Climate-driven acceleration of glacier mass loss on global and regional scales during 1961–2016

During the past decades, glacier mass loss is becoming increasingly significant worldwide but knowledge about the acceleration is still limited despite its potentially profound impacts on sea level rise, water resources availability and glacial hazards. In this study, we analyzed the acceleration of glacier mass loss based on in-situ measurements and on the latest compilation dataset of direct and geodetic observations for the period 1961–2016. The results showed that the rate of glacier mass loss has increased worldwide during the past decades. At the global scale, the rate of glacier mass loss has been accelerating at 5.76±1.35 Gt a-2 as well as 0.0074±0.0016 m w.e.a-2 on mass balance(refer to the area-averaged mass change value) during the whole period. At regional scales, for mass change rate, the heavily glacierized regions excluding Antarctic and Subantarctic exhibited a larger acceleration compared to other regions. The highest acceleration of mass change was found in Alaska glaciers(1.33±0.47 Gt a-2) over the full period. As for mass balance, high acceleration occurred on the regions with small glaciers as well as on the heavily glacierized regions. Central Europe exhibited the highest acceleration(0.024±0.0088 m w.e.a-2) during 1961–2016. High level of consistency between the acceleration and temperature implies that climate warming had a significant effect on the accelerating of glacier mass loss. Moreover, acceleration of the contribution from the Greenland ice sheet(0.028 to0.070 mm a-2) and Antarctic ice sheet(0.023 to 0.058 mm a-2) to sea level rise exceeds acceleration of the contribution from global glaciers(0.019±0.013 mm a-2). These results will improve our understanding of the glacier retreat in response to climate change and provide critical information for improving mitigation strategies for impacts that may be caused by glacier melting.     

A distributed scheme developed for eco-hydrological modeling in the upper Heihe River

Modeling the hydrological processes at catchment scale requires a flexible distributed scheme to represent the catchment topography,river network and vegetation pattern.This study has developed a distributed scheme for eco-hydrological simulation in the upper Heihe River.Based on a 1 km×1 km grid system,the study catchment is divided into 461 sub-catchments,whose main streams form the streamflow pathway.Furthermore,a 1 km grid is represented by a number of topographically similar"hillslope-valley"systems,and the hillslope is the basic unit of the eco-hydrological simulation.This model is tested with a simplified hydrological simulation focusing on soil-water dynamics and streamflow routing.Based on a 12-year simulation from 2001 to 2012,it is found that variability in hydrological behavior is closely associated with climatic and landscape conditions especially vegetation types.The subsurface and groundwater flows dominate the total river runoff.This implies that the soil freezing and thawing process would significantly influence the runoff generation in the upper Heihe basin.Furthermore,the runoff components and water balance characteristics vary among different vegetation types,showing the importance of coupling the vegetation pattern into catchment hydrological simulation.This paper also discusses the model improvement to be done in future study.     

Runoff reduction due to environmental changes in the Sanchuanhe river basin

Recently, runoff in many river basins in China has been decreasing. Therefore, the role that climate change and human activities are playing in this decrease is currently of interest. In this study, we evaluated an assessment method that was designed to quantitatively separate the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in river basins. Specifically, we calibrated the SIMHYD rainfall runoff model using naturally recorded hydro-meteorologic data pertaining to the Sanchuanhe River basin and then determined the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff by comparing the estimated natural runoff that occurred during the period in which humans disturbed the basin to the runoff that occurred during the period prior to disturbance by humans. The results of this study revealed that the S1MHYD rainfall runoff model performs well for estimating monthly discharge. In addition, we found that absolute runoff reductions have increased in response to human activities and climate change, with average reductions of 70.1% and 29.9% in total runoff being caused by human activities and climate change, respectively. Taken together, the results of this study indicate that human activities are the primary cause of runoff reduction in the Sanchuanhe River basin.     

