Simulation-based risk assessment of contaminated sites under remediation scenarios, planning periods, and land-use patterns—a Canadian case study

Risk assessment of contaminated sites is crucial for quantifying adverse impacts on human health and the environment. It also provides effective decision support for remediation and management of such sites. This study presents an integrated approach for environmental and health risk assessment of subsurface contamination through the incorporation of a multiphase multicomponent modeling system within a general risk assessment framework. The method is applied to a petroleum-contaminated site in western Canada. Three remediation scenarios with different efficiencies (0, 60, and 90%) and planning periods (10, 20, 40, 60, and 80 years later) are examined for each of the five potential land-use plans of the study site. Then three risky zones with different temporal and spatial distributions are identified based on the local environmental guidelines and the excess lifetime cancer risk criteria. The obtained results are useful for assessing potential human health effects when the groundwater is used for drinking water supply. They are also critical for evaluating environmental impacts when the groundwater is used for irrigation, stockbreeding, fish culture, or when the site remains the status quo. Moreover, the results indicate that the proposed method can effectively identify risky zones with different risk levels under various remediation actions, planning periods, and land-use patterns.     

Monitoring the sea change: preliminary assessment of the conservation value of nearshore reefs, and existing impacts, in a high-growth, coastal region of subtropical eastern Australia

In northern NSW, Australia, coastal populations are forecast to increase dramatically over the next 25 years (the "sea change"). However, management of the effects of development on marine communities is hampered by the lack of data on key habitats. Consequently, we developed a protocol to assess the biodiversity and current human impacts on nearshore reefs, habitats that will be readily affected by coastal development. We assessed four reefs adjacent to each of three population centres targeting fish, mollusc and sessile benthic communities, and debris loads. Community structure was highly variable over all spatial scales indicating that reefs should not be considered equivalent within the planning framework. While, debris loads were relatively low on most reefs, those with highest conservation value also had the highest debris loads suggesting potential conflict between human use and long-term sustainability of reefal communities. Without intervention, this situation will be exacerbated in the future.     

Assessing sound exposure from shipping in coastal waters using a single hydrophone and Automatic Identification System (AIS) data

Underwater noise from shipping is a growing presence throughout the world's oceans, and may be subjecting marine fauna to chronic noise exposure with potentially severe long-term consequences. The coincidence of dense shipping activity and sensitive marine ecosystems in coastal environments is of particular concern, and noise assessment methodologies which describe the high temporal variability of sound exposure in these areas are needed. We present a method of characterising sound exposure from shipping using continuous passive acoustic monitoring combined with Automatic Identification System (AIS) shipping data. The method is applied to data recorded in Falmouth Bay, UK. Absolute and relative levels of intermittent ship noise contributions to the 24-h sound exposure level are determined using an adaptive threshold, and the spatial distribution of potential ship sources is then analysed using AIS data. This technique can be used to prioritize shipping noise mitigation strategies in coastal marine environments.     

Geospatial assessment of agroecosystem health: development of an integrated index based on catastrophe theory

Assessing agroecosystem health at landscape scale has been rarely reported. A geospatial assessment framework, by integrating remote sensing, geographical information systems, landscape metrics, geostatistics and catastrophe theory, was proposed and applied to characterize the spatial variations of agroecosystem health for a typical region in the eastern coastal agricultural plain, China. After appropriate pretreatments, eleven hierarchically structured indicators, subject to catastrophe models, were aggregated into an integrated index for each 30 m grid cell across the study area. Great spatial variations in agroecosystem health were identified. Areas covered by water bodies and impervious surfaces, under which soils can not function, generally presented low values. Larger slope or higher heavy metal polluted areas and those near roads showed low or moderate values of agroecosystem health index. Concerning the spatial variations of agroecosystems health, patches of approximately 4 km in diameter were identified, within which more homogenous patterns would be expected. Specifically, the spatial variations of agroecosystems health should be resulted from the location-specific coupled influences of the underlying indicators. The integrated agroecosystem health index is believed to be helpful for managers to promote environmental management. The geospatial assessment framework reported in this paper was simple and operational, and has potential to be applicable to other areas with similar conditions at landscape scale.     

