STUDY OF THE POSSIBILITIES OF USING AN AIR MASS TRANSFORMATION MODEL IN TAIYUAN

An AMT-model,consisting of a trajectory model and a one-dimensional boundary layer model,is tested fortrajectories arriving in Taiyuan to study the possibility of using it in Taiyuan.The sensitivity of the model tothe different processes was studied.Some parameters of the model were modified for the purpose of forecast-ing in specific mountainous terrain and dry climate conditions.Results of examples which we have workedout for Taiyuan circumstances for the periods of July(summer)1985 and January(winter)1986,show that the12h runs of the AMT-model are able to reproduce(on historical data)the sounding of Taiyuan.The AMT-modelcontributes fruitfully to short-range weather forecasts(12—36h ahead)during periods of severe air pollution andwhen cold waves occur.     

AN OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS OF A TORRENTIAL RAINSTORM IN THE WARM SECTOR OF SOUTH CHINA COASTAL AREAS

On May 20 th 2007, a brief but severe downpour rainstorm occurred in the coastal areas of Maoming and Yangjiang with rainfall of 115 mm per hour. Data from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis with 1°×1° resolution, Doppler weather radar, conventional surface observations, high-altitude radiosonde and wind profiler radar were used to analyze characteristics and contributions of synoptic scale and mesoscale systems during this torrential rainstorm. The results showed that:(1) the storm was caused by a quasi-linear mesoscale convective system(MCS) and the slow-movement of this system was the primary trigger of the torrential downpour;(2) water vapor was abundant, nearly saturated and in steady state throughout the atmosphere before the storm; intrusion of the weak dry and cold air in the middle level and a striking "dry above and wet below " structure had increased the atmospheric instability;(3) low-level southwesterly airflow from a low pressure(trough) at the Beibu Gulf provided abundant water vapor at the onset of the rainstorm; a deep dry layer was formed by dry and cold air behind the high-level trough, which facilitated latent heat release;upper-level divergence and low-level convergence circulations also provided vertical uplift for warm and moist air at the lower level;(4) Topography only played a minor role as the MCS developed and strengthened over relatively flat coastal terrain. Low level density flow induced by convection triggered new convective cell generation at the leading edge of the convective system, thereby playing a key role in the change of temperature gradient at lower layers, and resulting in strengthening atmospheric instability.     

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DRY AND WET SUMMER IN THE VERTICAL MOTION ON NORTH SIDE OF QINGHAI-XIZANG PLATEAU AND THE THERMAL IMPACT OF PLATEAU

To better analyse and understand the causes of Northwest China(NW China)arid climateformation,firstly the dry and wet standards were chosen and the yearly dry and wet grades on thenorth side of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(hereafter NSQXP)in summers were classified utilizing therainfall data of five stations over the area in June-August of 1952—1990.Then the differencesbetween the vertical motion over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(QXP)and NSQXP in dry and wetsummers were comparatively analyzed using the ECMWF's gridded data of June—August of 1979—1986.Finally the connection between the QXP surface thermal condition and the dry and wetsummers on the NSQXP was discussed as well.The main results are the following:(1)the dry and wet standards taking the rainfall standarddeviation as criterion are suitable for the arid climate area;(2)the QXP may be,to some extent.responsible for the environment background of Middle Asia,NW China and North China aridclimate areas;(3)there are the striking differences between the dominant vertical motion over theQXP and NSQXP in the dry and wet summers of NSQXP:(4)the QXP surface thermal conditionis.to a great extent,responsible for the year—to—year variation of NW China arid climate aswell.     

Skill Assessment of Copernicus Climate Change Service Seasonal Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts over Iran

