The Interpretation of Gravity Changes and Crustal Deformation in Active Volcanic Areas

Simple models, like the well-known point source of dilation (Mogis source) in an elastic, homogeneous and isotropic half-space, are widely used to interpret geodetic and gravity data in active volcanic areas. This approach appears at odds with the real geology of volcanic regions, since the crust is not a homogeneous medium and magma chambers are not spheres. In this paper, we evaluate several more realistic source models that take into account the influence of self-gravitation effects, vertical discontinuities in the Earths density and elastic parameters, and non-spherical source geometries. Our results indicate that self-gravitation effects are second order over the distance and time scales normally associated with volcano monitoring. For an elastic model appropriate to Long Valley caldera, we find only minor differences between modeling the 1982–1999 caldera unrest using a point source in elastic, homogeneous half-spaces, or in elasto-gravitational, layered half-spaces. A simple experiment of matching deformation and gravity data from an ellipsoidal source using a spherical source shows that the standard approach of fitting a center of dilation to gravity and uplift data only, excluding the horizontal displacements, may yield estimates of the source parameters that are not reliable. The spherical source successfully fits the uplift and gravity changes, overestimating the depth and density of the intrusion, but is not able to fit the radial displacements.     

Ground deformations in collapsed caldera structures

A method is presented to analyze the effect of stress-strain discontinuities on the ground deformations generated by a pressure source. This is meant to simulate the effects due to caldera structures, likely to present fractured zones at the borders of the collapsed area. A method originally developed by Crouch (1976) to solve plane-strain problems has been used to simulate deformation curves for several source and discontinuity geometries. The main result is that the location of the discontinuities controls the extension of the deformed zone, and always reduces it with respect to a continuous medium. With respect to a homogeneous medium the presence of lateral discontinuities also acts towards lowering the overpressure required to produce a given amount of deformation. These results indicate that, when analyzing ground deformations in calderas, the use of classical methods involving continuous media should be avoided, or at least taken with caution. These methods, in fact, assume that the extension of the deformed zone is only linked to the source depth.Some examples of ground deformations in active calderas have been analyzed in the framework of the results obtained from theoretical modeling. Four calderas recently affected by ground deformations have been considered: Rabaul (New Guinea), Campi Flegrei (Italy), Long Valley and Yellowstone (U.S.A.). The effects of collapsed structures on the deformation field are possibly evidenced for all the four calderas. At Rabaul and Campi Flegrei, the fracture systems mainly affecting the ground deformations probably represent younger, innermost collapses and are well evidenced by seismicity studies. Ground deformations are here concentrated in an area much smaller than the one enclosed by geologically visible caldera rims. In particular, at Rabaul, the effect of the innermost collapse can explain the high concentration of the uplift in the period 1971–1985, previously modeled by a very shallow source (1–3 km) in terms of overpressure in the main magma chamber, probably located at 4–5 km of depth.     

Simultaneous inversion of deformation and gravity changes in a horizontally layered half-space: Evidences for magma intrusion during the 1982–1984 unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

A very large uplift (about 1.8 m) occurred in the period 1982–1984 at Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy, without culminating in an eruption. A still-standing controversy accompanies the interpretation of deformation and gravity changes recorded during the unrest, which were interpreted to result from the sub-surface magmatic reservoir by some authors and from the hydrothermal system or hybrid sources by others. Here for the first time we take into account crustal layering while inverting leveling, EDM, and gravity data using uniformly-pressurized sources, namely small vertical spheroids and finite horizontal penny-shaped sources. The weight of EDM data in the misfit function is chosen from a trade-off curve in order to balance the compromise between fitting the leveling and the EDM data well. Models using a homogeneous medium cannot give a good simultaneous fit to leveling and EDM deformation data of the 1982–1984 unrest, whereas incorporating a layered structure (determined from seismically derived estimates of the P wave speed for the crust, and not adjusted to improve the fit in any of the inversions) allows a significantly better fit. Also, layering affects the sub-surface mass redistribution effects on gravity changes, and we show that the retrieved intrusion density is in full agreement with densities for highly evolved magmas expected at the Campi Flegrei caldera for depths of 3 to 4 km, ruling out hydrothermal fluids as the primary cause of the 1982–1984 unrest. The source of the 1982–1984 CF unrest was probably a shallow (about 3-km deep) penny-shaped magma intrusion fed by a deeper magma chamber; source overpressure was few MPa.     

