Probabilistic Regularities in Unfavorable Hydrochemical Phenomena

The balance equation for a substance washed out in a river basin is analyzed under the assumption that the runoff of this substance and its reserves in the watershed are directly proportional. The proportionality factor is perturbed by a random component, which accounts for the effect of atmospheric precipitation. The balance equation is transformed into a stochastic differential equation with a multiplicative white noise, which is used to construct a Fokker-Plank equation for the probability density of chemical flow. A stationary solution containing a power function is found for this equation. Because of the proportionality of the concentration and chemical flow, the concentration distribution also obeys the power law. Statistical treatment of empirical data on some water quality characteristics and water flow showed that the power law adequately describes the probability of unfavorable hydrochemical events. The parameters of this law for turbidity, color index, permanganate oxidability, and ammonia concentration are evaluated.__________Translated from Vodnye Resursy, Vol. 32, No. 4, 2005, pp. 452–458.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Dolgonosov, Korchagin.     

Discrete dynamic-stochastic model of long-term river runoff variations

A model of long-term river runoff variations is proposed. The model is based on a difference stochastic equation of water balance on a watershed. Precipitation and evaporation on the watershed are simulated by stochastic, dependent, non-Gaussian Markov processes. Long-term river runoff variations are described by a component of three-dimensional non-Gaussian Markov process. It is shown that the autocorrelation and skewness coefficients for river runoff can be negative. The proposed model can be used to assess the effect of climate-induced variations in precipitation and evaporation regimes in a watershed on long-term river runoff variations.     

Modeling variations in salt composition components of river water

The balance of a component contained in river water is considered taking into account its input with lateral inflow and decay in the aquatic environment. Random changes in lateral inflow causes fluctuations in the parameters of component input and decay. A stochastic equation of component balance is derived and used as the basis for the construction of an equation for the probability density of component concentration. The solution of this equation shows that the probability density follows lognormal law. This theoretical result is applicable to the analysis of time series of water salt composition components, including pH, alkalinity, chlorides, ammonia, iron, and aluminum. The applicability of the lognormal law is proved and distribution parameters are evaluated. The distributions of three components (pH, alkalinity, and chlorides) are found to split into two lognormal branches, describing high and low component concentrations. In the case of pH and alkalinity, this splitting is due to seasonal effects, while in the case of chlorides, it is caused by the difference between concentrations in the surface runoff at the early and final stages of snow melting and rainfalls. The application of the statistical distributions for probabilistic forecasting of extreme component concentrations is considered. The exceedance probability of standard limits of the components is considered. The use of exceedance probability in hydrochemical standardization is demonstrated.     

Use of Radar Information on Atmospheric Precipitation in Applied Hydrology

Methods of the use of radar information in applied hydrology (in particular, for calculation of runoff probability) are developed. Examples of treatment and statistical analysis of such information are presented. Operations with matrices of precipitation fields obtained with the help of radars are described. Examples of probability estimation for different precipitation gradations and the quantization of precipitation fields are given. Prospects for application of the limiting intensity method in runoff calculations are discussed. Different procedures are proposed to improve the calculation method for the maximum specific rate of rainfall runoff from small river basins, with the allowance made for the statistics of spatial distributions of the initial variables and parameters.     

A distributed analysis of lateral inflows in an Alaskan Arctic watershed underlain by continuous permafrost

Lateral inflows control the spatial distribution of river discharge, and understanding their patterns is fundamental for accurately modelling instream flows and travel time distributions necessary for evaluating impacts of climate change on aquatic habitat suitability, river energy budgets, and fate of dissolved organic carbon. Yet, little is known about the spatial distribution of lateral inflows in Arctic rivers given the lack of gauging stations. With a network of stream gauging and meteorological stations within the Kuparuk River watershed in northern Alaska, we estimated precipitation and lateral inflows for nine subcatchments from 1 July to 4 August,2013, 2014, and 2015. Total precipitation, lateral inflows, runoff ratios (area-normalized lateral inflow divided by precipitation), percent contribution to total basin discharge, and lateral inflow per river kilometre were estimated for each watershed for relatively dry, moderate, or wet summers. The results show substantial variability between years and subcatchments. Total basin lateral inflow depths ranged 24-fold in response to a threefold change in rainfall between dry and wet years, whereas within-basin lateral inflows varied fivefold from the coastal plain to the foothills. General spatial trends in lateral inflows were consistent with previous studies and mean summer precipitation patterns. However, the spatially distributed nature of these estimates revealed that reaches in the vicinity of a spring-fed surficial ice feature do not follow general spatial trends and that the coastal plain, which is typically considered to produce minimal runoff, showed potential to contribute to total river discharge. These findings are used to provide a spatially distributed understanding of lateral inflows and identify watershed characteristics that influence hydrologic responses.     

