Flood/drought change of last millennium in the Yangtze Delta and its possible connections with Tibetan climatic changes

Flood/drought series during the past 1000 yrs in the Yangtze Delta, China, was reconstructed based on historical documents and local chronologies. Continuous wavelet transform was applied to detect the periodicity and variability of the flood/drought series. Research results indicate that: (1) Larger fluctuations of climatic changes in the Tibetan Plateau result in higher wavelet variance of flood/drought in the Yangtze Delta, for example, during 1400–1700, the proxy indicators indicate that the annual temperature in Tibet experienced larger variability and that this time interval exactly corresponds to the time when the higher and significant wavelet variance occurred; (2) Periods featured by colder temperature in the Tibetan Plateau usually correspond to periods characterized by higher wetness with higher probability of flood events; (3) Variability of heating features of the Tibetan Plateau exerted great influences on intensity and onset of Indian monsoon and south Asian summer monsoon, and these atmospheric activities are in direct connection with precipitation in Eastern China. Current global warming may alter the snow mass of Tibetan Plateau and then alters the heating features of Tibetan Plateau, which may in turn impact flood/drought conditions in the Yangtze Delta.     

A late Quaternary lake record from the Qilian Mountains (NW China): evolution of the primary production and the water depth reconstructed from macrofossil, pollen, biomarker, and isotope data

The history (45–0 ka BP) of the aquatic vegetation composition of the shallow alpine Lake Luanhaizi from the NE Tibetan Plateau is inferred from aquatic plant macrofossil frequencies and aquatic pollen and algae concentrations in the sediments. C/N (range: 0.3–100), δ¹³C (range: −28 to −15‰), and n-alkane measurements yielded further information on the quantitative composition of sedimentary organic matter. The inferred primary production of the former lake ecosystem has been examined in respect of the alternative stable state theory of shallow lakes [Scheffer, M., 1989. Alternative stable states in eutrophic, shallow freshwater systems: a minimal model. Hydrobiological Bulletin 23, 73–83]. Switches between clear and turbid water conditions are explained by a colder climate and forest decline in the catchment area of Lake Luanhaizi. The macrofossil-based reconstruction of past water depth and salinity ranges, as well as other organic matter (OM) proxies allowed climatic inferences of the summer monsoon intensity during the late Quaternary. Around 45 ka BP, conditions similar to or even moister than present-day climate occurred. The Lake Luanhaizi record is further evidence against an extensive glaciation of the Tibetan Plateau and its bordering mountain ranges during the Last Glacial Maximum. Highest lake levels and consequently a strong summer monsoon are recorded for the early Holocene period, while gradually decreasing lake levels are reconstructed for the middle and late Holocene.     

Temperature changes on the Tibetan Plateau during the past 600 years inferred from ice cores and tree rings

The climatological signal of δ¹⁸O variations preserved in ice cores recovered from Puruogangri ice field in the central Tibetan Plateau (TP) was calibrated with regional meteorological data for the past 50 years. For the period AD 1860–2000, 5-yearly averaged ice core δ¹⁸O and a summer temperature reconstruction derived from pollen data from the same ice core were compared. The statistical results provide compelling evidence that Puruogangri ice core δ¹⁸O variations represent summer temperature changes for the central TP, and hence regional temperature history during the past 600 years was revealed. A comparison of Puruogangri ice core δ¹⁸О with several other temperature reconstructions shows that broad-scale climate anomalies since the Little Ice Age occurred synchronously across the eastern and southern TP, and the Himalayas. Common cold periods were identified in the 15th century, 1625–1645 AD, 1660–1700 AD, 1725–1775 AD, 1795–1830 AD, 1850–1870 AD, 1890–1920 AD, 1940–1950 AD, and 1975–1985 AD. The period 1725–1775 AD was one of the most prolonged cool periods during the past 400 years and corresponded to maximum Little Ice Age glacier advance of monsoonal temperate glaciers of the TP.     