Modelling gravity variations consistent with ground deformation in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

In recent years (1970–72 and 1982–84) two inflation episodes took place in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), characterized by significant ground uplift and gravity variations. An elastic half-space model with vertical density stratification is employed to compute the displacement field and the gravity variations produced by the deformation of buried layers, following the inflation of a spherically symmetric deformation source. Contributions to gravity variations are produced by dilation/contraction of the medium, by the displacements of density interfaces (the free surface and subsurface layers) and of source boundaries and, possibly, by new mass input from remote distances into the source volume. Three cases were examined in detail: In case I, the magma chamber is identified as the deformation source and volume and pressure increase in the magma chamber is due to input of new magma from remote distances; in case II deformation is due to magma differentiation within the magma chamber (deformation source with constant mass); in case III the geothermal system is identified as the deformation source and a pressure increase, possibly driven by the exsolution of high temperature and high pressure volatiles in the magma chamber, is assumed to play a dominant role. From the comparison between measured and computed gravity residuals (free-air-corrected gravity variations) we can assess that, in case I, an inflation source with constant density would predict gravity residuals compatible with observations, whereas an expansion at constant mass (case II) would predict gravity residuals much lower than observed. The resolving power of gravity data however prevents accurate assessment of the density of the emplaced material. In case III, the pervasive density increase of the geothermal fluids induced by pressure increase is assumed to be the main source of gravity variations. The average porosity value required for this model to match both the ground deformation and the gravity residuals is found to be ˜10%, a value which is compatible with measured porosity values at Campi Flegrei in deep wells. The subsidence phases following both inflation episodes and the gravity residuals during subsidence lead us to consider case III as more plausible, even if a suitable combination of cases I and III cannot be discarded.     

Net gravity decrease at Askja volcano,Iceland: constraints on processes responsible for continuous caldera deflation, 1988–2003

Askja caldera in northeast Iceland has been in a state of unrest for decades. Ground-deformation surveys show that the rate of deformation, i.e., deflation, is much higher then observed at any other dormant volcano in Iceland. This work presents the results from microgravity and deformation studies at Askja from 1988 to 2003. The deflation reaches a maximum of −0.46 m in the centre of the caldera, relative to a station outside the caldera, during the study period. The source of deformation is inferred to be at ∼3 km depth and a recent study infers a second deeper source at ∼16 km depth. The deflation is consistent with a subsurface volume change of −0.018 km³. We find a net microgravity decrease of 115 μGal in the centre of the caldera relative to the same station. This corresponds to a subsurface mass decrease of 1.6×10¹¹ kg between 1988 and 2003 based on the use of a point source model. A combination of magma drainage and cooling and contraction of the shallow magma reservoir at 3 km depth is our favoured model, consistent with the integrated observations. We suggest that extensional tectonic forces generate space in the ductile part of the crust to accommodate ongoing magma drainage from the shallow magma chamber.     

Unrest episodes at Campi Flegrei: A reconstruction of vertical ground movements during 1905–2009

Geodetic observations at Campi Flegrei caldera were initiated in 1905. Historical observations and the few measurements made before 1970 suggested a deflationary trend. Since 1969, the ground started to inflate during two major uplift episodes in 1969–72 and 1982–1985. We collected and reanalyzed all available punctual observations of vertical ground displacement taken in the period 1905–2009 with special attention to the period before 1969, to reconstruct in greater detail the deformation history of the caldera. We make use of the many photographs of the sea level in a roman ruin (the Serapeum Market) taken during the period between 1905 and 1969 to infer with more accuracy its relative height with respect to the sea level. We identify a previously disregarded major episode of ground uplift occurred between 1950 and 1952 with a maximum uplift of about 73 cm. This finding suggests that Campi Flegrei is currently experiencing a prolonged period of unrest longer than previously thought. The higher seismicity associated with the later episodes of unrest suggests that the volcano has approached an instability threshold, which may eventually result in a volcanic eruption.     

