Sensitivity and stability of global climate models

The reciprocal of the surface-temperature gradient of the radiative imbalance, β, is a measure of stability, as well as sensitivity, of a global planetary model. Analysis in terms of β of M.H. Hart's ((1978), Icarus33, 23–29) evolutionary model shows how its insensitivity under present conditions and its near instability at earlier epochs are linked to the assumption of a highly reducing early atmosphere that absorbed strongly in the infrared.     

The possible response of life zones in China under global climate change

The response of natural vegetation to climate change is of global concern. In this research, an aggregated Holdridge Life Zone System was used to study the possible response of life zones in China under doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration with the input climatic parameters at 0.5×0.5° resolution of longitude and latitude from NCAR regional climate model 2 (RegCM2) coupled with the CSIRO global climate model. The results indicate that the latitudinal distribution of life zones would become irregular because of the complicated climate change. In particular, new life zones, such as subtropical desert (SD), tropical desert (TDE) and tropical thorn woodland (TTW), would appear. Subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest (SEBF), tropical rainforest and monsoon forest (TRF), SD, TDE and TTW zones would appear in the northeastern China. Cool-temperate mixed coniferous and broadleaved forest (CMC) and warm-temperate deciduous broadleaved forest (WDBF) zones would appear at latitudes 25–35°N. The temperate desert (TD) in the western China would become Tibetan high-cold plateau (THP), SEBF, WDBF and temperate steppe (TS), and a large part of THP would be replaced by TRF, TDE, SEBF, TS and TTW. The relative area (distribution area/total terrestrial area) of CMC, TRF, TDE and TTW zone would increase about 3%, 21%, 3% and 6%, respectively. However, the relative area of SEBF, TS, TD and THP would decrease about 5%, 3%, 19% and 4%, respectively. In all, the relative area of forests (CCF, CMC, WDBF, SEBF, TRF) would increase about 15%, but the relative area of desert (TD, SD, TDE, and TTW) and THP would decrease about 9% and 4%, respectively. Therefore, responses of different life zones in China to climate change would be dramatic, and nationwide corridors should be considered for the conservation of migrating species under climate change.     

A hydrologic and archeologic study of climate change in Al Ain,United Arab Emirates

Aridity trends established for Al Ain, United Arab Emirates, for the past 4500 years correlate with the trends of increased well depths and declining groundwater levels. Depth of wells found at archeologic sites at Hili near Al Ain were correlated to groundwater levels. Trends of declining groundwater levels were related to trends of increasing aridity (climate change). The increasing aridity had a pronounced affect on man's development in Al Ain area as well. For example, nonirrigation farming could not be successfully sustained at the end of the Bronze Age. This thwarted the economic development until the falaj (a water conveyance structure) was introduced in the Iron Age.The aridity trends in Al Ain correspond to contemporaneous aridity trends noted in Mesopotamia and the Dead Sea area, as well as the Middle East, Mediterranean, and northern Africa, in general. Other global climatic changes that are contemporaneous with climate change at Al Ain have been noted. The increased aridity (desertification) trends at Al Ain are contemporaneous with increased atmospheric CO₂ trends as reported by Indermuhle et al. [Nature (398) 121].     

Interannual variability of regional climate and its change due to the greenhouse effect

Interannual variability of regional climate was investigated on a seasonal basis. Observations and two global climate model (GCM) simulations were intercompared to identify model biases and climate change signals due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Observed record length varies from 40 to 100 years, while the model output comes from two 100-year equilibrium climate simulations corresponding to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at observed 1990 and projected 2050 levels. The GCM includes an atmosphere based on the NCAR CCM1 with the addition of the radiative effects of CH₄, N₂O and CFCs, a bulk layer land surface and a mixed-layer ocean with thermodynamic sea-ice and fixed meridional oceanic heat transport.Because comparisons of interannual variability are sensitive to the time period chosen, a climate ensemble technique has been developed. This technique provides comparisons between variance ratios of two time series for all possible contiguous sub-periods of a fixed length. The time autocorrelation is thus preserved within each sub-period. The optimal sub-period length was found to be 30 years, based on which robust statistics of the ensemble were obtained to identify substantial differences in interannual variability that are both physically important and statistically significant.Several aspects of observed interannual variability were reproduced by the GCM. These include: global surface air temperature; Arctic sea-ice extent; and regional variability of surface air temperature, sea level pressure and 500 mb height over about one quarter of the observed data domains. Substantial biases, however, exist over broad regions, where strong seasonality and systematic links between variables were identified. For instance, during summer substantially greater model variability was found for both surface air temperature and sea-level pressure over land areas between 20–50°N, while this tendency was confined to 20–30°N in other seasons. When greenhouse gas concentrations increase, atmospheric moisture variability is substantially larger over areas that experience the greatest surface warming. This corresponds to an intensified hydrologic cycle and, hence, regional increases in precipitation variability. Surface air temperature variability increases where hydrologic processes vary greatly or where mean soil moisture is much reduced. In contrast, temperature variability decreases substantially where sea-ice melts completely. These results indicate that regional changes in interannual variability due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are associated with mechanisms that depend on the variable and season.     