Elevation dependency of recent and future minimum surface air temperature trends in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings

Elevation dependency of climate change signals has been found over major mountain ranges such as the European Alps and the Rockies, as well as over the Tibetan Plateau. In this study we examined the temporal trends in monthly mean minimum temperatures from 116 weather stations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity during 1961–2006. We also analyzed projected climate changes in the entire Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings from two sets of modeling experiments under future global warming conditions. These analyses included the output of the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) with approximately 150 km horizontal resolution for the scenario of annual 1% increase in atmospheric CO₂ for future 100 years and physically-based downscaling results from the NCAR CAM3/CLM3 model at 10' × 10' resolution during three 20-year mean periods (1980–1999, 2030–2049 and 2080–2099) for the IPCC mid-range emission (A1B) scenario. We divided the 116 weather stations and the regional model grids into elevation zones of 500 m interval to examine the relationship of climatic warming and elevation. With these corroborating datasets, we were able to confirm the elevation dependency in monthly mean minimum temperature in and around the Tibetan Plateau. The warming is more prominent at higher elevations than at lower elevations, especially during winter and spring seasons, and such a tendency may continue in future climate change scenarios. The elevation dependency is most likely caused by the combined effects of cloud-radiation and snow-albedo feedbacks among various influencing factors.     

Simulations of water resource environmental changes in China during the last 20 000 years by a regional climate model

We utilize a regional climate model with detailed land surface processes (RegCM2) to simulate East Asian monsoon climates at 0 ka, 6 ka and 21 ka BP, and evaluate the changes in hydrology process, including vapor transportation, precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff in the eastern and western China during these periods. Results indicate that the Tibetan Plateau climate presents a wet–cold status during the LGM while it exhibits a wet–warm climate at 6 ka BP. The LGM wetter climate over the Tibetan Plateau mainly results from the increased vapor inflow through its south boundary, while the increase in the vapor import over the Tibetan Plateau at 6 ka BP mostly sources from its west boundary. The increase in the LGM runoff over the Tibetan Plateau is mainly caused by the decrease in evapotranspiration, while the increase in runoff at the 6 ka BP mainly by the enhanced precipitation. Eastern China (including southern China) presents a dry status during the LGM, which precipitation and runoff decreases significantly due largely to weakened Asian summer monsoon that results in the decreased vapor inflow through the south boundary of eastern China. The variation pattern in the hydrological cycle in eastern China is contrary to that in western China during the LGM. The increase in precipitation and runoff at 6 ka BP in eastern China is tightly related to the strong Asian summer monsoon that leads to increased vapor import through the south boundary. Long term decrease trend in precipitation and runoff in northern China since the last 20 000 years may be attributed to the steady increase in vapor export through the east boundary as a result of the changes of East Asian monsoon and the adjustments of local atmospheric circulations in this area.     

Changes in the lower limit of mountain permafrost between 1973 and 2004 in the Khumbu Himal, the Nepal Himalayas

Because the Khumbu Himal of the Nepal Himalayas lacks long-term climate records from weather stations, mountain permafrost degradation serves as an important indicator of climate warming. In 1973, the permafrost lower limit was estimated to be 5200–5300 m above sea level (ASL) on southern-aspect slopes in this region. Using ground-temperature measurements, we examined the mountain permafrost lower limit on slopes with the same aspect in 2004. The results indicate that the permafrost lower limit was 5400–5500 m ASL in 2004. The permafrost lower limit was estimated to be 5400 to 5500 m on slopes with a southern aspect in the Khumbu Himal in 1991 using seismic reflection soundings. Thus, it is possible that the permafrost lower limit has risen 100–300 m between 1973 and 1991, followed by a stable limit of 5400 to 5500 m over the last decade. An increase in mean annual air temperature of approximately 0.2 to 0.4 °C from the 1970s to the 1990s has indicated a rise in the permafrost lower limit of 40 to 80 m at the Tibetan Plateau. The rise in the mountain permafrost lower limit in the Khumbu Himal exceeds that of the Tibetan Plateau, suggesting the possibility of greater climate warming in the Khumbu Himal.     

