Earthquake probabilities and magnitude distribution (M ≥ 6.7) along the Haiyuan fault, northwestern China

Introduction Haiyuan fault is a major seismogenic fault in north-central China. One of the most devastat-ing great earthquake in the 20th century occurred near Haiyuan in northwestern China on Decem-ber 16, 1920. More than 220 000 people were killed and thousands of towns and villages weredestroyed during the devastating earthquake. A 230 km long left-lateral surface rupture zone wasformed along the Haiyuan fault during the earthquake with maximum left-lateral displacement of10 m. Pale…     

Deep structural characteristics and seismogenesis of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis>≥8.0 earthquakes in North China

Based on the results from seismogeological study, aeromagnetic inversion and deep seismic sounding (DSS), it is found that the M≥8.0 earthquakes in North China have three common deep structural characteristics, i.e., they all took place above the ultra-crustal deep faults or on the edges of the tectonic blocks with higher intensity, and there are low-velocity, low-density and high-conductive layers deep in the epicentral regions. The origins of the earthquakes are also discussed and the two possibilities of seismogenesis are proposed, i.e., tectonic movement and intracrustal explosion.     

An ocean circulation model in <Emphasis Type="Italic">σ</Emphasis>S-<Emphasis Type="Italic">z</Emphasis>-<Emphasis Type="Italic">σ</Emphasis>B hybrid coordinate and its validation

A 3D, two-time-level, σS-z-σB hybrid-coordinate Marine Science and Numerical Modeling numerical ocean circulation model (HyMOM) is developed in this paper. In HyMOM, the σ coordinate is employed in the surface and bottom regions, and the z coordinate is used in the intermediate layers. This method can overcome problems with vanishing surface cells and minimize the unwanted deviation in representing bottom topography. The connection between the σ and z layers vertically includes an expanded “ghost” method and the linear interpolation. The governing equations in the σS-z-σB hybrid coordinate based on the complete Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are derived in detail. The two-level time staggered and Eulerian forward and backward schemes, which are of second-order of accuracy, are adopted for the temporal difference in internal and external mode, respectively. The computation of the baroclinic gradient force is tested in an analytic test problem; the errors for two methods in HyMOM, which are relatively large only in the bottom layers, are obviously smaller than those in the pure σ and z models in almost all of the vertical layers. A quasi-global climatologic numerical experiment is constructed to test the simulation performance of HyMOM. With the monthly mean Levitus climatology data as reference, the HyMOM can improve the simulating accuracy compared with its pure z or σ coordinate implementation.     

Improved random noise attenuation using <Emphasis Type="Italic">f</Emphasis>−<Emphasis Type="Italic">x</Emphasis> empirical mode decomposition and local similarity

Conventional f?x empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is an effective random noise attenuation method for use with seismic profiles mainly containing horizontal events. However, when a seismic event is not horizontal, the use of f?x EMD is harmful to most useful signals. Based on the framework of f?x EMD, this study proposes an improved denoising approach that retrieves lost useful signals by detecting effective signal points in a noise section using local similarity and then designing a weighting operator for retrieving signals. Compared with conventional f?x EMD, f?x predictive filtering, and f?x empirical mode decomposition predictive filtering, the new approach can preserve more useful signals and obtain a relatively cleaner denoised image. Synthetic and field data examples are shown as test performances of the proposed approach, thereby verifying the effectiveness of this method.     

