A multiple-parameter approach to andesitic tephra correlation, Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand

A multi-parameter approach was used to correlate andesitic tephras in a complex tephra sequence ranging in age from ca. 23 to ca. 75 ka on the eastern ring plain of Ruapehu volcano, North Island. Field properties, combined with ferromagnesian mineral assemblages and mineral compositions, were required to map and correlate this sequence. Three tephra units could be identified based on their unique physical appearance, but other tephras could not be correlated on this basis alone. Hornblende and olivine proved to be valuable marker minerals enabling further distinction of two of the marker units recognised by field properties, as well as defining two further marker tephras. Unweathered titanomagnetite crystals, present in all of the tephras, were subjected to major-element analysis by electron microprobe. Canonical discriminant function analysis (DFA) of these analyses enabled the grouping and discrimination of tephra units, further aiding the identification of defined marker units, as well as defining new marker units. The titanomagnetite chemistry showed a strong relationship to the ferromagnesian mineralogy, showing that the ferromagnesian phenocrysts formed from the same melt or under the same melt conditions prior to eruption of each tephra. Canonical DFA was also applied to hornblende and olivine mineral analyses to identify further marker beds and to confirm identifications of previously defined units. This statistical analysis was found to be invaluable in reducing the large amount of compositional data from this study into a useable form for andesitic tephra correlation and mapping.     

Quantifying volcanic ash fall hazard to electricity infrastructure

Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures.     

Developing probabilistic eruption forecasts for dormant volcanoes: a case study from Mt Taranaki,New Zealand

The majority of continental arc volcanoes go through decades or centuries of inactivity, thus, communities become inured to their threat. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify hazard from sporadically active volcanoes and to develop probabilistic eruption forecasts. We compiled an eruption-event record for the last c. 9,500 years at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand through detailed radiocarbon dating of recent deposits and a sediment core from a nearby lake. This is the highest-precision record ever collected from the volcano, but it still probably underestimates the frequency of eruptions, which will only be better approximated by adding data from more sediment core sites in different tephra-dispersal directions. A mixture of Weibull distributions provided the best fit to the inter-event period data for the 123 events. Depending on which date is accepted for the last event, the mixture-of-Weibulls model probability is at least 0.37–0.48 for a new eruption from Mt Taranaki in the next 50 years. A polymodal distribution of inter-event periods indicates that a range of nested processes control eruption recurrence at this type of arc volcano. These could possibly be related by further statistical analysis to intrinsic factors such as step-wise processes of magma rise, assembly and storage.     

Improved age estimates for Holocene Ko-g and Ma-f~j tephras in northern Japan using Bayesian statistical modelling

The Ko-g and Ma-f~j tephras are two key isochronous marker layers in northern Japan, which are from the largest Plinian eruptions of Komagatake volcano (VEI = 5) and Mashu caldera (VEI = 6), respectively. Despite extensive radiocarbon studies associated with the two tephras, individual calibrated results show considerable variations and thus accurate ages of these important eruptions remain controversial. Bayesian statistical approaches to calibrating radiocarbon determinations have proven successful in increasing accuracy and sometimes precision for dating tephras, which is achieved through the incorporation of additional stratigraphic information and the combination of evidence from multiple records. Here we use Bayesian approaches to analyse the proximal and distal information associated with the two tephra markers. Through establishing phase and deposition models, we have taken into account all of the currently available stratigraphic and chronological information. The cross-referencing of phase models with the deposition model allows the refinement of eruption ages and the deposition model itself. Using this we are able to provide the most robust current age estimates for the two tephra layers. The Ko-g and Ma-f~j tephras are hereby dated to 6657-6505 (95.4%; 6586±40, μ±σ) cal yr BP, and 7670-7395 (95.4%; 7532±72, μ±σ) cal yr BP, respectively. These updated age determinations underpin the reported East Asian Holocene tephrostratigraphic framework, and allow sites where the tephra layers are present to be dated more precisely and accurately. Our results encourage further applications of Bayesian modelling techniques in the volcanically active East Asian region.     

