Numerical modeling and dynamic analysis of the 2017 Xinmo landslide in Maoxian County,China

A catastrophic landslide occurred at Xinmo village in Maoxian County, Sichuan Province,China, on June 24, 2017. A 2.87×106 m3 rock mass collapsed and entrained the surface soil layer along the landslide path. Eighty-three people were killed or went missing and more than 103 houses were destroyed. In this paper, the geological conditions of the landslide are analyzed via field investigation and high-resolution imagery. The dynamic process and runout characteristics of the landslide are numerically analyzed using a depth-integrated continuum method and Mac Cormack-TVD finite difference algorithm.Computational results show that the evaluated area of the danger zone matchs well with the results of field investigation. It is worth noting that soil sprayed by the high-speed blast needs to be taken into account for such kind of large high-locality landslide. The maximum velocity is about 55 m/s, which is consistent with most cases. In addition, the potential danger zone of an unstable block is evaluated. The potential risk area evaluated by the efficient depthintegrated continuum method could play a significant role in disaster prevention and secondary hazard avoidance during rescue operations.     

Geometrical feature analysis and disaster assessment of the Xinmo landslide based on remote sensing data

At 5:39 am on June 24, 2017, a landslide occurred in the village of Xinmo in Maoxian County, Aba Tibet and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture(Sichuan Province, Southwest China). On June 25, aerial images were acquired from an unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV), and a digital elevation model(DEM) was processed. Landslide geometrical features were then analyzed. These are the front and rear edge elevation, accumulation area and horizontal sliding distance. Then, the volume and the spatial distribution of the thickness of the deposit were calculated from the difference between the DEM available before the landslide, and the UAV-derived DEM collected after the landslide. Also, the disaster was assessed using high-resolution satellite images acquired before the landslide. These include Quick Bird, Pleiades-1 and GF-2 images with spatial resolutions of 0.65 m, 0.70 m, and 0.80 m, respectively, and the aerial images acquired from the UAV after the landslide with a spatial resolution of 0.1 m. According to the analysis, the area of the landslide was 1.62 km2, and the volume of the landslide was 7.70 ± 1.46 million m3. The average thickness of the landslide accumulation was approximately 8 m. The landslide destroyed a total of 103 buildings. The area of destroyed farmlands was 2.53 ha, and the orchard area was reduced by 28.67 ha. A 2-km section of Songpinggou River was blocked and a 2.1-km section of township road No. 104 was buried. Constrained by the terrain conditions, densely populated and more economically developed areas in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River basin are mainly located in the bottom of the valleys. This is a dangerous area regarding landslide, debris flow and flash flood events Therefore, in mountainous, high-risk disaster areas, it is important to carefully select residential sites to avoid a large number of casualties.     

奉节县曾家棚滑坡时空差异性变形特征与成因机制分析

研究库水位波动和降雨影响下滑坡的位移变形特征并分析其破坏机制，对了解三峡库区滑坡的演化过程具有重要意义。以奉节曾家棚滑坡为例，基于GPS地表监测位移分析了滑坡在不同特征库水位运行阶段的变化规律，结合灰色关联度模型确定了滑坡不同部位的变形在不同阶段的主要控制因素，借助GEO-Studio软件模拟了曾家棚滑坡在历史降雨和库水位波动耦合作用下的稳定性变化，并与定量分析结果进行了交叉检验。结果表明:曾家棚滑坡的运动状态随时间变化，从缓慢蠕变状态进入阶跃变形状态。平面上，中东部坡体与西部坡体相比，运动更加强烈；剖面上，前缘变形早且变形量大。曾家棚滑坡变形失稳过程为初期蓄水启动了曾家棚古滑坡，前缘首先发生变形；降雨作为中后期主控因素，和库水位波动联合作用共同诱发了滑坡多次阶跃变形，使滑坡前中后部形成贯通裂缝；最终由二十年一遇的暴雨诱发滑坡发生整体破坏。      