A mechanical fluid-dynamical model for ground movements at Campi Flegrei caldera

We present here a consistent model, which explains the mechanisms of unrest phenomena at Campi Flegrei (Italy), both at short-term (years) and at secular scales. The model consists basically of two effects: the first one is related to the elastic response of the shallow crust to increasing pressure within a shallow magma chamber; the second involves the fluid-dynamics of shallow aquifers in response to increasing pressure and/or temperature at depth. The most important roles in the proposed model are played by the effect of lateral stress–strain discontinuities marking the inner caldera borders and by the response of the geothermal system to the increase of pressure and/or temperature coming from the magma chamber. The model takes into account most results of recent research, and it is able to explain in a unitary way most of geophysical observations recently collected at Campi Flegrei. Some new results, presented in this paper, explain the mechanism of generation of seismicity in terms of Coulomb stress changes, and the difference between secular and short-term deformations, in terms of the non linear effect of the bordering discontinuities. The coupled effects of magma chamber stresses with the dynamics of shallow fluids provide results for a semi-quantitative interpretation of observed ground deformation, seismicity and of their time evolution. The model has very important implications for the hazard assessment during unrest phenomena. It represents, for the part involving the fluid-dynamical response, the ideal continuation of the basic, fundamental models and intuitions of Oliveri del Castillo and coworkers (Oliveri del Castillo, A., Quagliariello, M.T., 1969. Sulla genesi del bradisimo flegro. Atti Associazione Geofisica Italiana, 18th Congress, Napoli, pp. 557–594; Casterano, L., Oliveri del Castillo, A., Quagliariello, M.T., 1976. Hydromdynamics and geodynamics in the Phlegraean Fields area of Italy. Nature, 264, 161–154).     

Formation and development of normal-fault calderas and the initiation of large explosive eruptions

The ring fractures that form most collapse calderas are steeply inward-dipping shear fractures, i.e., normal faults. At the surface of the volcano within which the caldera fault forms, the tensile and shear stresses that generate the normal-fault caldera must peak at a certain radial distance from the surface point above the center of the source magma chamber of the volcano. Numerical results indicate that normal-fault calderas may initiate as a result of doming of an area containing a shallow sill-like magma chamber, provided that the area of doming is much larger than the cross-sectional area of the chamber and that the internal excess pressure in the chamber is smaller than that responsible for doming. This model is supported by the observation that many caldera collapses are preceded by a long period of doming over an area much larger than that of the subsequently formed caldera. When the caldera fault does not slip, eruptions from calderas are normally small. Nearly all large explosive eruptions, however, are associated with slip on caldera faults. During dip slip on, and doming of, a normal-fault caldera, the vertical stress on part of the underlying chamber suddenly decreases. This may lead to explosive bubble growth in this part of the magma chamber, provided its magma is gas rich. This bubble growth can generate an excess fluid pressure that is sufficiently high to drive a large fraction of the magma out of the chamber during an explosive eruption. Received: 2 January 1997 / Accepted: 22 April 1998     

Seismic and ground deformation crises at Rabaul Caldera: Prelude to an eruption?

A dramatic short-term increase in seismicity and ground deformation took place at Rabaul Caldera on 19 September 1983, and marked the start of a period of frequent episodes of high seismic energy release and concurrent rapid ground deformation. Together with increased background levels of seismicity and ground deformation, these phenomena are interpreted as indications of higher rates of magma injection at shallow depths within the caldera, which greatly increases the likelihod of an eruption at Rabaul in the near future. A modest volume of magma, about 100 million m³, could be available for eruption from two shallow reservoirs, but a somewhat deeper and much larger magma body — residual from the latest major eruption about 1400 yr BP — may also exist beneath the caldera.     

采用有限元等效体力方法数值分析火山区岩浆压力变形源——以长白山火山为例

火山区岩浆压力变形源的反演计算采用解析方法存在难以考虑地形的限制,采用传统有限元方法则存在网格依赖和计算量大的问题,反演过程中每一次正演由于岩浆房位置和大小变化都需要重新生成一次网格,耗费巨大的计算量和网格生成时间.为了克服上述问题,首次在长白山火山区使用"有限元等效体力"方法考虑地形影响反演地下岩浆压力变形源,计算岩浆应力扰动对周边断层稳定性的影响.在火山区地下压力变形源引起的地表形变计算中,地表地形影响不可忽略.埋深越浅,地表最大径向位移u_r所在的位置越靠近岩浆囊中心.当坡度达到30°时,最大垂向位移u_z所在位置不再位于岩浆囊正上方.椭球状岩浆囊压力源可以较好地模拟长白山火山地区2002—2003年间的GPS和水准测量.岩浆房扰动应力场和区域构造应力场的叠加有可能造成天池西部近EW向,天池北部以NW-NNW向为主的现今应力方向.岩浆房压力源引起的库仑应力变化有利于天池火山口NW向震群在空间上主要分布于火山口的西南和东北部.     