Research on runoff forecast approaches to the Aksu River basin

The Aksu River (the international river between China and Kirghiz) has become the main water source for the Tarim River. It significantly influences the Tarim River's formation, development and evolution. Along with the western region development strategy and the Tarim River basin comprehensive devel-opment and implementation, the research is now focused on the Aksu River basin hydrologic charac-teristic and hydrologic forecast. Moreover, the Aksu River is representative of rivers supplied with gla-cier and snow melt in middle-high altitude arid district. As a result, the research on predicting the river flow of the Aksu River basin has theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, considering the limited hydrometeorological data for the Aksu River basin, we have constructed four hydrologic forecast approaches using the daily scale to simulate and forecast daily runoff of two big branches of the Aksu River basin. The four approaches are the upper air temperature and the daily runoff correlation method, AR(p) runoff forecast model, temperature and precipitation revised AR(p) model and the NAM rainfall-runoff model. After comparatively analyzing the simulation results of the four approaches, we discovered that the temperature and precipitation revised AR(p) model, which needs less hydrological and meteorological data and is more predictive, is suitable for the short-term runoff forecast of the Aksu River basin. This research not only offers a foundation for the Aksu River and Tarim Rivers' hydrologic forecast, flood prevention, control and the entire basin water collocation, but also provides the hydrologic forecast reference approach for other arid ungauged basins.     

Study on snowmelt runoff simulation in the Kaidu River basin

Alpine snowmelt is an important generation mode for runoff in the source region of the Tarim River basin, which covers four subbasins characterized by large area, sparse gauge stations, mixed runoff supplied by snowmelt and rainfall, and remarkably spatially heterogeneous precipitation. Taking the Kaidu River basin as a research area, this study analyzes the influence of these characteristics on the variables and parameters of the Snow Runoff Model and discusses the corresponding determination strategy to improve the accuracy of snowmelt simulation and forecast. The results show that: (i) The temperature controls the overall tendency of simulated runoff and is dominant to simulation accuracy, as the measured daily mean temperature cannot represent the average level of the same elevation in the basin and that directly inputting it to model leads to inaccurate simulations. Based on the analysis of remote sensing snow maps and simulation results, it is reasonable to approximate the mean temperature with 0.5 time daily maximum temperature. (ii) For the conflict between the limited gauge sta-tion and remarkably spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, it is not realistic to compute rainfall for each elevation zone. After the measured rainfall is multiplied by a proper coefficient and adjusted with runoff coefficient for rainfall, the measured rainfall data can satisfy the model demands. (iii) Adjusting time lag according to the variation of snowmelt and rainfall position can improve the simulation precision of the flood peak process. (iv) Along with temperature, the rainfall increases but cannot be completely monitored by limited gauge stations, which results in precision deterioration.     

Contributions of climate and human activities to changes in runoff of the Yellow and Yangtze rivers from 1950 to 2008

Runoffs in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins,China,have been changing constantly during the last half century.In this paper,data from eight river gauging stations and 529 meteorological stations,inside and adjacent to the study basins,were analyzed and compared to quantify the hydrological processes involved,and to evaluate the role of human activities in changing river discharges.The Inverse Distance Weighted(IDW)interpolation method was used to obtain climatic data coverage from station observations.According to the runoff coefficient equation,the effect of human activities and climate can be expressed by changes in runoff coefficients and changes in precipitation,respectively.Annual runoff coefficients were calculated for the period 1950-2008,according to the correlation between respective hydrological series and regional precipitation.Annual precipitation showed no obvious trend in the upper reaches of the Yellow River but a marked downward trend in the middle and downstream reaches,with declines of 8.8 and 9.8 mm/10 a,respectively.All annual runoff series for the Yellow River basin showed a significant downward trend.Runoff declined by about 7.8 mm/10 a at Sanmenxia and 10.8 mm/10 a at Lijin.The series results indicated that an abrupt change occurred in the late 1980s to early 1990s.The trend of correlations between annual runoff and precipitation decreased significantly at the Yellow River stations,with rates ranging from 0.013/10 a to 0.019/10 a.For the hydrologic series,all precipitation series showed a downward trend in the Yangtze River basin with declines ranging from about 24.7 mm/10 a at Cuntan to 18.2 mm/10 a at Datong.Annual runoff series for the upper reaches of the Yangtze River decreased significantly,at rates ranging from 9.9 to 7.2 mm/10 a.In the middle and lower reaches,the runoff series showed no significant trend,with rates of change ranging from 2.1 to 2.9 mm/10 a.Human activities had the greatest influence on changes in the hydrological series of runoff,regardless of whether the effect was negative or positive.During 1970-2008,human activities contributed to 83% of the reduction in runoff in the Yellow River basin,and to 71% of the increase in runoff in the Yangtze River basin.Moreover,the impacts of human activities across the entire basin increased over time.In the 2000s,the impact of human activities exceeded that of climate change and was responsible for 84% of the decrease and 73% of the increase in runoff in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins,respectively.The average annual runoff from 1980 to 2008 fell by about 97%,83%,83%,and 91%,compared with 1951-1969,at the Yellow River stations Lanzhou,Sanmenxia,Huayuankou and Lijin,respectively.Most of the reduction in runoff was caused by human activities.Changes in precipitation also caused reductions in runoff of about 3%,17%,17%,and 9% at these four stations,respectively.Falling precipitation rates were the main explanation for runoff changes at the Yangtze River stations Cuntan,Yichang,Hankou,and Datong,causing reductions in runoff of 89%,74%,43%,and 35%,respectively.Underlying surface changes caused decreases in runoff in the Yellow River basin and increases in runoff in the Yangtze River basin.Runoff decreased in arid areas as a result of increased water usage,but increased in humid and sub-humid areas as a result of land reclamation and mass urbanization leading to decreases in evaporation and infiltration.     