Fuzzy computing based rainfall–runoff model for real time flood forecasting

This paper analyses the skills of fuzzy computing based rainfall–runoff model in real time flood forecasting. The potential of fuzzy computing has been demonstrated by developing a model for forecasting the river flow of Narmada basin in India. This work has demonstrated that fuzzy models can take advantage of their capability to simulate the unknown relationships between a set of relevant hydrological data such as rainfall and river flow. Many combinations of input variables were presented to the model with varying structures as a sensitivity study to verify the conclusions about the coherence between precipitation, upstream runoff and total watershed runoff. The most appropriate set of input variables was determined, and the study suggests that the river flow of Narmada behaves more like an autoregressive process. As the precipitation is weighted only a little by the model, the last time‐steps of measured runoff are dominating the forecast. Thus a forecast based on expected rainfall becomes very inaccurate. Although good results for one‐step‐ahead forecasts are received, the accuracy deteriorates as the lead time increases. Using the one‐step‐ahead forecast model recursively to predict flows at higher lead time, however, produces better results as opposed to different independent fuzzy models to forecast flows at various lead times. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multivariate hydrologic time series analysis

The objective of this study is to establish a multivariate watershed hydrologic system model involving meteorological data as the input and river flow as the output of the system. Monthly hydrological time series of runoff, temperature and precipitation were selected for analysis. A first-order autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) transfer function model was found adequate to describe the multivariate watershed hydrologic system for the monthly runoff and meteorological time series. The results also indicated that the coordinated use of the meteorological and hydrometric data would enhance the accuracy of estimation of runoff characteristics.     

Hydrochemical and sedimentary responses of paired High Arctic watersheds to unusual climate and permafrost disturbance,Cape Bounty,Melville Island,Canada

High Arctic river responses to changing hydroclimatic and landscape processes are poorly understood. In non‐glacierized basins, snowmelt and rainfall generate river discharge, which provides first order control over fluxes. Further factors include the seasonality of precipitation, seasonal active layer development, and permafrost disturbance. These controls were evaluated in terms of sedimentary and biogeochemical fluxes from paired catchments at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, Nunavut during 2006–2009. Results indicate that the source of runoff can be more important than the amount of runoff for sediment, solutes, and organic yields. Although the snowmelt period is typically the most important time for these yields, heavy late summer precipitation events can create disproportionately large yields. Rainfall increases yields because it hydrologically connects areas otherwise isolated. Inorganic solute yields from late summer rainfall are higher because the thick active layer maximizes hydrologic interactions with mineral soils and generates high solute concentrations. Results also indicate that while the catchments are broadly similar, subtle topographic differences result in important inter‐catchment differences in runoff and suspended and dissolved loads. The East watershed, which had less extensive permafrost disturbance, consistently had higher concentrations of dissolved solids. These higher dissolved fluxes cannot therefore be explained by thermokarst features, but rather by deeper active layer development, due to a greater proportion of south‐facing slopes. Although warm temperatures in 2007 led to extensive active layer disturbance in the West watershed, because the disturbances were largely hydrologically disconnected, the total disturbed area was small, and inter‐annual variability in discharge was high, there was no detectable response in dissolved loads to disturbances. Sediment availability increased after 2007, but yields have largely returned to pre‐disturbance levels. Results indicate that seasonality and frequency‐magnitude characteristics of projected increases in precipitation must be considered along with active layer changes to predict the fluvial sedimentary and biogeochemical response to regional climate change. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis on the streamflow components of the typical inland river,Northwest China

