近30年北半球冬季臭氧总量分布特征及其与平流层温度的关系

臭氧的时空分布特征对气候和环境变化具有显著影响,随着臭氧资料数量的增加和质量的提高,有必要对臭氧时空分布特征及其与气候变化的关系进行详细研究.本文利用欧洲中期天气预报中心提供的1979—2013年的全球月平均臭氧总量资料、平流层温度场资料,采用旋转经验正交函数分解(REOF)、Morlet小波分析、合成分析等方法研究了20°N以北的北半球冬季(12—2月)臭氧总量异常的主要空间分布结构与时间演变特征,并进一步分析了主要模态与平流层上层(2 hPa)、中层(30 hPa)以及下层(100 hPa)温度异常的关系.结果表明:近30年北半球冬季臭氧总量异常变化最显著的区域主要有5个,分别位于极地地区(75°N—90°N,0°—360°)、北半球副热带地区(20°N—40°N,0°—360°)、阿拉斯加地区(60°N—75°N,180°—260°E)、北大西洋地区(45°N—60°N,310°E—360°E)及西伯利亚地区(50°N—65°N,80°E—130°E).5个区域的冬季臭氧总量异常具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征.1980年代后期是各个区域的臭氧总量异常由年代际偏多转为偏少的转换时段.此外,各区域存在显著的年际变化周期,而且各个区域的年际周期存在明显的差异.臭氧总量异常变化与平流层温度异常变化的关系表明,臭氧总量异常的增加(减少)能够导致平流层上层温度异常偏冷(暖)和平流层中、下层温度异常偏暖(冷),其中平流层中层温度异常的偏暖(冷)程度要比下层更加明显.     

全球变暖背景下春季Hadley环流与东亚夏季风环流年际对应关系的多模式预估

观测事实揭示,春季Hadley环流在年际时间尺度上与东亚夏季风环流和降水具有密切联系.在未来全球变暖背景下,春季Hadley环流与东亚夏季风环流和降水的这种年际关系是否会发生变化？针对该问题,本文在评估的基础上选取五个气候模式,分析了A1B排放情景下春季北半球Hadley环流年际变率的未来变化及其与东亚夏季风环流和降水的年际关系.多模式集合(MME)预估结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,与20世纪末期(1970—1999年)相比,到21世纪末期(2070—2099年),春季北半球Hadley环流的年际变率强度将减弱,减弱幅度达32%.随着春季Hadley环流年际变率的减弱,其与夏季西太平洋副热带高压和东亚夏季风强度的联系将变弱.MME模拟结果还显示,春季Hadley环流与夏季东亚西风急流和降水的关系也降低,但各单个模式间存在较大差异.     

Two interannual variability modes of the Northwestern Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone in boreal summer

Using the reanalysis data and 20th century simulation of coupled model FGOALS_gl developed by LASG/IAP, we identified two distinct interannual modes of Northwestern Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone (NWPAC) by performing Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis on 850 hPa wind field over the northwestern Pacific in summer. Based on the associated anomalous equatorial zonal wind, these two modes are termed as "Equatorial Easterly related Mode" (EEM) and "Equatorial Westerly related Mode" (EWM), respectively. The formation mechanisms of these two modes are similar, whereas the maintenance mechanisms, dominant periods, and the relationships with ENSO are different. The EEM is associated with El Ni o decaying phase, with the anomalous anticyclone established in the preceding winter and persisted into summer through local positive air-sea feedback. By enhancing equatorial upwelling of subsurface cold water, EEM favors the transition of ENSO from El Ni o to La Ni a. The EWM is accompanied by the El Ni o events with long persistence, with the anomalous anticyclone formed in spring and strengthened in summer due to the warm Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SSTA) forcing from the equatorial central-eastern Pacific. The model well reproduces the spatial patterns of these two modes, but fails to simulate the percentage variance accounted for by the two modes. In the NCEP reanalysis (model result), EEM (EWM) appears as the firstmode, which accounts for 35.6% (68.2%) of the total variance.     

