Refinement of thrust faulting models for the Central New Madrid seismic zone

We present the results of the joint relocation of events recorded during 1989–1992 by the PANDA network in the central New Madrid seismic zone. The near-surface material in the study area is a gently-dipping layer of poorly consolidated sediments with low P-wave velocity and high V_p/V_s (estimated values: 1.8 km s⁻¹ and 3). The sediments are underlain by high-velocity Paleozoic rocks. Under the network the difference in sediment thickness is only 0.6 km, but because of the low velocities the location of the events using layered models is affected by errors. Application of the joint hypocentral determination (JHD) technique to a subset of 580 events shows that the single-event locations may be in error by as much as 1 km in depth, depending on where the events are located. Analysis of synthetic data generated for a realistic 3-D velocity model supports the JHD results. The analysis of synthetic data also suggests that a V_p/V_s≤ 2.3 is more appropriate for the post-Paleozoic Mississippi embayment sediments. Based on the JHD locations we present a new interpretation of the seismicity, with two en-echelon SW-dipping thrust faults connected by a west-dipping thrust fault. These faults appear associated with the Reelfoot scarp and its northern extension, the Kentucky bend scarp.     

Late Pleistocene and Holocene paleoseismology of an intraplate seismic zone in a large alluvial valley, the New Madrid seismic zone, Central USA

