基于CMIP5模式的干旱内陆河流域未来气候变化预估

我国西北干旱半干旱地区水资源短缺、生态环境脆弱,未来气候变化预估对水资源管理具有重要的现实意义。以黑河流域为研究区,基于1960-2014年月值NCEP再分析资料与气象要素实测资料,建立逐步回归降尺度模型;针对模型不足,提出一种补充逐步回归降尺度模型;经2006-2014年CMIP5中CNRM-CM5模式的区域适用性评价,选取适宜模型进行2016-2060年CNRM-CM5模式下的流域未来气候变化预估。主要结论为：（1）补充逐步回归模型的模拟效果总体要好于逐步回归模型,两模型对流域气温的模拟效果要好于降水。（2）降尺度模型的CNRMCM5模式适用性评价表明,RCP4.5与RCP8.5路径下,补充回归模型的适用性总体好于逐步回归模型。（3）两种路径下,黑河流域上中游未来年均降水量分别为324.94 mm、330.15 mm,未来流域降水分布的不均匀性增强。（4）两种路径下黑河流域中下游未来年均气温分别为10.25℃、10.77℃。     

资源约束下的三元函数区域增长模式

区域经济动力学的核心问题是区域增长,本文将资源要素引进生产函数,建立了资源约束下的三元区域增长模式,研究揭示:(1)模式不仅可以较好地模拟区域发展的不同阶段,还可以较客观地描写、预测区域发展与环境资源等区域因素的关系;(2)在区域经济(区域社会生产)这个经济“大木桶”里,起到主要约束作用的因素是资源,而不是通常备受关注的资金或管理因素;(3)资源指数越小越有利于区域资本的积累和社会生产总量的增加。     

A Scenario-Based Hydrocarbon Production Forecast for Louisiana

Conventional oil and gas productions in Louisiana has been in decline for four decades, but in recent years, new technology and capital investment have opened up a significant new resource play in the Haynesville shale, reversing Louisiana’s gas production decline. The need for long-term forecasting has become more important for state planning and for facilitating efficient regulatory development and incentive programs, as the largest oil and gas fields diminish in productivity and the promise of unconventional resources are realized. The purpose of this article is to present a hydrocarbon production forecast for Louisiana using disaggregate resource classes and a transparent analytic framework. A field-level evaluation is employed for producing fields categorized by primary product, resource category, geographic area, and production class. Undiscovered fields are classified according to conventional and unconventional categories and are modeled using a probabilistic and scenario-based forecast. The analytic framework is described along with a discussion of the model results and limitations of the analysis. Louisiana is in the early stages of transitioning to a primarily gas-producing state, and the manner in which the Haynesville shale develops will play a critical role in deliverability and economic prospects in the future.     

中国经济技术开发区效率测度及时空分异研究

运用数据包络分析法（DEA）及Malmquist生产率指数法,选择实际利用外资额、进口总额作为输入指标与GDP、出口总额作为输出指标,测算了中国41个国家级经济技术开发区2001~2010年的综合效率与全要素生产率指数,并对其时空分异特征进行分析。研究结果表明：① 平均综合效率偏低,总体呈“M”型变化趋势;② 综合效率区域差异明显,西部最高,东部次之,中部最低;③ TFP年均增长率为1.025,处于低速增长状态,说明开发区的整体生产效率逐年改善;④ TFP增长率地区分布为东部最高,西部次之,中部最低,综合效率较高的开发区TFP增长率反而较低;⑤ 对GDP增长速度与TFP增长速度双低的开发区进行分类指导与合理整治,以全面提高开发区的可持续发展能力。     

A New Model for the Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Resources

A critical examination of Hubbert’s model proves that it does not account for several factors that have significantly influenced the production of petroleum and other fossil fuels. The effect of these factors comes into the price of the fossil fuels, and the latter has a significant influence on the demand and rate of production of energy resources as well as on the long-term rate of production growth at both the regional and global levels. Based on several observations of historical production data, a simple mathematical model is constructed and presented in this paper for the lifetime of a fossil fuel resource. The recent data of global petroleum and natural gas production show that a very important period in the life of energy resources is a period when the demand of these resources increases almost linearly. The linear part of the production curve makes the entire lifetime production of the resource asymmetric. Information on the total available quantity of a resource at any time and of the average slope during this linear period yields an estimate of the timescale, T ₂, when peak production is reached and depletion follows. The total available quantity of the energy resource is laden with significant uncertainty, which propagates in the estimates of the timescale of the peak production in any resource model. The time asymmetry of the current model leads to a delay of the timescale, when the onset of the resource production commences (e.g., peak oil). However, the rate of the resource production decline is significantly higher than that predicted by other models that use a symmetrical curve-fitting method.     

