).     

Seismic Hazard Mapping and Microzonation in the Sikkim Himalaya through GIS Integration of Site Effects and Strong Ground Motion Attributes

The seismic ground motion hazard is mapped in the Sikkim Himalaya with local and regional site conditions incorporated through geographic information system. A strong motion network in Sikkim comprising of 9 digital accelerographs recorded more than 100 events during 1998–2002, of which 41 events are selected with signal-to-noise ratio 3 for the estimation of site response (SR), peak ground acceleration (PGA) and predominant frequency (PF) at all stations. With these and inputs from IRS-1C LISS III digital data, topo-sheets, geographical boundary of the State of Sikkim, surface geological maps, soil taxonomy map in 1:50,000 scale and seismic refraction profiles, the seismological and geological thematic maps, namely, SR, PGA, PF, lithology, soil class, %slope, drainage, and landslide layers are generated. The geological themes are united to form the basic site condition coverage of the region. The seismological themes are assigned normalized weights and feature ranks following a pair-wise comparison hierarchical approach and later integrated to evolve the seismic hazard map. When geological and seismological layers are integrated together through GIS, microzonation map is prepared. The overall site response, PGA and predominant frequency show an increasing trend in the NW–SE direction peaking at Singtam in the lesser Himalaya. As Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) is approached, the attribute value increases further. A quasi-probabilistic seismic hazard index has been proposed based on site response, peak ground acceleration and predominant frequency. Six seismic hazard zones are marked with percent probability <22%, 22–37%, 37–52%, 52–67%, 67–82%, >82% at 3 Hz and <20%, 20–34%, 34–48%, 48–61%, 61–75%, >75% at 9 Hz. In the microzonation vector layer of integrated seismological and geological themes also six major zones are mapped, with percent probability <15%, 15–31%, 31–47%, 47–63%, 63–78%, >78% at low frequency end. The maximum risk is attached to the probability greater than 78% in the Singtam and its adjoining area. These maps are generally better spatial representation of seismic hazard including site-specific analysis.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard at the archaeological site of Gol Gumbaz in Vijayapura,south India

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is carried out for the archaeological site of Vijayapura in south India in order to obtain hazard consistent seismic input ground-motions for seismic risk assessment and design of seismic protection measures for monuments, where warranted. For this purpose the standard Cornell-McGuire approach, based on seismogenic zones with uniformly distributed seismicity is employed. The main features of this study are the usage of an updated and unified seismic catalogue based on moment magnitude, new seismogenic source models and recent ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in logic tree framework. Seismic hazard at the site is evaluated for level and rock site condition with 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, and the corresponding peak ground accelerations (PGAs) are 0.074 and 0.142 g, respectively. In addition, the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the site are compared to the Indian code-defined spectrum. Comparisons are also made with results from National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA 2010), in terms of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations (PSAs) at T = 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 1.25 s for 475- and 2475-yr return periods. Results of the present study are in good agreement with the PGA calculated from isoseismal map of the Killari earthquake, \({\hbox {M}}_{\mathrm{w}} = 6.4\) (1993). Disaggregation of PSHA results for the PGA and spectral acceleration (\({\hbox {S}}_{\mathrm{a}}\)) at 0.5 s, displays the controlling scenario earthquake for the study region as low to moderate magnitude with the source being at a short distance from the study site. Deterministic seismic hazard (DSHA) is also carried out by taking into account three scenario earthquakes. The UHS corresponding to 475-yr return period (RP) is used to define the target spectrum and accordingly, the spectrum-compatible natural accelerograms are selected from the suite of recorded accelerograms.     

The Gibraltar Arc seismogenic zone (part 2): Constraints on a shallow east dipping fault plane source for the 1755 Lisbon earthquake provided by tsunami modeling and seismic intensity