ABSTRACT

Runoff generation and dynamics is an important issue in watershed and water resource management. Taking the Aksu River as a typical inland river, the spatial and temporal variations of δ¹⁸O and δD of the river water and its sources component pattern were investigated from May 2012 to May 2013. The results showed the following three main findings. Firstly, we analysed the runoff generation and mechanism over a longer time-scale in two tributaries of the Aksu River. Secondly, 46–54% of the runoff in the Aksu River was derived from groundwater, 31–36% from glacier meltwater, 5–8.8% from snow meltwater and 10% from precipitation. The third major finding was the significant inconsistency of the climate change impact on water resources. Specifically, our results showed that the Toxkan River is recharged by more glacier meltwater (36%), and responds to sensitive temperature changes. Autumn runoff is more sensitive to changes of precipitation and temperature.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor Not assigned     

Stormwater control impacts on runoff volume and peak flow: A meta-analysis of watershed modelling studies

Decades of research has concluded that the percent of impervious surface cover in a watershed is strongly linked to negative impacts on urban stream health. Recently, there has been a push by municipalities to offset these effects by installing structural stormwater control measures (SCMs), which are landscape features designed to retain and reduce runoff to mitigate the effects of urbanisation on event hydrology. The goal of this study is to build generalisable relationships between the level of SCM implementation in urban watersheds and resulting changes to hydrology. A literature review of 185 peer-reviewed studies of watershed-scale SCM implementation across the globe was used to identify 52 modelling studies suitable for a meta-analysis to build statistical relationships between SCM implementation and hydrologic change. Hydrologic change is quantified as the percent reduction in storm event runoff volume and peak flow between a watershed with SCMs relative to a (near) identical control watershed without SCMs. Results show that for each additional 1% of SCM-mitigated impervious area in a watershed, there is an additional 0.43% reduction in runoff and a 0.60% reduction in peak flow. Values of SCM implementation required to produce a change in water quantity metrics were identified at varying levels of probability. For example, there is a 90% probability (high confidence) of at least a 1% reduction in peak flow with mitigation of 33% of impervious surfaces. However, as the reduction target increases or mitigated impervious surface decreases, the probability of reaching the reduction target also decreases. These relationships can be used by managers to plan SCM implementation at the watershed scale.     

Comparison of different methods describing the peak runoff contributing areas during floods

In the last few years, the scientific community has developed several hydrological models aimed at the simulation of hydrological processes acting at the basin scale. In this context, the portion of peak runoff contributing areas represents a critical variable for a correct estimate of surface runoff. Such areas are strongly influenced by the saturated portion of a river basin (influenced by antecedent conditions) but may also evolve during a specific rainfall event. In the recent years, we have developed 2 theoretically derived probability distributions that attempt to interpret these 2 processes adopting daily runoff and flood‐peak time series. The probability density functions (PDFs) obtained by these 2 schematisations were compared for humid river basins in southern Italy. Results highlighted that the PDFs of the peak runoff contributing areas can be interpreted by a gamma distribution and that the PDF of the relative saturated area provides a good interpretation of such process that can be used for flood prediction.     

SEDIMENT YIELD MODELING FOR SINGLE STORM EVENTS BASED ON HEAVY-DISCHARGE STAGE CHARACTERIZED BY STABLE SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION

The relation between runoff volume and sediment yield for individual events in a given watershed receives little attention compared to the relation between water discharge and sediment yield, though it may underlie the event-based sediment-yield model for large-size watershed. The data observed at 12 experimental subwatersheds in the Dalihe river watershed in hilly areas of Loess Plateau, North China, was selected to develop and validate the relation. The peak flow is often considered as an important factor affecting event sediment yield. However, in the study areas, sediment concentration remains relatively constant when water discharge exceeds a certain critical value, implying that the heavier flow is not accompanied with the higher sediment transport capacity. Hence, only the runoff volume factor was considered in the sediment-yield model. As both the total sediment and runoff discharge were largely produced during the heavy-discharge stage, and the sediment concentration was negligibly variable during this stage, a proportional function can be used to model the relation between event runoff volume and sediment yield for a given subwatershed. The applicability of this model at larger spatial scales was also discussed, and it was found that for the Yaoxinzhuang station at the Puhe River basin, which controls a drainage area of 2264km2, a directly proportional relation between event runoff volume and sediment yield may also exist.     

