Quantitative mapping of a precursory seismic quiescence to the Izu–Oshima 1990 (M6.5) earthquake, Japan

A highly significant seismic quiescence with a standard deviate Z = 10.1. corresponding to a 99 per cent confidence level, lasted from 1987.7 up to the 1990 February 20 Izu-Oshima M 6.5 earthquake. The quiescent volume had dimensions of 30 km N-S and 10 km E-W and was centred below 14 km depth. Within the recently upgraded seismograph network of the Earthquake Research Institute (ERI), this main shock was the only one with a magnitude M > 5.8 in the upper 30 km of the crust for which the precursory quiescence hypothesis could be tested. Within a radius of 50 km, and during the observation period (1983.5–1995.9), there were no other 1.5 yr or longer periods of quiescence that were rated Z > 6.5 in the declustered earthquake catalogue, except one that was associated with volcanic activity. The total space-time covered by alarms, including the volcanic one, was less than 1 per cent at the Z = 6.5 level. The rarity of highly significant episodes of quiescence, and the correlation in space and time suggest that a precursory seismic quiescence started 2.5 yr before the Izu-Oshima 1990 earthquake in its source volume and to the north of it, and that it can be recognized with an alarm level of Z = 6.0, generating no false alarms. During the 1.5 yr quiescence window, only 10 earthquakes occurred in the quiet volume, whereas 50 events were expected based on the rate seen at other times. In randomly selected volumes containing 50, 100 and 200 events, the anomaly scored Z = 6.1 to 10.1. On the basis of the data from May 1983 to 1995, there is no highly significant quiescence currently present in the Izu-Oshima area.     

FIR filter effects and nucleation phases

The symmetric impulse response of linear phase Finite Impulse Response (FIR) filters most commonly used in modern seismic recording systems produces precursory signals to impulsive arrivals. These acausal filter-generated artefacts may result in misinterpretations of various onset properties. Prior to any onset interpretation, these effects have to be removed from the seismic record. This can be achieved without loss of bandwidth by post-filtration of the digital seismograms if the filter coefficients and the decimation ratios are known. We have analysed numerous signals from different instruments and sampling rates for precursory phases and found that—in contrast to commonly held beliefs—FIR-filter-related precursory signals are not always easy to recognize visually from their waveform signature. Furthermore, they can exhibit surprisingly similar properties to those reported for nucleation phases, although the majority of nucleation phases reported in the past have been obtained on instruments with a causal response. We demonstrate examples of filter-related precursory signals for events scanning nine orders of moment, from 10¹⁰ N m to 10¹⁹ N m. Surprisingly, the lower bound of the artefact durations as a function of seismic moment scales close to the cube root of the seismic moment. We interpret this as being caused by the fact that above a certain seismic moment, the attenuated source signal acts as a causal lowpass filter of a smaller bandwidth than the FIR filter. Assuming an ω^-2 source model, constant stress drop and an empirical relationship between the maximum artefact duration and the cut-off frequency of the FIR filter, the artefact durations are expected to scale proportional to the 1/2.5 power of the seismic moment, in comparison to 1/3 as proposed for nucleation phases.     

Quadrangle-grid velocity–stress finite difference method for poroelastic wave equations

A quadrangle-grid velocity–stress finite difference method, based on a first-order hyperbolic system that is equivalent to Biot's equations, is developed for the simulation of wave propagation in 2-D heterogeneous porous media. In this method the velocity components of the solid material and of the pore fluid relative to that of the solid, and the stress components of three solid stresses and one fluid pressure are defined at different nodes for a staggered non-rectangular grid. The scheme uses non-orthogonal grids, allowing surface topography and curved interfaces to be easily modelled in the numerical simulation of seismic responses of poroelastic reservoirs. The free-surface conditions of complex geometry are achieved by using integral equilibrium equations on the surface, and the source implementations are simple. The algorithm is an extension of the quadrangle-grid finite difference method used for elastic wave equations.     

