A possible long-term solar impact on air temperature in relation to solar motion

Summary Using the long-term relations between solar motion and solar activity, long-term relations between solar activity and air temperature variations on the Earth's surface have been studied. A long-term periodicity in the period range from 25 to 250 years, corresponding to the periodicity of solar motion and solar activity, has been found in four very long European surface air temperature series. The positions of the spectral peaks approximately obey the relation p_i=178.7/i, i=1, 2, ... . Similar long-term patterns of solar and geomagnetic activity and of global surface air temperature have been found in the years 1861 to 1990. The results indicate that the solar activity impact on the climate could be significant, and that the prolonged minimum of solar activity, predicted from solar motion for the next 2 – 3 decades, could decreace global air temperatures.     

Ages of calderas,large explosive craters and active volcanoes in the Kuril-Kamchatka region,Russia

The ages of most of calderas, large explosive craters and active volcanoes in the Kuril-Kamchatka region have been determined by extensive geological, geomorphological, tephrochronological and isotopic geochronological studies, including more than 600 ¹⁴C dates. Eight Krakatoa-type and three Hawaiian-type calderas and no less than three large explosive craters formed here during the Holocene. Most of the Late Pleistocene Krakatoa-type calderas were established around 30 000–40 000 years ago. The active volcanoes are geologically very young, with maximum ages of about 40 000–50 000 years. The overwhelming majority of recently active volcanic cones originated at the very end of the Late Pleistocene or in the Holocene. These studies show that all Holocene stratovolcanoes in Kamchatka were emplaced in the Holocene only in the Eastern volcanic belt. Periods of synchronous, intensified Holocene volcanic activity occurred within the time intervals of 7500–7800 and 1300–1800 ¹⁴C years BP.     

Spectrum of geomagnetic activity in the period range 5–60 days: possible lunar influences

The series of daily Ap-indices has been subdivided into pentades (1932–1936 etc.) and spectra with fine-frequency resolution have been calculated for the indices in each of these intervals. Daily sunspot numbers have been processed in the same way. The average spectrum from all spectra in the pentades, as well as the spectrum from the whole interval have been calculated, and significant peaks have been determined. There is a significant difference between the spectra in the pentades containing the solar activity minimum (1932–1936, 1942–1946 etc.) and those containing the solar activity maximum (1937–1941, 1947–1951 etc.). Most peaks can be interpreted as a response to solar rotation and to the structure of solar wind speed (two high-speed streams per solar rotation), both modulated by the 11-year, annual and semi-annual waves. No significant peak corresponding to the period of the synodic month, or its half has been found. This result suggests that the influence of lunar cycles on some natural phenomena (if any) is not mediated by geomagnetic activity.     

Can origin of the 2400-year cycle of solar activity be caused by solar inertial motion?

A solar activity cycle of about 2400 years has until now been of uncertain origin. Recent results indicate it is caused by solar inertial motion. First we describe the 178.7-year basic cycle of solar motion. The longer cycle, over an 8000 year interval, is found to average 2402.2 years. This corresponds to the Jupiter/Heliocentre/Barycentre alignments (9.8855 × 243). Within each cycle an exceptional segment of 370 years has been found characterized by a looping pattern by a trefoil or quasitrefoil geometry. Solar activity, evidenced by ¹⁴C tree-ring proxies, shows the same pattern. Solar motion is computable in advance, so this provides a basis for future predictive assessments. The next 370-year segment will occur between AD 2240 and 2610.     

Possible link between multi-decadal climate cycles and periodic reversals of solar magnetic field polarity

The linkage between multi-decadal climate variability and activity of the sun has been long debated based upon observational evidence from a large number of instrumental and proxy records. It is difficult to evaluate the exact role of each of solar parameters on climate change since instrumentally measured solar related parameters such as Total Solar irradiance (TSI), Ultra Violet (UV), solar wind and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) fluxes are more or less synchronized and only extend back for several decades. Here we report tree-ring carbon-14 based record of 11-year/22-year solar cycles during the Maunder Minimum (17th century) and the early Medieval Maximum Period (9–10th century) to reconstruct the state of the sun and the flux of incoming GCRs. The result strongly indicates that the influence of solar cycles on climate is persistent beyond the period after instrumental observations were initiated. We find that the actual lengths of solar cycles vary depending on the status of long-term solar activity, and that periodicity of the surface air temperatures are also changing synchronously. Temperature variations over the 22-year cycles seem, in general, to be more significant than those associated with the 11-year cycles and in particular around the grand solar minima such as the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD). The polarity dependence of cooling events found in this study suggests that the GCRs can not be excluded from the possible drivers of decadal to multi-decadal climate change.     

