On the anomalous land uplift and aseismic creep prior to the 1976 Tangshan earthquake

A spatio-temporal analysis based on the data of eleven repeated levellings around the Tangshan region prior to the 1976 earthquake indicates that an uplift lasting for 2 years, from 1968 through 1969. with a magnitude of 50 mm, occurred in the epicentral area.Aseismic creep superimposed on the accumulated strain has been found in the vicinity of Tangshan and Baodi along both the Tangshan and the Jiyunhe faults.Assuming uniform strain accumulation and elastic dislocation, theoretical values of displacement at the various dislocation sites have been calculated and, using the least squares method, the optimal values of strain accumulation and the parameters of the creep faults in different years have been determined.The creep fault under Tangshan, a right-lateral normal fault, strikes N47°E and dips S87°E. and is 8 km long and 6 km wide. The upper boundary of the fault lies 2 km deep. The strike-slip and dip-slip offsets are, respectively, 104 cm and 8cm. The average rate of strain accumulation amounts to 0.9 × 10⁻⁷/yr. Creep at the fault amounted to 18.6 cm/yr and 1.4 cm/yr, respectively, in the strike and dip directions over the period 1969–1975. The Jiyunhe fault, although of smaller dimensions, has experienced a greater rate of creep than the Tangshan fault.A correlation of the above-mentioned uplift and creep with that of the Tangshan earthquake suggests that the uplift might have been a manifestation of the early development of the earthquake and that aseismic creep may be one of the precursory phenomena of shallow earthquakes. The sequence of processes preceding the Tangshan earthquake may be described as: strain accumulation-land upliftaseismic creep-inverse land deformation (or decrease in creep rate)-earthquake.     

Earthquake dynamics during unrest episodes at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy): A comparison with Rabaul (New Guinea)

We have analysed the earthquake sequence occurred at Campi Flegrei during an unrest episode of strong ground uplift and seismicity, occurred in the period 1982–1984. The maximum magnitude of these events was about 4. Both earthquake occurrence and ground deformation have been interpreted in terms of the role played by a ring fault system, inward dipping, related to phenomena of caldera collapse and resurgence. Earthquakes are of mixed strike-slip and normal fault type. They show a dip movement opposite to the static ground deformation. The rising of the internal block with respect to the zone external to the ring fault, as observed by ground deformation, should cause thrust fault slip on the fracture system, whereas a normal fault dip component is observed. The simulation of the stress field generated by overpressure in a magma chamber in presence of lateral discontinuities, as performed by a boundary element method, allows to hypothesise that reverse fault slip on the ring fault is mainly aseismic, and such aseismic movement is able to focus normal fault shear stress along the lateral discontinuities. Aseismic slip on the ring fault in response to static deformation is also supported by the low amount of seismic moment released (M₀ ≅ 10¹⁵ Nm), about two orders of magnitude lower than expected from the shear slip on the discontinuities needed to accomplish the total static surface deformation (1.8 m). Such results have been compared with observations at Rabaul caldera, during a similar unrest episode. In such area, the seismic moment release is in good agreement with shear slip produced on a system of outward dipping ring faults, and seismicity is much more focused on the fault structures. The comparison between the two areas shed new light about the dynamics of earthquakes in calderas, as due to the role of bordering ring fault systems.     

Seismotectonics of strike–slip earthquakes within the deep crust of southern Italy: Geometry, kinematics, stress field and crustal rheology of the Potenza 1990–1991 seismic sequences (Mmax 5.7)

