The Changing Geography of U.S. Hispanics from 1990–2006: A Shift to the South and Midwest

Abstract

Between 1990 and 2000 the U.S. Hispanic population increased by 14 million, which is the largest decadal population rise in United States history. This increase was not spread evenly throughout the United States, nor was it isolated to locations that already had large Hispanic populations. On the contrary, areas that previously had a relatively small Hispanic population experienced large percentage increases. In this article the regional variability in Hispanic population growth is explored, along with an emphasis on the economic pull factors driving those demographic changes. This analysis illustrates how restructuring in the meatpacking industry, and the associated economic impacts, have created a dependence on a low wage, illegal labor force that has shaped the recent demographic trend in the South and Midwest.     

黄土高原人口变化对县域经济系统脆弱性的影响研究

以黄土高原地区县域为例,利用敏感性?应对能力模型评估了黄土高原地区2000年以来县域经济脆弱性特征及其时空变化,并结合ArcGIS空间技术与灰色关联分析探究人口变化对县域经济脆弱性的影响作用。研究发现：① 2000年黄土高原县域经济脆弱性等级以低和较低脆弱性等级为主导,而2010年低脆弱度区域面积开始出现减少,中、高脆弱度区域面积显著增加,2017年低和较低脆弱性等级的区域占土地面积比例增加,中、高脆弱度区域面积下降。总体来说,2000—2017年黄土高原地区县域经济脆弱性整体呈现出“先升高再降低”的趋势。② 黄土高原县域经济脆弱性整体呈现“南高北低”的空间格局,处于高和较高水平的县区主要集中在甘肃东部部分县域和山西西部县域;中等水平的县区集中分布于甘肃省庆阳、平凉市东部县域、山西省大同、忻州市部分县域以及山西西部部分县域;省会城市所辖县区、地市周边地区的脆弱性水平最低。③ 表征人口变化的人口外流率、性别比和老年人口比重是影响黄土高原县域经济脆弱性关键因素,且不同时期人口变化对经济脆弱性的影响因素存在分异。     

长江经济带人口流动对区域经济差异的影响

依据中国第四次、第五次、第六次人口普查的户籍人口和常住人口数据,借助泰尔指数、空间分析、回归建模等方法,分析长江经济带经济差异和人口流动的时空格局,探究人口流动对区域经济差异的影响。结果表明：① 基于户籍人口计算的经济总差异和分解差异均大于基于常住人口计算的差异,户籍口径差异随时间扩大,常住口径差异则随时间缩小;② 长江经济带县域经济差异格局在东、中、西地带呈现不同的中心—外围结构,东部以空间聚合的长三角经济发达县为面状核心区,具有都市连绵带特征,中部和西部则形成多个以中心城市为点状核心区的中心—外围结构;③ 人口流动对流入地和流出地经济增长的影响不同,2000年和2010年流动人口比率的提高均显著促进流入地的经济增长,但在2000年会相对减缓流出地的增长,2010年则相对缓慢地促进流出地的增长,县域经济差异不断扩大;④ 省域和地带因素会干扰人口流动对县域经济差异的解释,在控制了二者的影响之后,人口流动对县域经济差异的扩大程度明显减弱;⑤ 人口流动对区域经济差异的影响最为突出,其次是以工业化水平所体现的经济结构,人力资本、财政分权和区域战略的影响较小;对流出地而言,重视劳动力回流、推进人口家庭化迁移、加快工业化进程,是防止乃至缩小区域经济差异的政策关键。     

Population development in rural areas of the United States in the 1980s: turnaround of trends or continuity?

"The article analyses the population growth in rural counties of the U.S.A. for 1970-80 and 1980-86. The growth rates are examined on different levels of aggregation (individual counties, subregions and regions) and in relation to several possible determinants of growth. The main objective of the study is to examine whether the growth patterns in the eighties support the hypothesis of a turnaround in the population development of rural areas.... The results reveal a diversity of growth patterns and significant regional differences. Rural counties within the daily urban system of a metropolitan area have significantly higher growth rates than peripheral rural counties. The results do not support the notion of a turnaround of long established trends. The trends in the eighties bear more resemblance to traditional growth patterns of rural areas." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

中国人口收缩的城乡分异特征及形成机理

在县市尺度上对2000-2010年人口收缩区的城乡分异特征进行分析,划分出城增乡减型、城乡双收缩型和城减乡增型等类型,并建立人口收缩城乡分异的理论分析框架,探讨了不同类型的形成机理,主要的发现如下:①2000-2010年,人口收缩单元占比约为38.6％,城增乡减型单元占据绝对主体,达到34.5％,而"城乡双收缩型"和"...     

