Solar Flare Statistics with a One-Dimensional Mhd Model

The dynamics of dissipative events in coronal loops is modeled with the compressible MHD equations in one space dimension in slab geometry, with a forcing that mimics the footpoint motions. Using a set of numerical simulations, the statistics of strong velocity and magnetic field gradients that develop, leading to a bursty dissipation, are analyzed. Agreement with existing observations of X-ray solar flares obtains concerning the power-law distribution of the luminosity histogram, including when the dynamics are simplified to that of the Burgers equation; in that latter case, this allows for recasting the analysis in terms of avalanche-type models.     

Solar Flare Occurrence Rate and Probability in Terms of the Sunspot Classification Supplemented with Sunspot Area and Its Changes

We investigate the solar flare occurrence rate and daily flare probability in terms of the sunspot classification supplemented with sunspot area and its changes. For this we use the NOAA active region data and GOES solar flare data for 15 years (from January 1996 to December 2010). We consider the most flare-productive 11 sunspot classes in the McIntosh sunspot group classification. Sunspot area and its changes can be a proxy of magnetic flux and its emergence/cancellation, respectively. We classify each sunspot group into two sub-groups by its area: ??Large?? and ??Small??. In addition, for each group, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot area changes: ??Decrease??, ??Steady??, and ??Increase??. As a result, in the case of compact groups, their flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities noticeably increase with sunspot group area. We also find that the flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities for the ??Increase?? sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. In case of the (M+X)-class flares in the ??Dkc?? group, the flare occurrence rate of the ??Increase?? sub-group is three times higher than that of the ??Steady?? sub-group. The mean flare occurrence rates and flare probabilities for all sunspot groups increase with the following order: ??Decrease??, ??Steady??, and ??Increase??. Our results statistically demonstrate that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance the occurrence of major solar flares.     

Photospheric Shear Flows in Solar Active Regions and Their Relation to Flare Occurrence

Solar active regions (ARs) that produce major flares typically exhibit strong plasma shear flows around photospheric magnetic polarity inversion lines (MPILs). It is therefore important to quantitatively measure such photospheric shear flows in ARs for a better understanding of their relation to flare occurrence. Photospheric flow fields were determined by applying the Differential Affine Velocity Estimator for Vector Magnetograms (DAVE4VM) method to a large data set of 2548 coaligned pairs of AR vector magnetograms with 12-min separation over the period 2012?–?2016. From each AR flow-field map, three shear-flow parameters were derived corresponding to the mean (\(\langle S\rangle \)), maximum (\(S_{\mathrm{max}}\)) and integral (\(S_{\mathrm{sum}}\)) shear-flow speeds along strong-gradient, strong-field MPIL segments. We calculated flaring rates within 24 h as a function of each shear-flow parameter and we investigated the relation between the parameters and the waiting time (\(\tau \)) until the next major flare (class M1.0 or above) after the parameter observation. In general, it is found that the larger \(S_{\mathrm{sum}}\) an AR has, the more likely it is for the AR to produce flares within 24 h. It is also found that among ARs which produce major flares, if one has a larger value of \(S_{\mathrm{sum}}\) then \(\tau \) generally gets shorter. These results suggest that large ARs with widespread and/or strong shear flows along MPILs tend to not only be more flare productive, but also produce major flares within 24 h or less.     