The New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) is an intraplate right-lateral strike-slip and thrust fault system contained mostly within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. The most recent earthquake sequence in the zone occurred in 1811–1812 and had estimated moment magnitudes of 7–8 (e.g., [Johnston, A.C., 1996. Seismic moment assessment of stable continental earthquakes, Part 3: 1811–1812 New Madrid, 1886 Charleston, and 1755 Lisbon. Geophysical Journal International 126, 314–344; Johnston, A.C., Schweig III, E.S, 1996. The enigma of the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811–1812. Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Sciences 24, 339–384; Hough, S.E., Armbruster, J.G., Seeber, L., Hough, J.F., 2000. On the modified Mercalli intensities and magnitudes of the New Madrid earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research 105 (B10), 23,839–23,864; Tuttle, M.P., 2001. The use of liquefaction features in paleoseismology: Lessons learned in the New Madrid seismic zone, central United States. Journal of Seismology 5, 361–380]). Four earlier prehistoric earthquakes or earthquake sequences have been dated A.D. 1450 ± 150, 900 ± 100, 300 ± 200, and 2350 B.C. ± 200 years using paleoliquefaction features, particularly those associated with native American artifacts, and in some cases surface deformation ([Craven, J. A. 1995. Paleoseismology study in the New Madrid seismic zone using geological and archeological features to constrain ages of liquefaction deposits. M.S thesis, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, U.S.A.; Tuttle, M.P., Lafferty III, R.H., Guccione, M.J., Schweig III, E.S., Lopinot, N., Cande, R., Dyer-Williams, K., Haynes, M., 1996. Use of archaeology to date liquefaction features and seismic events in the New Madrid seismic zone, central United States. Geoarchaeology 11, 451–480; Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43(2002), 313–349; Tuttle, M.P., Schweig, E.S., Sims, J.D., Lafferty, R.H., Wolf, L.W., Haynes, M.L., 2002. The earthquake potential of the New Madrid seismic zone, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v 92, n. 6, p. 2080–2089; Tuttle, M.P., Schweig III, E.S., Campbell, J., Thomas, P.M., Sims, J.D., Lafferty III, R.H., 2005. Evidence for New Madrid earthquakes in A.D. 300 and 2350 B.C. Seismological Research Letters 76, 489–501]). The two most recent prehistoric and the 2350 B.C. events were probably also earthquake sequences with approximately the same magnitude as the historic sequence.Surface deformation (faulting and folding) in an alluvial setting provides many examples of stream response to gradient changes that can also be used to date past earthquake events. Stream responses include changes in channel morphology, deviations in the channel path from the regional gradient, changes in the direction of flow, anomalous longitudinal profiles, and aggradation or incision of the channel ([Merritts, D., Hesterberg, T, 1994. Stream networks and long-term surface uplift in the New Madrid seismic zone. Science 265, 1081–1084.; Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43 (2002), 313–349]). Uplift or depression of the floodplain affects the frequency of flooding and thus the thickness and style of vertical accretion or drowning of a meander scar to form a lake. Vegetation may experience trauma, mortality, and in some cases growth enhancement due to ground failure during the earthquake and hydrologic changes after the earthquake ([VanArdale, R.B., Stahle, D.W., Cleaveland, M.K., Guccione, M.J., 1998. Earthquake signals in tree-ring data from the New Madrid seismic zone and implications for paleoseismicity. Geology 26, 515–518]). Identification and dating these physical and biologic responses allows source areas to be identified and seismic events to be dated.Seven fault segments are recognized by microseismicity and geomorphology. Surface faulting has been recognized at three of these segments, Reelfoot fault, New Madrid North fault, and Bootheel fault. The Reelfoot fault is a compressive stepover along the strike-slip fault and has up to 11 m of surface relief ([Carlson, S.D., 2000. Formation and geomorphic history of Reelfoot Lake: insight into the New Madrid seismic zone. M.S. Thesis, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas, U.S.A]) deforming abandoned and active Mississippi River channels ([Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43 (2002), 313–349]). The New Madrid North fault apparently has only strike-slip motion and is recognized by modern microseismicity, geomorphic anomalies, and sand cataclasis ([Baldwin, J.N., Barron A.D., Kelson, K.I., Harris, J.B., Cashman, S., 2002. Preliminary paleoseismic and geophysical investigation of the North Farrenburg lineament: primary tectonic deformation associated with the New Madrid North Fault?. Seismological Research Letters 73, 393–413]). The Bootheel fault, which is not identified by the modern microseismicity, is associated with extensive liquefaction and offset channels ([Guccione, M.J., Marple, R., Autin, W.J., 2005, Evidence for Holocene displacements on the Bootheel fault (lineament) in southeastern Missouri: Seismotectonic implications for the New Madrid region. Geological Society of America Bulletin 117, 319–333]). The fault has dominantly strike-slip motion but also has a vertical component of slip. Other recognized surface deformation includes relatively low-relief folding at Big Lake/Manila high ([Guccione, M.J., VanArdale, R.B., Hehr, L.H., 2000. Origin and age of the Manila high and associated Big Lake “Sunklands”, New Madrid seismic zone, northeastern Arkansas. Geological Society of America Bulletin 112, 579–590]) and Lake St. Francis/Marked Tree high ([Guccione, M.J., VanArsdale, R.B., 1995. Origin and age of the St. Francis Sunklands using drainage patterns and sedimentology. Final report submitted to the U. S. Geological Survey, Award Number 1434-93-G-2354, Washington D.C.]), both along the subsurface Blytheville arch. Deformation at each of the fault segments does not occur during each earthquake event, indicating that earthquake sources have varied throughout the Holocene.     

The Olmsted fault zone, southernmost Illinois: A key to understanding seismic hazard in the northern new Madrid seismic zone

Geological deformation in the northern New Madrid seismic zone, near Olmsted, Illinois (USA), is analyzed using integrated compressional-wave (P) and horizontally polarized-wave (SH) seismic reflection and regional and dedicated borehole information. Seismic hazards are of special concern because of strategic facilities (e.g., lock and dam sites and chemical plants on the Ohio River near its confluence with the Mississippi River) and because of alluvial soils subject to high amplification of earthquake shock. We use an integrated approach starting with lower resolution, but deeper penetration, P-wave reflection profiles to identify displacement of Paleozoic bedrock. Higher resolution, but shallower penetration, SH-wave images show deformation that has propagated upward from bedrock faults into Pleistocene loess. We have mapped an intricate zone more than 8 km wide of high-angle faults in Mississippi embayment sediments localized over Paleozoic bedrock faults that trend north to northeast, parallel to the Ohio River. These faults align with the pattern of epicenters in the New Madrid seismic zone. Normal and reverse offsets along with positive flower structures imply a component of strike-slip; the current stress regime favors right-lateral slip on northeast-trending faults. The largest fault, the Olmsted fault, underwent principal displacement near the end of the Cretaceous Period 65 to 70 million years ago. Strata of this age (dated via fossil pollen) thicken greatly on the downthrown side of the Olmsted fault into a locally subsiding basin. Small offsets of Tertiary and Quaternary strata are evident on high-resolution SH-wave seismic profiles. Our results imply recent reactivation and possible future seismic activity in a critical area of the New Madrid seismic zone. This integrated approach provides a strategy for evaluating shallow seismic hazard-related targets for engineering concerns.     