EVALUATION OF EROSION PRODUCTIVITY IMPACT CALCULATOR （EPIC） MODEL FOR MIDDLE MOUNTAIN REGION OF NEPAL

This study verifies the applicability of EPIC model for an erosion plot (61 .2 m~2) and an uplandterraced watershed (72 ha) using a total of 94 rainfall events over a study period of two years. Inorder to analyze the effect of storm size on runoff and soil loss processes, rainfall events aredivided into three groups: small (<25mm), moderate (25--50mm) and large (>50mm). Resultsindicate that the model could predict reasonably well the runoff and soil loss from the erosion plotand the watershed for the moderate and large rainfall events. However, the runoff and soil lossprediction for the small rainfall events is found to be poor. On annual basis, both surface runoff andsoil loss predictions match well the observations. In ligh of the importance of the moderate andlarge rainfall events in producing most of the annual runoff and soil loss in the study area, the EPICmodel is applied to assess the impacts of erosion on agricultural productivity and to evaluatemanagement practices to protect watersheds in the     

SWAT-based runoff and sediment simulation in a small watershed,the loessial hilly-gullied region of China:capabilities and challenges

Model calibration and validation are necessary before applying it for scenario assessment and watershed management.This study presented the methodology of evaluating Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) and tested the feasibility of SWAT on runoff and sediment load simulation in the Zhifanggou watershed located in hilly-gullied region of China.Daily runoff and sediment event data from 1998-2008 were used in this study;data from 1998-2003 were used for calibration and 2004-2008 for validation.The evaluation statistics for the daily runoff simulation showed that the model results were acceptable,but the model underestimated the runoff for high-flow events.For sediment load simulation,the SWAT performed well in capturing the trend of sediment load,while the model tended to underestimate sediment load during both the calibration and validation periods. The disparity between observed and simulated data most likely resulted from limitations of the existing SCS-CN and MUSLE methods in the model.This study indicated that the modification of SWAT components is needed to take rainfall intensity and its duration into account to enhance the model performance on peak flow and sediment load simulation during heavy rainfall season.     

Ocean contributes to the melting of the Jakobshavn Glacier front

The Jakobshavn Glacier(JG)in Greenland is one of the most active glaciers in the world.It was close to balance before 1997 but this was followed by a sudden transition to rapid thinning.The reason for the change remains unclear.In this study,The NASA Pre-IceBridge ice thickness data are collected to monitor the melting of JG front.The surface elevation decreased by around 90 m from 1995 to 2002 on the floating front.A distributed energy balance model is developed to estimate the energy balance of JG front in the past 30 years(1986-2016).The results indicate that multi-year average energy fluxes absorbed by the floating front of JG from the ocean were about 500 Wm^-2 from 1986 to 2016.This is approximately two times of the energy fluxes from atmosphere during the same period.The energy fluxes from the ocean increased from 200 to 600 Wm^-2during the period from 1990 to 1998 while energy fluxes from the atmosphere remained stable at about 250 Wm^-2.These results demonstrate that ocean contributes more to the melting of the JG front,and suggest that bottom surface melting must have a profound influence on marine-terminating glacier dynamics.     

