A numerical procedure for predicting rainfall‐induced movements of active landslides along pre‐existing slip surfaces

A numerical model to predict landslide movements along pre‐existing slip surfaces from rainfall data is presented. The model comprises: a transient seepage finite‐element analysis to compute the variations of pore water pressures due to rainfall; a limit equilibrium stability analysis to compute the factors of safety along the slip surface associated with transient pore pressure conditions; an empirical relationship between the factor of safety and the rate of displacement of the slide along the slip surface; an optimization algorithm for the calibration of analyses and relationships based on available monitoring data. The model is validated with reference to a well‐monitored active slide in central Italy, characterized by very slow movements occurring within a narrow band of weathered bedrock overlaid by a clayey silt colluvial cover. The model is conveniently divided and presented in two parts: a groundwater model and a kinematic model. In the first part, monthly recorded rainfall data are used as time‐dependent flow boundary conditions of the transient seepage analysis, while piezometric levels are used to calibrate the analysis by minimizing the errors between monitoring data and computed pore pressures. In the second part, measured inclinometric movements are used to calibrate the empirical relationship between the rate of displacement along the slip surface and the factor of safety, whose variation with time is computed by a time‐dependent stability analysis. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

爆破方法识别滑带试验研究

以往对滑坡体中软弱层与滑带的识别主要依赖于钻孔并辅之以工程师的经验。采用在钻孔中进行爆破的方法,通过对地表接收信号的波形分析即可十分方便地识别出软弱层与滑带。简要阐述了该方法的理论依据,通过对现场爆破实验测量信号的分析可以发现,该方法可以减少钻孔数量以及提高滑带识别的精度与效率。     

Evidence of a hidden landslide slip surface beneath a mountain hamlet

Earthquake-triggered landslides are some of the most destructive natural disasters. Although remote detection of landslides is economic and efficient, it may miss the more subtle signs of hidden landslides. The Kizawa Tunnel and facilities in its vicinity were severely damaged in the 2004 mid-Niigata Prefecture earthquake. After investigation of the most prominent cracks, the damage was attributed to the slip along a hidden weakness plane. Evidence supporting this argument is summarized in this paper. However, the extent of the shear plane is not limited to the interior of the northern part of the tunnel. The dislocation observed in the two wells to the south of the Kizawa Tunnel together with other findings from previous studies indicates that Kizawa hamlet lies on the southern extension of the same shear plane. Taking account of the presence of flat sedimentary structures, the shear plane may extend in all directions. The authors also surveyed other signs of damage along the perimeter where the shear plane intersects the ground surface. The geological and geomorphological features of the hidden landslide are discussed. Reactivation of interlayer sliding is a threat to the local residents, and thus more attention should be paid to monitoring the movement of the slope to avoid devastating damages.     

土质滑坡地表倾斜变形特征与基于MEMS的倾斜变形监测技术初探

随着现代信息技术快速发展,人们获取滑坡现场各类监测信息的能力越来越强,积累的现场监测数据也愈来愈多,如何充分、精细化地利用监测数据已成为滑坡监测预警工作中重点关注的问题。为此,本文以土质滑坡为研究对象,采用强度折减有限元方法开展地表倾斜变形时空演化特征理论研究,发现地表倾斜变形在滑动面扩展至贯通期间出现"速率排序跃迁"现象,在滑动面贯通后出现"速率突变"现象。采用地表倾斜变形与内部滑动面之间的这种定量化关联特性,可以为土质滑坡中短期预测预报方法研究提供新的视角和方向。利用理论研究成果,本文进一步开展地表倾斜变形监测关键技术研究,讨论基于MEMS加速度计的倾角传感器的测量原理与测量精度,分析环境温差波动对倾角测量误差的影响,最后介绍基于竖直倾角测量方式研制的普适型滑坡地表倾斜变形监测设备——坡体浅层倾斜变形测量仪。     

A practical procedure for searching critical slip surfaces of slopes based on the strength reduction technique

Once an earth slope is led to the limit equilibrium state by means of the finite element–strength reduction technique, a plastic zone will go through the slope from the toe to the top. Based on the observation that the critical slip surface will be within the plastic zone and be composed of the points at which the equivalent plastic strain arrives at the maximum in the vertical direction. First, some vertical lines are arranged along the horizontal direction. Then, along each of the vertical lines the point with the maximum equivalent plastic strain is found out. All such points take on a shape of wave and form the functional data. Finally, the functional data are smoothed by the least squares and the position of the critical slip surface is determined. The proposed procedure is verified through comparison with other procedures.     