Understanding Solar Flare Waiting-Time Distributions

The observed distribution of waiting times t between X-ray solar flares of greater than C1 class listed in the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) catalog exhibits a power-law tail (t) for large waiting times (t>10hours). It is shown that the power-law index varies with the solar cycle. For the minimum phase of the cycle the index is =–1.4±0.1, and for the maximum phase of the cycle the index is –3.2±0.2. For all years 1975–2001, the index is –2.2±0.1. We present a simple theory to account for the observed waiting-time distributions in terms of a Poisson process with a time-varying rate (t). A common approximation of slow variation of the rate with respect to a waiting time is examined, and found to be valid for the GOES catalog events. Subject to this approximation the observed waiting-time distribution is determined by f(), the time distribution of the rate . If f() has a power-law form for low rates, the waiting time-distribution is predicted to have a power-law tail (t)^–(3+) (>–3). Distributions f() are constructed from the GOES data. For the entire catalog a power-law index =–0.9±0.1 is found in the time distribution of rates for low rates (<0.1hours ^–1). For the maximum and minimum phases power-law indices =–0.1±0.5 and =–1.7±0.2, respectively, are observed. Hence, the Poisson theory together with the observed time distributions of the rate predict power-law tails in the waiting-time distributions with indices –2.2±0.1 (1975–2001), –2.9±0.5 (maximum phase) and –1.3±0.2 (minimum phase), consistent with the observations. These results suggest that the flaring rate varies in an intrinsically different way at solar maximum by comparison with solar minimum. The implications of these results for a recent model for flare statistics (Craig, 2001) and more generally for our understanding of the flare process are discussed.     

Momentum Distribution in Solar Flare Processes

We discuss the consequences of momentum conservation in processes related to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), in particular describing the relative importance of vertical impulses that could contribute to the excitation of seismic waves (“sunquakes”). The initial impulse associated with the primary flare energy transport in the impulsive phase contains sufficient momentum, as do the impulses associated with the acceleration of the evaporation flow (the chromospheric shock) or the CME itself. We note that the deceleration of the evaporative flow, as coronal closed fields arrest it, will tend to produce an opposite impulse, reducing the energy coupling into the interior. The actual mechanism of the coupling remains unclear at present.     

太阳耀斑环的收缩和剪切

分析了2个耀斑事件,这2个事件分别是2002年3月14日M5.7级和2003年10月29日X10级耀斑。这两个耀斑在紫外(Ultroviolet or UV,160.0 nm)或远紫外(Extremeultraviolet or EUV,17.1 nm)都具有双带结构,在硬X射线(Hard X-ray or HXR)能段有明显的共轭足点。通过"重心法",可以得到EUV双带以及硬X射线足点的位置。通过对这2个耀斑事件的初步分析,得到下面的结论:(1)耀斑脉冲期,这两个耀斑的共轭亮核和双带都具有明显的会聚运动,会聚运动延续了3～10 min。亮核或双带的分离运动发生在会聚运动后;(2)耀斑的硬X射线足点具有很强的剪切运动,并且在耀斑过程中,剪切角的变化持续减小。这些结果表明磁重联通常发生在剪切程度高的磁场区域。这些结果支持Ji(2007)的磁场模型,这个模型认为耀斑环的收缩运动是剪切磁场松弛引起的。     

A Rate-Independent Test for Solar Flare Sympathy

Solar flare sympathy is the triggering of a flare in one active region by a flare in another. Statistical tests for flare sympathy have returned varying results. However, existing tests have relied on flaring rates in active regions being constant in time, or else have attempted to model the rate variation, which is a difficult task. A simple test is described which is independent of flaring rates. The test generalizes the approach of L. Fritzová-Švestkova, R.C. Chase, and Z. Švestka [Solar Phys. 48, 275, 1976], and examines the distribution of flare coincidences in pairs of active regions as a function of coincidence interval τ. The test is applied to available soft X-ray and Hα flare event listings. The soft X-ray events exhibit a deficit of flare coincidences for τ≤;20 min, which is most likely due to an event-selection effect whereby the increased soft X-ray emission due to one flare prevents a second flare being identified. The Hα events show an excess of flare coincidences for τ≤; 10 min, suggesting flare sympathy. The number of Hα event pairs occurring within 10 min of one another is higher than that expected on the basis of random coincidence by a fraction 0.12± 0.02. Nearby active regions (spatial separation <50˚) show a greater excess of coincidences for τ≤; 10 min than do active regions which are far apart (spatial separation ≥50˚). However, the active regions which are far apart still show some evidence for an excess of coincidences at very short coincidence intervals (τ≤; 2 min), which appears to exclude the possibility of a coronal disturbance propagating from one region to another.     