县域尺度下中国人口老龄化的空间格局与区域差异

2000年以来,中国的老龄化进程加快,人口老龄化已经成为中国社会经济发展必须面对的新常态与核心问题之一。本文从县域尺度出发,基于2000和2010年的人口普查数据,应用标准差椭圆、地理探测器等方法,分析了10年间中国2283个县域单元人口老龄化的空间分布、区域差异及其影响因素。结果表明：①人口老龄化空间分布模式多样,胡焕庸线西北半壁以均质化、轴带特征为主;而胡焕庸线东南半壁则呈现出核心—外围的分布特征。②2000-2010年间,人口老龄化均值从6.7%增至8.7%,表明中国县域全面进入老年型社会,步入老年型的县域多集中于内陆、东北地区、丝绸之路经济带沿线区;10年间人口老龄化总体空间格局较为稳定,但人口老龄化的变动趋势差异显著。③人口老龄化在“胡焕庸线”两侧、不同地域类型间、城乡间、民族自治地区与非民族自治地区间、贫困与非贫困地区间存在差异,且差异变动的方向并不一致。④影响人口老龄化的核心因素为各区域往期人口年龄结构、步入老年序列人口比重、人口流出的比例等。     

The harmonious relationship between land use and environment in Xi’an

In this paper we adopt annual land use conditions change data, land sifting data, social, economic and population data and environment information of nine districts and four counties in Xi’an city from 1980 to 2000 to analyze its structural and degree change of land use since the 1980s, and calculate the benefits and transformation of land use type. The results show that the non-agricultural land increased rapidly, especially the urban and rural residential spots and industrial and mining (RIM) land use increased mostly rapidly, an increase of 64%. Meanwhile, the intensity of land exploitation was accelerating, land was transformed to industries with better benefit and areas experiencing faster urbanization process. By analyzing the harmonious degree of land exploitation in economic and environmental aspects, we find out that the land use imbalance mainly existed in the municipal area of Xi’an, and the imbalance index of land use based on GDP and non-agricultural population were respectively 12.37 and 14.67 in 2000, which were far higher than those in other regions. Nevertheless the environmental harmonious degree in the municipal area of Xi’an ranges between 0.6 and 0.8, which was better than that of suburban area. Some proposals addressing to the problems of harmonious level in all scales, resources utilization, projects management and feasibility analysis and intensive urbanization are also put forward.     

Changing Patterns of Population Density in the United States

Changing population density is often ignored in studies of population growth and population transfer in the United States. We show that there is a complex relationship between patterns of population growth and density increase by state. The largest gains in density are in the states of the northeastern megalopolis, California, and Florida. Analysis of the 150 counties with the greatest increases in density between 1980 and 1990 shows that they are well distributed across the United States including the larger metropolitan areas of the “Rustbelt.” In general, the most densely populated states and places are becoming more densely populated, a concept we refer to as densification.     

Changing Patterns of Population Density in the United States

Changing population density is often ignored in studies of population growth and population transfer in the United States. We show that there is a complex relationship between patterns of population growth and density increase by state. The largest gains in density are in the states of the northeastern megalopolis, California, and Florida. Analysis of the 150 counties with the greatest increases in density between 1980 and 1990 shows that they are well distributed across the United States including the larger metropolitan areas of the “Rustbelt.” In general, the most densely populated states and places are becoming more densely populated, a concept we refer to as densification.     