Formation mechanism of a rainfall triggered complex landslide in southwest China

This case study is about a landslide that occurred after 4 days of heavy rainfall,in the morning of June 29,2012,in Cengong County,Guizhou Province of China,geographical coordinated 108°20′-109°03′E,27°09′-27°32′N,with an estimated volume of 3.3×106 m3.To fully investigate the landslide process and formation mechanism,detailed geotechnical and geophysical investigations were performed including borehole drilling,sampling,and laboratory tests coupled with monitoring of displacement.Also,a combined seepage-slope stability modeling was performed to study the behavior of the landslide.After the heavy rainfall event,the sliding process started in this area.The landslide development can be divided into different parts.The man-made fill area,spatially distributed in the south side of the landslide area with low elevations,slid first along the interface between the slope debris and the strongly weathered bedrock roughly in the EW direction.Consequently,due to severe lateral shear disturbance,the slope in the main sliding zone slid next towards the SW direction,along the sliding surface developed within the strongly weathered calcareous shale formation located at a depth of 25-35 m.This means it was a rainfall triggered deep-seated landslide.Finally,retrogressive failure of a number of upstream blocks occurred,which moved in more than one direction.The initial failure of the man-made fill area was the‘engine’of the whole instability framework.This artificial material with low permeability,piled up in the accumulation area of surface and sub-surface and destroyed the drainage capacity of the groundwater.The numerical modeling results agreed with the analysis results obtained from the laboratory and field investigations.A conceptual model is given to illustrate the formation mechanism and development process of the landslide.     

Characteristics and future projections of summer extreme precipitation in Sichuan Province,China

Based on the precipitation data observed by stations and data simulated by 23 CMIP5 models, the features and future changes of summer(Jun-JulAug) extreme precipitation events in Sichuan Province of China were analysed. We found that the total precipitation(RSum), extreme precipitation threshold(Threshold90), extreme precipitation(TR90), extreme precipitation percentage(TR90 pct) and extreme precipitation intensity(TR90 str) decreased from the southeast to the northwest in Sichuan Province, reflecting the differences between eastern Sichuan(ESC, basins) and western Sichuan(WSC, mountains). Compared with the observations, most of the CMIP5 models showed that there were wet biases in WSC and an unclear bias pattern in ESC for the RSum, Threshold90, TR90, and TR90 str. However, the extreme precipitation days(ND90) and TR90 pct values simulated by the models were generally overestimated and underestimated,respectively. Compared with the historical period, most models showed obvious increases in the TR90 and TR90 pct in the 21 century, while the characteristics of Rsum, ND90, and TR90 str were inconspicuous. Compared with the mid-21 st century, the extreme precipitation in the late-21 st century exhibited a certain degree of increase. Even during the same period, the results of RCP8.5 were higher than those of RCP4.5, especially for the ND90, TR90, and TR90 pct.     

新铺下二台滑坡变形机制及中长期预报模型

以奉节新铺下二台滑坡为例,基于GPS位移监测数据、裂缝数据、降雨量及库水位等多源数据,总结分析了大型古滑坡的复活规律,引入滑坡中长期预报模型,实现了以季度或月份为时间单位的跨水文年滑坡位移预测,并通过岩土体蠕变压缩模型,验证了推移式滑坡后缘裂缝形成机理。结果表明：(1)降雨是下二台滑坡变形的主导因素,滑坡变形使得滑体产生裂缝并成为降雨入渗通道,加剧了岩体破碎与软弱层软化,降低了滑坡稳定性,集中持续降雨可使滑坡失稳破坏;(2)通过模型预测值与地表监测数据的比较,将年降雨量作为滑坡中长期预报模型中的主控因素具有实际可操作性且有助于提高滑坡中长预报精度;(3)推移式滑坡后缘裂缝由滑坡推移式位移和岩土体压缩形成,引入蠕变压缩模型计算的裂缝宽度并和监测数据的比较说明,蠕变压缩模型非常适合该类边坡,同时应用岩土体蠕变压缩模型反推得到岩土体平均变形模量,判断岩体破碎程度,可以为滑坡稳定性分析及后续工程治理提供参考。     