Intervention and assessment of earthquake knowledge at rural schools near the New Madrid seismic zone,USA

Natural Hazards - Possible recurrence of large earthquakes such as the 1811–1812 New Madrid sequence presents a significant hazard in the Central United States. The efficacy of earthquake...     

Displacement history and slip rate on the Reelfoot fault of the New Madrid seismic zone

A displacement history and slip rates were determined for the Reelfoot fault in the New Madrid seismic zone from a seismic reflection profile and trench data. Based on calculations from the seismic reflection line the average slip rate over the last 80 million years is 0.0009 mm year⁻¹. Slip rate during the Late Cretaceous was 0.0007 mm year⁻¹, 0.002 mm year⁻¹ during the Paleocene Midway Group, 0.001 mm year⁻¹ during Paleocene–Eocene Wilcox Formation time, 0.0003 mm year⁻¹ during the post-Wilcox/pre-Holocene period, and a Holocene slip rate of 1.8 mm year⁻¹. Based on trench data, slip rate on the Reelfoot fault has been 4.4 mm year⁻¹ over the last 2400 years and a maximum of 6.2 mm year⁻¹ during the two most recent earthquake cycles between AD 900 and AD 1812. The Holocene slip rate is at least four orders of magnitude higher than the average Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic slip rates for the Reelfoot fault. It would appear that there has been a Quaternary change in the stress field in the central United States or the Reelfoot fault is experiencing a short-lived burst of seismic activity.     

Integration of P- and SH-wave high-resolution seismic reflection and micro-gravity techniques to improve interpretation of shallow subsurface structure: New Madrid seismic zone

Shallow high-resolution seismic reflection surveys have traditionally been restricted to either compressional (P) or horizontally polarized shear (SH) waves in order to produce 2-D images of subsurface structure. The northernmost Mississippi embayment and coincident New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) provide an ideal laboratory to study the experimental use of integrating P- and SH-wave seismic profiles, integrated, where practicable, with micro-gravity data. In this area, the relation between “deeper” deformation of Paleozoic bedrock associated with the formation of the Reelfoot rift and NMSZ seismicity and “shallower” deformation of overlying sediments has remained elusive, but could be revealed using integrated P- and SH-wave reflection. Surface expressions of deformation are almost non-existent in this region, which makes seismic reflection surveying the only means of detecting structures that are possibly pertinent to seismic hazard assessment. Since P- and SH-waves respond differently to the rock and fluid properties and travel at dissimilar speeds, the resulting seismic profiles provide complementary views of the subsurface based on different levels of resolution and imaging capability. P-wave profiles acquired in southwestern Illinois and western Kentucky (USA) detect faulting of deep, Paleozoic bedrock and Cretaceous reflectors while coincident SH-wave surveys show that this deformation propagates higher into overlying Tertiary and Quaternary strata. Forward modeling of micro-gravity data acquired along one of the seismic profiles further supports an interpretation of faulting of bedrock and Cretaceous strata. The integration of the two seismic and the micro-gravity methods therefore increases the scope for investigating the relation between the older and younger deformation in an area of critical seismic hazard.     

