黄河流域气候与农业种植面积变化对径流的影响

根据黄河流域1960—2005年5个水文站逐日流量、77个气象站1959—2013年逐日降水数据,结合流域内主要农作物种植面积及大型水库资料,全面探讨气候与农业面积变化及人类活动对黄河流域径流变化的影响.研究表明:黄河流域所有流量分位数总体呈下降趋势,并于1980s中后期到1990s中期发生突变.降水变化是黄河流域径流变化的主要影响因素.在考虑不同流量分位数情况下,农作物种植面积变化对不同分位数径流变化的影响也有差异性.花园口站农作物种植面积变化对径流量量级和可变性均有显著影响;其余4站各项气候变化与农作物种植指标参数较大,虽均未达到10%的显著性水平,但仍会对径流的量级变化产生影响.对唐乃亥站,农作物耕作面积的下降减少了灌溉用水,在0.5流量分位数时有高达60%增加径流量的间接作用.对于头道拐站,农作物耕作面积的增加使得流域总蒸发量增加,灌溉用水增加,在0.3流量分位数时有高达40%减少径流量的间接作用.该研究为气候变化与人类活动影响下黄河流域水资源优化配置提供重要理论依据.     

Solar activity and climatic variability in the time interval from 10 to 250 Ma ago

The climatic variability in the past on the time scales from several tens to several hundreds of million years has been analyzed based on the paleoclimatic data with a time resolution of several years (the variations in the fossil tree ring widths, varve). The revealed periodicity in the climatic parameters correlates with the observed solar activity cyclicity, which indicates that this periodicity effectively influences climate changes independently of differences in the climatic conditions in the considered interval.     

Spectrum of climatic variations and their causal mechanisms

This paper surveys the history of the Earth's climate and deals with facts, techniques, and causes. A review of climatic history since the origin of the Earth demonstrates the changes and variability of our climate along different scales. These variations can probably be fully understood only when taking into account both external forcing and non-linear interactions between the components of the climatic system: atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. At least, as far as boundary conditions and forcing are concerned for the 10⁸ to 10⁹ yr time scale, atmospheric composition, solar evolution, and tectonism have to be considered, while variations of the Earth's orbital elements, and subsequently of the insolation, best explain the glacial-interglacial occurrences during the Quaternary Period. For shorter time scales, volcanic dust, solar activity, sea surface temperatures, and atmosphere-ocean autovariations have to be taken into account. Furthermore, the man-made effects have now to be considered: atmospheric loading of dust and air pollution particles, changes in surface albedo, and mainly the increasing rise of atmospheric CO₂ and other trace gases adding to a greenhouse effect.This man-made warming effect of future CO₂ increase will probably emerge as a clearly recognizable trend against the background of natural climatic fluctuations by the end of this century. This carbon dioxide induced super-interglacial will be superimposed on the expected natural long-term cooling trend of the ice age chronology.     

Solar activity and cosmic ray variations as a factor of intensity of cyclonic processes at midlatitudes

Long-period variations in the cyclonic activity at middle and subpolar latitudes of the North Atlantic are studied on the basis of the data from the MSLP archive of the surface pressure (Climatic Research Unit, UK) for 1874–1995. It has been found that in the cold half year (the period of the most intense formation and development of extra-tropical cyclones) in the studied region, oscillations of the surface pressure with periods close to the main periods of solar activity (～80 and ～11 years) are observed. The obtained results make it possible to assume that solar activity and related variations in the galactic cosmic rays are one of the factors influencing the intensity of cyclonic processes at midlatitudes on the time scales of ～10 to ～100 years.     

Correlated seasonal and climatic variations of trace constituents in the stratosphere

Summary Spectrometric experiments performed, in November 1976, within the framework of the Latitude Survey Mission on board the NASA Convair 990 from Ames Research Center are briefly deseribed. The results presented concern odd nitrogen molecules, HCl and water vapor. In terms of vertical column density, HNO₃ is predominant over NO+NO₂ at all latitudes higher than 40 degrees. A seasonal variation of NO₂ abundance is observed, with larger values in the summer hemisphere at high latitude. The mean zenith column density of HCl above 11 km is 1.5×10¹⁵ mol.cm^–2, with no evidence for any seasonal or climatic variation. Local number densities as high as 1.4×10¹⁰ mol.cm^–3 for HNO₃ and 5.4×10¹⁴ mol.cm^–3 for water vapor have been measured during the same flight near 11 km.     