Sourcing and identifying andesitic tephras using major oxide titanomagnetite and hornblende chemistry,Egmont volcano and Tongariro Volcanic Centre,New Zealand

 Canonical discriminant function analysis was employed to discriminate between electron microprobe-determined titanomagnetite and hornblende analyses from Egmont volcano and Tongariro Volcanic Centre. Data sets of 436 titanomagnetite and 206 hornblende analyses from the two sources were used for the study. Titanomagnetite chemistry provided the best discrimination between these two sources with classification efficiencies of 99% for sample averages and 95% for individual analyses. The difference between sources for hornblende chemistry was less marked, but classification efficiencies of 100% for sample averages and 87% for individual analyses were achieved. Using the same methods a preliminary discrimination of individual Egmont volcano-sourced tephras was attempted. Titanomagnetite chemistry enabled the discrimination of several individual tephras or at least pairs of tephra units, but hornblende chemistry provided little discrimination. This technique provides an improvement on previous methods for chemically distinguishing distal tephra from the two sources as well as potentially identifying individual tephras from a particular source. A major advantage over previous discrimination techniques is that individual analyses can be classified with a known probability of group membership (with groups such as volcano source or an individual tephra unit). Tephras in a depositional environment where mixing is common such as within soil, loess and marine sequences, can be sourced or identified more easily with classification of individual grains. Received: 19 July 1995 / Accepted: 13 February 1996     

Distal record of multi-sourced tephra in Onepoto Basin,Auckland, New Zealand: implications for volcanic chronology,frequency and hazards

We have documented 80 tephra beds dating from ca. 9.5 to >50 ka, contained within continuously deposited palaeolake sediments from Onepoto Basin, a volcanic explosion crater in Auckland, New Zealand. The known sources for distal (>190 km from vent) tephra include the rhyolitic Taupo Volcanic Centre (4) and Okataina Volcanic Centre (14), and the andesitic Taranaki volcano (40) and Tongariro Volcanic Centre (3). The record provides evidence for four new events between ca. 50 and 28 ka (Mangaone Subgroup) suggesting Okataina was more active than previously known. The tephra record also greatly extends the known northern dispersal of other Mangaone Subgroup tephra. Ten rhyolitic tephra pre-date the Rotoehu eruption (>ca. 50 ka), and some are chemically dissimilar to post-50 ka rhyolites. Some of these older tephra were produced by large-magnitude events; however, their source remains uncertain. Eight tephra from the local basaltic Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) are also identified. Interpolation of sedimentation rates allow us to estimate the timing of 12 major explosive eruptions from Taranaki volcano in the 27.5-9.5-ka period. In addition, 28 older events are recognised. The tephra are trachytic to rhyolitic in composition. All have high K₂O contents (>3 wt%), and there are no temporal trends. This contrasts with the proximal lava record that shows a trend of increasing K₂O with time. By combining the Onepoto tephra record with that of the previously documented Pukaki crater, 15 AVF basaltic fall events are constrained at: 34.6, 30.9, 29.6, 29.6, 25.7, 25.2, 24.2, 23.8, 19.4, 19.4, 15.8 and 14.5 ka, and three pre-50 ka events. This provides some of the best age constraints for the AVF, and the only reliable data for hazard recurrence calculations. The minimum event frequency of both distal and local fall events can be estimated, and demonstrates the Auckland City region is frequently impacted by ash fall from many volcanoes.     

Petrologic investigations of the 1995 and 1996 eruptions of Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand: formation of discrete and small magma pockets and their intermittent discharge

 Ruapehu volcano erupted intermittently between September and November 1995, and June and July 1996, producing juvenile andesitic scoria and bombs. The volcanic activity was characterized by small, sequential phreatomagmatic and strombolian eruptions. The petrography and geochemistry of dated samples from 1995 (initial magmatic eruption of 18 September 1995, and two larger events on 23 September and 11 October), and from 1996 (initial and larger eruptions on 17–18 June) suggest that episodes of magma mixing occurred in separate magma pockets within the upper part of the magma plumbing system, producing juvenile andesitic magma by mixing between relatively high (1000–1200  °C)- and low (∼1000  °C)- temperature (T) end members. Oscillatory zoning in pyroxene phenocrysts suggests that repeated mixing events occurred prior to and during the 1995 and 1996 eruptions. Although the 1995 and 1996 andesitic magmas are products of similar mixing processes, they display chronological variations in phenocryst clinopyroxene, matrix glass, and whole-rock compositions. A comparison of the chemistry of magnesian clinopyroxene in the four tephras indicates that, from 18 September through June 1996, the tephras were derived from at least two discrete high-temperature (high-T) batches of magma. Crystals of magnesian clinopyroxene in the 23 September and 11 October tephras appear to be derived from different high-T magma batches. Whole-rock and matrix-glass compositions of all tephras are consistent with their derivation from distinct mixed melts. We propose that, prior to 1995 there was a shallow low-temperature (low-T) magma storage system comprising crystal-rich mush and remnant magma from preceding eruptive episodes. Crystal clots and gabbroic inclusions in the tephras attest to the existence of relict crystal mush. At least two discrete high-T magmas were then repeatedly injected into the mush zone, forming discrete and mixed magma pockets within the shallow system. The intermittent 1995 and 1996 eruptions sequentially tapped these magma pockets. Received: 1 April 1998 / Accepted: 22 December 1998     

