气候变化适应对策的评价方法和工具

气候变化影响和适应对策方法评估的研究目的主要是建立和应用先进有效的分析工具和评价方法对气候变化脆弱性和适应对策进行科学评估. 因此需要了解当前已经在自然资源和环境研究中广泛使用的决策分析工具,掌握和了解各种适应对策评估工具的关键特性及其优缺点. 首先介绍各种有关适应对策的定义及两大类适应评估方法途径, 同时举例介绍不同方法在气候变化影响和适应评估研究中的应用. 常规的适应对策评估分析主要以政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)气候变化影响和适应对策评估技术指南中的方法工具为代表, 另一种适应对策研究则致力于改善各种对气候变化敏感系统的适应能力和复原能力. 文中对各种适应对策评估方法和工具进行了介绍和讨论,并提出气候变化适应研究的新方向.     

国际全球变化研究发展态势文献计量评价

-全球变化研究是国际上地球系统综合研究的重大跨学科研究领域。随着全球环境问题的日益突出，国际上先后组织发起了全球环境变化研究的四大科学计划WCRP、IGBP、IHDP、DIVERSITAS及其组成的地球系统科学联盟ESSP，开展对全球变化和地球系统科学的研究。当前，全球变化问题不仅是科学界关注和研究的问题，也是政治界、经济界都关注的重大问题。 科技文献能够反映科学前沿的发展动态。对SCIE和SSCI数据库收录的全球变化研究文献进行统计，从文献计量学的角度，分析国际全球变化研究领域的发展态势，了解中国全球变化研究的国际影响力。可以看出：国际上全球变化研究的论文数量一直呈增长趋势，以地球科学多学科、生态学、环境科学、自然地理学、植物学等学科领域为主。中国自2000年以来在该领域的发文数量增长较快，特别是中国科学院的发文量已进入国际前列，但中国在该研究领域尚缺少高影响力的论文。     

Consequences of Climate Change on the Ecogeomorphology of Coastal Wetlands

Climate impacts on coastal and estuarine systems take many forms and are dependent on the local conditions, including those set by humans. We use a biocomplexity framework to provide a perspective of the consequences of climate change for coastal wetland ecogeomorphology. We concentrate on three dimensions of climate change affects on ecogeomorphology: sea level rise, changes in storm frequency and intensity, and changes in freshwater, sediment, and nutrient inputs. While sea level rise, storms, sedimentation, and changing freshwater input can directly impact coastal and estuarine wetlands, biological processes can modify these physical impacts. Geomorphological changes to coastal and estuarine ecosystems can induce complex outcomes for the biota that are not themselves intuitively obvious because they are mediated by networks of biological interactions. Human impacts on wetlands occur at all scales. At the global scale, humans are altering climate at rapid rates compared to the historical and recent geological record. Climate change can disrupt ecological systems if it occurs at characteristic time scales shorter than ecological system response and causes alterations in ecological function that foster changes in structure or alter functional interactions. Many coastal wetlands can adjust to predicted climate change, but human impacts, in combination with climate change, will significantly affect coastal wetland ecosystems. Management for climate change must strike a balance between that which allows pulsing of materials and energy to the ecosystems and promotes ecosystem goods and services, while protecting human structures and activities. Science-based management depends on a multi-scale understanding of these biocomplex wetland systems. Causation is often associated with multiple factors, considerable variability, feedbacks, and interferences. The impacts of climate change can be detected through monitoring and assessment of historical or geological records. Attribution can be inferred through these in conjunction with experimentation and modeling. A significant challenge to allow wise management of coastal wetlands is to develop observing systems that act at appropriate scales to detect global climate change and its effects in the context of the various local and smaller scale effects.     

