行星会合运动与太阳引潮力的周期性分析

行星会合指数和太阳引潮力指数是行星系统相对于太阳的两个重要指标,在分析行星系统对太阳影响方面具有重要意义.为探究行星系统会合运动及其引发太阳引潮力的周期吻合性,本文对行星会合指数和太阳引潮力指数两指标进行数值模拟,提供了百年、千年尺度的时间序列.对1450—2000AD期间的行星会合指数和太阳引潮力指数进行索周分析,显示行星会合指数存在显著的准19.88年、39.37年、12.94年、25.54年的周期规律,其中19.88年、39.37年的周期性较强、12.94年、25.54年的周期性较弱;太阳引潮力指数存在准11.99年、24.04年、35.99年、48.03年的强周期和4.0年、5.97年、7.98年、16.01年的弱周期.同时,利用功率谱和Morlet小波分别对行星会合指数和太阳引潮力指数进行周期性分析,分析结果与索周分析结果一致.行星会合指数和太阳引潮力指数存在相近的周期性规律又存在不同的周期性特征,反映了两指标的变化特征;行星对太阳正、反垂点产生大小近似相等、方向相反的引潮力,当行星会合指数处于极大或极小值时太阳引潮力指数都将达到极大值.行星对太阳引潮力的复杂性导致太阳引潮力...     

地球地震活动与太阳活动的关系

过去很多研究人员试图寻找地球地震活动与太阳活动的关系,然而并没有得到任何可以信赖的结论,因为他们得到的结果相互矛盾。近年来在这方面进行尝试的有(1989),他的工作证明了地球总体地震活动与11年周期的太阳活动相位相关。如果确切一些,应     

东南沿海地震带地震与太阳活动的关系

研究了东南沿海地震带地震与太阳活动的关系，结果表明，５８．３％的Ｍ≥６．０级地震都发生在太阳活动峰年后的１～４年；应用周期图分析方法外推得出，１９９７年为下一个太阳活动峰年。根据东南沿海地震带地震在太阳活动周期的位相分布规律，指出１９９８～２００１年该带有发生Ｍ≥６．０级地震的可能。研究表明，广东及其邻近地区地震与太阳活动的关系较为密切，规律亦较为明显。     

日月引潮力与华北地区的地震

分析讨论了日月引潮力变化与1900-1992年间发生在中国华北地区的29次Ms>5.5的地震之间的关系,结果表明这些地震的发生时间与日月在震源区形成的引潮力南北方向的水平分量的变化存在高相关性,日月引潮力分量的变化对这些地震的发生可能有一定的诱发作用。     

汶川地震强余震与引潮力关系的初步研究

以汶川地震为例,统计分析2008年5月12日—2009年9月30日5级以上强余震与引潮力的关系,发现平行断层方向的线应变引潮力峰(谷)值时间与汶川地震及强余震发震时间的对应关系较好,且其对应程度与断层性质有关。综合分析认为,引潮力可能是地震的诱发因素之一。     

引潮力与显著地震关系及其在短临预报中的应用

对引潮力与显著地震的关系及其在地震短临预报中的应用作了较系统的总结, 进一步完善了笔者提出的基于显著地震特点的地震短临预报方法, 简称CH方法。 1997年至2003年5月应用CH方法所作的全部21次地震短临预报中, 与地震实况比较, 较好和做了一定程度预报的共有12次, 占57%, 这表明用于地震短临预报的CH方法具有较好的效能。     

不同地区地震与太阳活动的统计关系研究

用时间序列分析和相关分析方法分别对华北北部地区1970～2006年和云南省及周边地区1965～2006年的地震活动与太阳黑子、耀斑活动的相关性进行了分析,得到的结论是,两处的地震活动与太阳活动均不相关.这与以往研究的结论不同,本文同时对产生不同结论的原因进行了初步分析.     

地震活动性与日月引潮力相关性统计分析

基于ISC地震记录,利用天体动力学中二体问题的轨道方程和摄动理论,确定发震时刻太阳在地面的投影点位置,并进一步计算出太阳相对震中的地心天顶距,将地震按天顶距的大小进行统计,得到地震的太阳天顶距地震频度分布。同样的方法,可得地震的月球天顶距地震频度分布。统计发现:地震的太阳天顶距地震频度和月球天顶距地震频度分布表现出一致的规律性,且较大地震和小地震的活动规律不同,较大地震丛集发生在太阳(月球)天顶距0°和180°附近,与地面引潮力的绝对值分布有较好的一致性;而小地震多丛集在太阳(月球)天顶距60°和120°附近。在此基础上,我们对地震的日月天顶距同时进行统计,建立了日月天顶距地震概率密度分布,结果表明,日月投影点及其对蹠点周围,较大地震发生的概率较高。     