Clinopyroxene and Fe-Ti oxides for correlating the ash from Changbaishan Millennium eruption

Volcanic glass compositions and tephra layer age are critical for anchoring their sources and correlating among different sites; however, such work may be imprecise when the tephra has varied compositions. The ash from Changbaishan Millennium eruption (940s AD), a widely distributed tephra layer, has been detected in the far-east areas of Russia, the Korean Peninsula, Japan, and in Greenland ice cores. There are some debates on the presence of this tephra from sedimentary archives to the west of Changbaishan volcano, such as lake and peat sediments in the Longgang volcanic field. In this paper, major element compositions for clinopyroxene and Fe-Ti oxides were performed on proximal tephra from Changbaishan and the Millennium eruption ash record in Lake Sihailongwan. Clinopyroxene and Fe-Ti oxides microlites from Sihailongwan show augite- ferroaugite and titanmagnetite compositions, similar to those from dark pumice in Changbaishan proximal tephra, but different from the light grey pumice, which has ferrohedenbergite and ilmenite microlite compositions. This result implies that the tephra recorded in Sihailongwan was mainly from the trachytic eruptive phase of the Millennium eruption, and the rhyolitic eruptive phase made a relatively small contribution to this area. Analyzing clinopyroxene and Fe-Ti oxides microlites is a new method for correlating tephra layers from Changbaishan Millennium eruption.     

Frequent eruptions of Mount Rainier over the last ∼2,600 years

Field, geochronologic, and geochemical evidence from proximal fine-grained tephras, and from limited exposures of Holocene lava flows and a small pyroclastic flow document ten–12 eruptions of Mount Rainier over the last 2,600 years, contrasting with previously published evidence for only 11–12 eruptions of the volcano for all of the Holocene. Except for the pumiceous subplinian C event of 2,200 cal year BP, the late-Holocene eruptions were weakly explosive, involving lava effusions and at least two block-and-ash pyroclastic flows. Eruptions were clustered from ∼2,600 to ∼2,200 cal year BP, an interval referred to as the Summerland eruptive period that includes the youngest lava effusion from the volcano. Thin, fine-grained tephras are the only known primary volcanic products from eruptions near 1,500 and 1,000 cal year BP, but these and earlier eruptions were penecontemporaneous with far-traveled lahars, probably created from newly erupted materials melting snow and glacial ice. The most recent magmatic eruption of Mount Rainier, documented geochemically, was the 1,000 cal year BP event. Products from a proposed eruption of Mount Rainier between AD 1820 and 1854 (X tephra of Mullineaux (US Geol Surv Bull 1326:1–83, 1974)) are redeposited C tephra, probably transported onto young moraines by snow avalanches, and do not record a nineteenth century eruption. We found no conclusive evidence for an eruption associated with the clay-rich Electron Mudflow of ∼500 cal year BP, and though rare, non-eruptive collapse of unstable edifice flanks remains as a potential hazard from Mount Rainier. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. T. W. Sisson and J. W. Vallance contributed equally to this study.     

Clarifying the distal to proximal tephrochronology of the Millennium (B–Tm) eruption,Changbaishan Volcano,northeast China

