1999-2015年汛后小浪底水库典型支流口门淤积发展影响分析

支流作为水库综合效益发挥的重要组成部分,其河口泥沙大幅淤积会影响水库综合效益的发挥.选取多沙河流水库黄河小浪底库区畛水、石井两支流作为典型实例,在对1999-2015年汛后水库的来水来沙、水库调度、库区干支流淤积量与形态分析基础上,研究干支流淤积形态的变化,重点研究支流口门拦门沙坎抬升变化特征,结果表明：支流的分流及淤积与入库流量、含沙量及库区的淤积形态有关.入库流量越大,支流分流比小,支流淤积规模小;入库含沙量越大,支流分沙比越大,支流淤积规模越大.     

金沙江下游梯级水库运行后三峡水库高洪水期入库水沙特性

泥沙淤积问题直接影响着三峡水库的使用寿命及综合效益的发挥,研究其入库水沙特性对于解决水库泥沙淤积问题具有重要意义。根据水文站实测数据,分析了三峡水库入库水沙输移特性及来源组成变化,重点研究了金沙江下游梯级水库运行后的三峡水库高洪水期入库水沙特性。结果表明:2003—2021年,三峡水库入库泥沙集中于汛期的高洪水期,2013年以后该现象更为显著,泥沙来源也由金沙江为主转变为嘉陵江为主。寸滩站洪峰流量高于50000 m³/s的高洪水期三峡入库沙量显著大于30000～50000 m³/s区间的高洪水期,三峡水库泥沙调度关键在于上游发生编号洪水期间。三峡水库上游沱江或嘉陵江等支流发生流域性大洪水时,易引起高洪水期入库水沙出现“小水大沙”的特点。金沙江下游梯级水库运行后,三峡水库高洪水期入库泥沙大幅减少,中小洪水调度期间泥沙淤积量也大幅减小。研究结果可为三峡水库的泥沙精细化调度和长期高效使用提供基础数据支撑。     

近20年来三峡水库泥沙淤积及其对库区的影响

泥沙问题是三峡工程建设与运行中的关键技术问题之一,只有妥善处理好泥沙问题,才能保证三峡工程长期有效使用,维持水库功能的全面发挥。本文首先结合实测水文、河道地形观测资料,对三峡水库运行近20年来的泥沙淤积特性及水库排沙比进行了较为全面的分析研究,并与已有研究成果进行了对比;其次,围绕防洪、航运以及坝前段的泥沙淤积等方面,进一步分析了水库淤积产生的影响。结果表明:三峡水库蓄水以来,在不考虑区间来沙的情况下,三峡水库共淤积泥沙20.484亿t,近似年均淤积1.102亿t,水库排沙比为23.6%,水库年均淤积量为原论证预测值的33%。其中,库区干流段累计淤积泥沙17.835亿m³(变动回水区冲刷0.694亿m³;常年回水区淤积18.529亿m³),淤积在水库防洪库容内的泥沙为1.648亿m³(干、支流分别淤积1.517亿m³和0.131亿m³),占水库防洪库容的0.74%,“十一五”攻关阶段研究得出的多年平均淤积量及排沙比较实测值均偏大,变动回水区冲淤则出现反向的...     

三峡水库区间来沙量估算及水库排沙效果分析

三峡水库是控制和开发长江的重要工程,具有巨大的防洪、发电、航运等综合效益.水库排沙比是反映水库拦截泥沙程度的重要指标.针对目前三峡水库排沙比计算没有考虑三峡水库区间来沙,结果偏大的问题,依据三峡水库区间水文站2003-2016年实测水文资料,采用水文学法估算了三峡水库区间月、年入库输沙量,分析了三峡水库排沙效果及主要影响因素.结果表明：1）三峡水库区间年均来沙量约1775×10⁴ t,占总入库沙量的10.3%,近年来沙占比有所增大,其中2013-2016年来沙量占总入库沙量的26.9%;2）三峡水库年均排沙比为21.6%,其中围堰蓄水期为34.1%,初期蓄水期为17.0%,试验性蓄水期为15.4%;3）三峡水库采用"蓄清排浑"方式运行,主汛期7-9月的排沙比一般大于枯季,但2013年以后,出现了主汛期排沙比小于枯季的现象;4）入库细颗粒泥沙的排沙比大于粗颗粒泥沙,其中粒径d ≤ 0.062 mm的细颗粒泥沙排沙比为23.4%,0.062 mm0.125 mm的中粗沙排沙比分别为5.5%和11.1%;5）三峡水库排沙比汛期主要受V/Q影响,枯季主要受入库含沙量的影响;当V/Q约为170×10⁴ s时,水库排沙效果最差;分别建立了汛期和枯季排沙比经验计算式.本文的研究成果可为三峡水库水沙优化调度等提供参考.     