A basal slip model for Lagrangian finite element simulations of 3D landslides

A Lagrangian numerical approach for the simulation of rapid landslide runouts is presented and discussed. The simulation approach is based on the so‐called Particle Finite Element Method. The moving soil mass is assumed to obey a rigid‐viscoplastic, non‐dilatant Drucker–Prager constitutive law, which is cast in the form of a regularized, pressure‐sensitive Bingham model. Unlike in classical formulations of computational fluid mechanics, where no‐slip boundary conditions are assumed, basal slip boundary conditions are introduced to account for the specific nature of the landslide‐basal surface interface. The basal slip conditions are formulated in the form of modified Navier boundary conditions, with a pressure‐sensitive threshold. A special mixed Eulerian–Lagrangian formulation is used for the elements on the basal interface to accommodate the new slip conditions into the Particle Finite Element Method framework. To avoid inconsistencies in the presence of complex shapes of the basal surface, the no‐flux condition through the basal surface is relaxed using a penalty approach. The proposed model is validated by simulating both laboratory tests and a real large‐scale problem, and the critical role of the basal slip is elucidated. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of method of generating circular slip surfaces on determining the critical slip surface by particle swarm optimization

The main objectives of slope stability analysis are evaluating factor of safety for a given slip surface and determining the critical slip surface for a given slope. Factor of safety is usually calculated by limit equilibrium method. The main steps to determine the critical slip surface are generating trial slip surfaces as probable solutions and searching among them to determine the one with the lowest factor of safety. Although the process of searching the critical slip surface received much attention between researchers, the significance of method of generating slip surfaces is seldom addressed in the literature. The authors believe that this ignorance can affect the accuracy of the results of slope stability analysis even in the simplest problems with circular slip surfaces. Consequently, this paper focused on the method of generating circular trial slip surfaces as the simplest mechanism of sliding and considered its effect on determining the critical slip surface. A new method of generating circular slip surface was presented, which is more efficient and less restricted than the conventional method. A computer program was also developed to determine the critical slip surface of slopes by using particle swarm optimization. The performances of the proposed method and developed computer program were verified during comparative studies and sensitivity analysis. Based on the results, the effect of method of generating circular slip surfaces on determining the critical slip surface was confirmed successfully. In all considered problems, the proposed method of generating circular slip surfaces led to the lower values of factor of safety compare with the conventional method.     

滑裂面形状对挡土墙主动土压力的影响

滑裂面的准确选取对挡土墙稳定性分析有重要影响。基于塑性极限分析理论,分别推导了直线和对数螺旋线滑移模式下挡土墙主动土压力的计算公式,通过算例对比分析研究了平面滑裂面和对数螺旋滑裂面主动土压力的特点。研究结果表明:直线滑裂面为对数螺旋滑裂面的一种特例,随着滑裂面曲率增大,主动土压力合力作用点逐渐上移,主动土压力合力略有增加,但对墙趾的弯矩显著增加,不利于挡土墙稳定性;挡土墙各参数对直线滑裂面主动土压力合力作用点有不同影响,随着填土内摩擦角、挡墙倾角、填土倾角的增大而上移,随着墙土间摩擦角、黏聚力与容重挡土墙高度的乘积之比的增大而下移,合力作用点位置大致在0.2~0.4倍墙高处,说明主动土压力的非线性分布。研究结果对准确选取滑裂面形状计算挡土墙主动土压力有实际工程应用价值。     

A simplified method for predicting rainfall-induced mobility of active landslides

This paper deals with the landslides that are reactivated by a groundwater level increase owing to rainfall. These landslides are usually characterized by low displacement rate with deformations essentially concentrated within a narrow shear zone above which the unstable soil mass moves like a rigid body (i.e., with a horizontal displacement profile that is essentially constant with depth). In view of this evidence, a new method based on a simple sliding block model is proposed in the present study for a preliminary evaluation of landslide mobility. Unlike other existing methods that provide an evaluation of landslide mobility on the basis of groundwater level measurements, the present method directly relates landslide movements to rain recordings. This possibility constitutes a significant advantage from a practical viewpoint because it allows future displacement scenarios to be predicted from expected rainfall scenarios. In addition, the present method requires a limited number of parameters as input data, many of which can be obtained from conventional geotechnical tests. To evaluate the other parameters involved, an efficient calibration procedure is also proposed. Four case studies documented in the literature are analyzed to assess the capability of the present method to reproduce the main features of the slope response to rainfall. In all these case studies, both groundwater level variations and landslide displacements observed in field are well approximated by the method.     