A Preliminary Study of Holocene Climate Change and Human Adaptation in the Horqin Region

Abstract: Human activity during the Holocene in the Horqin region, northeastern China, has been widely documented. As an important proxy record of human activity, black carbon (BC) in sediments has been linked to climate change and human adaptation. A loess-paleosol section located in south Horqin was chosen for this study. Holocene climate change and human adaptation to the environment were discussed by analyzing BC, organic carbon (OC) and other proxies. The conclusions included: (1) before 3900 cal BP, human activity was closely related to the natural environment and cultural development was dominated by climate change. For example, the rapid decline of the agrarian Hongshan culture was caused by a slight decrease in temperature at ~5000 cal BP; (2) during 3900-3200 cal BP, the heavy dependence of human societies on nature gradually lessened and the ability of those human societies to adapt to the environment was enhanced. However, the farming-dominated Lower Xiajiadian culture was nonetheless replaced by the pastoralist Upper Xiajiadian culture due to an extremely cooling event at ~3200 cal BP; (3) during the late Holocene period, the marked influence of climate change on human activity might have lessened as a result of a clear improvement in human labor skills. After this, human living styles were influenced by cultural developments rather than climate change because humans had mastered more powerful means of productivity.     

祁连山海北高寒湿地气候变化及植被演替分析

分析了近40a海北高寒湿地区域气候变化特征,以及近期湿地退化和植被演替的情况.结果表明:祁连山海北地区自1957年以来年平均气温以0.157℃·10a^-1的倾向率升高,年降水量约以1859mm·10a^-1的倾向率递减,年平均地温比同期气温的增加更为迅速,表现出海北地区气候及土壤性状均向干暖化趋势发展,特别是土壤干暖化程度尤为明显.由于人类活动加剧影响,超载过牧,原生植被遭受破坏,草场退化严重,地表潜在蒸散力加大.深层的多年冻土退化,冻胀草丘坍塌,导致湿地植被发生变化,使沼泽化草甸向典型草甸演替.不同年度调查结果表明,高寒湿地植被在气候干暖化趋势的加剧影响下,植物群落组成发生变异,物种多样性、生态优势度均比湿地原生植被的物种有增多的趋势.原生适应寒冷、潮湿生境的藏嵩草为主的草甸植被类型逐渐退化,有些物种甚至消失,而被那些寒冷湿中生为主的典型草甸类型所替代.组成植物群落的湿中生种类减少,中生种类(如线叶嵩草)大量增加,群落盖度相对降低,群落生产量大幅度下降.     

Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change: an Analysis of Inundation,Marsh Elevation,and Plant Communities in a Tidal Freshwater Marsh

Tidal freshwater marshes around the world face an uncertain future with increasing water levels, salinity intrusion, and temperature and precipitation shifts associated with climate change. Due to the characteristic abundance of both annual and perennial species in these habitats, even small increases in early growing season water levels may reduce seed germination, seedling establishment, and late-season plant cover, decreasing overall species abundance and productivity. This study looks at the distribution of tidal freshwater marsh plant species at Jug Bay, Patuxent River (Chesapeake Bay, USA), with respect to intertidal elevation, and the relationship between inundation early in the growing season and peak plant cover to better understand the potential impacts and marsh responses to increased inundation. Results show that 62% of marsh plant species are distributed at elevations around mean high water and are characterized by narrow elevation ranges in contrast with species growing at lower elevations. In addition, the frequency and duration of inundation and water depth to which the marsh was exposed to, prior to the growing season (March 15–May 15), negatively affected peak plant cover (measured in end-June to mid-July) after a threshold value was reached. For example, 36 and 55% decreases in peak plant cover were observed after duration of inundation threshold values of 25 and 36% was reached for annual and perennial species, respectively. Overall, this study suggests that plant communities of tidal freshwater marshes are sensitive to even small systematic changes in inundation, which may affect species abundance and richness as well as overall wetland resiliency to climate change.     