Statistical analysis of factors affecting landslide distribution in the new Madrid seismic zone, Tennessee and Kentucky

More than 220 large landslides along the bluffs bordering the Mississippi alluvial plain between Cairo, Ill., and Memphis, Tenn., are analyzed by discriminant analysis and multiple linear regression to determine the relative effects of slope height and steepness, stratigraphic variation, slope aspect, and proximity to the hypocenters of the 1811-12 New Madrid, Mo., earthquakes on the distribution of these landslides. Three types of landslides are analyzed: (1) old, coherent slumps and block slides, which have eroded and revegetated features and no active analogs in the area; (2) old earth flows, which are also eroded and revegetated; and (3) young rotational slumps, which are present only along near-river bluffs, and which are the only young, active landslides in the area.

Discriminant analysis shows that only one characteristic differs significantly between bluffs with and without young rotational slumps: failed bluffs tend to have sand and clay at their base, which may render them more susceptible to fluvial erosion.

Bluffs having old coherent slides are significantly higher, steeper, and closer to the hypocenters of the 1811-12 earthquakes than bluffs without these slides. Bluffs having old earth flows are likewise higher and closer to the earthquake hypocenters.

Multiple regression analysis indicates that the distribution of young rotational slumps is affected most strongly by slope steepness: about one-third of the variation in the distribution is explained by variations in slope steepness. The distribution of old coherent slides and earth flows is affected most strongly by slope height, but the proximity to the hypocenters of the 1811-12 earthquakes also significantly affects the distribution.

The results of the statistical analyses indicate that the only recently active landsliding in the area is along actively eroding river banks, where rotational slumps formed as bluffs are undercut by the river. The analyses further indicate that the old coherent slides and earth flows in the area are spatially related to the 1811-12 earthquake hypocenters and were thus probably triggered by those earthquakes. These results are consistent with findings of other recent investigations of landslides in the area that presented field, historical, and analytical evidence to demonstrate that old landslides in the area formed during the 1811-12 New Madrid earthquakes.

Results of the multiple linear regression can also be used to approximate the relative susceptibility of the bluffs in the study area to seismically induced landsliding.     

Variable post-Paleozoic deformation detected by seismic reflection profiling across the northwestern “prong” of New Madrid seismic zone

High-resolution shallow seismic reflection profiles across the northwesternmost part of the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) and northwestern margin of the Reelfoot rift, near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers in the northern Mississippi embayment, reveal intense structural deformation that apparently took place during the late Paleozoic and/or Mesozoic up to near the end of the Cretaceous Period. The seismic profiles were sited on both sides of the northeast-trending Olmsted fault, defined by varying elevations of the top of Mississippian (locally base of Cretaceous) bedrock. The trend of this fault is close to and parallel with an unusually straight segment of the Ohio River and is approximately on trend with the westernmost of two groups of northeast-aligned epicenters (“prongs”) in the NMSZ. Initially suspected on the basis of pre-existing borehole data, the deformation along the fault has been confirmed by four seismic reflection profiles, combined with some new information from drilling. The new data reveal (1) many high-angle normal and reverse faults expressed as narrow grabens and anticlines (suggesting both extensional and compressional regimes) that involved the largest displacements during the late Cretaceous (McNairy); (2) a different style of deformation involving probably more horizontal displacements (i.e., thrusting) that occurred at the end of this phase near the end of McNairy deposition, with some fault offsets of Paleocene and younger units; (3) zones of steeply dipping faults that bound chaotic blocks similar to that observed previously from the nearby Commerce geophysical lineament (CGL); and (4) complex internal deformation stratigraphically restricted to the McNairy, suggestive of major sediment liquefaction or landsliding. Our results thus confirm the prevalence of complex Cretaceous deformations continuing up into Tertiary strata near the northern terminus of the NMSZ.     

A technical note on seismic microzonation in the central United States

Microzonation is an effort to evaluate and map potential hazards found in an area, urban area in particular, that could be induced by strong ground shaking during an earthquake. These hazards include: ground motion amplification, liquefaction, and slope failure. The microzonation maps, depicting ground-motion amplification, liquefaction, and landslide potentials, can be produced if the ground motion on bedrock (input) and the site conditions are known. These maps, in combination with ground-motion hazard maps (on bedrock), can be used to develop a variety of hazard mitigation strategies such as seismic risk assessment, emergency response and preparedness, and land-use planning. However, these maps have certain limitations that result from the nature of regional mapping, data limitations, generalization, and computer modeling. These microzonations show that when strong ground shaking occurs, damage is more likely to occur, or be more severe, in the higher hazard areas. The zones shown on the hazard maps should not serve as a substitute for site-specific evaluations.     