Identification of failure slip surfaces for landslide risk assessment using smoothed particle hydrodynamics

ABSTRACT

Location of failure slip surfaces plays a critical role in landslide risk assessment and mitigation, particularly for unstable slopes, because it is a key input to design of stabilisation measures for unstable slopes and it determines the volume of the sliding soil mass (i.e. landslide consequence). The failure slip surfaces in the numerical analysis (e.g. finite element/different method, FEM/FDM) are often identified using shear strength reduction (SSR) method. A careful examination of FEM results showed that, although the SSR method performs well for stable slopes, it might provide misleading results for unstable slopes. To properly locate failure slip surfaces for unstable slopes, this paper presents a particle-based numerical method called smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH), which is mesh-free, immune to the mesh distortion problem in FEM/FDM, and able to directly simulate large deformation of soils that occurs during landslides. A series of slope stability analyses is performed using an in-house SPH programme. Failure slip surfaces are properly identified by SPH for both stable and unstable slopes. Furthermore, because SPH provides a spatial distribution of the post-landslide large displacement of soils, the failure slip surfaces can be identified conveniently using soil displacement. A displacement-based criterion is proposed to locate the failure slip surfaces.     

Variational safety factors and slip surfaces of slope using three-dimensional strength reduction analysis

This paper describes the effect of boundary conditions combined with geometric and strength parameters on slope stability, including safety factor and slip surface, using numerical strength reduction analysis. The different boundary conditions are discussed, which include the fully restrained boundary, half-restrained boundary, and free boundary on the safety factor of slope. The effects of geometric and strength parameters on the safety factor of slope are then examined. Discrepancies between the slip surface shape and the escaping points are also presented to assess slope stability.     

Risk de-aggregation and system reliability analysis of slope stability using representative slip surfaces

This paper develops a risk de-aggregation and system reliability approach to evaluate the slope failure probability, p_f, using representative slip surfaces together with MCS. An efficient procedure is developed to strategically select the candidate representative slip surfaces, and a risk de-aggregation approach is proposed to quantify contribution of each candidate representative slip surface to the p_f, identify the representative slip surfaces, and determine how many representative slip surfaces are needed for estimating the p_f with reasonable accuracy. Risk de-aggregation is performed by collecting the failure samples generated in MCS and analyzing them statistically. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a cohesive soil slope example and validated against results from previous studies. When compared with the previous studies, the proposed approach substantially improves the computational efficiency in probabilistic slope stability analysis. The proposed approach is used to explore the effect of spatial variability on the p_f. It is found that, when spatial variability is ignored or perfect correlation assumed, the p_f of the whole slope system can be solely attributed to a single representative slip surface. In this case, it is theoretically appropriate to use only one slip surface in the reliability analysis. As the spatial variability becomes growingly significant, the number of representative slip surfaces increases, and all representative slip surfaces (i.e., failure modes) contribute more equally to the overall system risk. The variation of failure modes has substantial effect on the p_f, and all representative surfaces have to be incorporated properly in the reliability analysis. The risk de-aggregation and system reliability approach developed in this paper provides a practical and efficient means to incorporate such a variation of failure modes in probabilistic slope stability analysis.     

基于强度折减法确定边坡临界滑面的小波变换法

临界滑面的确定一直是岩土工程界研究的热点问题。利用有限元-强度折减法对二维边坡进行稳定性分析时,对于进入极限平衡状态的边坡而言,沿边坡深度方向的等效塑性应变最大值点一般也就是临界滑面上的点。然后通过预设一组相互平行且与坡面近似垂直的直线,找出各直线上等效塑性应变的最大点,可得到一系列呈波动状分布的点,这些点构成了一组一维的信号函数;再利用小波分析对数据进行平滑处理就可得到边坡的临界滑面。通过经典算例分析并与Spencer法等前人的研究成果比较,结果表明该方法是合理有效的,可以用于边坡临界滑面的确定。     