Hubbert’s Legacy: A Review of Curve-Fitting Methods to Estimate Ultimately Recoverable Resources

A growing number of commentators are forecasting a near-term peak and subsequent terminal decline in the global production of conventional oil as a result of the physical depletion of the resource. These forecasts frequently rely on the estimates of the ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of different regions, obtained through the use of curve-fitting to historical trends in discovery or production. Curve-fitting was originally pioneered by M. King Hubbert in the context of an earlier debate about the future of the US oil production. However, despite their widespread use, curve-fitting techniques remain the subject of considerable controversy. This article classifies and explains these techniques and identifies both their relative suitability in different circumstances and the level of confidence that may be placed in their results. This article discusses the interpretation and importance of the URR estimates, indicates the relationship between curve fitting and other methods of estimating the URR and classifies the techniques into three groups. It then investigates each group in turn, indicating their historical origins, contemporary application and major strengths and weaknesses. The article then uses illustrative data from a number of oil-producing regions to assess whether these techniques produce consistent results as well as highlight some of the statistical issues raised and suggesting how they may be addressed. The article concludes that the applicability of curve-fitting techniques is more limited than adherents claim and that the confidence bounds on the results are wider than usually assumed.     

土地变化模型方法综述

土地系统变化长期以来不仅是地理学研究热点,也是资源环境经济学、生态学、城市规划等多学科领域关注的主题。构建模型模拟土地变化能够促进理解人地相互作用机制,模拟结果可为土地资源优化与资源环境政策制定提供依据。不同研究者基于不同学科理论、应用多种方法构建土地变化模型,模型从早期关注自然覆被类型变化发展到对人类决策行为的刻画,从统计方法发展到更突出空间分布的元胞自动机方法,以及更聚焦土地变化过程的经济学方法和多主体方法。未来土地变化模型发展方向为：在多尺度进行多方法耦合,对土地变化过程进行更为明晰地刻画,将土地变化模型与其他地球系统模型耦合等方面,进一步能够促进解释复杂人地系统,并推进模型在决策支持层面的应用。     

城市增长边界研究进展——理论模型、划定方法与实效评价

新型城镇化背景下,传统粗放的城镇土地利用模式难以为继,控制城市规模、优化空间格局已成为当前国土资源管理的重点工作之一。城市增长边界(UGB)作为一种西方国家控制城市蔓延的技术手段和政策工具已逐渐被引入国内。采用文献资料法和归纳演绎法,梳理并分析了国内外城市增长边界的理论模型、划定方法与实效评价,挖掘未来城市增长驱动力和增长边界制定方法可能的研究方向,为后续研究和未来其在中国的实践提供参考。结果表明：① 城市增长边界实证研究的理论基础主要源于古典单中心城市模型,由于国情不同,国内主要关注经济水平、产业结构和可达性对城市增长的影响,而国外在此基础上还关注公共政策和服务、外部性以及主体间的博弈对城市蔓延的促进或抑制作用;② 城市增长刚性边界划定主要以土地适宜性和承载力评价为基础,弹性边界可采用元胞自动机进行空间辅助模拟;③ 国外城市增长边界的实施效果具有地区差异性,国内目前还缺乏城市增长边界实施效果评价相关方面的研究。因此,城市增长驱动力后续研究应吸纳多源理论,识别不同尺度下其机理特征,探索宏观环境的情景变量对微观环境下“驱动力—城市增长”这一关系的影响。城市增长弹性边界制定需要考虑城乡土地利用转换背后不同情景下主体间的复杂博弈对用地转换在空间上分布的决定作用。为了保证政策的持续性和统筹区域发展,未来需要明确城市增长边界的管理机构,制定对应的法律条款和管理体系。     

资源短缺与中国资源节约发展方向探讨

随着社会经济的快速发展,资源短缺对中国经济的瓶颈作用越来越强烈。作为世界上最大的发展中国家,中国的资源环境现状面临严峻挑战。中国虽然资源总量丰富,但是人均资源量少、结构失衡,多年来以资源环境的大量投入不仅严重破坏了资源基础,更加重了环境恶化的趋势。总体来看,目前中国在资源生产和消费过程中主要存在资源利用效率低下、产品质量不过关、生产集约程度不足、生产和消费失衡以及生产与资源分布不吻合、资源管理不完善等方面的问题,要维持未来中国资源的有效供给,需要建立自然资源开发利用从宏观到微观的统一管理机制,强化机制的综合协调功能,因此我国资源节约型经济的基本模式应是：（（消费节省+生产集约）×（政府干预+市场调节））×科技教育。为此,中国资源节约战略可以考虑通过发展循环经济、推进国家资源加工深度化进程、加强资源管理和提高环保意识等措施进行。     