A possible relation between geomagnetic activity and winter air surface temperatures in Prague

Summary A possible relation between the 10-day geomagnetic activity, solar activity and temperatures as measured at the meteorological station Prague - Klementinum in 1932–1975 was sought. It was found that: 1) Kp correlates with the surface temperature in Prague substantially better than Wolf's number R. 2) The correlation between Kp and the surface air temperature is not very close, but is significant at the level p=0.9! 3) If the QBO phase is taken into account, the correlations for the January and February decades of the years 1956–1975 improve as in [27] (van Loon, Labitzke).     

Mismatch between variations of solar indices, stratospheric ozone and UV-B observed at ground

In solar cycles 22–23, all solar indices showed maxima near 1990 and 2000 and minima in 1996. The maximum to minimum variation was only 1–2% in the UV range 240–350 nm. Dobson ozone intensities did not show any clear relationship with solar cycle and ozone variations were less than 10%. The UV-B (295–325 nm) observed at ground by Brewer spectrophotometers at some locations had variations of 50–100% for 295–300 nm, and 20–50% for 305–325 nm. The maxima were in different years at different locations (even with separations of only 300 km), did not match with the solar cycle, and were far too large to be explained on the basis of ozone changes (1% decrease of ozone is expected to cause 2% increase of UV-B). Thus, if the data are not bad, the UV-B changes do not match with solar activity or ozone changes and must be mostly due to other local effects (clouds, etc.?). When data are averaged over wide geographical regions, UV-B variation ranges are smaller (10–20%, probably because localised, highly varying cloud effects get filtered out), and are roughly as expected from ozone variations.     

Statistical analysis of earthquake activity at Etna volcano (March 1981 eruption)

Seismic activity that preceded, accompanied, and followed the 17–23 March 1981 Etnean eruption has been statistically analyzed.On the grounds of both time evolution of seismicity and catalogue completeness, three time intervals have been defined (12 February–2 March, 12–17 March, 19–31 March) and for each of these periods both the b coefficient of theGutenberg-Richter's (1956) relationship and the E parameter of the cluster size (Shlien andToksoz, 1970) have been calculated.No significant variations were observed between the first and third periods, while lower values of bothb andE coefficients were found in the second one. These findings might indicate that changes in the seismicity features occur just before the eruption start.Small but fast variations in the stress field acting on the volcano might originate this type of seismic activity, while the importance of the tectonic control on volcanic phenomena seems to be confirmed.     

Comparison of model electron densities and temperatures with Millstone Hill observations during undisturbed periods and the geomagnetic storms of 16–23 March and 6–12 April 1990

Measurements of F-region electron density and temperature at Millstone Hill are compared with results from the IZMIRAN time-dependent mathematical model of the Earths ionosphere and plasmasphere during the periods 16–23 March and 6–12 April 1990. Each of these two periods included geomagnetically quiet intervals followed by major storms. Satisfactory agreement between the model and the data is obtained during the quiet intervals, provided that the recombination rate of O⁺(⁴S) ions was decreased by a factor of 1.5 at all altitudes during the nighttime periods 17–18 March, 19–20 March, 6–8 April and 8–9 April in order to increase the NmF2 at night better to match observations. Good model/data agreement is also obtained during the storm periods when vibrationally excited N₂ brings about factor-of-2-4 reductions in daytime NmF2. Model calculations are carried out using different expressions for the O⁺ – O collision frequency for momentum transfer, and the best agreement between the electron-density measurements and the model results is obtained when the CEDAR interim standard formula for the O⁺ – O collision frequency is used. Deviations from the Boltzmann distribution for the first five vibrational levels of NI were calculated. The calculated distribution is highly non-Boltzmann at vibrational levels j > 2, and the Boltzmann distribution assumption results in the increase of 10–30% in calculated NmF2 during the storm-time periods. During the March storm at solar maximum the model results obtained using the EUVAC solar flux model agree a little better with the observations in comparison with the EUV94 solar flux model. For the April storm period of moderate solar activity the EUV94X model results agree better with the observations in comparison to the EUVAC model.     