近60年全球大气环流经向模态的气候变化

本文根据1948～2004年NCEP/NCAR 1000 hPa、500 hPa、100 hPa高度场逐月再分析资料,分析了近60年全球大气环流经向模态的气候变化. 结果表明：近60年来第一模态从低层到高层都表现出高纬与低纬地区之间明显的反向变化关系,且随时间有明显的增强趋势. 第一模态位相发生了相反的改变,低纬地区由负距平演变为正距平,高纬地区由正距平演变为负距平. 1000 hPa和500 hPa高度场上的南半球比北半球变化激烈,而100 hPa高度场上的北半球比南半球变化激烈. 第二模态在1000 hPa高度场上,主要表现为南极涛动（AAO）和北极涛动(AO),且两涛动在年际、年代际尺度上表现出明显的负相关关系;在100 hPa高度场上,主要表现为南北半球高纬度地区之间的反向变化;500 hPa高度场是1000 hPa和100 hPa的一个过渡层次,主要表现出明显的南极涛动(AAO). 第二模态可能是南北半球中高纬环流相互作用的桥梁.     

On the solar/QBO effect on the interannual variability of total ozone and the stratospheric circulation over Northern Europe

Based on total ozone data from the World Ozone Data Center and stratospheric geopotential height data from the Meteorological Institute of Berlin Free University for the months of January through March for the time period of 1958–1996, the influence of the 11-year solar cycle and the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on total ozone and the stratospheric circulation at 30 hPa over Northern Europe is investigated. The analysis is performed for different levels of solar activity. The relationship of the equatorial QBO with ozone and the stratospheric circulation over the study region exhibits unique features attributed to strong opposite connections between the equatorial zonal wind and ozone/stratospheric dynamics during periods of solar minimum and maximum. Using the Solar/QBO effect, a statistical extraction of the interannual variations of total ozone and stratospheric circulation over Northern Europe has been attempted. The variations extracted and observed for late winter show very good correspondence. The solar/QBO effect in total ozone and stratospheric dynamics over Northern Europe appears to be related to planetary wave activity.     

中国降水年际和年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感性

利用中国740站45年降水资料按5种分辨率分气候区计算了降水年际和年代际变率. 降水年际和年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感性分析表明,中国各气候区降水年际变率对空间尺度的敏感性都随空间尺度的增加而逐渐减小,且存在明显的季节变化,而年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感性却随空间尺度的增加而增大,但不存在季节变化;由于中国各气候区降水的特殊性,各气候区降水年际和年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感程度存在不可忽视的差异.在年际和年代际尺度上,西南地区降水变率对空间尺度都是最敏感的,因而该区域降水年际和年代际变率信号的检测最困难.而华南地区在年际尺度上比较敏感,年代际尺度却不敏感,但华南地区在年际和年代际尺度上区域内降水分布的非均匀程度对空间尺度的敏感性都最大.     

欧亚地区夏季大气环流年际变化的关键区及亚洲夏季风的关联信号

本文利用资料分析和数值模拟方法研究了欧亚地区夏季大气环流的相关性及其与亚洲夏季风的关联信号,以期为欧亚地区的气候变异及可预测性研究提供科学依据.结果表明:欧亚区域同期(JJA)500 hPa高度场年际变化的关键区包括热带区、中纬度的贝加尔湖和巴尔喀什湖之间以及欧洲地中海附近地区;表面气温的关键区主要位于热带海洋;海平面气压的关键区包括热带的海洋性大陆区域、印度洋和非洲大陆赤道附近部分区域、中高纬的贝加尔湖与巴尔喀什湖之间的地区.另外,夏季大气环流年际变化的春季关键区明显西移/南退,特别是表面气温(其西太平洋区不再是关键区).公用气候系统模式CCSM4.0的大气模式在给定海温年际变化的情况下对于上述大气环流相关场及其关键区的模拟基本合理,其中500 hPa高度场的模拟结果较好,海平面气压场的结果逊之;对于同期和前期的结果,模式都有夸大西太平洋海温影响的倾向.对于东亚夏季风指数与大气环流的同期年际变化信号而言,其空间分布基本表现为以30°N为界呈西南东北向的波列状分布;其春季前期信号中,30°N以南的显著区几乎都位于海洋,30°N以北主要位于欧洲、巴尔喀什湖与贝加尔湖之间的地区.南亚夏季风指数的前期显著相关区比同期明显西移/南退.总之,模式的模拟结果和观测结果相当吻合,但其同期模拟结果比前期的更好一些.这些结果说明:模式对于大气环流年际变化的耦合变化信息的刻画是基本合理的,这为利用气候模式进行有关可预测性研究和降尺度预测研究奠定了基础.     