Tephra dispersed during the Millennium eruption (ME), Changbaishan Volcano, NE China provides one of the key stratigraphic links between Asia and Greenland for the synchronization of palaeoenvironmental records. However, controversy surrounds proximal-distal tephra correlations because (a) the proposed proximal correlatives of the distal ME tephra (i.e. B–Tm) lack an unequivocal chronostratigraphic context, and (b) the ME tephra deposits have not been chemically characterized for a full spectrum of element using grain-specific techniques. Here we present grain-specific glass chemistry, including for the first time, single grain trace element data, for a composite proximal sequence and a distal tephra from Lake Kushu, northern Japan (ca. 1100 km away from Changbaishan). We demonstrate a robust proximal-distal correlation and that the Kushu tephra is chemically associated with the ME/B–Tm. We propose that three of the proximal pyroclastic fall units were erupted as part of the ME. The radiocarbon chronology of the Kushu sedimentary record has been utilised to generate a Bayesian age-depth model, providing an age for the Kushu tephra which is consistent with high resolution ages determined for the eruption and therefore supports our geochemical correlation. Two further Bayesian age-depth models were independently constructed each incorporating one of two ice-core derived ages for the B–Tm tephra, providing Bayesian modelled ages of 933–949 and 944–947 cal AD (95.4%) for the Kushu tephra. The high resolution ice-core tephra ages imported into the deposition models help test and ultimately constrain the radiocarbon chronology in this interval of the Lake Kushu sedimentary record. The observed geochemical diversity between proximal and distal ME tephra deposits clearly evidences the interaction of two compositionally distinct magma batches during this caldera forming eruption.     

Explosive eruptive record in the Katmai region,Alaska Peninsula: an overview

At least 15 explosive eruptions from the Katmai cluster of volcanoes and another nine from other volcanoes on the Alaska Peninsula are preserved as tephra layers in syn- and post-glacial (Last Glacial Maximum) loess and soil sections in Katmai National Park, AK. About 400 tephra samples from 150 measured sections have been collected between Kaguyak volcano and Mount Martin and from Shelikof Strait to Bristol Bay (∼8,500 km²). Five tephra layers are distinctive and widespread enough to be used as marker horizons in the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes area, and 140 radiocarbon dates on enclosing soils have established a time framework for entire soil–tephra sections to 10 ka; the white rhyolitic ash from the 1912 plinian eruption of Novarupta caps almost all sections. Stratigraphy, distribution and tephra characteristics have been combined with microprobe analyses of glass and Fe–Ti oxide minerals to correlate ash layers with their source vents. Microprobe analyses (typically 20–50 analyses per glass or oxide sample) commonly show oxide compositions to be more definitive than glass in distinguishing one tephra from another; oxides from the Kaguyak caldera-forming event are so compositionally coherent that they have been used as internal standards throughout this study. Other than the Novarupta and Trident eruptions of the last century, the youngest locally derived tephra is associated with emplacement of the Snowy Mountain summit dome (<250 ¹⁴C years B.P.). East Mageik has erupted most frequently during Holocene time with seven explosive events (9,400 to 2,400 ¹⁴C years B.P.) preserved as tephra layers. Mount Martin erupted entirely during the Holocene, with lava coulees (>6 ka), two tephras (∼3,700 and ∼2,700 ¹⁴C years B.P.), and a summit scoria cone with a crater still steaming today. Mount Katmai has three times produced very large explosive plinian to sub-plinian events (in 1912; 12–16 ka; and 23 ka) and many smaller pyroclastic deposits show that explosive activity has long been common there. Mount Griggs, fumarolically active and moderately productive during postglacial time (mostly andesitic lavas), has three nested summit craters, two of which are on top of a Holocene central cone. Only one ash has been found that is (tentatively) correlated with the most recent eruptive activity on Griggs (<3,460 ¹⁴C years B.P.). Eruptions from other volcanoes NE and SW beyond the Katmai cluster represented in this area include: (1) coignimbrite ash from Kaguyak’s caldera-forming event (5,800 ¹⁴C years B.P.); (2) the climactic event from Fisher caldera (∼9,100 ¹⁴C years B.P.—tentatively correlated); (3) at least three eruptions most likely from Mount Peulik (∼700, ∼7,700 and ∼8,500 ¹⁴C years B.P.); and (4) a phreatic fallout most likely from the Gas Rocks (∼2,300 ¹⁴C years B.P.). Most of the radiocarbon dating has been done on loess, soil and peat enclosing this tephra. Ash correlations supported by stratigraphy and microprobe data are combined with radiocarbon dating to show that variably organics-bearing substrates can provide reliable limiting ages for ash layers, especially when data for several sites is available.     

Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand. II: Hazard consequences and risk calculation

In a companion paper, a methodology for ranking volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk was presented, and the likelihood and extent of potential hazards in the Auckland Region, New Zealand investigated. In this paper, the effects of each hazard are considered and the risk ranking completed. Values for effect are proportions of total loss and, as with likelihood and extent, are based on order of magnitude.Two outcomes were considered – building damage and loss of human life. In terms of building damage, tephra produces the highest risk by an order of magnitude, followed by lava flows and base surge. For loss of human life, risk from base surge is highest. The risks from pyroclastic flows and tsunami are an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, tephra fall followed by base surge produces the highest risk. The risks from lava flows and pyroclastic flows are an order of magnitude smaller. For building damage, the risk from Mt. Taranaki volcano, 280 km from the Auckland CBD, is largest, followed by Okataina volcanic centre, an Auckland volcanic field eruption centred on land, then Tongariro volcanic centre. In terms of human loss, the greatest risk is from an Auckland eruption centred on land. The risks from an Auckland eruption centred in the ocean, Okataina volcanic centre, and Taupo volcano are more than an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, the risk from Mt. Taranaki remains highest, followed by an Auckland eruption centred on land. The next largest risks are from the Okataina and Tongariro volcanic centres, followed by Taupo volcano.Three alternative situations were investigated. As multiple eruptions may occur from the Auckland volcanic field, it was assumed that a local event would involve two eruptions. This increased risk of a local eruption occurring on land so that it was equal to that of an eruption from Mt. Taranaki. It is possible that a future eruption may be of a similar, or larger size, to the previous Rangitoto eruption. Risk was re-calculated for local eruptions based on the extent of hazards from Rangitoto. This increased the risk of lava flow to greater than that of base surge, and the risk from an Auckland land eruption became greatest. The relative probabilities used for Mt. Taranaki volcano and the Auckland volcanic field may only be minimum values. When the probability of these occurring was increased by 50%, there was no change in either ranking.Editorial responsibility: J. S. Gilbert     

One Million Years tephra record at IODP Sites U1436 and U1437: Insights into explosive volcanism from the Japan and Izu arcs

The 1 Myr tephra records of IODP (International Ocean Discovery Program) Holes U1436A and U1437B in the Izu‐Bonin fore‐ and reararc were investigated in order to assess provenance and eruptive volumes, respectively. In total, 304 tephra samples were examined and 260 primary tephra layers were identified. Tephra provenance was determined by means of major and trace element compositions of glass shards and distinguished between Japan and Izu‐Bonin arc origin of the tephra layers. A total of 33 marine tephra compositions were correlated to the Japan arc and 227 to the Izu arc. Twenty marine tephra layers were correlated between the two drilling sites. Additionally, we defined eleven correlations of marine tephra deposits to major widespread Japanese eruptions; from the 1.05 Ma Shishimuta‐Pink Tephra to the 30 ka Aira‐Tn Tephra, both from Kyushu Island. These eruptions provide independent time markers within the sediment record and six correlations were used to date tephra layers from Japan in Hole U1436A to establish an alternative age model for this hole. Furthermore, the minimum distal tephra volumes of all detected events were calculated, which enabled the comparison of the tephra volumes that derived from the Japan and the Izu‐Bonin arcs. For some of the major Japanese eruptions these are the first volume estimations that also include distal deposits. All of the Japanese tephras derived from events with eruption magnitude M_v ≥ 5.6 and three of the investigated eruptions reach magnitudes M_v ≥ 7. Volcanic events of the Izu‐Bonin arc have mostly eruption magnitudes M_v ≤ 5.     

Compositions of glass in proximal tephras from eruptions in the Azores archipelago and their links with distal sites in Ireland

The Azores archipelago is one of the most active volcanic areas in the North Atlantic region, with approximately 30 eruptions during the last 600 years. The geochemical composition of associated tephra-derived glass is, however, not well characterized. This study presents major element compositions of glass shards from five major eruptives on the Azores: a trachybasaltic eruptive on the island of Faial (Capelinhos AD, 1957) and four explosive trachytic eruptives on the island of São Miguel (Fogo A c. 5600 cal yrs. BP, Sete Cidades c. AD 1440, Fogo AD 1563 and Furnas AD 1630). The major element compositions suggest that tephras from three active stratovolcanoes on São Miguel, Sete Cidades, Fogo and Furnas, can be distinguished from one another using bi-plots of FeO_tot vs. TiO₂ and FeO_tot vs. CaO. Late Holocene tephras found on Ireland have previously been attributed to eruptions occurring on Jan Mayen but possess a strong geochemical similarity to proximal tephras from the Azores, especially those from the Furnas volcano. The similarity of the proximal tephras on São Miguel, especially Furnas AD 1563 and Furnas AD 1630 and distal tephras in Ireland is demonstrated by strong similarity coefficients (>0.95) and the closeness of major element composition. The dominant wind direction over the Azores is favourable for tephra dispersal to western Europe and we suggest that at least three tephras found in Ireland were erupted from the Furnas volcano, and that trachytic tephras erupted from explosive eruptions on São Miguel have a potential to contribute to the construction of a European-wide tephrostratigraphic framework.     