Solar dynamo and geomagnetic activity

The correlation between geomagnetic activity and the sunspot number in the 11-year solar cycle exhibits long-term variations due to the varying time lag between the sunspot-related and non-sunspot related geomagnetic activity, and the varying relative amplitude of the respective geomagnetic activity peaks. As the sunspot-related and non-sunspot related geomagnetic activity peaks are caused by different solar agents, related to the solar toroidal and poloidal fields, respectively, we use their variations to derive the parameters of the solar dynamo transforming the poloidal field into toroidal field and back. We find that in the last 12 cycles the solar surface meridional circulation varied between 5 and 20 m/s (averaged over latitude and over the sunspot cycle), the deep circulation varied between 2.5 and 5.5 m/s, and the diffusivity in the whole of the convection zone was ～10⁸ m²/s. In the last 12 cycles solar dynamo has been operating in moderately diffusion dominated regime in the bulk of the convection zone. This means that a part of the poloidal field generated at the surface is advected by the meridional circulation all the way to the poles, down to the tachocline and equatorward to sunspot latitudes, while another part is diffused directly to the tachocline at midlatitudes, “short-circuiting” the meridional circulation. The sunspot maximum is the superposition of the two surges of toroidal field generated by these two parts of the poloidal field, which is the explanation of the double peaks and the Gnevyshev gap in sunspot maximum. Near the tachocline, dynamo has been operating in diffusion dominated regime in which diffusion is more important than advection, so with increasing speed of the deep circulation the time for diffusive decay of the poloidal field decreases, and more toroidal field is generated leading to a higher sunspot maximum. During the Maunder minimum the dynamo was operating in advection dominated regime near the tachocline, with the transition from diffusion dominated to advection dominated regime caused by a sharp drop in the surface meridional circulation which is in general the most important factor modulating the amplitude of the sunspot cycle.     

Solar activity and geomagnetic disturbances

An analysis of IZNIRAN magnetic observatory data indicated that geomagnetic storms with sudden and gradual commencements form two independent populations with respect to the disturbance occurrence time and character because the solar sources of these disturbances are different. Storms with sudden and gradual commencements are caused by coronal mass ejections and high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes, respectively.     

African and Atlantic short-term climatic variations described from Meteosat water vapor channel

Pluriannual series of Meteosat-2 water vapor (WV) images are used to build average maps of decadal and monthly brightness temperatures in the 6.3 μm channel. This processing is applied to all the 3-hourly scenes, clear or cloudy, for July 1983 to July 1987. The ISCCP cloudiness analyses confirm that the warmest spots in the monthly WV images correspond to scenes either clear or covered with low clouds, whereas the coldest areas correspond to scenes where cloud tops above 440 hPa frequently occur. The WV statistics are then used to characterize seasonal and interannual variations of both the ITCZ (InterTropical Convergence Zone) and the warm (dry) areas, corresponding to subtropical subsidence. Thanks mainly to the seasonal variations, relationships between the variations in the ITCZ and in dry subtropical areas can be studied. It is shown that, for the Meteosat sector, a wetter subtropical high troposphere is associated with an enhanced activity of the ITCZ, and vice versa. For this area where the north-south assymetry is large, the negative water vapor feedback previously proposed seems not to occur.     

Fractal dimension of changes in the solar magnetic field energy and quasi-biennial solar activity variations

Using the data of 1960–1999 on solar magnetic fields on the source surface and the Higuchi method, the fractal dimension of changes in the solar magnetic field energy at various heliolatitudes and in different time intervals is analyzed. The fractal dimension obtained on a moving 1-year interval displays substantial time variations. The 11-year cycle, which dominates at high latitudes, and quasi-biennial variations (QBVs), which dominate at low latitudes and are similar to QBVs of solar activity indices, are traced in these variations. Thus, solar QBVs that appear in all heliomagnetic activity indices are also present in the fractal structure of the solar magnetic field variations.     

Solar activity secular cycles

Long-term variations in solar activity secular cycles have been studied using a method for the expansion of reconstructed sunspot number series Sn(t) for 11400 years in terms of natural orthogonal functions. It has been established that three expansion components describe more than 98% of all Sn(t) variations. In this case, the contribution of the first expansion component is about 92%. The averaged form of the 88year secular cycle has been determined based on the form of the first expansion coordinate function. The quasi-periodicities modulating the secular cycle have been revealed based on the time function conjugate to the first function. The quasi-periodicities modulating the secular cycle coincide with those observed in the Sn(t) series spectrum. A change in the secular cycle form and the time variations in this form are described by the second and third expansion components, the contributions of which are about 4 and 2%, respectively. The variations in the steepness of the secular cycle branches are more pronounced in the 200-year cycle, and the secular cycle amplitude varies more evidently in the 2300-year cycle.     

Natural climatic oscillations driven by solar activity

Many climatic parameters (ground and ocean surface temperatures, pressure, atmospheric precipitation, etc.) have temporal variations with characteristic periods from several to several tens of years or more. The unknown cause of these oscillations, together with the similarity of some of them to known solar cycles, has stimulated attempts to relate these two phenomena. The basic arguments against the existence of such a relationship are that variations in climatic parameters do not always occur synchronously with the corresponding 11- and 22-year solar cycles: the phase shift between climatic and solar variations is inconstant and changes with time from 0° to 180°. In addition, the energy of terrestrial manifestations of solar activity seems insufficient to stimulate the considered weather-climatic processes, at least within the limits of the linear approach. In the present work, it is shown that in some cases, these contradictions can be removed for variations with a period more than 11 years under the assumption that climatic variations are forced oscillations driven by an external force (for example, a force related to solar activity), that implies the existence of intrinsic (natural) climatic oscillations. The result serves as an additional argument in favor of the reality of a sun-climate connection and probably points to its probable nonlinear mechanism.     