Characteristics of landslide in Koshi River Basin,Central Himalaya

Koshi River basin, which lies in the Central Himalayas with an area of 71,500 km2, is an important trans-boundary river basin shared by China, Nepal and India. Yet, landslide-prone areas are all located in China and Nepal, imposing alarming risks of widespread damages to property and loss of human life in both countries. Against this backdrop, this research, by utilizing remote sensing images and topographic maps, has identified a total number of 6877 landslides for the past 23 years and further examined their distribution, characteristics and causes. Analysis shows that the two-step topography in the Himalayan region has a considerable effect on the distribution of landslides in this area. Dense distribution of landslides falls into two regions: the Lesser Himalaya(mostly small and medium size landslides in east-west direction) and the TransitionBelt(mostly large and medium size landslides along the river in north-south direction). Landslides decrease against the elevation while the southern slopes of the Himalayas have more landslides than its northern side. Change analysis was carried out by comparing landslide distribution data of 1992, 2010 and 2015 in the Koshi River basin. The rainfallinduced landslides, usually small and shallow and occurring more frequently in regions with an elevation lower than 1000 m, are common in the south and south-east slopes due to heavy precipitation in the region, and are more prone to the slope gradient of 20°~30°. Most of them are distributed in Proterozoic stratum(Pt3ε, Pt3 and Pt2-3) and Quaternary stratum. While for earthquake-induced landslides, they are more prone to higher elevations(2000~3000 m) and steeper slopes(40°~50°).     

Characteristics and failure mechanism of an ancient earthquake-induced landslide with an extremely wide distribution area

The Lamuajue landslide is located in Lamuajue village on the right bank of the Meigu River,Sichuan Province, China. This landslide is an ancient landslide with an extremely wide distribution area,covering an area of 19 km~2 with a maximum width of5.5 km and an estimated residual volume of 3×10~8 m~3.The objectives of this study were to identify the characteristics and failure mechanism of this landslide. In this study,based on field investigations,aerial photography, and profile surveys, the boundary,lithology, structure of the strata, and characteristics of the landslide deposits were determined. A gently angled weak interlayer consisting of shale was the main factor contributing to the occurrence of the Lamuajue landslide. The deposition area can be divided into three zones: zone A is an avalanche deposition area mainly composed of blocks,fragments, and debris with diameters ranging from0.1 m to 3 m; zone B is a residual integrated rock mass deposition area with large blocks,boulders and "fake bedrock"; and zone C is a deposition zone of limestone blocks and fragments. Three types of failure mechanism were analyzed and combined to explain the Lamuajue landslide based on the features of the accumulation area. First, a shattering-sliding mechanism caused by earthquakes in zone A. Second,a sliding mechanism along the weak intercalation caused by gravity and water in zone B. Third,a shattering-ejection mechanism generated by earthquakes in zone C. The results provide a distinctive case for the study of gigantic landslides induced by earthquakes, which is very important for understanding and assessing ancient earthquakeinduced landslides.     

Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Atmospheric Pollution and Cause Analysis of Haze Events in Sichuan Basin,China

This study analyzed the spatio-temporal variability of air quality data for six standard air pollutants(Particulate Matter 2.5(PM_2.5), Particulate Matter 10(PM₁₀), SO₂, NO₂, CO, and O₃) in the Sichuan Basin(SCB), China from 2015 to 2018 in relation to the formation of haze using conventional meteorological data(temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity), satellite data(fire point data, vertical profiles of aerosol subtypes, and aerosol ...     

2017-06巴东MS4.3地震序列视应力变化

采用固定台站的宽频带数字地震波形资料,计算2017-06-16巴东MS4.3地震序列16个ML1.8以上地震的视应力、拐角频率及震源破裂半径等震源参数,并系统分析地震视应力值与各参数之间的关系。结果表明,地震序列视应力值与震级正相关,地震震源谱的高频成分不丰富,拐角频率和视应力值均远小于非水库区的构造地震,震源区地下结构较为复杂。     

基于近台数据的2017-06巴东M4.3地震序列震源深度研究

利用三峡遥测地震台网和流动加密台资料计算2017-06巴东M4.3地震序列震源深度并分析其深度误差。结果显示,序列震源深度主要分布在3~5 km;流动加密台观测明显改善了震源深度测定精度,其震源深度误差由平均1.8 km减少到1.1 km。研究认为,直达波法测定三峡遥测台网（特别是布置流动加密台后）网内地震可获得较高精度的震源深度。     