The Martian hydrologic cycle: Effects of CO2 mass flux on global water distribution

The Martian CO₂ cycle, which includes the seasonal condensation and subsequent sublimation of up to 30% of the planet's atmosphere, produces meridional winds due to the consequent mass flux of CO₂. These winds currently display strong seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries due to the large asymmetries in the distribution of insolation on Mars. It is proposed that asymmetric meridional advection of water vapor on the planet due to these CO₂ condensation winds is capable of explaining the observed dessication of Mars' south polar region at the current time. A simple model for water vapor transport is used to verify this hypothesis and to speculate on the effects of changes in orbital parameters on the seasonal water cycle.     

Reconstructing a lost Eocene Paradise,Part II: On the utility of dynamic global vegetation models in pre-Quaternary climate studies

Models that allow vegetation to respond to and interact with climate provide a unique method for addressing questions regarding feedbacks between the ecosystem and climate in pre-Quaternary time periods. In this paper, we consider how Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), which have been developed for simulations with present day climate, can be used for paleoclimate studies. We begin with a series of tests in the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM)-DGVM with Eocene geography to examine (1) the effect of removing C₄ grasses from the available plant functional types in the model; (2) model sensitivity to a change in soil texture; and (3), model sensitivity to a change in the value of pCO₂ used in the photosynthetic rate equations. The tests were designed to highlight some of the challenges of using these models and prompt discussion of possible improvements. We discuss how lack of detail in model boundary conditions, uncertainties in the application of modern plant functional types to paleo-flora simulations, and inaccuracies in the model climatology used to drive the DGVM can affect interpretation of model results. However, we also review a number of DGVM features that can facilitate understanding of past climates and offer suggestions for improving paleo-DGVM studies.     

The policy relevance of global environmental change research

Many scientists are striving to identify and promote the policy implications of their global change research. Much basic research on global environmental change cannot advance policy directly, but new projects can determine the relevance of their research to decision makers and build policy-relevant products into the work. Similarly, many ongoing projects can alter or add to the present science design to make the research policy relevant. Thus, this paper shows scientists working on global change how to make their research policy relevant. It demonstrates how research on physical global change relates to human dimensions studies and integrated assessments. It also presents an example of how policy relevance can be fit retroactively into a global change project (in this case, SRBEX—the Susquehanna River Basin Experiment) and how that addition can enhance the project's status and science. The paper concludes that policy relevance is desirable from social and scientific perspectives.     

Effects of anthropogenic intervention in the land hydrologic cycle on global sea level rise

Recent studies suggest that anthropogenic modification of land hydrology (e.g. through groundwater mining, dam building, irrigation, deforestation, wetlands drainage, and urbanization) could significantly impact sea-level rise, although the magnitude and sign of this effect have been widely debated. This paper attempts a comprehensive overview of the effects of human activities on land hydrology. Estimates are provided for the volumes of water associated with each of the major anthropogenic processes and the corresponding equivalent in sea level.Groundwater mining; and runoff from paved and built-up areas are two major sources of water added to the ocean. In contrast, storage of water behind dams, losses through percolation, and evapotranspiration from irrigated fields withhold water that would otherwise flow to the sea. The net effect of these processes holds back the equivalent of 0.8 +- 0.4 mm/yr from sea-level rise. This is a magnitude comparable to, but in the opposite direction from the currently observed sea-level rise of 1–2 mm/yr. These estimates are still preliminary, awaiting better documentation. Coupling of improved land hydrology models with GCMs will help in analysis of feedbacks, especially the partitioning of water among runoff, infiltration, and evaporation.     

