天山乌一号冰川物质平衡特征的统计分析

利用天山乌鲁木齐河源一号冰川物质平衡的多年观测资料,通过数学统计方法提取主成分,获得影响该冰川物质平衡的主要因素,通过成分矩阵的旋转获得表示冰川物质平衡特征的两个主因子,其中第一主因子为影响冰川物质平衡的常年因子,代表该冰川的多年持续变化方向与趋势,第二主因子为影响冰川物质平衡的年际因子,代表该冰川在平衡年内的物质平衡变化特征。常年因子的持续下降反映了冰川持续后退的现实,年际因子在上世纪80年代中期以后突然强劲上升,实际上是冰川物质平衡水平提高,平衡年内积累量和消融量都增加的表现,清晰地指示了西北地区气候由暖干向暖湿的转型。常年因子是冰川物质平衡变化的主导因子,控制了冰川变化的方向。常年因子具有较好的周期性,以6年周期最为明显,但其形成原因尚不明。年际因子周期性不明显,但可以看出其周期与太阳黑子变化具有相关性,同时受到常年因子的影响。     

过去44年乌鲁木齐河源一号冰川物质平衡结果及其过程研究

通过1997—2003年度天山乌鲁木齐河源一号冰川物质平衡的观测结果,分析比较了过去44年间一号冰川物质平衡、累积物质平衡的变化过程,以及反映气候一地形要素和冰川发育条件要素的平衡线高度和冰川积累区比率,认为一号冰川负平衡波动期随时间推移而递增,目前处于其观测历史上物质平衡亏损最为强烈的时期。     

山地冰川物质平衡线与气候

在总结前人确定山地冰川物质平衡线高度的各种方法基础上,对利用山地冰川物质平衡线进行古气候恢复的方法进行探讨。以我国乌鲁木齐河流域一号冰川为例,运用侧碛垄最大高度法确定了小冰期第二次冰进时冰川的平衡线高度,依靠1960年代以来该冰川所积累的大量观测资料,建立和完善现代冰川平衡线高度与气候统计关系公式,并通过变化应用到该冰川小冰期第二次冰进。给出了该次冰进时气候的半定量推算结果。     

水文气象学方法计算喜马拉雅山北坡冰川流域物质平衡

卡鲁雄曲是喜马拉雅that坡唯一具有长期常规水文气象观测资料的冰川流域.根据中国冰川水文和气候的分布特征,可推导出一组以水文、气象观测数据计算流域冰川平均物质平衡的公式.据此恢复了1983-2006年卡鲁雄曲流域冰川平均物质平衡各分量的逐年值序列,并用SPSS软件对计算结果进行r统计分析.结果表明:1983-2006年的24 a里,卡鲁雄曲流域的冰川消融逐步加剧:多年平均值为-136.3 mm/a,前12 a(1983-1994年)多年平均值为-83.61 mm/a,后12 a(1995-2006年)多年平均值为-188.98 mm/a,且1986、1998和2005年出现较大的波动,冰川物质平衡值分别为:149.19mm、-654.36 mm和-316.43 mm.通过对影响冰川物质平衡动态变化的影响因素进行分析,发现冰川物质平衡变化主要由强烈消融期(5-9月)的平均温度决定,二者的相关系数达到-0.786,并具有很好的线性关系:MB=-331.8T_(5-9)+2683.5.     