The Tolud Burst of Seismicity and the Earthquake of November 30, 2012 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>C</Subscript> = 5.4, <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript> = 4.8) that Accompanied the Start of the 2012‒2013 Tolbachik Eruption

This paper reports a study of the Tolud earthquake sequence; the sequence was a burst of shallow seismicity between November 28 and December 7, 2012; it accompanied the initial phase in the Tolbachik Fissure Eruption of 2012?2013. The largest earthquake (the Tolud earthquake of November 30, 2012, to be referred to as the Tolud Earthquake in what follows, with K_S = 11.3, M_L = 4.9, M_C = 5.4, and M_W = 4.8) is one of the five larger seismic events that have been recorded at depths shallower than 10 km beneath the entire Klyuchevskoi Volcanic Cluster in 1961?2015. It was found that the Tolud earthquake sequence was the foreshock–aftershock process of the Tolud Earthquake. This is one of the larger seismicity episodes ever to have occurred in the volcanic areas of Kamchatka. Data of the Kamchatka seismic stations were used to compute some parameters for the Tolud Earthquake and its largest (M_L = 4.3) aftershock; the parameters include the source parameters and mechanisms, and the moment magnitudes, since no information on these is available at the world seismological data centers. The focal mechanisms for the Tolud Earthquake and for its aftershock are consistent with seismic ruptures at a tension fault in the rift zone. Instrumental data were used to estimate the intensity of shaking due to the Tolud Earthquake. We discuss the sequence of events that was a signature of the time-dependent seismic and volcanic activity that took place in the Tolbachik zone in late November 2012 and terminated in the Tolud burst of seismicity. Based on the current ideas of the tectonics and magma sources for the Tolbachik volcanic zone, we discuss possible causes of these earthquakes.     

Atypical soil behavior during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (<Emphasis Type="Italic">М</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> = 9)

To understand physical mechanisms of generation of abnormally high peak ground acceleration (PGA; >1g) during the Tohoku earthquake, models of nonlinear soil behavior in the strong motion were constructed for 27 KiK-net stations located in the near-fault zones to the south of FKSH17. The method of data processing used was developed by Pavlenko and Irikura, Pure Appl Geophys 160:2365–2379, 2003 and previously applied for studying soil behavior at vertical array sites during the 1995 Kobe (М _w ?=?6.8) and 2000 Tottori (М _w ?=?6.7) earthquakes. During the Tohoku earthquake, we did not observe a widespread nonlinearity of soft soils and reduction at the beginning of strong motion and recovery at the end of strong motion of shear moduli in soil layers, as usually observed during strong earthquakes. Manifestations of soil nonlinearity and reduction of shear moduli during strong motion were observed at sites located close to the source, in coastal areas. At remote sites, where abnormally high PGAs were recorded, shear moduli in soil layers increased and reached their maxima at the moments of the highest intensity of the strong motion, indicating soil hardening. Then, shear moduli reduced with decreasing the intensity of the strong motion. At soft-soil sites, the reduction of shear moduli was accompanied by a step-like decrease of the predominant frequencies of motion. Evidently, the observed soil hardening at the moments of the highest intensity of the strong motion contributed to the occurrence of abnormally high PGA, recorded during the Tohoku earthquake.     

Flow over a rounded backward-facing step,using a <Emphasis Type="Italic">z</Emphasis>-coordinate model and a <Emphasis Type="Italic">σ</Emphasis>-coordinate model

Homogeneous, nonrotating flow over a backward-facing rounded step is simulated using the 2D vertical version of two general circulation models, a z-coordinate model—the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm)—and a σ-coordinate model—the Bergen Ocean Model (BOM). The backward-facing step is a well-known testcase since it is geometrically simple but still embodies important flow characteristics such as separation point, reattachment length, and recirculation of the flow. The study compares the core of the two models and uses constant eddy viscosities and diffusivities. The Reynolds numbers ranges from 2·10² to 2·10⁶. The results correspond with previously published results having a relatively stationary separation point and a fluctuating reattachment length due to downslope propagating eddies released from the reattachment zone for Reynolds numbers higher than or equal to 2 · 10⁴. For Reynolds number within the laminar regime, the flow is stationary. The discrepancies between the models increase by enhancing Reynolds numbers. The σ-coordinate model experiences a reduction in eddy sizes with increasing resolution and Reynolds numbers in correspondence with published experiments, while the size of the eddies are independent of the Reynolds number using the MITgcm. Due to mixing generated by the staircase topography, the z-coordinate model gives a better convergence of the separation point and reattachment length compared with the BOM; however, this conclusion might change with the inclusion of a relevant turbulence scheme.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> = 5.8 14 August 2016 middle Sakhalin earthquake on a boundary between Okhotsk and Eurasian (Amurian) plates