欧亚地区夏季大气环流年际变化的关键区及亚洲夏季风的关联信号

本文利用资料分析和数值模拟方法研究了欧亚地区夏季大气环流的相关性及其与亚洲夏季风的关联信号,以期为欧亚地区的气候变异及可预测性研究提供科学依据.结果表明:欧亚区域同期(JJA)500 hPa高度场年际变化的关键区包括热带区、中纬度的贝加尔湖和巴尔喀什湖之间以及欧洲地中海附近地区;表面气温的关键区主要位于热带海洋;海平面气压的关键区包括热带的海洋性大陆区域、印度洋和非洲大陆赤道附近部分区域、中高纬的贝加尔湖与巴尔喀什湖之间的地区.另外,夏季大气环流年际变化的春季关键区明显西移/南退,特别是表面气温(其西太平洋区不再是关键区).公用气候系统模式CCSM4.0的大气模式在给定海温年际变化的情况下对于上述大气环流相关场及其关键区的模拟基本合理,其中500 hPa高度场的模拟结果较好,海平面气压场的结果逊之;对于同期和前期的结果,模式都有夸大西太平洋海温影响的倾向.对于东亚夏季风指数与大气环流的同期年际变化信号而言,其空间分布基本表现为以30°N为界呈西南东北向的波列状分布;其春季前期信号中,30°N以南的显著区几乎都位于海洋,30°N以北主要位于欧洲、巴尔喀什湖与贝加尔湖之间的地区.南亚夏季风指数的前期显著相关区比同期明显西移/南退.总之,模式的模拟结果和观测结果相当吻合,但其同期模拟结果比前期的更好一些.这些结果说明:模式对于大气环流年际变化的耦合变化信息的刻画是基本合理的,这为利用气候模式进行有关可预测性研究和降尺度预测研究奠定了基础.     

Projected changes in mean and interannual variability of surface water over continental China

Five General Circulation Model(GCM) climate projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC) hydrologic model to investigate the impacts of climate change on hydrologic cycle over continental China in the 21 st century. The bias-corrected climatic variables were generated for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC AR5) by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project(ISIMIP). Results showed much larger fractional changes of annual mean Evapotranspiration(ET) per unit warming than the corresponding fractional changes of Precipitation(P) per unit warming across the country, especially for South China, which led to a notable decrease of surface water variability(P-E). Specifically, negative trends for annual mean runoff up to -0.33%/ year and soil moisture trends varying between -0.02% to -0.13%/year were found for most river basins across China. Coincidentally, interannual variability for both runoff and soil moisture exhibited significant positive trends for almost all river basins across China, implying an increase in extremes relative to the mean conditions. Noticeably, the largest positive trends for runoff variability and soil moisture variability, which were up to 0.41%/year and 0.90%/year, both occurred in Southwest China. In addition to the regional contrast, intra-seasonal variation was also large for the runoff mean and runoff variability changes, but small for the soil moisture mean and variability changes. Our results suggest that future climate change could further exacerbate existing water-related risks(e.g., floods and droughts) across China as indicated by the marked decrease of surface water amounts combined with a steady increase of interannual variability throughout the 21 st century. This study highlights the regional contrast and intra-seasonal variations for the projected hydrologic changes and could provide a multi-scale guidance for assessing effective adaptation strategies for China on a river basin, regional, or as a whole.     