基于生态工程的海岸带全球变化适应性防护策略

在全球变化导致的海平面上升和灾害性气候等压力下,我国海岸带风暴潮、海岸侵蚀、地面沉降等灾害发生频率和强度正在增加,对海岸防护体系的需求日益提高。传统海岸防护工程维护成本高,更新困难,而且可能造成地面沉降、水质恶化、生态退化、渔业资源衰退等后果。基于生态工程的海岸防护提供了抵御海岸带灾害的新理念。修复和重建沙滩、红树林、沼泽湿地、珊瑚礁等海岸带生态系统,可以起到消浪、蓄积泥沙、抬升地面的作用,有效应对全球变化引发的灾害风险,形成更可持续的海岸防护体系。通过分析不同海岸防护技术的优势和限制,认为以生态工程为核心理念构建和管理我国海岸防护体系,才能起到保障社会经济发展和维持生态健康的最佳效果。     

Nature：沿海富营养化导致盐沼消失

2012年10月,Nature期刊发表了一篇题为《海富营养化促使盐沼消失》（Coastal eutrophication as a driverof salt marsh loss）的文章。文章指出,盐沼是一种具有很高生产力的沿海湿地,可以为人类提供重要的生态系统服务（例如沿岸城市的暴风雨防护、养分去除和碳封存）。尽管采取了很多保护措施,     

An Environmental Risk Assessment/Management Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments

This paper presents an environmental risk assessment/risk management framework to assess the impacts of climate change on individual exposure units identified as potentially vulnerable to climate change. This framework is designed specifically to manage the systematic uncertainties that accompany the propagation of climate change scenarios through a sequence of biophysical and socio-economic climate impacts. Risk analysis methods consistent with the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations are set within a larger framework that involves stakeholders in the identification, assessment and implementation of adaptation measures. Extensive consultation between parties occurs in a flexible structure that embeds scientific methods of risk analysis within a broad setting of social decision-making. This format is consistent with recent forms of environmental risk assessment/management frameworks. The risk analysis links key climatic variables expressed as projected ranges of climate change with an upper and lower limit, with impact thresholds identified collaboratively by researchers and stakeholders. The conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are then assessed (probabilities using this method are conditional as the full range of uncertainty for the various drivers of climate change, and their probability distributions, remains unknown). An example based on exceeding irrigation demand limited by an annual farm cap is used to show how conditional probabilities for the exceedance of a critical threshold can be used to assess the need for adaptation. The time between the identification of an acceptable level of risk and its exceedance is identified as a window of adaptation.The treatment of risk consists of two complementary actions, adaptation to anticipated changes in climate and the mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Both of these actions will reduce the risk of critical thresholds being exceeded. The potential of this framework for addressing specific requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change is discussed.     

Eutrophication-Driven Shifts in Primary Producers in Shallow Coastal Systems: Implications for System Functional Change

Significant progress has been made recently towards a better understanding of the nature, causes, and consequences of anthropogenic eutrophication of shallow coastal systems. It is well established that, in pristine systems dominated by seagrasses, incipient to moderate eutrophication often leads to the replacement of seagrasses by phytoplankton and loose macroalgal mats as the dominant producers. However, less is known about the interactions between phytoplankton and loose macroalgae at intense eutrophication. Using a combination of original research and literature data, we provide support for the hypothesis that substantial macroalgal decline may occur at intense eutrophication due to severe water column shading. Our results suggest that such declines may be widespread. However, we also show that intense eutrophication is not always necessarily conducive to severe water column shading and large macroalgal declines, possibly due to short water residence time and/or elevated grazing on phytoplankton. Furthermore, we provide support to the hypothesis that the occurrence of hypoxic/anoxic conditions in eutrophication-driven shifts in dominant primary producer assemblages influences the nature and extent of functional change in the system. Focusing on the macroalgal blooms and seagrass decline that often occur at incipient/moderate eutrophication, we show the blooms have a positive effect on epifaunal abundance under well-oxygenated conditions, but a negative effect if pervasive anoxic/hypoxic conditions develop with the bloom. These findings provide support to prior suggestions that secondary productivity in shallow coastal systems may increase as seagrasses get replaced by loose macroalgal stands if the stands remain well oxygenated. In concert, our results contribute to an improvement of our current model of eutrophication of shallow coastal systems and suggest that further effort should be put on ascertaining the mechanisms that may prevent severe water column shading and large macroalgal decline at intense eutrophication, as well as thorough documentation of the impacts of anoxic/hypoxic conditions on system functionality at different stages of eutrophication.     