Assessing cause and effect of multiple stressors on marine systems

An operational framework is developed to serve as a guideline for investigating causal relationships between environmental stressors and effects on marine biota. Because of the complexity and variability of many marine systems, multiple lines of evidence are needed to understand relationships between stressors and effects on marine resources. Within this framework, a weight of evidence approach based on multiple lines of evidence are developed and applied in a sequential manner by (1) characterizing the study system which involves determining if target biota are impaired, assessment of food and habitat availability, and measuring contaminant levels in the environment, (2) assessing direct effects of contaminant exposure on target biota using biomarkers and assessing indirect effects of exposure using suites of bioindicators, and (3) applying standard causal criteria based on epidemiological principles and diagnostic health profiling techniques to assess potential causes. Use of multiple lines of evidence should also reduce the risk of false positives (Type I error or falsely concluding that there is a causal relationship when there is none) and false negatives (Type II error or falsely concluding there is not a causal relationship when there actually is). Understanding causal relationships and the mechanistic processes between environmental stressors and effects on biota is important in the effective management and restoration of impaired marine ecosystems.     

A method of urban ecological risk assessment: combining the multimedia fugacity model and GIS

Industrial pollution has caused serious human health risk because the pollutants can be accumulated in human body via multi routes in a long term, especially in areas of rapid industrialization. It is of great importance to obtain the pollutants’ information, including the transport routes and spatial distribution in the various environmental media of different sub-regions, to facilitate more accurate risk assessment and more effective risk management in urban ecosystems. In this article, we proposed a research framework of urban ecological risk assessment method, which combines the multimedia fugacity model, the multi-route exposure model, exposure-risk relationships and geographic information system (GIS). An urban ecological risk assessment of a hypothetical region indicates that it is possible and feasible to introduce GIS into the previous method to satisfy the requirements of risk management. The assessment results can be further utilized for industrial pollution emission control.     

Methodology of disaster risk assessment for debris flows in a river basin

“Disaster risk assessment” is important in the planning of risk management strategies that reduce societal losses. However, governmental agencies in Taiwan generally assess risks that emerge from debris flows without adequately considering risk management and taking a systems approach. This work proposes an approach to thoroughly consider the interactive influence mechanism of debris flow disaster risk. Additionally, a systematic method for assessing disaster risks is developed. This proposed method can be used in the current risk assessment and as a basis for management strategy planning. Based on systems thinking, the components and attributes of a conceptual system of disaster risk management associated with debris flows in a river basin are identified. Subsequently, a conceptual mitigation–hazard–exposure–resistance framework and an indicator system for assessing the debris flow disaster risks in a river basin are identified. The disaster risks for each exposed community in each drainage zone can be systematically calculated based on the current status or plans of prevention and evacuation measures using the proposed indicator system. A case study of implementing the proposed methodology that involves the Chishan River Basin is presented, in which disaster risk according to the current status of prevention and evacuation measures is assessed. Drainage zones and communities with a significant debris flow disaster risk are located; this risk is associated with a lack of adequate prevention and evacuation measures that have been planned of government agencies. Analytical results indicate that the proposed methodology can systematically and effectively assess the disaster risks of a river basin. The proposed methodology provides a valuable reference for governmental agencies that must manage disaster risk associated with debris flows.     

Ecosystem service provision: an operational way for marine biodiversity conservation and management

Since no extensive conceptual framework has been developed on the issues of ecosystem service (ES) and service provider (SP) in the marine environment, we have made an attempt to apply these to the conservation and management of marine biodiversity. Within this context, an accurate individuation of SPs, namely the biological component of a given ecosystem that supports human activities is fundamental. SPs are the agents responsible for making the ES-based approach operational. The application of these concepts to the marine environment should be based on an model different to the terrestrial one. In the latter, the basic model envisages a matrix of a human-altered landscape with fragments of original biodiversity; conversely, in the marine environment the model provides fragments where human activities are carried out and the matrix is represented by the original biodiversity. We have identified three main classes of ES provision: in natural, disturbed and human-controlled environments. Economic valuation of marine ESs is an essential condition for making conservation strategies financially sustainable, as it may stimulate the perceived need for investing in protection and exploitation of marine resources.     

Managing water resources system in a mixed inexact environment using superiority and inferiority measures

A superiority–inferiority-based fuzzy-stochastic integer programming (SI-FSIP) method is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. In the SI-FSIP method, techniques of fuzzy mathematical programming with the superiority and inferiority measures and joint chance-constrained programming are integrated into an inexact mixed integer linear programming framework. The SI-FSIP improves upon conventional inexact fuzzy programming by directly reflecting the relationships among fuzzy coefficients in both the objective function and constraints with a high computational efficiency, and by comprehensively examining the risk of violating joint probabilistic constraints. The developed method is applied to a case study of water resources planning and flood control within a multi-stream and multi-reservoir context, where several studied cases (including policy scenarios) associated with different joint and individual probabilities are investigated. Reasonable solutions including binary and continuous decision variables are generated for identifying optimal strategies for water allocation, flood diversion and capacity expansion; the tradeoffs between total benefit and system-disruption risk are also analyzed. As the first attempt for planning such a water-resources system through the SI-FSIP method, it has potential to be applied to many other environmental management problems.     

Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values

The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging U.S. federal land management agencies to meet societal needs while maintaining the health of the lands they manage. In this paper we present a quantitative, geospatial wildfire risk assessment tool, developed in response to demands for improved risk-based decision frameworks. The methodology leverages off recent and significant advancements in wildfire simulation models and geospatial data acquisition and management. The tool is intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to develop information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. Wildfire risk assessment requires analyzing the likelihood of wildfire by intensity level, and the magnitude of potential beneficial and negative effects to valued resources from fire at different intensity levels. This effort is designed to support strategic planning by systematically portraying how fire likelihood and intensity influence risk to social, economic, and ecological values at the national scale. We present results for the continental United States, analyze high risk areas by geographic region, and examine how risk evaluations changes under different assumptions with sensitivity analysis. We conclude by discussing further potential uses of the tool and research needs.     

HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan - A regional programme of measures for the marine environment based on the Ecosystem Approach

The Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan, adopted by the coastal countries of the Baltic Sea and the European Community in November 2007, is a regional intergovernmental programme of measures for the protection and management of the marine environment explicitly based on the Ecosystem Approach. The Action Plan is structured around a set of Ecological Objectives used to define indicators and targets, including effect-based nutrient input ceilings, and to monitor implementation. The Action Plan strongly links Baltic marine environmental concerns to important socio-economic fields such as agriculture and fisheries and promotes cross-sectoral tools including marine spatial planning. Due to complementarities with the European Union (EU) Marine Strategy Framework Directive, the Action Plan is in essence a pilot for this process without neglecting the important role of the Russian Federation - the only Baltic coastal country not a member of the EU.     

Transforming management of tropical coastal seas to cope with challenges of the 21st century

Over 1.3 billion people live on tropical coasts, primarily in developing countries. Many depend on adjacent coastal seas for food, and livelihoods. We show how trends in demography and in several local and global anthropogenic stressors are progressively degrading capacity of coastal waters to sustain these people. Far more effective approaches to environmental management are needed if the loss in provision of ecosystem goods and services is to be stemmed. We propose expanded use of marine spatial planning as a framework for more effective, pragmatic management based on ocean zones to accommodate conflicting uses. This would force the holistic, regional-scale reconciliation of food security, livelihoods, and conservation that is needed. Transforming how countries manage coastal resources will require major change in policy and politics, implemented with sufficient flexibility to accommodate societal variations. Achieving this change is a major challenge – one that affects the lives of one fifth of humanity.     

Comparison of methods for integrating biological and physical data for marine habitat mapping and classification

An important first step in marine spatial planning and ecosystem-based management efforts is the creation of benthic habitat maps that allow scientists and managers to understand the distribution of living and non-living resources on the seafloor. However, the location of boundaries between and composition of habitats is highly dependent on the approach taken to integrate abiotic and biotic information. The purpose of this study was to test “top-down” and “bottom-up” approaches for integrating physical and biological data derived from commonly used sub-tidal benthic mapping tools to create a habitat map compatible with the US Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS). We found that a top-down framework, where we tested for differences in macrofauna assemblages among side scan sonar facies, defined two broad-scale and general habitats. Using the bottom-up approach, where patterns in abiotic and biotic variables were examined with multivariate statistics (BEST, LINKTREE, ANOSIM, SIMPER), we generated seven biotopes based on the macrofauna abundance, percent sand, water depth, and backscatter standard deviation that corresponded well to, but provided more fine-scale detail than the top-down habitats. We were able to use the statistical relationship between abiotic variables and macrofauna assemblages in the LINKTREE to predict the spatial distribution of assemblages over ∼50% of the study area. We created a local catalogue of biotopes specific to our study area that contributes to the CMECS library. In addition, we were able to fully map CMECS Geoform, Surface Geology, and Biotic Cover Components. This mapping effort represented real progress toward reconciling the “data density mismatch” between physical and biological mapping methods, and it provided further evidence that using a bottom-up methodology preserves species–environment relationships.     

Marine spatial planning and oil spill risk analysis: Finding common grounds

A flow of key information links marine spatial planning (MSP) and oil spill risk analysis (OSRA), two distinct processes needed to achieve true sustainable management of coastal and marine areas. OSRA informs MSP on areas of high risk to oil spills allowing a redefinition of planning objectives and the relocation of activities to increase the ecosystem’s overall utility and resilience. Concomitantly, MSP continuously generates a large amount of data that is vital to OSRA. The Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) mapping system emerges as an operational tool to implement the MSP–OSRA link. Given the high level of commonalities between ESI and MSP data (both in biophysical and human dimensions), ESI tools (both paper maps and dynamic GIS-based product) are easily developed to further inform MSP and oil spill risk management. Finally, several other benefits from implementing the MSP–OSRA link are highlighted.     