南极乔治王岛柯林斯冰帽小冰穹物质平衡特征的初步分析

柯林斯冰帽小冰穹属于冷季补给型冰川。该冰穹高差不大，但末端比顶部的消融期长两个月；暖季消融随高度上升迅速递减。冷季积累随高度的变化显著。ＳＤＳ断面１９９１／１９９２年度物质平衡差额为１６３ｍｍ，零平衡线海拔高度为１４０ｍ，比动力平衡线低２０ｍ。其物质平衡特征表现为物质平衡梯度较大，而物质平衡水平较低，稳定性系数较小，反映了亚极地海洋性气候下冰川物质平衡的特有性质     

气候变暖对新疆降水和径流影响分析

全球气候变暖对新疆气候产生了较大的影响，在升温的背景下从20世纪80年代以来本区的降水量、冰川储量、地表径流、地下水资源发生了较大的变化：全区降水总量增加，冰川物质平衡以负平衡为主，局部地区地表径流量明显增加。对比分析不同地区降水量的变化情况，发现新疆不同地区的降水量变化情况存在明显差异，且尚难判断全区降水量是否有稳定增加的趋势。通过对已有资料的分析计算，对比冰川加速消融和降水量增加对本区地表径流增大的贡献，表明引起局部地区地表径流显著增加的主要原因是冰川加速消融。气候变暖打乱了本地的水平衡，使本地洪水和干旱灾害有加剧趋势。     

天山冰川消融参数化能量平衡模型

本文运用在天山乌鲁木齐河源的冰川能量平衡观测和常规气象站观测要素，建立了冰川消融参数化能量平衡模型。以日照、日平均气温、低云量、水汽压和风速为模型基本输入因子，模拟计算和讨论了消融期冰川表面辐射平衡和能量平衡。     

横断山区典型海洋型冰川物质平衡研究

玉龙雪山发育着对气候变化响应极为敏感的典型海洋型冰川。基于2008-2013年共5个物质平衡年观测数据,对玉龙雪山规模最大的白水1号冰川物质平衡特征进行分析,为评估横断山区气候和冰川变化之间的关系奠定基础。结果表明：2008-2013年白水1号冰川物质平衡最大值仅为-907 mm w.e.,最小值则达到-1872 mm w.e.。2008年冰川平衡线高度为4972 m,2009-2013年白水1号冰川积累区近乎消失。白水1号冰川积累期主要集中于10月至次年5月,6-9月为强消融期,积累量几乎为零,消融量占全年80%,属冬春季积累型冰川。2008-2009、2011-2012和2012-2013年平均物质平衡梯度为1230 mm w.e. （100 m）^-1,消融期物质平衡梯度小于年物质平衡梯度,消融期初与消融期末物质平衡梯度小于100 mm w.e.（100 m）^-1。     

中国西部大陆性冰川与海洋性冰川物质平衡变化及其对气候响应——以乌源1号冰川和帕隆94号冰川为例

为认识全球变暖背景下中国西部大陆性冰川与海洋性冰川物质平衡变化及其对气候响应,本研究以天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川和藏东南帕隆94号冰川为例,结合大西沟与察隅站气象资料,对1980 — 2015年两条冰川的物质平衡变化特征及差异进行了分析。结果表明：36 a来乌源1号冰川与帕隆94号冰川物质平衡总体上均呈下降趋势,累积物质平衡达-17102与-8159 mm w.e.,相当于冰川厚度减薄19与9.01 m,且分别于1996、2004年左右发生突变。同期两条冰川所处区域年均温呈显著上升趋势,而降水量却表现出不同的变化态势;二者年内气温分配相仿,但降水分配差异较大。初步分析认为气温上升是导致乌源1号冰川与帕隆94号冰川物质亏损的主要原因,冰川区气温和降水变化幅度的差异和地性因子（坡度、冰川面积）的不同使得乌源1号冰川对气候变化响应的敏感性高于帕隆94号冰川,由于目前海洋性冰川物质平衡监测时段相对较短,为深入研究中国西部冰川物质平衡变化及过程仍需加强对冰川的持续观测。     