Precursory seismic quiescence in the Mudurnu Valley, North Anatolian fault zone, Turkey

The seismicity rate in the Mudurnu Valley of Turkey was studied using an earthquake catalogue that reports events homogeneously down to magnitude 2.3 for the years 1985–1989, and covers the area between latitudes 40.2° and 41.0°N, and longitudes 30.0° and 31.5°E. During this period the only two main shocks, M = 4.0 and M = 4.3, occurred on 1988 September 6 and 1988 December 9 within about 30km of each other. A highly significant seismic quiescence is evident in the area surrounding these main shocks, while the seismicity rate in the rest of the area covered by the catalogue remains constant. the quiescence becomes more pronounced the smaller the area around the main shocks that is studied. the smallest areas that can be studied contain about 60 earthquakes and have dimensions of approximately 25km on each side. the decreases in seismicity rates are 50–80 per cent depending on the volume and period used for defining the quiescence. the quiescence started in 1988 January and lasted about seven months, with approximately 4.5 months of normal activity separating it from the main shock of December. the precursor time of 12 months for an M = 4.3 main shock is similar to those observed in California. It is concluded that it is possible to resolve precursory quiescence before moderate and large earthquakes in the Mudurnu area with the existing seismograph network.     

Sequential integrated inversion of refraction and wide-angle reflection traveltimes and gravity data for two-dimensional velocity structures

A new algorithm is presented for the integrated 2-D inversion of seismic traveltime and gravity data. The algorithm adopts the 'maximum likelihood' regularization scheme. We construct a 'probability density function' which includes three kinds of information: information derived from gravity measurements; information derived from the seismic traveltime inversion procedure applied to the model; and information on the physical correlation among the density and the velocity parameters. We assume a linear relation between density and velocity, which can be node-dependent; that is, we can choose different relationships for different parts of the velocity–density grid. In addition, our procedure allows us to consider a covariance matrix related to the error propagation in linking density to velocity. We use seismic data to estimate starting velocity values and the position of boundary nodes. Subsequently, the sequential integrated inversion (SII) optimizes the layer velocities and densities for our models. The procedure is applicable, as an additional step, to any type of seismic tomographic inversion.
We illustrate the method by comparing the velocity models recovered from a standard seismic traveltime inversion with those retrieved using our algorithm. The inversion of synthetic data calculated for a 2-D isotropic, laterally inhomogeneous model shows the stability and accuracy of this procedure, demonstrates the improvements to the recovery of true velocity anomalies, and proves that this technique can efficiently overcome some of the limitations of both gravity and seismic traveltime inversions, when they are used independently.
An interpretation of field data from the 1994 Vesuvius test experiment is also presented. At depths down to 4.5 km, the model retrieved after a SII shows a more detailed structure than the model obtained from an interpretation of seismic traveltime only, and yields additional information for a further study of the area.     

Candidate precursors: pulse-like geoelectric signals possibly related to recent seismic activity in Japan

Telemetric network observations of pulse-like geoelectric charge signals using a vertical dipole buried under the ground were undertaken at various observation sites over a wide area in Japan from April 1996. From continuous records of the signals during the six months following that, we attempted to select anomalous signals, possibly related to seismic electric activity. Special attention was paid to the elimination of noise resulting from industrial and meteorological electric activity, comparison with other electromagnetic signals in the VLF band and the relation between the precursor period and the distance from the eventual main shock that occurred in Japan. Four candidate precursor electric signals, which were not contaminated by industrial and meteorological electric activity, were then selected, of which the second appeared before the Akita-ken Nairiku-nanbu earthquake swarm, for which the maximum M = 5.9 occurred on 1996 August 11, and the third and fourth before the Chiba-ken Toho-oki earthquake, M = 6.6, on 1996 September 11. A tentative qualitative model explaining why the candidate precursory signal is related to stress building up before an earthquake is presented in terms of the electrification of gases released from fracturing rocks immediately prior to the main shock.     