基于县域单元的中国生态经济系统协调度及空间演化

以中国2853 个县(市、旗、区)为研究单元,利用1980、1990、2000 和2012 年的中国县级行政单元GDP数据和全国1 km格网土地利用数据,通过计算生态系统服务价值(ESV)和GDP的变化率,构建生态经济系统协调度(EEH)模型,分析了EEH的空间演化特征,在此基础上借助空间统计Local Moran's I 和Getis-Ord G_i^* 指数评价EEH空间分布模式.结果表明:①自1980 年以来中国县级行政单元GDP持续快速增长,全国呈现东南沿海增长速度明显高于中部地区,而中部地区又明显高于西部地区的特征;②生态系统服务价值(ESV)在空间分布上表现为西部和北部地区较高,南部和中东部地区较低;③中国县域EEH 1980-2012 年间逐步得到改善,EEH空间关联度总体相对稳定,但空间格局分布不均衡.总体来看,确保生态经济系统的持续协调发展的任务依然十分艰巨.     

Black–White and Hispanic–White Segregation in U.S. Counties

Residential segregation in metropolitan areas has been the subject of much research, but this article analyzes patterns of white–black and white–Hispanic segregation in counties across the United States. Our purpose was to understand county variations in this one dimension of inequality. Conceiving of segregation as relative inequality of access to neighborhood resources, we measured segregation in 2000 by the index of dissimilarity (D) calculated by blocks, mapped the index values, and correlated them with census variables. Three filters enabled us to eliminate counties with characteristics that could have corrupted the analyses, leaving us with more than 1,000 counties in each analysis. Both minority groups were less segregated from whites in the West and South and in metropolitan counties. Lower segregation was strongly associated with higher minority socioeconomic status and higher percentages of minorities living in housing built in the 1990s, and Hispanic–white segregation was lower where more Hispanics were U.S.-born or English proficient. The racial threat hypothesis was supported only weakly and inconsistently. Mapping made it possible to identify regional and local patterns of high and low segregation as well as the lower segregation of suburban counties in some large metropolitan areas.     

西南地区县域市民化需求人口分布格局演变

使用中国2000年、2010年县域人口统计年鉴,运用GIS空间分析技术将人口迁移数据及市民化数据空间图像化。研究结果表明:(1)整体格局上,迁入人口的比重、市民化的需求人口均表现为省会城市>旅游型县市>资源型县市>其它县市的规律,且差异较大,具有明显的经济指向性。(2)时空演变方面,2000~2010年西南地区市民化需求比重变化明显,省会城市需求依旧较大,同时其它县市市民化需求都有明显提升。(3)影响市民化需求人口的最主要的影响因素为经济因素。本研究可以为西南地区人口政策制定、人口市民化趋势预测以及人口城市化方面的研究等提供一定的数据参考和借鉴。     

1978-2012年武陵山区公路通达性演化及其对经济发展的影响

利用通达性系数和加权平均出行时间,结合GIS网络分析和空间分析方法,探讨了1978-2012年武陵山区64个县（市、区）与武陵山区及其外围38个地级市以上城市之间通达性演化的格局和特征,并分析了2000-2012年武陵山区经济发展格局,采用柯布—道格拉斯生产函数模型,定量模拟了通达性对经济发展的影响。研究发现：1978-2000年,武陵山区通达性系数的稳定性较好,到2012年,通达性系数较小值具有向武陵山区东南部集聚的趋势。1978-2000年武陵山区的经济加权平均出行时间和人口加权出行时间的优劣程度均具有由东向西逐渐下降的“圈层式”布局的特点,到2012年,经济加权平均出行时间和人口加权平均出行时间较小值均具有向武陵山区东南部迁移的趋势,原因在于武陵山区及其外围的东部和南部城市较多且路网发展更为迅速和完善。2000-2012年,武陵山区经济发展格局相对稳定,形成了“东部和西北部强、西南部和中北部弱”的经济发展格局,但经济发展的绝对差距逐步扩大,两极分化的趋势越来越明显。2000-2012年武陵山区通达性的重要程度发生变化,通达性的优劣程度对于GDP的影响明显上升,通达性的改善在整体上较好地促进了武陵山区GDP的增长,对武陵山区经济发展的作用变得越来越重要。同时,通达性改善削弱了第一产业的发展,但对第二产业发展具有逐渐上升的正向影响,对第三产业发展的正向影响显著上升。研究充实了贫困地区交通与经济发展关系的实证和理论,对武陵山区通达性改善与经济发展具有重要的指导意义,可以为相关政策的制定提供参考依据。     