Medium to long-term precipitation forecasting plays a pivotal role in water resource management and development of warning systems.Recently,the Copernicus Climate Change Service(C3S)database has been releasing monthly forecasts for lead times of up to three months for public use.This study evaluated the ensemble forecasts of three C3S models over the period 1993-2017 in Iran’s eight classified precipitation clusters for one-to three-month lead times.Probabilistic and non-probabilistic criteria were used for evaluation.Furthermore,the skill of selected models was analyzed in dry and wet periods in different precipitation clusters.The results indicated that the models performed best in western precipitation clusters,while in the northern humid cluster the models had negative skill scores.All models were better at forecasting upper-tercile events in dry seasons and lower-tercile events in wet seasons.Moreover,with increasing lead time,the forecast skill of the models worsened.In terms of forecasting in dry and wet years,the forecasts of the models were generally close to observations,albeit they underestimated several severe dry periods and overestimated a few wet periods.Moreover,the multi-model forecasts generated via multivariate regression of the forecasts of the three models yielded better results compared with those of individual models.In general,the ECMWF and UKMO models were found to be appropriate for one-month-ahead precipitation forecasting in most clusters of Iran.For the clusters considered in Iran and for the long-range system versions considered,the Météo France model had lower skill than the other models.     

Analyses of dry intrusion and instability during heavy rainfall event occurred in Northern China

The 1°×1° National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） data and mesoscale numerical simulation data are analyzed to reveal a mechanism for the formation of heavy rainfall in Northern China; this mechanism is the non-uniformly saturated instability induced by a dry intrusion. The dry intrusion and the accompanying downward transport of air with a high value of potential vorticity （PV） are maintained during the precipitation event. As the dry air intrudes down into the warm and moist sector in the lower troposphere, the cold, dry air and the warm, moist air mix with each other, and, as a result, the atmosphere becomes non-uniformly saturated. On the basis of this non-uniform saturation, a new Brunt-Vaisaila frequency （BVF） formula is derived and applied to the precipitation event. It is shown that, compared to the conditions of either a dry or a saturated atmosphere, the BVF in a non-uniformly saturated, moist atmosphere （BVF） may be more appropriate for depicting the atmospheric instability in rainy regions.     

HadISDH.extremes Part Ⅱ:Exploring Humid Heat Extremes Using Wet Bulb Temperature Indices

Heat events may be humid or dry.While several indices incorporate humidity,such combined indices obscure identification and exploration of heat events by their different humidity characteristics.The new HadISDH.extremes global gridded monitoring product uniquely provides a range of wet and dry bulb temperature extremes indices.Analysis of this new data product demonstrates its value as a tool for quantifying exposure to humid verses dry heat events.It also enables exploration into "stealth heat ...     

Diagnosis of the forcing of inertial-gravity waves in a severe convection system

The non-hydrostatic wave equation set in Cartesian coordinates is rearranged to gain insight into wave generation in a mesoscale severe convection system. The wave equation is characterized by a wave operator on the lhs, and forcing involving three terms—linear and nonlinear terms, and diabatic heating—on the rhs. The equation was applied to a case of severe convection that occurred in East China. The calculation with simulation data showed that the diabatic forcing and linear and nonlinear forcing presented large magnitude at different altitudes in the severe convection region. Further analysis revealed the diabatic forcing due to condensational latent heating had an important influence on the generation of gravity waves in the middle and lower levels. The linear forcing resulting from the Laplacian of potential-temperature linear forcing was dominant in the middle and upper levels. The nonlinear forcing was determined by the Laplacian of potential-temperature nonlinear forcing. Therefore, the forcing of gravity waves was closely associated with the thermodynamic processes in the severe convection case. The reason may be that, besides the vertical component of pressure gradient force, the vertical oscillation of atmospheric particles was dominated by the buoyancy for inertial gravity waves. The latent heating and potential-temperature linear and nonlinear forcing played an important role in the buoyancy tendency. Consequently, these thermodynamic elements influenced the evolution of inertial-gravity waves.     

Seasonal Prediction Experiments of the Summer Droughts and Floods during the Early 1990’s in East Asia with Numerical Models

It has been shown by the observed data that during the early 1990’s, the severe disastrous climate occurred in East Asia. In the summer of 1991, severe flood occurred in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River basin of China and in South Korea, and it also appeared in South Korea in the summer of 1993. However, in the summer of 1994, a dry and hot summer was caused in the Huaihe River basin of China and in R. O. K.. In order to investigate the seasonal predictability of the summer droughts and floods during the early l990’s in East Asia, the seasonal prediction experiments of the summer droughts and floods in the summers of 1991-1994 in East Asia have been made by using the Institute of Atmospheric Physics-Two-Level General Circulation Model (IAP-L2 AGCM), the IAP-Atmosphere/Ocean Coupled Model (IAP-CGCM) and the IAP-L2 AGCM in?cluding a filtering scheme, respectively. Compared with the observational facts, it is shown that the IAP-L2 AGCM or IAP-CGCM has some predictability for the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990’s in East Asia, es?pecially for the severe droughts and floods in China and R. O, K.. In this study, a filtering scheme is used to improve the seasonal prediction experiments of the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990’s in East Asia. The predicted results show that the filtering scheme to remain the planetary-scale disturbances is an effective method for the improvement of the seasonal prediction of the summer droughts and floods in East Asia.     