The Great Lisbon earthquake has the largest documented felt area of any shallow earthquake and an estimated magnitude of 8.5–9.0. The associated tsunami ravaged the coast of SW Portugal and the Gulf of Cadiz, with run-up heights reported to have reached 5–15 m. While several source regions offshore SW Portugal have been proposed (e.g.— Gorringe Bank, Marquis de Pombal fault), no single source appears to be able to account for the great seismic moment as well as all the historical tsunami amplitude and travel time observations. A shallow east dipping fault plane beneath the Gulf of Cadiz associated with active subduction beneath Gibraltar, represents a candidate source for the Lisbon earthquake of 1755.Here we consider the fault parameters implied by this hypothesis, with respect to total slip, seismic moment, and recurrence interval to test the viability of this source. The geometry of the seismogenic zone is obtained from deep crustal studies and can be represented by an east dipping fault plane with mean dimensions of 180 km (N–S) × 210 km (E–W). For 10 m of co-seismic slip an Mw 8.64 event results and for 20 m of slip an Mw 8.8 earthquake is generated. Thus, for convergence rates of about 1 cm/yr, an event of this magnitude could occur every 1000–2000 years. Available kinematic and sedimentological data are in general agreement with such a recurrence interval. Tsunami wave form modeling indicates a subduction source in the Gulf of Cadiz can partly satisfy the historical observations with respect to wave amplitudes and arrival times, though discrepancies remain for some stations. A macroseismic analysis is performed using site effect functions calculated from isoseismals observed during instrumentally recorded strong earthquakes in the region (M7.9 1969 and M6.8 1964). The resulting synthetic isoseismals for the 1755 event suggest a subduction source, possibly in combination with an additional source at the NW corner of the Gulf of Cadiz can satisfactorily explain the historically observed seismic intensities. Further studies are needed to sample the turbidites in the adjacent abyssal plains to better document the source region and more precisely calibrate the chronology of great earthquakes in this region.     

A robust satellite technique for monitoring seismically active areas: The case of Bhuj–Gujarat earthquake

A robust satellite data analysis technique (RAT) has been recently proposed as a suitable tool for satellite TIR surveys in seismically active regions and already successfully tested in different cases of earthquakes (both high and medium–low magnitudes).In this paper, the efficiency and the potentialities of the RAT technique have been tested even when it is applied to a wide area with extremely variable topography, land coverage and climatic characteristics (the whole Indian subcontinent). Bhuj–Gujarat's earthquake (occurred on 26th January 2001, M_S  7.9) has been considered as a test case in the validation phase, while a relatively unperturbed period (no earthquakes with M_S ≥ 5, in the same region and in the same period) has been analyzed for confutation purposes. To this aim, 6 years of Meteosat-5 TIR observations have been processed for the characterization of the TIR signal behaviour at each specific observation time and location.The anomalous TIR values, detected by RAT, have been evaluated in terms of time–space persistence in order to establish the existence of actually significant anomalous transients. The results indicate that the studied area was affected by significant positive thermal anomalies which were identified, at different intensity levels, not far from the Gujarat coast (since 15th January, but with a clearer evidence on 22nd January) and near the epicentral area (mainly on 21st January). On 25th January (1 day before Gujarat's earthquake) significant TIR anomalies appear on the Northern Indian subcontinent, showing a remarkable coincidence with the principal tectonic lineaments of the region (thrust Himalayan boundary).On the other hand, the results of the confutation analysis indicate that no meaningful TIR anomalies appear in the absence of seismic events with M_S ≥ 5.     

Source parameters of the ML 4.1 earthquake of November 08, 2006, southeast Beni-Suef, northern Egypt

In the early morning hours on Wednesday November 08, 2006 at 04:32:10(GMT) a small earthquake of M_L 4.1 has occurred at southeast Beni-Suef, approximately 160 km SEE of Cairo, northern Egypt. The quake has been felt as far as Cairo and its surroundings while no casualties were reported. The instrumental epicentre is located at 28.57°N and 31.55°E. Seismic moment is 1.76 E14 Nm, corresponding to a moment magnitude M_w 3.5. Following a Brune model, the source radius is 0.3 km with an average dislocation of 1.8 cm and a 2.4 MPa stress drop. The source mechanism from a first motion fault plane solution shows a left-lateral strike-slip mechanism with a minor dip-slip component along fault NNW striking at 161°, dipping 52° to the west and rake −5°. Trend and plunging of the maximum and minimum principle axes P/T are 125°, 28°, 21°, and 23°, respectively. A comparison with the mechanism of the October, 1999 event shows similarities in faulting type and orientation of nodal planes.Eight small earthquakes (3.0  M_L < 5.0) were also recorded by the Egyptian National Seismological Network (ENSN) from the same region. We estimate the source parameters and fault mechanism solutions (FMS) for these earthquakes using displacement spectra and P-wave polarities, respectively. The obtained source parameters including seismic moments of 4.9 × 10¹²–5.04 × 10¹⁵ Nm, stress drops of 0.2–4.9 MPa and relative displacement of 0.1–9.1 cm. The azimuths of T-axes determined from FMS are oriented in NNE–SSW direction. This direction is consistent with the present-day stress field in Egypt and the last phase of stress field changes in the Late Pleistocene, as well as with recent GPS measurements.     