广东人口迁移机制、特征与走向

８０年代以来广东省活跃的人口迁移，其主要动因是改革开放中广东省与国内其它地区以及省内珠江三角洲与其它地区之间经济的不平衡发展。广东省人口迁移有其显著特征，而区域经济发展水平的差异、产业结构特征及劳动力供求关系的发展等又影响着未来的人口迁移走向。     

1980—2016年黄土高原地区人口和可达性异速标度分析

论文基于黄土高原地区乡镇1980、1990、2000、2010、2016年5期截面数据,利用位序—规模法则和异速标度律,分析了乡镇尺度人口和可达性规模结构、等级体系及异速标度演化关系。结果表明：① 人口规模以中小等级乡镇为主,60%的乡镇人口规模正增长,总体呈“南北高、中间低”分布格局;可达性水平总体呈明显上升趋势,空间上自东南向西北逐渐降低;河谷平原区人口规模和可达性均最大。② 人口和可达性均呈位次型分布,人口位序—规模具有明显双分形结构,由均衡向极化转变;可达性位序—规模以2000年为转折点由双分形演变为单分形,由低水平均衡转向更高水平均衡。③ 3006个乡镇整体以正异速生长为主,负异速生长为辅,黄土高塬沟壑区、河谷平原区内乡镇异速生长类型以人口增长正异速生长为主,黄土丘陵沟壑区、土石山区、沙地和沙漠区内乡镇以人口下降正异速生长为主,农灌区内乡镇异速生长以人口增长正异速一级和人口下降负异速一级为主。最后根据人口和可达性异速类型和空间分布特征,提出各分区发展的建议。     

A geographic perspective on intra-urban racial/ethnic diversity, segregation, and clustering in Knoxville, Tennessee: 1990-2000

Racial/ethnic diversity in the United States has increased significantly in recent decades, with minority groups now accounting for almost one-third of the total population. At the same time, growing diversity has spread into rural and non-metropolitan areas. Research suggests that changing diversity in the ‘New South’ has seen growth of non-Black communities. The question, however, is the degree to which increasing diversity equates with increasing intermixing or, alternatively, whether racial/ethnic clusters retain their prominence. This paper examines the geographic manifestations of growing racial/ethnic diversity within intra-urban context, using census-tracts as scale of analysis in the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) of Knoxville in Tennessee. The statistics used for analyzing intra-urban variations include Diversity Score, Theil Entropy Index, and Location Quotient. Tract and Block-group data for White, Black, American Indian, Asian, All Others and Hispanic are used for computing these indices. This paper concludes that diversity has increased during 1990-2000, and has dispersed into suburban counties. However, segregation and clustering for certain minority groups has also increased, in particular African-Americans still remain the most segregated and most clustered community confined to specific geographic locations. This research holds significance as local economic development patterns are very much guided by the geographic variability of human and social capital. Applied research can suggest avenues for growth and can help rebuild local communities. This paper will also contribute to literature focusing on methodological challenges in measuring diversity and its geographic manifestations.     

农业地域类型的识别及其演进特征——以106国道沿线典型样带区为例

构建农业地域类型的辨识指标体系,采用农用地动态度、农用地优势度、重心模型和空间自相关模型,分析1996、2000和2009年106国道沿线样带区农业地域类型的时空格局、演进特征及其驱动机制。结果表明:① 研究区农业发展的社会经济条件地域差异显著,呈现北高南低的梯度分布规律,并在样带中南部形成“低谷区”。② 农用地结构、利用程度与方式变化显著。耕地减少326.17×10³ hm²,北部快于南部地区,山地丘陵区快于平原农区;园地和林地逐渐向优势区集中,牧草地总体变化不明显;垦殖指数有所下降,耕地承载人口压力日益增加,水浇地面积比重大。③ 农业仍然是主要部门,其次为畜牧业、林业和渔业;果品、蔬菜生产在全国占据重要地位。样带区东部平原县农业优势高于西部山地丘陵县,而牧业比较优势则是西部高于东部,林业比较优势呈由南向北逐渐增强的态势,南部渔业优势突出。④ 农业投入产出效益逐年递增,且有加速趋势。⑤ 农业地域类型的形成与演变受自然资源禀赋、人口变化、经济增长、技术革新和政策体制等因素的综合影响,但各时期的主导驱动机制有所差别。     