Stratigraphic evidence for millennial-scale temporal clustering of earthquakes on a continental-interior fault: Holocene Mississippi River floodplain deposits, New Madrid seismic zone, USA

The earthquake cycles that characterize continental-interior areas that are far from active plate boundaries have proven highly cryptic and difficult to resolve. We used a novel paleoseismic proxy to address this issue. Namely, we reconstructed Holocene Mississippi River channels from maps of floodplain strata in order to identify channel perturbations reflective of major displacement events on the high-hazard and mid-plate Reelfoot thrust fault, New Madrid seismic zone, U.S.A. Only three discrete slip events are currently documented for the Reelfoot fault ( AD 900,  AD 1450, and AD 1812). This study extends this record and, thus, illustrates the utility of stratigraphic proxies as paleoseismic tools. We concurrently offer here some of the first quantified response times for tectonically induced channel pattern changes in large alluvial rivers.

We identified at least two cycles of pervasive meandering that were interrupted by channel-straightening responses occurring upstream of the Reelfoot fault scarp. These straightening responses initiated at 2244 BC +/− 269 to 1620 BC +/− 220 and  AD 900, respectively, and each records initiation of a period of Reelfoot fault slip after millennia of relative tectonic quiescence. The second (or New Madrid) straightening response was triggered by the previously known  AD 900 fault slip event, and this initial low sinuosity has been protracted until the modern day by the latter  AD 1450 and AD 1812 events. The first (or Bondurant) straightening response began a period of several hundred to  1400 years of low river sinuosity which evidences a similar period of multiple recurrent displacement events on the Reelfoot fault. These Bondurant events predate the existing paleoseismic record for the Reelfoot fault.

These data offer initial evidence that slip events on the Reelfoot fault were temporally clustered on millennial scales and, thus, offers the first direct evidence for millennial-scale clustering of earthquakes on a continental-interior fault. This carries additional ramifications. Namely, faults that have been quiescent and non-hazardous for millennia could re-enter an enduring period of recurrent hazardous earthquakes with little warning. Likewise, the Reelfoot fault also reveals evidence of temporal clustering of earthquakes on short-term cycles (months), as well as evidence for longer-term reactivation cycles (10⁴–10⁶ years). This introduces the possibility that temporal clustering could be hierarchical on some continental-interior faults.     

When the earth blisters: Exploring recurrent liquefaction features in the coastal system of Christchurch,New Zealand

The 14 February, or Valentine's Day, 2016 earthquake located offshore of Christchurch produced a new generation of liquefaction in the coastal environment of Christchurch, an environment of recurrent liquefaction during the 2010–2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence. The Valentine's Day earthquake occurred while trenches were open at a site in the coastal environment for studying the 2010–2011 liquefaction features. Observations in the 2016 trenches provided insights into the formation of a suite of surface and subsurface liquefaction features characteristic of the dune deposits, related to the persistent shallow water table, well‐sorted sands within the liquefiable layer and the soil above. Given these conducive conditions, there is a high potential that all earthquakes capable of inducing liquefaction may have been recorded during formation of the dunes near Christchurch. However, overprinting by subsequent generations of liquefaction features may be common and present challenges in unravelling the event history.     