Eruptive versus non-eruptive behaviour of large calderas: the example of Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy)

Caldera eruptions are among the most hazardous of natural phenomena. Many calderas around the world are active and are characterised by recurrent uplift and subsidence periods due to the dynamics of their magma reservoirs. These periods of unrest are, in some cases, accompanied by eruptions. At Campi Flegrei caldera (CFc), which is an area characterised by very high volcanic risk, the recurrence of this behaviour has stimulated the study of the rock rheology around the magma chamber, in order to estimate the likelihood of an eruption. This study considers different scenarios of shallow crustal behaviour, taking into account the earlier models of CFc ground deformation and caldera eruptions, and including recent geophysical investigations of the area. A semi-quantitative evaluation of the different factors that lead to magma storage or to its eruption (such as magma chamber size, wall-rock viscosity, temperature, and regional tectonic strain rate) is reported here for elastic and viscoelastic conditions. Considering the large magmatic sources of the CFc ignimbrite eruptions (400–2,000 km³) and a wall-rock viscosity between 10¹⁸ and 10²⁰ Pa s, the conditions for eruptive failure are difficult to attain. Smaller source dimensions (a few cubic kilometres) promote the condition for fracture (eruption) rather than for the flow of wall rock. We also analyse the influence of the regional extensional stress regime on magma storage and eruptions, and the thermal stress as a possible source of caldera uplift. The present study also emphasises the difficulty of distinguishing eruption and non-eruption scenarios at CFc, since an unambiguous model that accounts for the rock rheology, magma-source dimensions and locations and regional stress field influences is still lacking.     

长白山天池火山2002~2005年火山扰动机制研究

地震、形变、火山气体地球化学等观测结果表明2002~2005年长白山天池火山经历了1次扰动事件。长白山站地震台（CBS台）记录到了扰动事件前后连续稳定的宽频带地震观测资料。前人的观测研究结果认为长白山天池火山扰动期间的火山地震类型主要为构造型火山地震，伴随少量的谐频型地震。本文通过匹配滤波技术，对1999~2007年扰动事件前后CBS台单台三分量地震观测数据进行模板扫描，获得3763个清晰的火山地震事件，其中谐频（HS）事件125个，构造（VT）事件3618个，并发现长周期（LP）事件20个。进而将火山扰动期间火山地震事件分为3种类型：构造型事件、长周期事件和谐频型事件，并提出2002~2005年长白山天池火山扰动机制模型：深源地震-火山能量传递模型，即汪清深源地震能量释放和传递，引发长白山火山区岩石圈应力状态波动。地幔岩浆房受应力干扰后，岩浆通道打开，少量岩浆侵入地壳岩浆房。岩浆混合脱气导致地壳岩浆房升压，引起顶部岩石微破裂，产生构造型火山地震，气体和流体填充这些裂隙，从而产生LP和HS型火山地震事件。     

Multiple volcano deformation sources in a post-rifting period: 1989–2005 behaviour of Krafla,Iceland constrained by levelling,tilt and GPS observations

The Krafla rifting episode, which occurred in North Iceland in 1975–1984, was followed by inflation of a shallow magma chamber until 1989. At that time, gradual subsidence began above the magma chamber and has continued to the present at a declining rate. Pressure decrease in a shallow magma chamber is not the only source of deformation at Krafla, as other deformation processes are driven by exploitation of two geothermal fields, together with plate spreading. In addition, deep-seated magma accumulation appears to take place, with its centre ∼ 10 km north of the Krafla caldera. The relative strength of these sources has varied with time. New results from a levelling survey and GPS measurements in 2005 allow an updated view on the deformation field. Deformation rates spanning 2000–2005 are the lowest recorded in the 30-year history of geodetic studies at the volcano. The inferred rate of 2000–2005 subsidence related to processes in the shallow magma chamber is less than 0.3 cm/yr whereas it was ∼ 5 cm/yr in 1989–1992. Currently, the highest rate of subsidence takes place in the Leirbotnar area, within the Krafla caldera, and appears to be a result of geothermal exploitation.     

