第23太阳周黑子相对数的峰值、峰期以及结束期的预测

Two parameters,the smoothed sunspot numbers in the eleventh month during rising phase of the current cycle and the length month of the minimum period (R<14),are selected to predict the maximum-value of sunspot number of cycle 23 in this paper. The predicted maximum-values of smoothed sunspot number are 115<Ri<149 and 114<Ri<146 also predicted by statistical method. The peak-time will be from September,1999 to March,2000,and the end-time will be from August,2006 to April,2008.     

1982年6月12日耀斑的巴耳末线半宽特征

Usually,because of the Starkbroadening for the spectrum lines,the half widths of hydrogen higher Balmer emission lines of the solar flare increase with the principal quantum number N. Their variation curve,as observed before,has a minimum value near N=8 or 9. However,a curve for the solar flare which occurred at the limb of solar disk on June 12,1982shows an all-time decline with increasing N. How to explain this phenomena remains to be discussed.     

太阳活动22周低年质子事件的预报分析

In this paper,5 proton events and corresponding active regions in the descending phase of Solar Cycle 22(1993～1995) are analysed. The result shows that (1)The proton flares in 1993～1995 occurred mainly in the longitudy zone of 140～270 degree. (2)4 of 5 events (80%) studied have their small magnetic fluxes to disappear in their magnetic flux regions with a major polarity,one day before the event. (3)It is 60% of the event studied to show characteristic of the merging of 2 or greater than 2 magnetic fluxes with similar polarity in their active regions,one day before of the proton event. The results are possibly useful for the short-term prediction of proton events.     

第23周太阳活动峰年北京天文台太阳射电观测

An introduction to the instrumonts to be used for solar radio observations in Beijing in Solar Cycle 23 is made in this paper. They are 10cm solar radio telescope which has been used for a long time,and 1.0～2.0GHz,2.6～3.8GHz and 5.2～7.6GHz spectrometers. The former two spectrometers has passed a test,showing high guality,and the 5.2～7.6GHz one will be in operation from 1999. It is believed that highl gualified data should be obtained in the next solar cycle.     

太阳活动短期预报效果及预报评价的探讨

In the paper,the effects of short-term prediction techniques of solar activity of the World Warning Agency (W) and Beijing Astronomical Observatory in 1970s(B7) and 1990s(B9) were analyzed statistically by the standard of the effects of the persistance prediction technique(CH) in the same periods of time. A Q-index evaluating effects of prediction has been put forward;the index indicates the synthesis of positive effects of correct forecasts and negative effects of false forecasts. Against the persistence prediction (CH),the effects of WWA prediction (W),BAO prediction using 1970s' technique (B7) and 1990s' technique (B9) during the same periods of time as (CH) have been evaluated by the Q-index. Based on the above,we have advanced a concrete scientific way to improve the short-term prediction technique. Especially,we have raised that in order to improve prediction technique,the results of persistence prediction should become the basic component of short-term prediction of solar activity;namely,present prediction of forecasting the levels of solar activity should be transformed to forecast the coming change of solar activity levels with the aim of using the effects of persistence prediction fully.     

射电日像仪天线及工作频率的设想

The article analysizes the current situation and opportunity of the development of radioheliograph in China. It provides an idea to construct the radioheliograph by three stepsfrom small sized,to middle sized,then tobig sized. Each step is to construct a complete radioheliograph. The article also analysizes some important technical performance,such as diameter of element antenna,overall pointing error and observing frequency.     

对太阳活动区的自动监测、资料处理 及研究的一些新方法

In this paper we introduce the results of our investigations for some new methods of the automatic observation forecast、data processing and research,IncludingAutomatic forecast and capture of solar flare events;A method in drawing light curves of solar flares with high accuracy;A method for the automatic observation of solar active regions etc.     

空间天气学

Birth and new characteristics of 《Space Weather》 and its base—three kind of the global structure are briefly presented in this paper,respectively.     

人造双行星与地球组成的太阳和行星际观测网

A Solar and interplanetary observational system composed of two artificial planets and the earth is suggested for the solar-terrestrial study and prediction.The two planets should move along the earth's orbit around the sun. The angle distance between the two planets and between them with the earth is 120°. This system can be used to improve greatly the short-term,midiu-mterm solar activity predictions and monitor an earth-toward coronal mass ejection,giving an accurate warning of a solar-terrestrial disturbance. Observational data obtained by this system would be very useful in a model work of solar wind and an evolution study of structures in solar atmosphere such as solar active regions and magnetic fields with various scales.     

CME与米波射电爆发相关性研究

A correlation between the coronal mass ejection(CME) and the meter wavelength radio bursts is analyzed in this paper. It is found that type Ⅱ and type Ⅳ bursts have very good correlation with CME. Noise storms occur several tens minutes before the onset of the moving type Ⅳ bursts. A sudden stop of noise storms can be used as a sign to foresee the possibility of a following CME. The three kinds of the moving type Ⅳ also introduced in this present papersolated source type,the expanding-arc moving Ⅳ type and the advancing front type.     