Thermal and haline variability over the central Bering Sea shelf: Seasonal and interannual perspectives

We examine multi-year conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) data to better understand temperature and salinity variability over the central Bering Sea shelf. Particular consideration is given to observations made annually from 2002 to 2007 between August and October, although other seasons and years are also considered. Vertical and horizontal correlation maps show that near-surface and near-bottom salinity anomalies tend to fluctuate in phase across the central shelf, but that temperature anomalies are vertically coherent only in the weakly or unstratified inner-shelf waters. We formulate heat content (HC) and freshwater content (FWC) budgets based on the CTD observations, direct estimates of external fluxes (surface heat fluxes, ice melt, precipitation (P), evaporation (E) and river discharge), and indirect estimates of advective contributions. Ice melt, P−E, river discharge, and along-isobath advection are sufficient to account for the mean spring-to-fall increase in FWC, while summer surface heat fluxes are primarily responsible for the mean seasonal increase in HC, although interannual variability in the HC at the end of summer appears related to variability in the along-isobath advection during the summer months. On the other hand, FWC anomalies at the end of summer are significantly correlated with the mean wind direction and cross-isobath Ekman transport averaged over the previous winter. Consistent with the latter finding, salinities exhibit a weak but significant inverse correlation between the coastal and mid-shelf waters. The cross-shelf transport likely has significant effect on nutrient fluxes and other processes important to the functioning of the shelf ecosystem. Both the summer and winter advection fields appear to result from the seasonal mean position and strength of the Aleutian Low. We find that interannual thermal and haline variability over the central Bering Sea shelf are largely uncoupled.     

南极涛动异常及其对冬春季北半球大气环流影响的数值模拟试验

利用IAP9L-AGCM模式考察了模式中与南极涛动异常相关的海温敏感区,发现南半球高纬海温异常能够强迫出南极涛动异常,而赤道东太平洋海温异常与太平洋南美型密切相关.研究了南极涛动异常对冬春季北半球大气环流及亚洲北部气温的影响,结果表明,南极涛动加强,能够引起北半球高纬环流异常和欧亚西风加强,以及亚洲北部地表气温和850 hPa气温显著增温.数值模拟支持了已有的诊断结果,也证实了冬春季节南极涛动异常下两半球高纬间的经向遥相关存在.     

Correlations of mesospheric variability and their relation to the large-scale circulation during polar winter

WINDII data from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite show an integrated OH emission rate systematically increasing with decreasing airglow peak altitude. A Spectral Airglow Temperature Imager (SATI) at 74°N shows strong positive correlations between the integrated emission rate and the rotational OH temperature. Taken together, the two correlations are consistent with vertical motions of the mesopause region, over periods from hours to winter to winter. SABER data are consistent with these correlations. The O₂ atmospheric band shows much weaker correlations. The SATI mesospheric temperatures also correlate with Resolute Bay temperatures for the 22.5 km level, a mesosphere–stratosphere relationship.     

Teleconnections between the rainfall over Northeast Brazil and the winter circulation of Northern Hemisphere

Linear correlation coefficients are calculated between the geopotential heights for the winter months (December, January, and February) at 700 mb in the Northern Hemisphere and the March rainfall over Northeast Brazil. Isolines of correlation coefficients showed interesting patterns and regions of significantly high correlation. The occurrence of PNA pattern is interpreted as a connection between the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation and NE Brazil rainfall through El Niño—Southern oscillation phenomena. The negative center over North-West United States in the PNA pattern also has a direct relationship to the NE Brazil rainfall. Further studies are needed to substantiate and understand the teleconnections noted here.     