Velocity structure of upper-mantle transition zones beneath central eurasia from seismic inversion using genetic algorithms

We present velocity constraints for the upper-mantle transition zones beneath Central Siberia based on observations of the 1982 RIFT Deep Seismic Sounding (DSS) profile. The data consist of seismic recordings of a nuclear explosion in north-western Siberia along a 2600 km long seismic profile extending from the Yamal Peninsula to Lake Baikal. We invert seismic data from the mantle transition zones using a non-linear inversion scheme using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the WKBJ method to compute the synthetic seismograms. A statistical error analysis using a graph-binning technique was performed to provide uncertainty values in the velocity models.
Our best model for the upper-mantle velocity discontinuity near 410 km depth has a two-stage velocity-gradient structure, with velocities increasing from 8.70–9.25 km s⁻¹ over a depth range of 400–415 km, a gradient of 0.0433 s⁻¹, and from 9.25–9.60 km s⁻¹ over a depth range of 415–435 km, a gradient of 0.0175 s⁻¹. This derived model is consistent with other seismological observations and mineral-physics models. The model for the velocity discontinuity near 660 km depth is simple, sharp and includes velocities increasing from 10.15 km s⁻¹ at 655 km depth to 10.70 km s⁻¹ at 660 km depth, a gradient of 0.055 s⁻¹.     

Inversion of seismic attributes for velocity and attenuation structure

We have developed an inversion formuialion for velocity and attenuation structure using seismic attributes, including envelope amplitude, instantaneous frequency and arrival times of selected seismic phases. We refer to this approach as AFT inversion for amplitude, (instantaneous) frequency and time. Complex trace analysis is used to extract the different seismic attributes. The instantaneous frequency data are converted to t * using a matching procedure that approximately removes the effects of the source spectra. To invert for structure, ray-perturbation methods are used to compute the sensitivity of the seismic attributes to variations in the model. An iterative inversion procedure is then performed from smooth to less smooth models that progressively incorporates the shorter-wavelength components of the model. To illustrate the method, seismic attributes are extracted from seismic-refraction data of the Ouachita PASSCAL experiment and used to invert for shallow crustal velocity and attenuation structure. Although amplitude data are sensitive to model roughness, the inverted velocity and attenuation models were required by the data to maintain a relatively smooth character. The amplitude and t * data were needed, along with the traveltimes, at each step of the inversion in order to fit all the seismic attributes at the final iteration.     

A practical regularization for seismic tomography

Regularization is usually necessary in solving seismic tomographic inversion problems. In general the equation system of seismic tomography is very large, often making a suitable choice of the regularization parameter difficult. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for the practical choice of the regularization parameter in linear tomographic inversion. The algorithm is based on the types of statistical assumptions most commonly used in seismic tomography. We first transfer the system of equations into a Krylov subspace by using Lanczos bidiagonalization. In the transformed subspace, the system of equations is then changed into the form of a standard damped least squares normal equation. The solution to this normal equation can be written as an explicit function of the regularization parameter, which makes the choice of the regularization computationally convenient. Two criteria for the choice of the regularization parameter are investigated with the numerical simulations. If the dimensions of the transformed space are much less than that of the original model space, the algorithm can be very computationally efficient, which is practically useful in large seismic tomography problems.     

Seismic quiescence before the M 7, 1988, Spitak earthquake, Armenia

A detailed analysis of the 35  yr of seismicity between 1962 and 1997 using a gridding technique shows that the M 7, Spitak earthquake of 1988 December 7 was preceded by a quiescence anomaly that started at approximately 1984±0.5, and lasted about 5±0.5  yr, up to the main shock. This quiescence anomaly had a radius of about 20±3  km, estimated from circular areas with 75 per cent rate decrease, centred at the point of maximum significance of the anomaly. The quiescence was clearly present in the aftershock volume during the 5  yr before the 1988 main shock, but its statistically strongest expression was located 30  km NW of the epicentre. This anomaly fulfills the association rules between precursory quiescence anomalies and main shocks, even for a tight definition, and is therefore proposed as a case of precursory quiescence. The largest value of the standard deviate Z , found by random selection of samples by gridding, was Z =14 for a time window of T _w=3  yr, using a sample size of N =300 events. This makes this anomaly the strongest observed so far, and it is the first documented in an environment of continental collision. There are no false alarms exceeding in significance the precursor. The Armenian earthquake catalogue used for this study had 4600 earthquakes with M ≥ M _min=2.2 in the area bounded by 39.5° to 42°N/42.5° to 47°E. From the point of view of homogeneous reporting this is the best catalogue we have analysed so far. The limits of the data used and the density of the grid are dictated by the data, and have no influence on the results. The choice of free parameters does not influence the results significantly within the following limits: 100≤ N ≤500, 2≤ T _w≤7, 2.2≤ M _min≤2.8.     