水资源管理模式评述与展望

导致我国水资源利用效率低下和水危机产生的根本原因,并不完全在于水资源的短缺及缺少节水技术和污水处理循环利用技术,而在很大程度上归因于缺乏一种能够有效地促进水资源高效配置和节约用水的水资源管理模式。因此,建立一种科学合理和高效的水资源管理模式是我国水资源管理制度改革与创新的关键所在,也是我国建设水资源节约型社会的一项重要任务和战略目标。本文重点对国内外常见的几种主要的水资源管理模式的内涵及其管理手段和功能特征等进行了比较分析和研究,在此基础上,探讨了我国水资源管理模式的创新与发展思路,初步提出：建立以流域为单元的水资源生态系统综合管理模式是我国未来水资源管理制度改革的重要发展方向。     

B—P神经网络在径流长期预测中的应用

人工神经网络作为一个具有高度非线性映射能力的计算模型，已广泛应用于模式识别、自动控制等许多领域。在数值预测方面，它不需要预先确定样本的数学模型，仅通过学习样本数据即可进行预测。作者以龙羊峡水库入库径流为研究对象，将人工神经网络中的反向传播算法（简称B－P模型）应用于入库径流变化趋势的长期预测，并将基结果与常用的时间序列分析方法的计算结果进行比较，以分析人工神经网络在径流预测领域应用的优越性及其应用前景。     

A Geography of Place: principles and application for defining ‘eco-civic’ resource governance regions

River catchments have been the dominant form of regionalisation for natural-resource management in many countries since the 1980s. Local governments play a considerable role in planning with ever-increasing responsibilities for sustainable environmental management, planning and development controls. There has also been an increasing emphasis on community participation in resource management, which emphasises the need to re-examine the requirements for spatial definition of resource governance regions. This paper proposes three principles. First, the nature and reach of environmental externalities of resource use should determine the size and nesting of resource management regions. Second, the boundaries of resource governance regions should enclose areas of greatest interest and importance to local residents. Third, the biophysical characteristics of a resource governance region should be as homogenous as possible, which provides resource planning and management efficiencies. The paper describes a range of concepts and empirical techniques used to apply these principles to the derivation of a resource governance regionalisation of the State of New South Wales, Australia.     

竺可桢同志与我国热带和海南岛的科学研究(二)在较近将来发展海南岛农林牧业的一着棋

本文所拟论述的第二个问题是在发展海南岛农林牧业中存在的主要困难及克服困难的途径。     

Frankincense yield assessment and modeling in closed and grazed Boswellia papyrifera woodlands of Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

Boswellia papyrifera, a frankincense producing tree, grows in the arid lowlands of Ethiopia. It is a multipurpose tree species with ecological, environmental, cultural and socio-economic values. The resource has been declining due to unsustainable management. This study is aimed at estimating frankincense yield in a single production year, assessing the relationship between yield and dendrometric variables, and developing predictive yield models. We collected data of one harvesting season from randomly selected sample trees in an exclosure and a free grazing site. We found strong nonlinear relations between yield and dendrometric variables, which are useful for predictive yield modeling. A stepwise linear regression indicated that the yield from the sixth round of tapping could explain about 88% of the variation in annual yield per tree, a finding that can largely facilitate future yield monitoring. The frankincense yield was larger in the exclosure than in the adjacent free grazing site and the difference was statistically significant. To conclude, management of degraded B. papyrifera forest as exclosures should be strengthened to enhance the economic, environmental and cultural benefits from the species. Their effectiveness should be evaluated through yield monitoring and prediction.     

Evolutionary dynamical mapping of Siberia's vegetation for forecasting purposes

Presented are the cartographic models for the present-day and potential vegetation in the key area of Baikalian Siberia which provide a basis for prognostic analysis and synthesis. It is shown that geobotanical forecasting should be treated as a single complicated cartographic process having its logic and structure. Evolutionary-dynamical approach is the most effective tool for solving geobotanical forecasting problems.     