The effect of climate change on carbon in Canadian peatlands

Peatlands, which are dominant features of the Canadian landscape, cover approximately 1.136 million km², or 12% of the land area. Most of the peatlands (97%) occur in the Boreal Wetland Region (64%) and Subarctic Wetland Region (33%). Because of the large area they cover and their high organic carbon content, these peatlands contain approximately 147 Gt soil carbon, which is about 56% of the organic carbon stored in all Canadian soils.A model for estimating peatland sensitivity to climate warming was used to determine both the sensitivity ratings of various peatland areas and the associated organic carbon masses. Calculations show that approximately 60% of the total area of Canadian peatlands and 51% of the organic carbon mass in all Canadian peatlands is expected to be severely to extremely severely affected by climate change.The increase in average annual air temperature of 3–5 °C over land and 5–7 °C over the oceans predicted for northern Canada by the end of this century would result in the degradation of frozen peatlands in the Subarctic and northern Boreal wetland regions and severe drying in the southern Boreal Wetland Region. In addition, flooding of coastal peatlands is expected because of the predicted rise in sea levels. As a result of these changes, a large part of the carbon in the peatlands expected to be severely and extremely severely affected by climate change could be released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄), which will further increase climate warming.     

The link between abrupt climate change and basin stratigraphy: a numerical approach

To use basin stratigraphy for studying past climate change, it is important to understand the influence of evolving boundary conditions (river discharge and sediment flux, initial bathymetry, sea level, subsidence) and the complex interplay of the redistribution processes (plumes, turbidity currents, debris flows). To provide understanding of this complexity, we have employed source to sink numerical models to evaluate which process dominates the observed variability in a sedimentary record of two coastal Pacific basins, Knight Inlet in British Columbia and the Eel Margin of northern California.During the last glacial period, the Eel River supplied comparatively more sediment with a less variable flux to the ocean, while today the river is dominated by episodic events. Model results show this change in the variability of sediment flux to be as important to the deposit character as is the change in the volume of sediment supply. Due to the complex interaction of flooding events and ocean storm events, the more episodic flood deposits of recent times are less well preserved than the flood deposits associated with an ice-age climate.In Knight Inlet, the evolving boundary conditions (rapidly prograding coastline, secondary transport by gravity flows from sediment failures) are a strong influence on the sedimentary record. The delta and gravity flow deposits punctuate the sedimentary record formed by hemipelagic sedimentation from river plumes. Missing time intervals due to sediment failures can take away the advantage of the otherwise amplified lithologic record of discharge events, given the enclosed nature of the fjord basin.     

Future desertification and climate change: The need for land-surface system evaluation improvement

In already drought-stressed areas and places with the potential for desertification as a result of greenhouse-induced change, high quality model-derived climate projections are essential for sustainable management. Today's challenge is how to select from the plethora of models and proposed new analyses the tools most likely to be valid for areas already water-stressed and those threatened by future surface moisture reduction. Here, the land-surface skills of models involved in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and new techniques of isotopic enrichment of components of evapotranspiration are analyzed. Both are found to have shortcomings. Surprisingly poor reporting of fundamental components of the land-surface system in standard model output was the largest challenge for widely accepted models. We show that very few of a large group (20) of today's climate models report land-surface water and energy budgets correctly in a well-controlled international experiment and that most fail basic conservation tests. Our analysis of a smaller (5) experiment suggests that isotopic techniques employed in arid zone irrigation management may not transition to evaluation and model improvement. Land-surface conditions important for policy are found to be poorly reported which raises questions about equal weighting given by international assessments to all models: good and bad.     

The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach

This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. We use cross-sectional data on climate, hydrological, soil and household level data for a sample of 816 households. We estimate a seasonal Ricardian model to assess the impact of climate on net crop revenue per acre. The results show that climate affects crop productivity. There is a non-linear relationship between temperature and revenue on one hand and between precipitation and revenue on the other. Estimated marginal impacts suggest that global warming is harmful for crop productivity. Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue in Kenya. The results also show that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change. Improved management and conservation of available water resources, water harvesting and recycling of wastewater could generate water for irrigation purposes especially in the arid and semi-arid areas.     