An earthquake with the moment magnitude M _w ?=?5.8 occurred in the middle part of the Sakhalin Island, Russian Federation, on 14 August 2016, at 11:17 a.m. UTC. The earthquake source was located west of the Central Sakhalin Fault Zone, which is considered to mark the boundary between the Okhotsk and Eurasian (Amurian) plates. Moment tensor solution of the mainshock as well as the configuration of aftershock cloud suggests that the earthquake was caused by slip on a SW-dipping reverse fault. For the first time for Sakhalin, we have got the felt reports unified in accordance with DYFI. We also analyzed observed PGA values and, based on them, produced shaking maps.     

Altitudinal effect of soil <Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis>-alkane <Emphasis Type="Italic">δ</Emphasis>D values on the eastern Tibetan Plateau and their increasing isotopic fractionation with altitude

Stable isotope paleoaltimetry has provided unprecedented insights into the topographic histories of many of the world’s highest mountain ranges. However, on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), stable isotopes from paleosols generally yield much higher paleoaltitudes than those based on fossils. It is therefore essential when attempting to interpret accurately this region’s paleoaltitudes that the empirical calibrations of local stable isotopes and the relations between them are established. Additionally, it is vital that careful estimations be made when estimate how different isotopes sourced from different areas may have been influenced by different controls. We present here 29 hydrogen isotopic values for leaf wax-derived n-alkanes (i.e., _δD_wax values, and abundance-weighted average δD values of C₂₉ and C₃₁) in surface soils, as well as the δD values of soil water (δD_sw) samples (totaling 22) from Mount Longmen (LM), on the eastern TP (altitude ~0.8–4.0 km above sea level (asl), a region climatically affected by the East Asian Monsoon (EAM). We compared our results with published data from Mount Gongga (GG). In addition, 47 river water samples, 55 spring water samples, and the daily and monthly summer precipitation records (from May to October, 2015) from two precipitation observation stations were collected along the GG transect for δD analysis. LM soil _δD_wax values showed regional differences and responded strongly to altitude, varying from?160‰ to?219‰, with an altitudinal lapse rate (ALR) of?18‰ km^?1 (R ²=0.83; p<0.0001; n=29). These _δD_wax values appeared more enriched than those from the GG transect by ~40‰. We found that both the climate and moisture sources led to the differences observed in soil _δD_wax values between the LM and GG transects. We found that, as a general rule, ε _wax/rw, ε _wax/p and ε _wax/sw values (i.e., the isotopic fractionation of _δD_wax corresponding to δD_rw, δD_p and δD_sw) increased with increasing altitude along both the LM and GG transects (up to 34‰and 50‰, respectively). Basing its research on a comparative study of _δD_wax, δD_p, δD_rw(δD_springw) and δD_sw, this paper discusses the effects of moisture recycling, glacier-fed meltwater, relative humidity (RH), evapotranspiration (ET), vegetation cover, latitude, topography and/or other factors on ε _wax/p values. Clearly, if ε _wax-p values at higher altitudes are calculated using smaller ε _wax-p values from lower altitudes, the calculated paleowaterδD_p values are going to be more depleted than the actual δD values, and any paleoaltitude would therefore be overestimated.     