Assessment of biopollution in aquatic ecosystems

The introduction of alien species (AS) in marine environments is a factor of disturbance that can be viewed as a pollution agent. Using basic information on abundance and distribution of alien species, we developed an index that classifies AS impacts on native species, communities, habitats and ecosystem functioning. This method can be used to evaluate impact at five different levels of biopollution, fitting within the existing schemes for water quality assessment. Both spatial and temporal comparisons are possible. The assessments may also be used to evaluate management performance where avoidance measures were necessary and assist in preventing further unwanted introductions. Such assessments made for the same areas over time provide opportunities for measuring change in biopollution. We have tested the method using four different well-studied areas within the Baltic Sea (brackish to freshwater environments) for two different times, 20 years apart. Further developments of the scheme may be needed to cover some specific cases and taxonomic groups according to their life history.     

Characterizing instability of aeolian environments using analytical reasoning

This short communication describes the development and application of analytical reasoning to quantify instability of an aeolian environment using scale‐dependent information coupled with conceptual knowledge of process and feedback mechanisms. Specifically, a simple Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) for aeolian landscape instability was developed that represents conceptual knowledge of key biophysical processes and feedbacks. Model inputs include satellite‐derived surface biophysical and geomorphometric parameters. FCMs are a knowledge‐based artificial intelligence (AI) technique that merges fuzzy logic and neural computing in which knowledge or concepts are structured as a web of relationships that is similar to both human reasoning and the human decision‐making process. Given simple process–form relationships, the analytical reasoning model is able to map the influence of land management practices and the geomorphology of the inherited surface on aeolian instability within the South Texas Sand Sheet. Results suggest that FCMs can be used to formalize process–form relationships and information integration analogous to human cognition with future iterations accounting for the spatial interactions and temporal lags across the sand sheets. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Who, when, and how? Marine planning stakeholder involvement preferences--a case study of the Solent, United Kingdom

The introduction of a marine planning system throughout English territorial waters over the next decade provides an opportunity for stakeholder input to the management of the marine environment. Stakeholder involvement has been identified as an important component of successful development and subsequent implementation of marine planning but it has to be recognised that the views and interest of stakeholders can vary greatly, thus the desire for involvement with the process is unlikely to be uniform. This paper presents the views of stakeholders within the Solent, United Kingdom on their potential involvement with the marine planning process. Interestingly, it highlights a strong variability of views within and across sectors. Assuming the situation in the Solent is typical of groups of stakeholders throughout the country, the lack of uniformity in the potential involvement from different stakeholders may present a challenge in achieving a representative and truly collaborative marine planning process.     

Emergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: A new evidence-based approach

Disasters from explosive volcanic eruptions are infrequent and experience in emergency planning and mitigation for such events remains limited. The need for urgently developing more robust methods for risk assessment and decision making in volcanic crises has become increasingly apparent as world populations continue to expand in areas of active explosive volcanism. Nowhere is this more challenging than at Vesuvius, Italy, with hundreds of thousands of people living on the flanks of one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. We describe how a new paradigm, evidence-based volcanology, has been applied in EXPLORIS to contribute to crisis planning and management for when the volcano enters its next state of unrest, as well as in long-term land-use planning. The analytical approach we adopted enumerates and quantifies all the processes and effects of the eruptive hazards of the volcano known to influence risk, a scientific challenge that combines field data on the vulnerability of the built environment and humans in past volcanic disasters with theoretical research on the state of the volcano, and including evidence from the field on previous eruptions as well as numerical simulation modelling of eruptive processes. Formal probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty and a decision analysis approach have provided the basis for the development of an event tree for a future range of eruption types with probability paths and hypothetical casualty outcomes for risk assessment. The most likely future eruption scenarios for emergency planning were derived from the event tree and elaborated upon from the geological and historical record. Modelling the impacts in these scenarios and quantifying the consequences for the circumvesuvian area provide realistic assessments for disaster planning and for showing the potential risk–benefit of mitigation measures, the main one being timely evacuation, but include for consideration protecting buildings against dilute, low dynamic pressure surges, and temporary roof supports in the most vulnerable buildings, as well as hardening infrastructure and lifelines. This innovative work suggests that risk-based methods could have an important role in crisis management at cities on volcanoes and small volcanic islands.