On the nature of the ice cap on the Tibetan Plateau during the late Quaternary

Considerable debate persists among scientists interested in the nature of the ice cap on the Tibetan Plateau during the late Quaternary. We examine the implications, on this problem, of the high resolution data that has recently become available from the Dunde ice cap in north Tibet. The observed −2% change in the δ¹⁸O of the ice formed at the Dunde ice cap during the Last Glacial Stage (LGS) suggests a limit in the range of 5–7°C on the reduction in annual surface air temperature over Tibet during the LGS. This then translates to an Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) lowering of 700–1200 m. Due to this lowering, ELA could have reached below the level of the surface of the plateau resulting in an extensive ice sheet formation during LGS.     

Climate extremes in Loess of China coupled with the strength of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic

The loess-paleosol sequences of the last 1.2 Ma in China have recorded two kinds of climate extremes: the strongly developed S4, S5-1 and S5-3 soils (corresponding to the marine δ¹⁸O stages 11, 13, and 15, respectively) as evidence of three episodes of great warmth and two coarse-grained loess units (L9 and L15, corresponding to the marine δ¹⁸O stages 22, 23, 24 and 38, respectively) which indicate severest glacial conditions. The climatic and geographical significance of these events are still unclear, and their cause remains a puzzle.Paleopedological, geochemical and magnetic susceptibility data from three loess sections (Xifeng, Changwu and Weinan) suggest that the S4, S5-1 and S5-3 soils were formed under sub-tropical semi-humid climates with a tentatively estimated mean annual temperature (MAT) of at least 4–6°C higher and a mean annual precipitation (MAP) of 200–300 mm higher than for the present-day, indicating a much strengthened summer monsoon. The annual rainfall was particularly accentuated for the southern-most part of the Loess Plateau, suggesting that the monsoon rain belt (the contact of the monsoonal northward warm-humid air mass with the dry-cold southward one) might have stood at the southern part of the Plateau for a relatively long period each year. The loess units L9 and L15 were deposited under semi-desertic environments with a tentatively estimated MAT and MAP of only about 1.5–3°C and 150–250 mm, indicating a much strengthened winter monsoon, and that the summer monsoon front could rarely penetrate into the Loess Plateau region.Correlation with marine carbon isotope records suggests that these climate extremes have large regional, even global, significance rather than being local phenomena in China. They match the periods with greatest/smallest Atlantic–Pacific δ¹³C gradients, respectively, indicating their relationships with the strength of Deep Water (NADW) production in the North Atlantic. These results suggest that the monsoon climate in the Loess Plateau region was significantly linked with the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation on timescales of 10⁴ years.     

Numerical modelling of permafrost in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia during the Holocene

The occurrence of permafrost in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia and its dependence on past and presently ongoing climatic variations was investigated with one- (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) numerical models by solving the transient heat conduction equation with latent heat effects included. The study area is characterized by discontinuous permafrost occurrences such as palsa mires and local mountain permafrost. The ground temperature changes during the Holocene were constructed using climatic proxy data. This variation was used as a forcing function at the ground surface in the calculations. Several versions of the present ground temperature were applied, resulting in different subsurface freezing–thawing conditions in the past depending on the assumed porosity and geothermal conditions.Our results suggest that in high altitude areas with a cold climate (present mean annual ground temperature between 0°C and −3°C), there may have been considerable variations in permafrost thickness (ranging from 0 to 150 m), as well as periods of no permafrost at all. The higher is the porosity of bedrock filled with ice, the stronger is the retarding effect of permafrost against climatic variations.Two-dimensional models including topographic effects with altitude-dependent ground temperatures and slope orientation and inclination dependent solar radiation were applied to a case of mountain permafrost in Ylläs, western Finnish Lapland, where bedrock permafrost is known to occur in boreholes to a depth of about 60 m. Modelling suggests complicated changes in permafrost thickness with time as well as contrasting situations on southern and northern slopes of the mountain.Extrapolating the climatic warming of the last 200 years to the end of the next century when the anticipated increase in the annual average air temperature is expected to be about 2 K indicates that the permafrost occurrences in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia would be thawing rapidly in low-porosity formations. However, already a porosity of 5% filled with ice would retard the thawing considerably.     

