三峡树坪滑坡动力学的有限元模拟

三峡工程是迄今为止最大的水利工程,对库区滑坡灾害的监测和机制研究一直是重要的研究课题。本文利用Terra SAR-X的强度图进行相关计算,求解出2009年5月20日至8月5日期间三峡树坪滑坡的形变场。该形变场特征和树坪滑坡体的地形特征吻合甚好,位移大小、方向和三峡大学对滑坡体的野外观测结果基本吻合。以此高精度位移场为外部约束,结合野外观测资料对滑坡体介质力学性质进行分类并选取边界条件,利用有限元方法对滑坡活动进行动力学计算模拟。计算过程中对滑坡体的滑动面形状、因降雨引起材料参数变化和三峡水库水位等因素分别反演和调整,得出符合其变形和发展过程的滑坡动力学特征。发现软弱带的物性参数决定滑坡体总体滑动量,滑坡体的物性参数决定位移分布的峰值位置。在确定了滑坡动力学特征之后,进一步讨论降雨和库区水位下降对滑坡产生的贡献权重,得出降雨是树坪滑坡的决定因素。     

基于形变监测成果探讨万州枇杷坪古滑坡稳定性

枇杷坪古滑坡位于重庆市万州区东缘,是三峡库区重点勘察的滑坡之一。近年来滑体部分地区出现蠕滑变形,存在局部复活的可能。枇杷坪古滑坡及移民房屋稳定性监测预警系统始建于2004年初,主要监测手段为GPS及精密水准测量。2a多的监测成果表明,枇杷坪古滑坡局部出现较大的顺坡向位移变形及不均匀沉降。滑体出现蠕滑变形的主要原因:①库水位的升高使地下水位升高;②频繁的人类工程活动。文章依据监测成果,运用Winsurf软件绘制出滑体水平形变场及垂直形变场,综合分析位移监测信息,并运用Mapinfo地理信息系统平台,依据滑体的形变场,试勾描出枇杷坪的强变形区域,该区域对应在滑体中段的中前部,区域内监测点均一致朝向长江方向滑移及倾斜。文章拟通过滑坡变形区的划分,探讨滑体的稳定性区划、变形特征及发展趋势。     

三峡库区阶跃变形滑坡水平位移与降雨量数学统计模型

三峡库区忠县区域的滑坡位移变化呈现阶跃变形特点。由于降雨量为主要影响因子,采用信号处理的快速傅里叶变换方法,提出一种基于高能频点的傅里叶级数拟合函数,对三峡库区忠县区域的月降雨量进行拟合,得到相关性高和均方误差可接受的拟合模型。在地质模型及滑坡机理类似的研究区内,针对滑坡倾角对水平位移的影响较大,通过定义滑坡倾角影响权重,计算研究区内总体权重位移,能较好地反映倾角的作用大小。设定降雨量傅里叶级数拟合函数为降雨因子项,阶跃函数为阶跃因子项,采用最小二乘法拟合该研究区3阶段变形的阶跃过程,得出包含降雨影响控制项和降雨量项组合而成的数学统计模型,用于三峡库区忠县区域9个阶跃变形滑坡11年的月监测。数据表明,用文中方法得到的拟合精度较好,相关度较高,均方误差较小,能够准确地反映出不同时间和不同变形阶段降雨量对该区域内水平位移的阶跃变形特点,可作为区域滑坡空间预测的一种新思路。     

三峡库区阶跃变形滑坡水平位移与降雨量数学统计模型

三峡库区忠县区域的滑坡位移变化呈现阶跃变形特点,由于降雨量为主要影响因子,采用信号处理的快速傅里叶变换方法,提出一种基于高能频点的傅里叶级数拟合函数,对三峡库区忠县区域的月降雨量进行拟合,得到相关性高和均方误差可接受的拟合模型。在地质模型及滑坡机理类似的研究区内,针对滑坡倾角对水平位移的影响较大,通过定义滑坡倾角影响权重,计算研究区内的总体权重位移能较好地反映倾角作用大小。设定降雨量傅里叶级数拟合函数为降雨因子项,阶跃函数为阶跃因子项,采用最小二乘法拟合该研究区3阶段变形的阶跃过程,得出包含降雨影响控制项和降雨量项组合而成的数学统计模型,用于三峡库区忠县区域9个阶跃变形滑坡11年的月监测。数据表明,用文中方法得到的拟合精度较好,相关度较高,均方误差较小,能够准确地反映出不同时间和不同变形阶段降雨量对该区域内水平位移的阶跃变形特点,可作为区域滑坡空间预测的一种新思路。     