Shape of Empirical and Synthetic Isoseismals: Comparison for Italian <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> ≤ 6 Earthquakes

We present results from a comparative analysis of empirical and synthetic shapes for isoseismals of low intensity (I = IV–VI on the MCS scale) for six Italian earthquakes of ML = 4.5–6. Our modeling of isoseismals is based on a plane-stratified earth model and on the double–couple point source approximation to calculate seismograms in the frequency range f 1 Hz. With a minimum of parameter variation we demonstrate that the low intensity isoseismals provide information on source geometry. We strive to avoid subjectivity in isoseismal constructions by using the new Diffuse Boundary method, which visualizes isoseismals with their uncertainty. Similar results in this direction are known for large earthquakes (M_L 6 or greater) with extended sources and for the higher isoseismals (I VI on the MM scale). The latter studies disregard the earth structure, use a greater number of parameters, and therefore have greater possibilities for fitting the data than our approach.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Homo erectus pekinensis’s</Emphasis> age and environment— with discussion on the relationship among<Emphasis Type="Italic">Homo erectos</Emphasis> from Beijing,Nanjing and Chenjiawo

This paper inspects the relationship betweenHomo erectus from Beijing, Nanjing and Chenjiawo on the viewpoint of environmental variations. Pieces of evidence show that Nanjing and ChenjiawoHomo erectus lived in glacial age at the Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 16, whileHomo erectus pekinensis in major interglacial age at MISs 15-13. It is also recovered that the cave deposits in Tangshan, Nanjing, and Zhoukoudian, Beijing, as well as the deposits at theHomo erectus site in Chenjiawo, have undergone some similar development process. All of them originated from early-middle Middle Pleistocene, and have gone through the test of the major glacial age at MIS 16 and the major interglacial period at the paleosol stage S₅. At the same time, they were also closely connected with some environment events, such as the uplift of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, the formation of glaciations and the loess accumulations.     

Simulating CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> transport into the ocean from a CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> lake at the seafloor using a <Emphasis Type="Italic">z</Emphasis>- and a <Emphasis Type="Italic">σ</Emphasis>-coordinate model

The ocean takes up approximately 2 GT carbon per year due to the enhanced CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere. Several options have been suggested in order to reduce the emissions of CO₂ into the atmosphere, and among these are CO₂ storage in the deep ocean. Topographic effects of dissolution and transport from a CO₂ lake located at 3,000-m depth have been studied using the z-coordinate model Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) and the σ-coordinate model Bergen ocean model (BOM). Both models have been coupled with the general ocean turbulence model (GOTM) in order to account for vertical subgrid processes. The chosen vertical turbulence mixing scheme includes the damping effect from stable stratification on the turbulence intensity. Three different topographic scenarios are presented: a flat bottom and the CO₂ lake placed within a trench with depths of 10 and 20 m. The flat case scenario gives good correlation with previous numerical studies of dissolution from a CO₂ lake. When topography is introduced, it is shown that the z-coordinate model and the σ-coordinate model give different circulation patterns in the trench. This leads to different dissolution rates, 0.1 μmol cm^− 2 s^− 1 for the scenario of a 20-m-deep trench using BOM and 0.005–0.02 μmol cm^− 2 s^− 1 for the same scenario using the MITgcm. The study is also relevant for leakages of CO₂ stored in geological formations and to the ocean.     

The seasonal behavior of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">B</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">z</Emphasis></Subscript> daily variations according to the monitoring at the Bishkek geodynamic site (1993–1995)

The algorithm for monitoring the magnetotelluric field has been briefly described, and the experimental data, obtained at the Bishkek geodynamic site, have been analyzed. The regularities in the seasonal behavior of the variations in the field vertical magnetic component have been revealed.     

Evidence for a Tang-Song Dynasty great earthquake along the Longmen Shan Thrust Belt prior to the 2008 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake,China