A GIS-based Spatial Pattern Analysis Model for eco-region mapping and characterization

Growing concerns about global climate change, biodiversity maintenance, natural resources conservation, and long-term ecosystem sustainability have been responsible for the transformation of traditional single resource management approaches into integrated ecosystem management models. Eco-regions are large ecosystems of regional extent that contain smaller ecosystems of similar response potential and resource production capabilities. They can be used as a geographical framework for organizing and reporting resource information, setting bioecological recovery criteria, extrapolating site-level management, and monitoring global change. The objective of this research is to develop a quantitative, multivariate regionalization model that is capable of delineating eco-regions at multiple levels from remotely sensed information and other environmental and natural resources spatial data. The Spatial Pattern Analysis Model developed in this study uses a region-growing algorithm to generate spatially contiguous regions from primitive polygonal land units. The algorithm merges the most similar pair of neighbouring units at each iteration, based on satisfying certain similarity criteria until all units are grouped into one. This model was utilized to develop an eco-region map of Nebraska with three hierarchical levels. In the mapping process, the STATSGO data set was used to build the primitive map units. Environmental parameters included in the model were multi-temporal AVHRR data, soil rooting depth, organic matter content, available water capacity, and long-term annual averages of water balance and growing degree day totals. Development of the model provides a new and useful approach to eco-region mapping for resource managers and researchers. The method is automated and efficient, reduces the judgement biases and uncertainty of manual analyses, and can be replicated for other regions or for the regionalization of other themes.     

资源信息系统的多层次结构与功能

对应于人口、资源、环境与经济这些复杂系统的信息系统,其结构是多层次的。分别应用于国家宏观决策、地区开发与城市建设。对于空间型与统计型各有侧重。我国资源信息系统起步较晚,进展参差不齐,还不配套。人口数据库缺乏空间型结构:经济数据库属于统计型结构;而海洋环境与资源信息系统则系文献检索的性质。资源信息系统的功能,不应局限于检索、查询,而应走向高层次的分析、模拟与预测。目前已经具备回答决策过程中的一些主要命题,诸如:数据可靠性、资源容量、环境适应性、交通的接近度、工程的可行性和生产的稳定性。正在进一步为建立系统动力模型和专家系统而努力。     

Development of a GIS model to enhance macrophyte re-establishment projects

Diverse native aquatic macrophytes serve a number of physical and biological functions in the aquatic environment and provide essential habitat for several fish species. In systems that lack submersed macrophytes, native macrophyte re-establishment can be used to revitalize the aquatic community. Planning re-establishment projects requires knowledge of the system along with the growth requirements of macrophytes. Prior studies have identified factors that are important for macrophyte colonization, persistence, and dispersal. However, deductive approaches to identify macrophyte habitat that is suitable for management application have not been developed. A potential solution to this problem is the incorporation of waterscape-wide variables into a Geographic Information System (GIS) and the use of spatial modeling techniques to identify suitable macrophyte habitat. This provides a scientifically based approach to macrophyte re-establishment planning to make efforts more efficient and to recognize potential coverage. The flexibility, scalability, and topological advantages of using a GIS to identify and visualize habitat allow integration with other spatial ecological variables to improve the management of aquatic resources from plants to fish, including invasive species mitigation. Using Little Bear Creek Reservoir, Alabama, as an example system, we illustrate a GIS modeling process that can be applied to any system where the identification of macrophyte habitat is relevant to aquatic resource management goals.     

A Coupled Model Approach to Reduce Nonpoint-Source Pollution Resulting from Predicted Urban Growth: A Case Study in the Ambos Nogales Watershed

The development of new approaches for understanding processes of urban development and their environmental effects, as well as strategies for sustainable management, is essential in expanding metropolitan areas. This study illustrates the potential of linking urban growth and watershed models to identify problem areas and support long-term watershed planning. Sediment is a primary source of nonpoint-source pollution in surface waters. In urban areas, sediment is intermingled with other surface debris in transport. In an effort to forecast the effects of development on surface-water quality, changes predicted in urban areas by the SLEUTH urban growth model were applied in the context of erosion-sedimentation models (Universal Soil Loss Equation and Spatially Explicit Delivery Models). The models are used to simulate the effect of excluding hot-spot areas of erosion and sedimentation from future urban growth and to predict the impacts of alternative erosion-control scenarios. Ambos Nogales, meaning "both Nogaleses," is a name commonly used for the twin border cities of Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico. The Ambos Nogales watershed has experienced a decrease in water quality as a result of urban development in the twin-city area. Population growth rates in Ambos Nogales are high and the resources set in place to accommodate the rapid population influx will soon become overburdened. Because of its remote location and binational governance, monitoring and planning across the border is compromised. One scenario described in this research portrays an improvement in water quality through the identification of high-risk areas using models that simulate their protection from development and replanting with native grasses, while permitting the predicted and inevitable growth elsewhere. This is meant to add to the body of knowledge about forecasting the impact potential of urbanization on sediment delivery to streams for sustainable development, which can be accomplished in a virtual environment.