The role of seismicity models in probabilistic seismic hazard estimation: comparison of a zoning and a smoothing approach

Seismic hazard estimations are compared using two approaches based on two different seismicity models: one which models earthquake recurrence by applying the truncated Gutenberg-Richter law and a second one which smoothes the epicentre location of past events according to the fractal distribution of earthquakes in space ( Woo 1996 ). The first method requires the definition of homogeneous source zones and the determination of maximum possible magnitudes whereas the second method requires the definition of a smoothing function. Our results show that the two approaches lead to similar hazard estimates in low seismicity regions. In regions of increased seismic activity, on the other hand, the smoothing approach yields systematically lower estimates than the zoning method. This epicentre-smoothing approach can thus be considered as a lower bound estimator for seismic hazard and can help in decision making in moderate seismicity regions where source zone definition and estimation of maximum possible magnitudes can lead to a wide variety of estimates due to lack of knowledge. The two approaches lead, however, to very different earthquake scenarios. Disaggregation studies at a representative number of sites show that if the distributions of contributions according to source–site distance are comparable between the two approaches, the distributions of contributions according to magnitude differ, reflecting the very different seismicity models used. The epicentre-smoothing method leads to scenarios with predominantly intermediate magnitudes events (5 ≤ M ≤ 5.5) while the zoning method leads to scenarios with magnitudes that increase with the return period from the minimum to the maximum magnitudes considered. These trends demonstrate that the seismicity model used plays a fundamental role in the determination of the controlling scenarios and ways to discriminate between the most appropriate models remains an important issue.     

Seismic tomographic imaging of P- and S-waves velocity perturbations in the upper mantle beneath Iran

The inverse tomography method has been used to study the P - and S -waves velocity structure of the crust and upper mantle underneath Iran. The method, based on the principle of source–receiver reciprocity, allows for tomographic studies of regions with sparse distribution of seismic stations if the region has sufficient seismicity. The arrival times of body waves from earthquakes in the study area as reported in the ISC catalogue (1964–1996) at all available epicentral distances are used for calculation of residual arrival times. Prior to inversion we have relocated hypocentres based on a 1-D spherical earth's model taking into account variable crustal thickness and surface topography. During the inversion seismic sources are further relocated simultaneously with the calculation of velocity perturbations. With a series of synthetic tests we demonstrate the power of the algorithm and the data to reconstruct introduced anomalies using the ray paths of the real data set and taking into account the measurement errors and outliers. The velocity anomalies show that the crust and upper mantle beneath the Iranian Plateau comprises a low velocity domain between the Arabian Plate and the Caspian Block. This is in agreement with global tomographic models, and also tectonic models, in which active Iranian plateau is trapped between the stable Turan plate in the north and the Arabian shield in the south. Our results show clear evidence of the mainly aseismic subduction of the oceanic crust of the Oman Sea underneath the Iranian Plateau. However, along the Zagros suture zone, the subduction pattern is more complex than at Makran where the collision of the two plates is highly seismic.     

The synthetic seismic expression of the Messinian salinity crisis from onshore records: Implications for shallow‐ to deep‐water correlations

The onshore–offshore correlation of sedimentary successions is a common problem in basin analysis, but it becomes critical for the full understanding of the Messinian salinity crisis (MSC), a complex array of palaeoenvironmental events which affected the Mediterranean basin at the end of the Miocene. The outcrop records show that the Messinian stratigraphic architectures may be highly complex as the deposits of the different MSC evolutionary stages can be lithologically similar and separated by erosional surfaces and/or morphostructural highs. The correct definition of the nature and stratigraphic position of Messinian deposits in offshore areas through seismic data may be almost impossible, especially where core data are sparse. To bridge the gap between onshore and offshore records, we have built synthetic seismic sections from well‐constrained outcrop successions. Our results provide useful insights and warnings for the interpretation of offshore data, pointing out that MSC units having different age, nature and depositional settings, may show similar seismic facies and geometries. Conversely, the same deposit may result in different seismic facies, either with parallel and high‐amplitude reflections or even transparent or chaotic due to interference patterns of seismic reflections related to dominant frequency. It follows that a correct interpretation of the nature and age of deep‐seated Messinian deposits can only be obtained through the integration of seismic and core data, and considering the onshore record. The application of our approach to the Balearic Promontory results in an alternative interpretation with respect to previous models. We show that this offshore area has good analogues in the onshore of the Betic Cordillera and includes both shallow and intermediate depth sub‐basins that underwent a strong post‐Messinian subsidence.     