The magnitude (M _w) 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake occurred on 12 May 2008 in the Longmen Shan region of China, the transition zone between the Tibetan Plateau and the Sichuan Basin, resulting in widespread damage throughout central and western China. The steep, high-relief eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau has undergone rapid Cenozoic uplift and denudation accompanied by folding and thrusting, yet no large thrust earthquakes are known prior to the 2008 M _w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. Field and excavation investigations reveal that a great historical earthquake occurred in the Sichuan region that ruptured a >200-km-long thrust fault within the Longmen Shan Thrust Belt, China, which also triggered the 2008 M _w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. The average co-seismic slip amount produced by this historical earthquake is estimated to be 2–3 m, comparable with that caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Paleoseismic and archaeological evidence and radiocarbon dating results show that the penultimate great earthquake occurred in the Sichuan region during the late Tang-Song Dynasty, between AD 800 and 1000, suggesting a recurrence interval of ~1,000–1,200 years for Wenchuan-magnitude (M = ~8) earthquakes in the late Holocene within the Longmen Shan Thrust Belt. This finding is in contrast with previous estimates of 2,000–10,000 years for the recurrence interval of large earthquakes within the Longmen Shan Thrust Belt, as obtained from long-term slip rates based on the Global Positioning System and geological data, thereby necessitating substantial modifications to existing seismic-hazard models for the densely populated region at the eastern marginal zone of the Tibetan Plateau.     

Strong motion characteristics of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 6.6 Lushan earthquake,Sichuan, China — an insight into the spatial difference of a typical thrust fault earthquake

Near-field strong ground motions are useful for engineering seismology studies and seismic design, but dense observation networks of damaging earthquakes are still rare. In this study, based on the strong-motion data from the M w 6.6 Lushan earthquake, the ground motion parameters in different spatial regions are systematically analyzed, and the contributions from different effects, like the hanging-wall effect, directivity effect, and attenuation effect are separated to the extent possible. Different engineering parameters from the observed ground motions are compared with the local design response spectra and a new attenuation relation of Western China. General results indicate that the high frequency ground motion, like the peak ground acceleration, on two sides of the fault plane is sensitive to the hanging-wall effect, whereas the low frequency ground motion, like the long period spectral acceleration, in the rupture propagation direction is affected by the directivity effect. Moreover, although the M w 6.6 Lushan earthquake is not a large magnitude event, the spatial difference of ground motion is still obvious; thus, for a thrust faulting earthquake, in addition to the hanging effect, the directivity effect should also be considered.     

Plasma pressure distribution in the equatorial plane of the Earth’s magnetosphere at geocentric distances of 6–10<Emphasis Type="Italic">R</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">E</Emphasis></Subscript> according to the international THEMIS mission data

The structure of the averaged plasma pressure distribution in the plasma ring around the Earth at geocentric distances of ∼6–10R _E has been determined. The distribution function moments measured on the international THEMIS mission satellites have been used. The plasma pressure distribution in the equatorial plane at 15R _E > X_SM > −15R _E and 15R _E > Y_SM > −15R _E has been statistically studied. The radial dependence of the plasma pressure at the day-night and morning-evening meridians has been analyzed. It has been indicated that the plasma ring around the Earth has a structure, which is close to being azimuthally symmetric. The achieved results have been compared with the pressure distributions obtained previously. It has been indicated that in the overlapping regions, the achieved results agree with the previously obtained data within the pressure determination errors.     

The ratio between corner frequencies of source spectra of <Emphasis Type="Italic">P</Emphasis>- and <Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis>-waves—a new discriminant between earthquakes and quarry blasts