ATMOSPHERIC PROFILER AND PRELIMINARY INVESTIGATION ON THE MONITORING OF DISASTROUS WEATHER

Outlined in this paper are main technical specifications of the first profiler developed in China. The profileris composed of a UHF Doppler radar for wind measurement and a microwave radiometer, and preliminarilyapplied in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei base of monitoring disastrous weather in 1989—1990. This paper presentsthe preliminary and valuable results obtained by the instrument in the monitoring of severe storm generating andevolution, showing the potential of this instrument in weather monitoring.     

A study of partitioning Q vector on background conditions of a torrential rainfall over Shanghai, China on 25 August 2008

A rainfall that occurred during 0200–1400 Beijing Standard Time(BST)25 August 2008 shows the rapid development of a convective system,a short life span,and a record rate of 117.5 mm h-1for Xujiahui station since 1872.To study this torrential rainfall process,the partitioning method of Q vector is developed,in which a moist Q vector is first separated into a dry ageostrophic Q vector(DQ)and a diabatic-heating component.The dry ageostrophic Q vector is further partitioned along isothermal lines in the natural...     

SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION AND VARIATION TENDENCY OF DROUGHTS AND FLOODS IN HUNAN PROVINCE DURING THE PAST 36 YEARS

Using the 1970–2005 annual precipitation and evaporation data at 80 gauge stations across Hunan province, this work analyzes the spatial distribution and variation tendency of the local droughts and floods using linear regression, wavelet analysis, abrupt change, clusters, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and rotated EOF (REOF). Results show that there are four dry areas and three wet areas in Hunan. The whole province exhibits a moistening trend except some small areas in western, eastern and southern Hunan. The most prominent feature of annual precipitation is that the whole province basically displays a consistent variation tendency, as far as the dominant EOF mode is concerned. In addition, the spatial features of the other EOF modes include dry-wet differences, e.g. wet (or dry) in the north versus dry (or wet) in the south, wet (or dry) in the center and dry (or wet) in the surrounding areas. The distribution of the ratios of evaporation to precipitation exhibits both common features as well as spatial differences, which can be classified into four types: South Hunan, North Hunan, Northeast Hunan, and Central Hunan. There is an abrupt change from dry to wet patterns in the early 1990s. Generally, the drought-flood distribution presents variations of three periods. In the late 2000s, Hunan province will be in a period of drought, followed by a period of flood.     

Asymmetric Drying and Wetting Trends in Eastern and Western China

As an important factor that directly affects agricultural production, the social economy, and policy implementation,observed changes in dry/wet conditions have become a matter of widespread concern. However, previous research has mainly focused on the long-term linear changes of dry/wet conditions, while the detection and evolution of the non-linear trends related to dry/wet changes have received less attention. The non-linear trends of the annual aridity index, obtained by the Ensemble Empirica...     

An Improved, Downscaled, Fine Model for Simulation of Daily Weather States

In this study,changes in daily weather states were treated as a complex Markov chain process,based on a continuous-time watershed model(soil water assessment tool,SWAT) developed by the Agricultural Research Service at the U.S.Department of Agriculture(USDA-ARS).A finer classification using total cloud amount for dry states was adopted,and dry days were classified into three states:clear,cloudy,and overcast(rain free).Multistate transition models for dry-and wet-day series were constructed to comprehensively downscale the simulation of regional daily climatic states.The results show that the finer,improved,downscaled model overcame the oversimplified treatment of a two-weather state model and is free of the shortcomings of a multistate model that neglects finer classification of dry days(i.e.,finer classification was applied only to wet days).As a result,overall simulation of weather states based on the SWAT greatly improved,and the improvement in simulating daily temperature and radiation was especially significant.     