冰川

P343。3 2003043005乌备木齐河源区气候变化和l号冰川40a观测事实二Asummary of 40一year observed variatlon faets of elimate and Gla-eier No.1 at headwater of Urumqi:iver,Tianshan,China/李忠勤,韩添丁,二//冰川冻土一2003,25(2)一117一123 研究结果表明,20世纪90年代中期以来,乌鲁木齐河源区处于一个最为显著的暖湿阶段.1958一2000年的42a间,1号冰川年平均物质平衡量为一188 6mm.累积物质平衡量达到一7925mm.1962年至今,冰川表面运动速度减缓,l号冰川年融水径流量有增加趋势.气温持续升高,冰川冷储减少可能是导致冰川加速消融的…     

Climate， mass balance and glacial changes on small dome of Collins Ice Cap， King George Island， Antarctica

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SURFACE MASS BALANCE AND ITS VARIATION ON THE MIZUHO PLATEAU, ANTARCTICA IN 1987-1988

From the surface mass accumulation data in year of 1987/88, the distribution and variation of annual mass balance on Mizuho Plateau are discussed. The authors also analyze the effects of shortterm climatic and topographical variations on the mass balance. It is found that there are some differences in spatial distribution and annual average state in the year of 1987/88 and other years. Ia the area at elevation lower than 550 m near the coast, the mass balance appears to be negative. The annual mass balance over 80 km distance from S_(16) to inland is 0.84m snow depth. A low mass balance zone from 80 km site to Mizuho Station, is considered to be only 0.14 m snow depth. It is found from the comparison of mass balances that the mass-balance level on the glaciers in West China is 9 times higher than that on Mizuho Plateau, where the massbalance level appears to be low accumulative and low expensive, but inverse in middle and low latitude regions, such as on glaciers in West China. The effects of short-term     

气候与地表覆被变化对梭磨河流域水文影响的分析

分析了1960～1990年长江上游梭磨河流域气候和地表覆被变化及其对流域水文的影响。30年来，流域降水有所增加，有林地面积1957～1974年大幅下降，以后有所回升。有林地每公顷蓄积量由1957年的423m^3下降到1998年的177m^3，40年来林地质量不断下降，流域水文发生了明显的变化；年均流量自1972年以来不断上升，洪水频率、洪峰流量和土壤侵蚀模糊明显增加。     

Measurement and Estimative Models of Glacier Mass Balance in China

Attributed to high altitude and inland location, the glaciers in China are characterized by very low temperature. The non-negligible contribution of up to 25% of superimposed ice to the net balance has been taken into account in the mass budget calculation. So too has the internal the accumulation in the infiltration zone of the accumulation area.
The prevailing monsoon climate delivers most of the annual precipitation over glaciated areas of China in the summer, making the major accumulation on those glaciers coincide with the ablation period. Therefore, the annual mass balance should be calculated neither by giving the place of annual accumulation to winter balance, nor annual ablation to summer balance. Rather, it is better done by net accumulation and net ablation during the year. In order to get the annual accumulation and the annual ablation on a glacier, the summer precipitation should be measured at the same time.
Frequent snowfall in the summer season results in intensive fluctuation of surface albedo. This means that, for lack of data on the extremes of ablation, reconstruction of mass balance is unsatisfactory when based on the relationships of accumulation and ablation to precipitation and temperature. The establishment of models, either on the relationship of multi-year mass balance to the equilibrium line and the mass balance gradient of a glacier in steady-state, or on the maximum entropy principle and the hydrometeorological data, helps to estimate the multi-year mass balance of the glacierized area in a mountain range or drainage basin.     

Recent decay of a single palsa in relation to weather conditions between 1996 and 2000 in Laivadalen, northern Sweden