Validation of a multidecadal RCM hindcast over East Asia

The precipitation and low-level air temperature in East Asia from a regional climate model (RCM) hindcast for the 22-year period 1979–2000 is evaluated against observational data in preparation for the model use in regional climate change research. Emphasis of the evaluation is placed on the RCM capability in capturing the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation and low-level temperature, especially in conjunction with important climatological events such as, ENSO and East Asian monsoon, at three spatial scales of continental, subcontinental, and river basins.Spatial anomaly correlation time series of geopotential height and temperature show that the simulated upper-air fields remain consistent with the driving large-scale fields, NCEP Reanalysis 2 (R2), throughout the period. The simulated seasonal shifts in 850 hPa winds also agree well with R2 over eastern China and the western Pacific Ocean although the magnitudes of the shifts are overestimated, especially over the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau and in northern Manchuria. The simulated precipitation climatology agrees reasonably with that from two analysis datasets based on station- and remote-sensing data. Outstanding characteristics of precipitation including the location of the main rainband, climatological means, and the spatiotemporal variability in association with East Asian Monsoon, ENSO, and extreme events, are well represented in the hindcast. The most notable bias in the simulated precipitation is an overestimation of winter rainfall in southwestern coast of China, near the border with Vietnam. The simulation overestimates the interannual variability of seasonal precipitation especially in southern China, however, the corresponding coefficients of variation agree reasonably with observations except in very dry regions. This suggests that climate sensitivity of scaled precipitation can be useful for projecting climate change signals. The simulated low-level temperature climatology agrees reasonably with observational data as well. The most noticeable biases in the simulated low-level temperature are the warm (cold) biases in southern Siberia (northeastern China) during winter (summer) and the systematic underestimation of low-level temperature in the Tibetan Plateau for all seasons. The daily maximum temperature is underestimated for all seasons by 2−3 K with the largest biases in spring and fall except in the northwestern Mongolia region where it has been overestimated during winter. The daily minimum temperature biases ranges from 0.3 K in spring to 2 K in winter, and are much smaller than those in daily maximum temperature. The evaluation of the multidecadal hindcast shows that model errors mostly confined in the region near the lateral boundaries of the model domain with only minor biases in eastern China. This allows us to be cautiously optimistic about the RCM usefulness for studies of precipitation and low-level temperature changes in East Asia induced by increased emissions of greenhouse gases.     

Ground temperature histories in eastern and central Canada from geothermal measurements: evidence of climatic change

Inverse and direct methods have been used to analyze a large number of borehole temperature logs in order to infer past climatic changes. Results indicate a warming of 1–2°C in eastern and central Canada during the past 150 years. A period of cooling between 500 and 200 years before present, corresponding to the time of the “Little Ice Age”, has also been identified in the same areas. A regional ground temperature history is estimated for eastern and central Canada from the simultaneous inversion of several temperature logs. The inferred temperature changes appear correlated with the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide as reported from a Greenland ice core, and agree with existing meteorological and dendrochronological records for the area.     

Comparison of Mediterranean sea level fields for the period 1961–2000 as given by a data reconstruction and a 3D model