Seismic input at the archaeological site of Kancheepuram in Southern India

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at Kancheepuram in Southern India was carried out with the scope of defining the seismic input for the vulnerability assessment of historical and monumental structures at the site, in terms of horizontal Uniform Hazard Spectra and a suite of spectrum-compatible natural accelerograms to perform time-history analysis. The standard Cornell?CMcGuire and a zone-free approach have been used for hazard computations after the compilation of a composite earthquake catalogue for Kancheepuram. Epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard was addressed within a logic-tree framework. Deaggregation of the seismic hazard for the peak ground acceleration shows low seismicity at Kancheepuram controlled by weak-to-moderate earthquakes with sources located at short distances from the archaeological site. Suites of natural accelerograms recorded on rock have been selected by imposing a custom-defined compatibility criterion with the probabilistic spectra. The site of Kancheepuram is characterized by a seismicity controlled by weak-to-moderate earthquakes with sources at short distances from the site, the PGA expected for 475- and 2,475-year return period are, respectively, 0.075 and 0.132?g. The Indian code-defined spectra (DBE and MCE) tend to underestimate spectral ordinates at low periods. On the other hand, the PGA are comparable and the spectral ordinates for longer periods from the probabilistic study are significantly lower.     

Modeling of strong ground motions for 1991 Uttarkashi, 1999 Chamoli earthquakes, and a hypothetical great earthquake in Garhwal–Kumaun Himalaya

In this study, stochastic finite fault modeling is used to simulate Uttarkashi (1991) and Chamoli (1999) earthquakes using all available source, path, and site parameters available for the region. These two moderate earthquakes are recorded at number of stations of a strong motion network. The predicted peak ground accelerations at these stations are compared with the observed data and the ground motion parameters are constrained. The stress drop of Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes is constrained at 77 and 65?bars, respectively, whereas the quality factor Q _C is 112 $ f^{0.97} $ and 149 $ f^{0.95} $ for these two regions. The high-frequency attenuation parameter Kappa is in the range 0.04?C0.05. The constrained ground motion parameters are then used to simulate Mw 8.5 earthquake in central seismic gap region of Himalaya. Two scenarios are considered with epicenter of future great earthquake at locations of Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes using above constrained parameters. The most vulnerable towns are the towns of Dehradun and Almora where expected PGA is in excess of 600?cm/s² at V_S30 520?m/s when the epicenter of the great earthquake is at the location of Uttarkashi (1991) earthquake. The towns of Shimla and Chandigarh can expect PGA close to 200?cm/s². Whereas when the epicenter of the great earthquake is at the location of Chamoli (1999) earthquake, the towns of Dehradun and Almora can expect PGA of around 500 and 400?cm/s², respectively, at V_S30 620?m/s. The National Capital Region, Delhi can expect accelerations of around 80?cm/s² in both the cases. The PGA contour maps obtained in this study can be used to assess the seismic hazard of the region and identify vulnerable areas in and around central Himalaya from a future great earthquake.     

日本大震与中国及邻区中强地震的遥相关

将日本从北至南划分为5个区, 分析1900—2011年3月共110 a期间发生的67个M_s＝6.9~9.0大震事件, 与其后4 a在中国及邻区发生的M_s≥6.0(极个别为M_s=5.5~5.8)共569个中强地震的对应比较.得出结论: (1)日本大震和中国及邻区中强震二者有很好的遥相关关系; (2)分析了日本各区与中国及邻区地震相对应的特点; (3)中国地区地震的滞后时间多为0.5~2.0 a, 最长4 a; (4)用"遥相关法"预测2011—2013年期间, 中国及邻区的中强地震危险区.年度预测与实际发生地震检验结果显示: 预测的34个次地震危险区中, "报对"28个次, 约占总预测个次的82%, "虚报"6个次, 约占18%, 显示"遥相关法"对年度地震预测有一定效果; (5)提出"蜘蛛网"逆反应模型解释中国及邻区对日本大震的响应现象.      

The February 11, 2004 Dead Sea earthquake ML = 5.2 in Jordan and its tectonic implication

A moderate-sized (M_w  5.3) earthquake occurred in the Dead Sea basin on February 11, 2004. A rigorous seismological analysis of the main shock and numerous aftershocks suggests that seismogenic structure was a secondary, antithetic fault within the Dead Sea fault system. The main shock is well located using all available regional seismic stations, and 43 aftershocks were precisely located relative to the main shock using a double difference algorithm. The first motion, focal mechanism for this earthquake demonstrates NNW–SSE and ENE–WSW striking nodal planes, and the aftershocks distribution is consistent with the latter — indicating a right-lateral sense of displacement. This orientation and sense of shear are consistent with similarly oriented geological faults around the Dead Sea basin — these structures are likely antithetic faults within the transform system. Although moderate in size, earthquakes that occur very close to the large Dead Sea fault system warrant consideration in the earthquake hazard assessment of the region: For example, owing to the proximity to the main fault, moderate earthquakes such as this may produce static changes in Coulomb stress along the main fault.