Improved age modelling and high-precision age estimates of late Quaternary tephras,for accurate palaeoclimate reconstruction

The role of tephrochronology, as a dating and stratigraphic tool, in precise palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction, has expanded significantly in recent years. The power of tephrochronology rests on the fact that a tephra layer can stratigraphically link records at the resolution of as little as a few years, and that the most precise age for a particular tephra can be imported into any site where it is found. In order to maximise the potential of tephras for this purpose it is necessary to have the most precise and robustly tested age estimate possible available for key tephras. Given the varying number and quality of dates associated with different tephras it is important to be able to build age models to test competing tephra dates. Recent advances in Bayesian age modelling of dates in sequence have radically extended our ability to build such stratigraphic age models. As an example of the potential here we use Bayesian methods, now widely applied, to examine the dating of some key Late Quaternary tephras from Italy. These are: the Agnano Monte Spina Tephra (AMST), the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (NYT) and the Agnano Pomici Principali (APP), and all of them have multiple estimates of their true age. Further, we use the Bayesian approaches to generate a revised mixed radiocarbon/varve chronology for the important Lateglacial section of the Lago Grande Monticchio record, as a further illustration of what can be achieved by a Bayesian approach. With all three tephras we were able to produce viable model ages for the tephra, validate the proposed ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age ranges for these tephras, and provide relatively high precision age models. The results of the Bayesian integration of dating and stratigraphic information, suggest that the current best 95% confidence calendar age estimates for the AMST are 4690–4300 cal BP, the NYT 14320–13900 cal BP, and the APP 12380–12140 cal BP.     

TEPHRA RECORD FROM QUANYANG PEAT OF THE CHANGBAISHAN MILLENNIUM ERUPTION

Tephra, usually produced by explosive eruptions, is deposited rapidly, hence, it can serve as a distinctive and widespread synchronous marker horizon correlating terrestrial, marine and ice core records. The tephra from Changbaishan Millennium eruption, a widely distributed tephra, is an important marker bed across the Japan Sea, Japan Islands and even in the Greenland ice cores 9000km away from volcanic vent. In this study, a discrete tephra was identified in the Quanyang peat~45km northeast to the Changbaishan volcano. Radiocarbon ¹⁴ C dating on the plant remains constrains an age of 886-1013calAD(95.4%)to the tephra layer, which can correspond to the Millennium eruption of Changbaishan in time. In addition, there was no similar volcanic eruption in the surrounding areas except Changbaishan at the same time. This tephra shows rhyolitic glass shards major element compositions similar to those rhyolitic tephra from Millennium eruption. This study illustrates that tephra from Millennium eruption has been transported to Quanyang peat~45km northwest to the Changbaishan volcano. Additionally, the diameter of the pumice lapilli is up to 0.3cm, implying that the tephra must be transported more distal away from Quanyang peat and formed a widely distributed isochronic layer. Glass geochemistry of the Quanyang tephra, different from the distal tephra recorded at Sihailongwan, Japan, and Greenland ice, shows a close affinity to the pyroclastic flow deposits of the Millennium eruption while not from fall deposits. This may indicate that distribution of the Millennium eruption of Changbaishanin in different directions may be controlled by different stages of eruption. This layer with well-defined annual results can be used to optimize the chronological framework of the corresponding sedimentary environment, thus facilitating more accurate discussion of corresponding environmental changes, which can achieve the contrast of the ancient climate records in the whole Northeast China-Japan and arctic regions.     