引潮力对显著地震触发作用与大震关系的机理讨论

初步讨论了引潮力对显著地震触发作用与大震关系的机理。 结果表明, 这一机理是比较复杂的。 地震发生时水平引潮力方位与地震断层面走向接近, 可能增加断层面上的剪应力, 有利于地震的发生; 水平引潮力方位与地震主张应力轴T轴接近, 可能减小断层面上的正应力, 从而减小断层面上的摩擦力, 也会有利于地震的发生。 所讨论的3个震例中有2个共同点: 其一为大震前显著地震发生时水平引潮力方位相互比较接近; 其二为显著地震破裂面走向和大震破裂面走向基本一致。     

The tidal force function and tidal torques

Summary The tidal force function of the two-body system is defined. It is formed by two parts, reflecting the direct, as well as, the indirect tidal effects. It enables deriving the tidal torques due to both the tidal effects independently of density distributions. The Stokes parameters of both bodies, the Love numbers and phase lag angles are sufficient for the solution.     

Decrease in the mechanical energy of the solar system due to tidal friction

Summary The total decrease in the mechanical energy of the Solar System due to the tidal friction during its whole history has been estimated at 1·7 × 10³³ kg m² s^–2 which is about 0·85% of its present energy integral. The main contributions come from Sun-Jupiter (63·4%), Sun-Saturn (26·6%), Sun-Neptune (5·9%), Sun-Uranus (3·7%), all satellite systems (0·2%), Sun-Venus (0·1%).     

Evidence of earthquakes triggered by the tidal force of the sun and the moon

Studies by many scientists show that Hebei, China is an area with strong correlation between the tidal force and the occurrences of major earthquakes, the Xingtai earthquake of 1966, the Hejian earthquake of 1967 and the Tangshan earthquake of 1976 were triggered by the tidal force, in this paper the study on the common characteristics of their occurrence times confirms these facts. The computed times of maximum horizontal of the semi diurnal solid tide tidal force show that the occurrence times of the above mentioned earthquakes were close to the times of maximum horizontal tidal force of the semi diurnal solid tide at new moon or full moon. The Longyao earthquake of M=6.8, the Ningjin earthquake of M=7.2 and the Hejian earthquake of M=6.3 occurred tens of minutes after the maximum horizontal tidal force of the semi diurnal solid tides, and the Tangshan earthquake of M=7.8 occurred 16 minutes before the maximum horizontal tidal force. The tidal forces were directed to the west. This is their temporal characteristic. It is generally accepted that the 1969 Bohai earthquake of M=7.4 and the 1975 Haicheng earthquake were not triggered by the tidal force. These events did not show such characteristics. The temporal characteristics of the earthquakes indicate that the occurrences of these events were not random, but were controlled by the tidal force from the sun and the moon, and triggered by the tidal force. These facts agree with the triggering mechanism of the tidal force, are evidences of earthquakes triggered by tidal force.     

地球引潮力极大值和强潮汐周期性指数的建立与定性分析

日、月对地球表层海水的引潮力导致潮汐的周期性变化是一种成熟理论.地球除具有日、月、年潮汐规律外,还具有明显的准1800年、200年、50～70年、18.6年、9.3年和2.5～7年不同尺度的周期.本文通过将地球赤道半径和月球轨道半径投影到黄道面上,标定二者矢量半径之和的模的极值状态,创建了引潮力极大值和强潮汐的周期性指数K_SEM.这对探讨和预测潮汐的时间分布和推断地球自转角速度变化规律提供了一种新途径.行星系统中木星和金星对地球的摄动影响最突出,但目前还没有一个行之有效的模型将日、地、月、木星、金星作为一个统一整体,对地球潮汐极值状态进行刻画.通过辨析这五大天体运动预设的位置关系的结构特征,进而考察K_SEM指数与月球升交点和月球近地点会合周期的对应关系,以及对月球轨道运动不同的特征周期的叠加和定性分析,这对探讨强潮汐周期、厄尔尼诺现象和地震的时间分布规律提供了重要参考.     