High-precision 40Ar/39Ar sanidine geochronology of ignimbrites in the Mogollon-Datil volcanic field,southwestern New Mexico

⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age spectra have been obtained from 85 sanidine separates from 36 ignimbrites and one rhyolitic lava in the latest Eocene-Oligocene Mogollon-Datil volcanic field of southwestern New Mexico. Of the 97 measured age spectra, 94 yield weighted-mean plateau ages each giving single-spectrum 1 precision of±0.25%–0.4% (±0.07–0.14 Ma). Replicate plateau age determinations for eight different samples show within-sample 1 precisions averaging ±0.25%. Plateau ages from multiple (n=3–8) samples of individual ignimbrites show 1 within-unit precision of ±0.1%–0.4% (±0.04–0.13 Ma). This within-unit precision represents a several-fold improvement over published K-Ar data for the same ignimbrites, and is similar to the range of precisions reported from single-crystal laser fusion studies. A further indication of the high precision of unit-mean ⁴⁰Ar/³⁰Ar ages is their close agreement with independently established stratigraphic order. Two samples failed to meet plateau criteria, apparently due to geologic contamination by older feldspars. Effects of minor contamination are shown by six other samples, which yielded slightly anomalous plateau ages. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar plateau ages permit resolution of units differing in age by 0.5% (0.15 Ma) or less. This high resolution, combined with paleomagnetic studies, has helped to correlate ignimbrites among isolated ranges and has allowed development of an integrated timestratigraphic framework for the volcanic field. Mogollon-Datil ignimbrites range in age from 36.2 to 24.3 Ma. Ignimbrite activity was strongly episodic, being confined to four brief (<2.6 m.y.) eruptive episodes separated by 1–3 m.y. gaps. Ignimbrite activity generally tended to migrate from the southeast toward the north and west.     

EISCAT measurements of the solar wind

EISCAT observations of interplanetary scintillation have been used to measure the velocity of the solar wind at distances between 15 and 130R (solar radii) from the Sun. The results show that the solar wind consists of two distinct components, a fast stream with a velocity of 800 km s^–1 and a slow stream at 400 kms^–1. The fast stream appears to reach its final velocity much closer to the Sun than expected. The results presented here suggest that this is also true for the slow solar wind. Away from interaction regions the flow vector of the solar wind is purely radial to the Sun. Observations have been made of fast wind/slow wind interactions which show enhanced levels of scintillation in compression regions.     

Possible geothermal resources in the Coast Plutonic Complex of southern British Columbia,Canada

In southern British Columbia the terrestrial heat flow is low (44 mW m^–2) to the west of the Coast Plutonic Complex (CPC), average in CPC (50–60 mW m^–2),and high to the east(80–90 mW m^–2). The average heat flow in CPC and the low heat generation (less than 1 W m^–3) indicate that a relatively large amount of heat flows upwards into the crust which is generally quite cool. Until two million years ago the Explorer plate underthrust this part of the American plate, carrying crustal material into the mantle. Melted crustal rocks have produced the inland Pemberton and Garibaldi volcanic belts in the CPC.Meager Mountain, a volcanic complex in the CPC 150 km north of Vancouver, is a possible geothermal energy resource. It is the product of intermittent activity over a period of 4 My, the most recent eruption being the Bridge River Ash 2440 y B.P. The original explosive eruption produced extensive fracturing in the granitic basement, and a basal explosion breccia from the surface of a cold brittle crust. This breccia may be a geothermal reservoir. Other volcanic complexes in the CPC have a similar potential for geothermal energy.Earth Physics Contribution No. 704.     