Crosshole seismic waveform tomography – I. Strategy for real data application

The frequency-domain version of waveform tomography enables the use of distinct frequency components to adequately reconstruct the subsurface velocity field, and thereby dramatically reduces the input data quantity required for the inversion process. It makes waveform tomography a computationally tractable problem for production uses, but its applicability to real seismic data particularly in the petroleum exploration and development scale needs to be examined. As real data are often band limited with missing low frequencies, a good starting model is necessary for waveform tomography, to fill in the gap of low frequencies before the inversion of available frequencies. In the inversion stage, a group of frequencies should be used simultaneously at each iteration, to suppress the effect of data noise in the frequency domain. Meanwhile, a smoothness constraint on the model must be used in the inversion, to cope the effect of data noise, the effect of non-linearity of the problem, and the effect of strong sensitivities of short wavelength model variations. In this paper we use frequency-domain waveform tomography to provide quantitative velocity images of a crosshole target between boreholes 300 m apart. Due to the complexity of the local geology the velocity variations were extreme (between 3000 and 5500 m s⁻¹), making the inversion problem highly non-linear. Nevertheless, the waveform tomography results correlate well with borehole logs, and provide realistic geological information that can be tracked between the boreholes with confidence.     

Detailed S-wave structure in the Dublin Basin and its northern margin

Summary. The seismic structure has been measured to a depth of about 3 km along a 30 km seismic profile in east central Ireland. This profile is unusual in that it is the S -wave velocity—depth structure that has been measured to a degree of precision more normally associated with P -wave results. One reason for this is that the sources used were quarry blasts which generated strong S -waves and short-period surface waves but rather weak P -waves.
The results show a layer of Carboniferous limestone with shear velocity 2.65 km⁻¹ s overlying a layer with a velocity of 3.06 km s⁻¹. This second layer was interpreted as Lower Palaeozoic strata (Silurian/Ordovician) since this velocity was evident in an inlier seen at the surface at the northern end of the line. A third refraction horizon, shear velocity 3.45 km s⁻¹ and displaying a basinal structure, was also recognized. This may be Cambrian or Precambrian basement.     

Constraints on the frequency–magnitude relation and maximum magnitudes in the UK from observed seismicity and glacio-isostatic recovery rates

Earthquake populations have recently been shown to have many similarities with critical-point phenomena, with fractal scaling of source sizes (energy or seismic moment) corresponding to the observed Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) frequency–magnitude law holding at low magnitudes. At high magnitudes, the form of the distribution depends on the seismic moment release rate M˙ and the maximum magnitude m _max . The G–R law requires a sharp truncation at an absolute maximum magnitude for finite M˙ . In contrast, the gamma distribution has an exponential tail which allows a soft or 'credible' maximum to be determined by negligible contribution to the total seismic moment release. Here we apply both distributions to seismic hazard in the mainland UK and its immediate continental shelf, constrained by a mixture of instrumental, historical and neotectonic data. Tectonic moment release rates for the seismogenic part of the lithosphere are calculated from a flexural-plate model for glacio-isostatic recovery, constrained by vertical deformation rates from tide-gauge and geomorphological data. Earthquake focal mechanisms in the UK show near-vertical strike-slip faulting, with implied directions of maximum compressive stress approximately in the NNW–SSE direction, consistent with the tectonic model. Maximum magnitudes are found to be in the range 6.3–7.5 for the G–R law, or 7.0–8.2 m _L for the gamma distribution, which compare with a maximum observed in the time period of interest of 6.1 m _L . The upper bounds are conservative estimates, based on 100 per cent seismic release of the observed vertical neotectonic deformation. Glacio-isostatic recovery is predominantly an elastic rather than a seismic process, so the true value of m _max is likely to be nearer the lower end of the quoted range.     