We present a revision and a seismotectonic interpretation of deep crust strike–slip earthquake sequences that occurred in 1990–1991 in the Southern Apennines (Potenza area). The revision is motivated by: i) the striking similarity to a seismic sequence that occurred in 2002  140 km NNW, in an analogous tectonic context (Molise area), suggesting a common seismotectonic environment of regional importance; ii) the close proximity of such deep strike–slip seismicity with shallow extensional seismicity (Apennine area); and iii) the lack of knowledge about the mechanical properties of the crust that might justify the observed crustal seismicity. A comparison between the revised 1990–1991 earthquakes and the 2002 earthquakes, as well as the integration of seismological data with a rheological analysis offer new constraints on the regional seismotectonic context of crustal seismicity in the Southern Apennines. The seismological revision consists of a relocation of the aftershock sequences based on newly constrained velocity models. New focal mechanisms of the aftershocks are computed and the active state of stress is constrained via the use of a stress inversion technique. The relationships among the observed seismicity, the crustal structure of the Southern Apennines, and the rheological layering are analysed along a crustal section crossing southern Italy, by computing geotherms and two-mechanism (brittle frictional vs. ductile plastic strength) rheological profiles. The 1990–1991 seismicity is concentrated in a well-defined depth range (mostly between 15 and 23 km depths). This depth range corresponds to the upper pat of the middle crust underlying the Apulian sedimentary cover, in the footwall of the easternmost Apennine thrust system. The 3D distribution of the aftershocks, the fault kinematics, and the stress inversion indicate the activation of a right-lateral strike–slip fault striking N100°E under a stress field characterized by a sub-horizontal N142°-trending σ1 and a sub-horizontal N232°-trending σ3, very similar to the known stress field of the Gargano seismic zone in the Apulian foreland. The apparent anomalous depths of the earthquakes (> 15 km) and the confinement within a relatively narrow depth range are explained by the crustal rheology, which consists of a strong brittle layer at mid crustal depths sandwiched between two plastic horizons. This articulated rheological stratification is typical of the central part of the Southern Apennine crust, where the Apulian crust is overthrusted by Apennine units. Both the Potenza 1990–1991 and the Molise 2002 seismic sequences can be interpreted to be due to crustal E–W fault zones within the Apulian crust inherited from previous tectonic phases and overthrusted by Apennine units during the Late Pliocene–Middle Pleistocene. The present strike–slip tectonic regime reactivated these fault zones and caused them to move with an uneven mechanical behaviour; brittle seismogenic faulting is confined to the strong brittle part of the middle crust. This strong brittle layer might also act as a stress guide able to laterally transmit the deviatoric stresses responsible for the strike–slip regime in the Apulian crust and may explain the close proximity (nearly overlapping) of the strike–slip and normal faulting regimes in the Southern Apennines. From a methodological point of view, it seems that rather simple two-mechanism rheological profiles, though affected by uncertainties, are still a useful tool for estimating the rheological properties and likely seismogenic behaviour of the crust.     

Constraints on the location and mechanism of the 1511 Western-Slovenia earthquake from active tectonics and modeling of macroseismic data

The 1511 Western Slovenia earthquake (M = 6.9) is the largest event occurred so far in the region of the Alps–Dinarides junction. Though it strongly influences the regional seismic hazard assessment, the epicenter and mechanism are still under debate. The complexity of the active tectonics of the Alps–Dinarides junction is reflected by the presence of both compressional and transpressional deformations. This complexity is witnessed by the recent occurrence of three main earthquake sequences, the 1976 Friuli thrust faulting events, the 1998 Bovec–Krn Mountain and the 2004 Kobarid strike-slip events. The epicenters of the 1998 and 2004 strike-slip earthquakes (M_s = 5.7 and M_s = 4.9, respectively) lie only 50 km far from the 1976 thrust earthquake (M_s = 6.5).We use the available macroseismic data and recent active tectonics studies, to assess a possible epicenter and mechanism for the 1511 earthquake and causative fault. According with previous works reported in the literature, we analyze both a two-and a single-event case, defining several input fault models. We compute synthetic seismograms up to 1 Hz in an extended-source approximation, testing different rupture propagations and applying a uniform seismic moment distribution on the fault segments. We extract the maximum horizontal velocities from the synthetics and we convert them into intensities by means of an empirical relation. A rounded-to-integer misfit between observed and computed intensities is performed, considering both a minimized and a maximized databases, built to avoid the use of half-degree macroseismic intensity data points. Our results are consistent with a 6.9 magnitude single event rupturing 50 km of the Idrija right-lateral strike-slip fault with bilateral rupture propagation.     

Potential of future seismogenesis in Hebei Province (NE China) due to stress interactions between strong earthquakes

Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ⩾ 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years.     