Climate Change and Extreme Weather: A Basis for Action

The economic and social costs of extreme weather-related events have been increasing around the globe. There is some debate over how much of this past increase has been due to social factors and how much due to changes in frequency or characteristics of extreme events. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001a) has affirmed that humans are having a role in changing the climate and will have a larger role in the future. Although the changes in extreme events are by their nature both difficult to detect and difficult to model, the consensus is that there will be changes in the future. Through a risk-based decision-making analysis, it is concluded that society should make the additional investments to reduce vulnerability to this increased risk.     

Interactions of Salinity,Marsh Fragmentation and Submerged Aquatic Vegetation on Resident Nekton Assemblages of Coastal Marsh Ponds

Increases in relative sea level are fragmenting the emergent vegetation of Louisiana’s coastal marshes. Nekton abundance is likely impacted by salinity and whether emergent vegetation is replaced by submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) or open water. To assess these effects, we sampled nekton densities along a salinity gradient (categorized as freshwater, intermediate, and brackish marsh) in fragmented and non-fragmented areas. Total nekton density increased strongly with SAV in brackish marsh but only weakly in freshwater marsh (F _2,238 = 10.03, p < 0.0001). Freshwater and intermediate marshes had higher nekton densities when fragmented than when non-fragmented; this relationship was reversed in brackish marsh (F _2,238 = 8.89, p = 0.0002). Fragmentation, SAV, and salinity interacted to affect the densities of Gambusia affinis, Poecilia latipinna, Cyprinodon variegates, and Lucania parva. Our results suggest that the presence of both emergent vegetation and SAV was necessary for maintaining high nekton densities, with this combination being especially important in brackish marshes.     

Drivers of Change in Shallow Coastal Photic Systems: An Introduction to a Special Issue

Coastal ecosystems are characterized by relatively deep, plankton-based estuaries and much shallower systems where light reaches the bottom. These latter systems, including lagoons, bar-built estuaries, the fringing regions of deeper systems, and other systems of only a few meters deep, are characterized by a variety of benthic primary producers that augment and, in many cases, dominate the production supplied by phytoplankton. These “shallow coastal photic systems” are subject to a wide variety of both natural and anthropogenic drivers and possess numerous natural “filters” that modulate their response to these drivers; in many cases, the responses are much different from those in deeper estuaries. Natural drivers include meteorological forcing, freshwater inflow, episodic events such as storms, wet/dry periods, and background loading of optically active constituents. Anthropogenic drivers include accelerated inputs of nutrients and sediments, chemical contaminants, physical alteration and hydrodynamic manipulation, climate change, the presence of intensive aquaculture, fishery harvests, and introduction of exotic species. The response of these systems is modulated by a number of factors, notably bathymetry, physical flushing, fetch, sediment type, background light attenuation, and the presence of benthic autotrophs, suspension feeding bivalves, and fringing tidal wetlands. Finally, responses to stressors in these systems, particularly anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, consist of blooms of phytoplankton, macroalgae, and epiphytic algae, including harmful algal blooms, subsequent declines in submerged aquatic vegetation and loss of critical habitat, development of hypoxia/anoxia particularly on short time scales (i.e., “diel-cycling”), fish kills, and loss of secondary production. This special issue of Estuaries and Coasts serves to integrate current understanding of the structure and function of shallow coastal photic systems, illustrate the many drivers that cause change in these systems, and synthesize their varied responses.     