利用InSAR技术研究黄土地区滑坡分布

InSAR技术能够获取大面积、连续、高精度的地表垂直形变信息,可用来监测地震、火山、滑坡等自然灾害造成的地表形变。文章介绍了InSAR技术在监测陕北黄土地区滑坡中的应用,首先进行野外地质勘察和TM光学遥感影像解译,接着通过EnviSat SAR数据差分干涉处理,获取研究区干涉形变场,提取出滑坡位移量,最后详细分析黄草湾至董家寺沿线一带的滑坡变形范围,并划定出了4个有一定变形的重点监视区。     

三峡库区白家包滑坡变形特征与影响因素分析

针对三峡库区阶跃型滑坡,以白家包滑坡为例,统计分析滑坡位移、变形速率和裂缝监测数据。显示滑坡在2007年6月之前为蠕动变形初期,受降雨和库水位等外界因素的作用,6月滑坡发生剧烈变形,之后一直保持约75°方向滑动。滑坡体中前部位移速率大于后缘,其变形具有牵引式特点。滑体上裂缝与变形位移具有一致性,位移量越大的区域裂缝越发育。将位移速率与降雨、库水位和地下水进行影响机制分析,建立滑坡变形与外界动态影响因素之间的响应关系。结果表明降雨量和库水位变化是引起滑坡季节性变形的主要因素,其中降雨强度、库水位下降及下降速率是导致滑坡位移速率波动大小的关键因子。     

多元时间序列分析的滑坡演化阶段划分

滑坡的时间-位移曲线一般具有3个阶段特征,即初始变形阶段、等速变形阶段和加速变形阶段,不同演化阶段加速度具有不同的变化特点.目前往往是依据对加速度曲线特征的分析来人为划分演化阶段,缺少相应的理论支持和定量计算.针对上述问题,选取月降雨量、月库水位高程变化量对滑坡的累计位移建立多因素的时间序列预测模型.然后利用Chow分割点检验理论,以所建模型中F和LR统计量最大值点作为分割点对滑坡演化阶段进行划分.以新滩滑坡和三峡库区白水河滑坡为例,利用累计位移、降雨及库水位变化数据进行计算验证.结果表明,对多元时间序列模型进行Chow分割点检验可对滑坡的演化阶段进行准确划分,为滑坡的临滑预警预报提供重要判据.      

三峡库区滑坡监测中的新技术和新方法

三峡库区地质环境脆弱,是我国滑坡灾害的多发地区,因此,有效开展滑坡监测已经成为三峡库区地质灾害防治的一项重要任务.目前,三峡库区的滑坡监测系统已初步得到建立,大量新技术和新方法的应用成果,为及时准确掌握三峡库区滑坡的变形状况、预测预报滑坡的发生提供了科学依据.文中着重介绍了GPS大地形变测量、自动伸缩计地表位移测量、合成孔径雷达干涉测量、TDR滑坡体深部变形测量和自动远程遥控监测等新技术和新方法的应用情况,并对各自的优缺点进行了分析和比较.指出在三峡库区滑坡监测中,应该根据滑坡自身特点、监测目的和仪器的特性,合理选择监测方法.     