Multi-scale variability of the tropical Indian Ocean circulation system revealed by recent observations

The tropical Indian Ocean circulation system includes the equatorial and near-equatorial circulations, the marginal sea circulation, and eddies. The dynamic processes of these circulation systems show significant multi-scale variability associated with the Indian Monsoon and the Indian Ocean dipole. This paper summarizes the research progress over recent years on the tropical Indian Ocean circulation system based on the large-scale hydrological observations and numerical simulations by the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology(SCSIO), Chinese Academy of Sciences. Results show that:(1) the wind-driven Kelvin and Rossby waves and eastern boundary-reflected Rossby waves regulate the formation and evolution of the Equatorial Undercurrent and the Equatorial Intermediate Current;(2) the equatorial wind-driven dynamics are the main factor controlling the inter-annual variability of the thermocline in the eastern Indian Ocean upwelling;(3) the equatorial waves transport large amounts of energy into the Bay of Bengal in forms of coastal Kelvin and reflected free Rossby waves. Several unresolved issues within the tropical Indian Ocean are discussed:(i) the potential effects of the momentum balance and the basin resonance on the variability of the equatorial circulation system, and(ii) the potential contribution of wind-driven dynamics to the life cycle of the eastern Indian Ocean upwelling. This paper also briefly introduces the international Indian Ocean investigation project of the SCSIO, which will advance the study of the multi-scale variability of the tropical Indian Ocean circulation system, and provide a theoretical and data basis to support marine environmental security for the countries around the Maritime Silk Road.     

Interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation and its influence on East Asian climate during boreal winter and spring

1 Introduction Antarctic Oscillation is a major mode of Southern Hemispheric (SH) extratropical atmospheric circula- tion. The SH Annual Mode represents a zonally sym- metric exchange of mass between polarward of 60°S and 40°S[1], therefore AAO indicates both the intensity of circumpolar low and zonal mean west wind at mid-high latitudes in SH. Positive phase of AAO tends to deepen circumpolar low and enhance west wind at mid-high latitudes in SH. Many studies show that AAO has bar…     

大气变率对北极地区近期海冰变化趋势影响数值模拟研究

为研究近期21年(1989—2009年)北极地区海冰变化原因,本文利用欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA-Interim数据集资料和美国麻省理工学院MITgcm全球海冰-海洋耦合模式开展了不同大气强迫条件下海冰变化的数值模拟研究.研究工作中共设计了6个数值试验,除1个试验全部采用1989—2009年每日4个时次的大气强迫场外,其余5个试验各有一种大气强迫(地表气温、地表大气比湿、向下短波辐射通量、向下长波辐射通量和地表风)采用1989年月平均结果.分析了各模拟试验结果中3月和9月北极地区海冰面积的年际变化特征及最小二乘拟合意义下的线性变化趋势,并以ERA-Interim结果为参照标准对各模拟试验结果进行了对比和检验,以说明不同大气强迫量变率对海冰变化的作用.结果表明:地表气温变率和向下长波辐射通量变率是造成海冰面积减少的主要原因;向下短波辐射通量变率对海冰面积变化影响几乎可以忽略;地表大气比湿变率对海冰面积线性变化趋势影响较小,但对海冰面积年际变化特征有调制作用;地表风变率对海冰季节变化、海冰面积线性变化趋势及年际变化特征均有明显影响,说明提高大气风应力精度是改善海冰数值模拟结果的重要手段.     