Assessment of Plant Community Characteristics in Natural and Human-Altered Coastal Marsh Ecosystems

Salt marsh ecosystems provide many critical ecological functions, yet they are subject to considerable disturbance ranging from direct human alteration to increased inundation due to climate change. We assessed emergent salt marsh plant characteristics in the Tuckerton Peninsula, a large expanse (~ 2000 ha) of highly inundated habitat along the southern New Jersey coast, USA. Key salt marsh plant parameters were monitored in the heavily grid-ditched northern segment, Open Marsh Water Management (OMWM) altered central segment, and the shoreline altered southern segment of the peninsula in the summer months of 2011 and 2013. Plant species composition and three metrics of abundance and structure (maximum canopy height, percent areal cover, and shoot density) were examined among marsh segments, along transects within segments, seasonally by month and between years. Despite seasonal or annual variability, the northern segment of the marsh differed in plant species composition from the central and southern segments. This difference was partly due to greater percent areal cover in the northern segment of upper marsh species such as Spartina patens and Distichlis spicata. S. patens also exhibited higher shoot densities in the northern segment than the central segment. Despite the higher abundance of upper marsh species, marsh surface elevations were lower in the northern segment than in the central or southern segments, suggesting the influence of altered hydrology due to human activities. Understanding current variation in the emergent salt marsh vegetation along the peninsula will help inform future habitat change in other coastal wetlands of New Jersey and the mid-Atlantic region subject to natural and anthropogenic drivers.     

Data issues at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

Climate Change research is even more becoming a data intensive and oriented scientific activity. Petabytes of climate data, big collections of datasets are continuously produced, delivered, accessed, processed by scientists and researchers at multiple sites at an international level. This work presents the Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change (CMCC) initiative, discussing data and metadata issues and dealing with both architectural and infrastructural aspects concerning the adopted grid enabled solution. A complete overview of the grid services deployed at the Centre is presented as well as the client side support (CMCC data portal and monitoring dashboard).     

基于地面激光扫描的典型海岸带盐沼潮滩地形反演

海岸带潮滩地形具有快速变化的特点;在盐沼植被覆盖的潮滩区域,地面激光扫描仪（terrestrial laser scanning,TLS）获取地形数据受到地表植被的影响。为了研究TLS在盐沼潮滩使用的地形测量精度与盐沼植被种类、盖度的关系,本文以芦苇群落、白茅群落、互花米草群落、海三棱藨草群落4种典型海岸带盐沼植被群落为研究对象,在移动窗口法的基础上辅以聚类分析的植被滤除算法,分别从点云原始数据中恢复地表地形地貌特征。研究结果表明：1）植被盖度越高,TLS反演地形精度越低,两者负相关。2）不同植被的激光穿透能力不同：盖度大于50%时,激光无法穿透原始盖度分别为70%、65%、65%的白茅群落、互花米草群落、海三棱藨草群落,均方根误差（root-mean-square error,RMSE）分别为22.0、22.0、8.6 cm;盖度等于50%时,白茅群落、海三棱藨草群落、芦苇群落和互花米草群落的RMSE分别为16.0、6.6、4.5、5.7 cm;盖度小于50%时,芦苇群落、互花米草群落、海三棱藨草群落地形反演精度小幅度提高,白茅群落地形反演精度提升较为明显。3）在盐沼潮滩地区使用TLS反演地形时,增加TLS架设高度、对同一区域多方位反复扫描可能有助于提高地形反演效果。     

Nitrogen Pools of Macrophyte Species in a Coastal Lagoon Salt Marsh: Implications for Seasonal Storage and Dispersal

High nitrogen (N) loading rates received by coastal bays can have deleterious effects on aquatic ecosystems. Salt marshes can intercept land-based N through seasonal plant uptake, denitrification, and burial. Salt marshes fringing Delaware’s Inland Bays are characterized by different plant species occurring in close proximity. To evaluate N pool retention and loss for the dominant plant species, we measured seasonal N concentration and pool size, N resorption efficiency, loss during decomposition, and soil N. Seasonal variation in N pools and fluxes differed among species. Seasonal differences in the total N pools of the herbaceous species were largely influenced by belowground fine root and dead macro-organic matter fluxes. N production rate estimates ranged from 18 g N m⁻² year⁻¹ aboveground for the high marsh shrub to 40.8 g N m⁻² year⁻¹ above- and belowground for the high marsh rush illustrating the importance of incorporating species-specific dynamics into ecosystem N budgets.     