三峡库区巫山古滑坡系统构造形变场研究

本文分析了三峡库区巫山古滑坡系统的地质结构, 并且重点探讨了古滑坡构造形变场的基本特征。作者指出, 滑坡构造形变场在古滑坡的不同部位具有不同的特征, 且与区域构造形变场有明显的差异, 据此, 可以作为古滑坡前、后缘的界定, 以及用于探索古滑坡的多期演化过程。滑坡构造形变场的研究, 对于鉴定识别古滑坡系统和三峡移民选址, 具有重要意义。     

三峡库区巫山县塔坪H1滑坡变形机制

自2008 年三峡库区175 m试验性蓄水以来,受库水波动及强降雨影响,沿江库岸发生多起顺向古滑坡变形灾害。以三峡库区巫山县塔坪H1滑坡为例,结合近十年滑坡调查勘察与变形监测资料,分析了该滑坡蓄水后的变形特征。通过研究分析认为:（1）塔坪H1滑坡为顺层古岩质滑坡,岩体呈碎裂状,岩性主要为三叠系香溪组软硬相间的砂岩、泥页岩,岩层间夹多套软弱夹层,形成了多级滑带控制的滑坡变形。（2）滑坡变形分为3个区域,位移量变形最大的滑坡前缘消落带区域,最大水平位移已达80 cm,其次是处于缓慢变形状态的曲尺场镇前部区域和后部相对稳定的曲尺场镇区域。（3）数值模拟结果显示,库水位周期性波动影响着滑坡前缘涉水区域稳定性变化,短时强降雨沿岩体结构面入渗会加速滑坡中前部区域稳定性快速下降。在水位波动和短时强降雨的共同影响下,塔坪H1滑坡在每年汛期呈现缓慢变形。目前塔坪H1滑坡中前部处于持续变形阶段,亟需开展滑坡防治工程,提高滑坡稳定性,确保场镇安全。     

Combined numerical investigation of the Gangda paleolandslide runout and associated dam breach flood propagation in the upper Jinsha River,SE Tibetan Plateau

A large paleolandslide occurred opposite the Gangda village in the upper Jinsha River, SE Tibetan Plateau. Field geological investigations and remote sensing indicated that the Gangda paleolandslide once blocked the Jinsha River. Evidence of river blocking, including landslide dam relics, upstream lacustrine sediments, and downstream outburst sediments, has been well preserved. To understand the river-blocking event including landslide, dam breach, and associated outburst flooding, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating and numerical simulations were performed in this study. OSL dating results showed that the paleolandslide dam was formed at 5.4?±?0.5 ka BP and breached at 3.4?±?0.3 ka BP, indicating that the dam lasted approximately 2000 years. The discrete element method was used to simulate the dynamics of the Gangda rock landslide based on the restored topography, while a fluid–solid coupling model was performed to simulate the landslide dam breaching and flooding. The fluid–solid coupling model can simultaneously reflect the process of landslide-dam collapse and the propagation of outburst flood. The simulated results indicate that the whole landslide process lasted about 60 s with a peak velocity of 38 m/s. It is significant that the simulated morphology of the residual landslide dam and downstream outburst sediments is consistent with the field observations. The combined numerical investigation in this paper provided new insights into the research of landscape evolution and helped to understand the chain disaster of landslide, dam breach, and flooding.

     

基于Midas-GTS的三峡库区金鸡岭滑坡成因机制与稳定性分析

金鸡岭滑坡在暴雨后发生明显变形,通过现场勘察、钻探、物探、深部位移监测以及水平位移监测得出初步结论。为进一步查明该滑坡成因机制,通过解译现有勘察监测资料,结合Midas-GTS软件分析不同工况下滑坡的渗流场、位移场、稳定性计算,综合评价其成因机制。结果如下：（1）物探解译得出金鸡岭滑坡为岩土混合、含水滑坡,滑动面位于T2b1泥灰岩和T2b2泥岩分界线;（2）深部位移监测揭示该滑坡为浅表层土体在发生滑移,滑动面与物探解译得出的滑动面位置一致;（3）水平位移监测表明浅表分布的后梆滑坡和潘家岭滑坡变形速率较快,变形强烈;（4）数值模拟结果显示金鸡岭滑坡在现状工况下处于基本稳定状态;在排干地下水工况下处于基本稳定状态;在暴雨工况下处于欠稳定状态,可能产生整体滑移,其上的潘家岭滑坡及后梆滑坡产生土体次级滑移。（5）金鸡岭滑坡的地形地貌、地质构造、地层岩性、为滑坡的形成和发展提供了物源和场地条件,暴雨和人类工程活动作为诱发因素,进一步加剧滑坡变形。该研究成果将为三峡库区类似滑坡的成因机制与稳定性分析提供理论依据,对后期防治措施具有重要指导意义。     