基于误差分布估计的三峡水库入库洪水概率预报方法

准确、及时的入库洪水预报,对三峡水库综合效益的发挥和长江流域水旱灾害防御、水资源利用、流域综合管理等具有重要作用。基于预报误差的最优分布估计和分布函数动态参数假定,提出了一种三峡水库入库洪水概率预报方法,并进行了洪水概率预报业务试验。结果表明:本文所提方法科学可行,计算快捷,使用方便,便于在实时作业预报中应用推广;概率预报结果较确定性预报结果,在水量预报、预警效果等方面均有所改善,1～5 d预见期预报的确定性系数提高0.1%～3.4%,水量误差减少0.1%～4.8%,可为三峡水库实时调度提供更可靠的预报信息;所提出的三峡水库入库洪水概率预报业务化产品,可提供更多风险信息,为三峡水库的科学调度,尤其是洪水资源化利用提供更好的优化决策支撑。     

辽宁省大伙房水库及入库河流水质空间特征与河库水质关系

入库河流与水库存在空间上的连续性,河流污染物输入是水库水质恶化的主要原因,对大伙房水库及其入库支流61个采样点的水质状况进行调查,并运用聚类分析和主成分分析对大伙房水库及入库支流的水质空间特性和主要污染物进行分析.聚类分析显示,按照水质相似性将大伙房水库及入库支流水质可分为上游区、下游区和库区3个典型空间区域.分别对3个区域进行主成分分析,结果显示:入库支流上游区和下游区水质主要影响因素为氨氮、总氮和化学需氧量,库区影响水质的主要因素为温度、p H值、浊度、溶解氧、电导率、氨氮和总氮.对上游、下游和库区水质均有显著影响的因子为氨氮和总氮,上游区、下游区和库区氨氮浓度均值分别为0.06、0.10和0.19 mg/L,总氮浓度均值分别为0.13、0.16和0.26 mg/L.入库河流下游区对水库水质影响较大,受社河和浑河污染物输入的影响,大伙房水库水质在空间上呈现社河入库区水质优于浑河入库区水质.并且库区氨氮和总氮浓度均与距岸边距离呈负相关,溶解氧和p H值均与距入库口距离呈负相关,表明入库河流污染物输入和环库区面源污染均对大伙房水库水质产生一定影响.     

适应水文非一致条件的水库防洪优化调度

为完善变化环境下水库防洪调度方案,建立了集水文非一致性诊断、水文模型还现、设计洪水计算与水库调度规则优化于一体的水库适应性调控方法体系,并应用于沂沭泗水系仕阳水库.结果表明,仕阳水库入库洪水变异点发生在1975年;利用新安江模型对水文序列还现处理,得到满足一致性的设计洪水,其洪峰、最大24 h和最大72 h洪量均值,较原设计分别增大了 19.7%、14.5%和10.0%;建立了以防洪效益最大为目标函数的水库优化调度模型,采用动态规划进行求解.提出的适应性调度方案在20年、100年、1000年和5000年一遇设计洪水条件下,较水库现行设计方案最高洪水位分别降低了0.32、0.11、0.19和0.11 m.     