This study presents the decay of a small palsa complex between 1996 and 2000 in Sweden's southernmost major palsa bog. The outline of the palsa was mapped during three summers in 1996, 1999 and 2000 and an automatic weather station measured air temperature, precipitation, snow depth, wind speed and wind direction between 1997 and 2000. The decay of the palsa was enormous in the dome–shaped part of the palsa complex: the height decreased during the observation period from 2.3 m to 0.5 m. In 2000, the palsa dome had almost totally disappeared: only some peat blocks in a palsa pond were left. The decay of the palsa was complex with a number of degradational processes, of which the main processes were block erosion, thermokarst and wind erosion. Thermal melting has occurred along the edges of the palsa and possibly below the frozen core of the palsa since 1998/99. Wind erosion was observed during summer and the maximum estimated deflation was 80 cm. The decay of the palsa dome was especially large between 1999 and 2000, probably due to a high mean annual temperature, high summer precipitation and the warming influence of the large pond surrounding the palsa. The present climate in the palsa bog with a mean annual temperature of −0.8°C is not favourable for palsa development and maintenance, despite a strong wind regime which can provide suitable conditions for snowdrift.     

喀什地区降水(雨雪)的日变化特征

利用2010—2017年1～12月新疆喀什地区10个气象站逐小时降水资料,分析统计喀什地区近8 a降雨雪(以下统称降水)日变化特征。结果表明:(1)喀什地区全年降水量和降水频次日变化存在明显的波动,总体上呈现"正弦波"一峰一谷特征,降水量峰值出现在03:00(北京时,下同),谷值出现在18:00;降水频次峰值出现在04:00,谷值出现在18:00;两者峰谷值出现时间接近。(2) 2010—2017年喀什地区全年降水量和降水频次呈明显的增加趋势;而降水强度年际变化趋于平缓,无明显变化。(3)降水强度日变化趋势与降水量、降水频次并不存在一致性。(4)喀什地区全年降水主要以短时段降水为主,其中,持续1 h降水次数为最大值,但降水量和贡献率最大值却同出现在2 h和6 h持续降水中。全年降水主要以后半夜和上午开始的降水过程为主导,且仍主要为短时段降水。     

The processes and characteristics of mass balance on the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 during 1958–2009

As a solid reservoir, a glacier can regulate regional water resources. The annual net mass balance directly reflects the fluctuation of the glacier and climate variability. Based on 51 years of mass balance observation data, the mass balance of Tianshan Mountains Urumqi Glacier No. 1 experienced a nine times positive balance fluctuation and nine times negative balance fluctuation. There were 35 and 16 negative and positive balance years, respectively. From 1996/97 to 2008/09, 12 consecutive negative balance years were observed at Tianshan Mountains Urumqi Glacier No. 1. These results demonstrate that the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 is experiencing a strong negative balance, and the strongest negative balance, -931 mm w.e. (mm water equivalent), during the observation period occurred in 2008. In addition, the cumulative mass balance reached 13,709 mm w.e. in 2008. However, in 2009, the mass balance was positive at 63 mm w.e. The equilibrium-line altitude changes with the fluctuation in the mass balance, and the effective mass balance gradient is 7.4 mm/m. In this paper, the headwaters of the Urumqi River were analyzed using meteorological data from 1958 to 2009, including the average seasonal temperature and precipitation. The results showed that the main factor associated with the mass balance variation of Glacier No. 1 is the fluctuation in the summer air temperature, followed by changes in the precipitation.     

昆明太华山1954~2019年气温与降水的气候特征

基于线性趋势、累积距平、M-K突变检验和小波变换方法,统计昆明太华山近66年气温和降水的气候特征,归纳气候变化规律,结果表明:昆明太华山近66年年平均气温呈上升趋势,1999~2004年之间发生了突变。年平均气温显著偏冷的年份集中在1980年前,显著偏暖的年份集中在2010年后。分析出年平均气温有16年左右的周期,还有7~8年和3~4年的小尺度准周期变化。年降水量线性倾向率为-3.1349 mm/年,呈递减趋势。1954~2019年年降水量累计距平曲线总体呈双峰波动状态。年降水量存在14年的周期最显著,还存在6~7年和3年的小尺度准周期变化。2017~2019年的年降水量震荡周期等值线在6~7年和3年为负值,而且均未闭合,因此,可大概预测未来2年内昆明年降水量持续偏小。