四川西部西康群新都桥组碳酸盐岩的锶同位素特征

四川西部松潘—甘孜地区广泛分布一套三叠系黑色砂板岩层系,由于其岩性单调、古生物化石贫乏,给该区地层划分、对比带来极大困难。因此,从锶同位素地层学基本原理出发,对甘孜北部西康群新都桥组中薄层状灰岩样品进行了锶同位素组成测定。结果表明,6件样品的N(87Sr)/N(86Sr)分别为0.708688、0.708659、0.708907、0.708223、0.708341、0.708266,平均为0.708514。表明该地层的碳酸盐岩样品可能遭受了不同程度的成岩蚀变,多数样品的锶同位素组成偏离同时代的全球海水锶同位素组成。     

Assessment of prospective hazards resulting from the 2017 earthquake at the world heritage site Jiuzhaigou Valley,Sichuan, China

On August 8, 2017, a Ms = 7.0 magnitude earthquake occurred in the Jiuzhaigou Valley, in Sichuan Province, China(N: 33.20°, E: 103.82°). Jiuzhaigou Valley is an area recognized and listed as a world heritage site by UNESCO in 1992. Data analysis and field survey were conducted on the landslide, collapse, and debris flow gully, to assess the coseismic geological hazards generated by the earthquake using an unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV), remote-sensing imaging, laser range finders, geological radars, and cameras. The results highlighted the occurrence of 13 landslides, 70 collapses, and 25 potential debris flow gullies following the earthquake. The hazards were classified on the basis of their size and the potential property loss attributable to them. Consequently, 14 large-scale hazards, 30 medium-sized hazards, and 64 small hazards accounting for 13%, 28%, and 59% of the total hazards, respectively, were identified. Based on the variation tendency of the geological hazards that ensued in areas affected by the Kanto earthquake(Japan), Chi-chi earthquake(Taiwan China), and Wenchuan earthquake(Sichuan China), the study predicts that, depending on the rain intensity cycle, the duration of geological hazard activities in the Jiuzhaigou Valley may last over ten years and will gradually decrease for the following five to ten yearsbefore returning to pre-earthquake levels. Thus,necessary monitoring and early warning systems must be implemented to ensure the safety of residents,workers and tourists during the construction of engineering projects and reopening of scenic sites to the public.     

Tectonic mechanism of the Suining (Ms5.0) earthquake, center of Sichuan Basin, China

On Jan.31 of 2010,the Suining earthquake occurred at Suining City whch is located the center of Sichuan Basin.It is unusual for the strong earthquake to occur at the center of Sichuan Basin with a stable geotectonic environment and a low-level historical seismicity.The macro-epicenter of the earthquake is located at Moxi town of Suining city,Sichuan province,China.The earthquake intensity of the epicenter area is degree VII,and the long axis of the isoseismal line trends in NE orientation.The Suining earthquake caused the collapse or destruction of 460 family houses.The earthquake focal mechanism solution and records of the near-field seismographic stations showed the earthquake occurred at the reverse fault at a depth 34 km.Based on the waveform and focal mechanism,we consider the Suning earthquake is triggered by the reverse fault and not by the gravitational collapse or man-made explosive sources.Basing on seismic refraction profile and borehole,we consider that the earthquake is triggered by the backthrust fault of Moxi anticline rooted in detachments at a depth 3-4 km.Furthermore,we infer that tectonic mechanism of the Suining(Ms5.0) Earthquake is driven by the horizontal crustal shortening and stress adjustment on a shallow detachment after the Wenchuan(Ms 8.0) earthquake.     

Numerical simulation of a high-speed landslide in Chenjiaba,Beichuan, China

High-speed landslide is a catastrophic geological disaster in the mountainous area of southwest China. To predict the movement process of landslide reactivation in Chenjiaba town, Beichuan county, Sichuan province, China, we simulated the movement process of two landslide failures in Chenjiaba via rapid mass movement simulation and unmanned aerial vehicle images(UAV), and obtained the movement characteristic parameters of the landslides. According to a back analysis, the most remarkable fitting rheological parameters were friction coefficient(μ=0.18) and turbulence(). The parameter of landslide pressure was applied as the zoning index of landslide hazard to obtain the influence zone and hazard zoning map of the Chenjiaba landslide. Results show that the Duba River was blocked quickly with a landslide accumulation at the maximum height of 44.14 mwhen the Chenjiaba deposits lost stability. The hazard zoning map indicated that the landslide hazard degree is positively correlated with the slope.This landslide assessment is a quantitative hazard assessment method based on a landslide movement process and is suitable for high-speed landslide. Such method can provide a scientific basis for urban construction and planning in the landslide hazard area to avoid hazards effectively.     