THE FLUCTUATIONS OF DRY AND WET CLIMATE BOUNDARY AND ITS CAUSAL ANALYSES IN CHINA*

Based on yearly precipitation and Φ20 evaporation pan data during 1951 to 1999 of 295 stations,the aridity index is calculated in this paper.According to the aridity index,the climatic regions in China are divided into three types:the arid zone,the semi-arid zone and the humid zone. Isoline 0.20 is the boundary between arid and semi-arid zones.Isoline 0.50 is the boundary between semi-arid and humid zones.The fluctuations of dry and wet climate boundaries are very substantial,have greatly regional difference,and have the features of the whole shifting along the same direction and of the opposite moving along the contrary direction over the past 50 years.The semi-arid zone is a transitional zone between humid and arid zones,a border belt of monsoon,and a susceptible zone of environmental evolution in China. In the period of the late 1960s to the early 1970s,remarkable change had occurred for dry and wet climate in China.It manifests significantly that climate is from wetter into drought in most regions of northern China.Moreover,drought has an increasing trend.The fluctuations of climatic boundaries and the dry and wet variations in climate have substantial inter-decadal features. The main factors affecting the dry and wet climate boundary fluctuations and the dry and wet variations of climate in China are East Asian summer monsoon,Indian Monsoon,plateau monsoon in the Tibetan Plateau,westerly circulation,and West Pacific subtropical high.The different types of circulations and the strong and weak combinations of these circulations result in the regional differences of dry and wet climate changes in China.Inter-decadal variations of the dry and wet climate boundary fluctuations and of the arid and humid climate result from the inter-decadal changes of East Asian summer monsoon,Indian Monsoon,plateau monsoon,westerly circulation, and West Pacific subtropical high.The anomalous general atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during the late 1960s to the early 1970s is the causes of arid and humid climate remarkable change in China.     

A Comparative Analysis of Primary and Extreme Characteristics of Dry or Wet Status between Asia and North America

In this study, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was used to analyze the average and extreme dry/wet states of Asia and North America from 1953 to 2003. The results indicate that the two continents underwent drying trends during this period. Compared with North America, Asia showed more severe drought trends. However, more significant and regular seasonal variation for drought was found in North America. The driest regions in Asia were located in the northern region of China, Mongolia, and eastern mid-Siberian plateau. Most regions in central North America were relatively wetter than other regions. The northern and southwestern regions of North America, as well as the Atlantic and Pacific coastal areas, experienced the most drought during this period. A sharp increase of the drought area and the number of extreme drought events took place from 1997 to 2003 in both Asia and North America. Severe drought events were more likely to occur during the summer on both continents. Asia had the most extreme drought events during July, but North America reached its highest drought frequency from June to September. In Asia, a persistent increasing trend of extreme drought emerged throughout the studied period. However, a more complex evolution of drought emerged in North America: a decreasing trend appeared before the mid-1960s and an increasing trend appeared after the late 1970s. A relatively steady dry/wet status was observed between the mid-1960s and the late 1970s. The role of exceptional, extreme drought events with respect to the La Nin?a event was considered during 1997–2003.     

Adjoint sensitivity study on idealized explosive cyclogenesis

The adjoint sensitivity related to explosive cyclogenesis in a conditionally unstable atmosphere is investigated in this study.The PSU/NCAR limited-area,nonhydrostatic primitive equation numerical model MM5 and its adjoint system are employed for numerical simulation and adjoint computation,respectively.To ensure the explosive development of a baroclinic wave,the forecast model is initialized with an idealized condition including an idealized two-dimensional baroclinic jet with a balanced three-dimensional moderateamplitude disturbance,derived from a potential vorticity inversion technique.Firstly,the validity period of the tangent linear model for this idealized baroclinic wave case is discussed,considering different initial moisture distributions and a dry condition.Secondly,the 48-h forecast surface pressure center and the vertical component of the relative vorticity of the cyclone are selected as the response functions for adjoint computation in a dry and moist environment,respectively.The preliminary results show that the validity of the tangent linear assumption for this idealized baroclinic wave case can extend to 48 h with intense moist convection,and the validity period can last even longer in the dry adjoint integration.Adjoint sensitivity analysis indicates that the rapid development of the idealized baroclinic wave is sensitive to the initial wind and temperature perturbations around the steering level in the upstream.Moreover,the moist adjoint sensitivity can capture a secondary high sensitivity center in the upper troposphere,which cannot be depicted in the dry adjoint run.     