金沙江虎跳峡水电站龙蟠坝区坝肩边坡的稳定性研究

论文从龙蟠地区的基本地质环境入手,分析了工程区的地貌地质特征,以此获取了客观的计算模型。在此基础上,对在现今应力场作用下工程坝肩边坡的稳定性采用了有限元模拟,并对模拟的结果进行分析,得出坝肩边坡在现今应力场作用下左岸岩体应力-形变处于明显卸荷状态,右岸滑坡体处于明显的应力松驰阶段,但总体来说坝肩边坡在天然状态下是处于稳定状态的;同时对右岸滑坡体采用不平衡推力法对各种工况条件下的稳定性进行计算,并对计算结果进行分析得出右岸滑坡体在各种工况条件下也是处于稳定状态的。      

Dam-break risk analysis of the Attabad landslide dam in Pakistan and emergency countermeasures

The Attabad landslide dam caused significant property losses and many human casualties in Pakistan, and also greatly affected the operation of the China-Pakistan Karakoram Highway (KKH). This paper discusses the risk of dam breach and hazards to the KKH project construction site following a dam breach. The paper examines the following three topics. (1) The geomorphologic dimensionless blockage index (DBI) and the analogy method were used to analyze the stability of the Attabad landslide dam. The long-term behaviors of landslide dams downstream of the Attabad landslide dam indicate that the risk of a dam breach exists, but the probability of a total dam failure is low. (2) The peak discharge of a potential breach of the Attabad landslide dam was calculated for scenarios in which 1/4, 1/3, 1/2, and total failure of the dam was breached. The potential breach discharge decreases with the downstream distance. (3) The potential impacts of the landslide dam breach on the KKH project construction site were analyzed. Based on the composition of the landslide dam, the probability of a 1/3 dam breach is high. To ensure the safety of downstream areas, disaster preparedness plans that correspond to the 1/2 dam breach scenario should be developed. Based on experience in addressing the landslide dam that was caused by the Wenchuan Earthquake, artificial controlled drainage measures are suggested and provide a technical reference for addressing the Attabad landslide dam and achieving recovery and normal operation of KKH.     

三峡库区范家坪滑坡地表形变InSAR监测与综合分析

位于湖北省秭归县的范家坪滑坡是长江三峡库区干流上的大型岩质滑坡之一。阐述了高分辨率合成孔径雷达干涉测量技术(InSAR)监测滑坡地表形变的工作方法与技术体系,采用22景3m空间分辨率的TerraSAR-X数据,辅以人工反射体布设和GPS测量,对范家坪滑坡变形进行监测,发现滑坡处在缓慢匀速变形状态,其谭家河滑坡体的形变比木鱼包滑坡体更为强烈,形变最大处的雷达视线向形变速率达到300mm/a。通过综合分析滑坡区2012年大气降雨和长江水位资料,发现年度内范家坪滑坡变形受水位变化和大气降雨影响微弱。     

Logistic regression model for predicting the failure probability of a landslide dam