莎车Ms5．2地震天体引潮力和温度异常初探

对2011年12月1日莎车Ms5．2地震的天体引潮力周期变化过程进行计算,并根据该周期分析了NCEP温度数据资料,提取地震前的异常增温变化图像。结果表明：天体引潮力对处于临界状态的活动断层具有诱发作用;震前温度变化发生明显异常,经历起始增温一异常加强一高峰一衰减一平静的演化过程;出现温度异常位置与震中位置有较好的空间对应关系;NCEP温度异常研究在地震前兆研究中有较好的实用价值。     

Long-term solar activity and terrestrial connections. Part I: theory

The research task described herein aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to the course of long-term solar conditions, long-term meaning decades or a few centuries. The model is based on the premise that since in a last analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and, possibly, some aspects of geospheric phenomena are, or have been, powered by energy issuing from the sun – either now or in the past, the long-term behavior of such phenomena is ultimately connected to long-term changes occurring in the sun itself. Accordingly, the proposed research firstly derives and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long-term solar activity, secondly introduces a transfer-function algorithm for modeling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection, and thirdly probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated effects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely nonlinear. Part I of the study presents the theory of the concept, while Part II demonstrates the concepts pertinence to a number of terrestrial phenomena.This essay has been the basis of two earlier papers, one presented at The 8th International Conference of the European Union of Geosciences in Strasbourg, France, 9–13 April 1995; and the other at The 5th International Conference on Precipitation in Elounda, Crete, Greece, 14–16 June 1995.     

Relationship of atmospheric ozone profiles to solar magnetic activity

The observed relationship between atmospheric vorticity variations and solar magnetic sector boundary passages is examined for a possible connection via ionization changes affecting ozone distributions. A superposed epoch analysis was performed on Umkehr distributions for 18 years from Arosa, Switzerland, with use of more than 500 solar sector boundary passages as keyday zero. No significant responses are observed in any Umkehr level or in total observed ozone amounts. Further analyses on shorter records for Belsk, Poland, and Hohenpeissenberg, West Germany, corroborate these results. Another analysis for Arosa with about 100 type IV solar flares as keyday zero also shows no definitive trend. It is concluded that ozone distribution changes cannot be the primary causative mechanism for vorticity variations.Journal Paper No. J-8838 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, Iowa. Project No. 1852.     

On the stability relationships between tidal asymmetry and morphologies of tidal basins and estuaries

Simple stability relationships are practically useful to provide a rapid assessment of coastal and estuarine landforms in response to human interventions and long‐term climate change. In this contribution, we review a variety of simple stability relationships which are based on the analysis of tidal asymmetry (TA). Most of the existing TA‐based stability relationships are derived using the one‐dimensional tidal flow equations assuming a certain regular shape of the tidal channel cross‐sections. To facilitate analytical solutions, specific assumptions inevitably need to be made, for example by linearizing the friction term and dropping some negligible terms in the tidal flow equations. We find that three major types of TA‐based stability relationships have been proposed between three non‐dimensional channel geometric ratios (represented by the ratio of channel widths, ratio of wet surface areas and ratio of storage volumes) and the tide‐related parameter a/h (i.e. the ratio between tidal amplitude and mean water depth). Based on established geometric relations, we use these non‐dimensional ratios to restate the existing relationships so that they are directly comparable. Available datasets are further extended to examine the utility of these TA‐based relationships. Although a certain agreement is shown for these relationships, we also observe a large scatter of data points which are collected in different types of landscape, hydrodynamic and sedimentological settings over the world. We discuss in detail the potential reasons for this large scatter and subsequently elaborate on the limited applicability of the various TA‐based stability relationships for practical use. We highlight the need to delve further into what constitutes equilibrium and what is needed to develop more robust measures to determine the morphological state of these systems. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

磁暴期离子上行与太阳风及地磁活动水平的统计关系

利用FAST卫星ESA仪器第23太阳活动周上升相(1997-1998年)的观测数据,选取20个磁暴期间能量为4~300 eV的离子上行事件,研究不同磁暴相位电离层上行离子的能通量与太阳风、地磁活动以及电子沉降的统计关系.结果表明：(1)在磁暴初相、主相和恢复相离子上行平均能通量为6.08×10⁷eV/(cm²·s·sr·eV)、5.75×10⁷eV/(cm²·s·sr·eV)和3.91×10⁷eV/(cm²·s·sr·eV),初相期间上行离子能通量最大;(2)上行离子能通量与太阳风动压、行星际磁场B_Z分量存在相关关系,相关系数分别为0.47和-0.38;(3)在磁暴初相、主相和恢复相上行离子能通量与Sym-H的相关系数分别为0.74、-0.77和-0.54,与Kp的相关系数分别为0.53、0.75和0.65,整体上离子上行与Sym-H指数的相关性好于Kp指数;(4)在磁暴初相、主相和恢复相上行离子能通量和电子数通量的相关系数分别为0.74、0.52和0.32,表明磁暴期间软电子(< 1 keV)沉降可以显著提高电离层离子温度;F区的等离子体摩擦加热和双极电场是离子上行的重要获能机制.本文构建的上行离子能通量与Sym-H和电子数通量的经验关系显著,可用于磁流体模拟研究.