This study analyzes and compares the P- and S-wave displacement spectra from local earthquakes and explosions of similar magnitudes. We propose a new approach to discrimination between low-magnitude shallow earthquakes and explosions by using ratios of P- to S-wave corner frequencies as a criterion. We have explored 2430 digital records of the Israeli Seismic Network (ISN) from 456 local events (226 earthquakes, 230 quarry blasts, and a few underwater explosions) of magnitudes Md?=?1.4–3.4, which occurred at distances up to 250 km during 2001–2013 years. P-wave and S-wave displacement spectra were computed for all events following Brune’s source model of earthquakes (1970, 1971) and applying the distance correction coefficients (Shapira and Hofstetter, Teconophysics 217:217–226, 1993; Ataeva G, Shapira A, Hofstetter A, J Seismol 19:389-401, 2015), The corner frequencies and moment magnitudes were determined using multiple stations for each event, and then the comparative analysis was performed.The analysis showed that both P-wave and especially S-wave displacement spectra of quarry blasts demonstrate the corner frequencies lower than those obtained from earthquakes of similar magnitudes. A clear separation between earthquake and explosion populations was obtained for ratios of P- to S-wave corner frequency f ₀(P)/f ₀(S). The ratios were computed for each event with corner frequencies f ₀ of P- and S-wave, which were obtained from the measured f ₀ ^I at individual stations, then corrected for distance and finally averaged. We obtained empirically the average estimation of f ₀(P)/f ₀(S)?=?1.23 for all used earthquakes, and 1.86 for all explosions. We found that the difference in the ratios can be an effective discrimination parameter which does not depend on estimated moment magnitude M _w .The new multi-station Corner Frequency Discriminant (CFD) for earthquakes and explosions in Israel was developed based on ratios P- to S-wave corner frequencies f ₀(P)/f ₀(S), with the empirical threshold value of the ratio for Israel as 1.48.     

Temporal and spatial variations of <Emphasis Type="Italic">δ</Emphasis><Superscript>15</Superscript>N and <Emphasis Type="Italic">δ</Emphasis><Superscript>18</Superscript>O for atmospheric N<Subscript>2</Subscript>O above the oceanic surface from Shanghai to Antarctica

During the 22nd Chinese Antarctic Research Expedition (CHINARE-22), the atmospheric gas samples above the oceanic surface and near the surface were collected on the track for the scientific ship “Xuelong” and on Millor Peninsula of eastern Antarctica, respectively, using the Tedlar gas bags. Every day the sampling times were 10:00 and 22:00 (local time), respectively. In the laboratory, high-precision measurement of the isotopic compositions for N₂O in these gas samples was conducted using Thermo Finnigan MAT-253 Isotopic Mass Spectrometer with a fully automated interface for the pre-GC concentration (PreCon) of trace gases. The temporal and spatial variations of δ ¹⁵N and δ ¹⁸O in atmospheric N₂O were analyzed. The mean δ ¹⁵N and δ ¹⁸O-N₂O values above the oceanic surface were (7.21±0.50)‰ and (44.52±0.52)‰, respectively. From 30°N to Antarctica, the δ ¹⁵N (6.05‰–7.88‰) linearly increased with the rate of about 0.01‰ with the latitude while the δ ¹⁸O (43.05‰–48.78‰) showed a large fluctuation. The δ ¹⁵N negatively correlated with air temperature and N₂O concentration, and slightly positively correlated with δ ¹⁸O. The summertime variations of δ ¹⁵N and δ ¹⁸O-N₂O appeared the same trend on Millor Peninsula of eastern Antarctica. They significantly positively correlated with each other and negatively with N₂O concentration. The δ ¹⁵N and δ ¹⁸O-N₂O at different sites averaged (7.42±0.35)‰ and (44.69±0.49)‰, respectively, slightly higher than those above the oceanic surface, significantly higher than those of atmospheric N₂O in the low-latitude regions of Northern Hemisphere. The predominant factors affecting the spatial variations of δ ¹⁵N and δ ¹⁸O values were also discussed. The isotopic data given in this study can help to investigate the global and regional N₂O budgets. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40676005 and 40406001)     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Prochlorococcus</Emphasis> viruses—From biodiversity to biogeochemical cycles

As the dominant primary producer in oligotrophic oceans, the unicellular picocyanobacterium Prochlorococcus is the smallest and most abundant photosynthetic phytoplankton in the world and plays an important role in marine carbon cycling. Cyanophages that infect Prochlorococcus influence the growth, carbon fixation, diversity, evolution, and environmental adaptation of their hosts. Here, we review studies on the isolation, genomics, and phylogenetic diversity of Prochlorococcus viruses and their interactions with Prochlorococcus. We also review the potential effects of Prochlorococcus viruses on biogeochemical cycling in the ocean.