Two Mediterranean sea level distributions spanning the last decades are examined. The first one is a reconstruction of sea level obtained by a reduced-space optimal interpolation applied to tide gauge and altimetry data. The second distribution is obtained from a 3D (baroclinic) regional circulation model. None of the two representations includes the mechanical atmospheric forcing. Results are presented for two different periods: 1993–2000 (for which altimetry data are available) and 1961–2000 (the longest period common to both distributions).The first period is examined as a test period for the model, since the reconstruction is very similar to altimetry observations. The modelled sea level is in fair agreement with the reconstruction in the Western Mediterranean and in the Aegean Sea (except in the early nineties), but in the Ionian Sea the model departs from observations. For the whole period 1961–2000 the main feature is a marked positive trend in the Ionian Sea (up to 1.8 mm yr^− 1), observed both in the reconstruction and in the model. Also the distribution of positive trends in the Western Mediterranean (mean value of 1.1 mm yr^− 1) and the smaller trends in the Aegean Sea (0.5 mm yr^− 1) are similar in the reconstruction and in the model, despite the first implicitly accounts for sea level variations due to remote sources such as ice melting and the second does not. The interannual sea level variability associated with key regional events such as the Eastern Mediterranean Transient is apparently captured by the reconstruction but not by the model (at least in its present configuration). Hence, the reconstruction can be envisaged as a useful tool to validate further long-term numerical simulations in the region.     

Climate change of the last millennium inferred from borehole temperatures: regional patterns of climatic changes in the Czech Republic — Part III

Accurate temperature–depth profiles may help to assess the temperature variations associated with the climate changes in the past. Ninety-eight ground surface temperature histories inverted from the temperature–depth borehole logs drilled on the territory of the Czech Republic [Bodri, L., ermák, V., 1995. Climate changes of the last millennium inferred from borehole temperatures: results from the Czech Republic — Part I. Global Planet. Change 11, pp. 111–125; Bodri, L., ermák, V., 1997. Climate changes of the last two millennia inferred from borehole temperatures: results from the Czech Republic — Part II. Global Planet. Change 14, pp. 163–173.] are used to reconstruct the regional patterns of the respective climate change. The climate was mapped for the following periods: 1100–1300 A.D. (Little Climatic Optimum), 1400–1500 A.D., 1600–1700 A.D. (main phase of the Little Ice Age), and for the most recent climate trend after year 1960. Comparison of the obtained maps with the meteorological observations and proxy climatic reconstructions confirmed good applicability of the “geothermal” paleoclimatic reconstructions for the regional studies.     

Reconstruction of Mediterranean sea level fields for the period 1945–2000

The distribution of sea level in the Mediterranean Sea is recovered for the period 1945–2000 by using a reduced space optimal interpolation analysis. The method involves estimating empirical orthogonal functions from satellite altimeter data spanning the period 1993–2005 that are then combined with tide gauge data to recover sea level fields over the period 1945–2000. The reconstruction technique is discussed and its robustness is checked through different tests. For the altimetric period (1993–2000) the prediction skill is quantified over the whole domain by comparing the reconstructed fields with satellite altimeter observations. For past times the skill can only be tested locally, by validating the reconstruction against independent tide gauge records. The reconstructed distribution of sea level trends for the period 1945–2000 shows a positive peak in the Ionian Sea (up to 1.5 mm yr^− 1) and a negative peak of − 0.5 mm yr^− 1 in a small area to the south-east of Crete. Positive trends are found nearly everywhere, being larger in the western Mediterranean (between 0.5 and 1 mm yr^− 1) than in the eastern Mediterranean (between 0 and 0.5 mm yr^− 1). The estimated rate of mean sea level rise for the period 1945–2000 is 0.7 ± 0.2 mm yr^− 1, i.e. about a half of the rate estimated for global mean sea level. These overall results do not appear to be very sensitive to the distribution of tide gauges. The poorest results are obtained in open-sea regions with intense mesoscale variability not correlated with any tide gauge station, such as the Algerian Basin.     