The Influence of Gender and Other Characteristics on Rural Laborers' Employment Patterns in the Mountainous and Upland Areas of Sichuan,China

This study examines gender differences in rural laborers‘ employment patterns in the mountainous and upland areas of Sichuan, China. The analysis employs both representative survey data of 400 households and geographical data. Multinomial logistic regression models are used to analyze the influences of gender, among other factors, on employment decisions of rural males and females, where the factors considered include personal, household, community natural environmental characteristics. Dividing laborers into four categories, we find that the proportions of males who participating in on-farm, pluriactive, and off-farm work, and unemployment were 24.41%, 28.64%, 46.27%, and 0.68% respectively, while that of females who participating in on-farm, pluriactive, and offfarm work, and unemployment were 43.20%, 13.95%, 30.95%, and 11.90% respectively. As to individual characteristics, age(AGE) and physical condition(PHY) effects appeared to be more pronounced for men, while education(EDU) and marital status(MAR)effects appeared to be more pronounced for women. Regarding household and community characteristics, the effects of the presence in the household of children aged 6-(CHI), number of persons in the household(POP), and labor force(LAB), per capitaincome in village(INCV), and the development status of village enterprises(ENT) on women were greater than that on men. In addition, the presence in the household of elderly individuals aged 65+(OLD) and time to reach the nearest township(TIME) are shown to have opposite impacts on men and women. While the presence in the household of pupils(PUP) and per capital gross value of industrial output(GVIO) was found to be irresponsive to men and women taking pluriavtivity and off-farm job. With respect to natural environments characteristics, the effects on men were opposite of those on women. Unemployment of women was found to be particularly responsive to household characteristics. A multinomial regression approach is undertaken to analyze rural males‘ and females‘ decisions of the four employment patterns considered, an approach that reveals considerable heterogeneity that is concealed by the dichotomous approach employed in most previous studies. The study thus contributes to our understanding of rural employment patterns and gender difference in mountainous and upland areas.     

Impact of the Wenchuan Earthquake on tourism in Sichuan, China

An intensive earthquake, the Wenchuan Earthquake of 8.0 on the Richter scale, struck western Sichuan, China on May 12, 2008. The earthquake has tremendously affected all industries in the quake-hit areas, with no exception ：of the local tourism. The study of the effect of the earthquake on tourism enriches the theory of tourism, and more importantly, it well serves as the foundation for policy making. The objective of this study is to outline for readers the empirical findings on the various ways that the earthquake affected the operations and viability of tourism in the quake-hit areas. This paper is mainly divided into 3 parts. The first part is to discuss the importance of tourism in the quake-hit areas. The second is to analyze the influencing factors of tourism. The third is to assess the impact of the earthquake on tourism in Sichuan in different seasons.     

1993-2017年南海中尺度涡特征分析

【目的】研究1993-2017年南海中尺度涡的空间分布、季节变化、移动速度等特征。【方法】根据AVISO提供的地转流数据,应用Nencioli等人提出的涡旋识别算法。【结果】南海中尺度涡主要分布在南海东北部和越南东部海域,冬(夏)季有利于(反)气旋涡产生,中尺度涡以2.0～9.0cm/s的速度向西传播。【结论】南海气旋涡与反气旋逐年生成个数与ENSO事件相关,在1993-2007年期间,强(温和)厄尔尼诺年气旋涡生成数大于反气旋,弱(温和)拉尼娜年反气旋生成数大于气旋涡。2008-2017年,强厄尔尼诺年气旋涡生成数大于反气旋,温和拉尼娜年反气旋生成数小于气旋涡。在涡旋的生命周期内,涡旋半径与移动速度变化趋势相反。复杂海底地形会阻碍涡旋的传播。