Geometry of the fault zone of the 2003 Ms = 7.5 Chuya earthquake and associated stress fields, Gorny Altai

The co-seismic deformations produced during the September 27, 2003 Chuya earthquake (Ms = 7.5) that affected the Gorny Altai, Russia, are described and discussed along a 30 km long segment. The co-seismic deformations have manifested themselves both in unconsolidated sediments as R- and R′-shears, extension fractures and contraction structures, and in bedrock as the reactivation of preexisting schistosity zones and individual fractures, as well as development of new ruptures and coarse crushing zones. It has been established that the pattern of earthquake ruptures represents a typical fault zone trending NW–SE with a width reaching 4–5 km and a dextral strike–slip kinematics. The initial stress field that produced the whole structural pattern of co-seismic deformations during the Chuya earthquake, is associated with a transcurrent regime with a NNW–SSE, almost N–S, trending of compressional stress axis (σ₁), and a ENE–WSW, almost E–W, trending of tensional stress axis (σ₃). The state of stress in the newly-formed fault zone is relatively uniform. The local stress variations are expressed in insignificant deviation of σ₁ from N–S to NW–SE or NE–SW, in short-term fluctuations of relative stress values in keeping their spatial orientations, or in a local increase of the plunge angle of the σ₁. The geometry of the fault zone associated with the Chuya earthquake has been compared with the mechanical model of fracturing in large continental fault zones with dextral strike–slip kinematics. It is apparent that the observed fracture pattern corresponds to the late disjunctive stage of faulting when the master fault is not fully developed but its segments are already clearly defined. It has been shown that fracturing in widely different rocks follows the common laws of the deformation of solid bodies, even close to the Earth surface, and with high rates of movements.     

Do faults preserve a record of seismic slip: A second opinion

Exhumed fault zones offer insights into deformation processes associated with earthquakes in unparalleled spatial resolution; however it can be difficult to differentiate seismic slip from slow or aseismic slip based on evidence in the rock record. Fifteen years ago, Cowan (1999) defined the attributes of earthquake slip that might be preserved in the rock record, and he identified pseudotachylyte as the only reliable indicator of past earthquakes found in ancient faults. This assertion was based on models of frictional heat production (Sibson, 1975, 1986) providing evidence for fast slip. Significant progress in fault rock studies has revealed a range of reaction products which can be used to detect frictional heating at peak temperatures less than the melt temperature of the rock. In addition, features formed under extreme transient stress conditions associated with the propagating tip of an earthquake rupture can now be recognized in the rock record, and are also uniquely seismic. Thus, pseudotachylyte is no longer the only indicator of fossilized earthquake ruptures.We review the criteria for seismic slip defined by Cowan (1999), and we determine that they are too narrow. Fault slip at rates in the range 10⁻⁴−10¹ m/s is almost certainly dynamic. This implies that features reproduced in experiments at rates as low as 10⁻⁴ m/s may be indicators of seismic slip. We conclude with a summary of the rock record of seismic slip, and lay out the current challenges in the field of earthquake geology.     

Seismic tomography from local crustal earthquakes beneath eastern Rif Mountains of Morocco

We applied a tomographic method to image an aseismic strike–slip fault in North Morocco and found that the occurrence of earthquakes is not only controlled by the state of tectonic stress but also by material heterogeneity in the crust. We have constructed an integrated model of seismic, electric, magnetic and heat flow properties across northeastern Morocco primarily based on a tomography inversion of local earthquake arrival times. The seismic images obtained show a pronounced low-velocity zone at 5 km depth parallels to the Nekor fault, coinciding with an anomalously high conductive and low gravity structure, which is interpreted as a fault gouge zone and/or a fluid-filled subsurface rock matrix. Below 10 km depth, a weak positive velocity zone indicates that the fault gouge is stable. The seismicity and the seismic velocity results for the Al-Hoceimas region show that the concentrations of earthquakes are confined in the high velocity area. This anomaly is interpreted to be a brittle and competent layer of the upper crust that sustains seismogenic stress. On the eastern coast line of Morocco, we infer that a high density, high velocity body exists in the shallowest layers of the upper crust, probably formed by Miocene volcanic rocks.     