县域人口老龄化经济压力测算与空间格局变动--以成渝地区为例

基于第五次、第六次人口普查数据,构建人口老龄化经济压力指数,采用空间自相关模型、空间误差模型,测度成渝地区人口老龄化经济压力水平并探索其空间格局变动与影响因素。结果表明:1)2000年、2010年成渝地区人口老龄化经济压力分别为全国平均水平的2.04倍、2.14倍,整体处于较大压力状态,并呈上升趋势,县域人口年龄结构升级态势明显,区域内部由隆升结构向隆升—塌缩并存转变。2)成渝地区县域人口老龄化经济压力呈“一带两圈”分布格局,成都、重庆都市圈人口老龄化经济压力较小,中间地带压力较大,并呈连片分布、逐渐扩散态势。3)县域人口老龄化经济压力具有较强空间集聚性,形成“3+2”压力集聚区,渝东北、川东北、川南地区为三大压力高值集聚区,成都、重庆两大都市圈为压力低值集聚区;压力增长呈“西快东慢、北快南慢”格局,成—德—绵经济带的边缘县域压力增长较快。4)决定县域人口老龄化经济压力集聚格局的主要因素是工业化、服务化、老龄化,工业化、服务化水平的提升有利于缓解人口老龄化经济压力程度,净迁入率对人口老龄化经济压力集聚的影响不显著。     

The poverty dynamics in rural China during 2000–2014: A multi-scale analysis based on the poverty gap index

As the largest developing country in the world, China’s rural areas face many poverty- related issues. It is imperative to assess poverty dynamics in a timely and effective manner in China’s rural areas. Therefore, we used the poverty gap index to investigate the poverty dynamics in China’s rural areas during 2000–2014 at the national, contiguous poor areas with particular difficulties and county scales. We found that China made significant achievements in poverty alleviation during 2000–2014. At the national scale, the number of impoverished counties decreased by 1428, a reduction of 97.28%. The rural population in impoverished counties decreased by 493.94 million people or 98.76%. Poverty alleviation was closely associated with economic development, especially with industrial development. Among all 15 socioeconomic indicators, the industrial added value had the highest correlation coefficient with the poverty gap index (r = –0.458, p<0.01). Meanwhile, the inequality of income distribution in the out-of-poverty counties has been aggravated. The urban-rural income gap among the out-of-poverty counties increased by 1.67-fold, and the coefficient of variation in rural per-capita income among the out-of-poverty counties also increased by 9.09%. Thus, we argued that special attention should be paid to reducing income inequality for sustainable development in China’s rural areas.     

Spatial pattern and influencing factors of landslide casualty events

Analysis of casualties due to landslides from 2000 to 2012 revealed that their spatial pattern was affected by terrain and other natural environmental factors, which resulted in a higher distribution of landslide casualty events in southern China than in northern China. Hotspots of landslide-generated casualties were in the western Sichuan mountainous area and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau region, southeast hilly area, northern part of the loess hilly area, and Tianshan and Qilian Mountains. However, local distribution patterns indicated that landslide casualty events were also influenced by economic activity factors. To quantitatively analyse the influence of natural environment and human-economic activity factors, the Probability Model for Landslide Casualty Events in China (LCEC) was built based on logistic regression analysis. The results showed that relative relief, GDP growth rate, mean annual precipitation, fault zones, and population density were positively correlated with casualties caused by landslides. Notably, GDP growth rate ranked only second to relative relief as the primary factors in the probability of casualties due to landslides. The occurrence probability of a landslide casualty event increased 2.706 times with a GDP growth rate increase of 2.72%. In contrast, vegetation coverage was negatively correlated with casualties caused by landslides. The LCEC model was then applied to calculate the occurrence probability of landslide casualty events for each county in China. The results showed that there are 27 counties with high occurrence probability but zero casualty events. The 27 counties were divided into three categories: poverty-stricken counties, mineral-rich counties, and real-estate overexploited counties; these are key areas that should be emphasized in reducing landslide risk.