金沙江下游梯级水库泥沙淤积和坝下河道冲刷规律

金沙江下游4个梯级水电站总装机容量相当于两座三峡水库,是“西电东送”中部地区的源头工程,工程效益发挥对经济社会发展意义重大。2012年以来,向家坝、溪洛渡、乌东德和白鹤滩电站等陆续蓄水运行,层层拦截金沙江的泥沙,2013—2020年向家坝出库年输沙量均值下降至152万t,减幅超过99%。大量泥沙淤积在梯级水库内,同时向家坝以下河道发生长距离冲刷。本文以自金沙江下游工程筹建以来的观测资料为基础,针对梯级水库的泥沙淤积和坝下游河道冲刷规律开展研究,结果表明:金沙江下游四个梯级电站自建成运行至2020年底,累计淤积泥沙约5.98亿m³,其中溪洛渡库区淤积量占比达92.5%,2013-2020年溪洛渡和向家坝水库排沙比分别为2.64%和22.2%,其水库泥沙主要淤积在常年回水区的干流河道内,以死库容内淤积为主,侵占有效库容的比例小于1.3%。金沙江下游库区干流河道的峡谷特征明显,淤积多表现为主河槽的平铺式淤高。溪洛渡和向家坝库区淤积的泥沙沿程分选特征明显,越靠近坝前,中数粒径减小、细颗粒泥沙沙量百分数增加,极细颗粒泥沙会在库区一定范围内大量沉积。向家坝下游河床普遍冲刷,但...     

汉江上游安康东段全新世古洪水沉积学与水文学研究

通过沿汉江上游河谷深入的考察,在安康东段发现了典型的古洪水滞流沉积剖面.通过采集样品、实验分析,确定它们是古洪水在高水位滞流环境当中的悬移质沉积物.根据地层对比、OSL测年和相关文化层年代,确定它们分别记录了发生在BL+AL与YD事件转折阶段(12500 a B.P.)的古洪水事件和发生在1000-900 a B.P.(1000-1100AD),即北宋后期的洪水事件.根据古洪水SWD的高程恢复其洪峰水位,结合相关参数,利用面积比降法计算恢复流量.结果表明在万年尺度,汉江上游古洪水洪峰流量介于35970~47400 m³/s之间.同时,利用2010年大洪水洪痕恢复计算洪峰流量,对古洪水洪峰流量计算结果进行了验证.进而结合历史洪水和观测洪水数据,获得了汉江上游万年尺度洪水洪峰流量与频率关系.这为汉江上游的水利水电和交通工程建设以及沿岸城镇防洪减灾提供了基础性数据.     

基于Copula函数的连河通江湖泊防洪安全设计:以洪泽湖为例

湖泊作为一种蓄水单元,尤其是大型过水性湖泊,是一种典型的平原型水库,在功能上与山谷型水库具有许多相似之处,但由于其特殊的地理地形构造,使得入湖洪水过程与入库洪水过程存在着较大的差异.在防洪安全设计研究中,山谷型水库关注的多是坝址洪水,即总的入库洪水过程,而对于湖泊来说,还需要关注各个分区的入湖洪水过程对湖区洪水演进的影响.针对大型过水性湖泊入湖洪水特征,本文采用Copula函数构造了多个联合分布函数,提出了一套基于总的入湖洪水过程推导各个分区入湖洪水过程置信区间的方法.以洪泽湖为应用实例,结果表明:1)在联合重现期已知的情况下,该方法能够确定总入湖洪量与洪峰的95%置信区间;2)该方法通过径流相关性分析对入湖河道合并聚类,形成分区入湖过程,既考虑了河道间天然的水文、水力联系,又避免了联合分布函数维度过高的问题;3)在总入湖洪量已知的情况下,该方法能够确定各分区入湖洪量分配95%置信区域.该方法具有较强的统计理论基础,拓展了多变量洪水频率分析技术在水利工程实际中的应用范围.     

Frequency analysis for predicting 1% annual maximum water levels along Florida coast,US

In the Coastal Flood Insurance Study by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA, 2005), 1% annual maximum coastal water levels are used in coastal flood hazard mitigation and engineering design in coastal areas of USA. In this study, a frequency analysis method has been developed to provide more accurate predictions of 1% annual maximum water levels for the Florida coast waters. Using 82 and 94 years of annual maximum water level data at Pensacola and Fernandina, performances of traditional frequency analysis methods, including advanced method of Generalized Extreme Value distribution method, have been evaluated. Comparison with observations of annual maximum water levels with 83 and 95 years of return periods indicate that traditional methods are unable to provide satisfactory predictions of 1% annual maximum water levels to account for hurricane‐induced extreme water levels. Based on the characteristics of annual maximum water level distribution of Pensacola and Fernandina stations, a new probability distribution method has been developed in this study. Comparison with observations indicates that the method presented in this study significantly improves the accuracy of predictions of 1% annual maximum water levels. For Fernandina station, predictions of extreme water level match well with the general trend of observations. With a correlation coefficient of 0·98, the error for the maximum observed extreme water level of 3·11 m (National Geodetic Vertical Datum) with 95 years of return period is 0·92%. For Pensacola station, the prediction error for the maximum observed extreme water level with a return period of 83 years is 5·5%, with a correlation value of 0·98. The frequency analysis has also been reasonably compared to the more costly Monte Carlo simulation method. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多目标驱动的太湖调度水位研究