High-angle reverse faulting associated with the 1946 Nankaido earthquake

Analysis of vertical crustal deformation data in the southwestern part of Shikoku, southwest Japan, suggests that the Nankaido earthquake of 1946 (M_w = 8.1), which is a principal interplate thrust earthquake, was accompanied by subsidiary faulting on a splay fault adjacent to the coast of Shikoku. Discarding crustal movement resulting from the main thrusting of the Nankaido earthquake, local leveling data are explained by slip on a simple rectangular thrust fault located just offshore of Shikoku. Although it is difficult to constrain the fault location, a possible result is a high-angle thrust dipping landward at an angle of about 70°, with a dislocation of about 1.5 m, and source dimensions of 30 × 13 km along strike and dip. respectively. This result indicates that the fault may be one of the steeply dipping subsidiary faults branching from the main low-angle thrust, as was the case in the Alaska earthquake of 1964. Although several lines of evidence suggest that this faulting occurred as slow aseismic slip, its discrimination from the main seismic event is extremely difficult. This kind of high-angle thrusting just offshore of the coast would play an important role for the formation of the marine terraces during the late Quaternary period.     

The 1984 Abruzzo earthquake (Italy): an example of seismogenic process controlled by interaction between differently oriented synkinematic faults

The evolution of the seismogenic process associated with the M_s 5.8 Sangro Valley earthquake of May 1984 (Abruzzo, central Italy) is closely controlled by the Quaternary extensional tectonic pattern of the area. This pattern is characterised by normal faults mainly NNW striking, whose length is controlled by pre-existing Mio–Pliocene N100±10° left-lateral strike-slip fault zones. These are partly re-activated as right-lateral normal-oblique faults under the Quaternary extensional regime and behave as transfer faults.Integration of re-located aftershocks, focal mechanisms and structural features are used to explain the divergence between the alignment of aftershocks (WSW–ENE) and the direction of seismogenic fault planes defined by the focal mechanisms (NNW–SSE) of the main shock and of the largest aftershock (M_s=5.3).The faults that appear to be involved in the seismogenic process are the NNW–SSE Barrea fault and the E–W M. Greco fault. There is field evidence of finite Quaternary deformation indicating that the normal Barrea fault re-activates the M. Greco fault as right-lateral transfer fault. No surface faulting was observed during the seismic sequence. The apparently incongruent divergence between aftershocks and nodal planes may be explained by interpreting the M. Greco fault as a barrier to the propagation of earthquake rupturing. The rupture would have nucleated on the Barrea fault, migrating along-strike towards NNW. The sharp variation in direction from the Barrea to the M. Greco fault segments would have represented a structural complexity sufficient to halt the rupture and subsequent concentration of post-seismic deformation as aftershocks around the line of intersection between the two fault planes.Fault complexities, similar to those observed in the Sangro Valley, are common features of the seismic zone of the Apennines. We suggest that the zones of interaction between NW–SE and NNW–SSE Plio-Quaternary faults and nearly E–W transfer faults, extending for several kilometres in the same way as M. Greco does, might act as barriers to the along-strike propagation of rupture processes during normal faulting earthquakes. This might have strong implications on seismic hazard, especially for the extent of the maximum magnitude expected on active faults during single rupture episodes.     

断块大地构造与地震活动的构造物理研究

断块大地构造理论几乎涉及地震活动的各个方面： 1）地震记录表明不但是强震,大多数6级以上地震也分布在构造块体边界上,构造块体控制了地震分布; 2）地震活动规律体现在块体整体活动中。例如,鄂尔多斯地块周边单个断陷带的地震活跃期与平静期长短不一,无明显规律。但当把鄂尔多斯地块周边作为一个整体,其地震活动在时间上显示了准周期性; 3）地块运动通过周边断层交替活动实现。从断层活动相互作用的时间间隔和错动形式出发可把它分为强震交替活动型（又可分长时间间隔和短时间间隔两类）和强震与弱震或断层蠕动交替活动型。强震交替活动型中时间间隔很短的双震活动较早被发现。强震交替活动型中时间间隔很长的类型虽然不易识别,但是依赖于中国历史地震目录,还是发现鄂尔多斯地块周边山西断陷带与渭河断陷带在历史上的3次交替活动等; 强震与弱震或断层蠕动型的交替活动型很不容易被发现,仅在台网较密,观测条件较好的北京地区观测到。4）利用一些实验结果讨论了交替活动的规律。此外,结合断块大地构造理论对一些地震现象进行了讨论。     