Large-Scale Electric Fields in Solar Flare Regions

A method of separating electric field in the flare region in the potential and vortex (induced) parts is discussed. According to the proposed model, the motion of flare ribbons from the central line of the flare region is caused by the vortex component of the coronal electric field, while the motion of bright spots within the flare region towards the central line is driven by the potential component of that field. The intensity of both the components of the flare region electric field is estimated to equal approximately 1–3 V cm^–1, which provides the input of the electromagnetic energy into the active region at a rate of about 10¹⁰ erg cm^–2 s^–1.     

Periodicities Near 160 Minutes in Flare Occurrence

The 160.01-min periodicity was originally found from line-of-sight velocities of the photosphere, and Kotov and Tsap reported a detection of the same periodicity in flare occurrence times. Intrigued by this, I analyze occurrence times of flares of cycles 19–23 to investigate periodicities in the neighborhood of 160 min, cycle by cycle. The 160.01-min periodicity is not detected from any cycle. However, a 160.69 min periodicity is detected in the spectrum for cycle 19, and a 160.32-min periodicity is detected in the power spectrum for major flares of cycle 21. The 160.32-min periodicity did not influence the occurrence rate of flares with X-ray classes below M3.0. Among major flares, the amplitude of modulation increases with increasing X-ray class.     

Short-Term Solar Flare Prediction Using Predictor Teams

A short-term solar flare prediction model is built using predictor teams rather than an individual set of predictors. The information provided by the set of predictors could be redundant. So it is necessary to generate subsets of predictors which can keep the information constant. These subsets are called predictor teams. In the framework of rough set theory, predictor teams are constructed from sequences of the maximum horizontal gradient, the length of neutral line and the number of singular points extracted from SOHO/MDI longitudinal magnetograms. Because of the instability of the decision tree algorithm, prediction models generated by the C4.5 decision tree for different predictor teams are diverse. The flaring sample, which is incorrectly predicted by one model, can be correctly forecasted by another one. So these base prediction models are used to construct an ensemble prediction model of solar flares by the majority voting rule. The experimental results show that the predictor team can keep the distinguishability of the original set, and the ensemble prediction model can obtain better performance than the model based on the individual set of predictors.     

Automatic Solar Flare Tracking Using Image-Processing Techniques

Measurement of the evolution properties of solar flares through their complete cyclic development is crucial in the studies of Solar Physics. From the analysis of solar H images, we used Support Vector Machines (SVMs) to automatically detect flares and applied image segmentation techniques to compute their properties. We also present a solution for automatically tracking the apparent separation motion of two-ribbon flares and measuring their moving direction and speed in the magnetic fields. From these measurements, with certain assumptions, we inferred the reconnection of the electric field as a measure of the rate of the magnetic reconnection in the corona. The automatic procedure is a valuable tool for real-time monitoring of flare evolution.     

Silicon Abundance from RESIK Solar Flare Observations

The RESIK instrument on the CORONAS-F spacecraft obtained solar flare and active-region X-ray spectra in four channels covering the wavelength range 3.8?–?6.1 Å in its operational period between 2001 and 2003. Several highly ionized silicon lines were observed within the range of the long-wavelength channel (5.00?–?6.05 Å). The fluxes of the Si?xiv Ly-β line (5.217 Å) and the Si?xiii 1s ²?–?1s3p line (5.688 Å) during 21 flares with optimized pulse-height analyzer settings on RESIK have been analyzed to obtain the silicon abundance relative to hydrogen in flare plasmas. As in previous work, the emitting plasma for each spectrum is assumed to be characterized by a single temperature and emission measure given by the ratio of emission in the two channels of GOES. The silicon abundance is determined to be A(Si)=7.93±.21 (Si?xiv) and 7.89±.13 (Si?xiii) on a logarithmic scale with H=12. These values, which vary by only very small amounts from flare to flare and times within flares, are 2.6±1.3 and 2.4±0.7 times the photospheric abundance, and are about a factor of three higher than RESIK measurements during a period of very low activity. There is a suggestion that the Si/S abundance ratio increases from active regions to flares.     