Array analyses of volcanic earthquakes and tremor recorded at Las Cañadas caldera (Tenerife Island, Spain) during the 2004 seismic activation of Teide volcano

We analyze data from three seismic antennas deployed in Las Cañadas caldera (Tenerife) during May–July 2004. The period selected for the analysis (May 12–31, 2004) constitutes one of the most active seismic episodes reported in the area, except for the precursory seismicity accompanying historical eruptions. Most seismic signals recorded by the antennas were volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes. They usually exhibited low magnitudes, although some of them were large enough to be felt at nearby villages. A few long-period (LP) events, generally associated with the presence of volcanic fluids in the medium, were also detected. Furthermore, we detected the appearance of a continuous tremor that started on May 18 and lasted for several weeks, at least until the end of the recording period. It is the first time that volcanic tremor has been reported at Teide volcano. This tremor was a small-amplitude, narrow-band signal with central frequency in the range 1–6 Hz. It was detected at the three antennas located in Las Cañadas caldera. We applied the zero-lag cross-correlation (ZLCC) method to estimate the propagation parameters (back-azimuth and apparent slowness) of the recorded signals. For VT earthquakes, we also determined the S–P times and source locations. Our results indicate that at the beginning of the analyzed period most earthquakes clustered in a deep volume below the northwest flank of Teide volcano. The similarity of the propagation parameters obtained for LP events and these early VT earthquakes suggests that LP events might also originate within the source volume of the VT cluster. During the last two weeks of May, VT earthquakes were generally shallower, and spread all over Las Cañadas caldera. Finally, the analysis of the tremor wavefield points to the presence of multiple, low-energy sources acting simultaneously. We propose a model to explain the pattern of seismicity observed at Teide volcano. The process started in early April with a deep magma injection under the northwest flank of Teide volcano, related to a basaltic magma chamber inferred by geological and geophysical studies. The stress changes associated with the injection produced the deep VT cluster. In turn, the occurrence of earthquakes permitted an enhanced supply of fresh magmatic gases toward the surface. This gas flow induced the generation of LP events. The gases permeated the volcanic edifice, producing lubrication of pre-existing fractures and thus favoring the occurrence of VT earthquakes. On May 18, the flow front reached the shallow aquifer located under Las Cañadas caldera. The induced instability constituted the driving mechanism of the observed tremor.     

Structural deformation and sedimentation in an active Caldera, Rabaul, Papua New Guinea

Recent seismic and tectonic activity in Rabaul Caldera, Papua New Guinea, suggests that magma is accumulating at a shallow depth beneath this partially submerged structure and that a new volcano may be developing. Changes in onshore elevation since 1971 (as much as 2 m on south Matupit Island) indicate that rapid and large-scale uplifts have occurred on the seafloor near the center of the caldera. The frequency of seismic events within the caldera has also increased during this period. Earthquake locations define an elliptical ring surrounding the center of this uplift within the caldera.A marine geophysical survey in 1982 by the U.S. Geological Survey's R/V “S.P. Lee” in Rabaul Caldera shows the development of a bulge in the seafloor near the center of the caldera. High-resolution seismic reflection profiles show that this bulge consists of two domal uplifts bounded and separated by two major north-south-trending fault zones. Deformed sediments overlie these zones; a prominent slump flanks the area of the bulge.Five major acoustic units were identified in the seismic reflection profiles: an acoustic basement and four sedimentary units consisting of irregularly layered, cross-layered, contorted, and well-layered sequences. The acoustic basement is probably composed of crystalline volcanic rocks, and the layered acoustic units are probably sediments, primarily ash deposited in different environments. The cross-layered, irregularly layered, and contorted units appear to have been deposited in a dynamic environment subjected to strong currents, seismicity, and/or mass wasting, while the well-layered units were deposited in a low-energy environment. Locally, well-layered sequences interfinger with the other sedimentary units, indicating a transitional environment that alternated between high-energy and low-energy depositional processes.A submarine channel cuts most of the acoustic units and appears to be the conduit for sediment transport out of the caldera; it occupies an older buried channel north of the caldera that is presently being exhumed. In the south, active erosion of well-layered sediments is taking place. What are believed to be several young volcanic cones also disrupt the depositional layers.We conclude that the bulge in the seafloor and the associated fault zones are a result of emplacement of magma at a shallow depth. Contorted sediment and slumps adjacent to the bulge are probably the result of uplift and seismic activity. The pattern of seismicity appears to reflect increased magma pressure at depth beneath the caldera floor. This activity may eventually lead to an eruption.     