Background seismicity in the Central Apennines of Italy: The Abruzzo region case study

We investigate background seismic activity of the Abruzzo region, a 5000 km² area located within the Central Apennines of Italy, where in the past 600 years at least 5 large earthquakes (I = XI–X) have occurred.Between April 2003 and September 2004, a dense temporary seismic network composed of 30 digital three-component seismic stations recorded 850 earthquakes with 0.9 < M_L < 3.7. We present earthquake locations and focal mechanisms obtained by standard procedures and an optimized velocity model computed with a search technique based on genetic algorithms.The seismicity occurs at a low and constant rate of  2.6 e− 04 events/daykm² and is sparsely distributed within the first 15 km of the crust. Minor increases in the seismicity rate are related to the occurrence of small and localised seismic sequences that occur at the tip of major active normal faults along secondary structures.We observe that during the 16 months of study period, the Fucino fault system responsible for the 1915 Fucino earthquake (M_S = 7.0), and the major normal faults of the area, did not produce significant seismic activity.Fault plane solutions evaluated using P-wave polarity data show the predominance of normal faulting mechanisms ( 55%) with NE-trending direction of extension coherent with the regional stress field active in this sector of the Apennines. Around 27% of the focal solutions have pure strike–slip mechanisms and the rest shows transtensional faulting mechanisms that mainly characterise the kinematics of the secondary structures activated by the small sequences.We hypothesize that the largest known NW-trending normal faults are presently locked and we propose that in the case of activation, the secondary structures located at their tips may act as transfer faults accommodating a minor part of the extensional deformation with strike–slip motion.     

基于原地应力实测数据探讨华北典型强震区断裂活动危险性及其对雄安新区的影响

华北地区距雄安新区300 km范围内包括唐山、邢台和张北三个典型强震区,近50年来,先后发生1966年邢台7.2级、1976年唐山7.8级和1998年张北6.2级强震活动,未来仍具发生破坏性地震的风险。在现今构造应力环境下,3个典型强震区内断裂活动危险性如何、再次发生中强地震对雄安新区地面稳定性有怎样的影响,这些都是要回答的问题。对此,本文首先基于唐山、邢台和张北强震区关键构造部位深孔水压致裂地应力测量数据,依据Byerlee断层滑动失稳摩擦准则,计算各强震区内潜在发震断层的临界失稳状态,探讨断裂活动危险性;之后依据中华人民共和国第五代《中国地震动参数区划图》之《中国大陆及邻区潜在震源区划分图》,厘定雄安新区外围300 km范围内主要潜在震源区和震级上限;最后选取适宜的地震烈度衰减模型,定量计算主要潜在震源区未来发生震级上限地震时对雄安新区地震烈度的影响,进而为雄安新区及重大工程抗震设防提供科学参考。结果表明：(1)唐山、邢台和张北强震区内主要潜在震源区未来发生震级上限地震产生的地震烈度衰减至雄安新区时均位于Ⅳ~Ⅶ度;(2)北京通州及邻区发生8.0级地震、涞水—高碑店沿线发生6.5级地震会在雄安新区产生Ⅶ度地震烈度,震害较轻;(3)其他潜在震源区在雄安新区产生的地震烈度均小于V度,并不会产生显著震害效应。鉴于此,雄安新区抗震设防烈度建议由原Ⅶ度调至Ⅷ度为宜。     