Imaging Spectroscopy of a White-Light Solar Flare

We report observations of a white-light solar flare (SOL2010-06-12T00:57, M2.0) observed by the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI). The HMI data give us the first space-based high-resolution imaging spectroscopy of a white-light flare, including continuum, Doppler, and magnetic signatures for the photospheric Fe i line at 6173.34 Å and its neighboring continuum. In the impulsive phase of the flare, a bright white-light kernel appears in each of the two magnetic footpoints. When the flare occurred, the spectral coverage of the HMI filtergrams (six equidistant samples spanning ±172 mÅ around nominal line center) encompassed the line core and the blue continuum sufficiently far from the core to eliminate significant Doppler crosstalk in the latter, which is otherwise a possibility for the extreme conditions in a white-light flare. RHESSI obtained complete hard X-ray and γ-ray spectra (this was the first γ-ray flare of Cycle 24). The Fe i line appears to be shifted to the blue during the flare but does not go into emission; the contrast is nearly constant across the line profile. We did not detect a seismic wave from this event. The HMI data suggest stepwise changes of the line-of-sight magnetic field in the white-light footpoints.     

Cycle 23 Variation in Solar Flare Productivity

The NOAA listings of solar flares in cycles 21?–?24, including the GOES soft X-ray magnitudes, enable a simple determination of the number of flares each flaring active region produces over its lifetime. We have studied this measure of flare productivity over the interval 1975?–?2012. The annual averages of flare productivity remained approximately constant during cycles 21 and 22, at about two reported M- or X-flares per region, but then increased significantly in the declining phase of cycle 23 (the years 2004?–?2005). We have confirmed this by using the independent RHESSI flare catalog to check the NOAA events listings where possible. We note that this measure of solar activity does not correlate with the solar cycle. The anomalous peak in flare productivity immediately preceded the long solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24.     

太阳6659号活动区的白光耀斑

1991年6月6日我们在太阳6659号活动区观测到了一个白光耀斑.这个白光耀斑伴有强烈的H_α、X射线和射电微波发射.我们对这次自光事件作了初步的分析研究,并对它的总能量作了粗略估计.     

Solar Flare and CME Observations with STEREO/EUVI

STEREO/EUVI observed 185 flare events (detected above the GOES class C1 level or at >?25 keV with RHESSI) during the first two years of the mission (December 2006?–?November 2008), while coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were reported in about a third of these events. We compile a comprehensive catalog of these EUVI-observed events, containing the peak fluxes in soft X rays, hard X rays, and EUV, as well as a classification and statistics of prominent EUV features: 79% show impulsive EUV emission (coincident with hard X rays), 73% show delayed EUV emission from postflare loops and arcades, 24% represent occulted flares, 17% exhibit EUV dimming, 5% show loop oscillations or propagating waves, and at least 3% show erupting filaments. We analyze an example of each EUV feature by stereoscopic modeling of its 3D geometry. We find that EUV emission can be dominated by impulsive emission from a heated, highly sheared, noneruptive filament, in addition to the more common impulsive EUV emission from flare ribbons or the delayed postflare EUV emission that results from cooling of the soft-X-ray-emitting flare loops. Occulted flares allow us to determine CME-related coronal dimming uncontaminated from flare-related EUV emission. From modeling the time evolution of EUV dimming we can accurately quantify the initial expansion of CMEs and determine their masses. Further, we find evidence that coronal loop oscillations are excited by the rapid initial expansion of CMEs. These examples demonstrate that stereoscopic EUV data provide powerful new methods to model the 3D aspects in the hydrodynamics of flares and kinematics of CMEs.     

Regularized Energy-Dependent Solar Flare Hard X-Ray Spectral Index

The deduction from solar flare X-ray photon spectroscopic data of the energy-dependent model-independent spectral index is considered as an inverse problem. Using the well-developed regularization approach we analyze the energy dependency of spectral index for a high-resolution energy spectrum provided by Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI). The regularization technique produces much smoother derivatives while avoiding additional errors typical of finite differences. It is shown that observations imply a spectral index varying significantly with energy, in a way that also varies with time as the flare progresses. The implications of these findings are discussed in the solar flare context.