SEDIMENT YIELD MODELING FOR SINGLE STORM EVENTS BASED ON HEAVY-DISCHARGE STAGE CHARACTERIZED BY STABLE SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION

The relation between runoff volume and sediment yield for individual events in a given watershed receives little attention compared to the relation between water discharge and sediment yield, though it may underlie the event-based sediment-yield model for large-size watershed. The data observed at 12 experimental subwatersheds in the Dalihe river watershed in hilly areas of Loess Plateau, North China, was selected to develop and validate the relation. The peak flow is often considered as an important factor affecting event sediment yield. However, in the study areas, sediment concentration remains relatively constant when water discharge exceeds a certain critical value, implying that the heavier flow is not accompanied with the higher sediment transport capacity. Hence, only the runoff volume factor was considered in the sediment-yield model. As both the total sediment and runoff discharge were largely produced during the heavy-discharge stage, and the sediment concentration was negligibly variable during this stage, a proportional function can be used to model the relation between event runoff volume and sediment yield for a given subwatershed. The applicability of this model at larger spatial scales was also discussed, and it was found that for the Yaoxinzhuang station at the Puhe River basin, which controls a drainage area of 2264km2, a directly proportional relation between event runoff volume and sediment yield may also exist.     

Loess erosion change modeling during heavy rainfall

A typical gully sub-basin with a complex geomorphological form is used to do a model test of gravity erosion of loess by considering the sequence of slopes in a prototype gully creating a sequence of underlying surface forms in the upper reaches. The results show that the runoff from heavy rainfall is the main external force for the erosion of loess, and also is an important influencing factor to stimulate and intensify the development of gravity erosion. The soil structure and the height of the...     

Thermospheric mass density derived from CHAMP satellite precise orbit determination data based on energy balance method

In this article, the energy balance method is used to retrieve thermospheric mass density from CHAMP satellite precise orbit determination(POD) data during 2007–2009. The retrieved thermospheric mass densities are compared with those from accelerometer data and an empirical model. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) Thermospheric mass density can be retrieved from POD data by the energy balance and semi-major axis decay methods, whose results are consistent.(2) The accuracy of the retrieved densities depends on the integration time period, and the optimal period for CHAMP density retrieval from POD data is about 20 minutes.(3) The energy balance method can be used to calibrate accelerometer data.(4) The accuracy of retrieving thermospheric density from POD data varies with satellite altitude and local time.     

Sediment load reduction in Chinese rivers

In this paper, the changes in the annual runoff and sediment transport have been assessed by using the long term observation data from 10 gauging stations on 10 large rivers across China from far north to far south. It is found that the annual sediment yield has generally had a decreasing trend in the past half century. According to the changes in annual runoff and the sediment yield per area, rivers in China can be classified into the following three groups： 1） rivers with decreasing annual sediment transport and stable runoff; 2） rivers with both decreasing annual sediment transport and runoff and 3） rivers with greatly reduced annual sediment transport and decreasing annual runoff. The results indicate that, in all southern rivers （to the south of the Huaihe River including the Huaihe River）, there has been little change in average annual runoff but a dramatic decrease in annual sediment transport. In the northern rivers, however, both the annual sediment yield and the runoff show significant evidence of reduction. To further investigate the recent changes in annual runoff and sediment transport, the short-term observation data from these 10 gauging stations in the recent 10 years have been assessed. Results show that both the annual sediment transport and the runoff have decreased＂ significantly in the northern rivers in the past 10 years. Using the Yellow River at the Lijin Station as an example, the average annual runoff for the last 10 years is only 1/3 of the long term average value and the average annual sediment yield of the last 10 years is only 1/4 of the long term average value. More unusually, in the Yongding River the annual sediment yield has approached zero and the runoff has decreased significantly. In addition, the impacts of human activities on the changes in both runoff and sediment transport have been discussed.     