Groundwater flow and capture zone analysis of the Central Passaic River Basin, New Jersey

Delineating capture zones of pumping wells is an important part of safe drinking water and well protection programs. Capture zones or contributing areas of a groundwater extraction well are the parts of the aquifer recharge areas from which the wells draw their water. Their extent and location depend on the hydrogeologic conditions such as groundwater recharge, pumping scenario and the aquifer properties such as hydraulic conductivity, porosity, heterogeneity of the medium and hydraulic gradient. Different methods of delineation can be used depending on the complexity of the hydrogeologic conditions. In this study, a 3-dimensional transient numerical MODFLOW model was developed for the Central Passaic River Basin (CPRB), and used with a MODPATH particle tracking code to determine 3-dimensional transient capture zones. Analytically calculated capture zones from previous studies at the site were compared with the new numerically simulated capture zones. The study results revealed that the analytical solution was more conservative, estimating larger capture zones than the numerical models. Of all the parameters that can impact the size, shape and location of a capture zone, the hydraulic conductivity is one of the most critical. Capture zones tend to be smaller in lower hydraulic conductivity areas.     

Faulting parameters of earthquakes in the New Madrid, Missouri, region

The advent of high-resolution digital seismic recording and advances in computer technology enable the combination of traditional regional seismic network observations with direct seismogram modeling to improve estimates of small earthquake faulting geometry, depth, and size. We illustrate a combined modeling approach using observations from three earthquakes that occurred within the environs of the New Madrid Seismic Zone: two Missouri earthquakes from September 26, 1990 and May 4, 1991; and the southern Illinois earthquake of February 5, 1994. We also re-examine the faulting geometry for two events from the 1960s that are inconsistent with the current estimate of the regional stress field. Based on direct modeling of the long-period seismograms associated with these events, we revise earlier estimates of the earthquake parameters for the March 3, 1963 and July 21, 1967 Missouri earthquakes. Comparing the new and revised results with existing earthquake mechanisms in the region, we find that tension-axes are generally aligned in a N-S to NW-SE direction, while the compression-axes trend in a NE to E direction. An interesting exception to this pattern are the March 3, 1963 and two nearby earthquakes that lie within a well-defined 30-km long left step in seismicity near New Madrid.     

Regional variations in electricity demand elasticities: The situation in the Central United States

Within the sizable literature on electricity demand relatively little attention is given to regional variations in electricity demand elasticities. This paper investigates 39 electric utility companies having a total of 93 separate operating regions in order to assess the nature of regional electricity demand elasticity variations. Residential, commercial, and industrial demand functions are estimated for each operating region using a flow adjustment model of demand. The resulting electricity price, measure of economic activity, and natural gas price elasticities vary regionally, but not in a systematic manner. The demand elasticities found in each sector range from highly inelastic to highly elastic with the pattern of elasticity variations exhibiting few spatial trends or relationships. Comparisons between operating region results and more aggregated statewide results indicate that statewide and national analysis of electricity demand masks much regional detail — a result which has important implications for energy policy making.     

Sources of nitrogen to estuaries in the United States

The purpose of this study was to quantify the nitrogen (N) inputs to 34 estuaries on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. Total nitrogen (TN) inputs ranged from 1 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for Upper Laguna Madre, Texas, to 49 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for Massachusetts Bay, Massachusetts. TN inputs to 11 of the 34 estuaries were dominated by urban N sources (point sources and septic systems) and nonpoint source N runoff (5% of total); point sources accounted for 36–86% of the TN inputs to these 11 urban-dominated estuaries. TN inputs to 20 of the 34 estuaries were dominated by agricultural N sources; N fertilization was the dominant source (46% of the total), followed by manure (32% of the total) and N fixation by crops (16% of the total). Atmospheric deposition (runoff from watershed plus direct deposition to the surface of the estuary) was the dominant N source for three estuaries (Barnegat Bay, New Jersey: 64%; St. Catherines-Sapelo, Georgia: 72%; and Barataria Bay, Louisiana: 53%). Six estuaries had atmospheric contributions ≥30% of the TN inputs (Casco Bay, Maine: 43%; Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts: 30%; Great Bay, New Jersey: 40%; Chesapeake Bay: 30%; Terrebonne-Timbalier Bay, Louisiana: 59%; and Upper Laguna Madre: 41%). Results from our study suggest that reductions in N loadings to estuaries should be accomplished by implementing watershed specific programs that target the dominant N sources.