Titan global climate model: A new 3-dimensional version of the IPSL Titan GCM

We have developed a new 3-dimensional climate model for Titan’s atmosphere, using the physics of the IPSL Titan 2-dimensional climate model with the current version of the LMDZ General Circulation Model dynamical core. Microphysics and photochemistry are still computed as zonal averages. This GCM covers altitudes from surface to 500 km altitude, with barotropic waves now being resolved and the diurnal cycle included. The boundary layer scheme has been changed, yielding a strong improvement in the tropospheric zonal wind profile modeled at Huygens descent position and season. The potential temperature profile is fairly consistent with Huygens observations in the lowest 10 km. The latitudinal profile of the near-surface temperature is close to observed values. The minimum of zonal wind observed by the Huygens probe just above the tropopause is also present in these simulations, and its origin is discussed by comparing solar heating and dynamical transport of energy. The stratospheric temperature and wind fields are consistent with our previous works. Compared to observations, the zonal wind peak is too weak (around 120 m/s) and too low (around 200 km). The temperature structures appear to be compressed in altitude, and depart strongly from observations in the upper stratosphere. These discrepancies are correlated, and most probably related to the altitude of the haze production. The model produces a detached haze layer located more than 150 km lower than observed by the Cassini instruments. This low production altitude is due to the current position of the GCM upper boundary. However, the temporal behaviour of the detached haze layer in the model may explain the seasonal differences observed between Cassini and Voyager 1. The waves present in the GCM are analyzed, together with their respective roles in the angular momentum budget. Though the role of the mean meridional circulation in momentum transport is similar to previous work, and the transport by barotropic waves is clearly seen in the stratosphere, a significant part of the transport at high latitudes is done all year long through low-frequency tropospheric waves that may be baroclinic waves.     

Soil moisture: A critical focus for global change studies

The scientific and human dimensions of global change have many overlapping themes which offer a focus on processes occurring at the continental surface. Soil moisture is of critical importance to the physical processes governing energy and water exchanges at the land/air boundary. Soil moisture controls the extent to which plants can exploit sunlight in photosynthesis and the effectiveness with which agriculture, forestry and freshwater resources can be developed. The importance of the soil moisture to many, diverse communities has resulted in a very large collection of numerical models all of which simulate soil moisture. This paper outlines why and how a series of soil moisture simulation intercomparisons were conducted in a one-year exercise jointly sponsored by the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme and the World Climate Research Programme.     

Evidence for Amazonian northern mid-latitude regional glacial landsystems on Mars: Glacial flow models using GCM-driven climate results and comparisons to geological observations

A fretted valley system on Mars located at the northern mid-latitude dichotomy boundary contains lineated valley fill (LVF) with extensive flow-like features interpreted to be glacial in origin. We have modeled this deposit using glacial flow models linked to atmospheric general circulation models (GCM) for conditions consistent with the deposition of snow and ice in amounts sufficient to explain the interpreted glaciation. In the first glacial flow model simulation, sources were modeled in the alcoves only and were found to be consistent with the alpine valley glaciation interpretation for various environments of flow in the system. These results supported the interpretation of the observed LVF deposits as resulting from initial ice accumulation in the alcoves, accompanied by debris cover that led to advancing alpine glacial landsystems to the extent observed today, with preservation of their flow texture and the underlying ice during downwasting in the waning stages of glaciation. In the second glacial flow model simulation, the regional accumulation patterns predicted by a GCM linked to simulation of a glacial period were used. This glacial flow model simulation produced a much wider region of thick ice accumulation, and significant glaciation on the plateaus and in the regional plains surrounding the dichotomy boundary. Deglaciation produced decreasing ice thicknesses, with flow centered on the fretted valleys. As plateaus lost ice, scarps and cliffs of the valley and dichotomy boundary walls were exposed, providing considerable potential for the production of a rock debris cover that could preserve the underlying ice and the surface flow patterns seen today. In this model, the lineated valley fill and lobate debris aprons were the product of final retreat and downwasting of a much larger, regional glacial landsystem, rather than representing the maximum extent of an alpine valley glacial landsystem. These results favor the interpretation that periods of mid-latitude glaciation were characterized by extensive plateau and plains ice cover, rather than being restricted to alcoves and adjacent valleys, and that the observed lineated valley fill and lobate debris aprons represent debris-covered residual remnants of a once more extensive glaciation.