Solar EUV/FUV irradiance variations: analysis and observational strategy

The knowledge of solar extreme and far ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance variations is essential for the characterization of the Earth’s upper atmosphere. For a long time, this knowledge has been based on empirical models, which are themselves based on proxies of the solar activity. However, the accurate modeling and prediction of the Earth’s upper atmosphere necessitate to improve the precision on the irradiance and its variations below about 200 nm. Here, we present a review of recent works made by the authors that aim at quantifying the irradiance variability at these wavelengths, and that lead to new way of monitoring the solar EUV/FUV irradiance spectrum. In more details, it is shown that the quantification of the high level of redundancy in the solar spectrum variability allows to envisage measuring only a small portion of the spectrum without losing essential knowledge. Finally, we discuss what should and could be measured in order to retrieve the solar extreme and far ultraviolet spectrum.     

Solar activity levels in 2100

Mark A Clilverd, Ellen Clarke, Henry Rishbeth, Toby D G Clark and Thomas Ulich look forward to a little less solar activity in 2100, using direct and proxy records of past solar and geomagnetic activity.     

Solar activity and life: a review

During the early stages of the study of the origin of life, not enough attention was paid to the question of the correlation of chemical evolution on Earth and the all-important evolution of the still-to-be understood early Sun. Today, due to the advent of a significant fleet of space missions and the possibility of performing experiments in the International Space Station (ISS), a meaningful study begins to be possible concerning factors that led to an early onset of life on Earth. We wish to review and update recent work concerning the frontier between Space Weather (SpW) and Astrobiology. We argue that the present robust programs of various space agencies reinforce our hope for a better understanding of the bases of Astrobiology. Eventually, with a more realistic model of the Sun, more reliable discussions of all the factors influencing the origin of life on Earth, and hence Astrobiology, will be possible.     

全球气候变化的成因初探

温室效应不是气候变化的唯一因素,温室气体的主体不是二氧化碳而是水汽.当水汽凝聚为云,就会遮蔽阳光,起到降温作用.太阳辐射量变化不足以解释气候变化的振幅,关键在于存在太阳能量积累和释放的多种效应,其中“海底藏冷效应”和“海洋锅炉效应”最为显著.太阳能在地球各圈层的不同分配也是地表气候变化的原因之一,其中“地磁层漏能效应”和“臭氧洞漏能效应”最为显著.气候变化周期是天文周期微力激发的结果,其能量来自太阳能量的长期积累.目前处于1500～1800年气候周期的变暖高峰,200年气候周期的变冷初期,60年气候周期的变冷阶段.本文通过历史资料反复核对,证实太阳黑子延长极小期、太阳黑子周期长度大于11年时期、潮汐极大期、低温有明显的对应关系,已经查出重复出现两个连续周期,除太阳活动变化外,强潮汐是其形成的原因.全球气候有准60年、200年、18000年等周期,这些周期与潮汐周期有很好的对应关系.特别是179～200年周期,在太阳黑子活动、潮汐变化和冷暖变化中都有明显的表现,形成对应的周期规律.分析结果显示,气候冷暖变化的原因不只限于大气层本身,而确有可用于气候预测的星体运行的变化信息.规律表明,2007年开始的太阳黑子延长极小期和潮汐极大期使我国可能进入严重低温冻害时期,并将在2020年达到高潮,必须做好预防准备.     

Effects of CO2-induoed climatic changes on soowpack and streamflow

Abstract

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂) may double during the next century, causing changes in the Earth's climate. Warming of up to 4°C, slight cooling, and 10% changes in precipitation have been projected. Researchers have studied the possible impacts these changes may have on various aspects of the hydrological cycle, but little emphasis has been placed on snow accumulation and melt. In this study, the effects of climatic change on streamflow from a snowmelt-dominated basin in southwestern Montana, USA, are investigated. The National Weather Service River Forecast System model (NWSRFS) was first calibrated using data for the 1973–1984 period. Daily temperature and precipitation values were then changed, and the model ran again to assess the effects on snowpack and streamflow of some possible climatic changes. Results indicate that streamflow may vary by from ?22 to +45% depending on the combination of climatic changes imposed.     

Solar magnetic activity: topology and prediction

We ascribe the solar magnetic activity to the interplay between the plasma flow and the magnetic field. Observations by SOHO, Hinode and upcoming SDO are discussed. We then discuss the understanding and modeling of solar magnetic activity based on mathematical topological concepts. We present predictions using neural networks. Further we describe the outcome of the cycle 24 prediction panel. Finally, recommendations are given for making improved predictions.     

Solar magnetic field distribution and geomagnetic activity

Summary Regularities in the solar background magnetic field distribution are described and some of their specific patterns and their structures are studied. The influence of the solar differential rotation on the behaviour of Magnetic Active Longitudes is demonstrated. The origin of some specific details different in both polarities is discussed. The relation of this longitudinal solar magnetic field distribution to the longitudinal distribution of the daily geomagnetic character figures C9 is investigated. Some correlational characteristics are given. The specific Index of Geomagnetic Recurrence is estimated and the changes of its values in time are demonstrated.

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