Genesis of dacitic magmatism at batur volcano, Bali, Indonesia: Implications for the origins of stratovolcano calderas

Batur is an active stratovolcano on the island of Bali, Indonesia, with a large, well-formed caldera whose formation is correlated with the eruption about 23,700 years ago of a thick ignimbrite sheet. Our study of the volcanic stratigraphy and geochemistry of Batur shows the formation of the caldera was signalled by a change in the composition of the erupting material from basaltic and andesitic to dacitic. The dacitic rocks are glassy, possess equilibrium phenocryst assemblages, and display compositional characteristics consistent with an origin by crystal-liquid fractionation from more mafic parent magmas in a shallow chamber, possibly at 1.5 km depth and 1000–1070°C.However, although separated by a gap of 6 wt.% SiO₂, the dacitic rocks are clearly related in their minor- and trace-element geochemistry to those basalts and basaltic andesites erupted after the caldera was formed rather than to the andesites erupted immediately before the dacites first appeared. We infer from this and published experimental modelling of the possible crystallization behaviour of basaltic magma chambers that a magmatic cycle involving caldera formation began independently of the previous activity of Batur by formation of a new, closed-system magma chamber beneath the volcano. Fractional crystallization, possibly at the walls of the chamber, led to the early production of derivative siliceous magmas and, consequently, to caldera formation, while most of the magma retained its original composition. The postcaldera Batur basalts represent the largely undifferentiated core liquids of this chamber.This model contrasts with the traditional evolutionary model for stratovolcano calderas but may be applicable to the origins of calderas similar to that of Batur, particularly those in volcanic island arcs.     

S-wave shadows in the Krafla Caldera in NE-Iceland,evidence for a magma chamber in the crust

During the present tectonic activity in the volcanic rift zone in NE-Iceland it has become apparent that the attenuation of seismic waves is highly variable in the central region of the Krafla volcano. Earthquakes associated with the inflation of the volcano have been used to delineate two regions of high attenuation of S-waves within the caldera. These areas are located near the center of inflation have horizontal dimensions of 1–2 km and are interpreted as the expression of a magma chamber. The top of the chamber is constrained by hypocentral locations and ray paths to be at about 3 km depth. Small pockets of magma may exist at shallower levels. The bottom of the chamber is not well constrained, but appears to be above 7 km depth. Generally S-waves propagate without any anomalous aftenuation through laver 3 (v_p=0.5 km sec^?1) across the volcanic rift zone in NE-Iceland. The rift zone therefore does not appear to be underlain by an estensive magma chamber at crustal levels. The Krafla magma chamber is a localized feature of the Krafla central volcano.     