中国地震灾害人口死亡风险定量评估(英文)

基于地震灾害风险形成机理,在建立人口震害脆弱性曲线与确定地震发生参数的基础上,本文利用评估模型对我国Ⅴ-Ⅺ地震烈度下各县域单元的人口死亡风险进行评估并分析其空间分布格局。主要研究内容有:(1)首次采用基于过去—现在—未来的多方面地震孕灾环境资料来处理地震发生的可能性。具体综合历史地震综合烈度、地震活动断裂带分布、地震动峰值加速度三方面来确定全国2355个县域单元的地震发生参数;(2)利用1990-2009年我国历史地震灾情数据,对地震烈度与人员死亡率之间进行线性拟合,建立适合我国地震灾害风险评估的震害人口死亡脆弱性曲线;(3)利用震害风险评估模型对我国各县域单元的人口死亡风险进行定量评估,并分析风险空间分布格局,彻底摸清Ⅴ-Ⅺ地震烈度下我国各县域单元的地震灾害人口死亡风险。研究表明:在不同地震烈度下,我国广大的东、中部地区面临更高的风险,而西部的人口死亡风险相对较低。高风险区域呈零星状分布于山东与江苏大部、安徽北部、黑龙江与吉林东部等人口分布较密集且孕灾环境发育完备的区域。而无风险区域在全国范围内呈斑块状散布,分布格局基本保持不变。     

3-D seismic velocities calculated from lattice-preferred orientation and reflectivity of a lower crustal section: examples of the Val Sesia section (Ivrea zone, northern Italy)

To quantify the seismic properties of lower crustal rocks and to better constrain the origin of the lower crustal seismic reflectivity, we determined the complete 3-D seismic properties of a lower crustal section. Eight representative samples of the main lithologic and structural units outcropping in the Val Sesia (Ivrea zone) were studied in detail. The seismic velocities were calculated using the single crystal stiffness coefficients and the lattice preferred orientation (LPO) of each mineral in all samples. The 21 stiffness coefficients characterizing the elastic behaviour of each rock are determined. Mafic and ultramafic rocks such as pyroxenite and pyroxene-bearing gabbros display complex shear wave properties. These rocks are weakly birefringent (maximum 0.1 kms⁻¹) and it is difficult to find consistent relationships between the seismic properties and the rock structure. On the other hand, seismic properties of deformed felsic rocks are essentially controlled by mica. They display strong S -wave birefringence (0.3 km s⁻¹) and relatively high V _p anisotropy (7.6 per cent). Amphibole also strongly influences the rock birefringence patterns. For both kind of rocks, the foliation is highly birefringent and the fast polarized shear wave is systematically oriented parallel to the foliation. We show that the number of mineral phases in the rock strongly controls the anisotropy. The seismic anisotropy has a complex role in the P -wave reflectivity. Compared to the isotropic case, anisotropy enhances the reflection coefficient for about 60 per cent of the possible lithological interfaces. For 40 per cent of the interfaces, the reflection coefficient is much lower when one considers the medium as anisotropic.     

Station threshold bias in short-period amplitude distance and station terms used to compute body-wave magnitudes mb

A cause of bias in estimates of distance and station terms used to compute seismic magnitudes ( m _b) is demonstrated in a comparative study on the world amplitude–distance curve. This bias results from the presence of station thresholds in the measurement and reporting of seismic amplitudes and is analogous to that known to be present in routinely computed magnitudes. Distance terms corresponding to low amplitudes such as in the core shadow will tend to be positively biased as are station terms for stations with high thresholds.     

Wavepath traveltime tomography

The elastic-wave equation is used to construct sensitivity kernels relating perturbations in elastic parameters to traveltime deviations. Computation of the functions requires a correlation of the forward-propagating seismic wavefield with a backward propagation of the residual wavefield. The computation of the wavefields is accomplished using a finite difference algorithm and is efficiently executed on a CM-2 parallel processor. The source and receiver locations have maximum sensitivity to velocity structure. The sensitivity kernels or wavepaths are well suited for transmission traveltime inversion such as cross-borehole tomography and vertical seismic profiling. Conventional ray tomography and wavepath tomography are applied to a set of P -wave arrival times, from a cross-borehole experiment at Kesterson, California. Because the wavepaths have increased sensitivity near the source and receiver there are differences in resolution of the velocity structure. Both techniques recover the same relative variations in velocity where the coverage is adequate. The wavepath solution is more laterally continuous and the dominant variation is vertical, as is expected for the layered sediments in this region.