Drifting runoff periodicity during the 20th century due to changing surface water volume

Fourier and wavelet analyses were used to reveal the dominant trends and coherence of a more than one‐century‐long time series of precipitation and discharge in several watersheds in Sweden, two of which were subjected to hydropower and intensive agriculture. During the 20th century, there was a gradual, significant drift of the dominant discharge periodicity in agricultural watersheds. This study shows that the steepness of the Fourier spectrum of runoff from the May to October period each year increased gradually during the century, which suggests a more predictable intra‐annual runoff pattern (more apart from white‐noise). In the agricultural watershed, the coherence spectrum of precipitation and runoff is generally high with a consistent white‐noise relationship for precipitation during the 20th century, indicating that precipitation is not controlling the drift of the discharge spectrum. In the hydropower regulated watershed, there was a sudden decrease of the discharge spectrum slope when regulation commenced in the 1920s. This study develops a new theory in which the runoff spectrum is related to the hydraulic and hydro‐morphological characteristics of the watershed. Using this theory, we explain the changes in runoff spectra in the two watersheds by the anthropogenic change in surface water volume and, hence, changes in kinematic wave celerity and water transit times. The reduced water volume in the agricultural watershed would also contribute to decreasing evaporation, which could explain a slightly increasing mean discharge during the 20th century despite the fact that precipitation was statistically constant in the area. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a grid‐based version of the SWAT landscape model

Integrated river basin models should provide a spatially distributed representation of basin hydrology and transport processes to allow for spatially implementing specific management and conservation measures. To accomplish this, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was modified by integrating a landscape routing model to simulate water flow across discretized routing units. This paper presents a grid‐based version of the SWAT landscape model that has been developed to enhance the spatial representation of hydrology and transport processes. The modified model uses a new flow separation index that considers topographic features and soil properties to capture channel and landscape flow processes related to specific landscape positions. The resulting model is spatially fully distributed and includes surface, lateral and groundwater fluxes in each grid cell of the watershed. Furthermore, it more closely represents the spatially heterogeneous distributed flow and transport processes in a watershed. The model was calibrated and validated for the Little River Watershed (LRW) near Tifton, Georgia (USA). Water balance simulations as well as the spatial distribution of surface runoff, subsurface flow and evapotranspiration are examined. Model results indicate that groundwater flow is the dominant landscape process in the LRW. Results are promising, and satisfactory output was obtained with the presented grid‐based SWAT landscape model. Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiencies for daily stream flow were 0.59 and 0.63 for calibration and validation periods, and the model reasonably simulates the impact of the landscape position on surface runoff, subsurface flow and evapotranspiration. Additional revision of the model will likely be necessary to adequately represent temporal variations of transport and flow processes in a watershed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes in streamflow regimes and their responses to different soil and water conservation measures in the Loess Plateau watersheds,China

Investigating the changes in streamflow regimes in response to various influencing factors contributes to our understanding of the mechanisms of hydrological processes in different watersheds and to water resource management strategies. This study examined streamflow regime changes by applying the indicators of hydrologic alteration method and eco-flow metrics to daily runoff data (1965–2016) from the Sandu, Hulu and Dali Rivers on the Chinese Loess Plateau, and then determined their responses to terracing, afforestation and damming. The Budyko water balance equation and the double mass curve method were used to separate the impacts of climate change and human activities on the mean discharge changes. The results showed that the terraced and dammed watersheds exhibited significant decreases in annual runoff. All hydrologic metrics indicated that the highest degree of hydrologic alteration was in the Sandu River watershed (terraced), where the monthly and extreme flows reduced significantly. In contrast, the annual eco-deficit increased significantly, indicating the highest reduction in streamflow among the three watersheds. The regulation of dams and reservoirs in the Dali River watershed has altered the flow regime, and obvious decreases in the maximum flow and slight increases in the minimum flow and baseflow indices were observed. In the Hulu River watershed (afforested), the monthly flow and extreme flows decreased slightly and were categorized as low-degree alteration, indicating that the long-term delayed effects of afforestation on hydrological processes. The magnitude of the eco-flow metrics varied with the alteration of annual precipitation. Climate change contributed 67.47% to the runoff reduction in the Hulu River watershed, while human activities played predominant roles in reducing runoff in the Sandu and Dali River watersheds. The findings revealed distinct patterns and causes of streamflow regime alteration due to different conservation measures, emphasizing the need to optimize the spatial allocation of measures to control soil erosion and utilize water resources on the Loess Plateau.     