Time variations of geomagnetic activity indices Kp and Ap: an update

Kp and Ap indices covering the period 1932 to 1995 are analysed in a fashion similar to that attempted by Bartels for the 1932–1961 epoch to examine the time variations in their characteristics. Modern analysis techniques on the extended data base are used for further insight. The relative frequencies of occurrence of Kp with different magnitudes and the seasonal and solar cycle dependences are seen to be remarkably consistent despite the addition of 35 years of observations. Many of the earlier features seen in the indices and special intervals are shown to be replicated in the present analysis. Time variations in the occurrence of prolonged periods of geomagnetic calm or of enhanced activity are presented and their relation to solar activity highlighted. It is shown that in the declining phase the occurrence frequencies of Kp = 4–5 (consecutively over 4 intervals) can be used as a precursor for the maximum sunspot number to be expected in the next cycle. The semiannual variation in geomagnetic activity is reexamined utilising not only the Ap index but also the occurrence frequencies of Kp index with different magnitudes. Lack of dependence of the amplitude of semiannual variation on sunspot number is emphasised. Singular spectrum analysis of the mean monthly Ap index shows some distinct periodic components. The temporal evolution of 44 month, 21 month and 16 month oscillations are examined and it is postulated that while QBO and the 16 month oscillations could be attributed to solar wind and IMF oscillations with analogous periodicity, the 44 month variation is associated with a similar periodicity in recurrent high speed stream caused by sector boundary passage. It is reconfirmed that there could have been only one epoch around 1940 when solar wind speed could have exhibited a 1.3-year periodicity comparable to that seen during the post-1986 period.     

Long-term variation of solar UVB (290–330 nm) observed at the earth's surface

During solar cycle 21 (1976–86), the primary solar irradiance at 300 nm was steady during 1980–82 and thereafter decreased until 1986 by only 2–3%. The stratospheric ozone in middle latitudes had a QBO of 3–4% in this interval but the long-term ozone trend was less than 3% per decade, which could result in a UVB increase of only 5–6% per decade. Thus, the combined effect of changes in primary solar irradiance and ozone changes could be an increase of 5–6% in UVB, observed at ground during 1977–81 and a steady level during 1981–86. During 1976–86, the average cloudiness changed by less than 5% indicating UVB changes of 5% or less on this count. The aerosol level was almost constant during 1976–82 and increased abruptly in 1982 due to the E1 Chichon eruption and decayed slowly unitl 1986. Thus, due to aerosols only, the UVB was expected to be constant during 1976–82, to decrease sharply in 1982 and to recoup slowly thereafter.Measurements of clear-sky solar UVB at ground made at Jungfraujoch (Swiss Alps, 47°N, 8°E) during 1981–89 and at Rockville, USA (39°N, 77°W) were not comparable between themselves and did not follow the above expected patterns. Neither did the all-day R-B meter UVB measurements at Philadelphia, USA (40°N, 75°W) and Minneapolis, USA (45°N, 93°W). We suspect that some of these measurements are erroneous. This needs further detailed scrutiny.     

Do CRISTA Experiment/Campaign Data Represent a Typical Situation or Not?

Data from four A3 radio wave circuits in central Europe are used to analyse the representativeness of the ionization and gravity wave activity pattern in the lower ionosphere (85 – 100 km) in the CRISTA experiment interval (3 – 12 November 1994) for the given conditions. It has been found that the CRISTA experiment interval was run under conditions, which are highly representative both of October – November 1994 and autumn, low-moderate solar activity, the descending phase of solar cycle conditions, i.e. CRISTA measurements may be considered to provide values identical with, or close to climatological values (at least for central Europe, h = 85 – 100 km).     

Long-term solar activity and terrestrial connections. Part II: at the beckon of the sun?

The research task described herein aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to the course of long-term solar conditions, long-term meaning decades or a few centuries. The model is based on the premise that since in a last analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and, possibly, some aspects of geospheric phenomena are, or have been, powered by energy issuing from the sun – either now or in the past – the long-term behavior of such phenomena is ultimately connected to long-term changes occurring in the sun itself. Accordingly, the proposed research firstly derives and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long-term solar activity, secondly introduces a transfer-function algorithm for modeling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection, and thirdly probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated effects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely nonlinear. Part I of the study presents the theory of the concept, while Part II demonstrates the concepts pertinence to a number of terrestrial phenomena.     