Transtensional deformation in the Lake Tahoe region, California and Nevada, USA

Dextral transtensional deformation is occurring along the Sierra Nevada–Great Basin boundary zone (SNGBBZ) at the eastern edge of the Sierra Nevada microplate. In the Lake Tahoe region of the SNGBBZ, transtension is partitioned spatially and temporally into domains of north–south striking normal faults and transitional domains with conjugate strike-slip faults. The normal fault domains, which have had large Holocene earthquakes but account only for background seismicity in the historic period, primarily accommodate east–west extension, while the transitional domains, which have had moderate Holocene and historic earthquakes and are currently seismically active, primarily record north–south shortening. Through partitioned slip, the upper crust in this region undergoes overall constrictional strain.Major fault zones within the Lake Tahoe basin include two normal fault zones: the northwest-trending Tahoe–Sierra frontal fault zone (TSFFZ) and the north-trending West Tahoe–Dollar Point fault zone. Most faults in these zones show eastside down displacements. Both of these fault zones show evidence of Holocene earthquakes but are relatively quiet seismically through the historic record. The northeast-trending North Tahoe–Incline Village fault zone is a major normal to sinistral-oblique fault zone. This fault zone shows evidence for large Holocene earthquakes and based on the historic record is seismically active at the microearthquake level. The zone forms the boundary between the Lake Tahoe normal fault domain to the south and the Truckee transition zone to the north.Several lines of evidence, including both geology and historic seismicity, indicate that the seismically active Truckee and Gardnerville transition zones, north and southeast of Lake Tahoe basin, respectively, are undergoing north–south shortening. In addition, the central Carson Range, a major north-trending range block between two large normal fault zones, shows internal fault patterns that suggest the range is undergoing north–south shortening in addition to east–west extension.A model capable of explaining the spatial and temporal partitioning of slip suggests that seismic behavior in the region alternates between two modes, one mode characterized by an east–west minimum principal stress and a north–south maximum principal stress as at present. In this mode, seismicity and small-scale faulting reflecting north–south shortening concentrate in mechanically weak transition zones with primarily strike-slip faulting in relatively small-magnitude events, and domains with major normal faults are relatively quiet. A second mode occurs after sufficient north–south shortening reduces the north–south S_hmax in magnitude until it is less than S_v, at which point S_v becomes the maximum principal stress. This second mode is then characterized by large earthquakes on major normal faults in the large normal fault domains, which dominate the overall moment release in the region, producing significant east–west extension.     

Crustal structure, fault segmentation, and activity of the Median Tectonic Line in Shikoku, Japan

We conducted a seismic tomographic analysis to estimate the crustal structure beneath the Shikoku and Chugoku regions in Japan. The Philippine Sea slab (PHS slab) subducts continuously in a SE–NW direction beneath this region, and the crustal structure is complex. Furthermore, the Median Tectonic Line (MTL), one of the longest and most active arc-parallel fault systems in Japan (hereafter, the MTL active fault system), is located in this area, and the right-lateral strike–slip movement of this fault system is related to the oblique subduction of the PHS slab. The MTL active fault system has ruptured repeatedly during the last 10 000 years, and has high seismic potential. Our tomographic analysis clarified the heterogeneous crustal structure along the MTL active fault system. This fault system in Shikoku can be divided into two segments, an east segment and a west segment, on the basis of the velocity structure. This segmentation model is consistent with other such models that have been determined from geological and geomorphological data such as fault geometry, slip rate, and faulting history. This consistency suggests that the surface characteristics of the MTL active fault system are related to structural properties of the crust. In particular, a prominent low-velocity (low-V) zone is present in the lower crust beneath the east segment. Our tomographic images show that the lower crust structure beneath the east segment is obviously different from that of the other segment. Furthermore, this low-V zone may indicate the presence of fluid, possibly related to dehydration of the PHS slab. As the presence of fluid in the lower crust affects the activity of the fault, stress accumulation and the fault failure mechanism may differ between the two segments of the MTL active fault system.     

2012年缅甸德贝金M7.0地震及其地表破裂特征

文章以地质地貌与地震遗迹野外调查获得的第一手资料为基础,重点介绍了实皆断裂的活动习性、2012年地震产生的建筑物破坏与地震地表破裂带特征.实皆断裂是一条规模宏大,以右旋走滑为主的全新世活动断裂,其水平滑动速率为18～20 mm/a.历史上沿实皆断裂曾发生10余次7级以上强震,迄今保留有1839年曼德勒因瓦M 8、193...     