Simulated multi-scale watershed runoff and sediment production based on GeoWEPP model

The runoff and sediment yield data from the Qiaozidonggou, Qiaozixigou, and Lu＇ergou watersheds, in the Loess Plateau of China are used to calibrate and validate the runoff and sediment yield simulated by GeoWEPP model of the WEPP Model at watershed scale. The indices of relative error, R, correlation coefficient, Re, and Nash-Suttcliffe efficiency coefficient Ens are used to evaluate the model fit. The eco-hydrological responses in the Luoyugou and Lu＇ergou watersheds are also forecast based on the WEPP Model. Meanwhile, the relation between vegetation pattern changes and sediment yield in the watershed is discussed, and the responses of runoff and sediment yield in the watersheds concerning forest growth stages are studied. The results show that the relative errors of simulated values of runoff and sediment yield are below 30%, the correlation coefficients axe above 0.90, and the Nash-Suttcliffe efficiency coefficients axe above 0.80. The simulation results present satisfactory performance, thus, the model could be used to simulate the runoff and sediment yield in these small watersheds. It is also observed that soil erosion tended to become severe as precipitation increased in the watershed, while soil erosion has a decreasing trend as forest cover increases and vegetation pattern is optimized. When the watershed is fully covered by forest, erosion and sediment yield are minimized. When the forest cover is about 30% and evenly distributed in the watershed, the erosion intensity is lower than if the forest cover is collectively distributed in the watershed. Erosion varies with different forest growth stages in the watershed; it is more serious at the young and near planting stage and is the smallest at the mature forest stage.     

A GIS-BASED DISTRIBUTED SOIL EROSION MODEL： A CASE STUDY OF TYPICAL WATERSHED, SICHUAN BASIN

Based on the measuring data and Digital Elevation Data (DEM) in a typical watershed--Hemingguan Watershed, Nanbu County, Sichuan Province of China, a GIS-based distributed soil erosion model was developed particularly for the purple soil type. It takes 20 m × 20 m grid as calculating unit and operates at 10-minute time interval. The required input data to the model include DEM, soil, land use, and time-series of precipitation and evaporation loss. The model enables one to estimate runoff, erosion and sediment yield for each grid cell and route the flow along its flow path to the watershed outlet. Furthermore, the model is capable of calculating the total runoff; erosion and sediment yield for the entire watershed by recursion algorithm. The validation of the model demonstrated that it could quantitatively simulate the spatial distribution of hydrological variables in a watershed, such as runoff, vegetation entrapment, soil erosion, the degree of soil and water loss. Moreover, it can evaluate the effect of land use change on the runoff generation and soil erosion with an accuracy of 80% and 75% respectively. The application of this model to a neighboring watershed with similar conditions indicates that this distributed model could be extended to other similar regions in China.     

Polar climate system modeling in China: Recent progress and future challenges

The first fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model developed in China was released in the mid-1990s. Since then, significant advances in climate system model developments have been achieved by improving the representations of major physical processes, increasing resolutions, and including an ice-shelf component. There have also been many modeling studies in China on the polar climate system, including weather and sea-ice numerical forecasts to meet the national needs of polar scientific expeditions, assessments of the state-of-the-art coupled model performance, and process-oriented studies. Future model developments and modeling activities will need to address several big scientific questions originating from the polar climate system: i) How will polar ice mass balance evolve and affect global sea level? ii) How can we properly simulate openocean deep convection and quantify its role in driving the lower branch of the global overturning circulation? iii) How are Arctic and Antarctic connected and what caused the contrasting sea ice trends in the two polar regions over the last decades? To address these questions, polar climate system modelers will need to analyze extended observational datasets on a global scale and work together with other polar researchers to develop a more comprehensive and sustainable observation system in the polar regions.     