Longitudinal (UT) effect in the onset of auroral disturbances over two solar cycles as deduced from the AE-index

Statistical study on the universal time variations in the mean hourly auroral electrojet index (AE-index) has been undertaken for a 21 y period over two solar cycles (1957–1968 and 1978–1986). The analysis, applied to isolated auroral substorm onsets (inferred from rapid variations in the AE-index) and to the bulk of the AE data, indicates that the maximum in auroral activity is largely confined to 09–18 UT, with a distinct minimum at 03–06 UT. The diurnal effect was clearly present throughout all seasons in the first cycle but was mainly limited to northern winter in the second cycle. Severe storms (AE > 1000 nT) tended to occur between 9–18 UT irrespective of the seasons whereas all larger magnetic disturbances (AE > 500 nT) tended to occur in this time interval mostly in winter. On the whole the diurnal trend was strong in winter, intermediate at equinox and weak in summer. The implication of this study is that Eastern Siberia, Japan and Australia are mostly at night, during the period of maximum auroral activity whereas Europe and Eastern America are then mostly at daytime. The minimum of auroral activity coincides with near-midnight conditions in Eastern America. It appears that the diurnal UT distribution in the AE-index reflects a diurnal change between interplanetary magnetic field orientation and the Earths magnetic dipole inclination.     

Statistics of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle (1844–1993)

A previous application of extreme-value statistics to the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle for nine solar cycles is extended to fourteen solar cycles (1844–1993). The intensity of a geomagnetic storm is measured by the magnitude of the daily aa index, rather than the half-daily aa index used previously. Values of the conventional aa index (1868– 1993), supplemented by the Helsinki Ak index (1844–1880), provide an almost continuous, and largely homogeneous, daily measure of geomagnetic activity over an interval of 150 years. As in the earlier investigation, analytic expressions giving the probabilities of the three greatest storms (extreme values) per solar cycle, as continuous functions of storm magnitude (ad), are obtained by least-squares fitting of the observations to the appropriate theoretical extreme-value probability functions. These expressions are used to obtain the statistical characteristics of the extreme values; namely, the mode, median, mean, standard deviation and relative dispersion. Since the Ak index may not provide an entirely homogeneous extension of the aa index, the statistical analysis is performed separately for twelve solar cycles (1868–1993), as well as nine solar cycles (1868–1967). The results are utilized to determine the expected ranges of the extreme values as a function of the number of solar cycles. For fourteen solar cycles, the expected ranges of the daily aa index for the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle decrease monotonically in magnitude, contrary to the situation for the half-daily aa index over nine solar cycles. The observed range of the first extreme daily aa index for fourteen solar cycles is 159–352 nT and for twelve solar cycles is 215–352 nT. In a group of 100 solar cycles the expected ranges are expanded to 137–539 and 177–511 nT, which represent increases of 108% and 144% in the respective ranges. Thus there is at least a 99% probability that the daily aa index willAlso Visiting Reader in Physics, University of Sussex, Palmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH, UK     

Variable Solar Forcing and Climate Changes

Numerous studies of interrelations between solar activity and global climate changes report contradictory conclusions. The topic as such is too complex, and manifestations of the studied relationship appear to differ in time and space, and sometimes are even of the opposite sense, In this study the data on air temperature and precipitation totals from Hurbanovo, one of the oldest meteorological observatories in Europe, are used to study their evolution within the interval 1871–1995, covering solar cycles 12–22, The variability of the meteorological elements mentioned is compared with that of the sunspot number and aa index of geomagnetic activity. The sensitivity of climate changes to variable solar forcing is presented as a comparison of extreme (maximum/minimum) activity conditions. Harmonic components with periods close to the length of the solar secular and solar magnetic cycles were found in climate evolution profiles.     

Causes of microgravity change at Poás volcano,Costa Rica: an active but non-erupting system

Microgravity changes with time, not always consistent with the Bouguer-corrected free air gradient, have been recorded and associated with cyles of eruptive activity at Krafla, Kilauea, Pacaya and Etna volcanoes. In contrast, over the non-erupting yet active fumarolic vents at Poás (Costa Rica), real-time gravity observations over three periods during the years 1983–1985 have identified ca. 140µGal amplitude, cyclic gravity variations. Their decrease in amplitude with distance from the active crater, coupled with a static sub-surface structural model, have allowed the effects of a variety of possible causative dynamic phenomena to be evaluated. It is concluded that cyclic changes in the average density (by ca. 0.03 Mg m^–3) in the magma pipe at depths below 500 m, rather than variation in magma chamber or water table geometry, are responsible for the observed gravity variations. Specifically, anaverage of 1 % fluctuation in the volume of gas in crystal-free magma, a process driven by thermal convection cycles, probably accounts for the density/gravity change.