Mechanisms of crustal uplift and subsidence at the Yellowstone caldera,Wyoming

Leveling surveys in 1923, 1976, and each year from 1983 to 1993 have shown that the east-central part of the Yellowstone caldera, near the base of the Sour Creek resurgent dome, rose at an average rate of 14±1 mm/year from 1923 to 1976 and 22±1 mm/year from 1976 to 1984. In contrast, no detectable movement occurred in the same area from 1984 to 1985 (-2±5 mm/year), and from 1985 to 1993 the area subsided at an average rate of 19±1 mm/year. We conclude that uplift from 1923 to 1984 was caused by: (1) pressurization of the deep hydrothermal system by fluids released from a crystallizing body of rhyolite magma beneath the caldera, then trapped beneath a self-sealed zone near the base of the hydrothermal system; and (2) aseismic intrusions of magma into the lower part of the sub-caldera magma body. Subsidence since 1985 is attributed to: (1) depressurization and fluid loss from the deep hydrothermal system, and (2) sagging of the caldera floor in response to regional crustal extension. Future intrusions might trigger renewed eruptive activity at Yellowstone, but most intrusions at large silicic calderas seem to be accommodated without eruptions. Overpressurization of the deep hydrothermal system could conceivably result in a phreatic or phreatomagmatic eruption, but this hazard is mitigated by episodic rupturing of the self-sealed zone during shallow earthquake swarms. Historical ground movements, although rapid by most geologic standards, seem to be typical of inter-eruption periods at large, mature, silicic magma systems like Yellowstone. The greatest short-term hazards posed by continuing unrest in the Yellowstone region are: (1) moderate to large earthquakes (magnitude 5.5–7.5), with a recurrence interval of a few decdes; and (2) small hydrothermal explosions, most of which affect only a small area (<0.01 km²), with a recurrence interval of a few years.     

Geodetic data shed light on ongoing caldera subsidence at Askja, Iceland

Subsidence within the main caldera of Askja volcano in the North of Iceland has been in progress since 1983. Here, we present new ground- and satellite-based deformation data, which we interpret together with new and existing micro-gravity data, to help understand which processes may be responsible for the unrest. From 2003 to 2007, we observe a net micro-gravity decrease combined with subsidence and from 2007 to 2009 we observe a net micro-gravity increase while the subsidence continues. We infer subsidence is caused by a combination of a cooling and contracting magma chamber at a divergent plate boundary. Mass movements at active volcanoes can be caused by several processes, including water table/lake level movements, hydrothermal activity and magma movements. We suggest that, here, magma movement and/or a steam cap in the geothermal system of Askja at depth are responsible for the observed micro-gravity variations. In this respect, we rule out the possibility of a shallow intrusion as an explanation for the observed micro-gravity increase but suggest magma may have flowed into the residing shallow magma chamber at Askja despite continued subsidence. In particular, variable compressibility of magma residing in the magma chamber as well as compressibility of the surrounding rock may be the reason why this additional magma did not create any detectable surface deformation.     

Signs of potential renewal of eruptive activity at La Fossa (Vulcano,Aeolian Islands)

Since the end of the last magmatic eruption (1890), activity of La Fossa (southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy) has consisted of fumarolic emissions of fluctuating intensity. Fluids are discharged principally at two fumarolic fields located in the northern rim of the active crater and at the beach sited at its northern foot. Increased thermal, seismic and geochemical activity has been recorded since 1978, when an earthquake of M=5.5 occurred in the region. This paper combines available geophysical and geochemical information in order to develop a tentative interpretation of two episodes of apparent unrest which occurred in 1985 and 1987–1988, enhancing the risk of renewal of the eruptive activity. The 1985 unrest consisted essentially of a sharp build up of the internal pressure in the shallow hydrothermal system, which was induced by the injection of hot gases of magmatic origin. The crater fumaroles displayed significant increases in CO₂ and other acid species, but their outlet temperature did not change. Conversely, the 1987–1988 episode was characterized by appreciable modifications at the crater fumaroles, with only secondary effects at the fumarole system of the beach. The sliding of part of the eastern flank of the La Fossa cone into the sea occurred on 20 April 1988, when the region was affected by crustal dilatation producing a seismic sequence of relatively high intensity. Both episodes of unrest were accompanied by increases of local microseismic activity, which affected the nothern sector of the island in 1985, and the southern one in 1988. Finally, a phase of appreciable areal contraction was detected in 1990, probably due to the effect of the cooling and crystallization of magma at relatively shallow depths, accompanying the increased thermal activity at the crater fumaroles. Regional tectonic stress seems to play an important role in the transition of the volcanic system from a phase of relative stability to a phase of apparent unrest, inducing the heating and the expansion of shallow hydrothermal fluids. Available information is insufficient to indicate whether or not the volcano is building towards the renewal of a magmatic eruption, and there is no evidence to hypothesize episodes of significant magma migration. The frequency of measurements of many parameters needs to be increased in order to learn more about the temporal relationships between geochemical and geophysical variations preceding and accompanying periods of increased thermal activity. This will probably be a valid tool for recognizing short-term precursors of a future eruption, reducing the risk of false alarms.