Changes in sediment transport in the Kuye River in the Loess Plateau in China

In this paper, the changes in sediment transport over 51 years from 1955 to 2006 in the Kuye River in the Loess Plateau in China are assessed. Key factors affecting sediment yield and sediment transport, such as precipitation depth, discharge, and human activities are studied. To investigate the changes in sediment yield in this watershed, a trend analysis on sediment concentration, precipitation depth, and discharge is conducted. Precipitation depths at 2 Climate Stations （CSs）, as well as discharge and sediment transport at 3 Gauging Stations （GSs） are used to assess the features of sediment transport in the Kuye River. The rtmoff modulus （defined as the annual average discharge per unit area, L/（s·km^2）） and the sediment transport modulus （defined as the annual suspended sediment transport per unit area, t/（yr km^2）） are introduced in this study to assess the changes in runoff and sediment yield for this watershed. The results show that the highest average monthly discharge during the study period in the Kuye River is 66.23 m^3/s in August with an average monthly sediment concentration of 88.9 kg/m^3. However, the highest average monthly sediment concentration during the study period in the Kuye River is 125.34 kg/m^3 and occurs in July, which has an average discharge of 42.6 m^3/s that is much less than the average monthly discharge in August. It is found that both the runoff modulus and sediment transport modulus at Wenjiachuan GS on the Kuye River has a clear downward trend. During the summer season from July to August, the sediment transport modulus at Wenjiachuan GS is much higher than those at Toudaoguai and Longmen GSs on the Yellow River. The easily erodible loess in the Kuye River watershed and the sparse vegetation are responsible for the extremely high sediment yield from the Kuye River watershed. The analyses of the grain size distribution of suspended load in the Kuye River are presented. The average monthly median grain size of suspended load in the Kuye River is largest in February and then decreases until June. In July, the average monthly median grain size of suspended load approaches another peak and decreases until September. Then, the median grain size of suspended load starts to increase until February of the following year. However, the average monthly median grain size of suspended load in the Yellow River at Toudaoguai and Longmen GSs is the smallest between early summer and late fall The median grain size in the Yellow River starts to increase in November and approaches the largest size in January.     

Responses of streamflow to climate change in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang: A case study of the Toutun River basin

A case study on the responses of streamflow to climate change in the Toutun River basin was carried out based on data analysis of streamflow, precipitation, and temperatures during the past 50 years.Temporal series of the streamflow change in the Toutun River basin was analyzed and tested using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. Results revealed that the annual runoff of the Toutun River had been in a monotonic decreasing trend for the past 50 years. Compared with the 1950s and 1960s, the annual runoff in the 1990s decreased by 4.0×105 m3 and 7.2×105 m3. The precipitation did not show monotonic trend during the past 50 years, but the annual temperature increased by 1.12℃ since the 1950s. Further data analysis indicated that the monthly runoff of the Toutun River decreased significantly from August to October, with precipitation displaying the similar pattern of seasonal change. Analysis suggests that the reduction of streamflow in the Toutun River basin is possibly caused by the seasonal change of precipitation, especially the precipitation reduction in summer, and temperature increases.     

Glacial advances and ESR chronology of the Pochengzi Glaciation,Tianshan Mountains,China

The Pochengzi Glaciation is a typical glaciation in Quaternary in the Tianshan Mountains. The glacial landforms comprise several integrated end moraines, like a fan spreading from the north to the south at the mouth of the Muzhaerte River valley and on the piedmont on the southeastern slope of the Tumur Peak, the largest center of modern glaciation in the Tianshan Mountains. The landforms recorded a complex history of the ancient glacier change and contained considerable information of the glacial landscape evolution, and dating these landforms helps us understand the temporal and spatial shifts of the past cryosphere in this valley and reconstruct the paleoenvironment in this region. Electron spin resonance (ESR) dating of the glacial tills in the upper stratum from a well-exposed section, end moraines, and associated outwashes was carried out using Ge centers in quartz grains, which are sensitive to the sunlight and grinding. The results could be divided into three clusters, 13.6–25.3, 39.5–40.4 and 64.2–71.7 ka. Based on the principle of geomorphology and stratigraphy and the available paleoen- vironmental data from northwestern China, the end moraines were determined to deposit in the Last Glaciation. The landforms and the three clusters of ages demonstrate that at least three large glacial advances occurred during the Pochengzi Glaciation, which are corresponding to marine oxygen isotope stage 4 (MIS4), MIS3b and MIS2. The landforms also indicate that the gla- ciers were compound valley glacier in MIS2 and MIS3b and piedmont glacier in MIS4, and the ancient Muzhaerte glacier were 94, 95 and 99 km at their maximum extensions in these three glacial advances.