Cryospheric change in China

This paper provides an overview of the current status of the cryosphere in China and its changes. Up-to-date statistics of the cryosphere in China are summarized based on the latest available data. There are 46,377 glaciers in China, covering an area of 59,425 km². The glacier ice reserve is estimated to be about 5600 km³ and the annual glacier runoff is about 61.6 × 10⁹ m³. The continuous snow cover extent (> 60 days) in China is about 3.4 × 10⁶ km² and the maximum water equivalent is 95.9 × 10⁹ m³ yr^− 1. The permafrost area in China is about 1.72 × 10⁶ km². The total ground ice reserve on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau is estimated to be about 10,923 km³. Recent investigations indicated that glacier areas in China have shrunk about 2–10% over the past 45 yr. Total glacier area has receded by about 5.5%. Snow mass has increased slightly. Permafrost is clearly degrading, as indicated by shrinking areas of permafrost, increasing depth of the active layer, rising of lower limit of permafrost, and thinning of the seasonal frost depth. Some models predict that glacier area shrinkage could be as high as 26.7% in 2050, with glacier runoff increasing until its maximum in about 2030. Although snow mass shows an increasing trend in western China, in eastern China the trend is toward decreasing snow mass, with increasing interannual fluctuations. Permafrost degradation is likely to continue, with one-third to one-half of the permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau anticipated to degrade by 2100. Most of the high-temperature permafrost will disappear by then. The permafrost in northeastern China will retreat further northward.     

Agricultural irrigation demand under present and future climate scenarios in China

The anticipated change of climatic conditions within the next decades is thought to have far reaching consequences for agricultural cropping systems. The success of crop production in China, the world's most populous country, will also have effects on the global food supply. More than 30% of the cropping area in China is irrigated producing the major part of the agricultural production. To model the effects of climate change on irrigation requirements for crop production in China a high-resolution (0.25°, monthly time series for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) gridded climate data set that specifically allows for the effects of topography on climate was integrated with digital soil data in a GIS. Observed long-term trends of monthly means as well as trends of interannual variations were combined for climate scenarios for the year 2030 with average conditions as well as ‘best case’ and ‘worst case’ scenarios.Regional cropping calendars with allowance for multiple cropping systems and the adaptation of the begin and length of the growing season to climatic variations were incorporated in the FAO water balance model to calculate irrigation amounts to obtain maximum yields for the period 1951–1990 and the climate scenarios.During the period 1951–1990 irrigation demand displayed a considerable variation both in temporal and spatial respects. Future scenarios indicate a varied pattern of generally increasing irrigation demand and an enlargement of the subtropical cropping zone rather than a general northward drift of all zones as predicted by GCM models. The effects of interannual variability appear to have likely more impact on future cropping conditions than the anticipated poleward migration of cropping zones.     

Reconstruction of past decades sea level using thermosteric sea level, tide gauge, satellite altimetry and ocean reanalysis data

This study investigates past sea level reconstruction (over 1950–2003) based on tide gauge records and EOF spatial patterns from different 2-D fields. In a first step, we test the influence on the reconstructed signal of the 2-D fields temporal coverage. For that purpose we use global grids of thermosteric sea level data, available over 1950–2003. Different time spans (in the range 10–50 yr) for the EOF spatial patterns, and different geographical distributions for the 1-D thermosteric sea level time series (interpolated at specific locations from the 2-D grids), are successively used to reconstruct the 54-year long thermosteric sea level signal. In each case we compare the reconstructed trend map with the reference. The simulation indicates that the longer the time span covered by the spatial EOFs, the closer to the reference the reconstructed thermosteric sea level trends. In a second step, we apply the method to reconstructing 2-D sea level data over 1950–2003, combining sparse tide gauge records available since 1950, with EOF spatial patterns from different sources: (1) thermosteric sea level grids over 1955–2003, (2) sea level grids from Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry over 1993–2003, and (3) dynamic height grids from the SODA reanalysis over 1958–2001. The reconstructed global mean sea level trend based on thermosteric EOFs (case 1) is significantly lower than the observed trend, while the interannual/decadal sea level fluctuations are well reproduced. Case 2 (Topex/Poseidon EOFs over 1993–2003) leads to a global mean sea level trend over the 54-year time interval very close to the observed trend. But the spatial trends of the reconstruction over 1950–2003 are significantly different from those obtained with thermosteric EOFs. Case 3 (SODA EOFs over 1958–2001) provides a reconstruction trend map over 1950–2003 that differs significantly from the previous two cases. We discuss possible causes for such differences. For the three cases, on the other hand, reconstructed spatial trends over 1993–2003 agree well with the regional sea level trends observed by Topex/Poseidon.     