一种长期观测资料确定弱透水层参数的方法

弱透水层是含水层系统的重要组成部分,要准确计算弱透水层释水量和变形量需事先确定弱透水层的渗透系数和贮水率值。基于一维含水层系统概念模型,在相邻含水层降深随时间线性增大的边界条件下,推得了无量纲形式的弱透水层降深解析解,分析了弱透水层中滞后降深消散规律。根据水量均衡方程得到了弱透水层累计压缩变形量随时间变化的标准曲线,并提出了一种配线法用以确定弱透水层的渗透系数和贮水率,该配线法能够反映弱透水层释水变形过程的滞后性。以上海含水层系统为例,运用配线法确定了f_(10-7)分层标处第2弱透水层的渗透系数为4.26×10~(-10)m/s,贮水率为2.22×10~(-4)m~(-1)。对于具有长序列变形和水位观测资料的含水层系统,该方法具有一定的适用性。     

A finite element approach for the analysis of active slow-moving landslides

In the present paper, a finite element approach is proposed to analyse the mobility of active landslides which are controlled by groundwater fluctuations within the slope. These landslides are usually characterised by low displacement rates with deformations that are essentially concentrated within a narrow shear zone above which the unstable soil mass moves with deformations of no great concern. The proposed approach utilises an elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model in conjunction with a Mohr-Coulomb yield function to describe the behaviour of the soil in the shear zone. For the other soils involved by the landslide, an elastic model is used for the sake of simplicity. A significant advantage of the present method lies in the fact that few constitutive parameters are required as input data, the most of which can be readily obtained by conventional geotechnical tests. The rest of the required parameters should be calibrated on the basis of the available monitoring data concerning the change in the piezometric levels and the associated movements of the unstable soil mass. After being calibrated and validated, the proposed approach can be used to predict future landslide movements owing to expected groundwater fluctuations or to assess the effectiveness of drainage systems which are designed to control the landslide mobility. The method is applied to back-predict the observed field behaviour of three active slow-moving landslides documented in the literature.     

基于数据智能可视化分析的滑坡信息化施工研究

采用信息化施工技术进行大型滑坡整治,既安全又经济。笔者探讨了基于大量监测数据处理为核心的信息化施工技术。采用数据可视化技术对大型滑坡巨大数据进行分析处理,确定了滑动面位置、滑动方向和对滑坡进行危险性分区。将支持向量机方法用于预测滑坡变形。将智能和可视化分析结果用于滑坡动态优化设计中,并用一个实际工程实例论述了方法的思路。     

Simple monitoring method for precaution of landslides watching tilting and water contents on slopes surface

A low-cost and simple monitoring method for early warning of landslides is proposed. To detect abnormal deformation of a slope, this method employs a tilt sensor in place of an extensometer on the slope surface. In order to examine the relevance of measuring rotation angle on a slope surface by tilt sensor, model tests were conducted, and rotation on the slope surface was observed together with slide displacement along the surface. The rotation data responded 30 min before failure in a model test, which could be useful as a signal for early warning. However, the behavior of rotation before failure varies from case to case, and thus, criteria to issue warning should be defined more carefully. For a model slope made of uniform loose sand, measurement of slide displacement along the slope surface is sensitive to failure at the toe, while the measurement of rotation on the slope surface is useful to detect the development of progressive failure upward along the slope. Wireless sensor units with microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) tilt sensor and volumetric water content sensor were also examined on a real slope in Kobe City, and a long-term monitoring was attempted. A simple but possible way to define the criteria of judgment to issue warning can be proposed based on combination of data obtained by the tilt sensors and volumetric water content sensors.     

轴对称主动土压力问题的滑移线解

地基中竖向孔支护结构的设计需要以其所受主动土压力为依据,为此常需计算竖向孔开挖后孔壁主动土压力。含竖向圆孔地基是轴对称问题,基于平面应变假设的经典朗肯土压力理论或库仑土压力理论显然不适用,而现有求解轴对称条件下主动土压力方法多采用完全塑性假定或其他假定环向应力与大主应力之比（环向压应力系数?）为常数的方法,理论上不够严谨且误差较大。建立轴对称问题滑移线方程,采用使主动土压力为最大的目标的方法,采用迭代法求解环向压应力系数?,分析了?受土体参数和轴对称竖向孔几何参数影响规律,进而求解轴对称竖向孔孔壁主动土压力的精确值,理论上更为严谨,结果更为合理,并对比平面应变条件下的土压力结果,总结了轴对称条件下主动土压力的规律。