1960-2005年南四湖流域气候变化趋势及其突变分析

利用1960-2005年南四湖流域22个气象台站逐月气温、降水量、 20 cm蒸发皿蒸发量资料, 分析了该流域近46 a来的气候变化趋势及其突变情况. 结果表明: 南四湖流域春季、冬季及年平均气温呈显著的上升趋势;四季及年降水量变化趋势不显著;四季及年蒸发皿蒸发量均呈显著的下降趋势, 且夏、春两季降幅大于秋、冬两季. 年平均气温在1985年发生了增温突变, 年降水量没有发生突变;年蒸发皿蒸发量在1969年和1985年发生年际突变. 利用单个环境因子的变化来解释蒸发皿蒸发量变化会产生偏颇.     

Sources of Terrestrial Organic Carbon in the Mississippi Plume Region: Evidence for the Importance of Coastal Marsh Inputs

High sedimentation rates along river-dominated margins make these systems important repositories for organic carbon derived from both allochthonous and autochthonous sources. Using elemental carbon/nitrogen ratios, molecular biomarker (lignin phenol), and stable carbon isotopic (bulk and compound-specific) analyses, this study examined the sources of organic carbon to the Louisiana shelf within one of the primary dispersive pathways of the Mississippi River. Surface sediment samples were collected from stations across the inner, mid, and outer Louisiana shelf, within the Mississippi River plume region, during two cruises in the spring and fall of 2000. Lignin biomarker data showed spatial patterns in terrestrial source plant materials within the river plume, such that sediments near the mouth of the Mississippi River were comparatively less degraded and richer in C₄ plant carbon than those found at mid-depth regions of the shelf. A molecular and stable isotope-based mixing model defining riverine, marsh, and marine organic carbon suggested that the highest organic carbon inputs to the shelf in spring were from marine sources (55?C61% marine organic carbon), while riverine organic carbon was the highest (63%) in fall, likely due to lower inputs of marine organic carbon at this time compared with the spring season. This model also indicated that marsh inputs, ranging from 19 to 34% and 3?C15% of the organic carbon in spring and fall, respectively, were significantly more important sources of organic carbon on the inner Louisiana shelf than previously suggested. Finally, we propose that the decomposition of terrestrial-derived organic carbon (from the river and local wetlands sources) in mobile muds may serve as a largely unexplored additional source of oxygen-consuming organic carbon in hypoxic bottom waters of the Louisiana shelf.     

Climate Change and Pastoral Economy in Kenya:A Blinking Future

Abstract: The present paper examines the changing climatic scenarios and associated effects on livestock farming (pastoralism) in the arid and semi arid lands (ASAL) of Kenya, which cover over 80% of the country. The study was carried out in the semi arid Mukogodo Division of Laikipia District in Kenya. This division received a mean annual rainfall of approximately 507.8?mm and the main source of livelihood was pastoralism. Questionnaire, structured interview, observation and literature review were the main methods of data collection. Rainfall was used in delineating changes in climate. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Markov process were used in analyzing drought severity and persistence, respectively. Approximately 38% of all droughts between 1975 and 2005 were prolonged and extremely severe, with cumulative severity indices ranging between ?2.54 and ?6.49. The probability that normal climatic conditions persisted for two or more consecutive years in Mukogodo Division remained constant at approximately 52%. However, the probability of wet years persisting for two or more years showed a declining trend, while persistence of dry years increased with duration. A drying climatic trend was established. This drying trend in the area led to increased land degradation and encroachment of invasive nonpalatable bushes. The net effect on pastoralism was large-scale livestock loss through starvation, disease and cattle rustling. Proper drought monitoring and accurate forecasts, community participation in all government interventions, infrastructural development in the ASAL and allocation of adequate resources for livestock development are some of the measures necessary for mitigating the dwindling pastoral economy in Kenya and other parts of the world.