Spatio-temporal stress states estimated from seismicity rate changes in the Tokai region, central Japan

Since unprecedented large-scale silent slip was detected by GPS in 2001 in the Tokai region, evaluating whether such movement is uniquely connected to the expected Tokai earthquake or repeatedly occurs in this area becomes vitally important. Because of short history of GPS observations and the limited areal coverage surrounding the Suruga trough, we take advantage of continuously recorded seismicity that is presumed to be sensitive to the deformation at seismogenic depth. Together with the well-maintained NIED earthquake data, we employ the seismicity-to-stress inversion approach of rate/state friction to infer the spatio-temporal stress changes in and around the presumed hypocentral zone of the future Tokai earthquake. Mapping stress changes inverted from microseismicity year by year, we find that the stress under Lake Hamana, the western expected future Tokai source, has been decreasing since 1999, during which the GPS data showed a normal trend of plate coupling. In contrast, stresses in the surrounding regions are calculated to have increased by transfer from Lake Hamana region. We interpret that this continuous process is associated with the 2000–2004 Tokai slow slip event. The characteristic patterns related to aseismic stress-release are also identified in the early 1980s and during 1987–1989, when slow events are inferred to have occurred on the basis of conventional geodetic measurements. Revisiting the seismotectonics and taking into account the mechanical implications of the inversion results, we argue that the transition zone situated between a deep stable creeping zone and a locked zone undergoes episodic creep and plays an important role in the transfer of stress to the locked zone. Consequently, even though we speculate that the current (2000 to present-day) silent slip event might be one of the repeating events, the inferred enlargement of the stress releasing area is significant and possibly raises the likelihood of the next Tokai earthquake.     

Seismic slip rates,potential subsurface rupture areas and seismic potential of the Vienna Basin Transfer Fault

The Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF) is a slow active fault with moderate seismicity (I _max~8–9, M _max~5.7) passing through the most vulnerable regions of Austria and Slovakia. We use different data to constrain the seismic potential of the VBTF including slip values computed from the seismic energy release during the 20th century, geological data on fault segmentation and a depth-extrapolated 3-D model of a generalized fault surface, which is used to define potential rupture zones. The seismic slip of the VBTF as a whole is in the range of 0.22–0.31 mm/year for a seismogenic fault thickness of 8 km. Seismic slip rates for individual segments vary from 0.00 to 0.77 mm/year. Comparing these data to geologically and GPS-derived slip velocities (>1 mm/year) proofs that the fault yields a significant seismic slip deficit. Segments of the fault with high seismic slip contrast from segments with no slip representing locked segments. Fault surfaces of segments within the seismogenic zone (4–14 km depth) vary from 55 to 400 km². Empirical scaling relations show that these segments are sufficiently large to explain both, earthquakes observed in the last centuries, and the 4th century Carnuntum earthquake, for which archeo-seismological data suggest a magnitude of M ≥ 6. Based on the combination of all data (incomplete earthquake catalog, seismic slip deficits, locked segments, potential rupture areas, indications of strong pre-catalog earthquakes) we argue, that the maximum credible earthquake for the VBTF is in the range M _max = 6.0–6.8, significantly larger than the magnitude of the strongest recorded events (M = 5.7).     

Active faulting in the western Pyrénées (France): Paleoseismic evidence for late Holocene ruptures

We have identified a 50-km-long active fault scarp, called herewith the Lourdes Fault, between the city of Lourdes and Arette village in the French Pyrénées. This region was affected by large and moderate earthquakes in 1660 (Io = VIII–IX, MSK 64,), in 1750 (Io = VIII, MSK 64) and in 1967 (M_d = 5.3, Io = VIII, MSK 64). Most earthquakes in this area are shallow and the few available focal mechanism solutions do not indicate a consistent pattern of active deformation. Field investigations in active tectonics indicate an East–West trending and up to 50-m-high fault scarp, in average, made of 3 contiguous linear fault sub-segments. To the north, the fault controls Quaternary basins and shows uplifted and tilted alluvial terraces. Deviated and abandoned stream channels of the southern block are likely due to the successive uplift of the northern block of the fault. Paleoseismic investigations coupled with geomorphic studies, georadar prospecting and trenching along the fault scarp illustrate the cumulative fault movements during the late Holocene. Trenches exhibit shear contacts with flexural slip faulting and thrust ruptures showing deformed alluvial units in buried channels. ¹⁴C dating of alluvial and colluvial units indicates a consistent age bracket from two different trenches and shows that the most recent fault movements occurred between 4221 BC and 2918 BC. Fault parameters and paleoseismic results imply that the Lourdes Fault and related sub-segments may produce a M_W 6.5 to 7.1 earthquake. Fault parameters imply that the Lourdes Fault segment corresponds to a major seismic source in the western Pyrénées that may generate earthquakes possibly larger than the 1660 historical event.