Reprint of Glass compositions and tempo of post-17 ka eruptions from the Afar Triangle recorded in sediments from lakes Ashenge and Hayk,Ethiopia

Numerous volcanoes in the Afar Triangle and adjacent Ethiopian Rift Valley have erupted during the Quaternary, depositing volcanic ash (tephra) horizons that have provided crucial chronology for archaeological sites in eastern Africa. However, late Pleistocene and Holocene tephras have hitherto been largely unstudied and the more recent volcanic history of Ethiopia remains poorly constrained. Here, we use sediments from lakes Ashenge and Hayk (Ethiopian Highlands) to construct the first <17 cal ka BP tephrostratigraphy for the Afar Triangle. The tephra record reveals 21 visible and crypto-tephra layers, and our new database of major and trace element glass compositions will aid the future identification of these tephra layers from proximal to distal locations. Tephra compositions include comendites, pantellerites and minor peraluminous and metaluminous rhyolites. Variable and distinct glass compositions of the tephra layers indicate they may have been erupted from as many as seven volcanoes, most likely located in the Afar Triangle. Between 15.3−1.6 cal. ka BP, explosive eruptions occurred at a return period of <1000 years. The majority of tephras are dated at 7.5−1.6 cal. ka BP, possibly reflecting a peak in regional volcanic activity. These findings demonstrate the potential and necessity for further study to construct a comprehensive tephra framework. Such tephrostratigraphic work will support the understanding of volcanic hazards in this rapidly developing region.     

Glass compositions and tempo of post-17 ka eruptions from the Afar Triangle recorded in sediments from lakes Ashenge and Hayk,Ethiopia

Numerous volcanoes in the Afar Triangle and adjacent Ethiopian Rift Valley have erupted during the Quaternary, depositing volcanic ash (tephra) horizons that have provided crucial chronology for archaeological sites in eastern Africa. However, late Pleistocene and Holocene tephras have hitherto been largely unstudied and the more recent volcanic history of Ethiopia remains poorly constrained. Here, we use sediments from lakes Ashenge and Hayk (Ethiopian Highlands) to construct the first <17 cal ka BP tephrostratigraphy for the Afar Triangle. The tephra record reveals 21 visible and crypto-tephra layers, and our new database of major and trace element glass compositions will aid the future identification of these tephra layers from proximal to distal locations. Tephra compositions include comendites, pantellerites and minor peraluminous and metaluminous rhyolites. Variable and distinct glass compositions of the tephra layers indicate they may have been erupted from as many as seven volcanoes, most likely located in the Afar Triangle. Between 15.3−1.6 cal. ka BP, explosive eruptions occurred at a return period of <1000 years. The majority of tephras are dated at 7.5−1.6 cal. ka BP, possibly reflecting a peak in regional volcanic activity. These findings demonstrate the potential and necessity for further study to construct a comprehensive tephra framework. Such tephrostratigraphic work will support the understanding of volcanic hazards in this rapidly developing region.     

Stratigraphic framework of Holocene volcaniclastic deposits, Akutan Volcano, east-central Aleutian Islands, Alaska

 Akutan Volcano is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian arc, but until recently little was known about its history and eruptive character. Following a brief but sustained period of intense seismic activity in March 1996, the Alaska Volcano Observatory began investigating the geology of the volcano and evaluating potential volcanic hazards that could affect residents of Akutan Island. During these studies new information was obtained about the Holocene eruptive history of the volcano on the basis of stratigraphic studies of volcaniclastic deposits and radiocarbon dating of associated buried soils and peat. A black, scoria-bearing, lapilli tephra, informally named the "Akutan tephra," is up to 2 m thick and is found over most of the island, primarily east of the volcano summit. Six radiocarbon ages on the humic fraction of soil A-horizons beneath the tephra indicate that the Akutan tephra was erupted approximately 1611 years B.P. At several locations the Akutan tephra is within a conformable stratigraphic sequence of pyroclastic-flow and lahar deposits that are all part of the same eruptive sequence. The thickness, widespread distribution, and conformable stratigraphic association with overlying pyroclastic-flow and lahar deposits indicate that the Akutan tephra likely records a major eruption of Akutan Volcano that may have formed the present summit caldera. Noncohesive lahar and pyroclastic-flow deposits that predate the Akutan tephra occur in the major valleys that head on the volcano and are evidence for six to eight earlier Holocene eruptions. These eruptions were strombolian to subplinian events that generated limited amounts of tephra and small pyroclastic flows that extended only a few kilometers from the vent. The pyroclastic flows melted snow and ice on the volcano flanks and formed lahars that traveled several kilometers down broad, formerly glaciated valleys, reaching the coast as thin, watery, hyperconcentrated flows or water floods. Slightly cohesive lahars in Hot Springs valley and Long valley could have formed from minor flank collapses of hydrothermally altered volcanic bedrock. These lahars may be unrelated to eruptive activity. Received: 31 August 1998 / Accepted: 30 January 1999