太湖是流域洪水集散地、水资源调配中心,也是长三角水生态环境的晴雨表,其水位高低影响防洪、供水、水生态、水环境等系统功能,使得太湖面临统筹调度问题日益凸显。本文以太湖为主要研究对象,基于多年实测数据,采用数理统计、河网水动力模型计算,分析流域降雨、进出湖水量和水生态环境演变规律及其与太湖水位的互馈关系,综合考虑不同调度期流域防洪、供水、水生态、水环境目标及其承受风险的时空差异性,优化太湖调度水位,并在此基础上提出太湖调度功能区划图。结果表明,在设计洪水和供水条件下,通过调度水位调整,统筹调控流域水工程,前期预降太湖水位,后期适抬太湖水位,实现太湖多目标调度,可有效保障流域防洪、供水和航运安全,改善河湖生态环境,共绘美丽太湖。     

1993年太湖流域的洪涝灾害及水利工程的作用

1993年汛期太湖最高水位高居建国以来的第3位,仅次于1991年和1954年,达到4.51m(平均水位,下同),局部地区发生了洪涝灾害。本文对1993年太湖流域汛期的雨情和水情做了论述,并对1993、1991、1954年三个典型大水年的降雨和洪水特征作了比较。同时,还对洪涝灾害和水利工程的作用进行分析。太湖流域的雨季一般为5—7月,但是1993年汛期的降雨在时间上的分布有些异常。降雨集中在8月,而河道最高水位则出现在8月下旬。降雨的空间分布有以下3个特征:(1)上游地区的降雨集中在浙西山区;(2)太湖湖区的降雨量很大;(3)下游地区的降雨集中在淀泖和杭嘉湖地区。淀泖和杭嘉湖地区一些水位站的实测河道水位,比发生大洪水的1991年还要高。发生洪涝灾害的原因可归纳为,上游地区洪水来量大,当地的降雨强度高,以及下游河道排水不畅通。为了改进防汛调度和完善治理规划,需要对不同典型洪水年份的降雨和洪水模式做进一步研究。     

FluBiDi – a model to estimate flood based on runoff: validation using extreme and natural basin conditions

FluBiDi is a two-dimensional model created to simulate real events that can take days and months, as well as short events (minutes or hours) and inclusive laboratory tests. To verify the robustness of FluBiDi, it was tested using a previous study with both designed and real digital elevation models. The results highlight good agreement between the models (i.e. Mike Flood, SOBEK, ISIS 2D, and others) tested and FluBiDi (around 90% for a specific instant and 95% for the complete time simulation). In the simulated hydrographs, the discharge peak value, time to peak, and water level results were accurate, reproducing them with an error of less than 5%. The velocity differences observed in a couple of tests in FluBiDi were associated with very short periods of time (seconds). However, FluBiDi is highly accurate for simulating floods under real topographical conditions with differences of around 2 cm when water depth is around 150 cm. The average water depth and velocities are precise, and the model describes with high accuracy the pattern and extent of floods. FluBiDi has the capability to be adjusted to different types of events and only requires limited input data.     

Flooding and drying mechanisms of the seasonal Sudd flood plains along the Bahr el Jebel in southern Sudan

Abstract

The flooding and drying mechanisms of the seasonal flood plains of the Sudd swamps in southern Sudan are, while dependent on the river levels, influenced by a complex interaction between soil, vegetation, topography and seasonal trends in rainfall and evapotranspiration. Based on field measurements, these components have been assessed in detail and evaluated regarding their function in the seasonal cycle of flooding and drying. A detailed analysis of soil and evapotranspiration conditions, as well as the interaction with vegetation and meteorological conditions, has been conducted using field and laboratory experiments. Sources, processes, flow directions and the fate of the floodwaters on both the river-fed seasonal flood plains and the rain-fed grasslands have been established. The results show that river spill is responsible for flooding these areas while no return flow occurs, and drying is caused by evapotranspiration. Rainfall can only cause temporary flooding in extreme events.