第二十二太阳黑子周特征值预报

太阳活动对地球的影响是人们关心的重要研究课题。太阳黑子相对数作为描述太阳活动的一个参量,虽然不如射电流量密度等参量具有明确的物理意义,但是由于它有较长的观测历史以及在统计上可较好地反映太阳活动的变化,因此在较长期的太阳活动预报等工作中仍是个常用的参量,为有关部门所使用。 将上一个太阳周即第21周的种种预报极值与实际极值165.3比较,可知:一般说     

太阳黑子相对数最强周期的小波分析

利用小波变换,分析了1749年以来每个太阳活动周太阳黑子相对数的最强周期以及第1～22太阳活动周的最强周期. 分析结果表明,在第5和第6个太阳活动周,太阳黑子相对数最强的周期分别为64.67年和69.31年;在第13～15太阳活动周,太阳黑子相对数的最强周期分别为98.02年,105.06年和105.06年. 在第1～22太阳活动周中,太阳黑子相对数最强的周期是128个月,约10.67年,其他太阳活动周的最强周期介于9.29～11.43年之间. 本文最后给出了128个月周期的幅度随时间的变化.     

月平滑太阳黑子相对数的预报

建国以来,不少天文工作者在太阳活动长期预报、中期和短期预报方面作了大量工作,但是,太阳活动的一至几年的中长期预报却很少有人涉足。本文试图用门限自回归模型和二次曲线方法,探讨时间长度为一年的月平滑黑子相对数的预报。并给出两种方法的综合预报结果。     

Harmonic analysis and an empirical model for TEC over Palehua

An empirical model of total electron content (TEC) for a low-latitude station, Palehua, has been developed using harmonic analysis of TEC data measured at this station during the period 1980–1990; the TEC data were obtained from Faraday rotation measurements of linearly polarised signals transmitted by geostationary satellites. The analysis reveals that monthly mean values of the daily mean and the first four harmonics vary in phase with solar activity and exhibit annual, semi-annual variations and equinoctial asymmetries. A set of 81 coefficients of zero and the first four orders were determined which were found to be sufficient to model the TEC. The model strongly depends on the sunspot number. The harmonic components derived from the 81 coefficients are scaled by this property. The modelled monthly mean TEC values agree quantitatively with the measured data, the maximum deviation being limited to ±15%. The model reasonably reproduces the features observed in the diurnal, seasonal and solar cycle variations of the measured data. The annual variation of observed TEC exhibits opposite equinoctial asymmetries at solar minimum and solar maximum. Also, the mean and first four harmonics show a saturation/decreasing effect when the sunspot number exceeds about 170. The observed features are discussed qualitatively.     

Global Cloud Cover and the Earth’s Mean Surface Temperature

The well-known 11-year cycle in low cloud cover amount for Solar Cycle Number 22 and the trend with time for Solar Cycle Number 23 are interpreted as being due to similar changes, but of opposite phase, in the mean global surface temperature of the Earth. An analysis of cloud amounts in two higher altitude bands shows that they, and the surface temperature, are roughly in phase with each other. The suggested mechanism to explain this result is that a warming of the Earth’s surface causes low clouds to rise and to be reclassified in the next upper category. The energetics of the process are shown to be satisfactory for this to be the correct explanation.     

Long Term Time Variability of Cosmic Rays and Possible Relevance to the Development of Life on Earth

The well-known 11-year cycle in low cloud cover amount for Solar Cycle Number 22 and the trend with time for Solar Cycle Number 23 are interpreted as being due to similar changes, but of opposite phase, in the mean global surface temperature of the Earth. An analysis of cloud amounts in two higher altitude bands shows that they, and the surface temperature, are roughly in phase with each other. The suggested mechanism to explain this result is that a warming of the Earth’s surface causes low clouds to rise and to be reclassified in the next upper category. The energetics of the process are shown to be satisfactory for this to be the correct explanation.     

格尔木地磁Z分量静日变化特征与前兆异常分析

研究了格尔木地震台1996-2006年地磁模拟资料和2008-2011年的数字化资料,通过对台站磁静日低点时间、日变幅度、日变形态的分析,确认地磁z分量磁静日低点时间在地方时12时左右;日变幅月均值呈现明显的波浪式起伏变化,其年均值与太阳黑子数保持一致;地磁日变形态较为规则,有1个低点和2个高点;在前兆异常分析中,认为低点时间异常和日变形态双低点异常与周边强震具有一定的对应关系。     

用径向基函数神经网络方法预报太阳黑子数平滑月均值

简单介绍了径向基函数神经网络方法的原理和应用,发展了用径向基函数（RBF）对平滑月平均黑子数进行预报的方法. 用不同的数据序列对网络进行训练,对未来8个月的平滑月平均黑子数进行预报. 用该方法对第23周开始后的平滑月平均黑子数进行逐月预报,并与实测值进行比较,结果表明随着预报实效的延长预报误差被逐渐放大,该方法可以较准确地做出未来４个月的预报,绝对误差可以控制在20以内,标准差为4.8,相对误差控制在38％以内,大部分相对误差不超过15%（占总预报数的89％）,具有较好的应用价值. 用于网络训练的样本数量对预报结果会产生一定的影响.     

Prediction of sunspot number amplitude and solar cycle length for cycles 24 and 25

The prediction of solar activity strength for solar cycles 24 and 25 is made on the basis of extrapolation of sunspot number spectral components. Monthly sunspot number data during the 1850–2007 interval (solar cycles 9–23) are decomposed into several levels and searched for periodicities by iterative regression in each level. For solar cycle 24, the peak is predicted in November 2013 with a sunspot number of 113.3. The cycle is expected to be weak, with a length of 133 mo (months) or 11.1 yr. The sunspot number maximum in cycle 25 is predicted to occur in April 2023 with a sunspot number 132.1 and a solar cycle length of 118 mo or 9.8 yr. Thus, solar cycle 24 is predicted to have an intensity 23% lower than cycle 23, and cycle 25 will be 5% lower than cycle 23.