Estimating Runoff Using Hydro-Geodetic Approaches

Given the continuous decline in global runoff data availability over the past decades, alternative approaches for runoff determination are gaining importance. When aiming for global scale runoff at a sufficient temporal resolution and with homogeneous accuracy, the choice to use spaceborne sensors is only a logical step. In this respect, we take water storage changes from Gravity Recovery And Climate Explorer (grace) results and water level measurements from satellite altimetry, and present a comprehensive assessment of five different approaches for river runoff estimation: hydrological balance equation, hydro-meteorological balance equation, satellite altimetry with quantile function-based stage–discharge relationships, a rudimentary instantaneous runoff–precipitation relationship, and a runoff–storage relationship that takes time lag into account. As a common property, these approaches do not rely on hydrological modeling; they are either purely data driven or make additional use of atmospheric reanalyses. Further, these methods, except runoff–precipitation ratio, use geodetic observables as one of their inputs and, therefore, they are termed hydro-geodetic approaches. The runoff prediction skill of these approaches is validated against in situ runoff and compared to hydrological model predictions. Our results show that catchment-specific methods (altimetry and runoff–storage relationship) clearly outperform the global methods (hydrological and hydro-meteorological approaches) in the six study regions we considered. The global methods have the potential to provide runoff over all landmasses, which implies gauged and ungauged basins alike, but are still limited due to inconsistencies in the global hydrological and hydro-meteorological datasets that they use.     

Infiltration in the Corgo River basin (northern Portugal): coupling water balances with rainfall—runoff regressions on a monthly basis

Abstract

A combination of water balances and rainfall—runoff regressions is used to calculate infiltration, overland flow, baseflow and change to the surface water reservoir, on a monthly basis; evapotranspiration from the underground reservoir, on an annual basis; and a lag phase of maximum infiltration and maximum baseflow within a hydrological year. The water balance equations are written for catchment areas formed on crystalline rocks and located in temperate climates. The regression lines are fitted to precipitations and river flows. In a first run, the model is tested with the Corgo River hydrographic basin, a small watershed in the Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro province, northern Portugal. The results compare favourably with results of other groups, working under similar environmental conditions. The sensitivity of the model to changes in the basin characteristics and climate is tested by a second run using data from the Terva River basin, a nearby catchment that is much smaller than the Corgo basin and has a much lower effective precipitation, defined here as a difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. As a consequence of having a lower effective precipitation, the river dry-out starts earlier in the Terva (May) than in the Corgo (June).     

Phosphorus storage,transport and export dynamics in the Foron River watershed

Phosphorus (P) export from the Foron River watershed was intensively monitored. Water was analysed for total P, soluble total P, soluble orthophosphate and suspended solids. Watershed soils and river sediments were sampled and the size fraction <0·2 mm analysed for total P, water extractable P, bioavailable P, 1 minute exchangeable P and P fixation capacity. Interstitial waters were analysed for soluble total P. Four hydrological conditions recurred, two during low river flows and two during increased flow. The first occurs in dry weather with a constant or decreasing flow over at least seven days and when there is no surface runoff. Exported phosphorus, predominately soluble and bioavailable, is from point sources. Phosphorus inputs exceed P export so P accumulates in the river. The second condition occurs when a small storm flow increases the average seven-day flow to exceed the preceding weekly average. Phosphorus export exceeds P inputs and originates from urban runoff, point sources and release of P stored in the river. Exported P is largely particulate but highly bioavailable. The third condition is when substantial runoff follows at least a seven-day period of constant or decreasing flow. Phosphorus export is from diffuse urban runoff. All the P stored is exported. Exported P is highly bioavailable. High concentrations and fluxes of P export are often seen. The fourth condition happens when the soils are wet and increased flow is from both urban and agricultural runoff. Phosphorus export from diffuse agricultural runoff predominates and is largely not bioavailable. Phosphorus concentrations are low but export fluxes are high when flows are high. These hydrological conditions, when integrated with concepts of mass balance define a phosphorus export typology comprising four regimes. These regimes explain total phosphorus (TP) storage, transport and export patterns, changes in P speciation and allow identification of probable sources of TP in the Foron river watershed. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.