Citation Petersen, G. & Fohrer, N. (2010) Flooding and drying mechanisms of the seasonal Sudd flood plains along the Bahr el Jebel in southern Sudan. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(1), 4–16.     

太湖流域水问题及对策探讨

系统回顾了太湖流域自古以来的治水历史和经验教训,详细介绍了新中国成立后太湖治理进展和取得成就,分析 了当前流域存在的主要水问题,指出流域仍存在防洪减灾能力偏低、水资源调控能力不足、水污染严重、水资源和水环境 承载能力偏低等问题．这些问题如不能得到及时解决,将成为今后流域经济社会可持续发展的严重制约因素．在此基础 上,提出了要加快构建流域防洪减灾体系、流域水资源调控体系、流域水生态环境保护体系、流域现代化管理和调度体系 等四大体系的对策,实现太湖流域水资源“引得进、蓄得住、排得出、可调控”的目标,以太湖流域水资源可持续利用支撑 和保障流域经济社会的可持续发展．     

太湖流域省市边界圩区建设问题初探

太湖流域的苏、浙、沪边界地区地处太湖流域下游,地势低洼,水网纵横,是太湖流域洪涝威胁最严重和水环境恶化地区,同时因为地处省市行政区边界,水利矛盾极为突出.解决好边界圩区问题,有利于减轻流域洪涝灾害,促进水资源保护,水环境恢复.本文分析了太湖流域二省一市边界圩区的发展历史和现状,归纳了边界圩区的格局和特点.考虑到防洪、水资源、水环境的影响,从圩区面积、圩内水面率和圩堤线长度几个方面对边界圩区做了研究,给出了边界圩区合适的圩区规模和圩内排涝动力,在此基础上,就边界圩区的建设提出了建议.研究表明,边界圩区的理想规模是400-533hm2,排涝模数为0.83m3/(s·km2).圩区建设应该局部服从整体利益,采用有效的协商机制解决边界圩区的矛盾.     

近40年来长江下游干流洪水位变化及原因初探

最近十年来,江苏境内长江下游干流汛期最高潮位连续偏高,持续时间亦明显偏长。造成防汛工作紧张,引起政府有关部门的重视,水利部门将治理长江作为重点工作。本文利用长江下游干流大通水文站和以下各潮位站的实测水位流量资料对１９９８年和１９５４年的特大洪水水情进行了对比,分析了从六十年代到九十年代长江下游平均洪水量,平均最高水位和平均最高潮位,超过防洪警厌水位的平均天数等的变化规律。     

FROM DROUGHT TO FLOOD: CATCHMENT RESPONSES REVEALED USING NOVEL SOIL WATER PROBES

New soil water probes, developed at the Macaulay Land Use Research Institute (MLURI), were used in catchment studies during the transition from drought to flood, revealing insights into both spatial and temporal behaviour of water in the soil profile. Measured soil water content showed that the mineral horizons became progressively wetter upwards from the base of the profile, which was confirmed by linked hydrochemical studies. After severe droughts the amounts of water required to raise soils back to field capacity may have long-term consequences on water abstraction. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wadi flow in the Arabian Gulf states

Real data on wadi flood flows from Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain and Qatar were used to develop methodologies for the prediction of annual maximum flows and average monthly flows in the Arabian Gulf states. For the prediction of annual maximum floods, three methods have been investigated. In the first method, regional curves were developed and used together with the mean annual flood flow, estimated from the characteristics of the drainage basin, to estimate flood flows at a location in the basin. The second method fits data to various probability distribution functions, with a developed methodology introduced to account for floods generated by more than one system of climate, and the best fitted function was used for flood estimates. In the third method, only floods over a threshold, which depends on characteristics of the drainage basin, were considered and modelled. For the prediction of average monthly flows, stochastic simulation approaches of flood frequency analysis were used. Each of the prediction methods was verified by being applied in 40 different drainage basins. Based on the results obtained, recommendations were made on the best method to be applied (at present) by design engineers in the Arabian Gulf states. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.