Glacier change in Garibaldi Provincial Park, southern Coast Mountains, British Columbia, since the Little Ice Age

Fluctuations of glaciers during the 20th century in Garibaldi Provincial Park, in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia, were reconstructed from historical documents, aerial photographs, and fieldwork. Over 505 km², or 26%, of the park, was covered by glacier ice at the beginning of the 18th century. Ice cover decreased to 297 km² by 1987–1988 and to 245 km² (49% of the early 18th century value) by 2005. Glacier recession was greatest between the 1920s and 1950s, with typical frontal retreat rates of 30 m/a. Many glaciers advanced between the 1960s and 1970s, but all glaciers retreated over the last 20 years. Times of glacier recession coincide with warm and relatively dry periods, whereas advances occurred during relatively cold periods. Rapid recession between 1925 and 1946, and since 1977, coincided with the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), whereas glaciers advanced during its negative phase (1890–1924 and 1947–1976). The record of 20th century glacier fluctuations in Garibaldi Park is similar to that in southern Europe, South America, and New Zealand, suggesting a common, global climatic cause. We conclude that global temperature change in the 20th century explains much of the behaviour of glaciers in Garibaldi Park and elsewhere.     

Continental climate in the East Siberian Arctic during the last interglacial: Implications from palaeobotanical records

To evaluate the consequences of possible future climate changes and to identify the main climate drivers in high latitudes, the vegetation and climate in the East Siberian Arctic during the last interglacial are reconstructed and compared with Holocene conditions. Plant macrofossils from permafrost deposits on Bol'shoy Lyakhovsky Island, New Siberian Archipelago, in the Russian Arctic revealed the existence of a shrubland dominated by Duschekia fruticosa, Betula nana and Ledum palustre and interspersed with lakes and grasslands during the last interglacial. The reconstructed vegetation differs fundamentally from the high arctic tundra that exists in this region today, but resembles an open variant of subarctic shrub tundra as occurring near the tree line about 350 km southwest of the study site. Such difference in the plant cover implies that, during the last interglacial, the mean summer temperature was considerably higher, the growing season was longer, and soils outside the range of thermokarst depressions were drier than today. Our pollen-based climatic reconstruction suggests a mean temperature of the warmest month (MTWA) range of 9–14.5 °C during the warmest interval of the last interglacial. The reconstruction from plant macrofossils, representing more local environments, reached MTWA values above 12.5 °C in contrast to today's 2.8 °C. We explain this contrast in summer temperature and soil moisture with a combination of summer insolation higher than present and climatic continentality in arctic Yakutia stronger than present as result of a considerably less inundated Laptev Shelf during the last interglacial.     

Cyclic Changes in Solar Rotation Inferred From Temporal Changes in the Mean Magnetic Field

Time–frequency variability of the solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) was studied, based on a continuous wavelet analysis. The rotational modulation of the SMMF dominates the wavelet spectrum at 27–30 and 13.5-day time scales. The rotational variation, in turn, is amplitude-modulated by the quasi-biennial periodicity in the SMMF. This is caused by magnetic field eruptions. Rigidly rotating modes appear in the time–longitude distribution of the large-scale magnetic field that is plotted from a deconvolution of the SMMF time series with a Carrington period. These rotational modes coexist and transform into one another over an 11-yr cycle. The modes with periods of 27.8–28.0 days dominate the phase of activity rise, whereas the 27-day rotational mode dominates the declining phase of the 11-yr cycle. The rotational modes with periods of 29–30 days occurred episodically. Most of the features in the time–longitude distribution of the SMMF are identifiable with those in similar diagrams of the solar background magnetic fields. They represent a combined effect of the background magnetic fields from both hemispheres. Eruptions of magnetic fields lead to dramatic changes in the picture of solar rotation and correlate well with the polarity asymmetry in the SMMF signal. The polarity asymmetry in the SMMF time series exhibits both long-term changes and a 22-yr cyclic behaviour, depending on the reversals of the global magnetic field in cycles 20–23.