大气变率对北极地区近期海冰变化趋势影响数值模拟研究

为研究近期21年(1989—2009年)北极地区海冰变化原因,本文利用欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA-Interim数据集资料和美国麻省理工学院MITgcm全球海冰-海洋耦合模式开展了不同大气强迫条件下海冰变化的数值模拟研究.研究工作中共设计了6个数值试验,除1个试验全部采用1989—2009年每日4个时次的大气强迫场外,其余5个试验各有一种大气强迫(地表气温、地表大气比湿、向下短波辐射通量、向下长波辐射通量和地表风)采用1989年月平均结果.分析了各模拟试验结果中3月和9月北极地区海冰面积的年际变化特征及最小二乘拟合意义下的线性变化趋势,并以ERA-Interim结果为参照标准对各模拟试验结果进行了对比和检验,以说明不同大气强迫量变率对海冰变化的作用.结果表明:地表气温变率和向下长波辐射通量变率是造成海冰面积减少的主要原因;向下短波辐射通量变率对海冰面积变化影响几乎可以忽略;地表大气比湿变率对海冰面积线性变化趋势影响较小,但对海冰面积年际变化特征有调制作用;地表风变率对海冰季节变化、海冰面积线性变化趋势及年际变化特征均有明显影响,说明提高大气风应力精度是改善海冰数值模拟结果的重要手段.     

青藏高原蒸散年际变化及其对西风和季风环流的响应

在评估4种蒸散格点资料（GLDAS,GLEAM,MERRA-2,CRET）在青藏高原适用性的基础上,以精度最高的CRET（R²为0.83,RMSE为14.76 mm）及同期气象环境数据,在年际尺度上分析了青藏高原蒸散变化特征及其受大尺度西风和季风环流的影响.结果表明,青藏高原年平均蒸散为414.2±18.32 mm,具有明显的年际变率和变化趋势,且区域（西风区、季风区和过渡区）间差异明显.蒸散年际变化与西风和季风环流强弱的年际变化密切相关,且季风和西风对蒸散的影响存在显著的区域差异.西风和季风通过调节局地气候环境因子影响蒸散：土壤湿度、归一化植被指数（NDVI）和风速三个局地气候环境要素是青藏高原蒸散主要调控因子,蒸散与土壤湿度和NDVI呈显著正相关,与风速在高原西部呈显著负相关、在高原东部呈显著正相关;研究WYI（Webster-Yang Index）和WI（Westerly Index）与影响蒸散的主导气候环境因子的关系发现,WYI与土壤湿度和NDVI呈显著正相关,且WYI与NDVI的相关系数在高原中部和南部较大,使得WYI对蒸散影响在中部分过渡区和南部季风区较大,WI也与土壤湿度和NDVI呈显著正相关,但WI与NDVI的相关系数在中部和北部较大,WI对蒸散影响在中部过渡区和北部西风区较大,同时,WI与风速在大部分高原显著相关,WI在高原东部通过风速对蒸散变化具有正贡献,使得季风区东部蒸散年际变化也受WI影响,最终使得WI对蒸散的影响在除季风区西部以外的区域较大.该研究结果可加深认识青藏高原水循环变化及其机理,为区域水资源和生态系统管理提供科学依据.

     

近50年来内蒙古查干淖尔湖水量变化及其成因分析

内蒙古查干淖尔湖是位于季风边缘区干旱与半干旱过渡带的封闭湖泊,对气候变化响应极为敏感.利用1958-2010年的查干淖尔湖21期遥感影像以及湖泊流域1955-2010年的3个气象站点和1个水文站点的气温、降水、蒸发和径流等数据,分析查干淖尔湖近50余年的湖泊水量、面积/水位波动及其原因.结果表明,近50年来在区域气候暖干化的背景下,查干淖尔湖不断萎缩,流域生态环境退化.1958-2010年湖泊容积以2×106m3/a的速度锐减66.9%(从124.1×106m3降到41.1×106m3),湖泊面积缩小73.3%(从105.3 km2降到28.1 km2),平均缩减速度为1.8 km2/a;流域年均气温上升了2.5℃,年降水量下降了36.6 mm.湖泊水量与流域气温和蒸发量显著负相关.查干淖尔湖分为东西两部分,中间由天然堤坝相连,东湖在水闸的人为控制下水位波动范围不超过1 m.西湖水位波动则相对剧烈,湖面下降7.6 m,于2002年彻底干涸,湖盆裸露,已成为盐尘暴、沙尘暴源地.