Features and Sources of the Anomalous Moisture Transport for the Severe Summer Rainfall over the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River

Using the daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and the observation rainfall data in China for the 1980-1997 period, features of severe summer rainfall over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River are investigated and then sources of moisture contributing to severe rainfall over eastern and western Sichuan Province (ES and WS for short) are examined with particular reference. It turns out that the severe rainfall occurring locally dominates summer rainfall over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Climatological rainfall and anomalous one constitute severe rainfall, but the latter accounts much for severe rainfall. The meridional moisture transport dominates the composite moisture transport on the occurrence day for ES region, while the zonal is equivalent to the meridional for WS region. Correlation between the moisture transport fluxes over the two regions of severe rainfall and other regions, the anomaly and variation of the moisture transport day by day during the period of severe rainfall lend a support for the conclusion that the meeting of the moisture from the West Pacific through the South China Sea (SCS) and the one from northwestern China exerts a vital effect on the occurrence of severe rainfall, which can not be neglected.     

Evolution Mechanism of a Severe Squall Line Triggered by the Coupling of a Sea Breeze Front and a Gust Front

In the present study, a severe squall line (SL) was analyzed by using intensive observational surface data and radar monitoring products. In this process, mesoscale convergence lines, such as the sea breeze front (SBF), gust front and dry line, served as the main triggering and strengthening factors. The transition from convection triggering to the formation of the initial shape was mainly affected by the convergence line of the SBF, which combined with thermal convection to form the main parts of the SL. In the later stage, the convergence line of the gust front merged with other convergence lines to form a series of strong convective cells. The SBF had good indicative significance in terms of severe convective weather warnings. The suitable conditions of heat, water vapor and vertical wind shear on the Shandong Peninsula were beneficial to the maintenance of the SL. Before SL occurrence, tropopause folding strengthened, which consequently enhanced the baroclinic property in the middle and upper troposphere. The high sensible heat flux at the surface easily produced a positive potential vorticity anomaly in the low layer, resulting in convective instability, which was conducive to the maintenance of these processes. In the system, when precipitation particles passed through the unsaturated air layer, they underwent strong evaporation, melting or sublimation, and the cooling effect formed negative buoyancy, which accelerated the sinking of the air and promoted the sustained development of the surface gale. Together with the development of low- level mesocyclones, the air pressure decreased rapidly, which was conducive to gale initiation.     

Soil Moisture Effects on Sand Saltation and Dust Emission Observed over the Horqin Sandy Land Area in China

In this study, the effects of soil moisture on sand saltation and dust emission over the Horqin Sandy Land area are investigated, based on observations of three dust events in 2010. The minimum friction velocity initiating the motion of surface particles, namely, the threshold friction velocity, is estimated to be 0.34,0.40, and 0.50 m s-1under the very dry, dry, and wet soil conditions, respectively. In comparison with the observations during the dust events under the very dry and dry soil conditions, the dust emission flux during the wet event is smaller, but the saltation activities of sand particles(d 50 μm) are stronger. The size distributions of airborne dust particles(0.1 d 20 μm) show that concentrations of the finer dust particles(0.1 d 0.3 μm) have a secondary peak under dry soil conditions, while they are absent under wet soil conditions. This suggests that the surface soil particle size distribution can be changed by soil moisture. Under wet soil conditions, the particles appear to have a larger size, and hence more potential saltating particles are available. This explains the occurrence of stronger saltation processes observed under wet soil conditions.     

A Linear Diagnostic Equation for the Nonhydrostatic Vertical Motion W in Severe Storms

A linear diagnostic equation for the nonhydrostatic vertical motion W in severe storms is derived in the Cartesian-earth-spherical coordinates. This W diagnostic equation reveals explicitly how forcing factors work together to exert influence on the nonhydrostatic vertical motion in severe storms. If high-resolution global data are available in Cartesian coordinates with guaranteed quality, the Lax-Crank-Nicolson scheme and the Thomas algorithm might provide a promising numerical solution of this diagnostic equation. As a result, quantitative analyses are expected for the evolution mechanisms of severe storms.