Landslides may obstruct river flow and result in landslide dams; they occur in many regions of the world. The formation and disappearance of natural lakes involve a complex earth–surface process. According to the lessons learned from many historical cases, landslide dams usually break down rapidly soon after the formation of the lake. Regarding hazard mitigation, prompt evaluation of the stability of the landslide dam is crucial. Based on a Japanese dataset, this study utilized the logistic regression method and the jack-knife technique to identify the important geomorphic variables, including peak flow (or catchment area), dam height, width and length in sequence, affecting the stability of landslide dams. The resulting high overall prediction power demonstrates the robustness of the proposed logistic regression models. Accordingly, the failure probability of a landslide dam can also be evaluated based on this approach. Ten landslide dams (formed after the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and 2009 Typhoon Morakot) with complete dam geometry records were adopted as examples of evaluating the failure probability. The stable Tsao-Ling landslide dam, which was induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake, has a failure probability of 27.68% using a model incorporating the catchment area and dam geometry. On the contrary, the Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was artificially breached soon after its formation during the Wenchuan earthquake, has a failure probability as high as 99.54%. Typhoon Morakot induced the Siaolin landslide dam, which was breached within one hour after its formation and has a failure probability of 71.09%. Notably, the failure probability of the earthquake induced cases is reduced if the catchment area in the prediction model is replaced by the peak flow of the dammed stream for these cases. In contrast, the predicted failure probability of the heavy rainfall-induced case increases if the high flow rate of the dammed stream is incorporated into the prediction model. Consequently, it is suggested that the prediction model using the peak flow as causative factor should be used to evaluate the stability of a landslide dam if the peak flow is available. Together with an estimation of the impact of an outburst flood from a landslide-dammed lake, the failure probability of the landslide dam predicted by the proposed logistic regression model could be useful for evaluating the related risk.     

Measuring precursory movements of the recent Xinmo landslide in Mao County,China with Sentinel-1 and ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 datasets

The Xinmo landslide occurred in the early morning of 24 June 2017 at about 5:38 am local time. This catastrophic event caused enormous casualties and huge economic losses in Xinmo Village, Mao County, Sichuan Province, China. In this study, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) datasets acquired by X-band TerraSAR-X, Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar-2 (PALSAR-2) aboard the Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 (ALOS-2), and C-band Sentinel-1 over the disaster area were collected and analyzed to characterize this landslide. The high-resolution TerraSAR-X intensity images were used to evaluate the landslide disaster and delineate the sliding area. Afterwards, two ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 image pairs and a stack of 45 Sentinel-1 images were processed to detect precursory movements of the landslide surface, using the conventional differential InSAR (DInSAR) method and advanced time series InSAR analysis. The unstable source area near the ridge was identified from the displacement rate map derived from Sentinel-1 datasets. The maximum displacement rate detected at the source area was ?35mm/year along the radar line of sight (LOS) direction. The time series of LOS displacements over 2 years presents an easily discerned seasonal evolution pattern. In particular, a sudden acceleration of the displacement, dozens of days before the collapse was clearly captured by the Sentinel-1 observations, which might suggest that early warning of landslide disasters is possible given the availability of operational SAR data acquired in frequent repeat-pass mode, such as the Sentinel-1 twin-satellite constellation.     

中国喜马拉雅山地区滑坡堵江编目及空间特征分析

滑坡堵江数据获取与编目是其区域研究开展的基础。喜马拉雅山脉地处中国西南边陲,新构造运动强烈,滑坡堵江事件频发,在产生巨大经济损失的同时也造成了不良国际影响。鉴于该区区域滑坡堵江现场调查难以开展的问题,本文利用遥感技术、地理信息技术,结合野外验证获取了区内136处滑坡堵江事件的空间位置、基本属性和几何形态,建立了中国喜马拉雅山地区滑坡堵江编目。区内滑坡堵江集中分布在米林、札达、加查、错那、隆子、郎县等县,成因类型以滑坡、崩塌、泥石流为主。基于环境要素信息量计算得出该区滑坡堵江的易发程度随高程、坡度、地震加速度的增大先增大后减小,随地震点密度增大先减小后增大,随构造线密度增大逐渐增大,随与水系距离增大逐渐减小。不同坡向中,西向斜坡更容易诱发滑坡堵江,东南坡向最不容易诱发滑坡堵江。高位高山地貌类型、地层条件中的朗县构造混杂岩组和坚硬岩组,构造分区中的高喜马拉雅分区和雅鲁藏布江分区是滑坡堵江形成的有利条件。对比各环境要素不同类别的信息量取值认为影响该区滑坡堵江事件形成的主要背景因素是高程、地貌类型、地层岩组、构造分区和地震点密度。这些滑坡堵江事件几何参数的研究结果表明坝体长度-坝体面积与滑坡面积-坝体面积之间具有拟合程度较高的乘幂函数关系,而其他参数间的相关性并不突出。