EXPLORING MARKET‐BASED DEVELOPMENT: MARKET INTERMEDIARIES AND FARMERS IN CALAKMUL,MEXICO*

ABSTRACT. Market intermediaries play important roles in the development of tropical‐forest frontiers but are often overlooked in the assessment of land‐change dynamics. Consistent with research beyond land‐change studies, intermediaries are found to be a pivotal element in land‐use and land‐cover change in southeastern Mexico. They have stimulated commercial chili cultivation in this development frontier, providing transportation and other services to smallholders who could otherwise not enter the chili market. This role comes at the cost of a near monopoly on chili marketing. The various roles played by these intermediaries, or coyotes, the means by which they operate, and the consequences for smallholders and land use are detailed for the Calakmul Municipality, Campeche, Mexico.     

Forest transitions in tropical landscapes: A test in the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot

Analyzing temporal changes in forest amount and configuration is paramount to better design future forest management interventions. Such analyses are especially required for tropical biomes, which are usually subject to dynamic and heterogeneous land uses. Recent studies have suggested that many tropical biomes are passing through the process of “forest transition”, i.e. an overall change from forest loss to forest gain. However, this hypothesis remains scarcely tested, due to the difficulty of obtaining detailed, quantitative historical records of forest cover. In this study, we investigate 38 years of land use change in Brazil's Atlantic Forest, a biodiversity hotspot, from 1976 to 2014, using multitemporal datasets from aerial photographs and satellite images. We classified the historical series to produce land use maps and calculated a set of landscape metrics, including total forest cover, patch size, patch shape and patch connectivity. Our results indicated non-linear changes through time in forest loss and gain and also in landscape structure, which can be classified into two distinct periods. The first period (1976–1996) was marked by expressive forest loss and fragmentation, whereas the second (1996–2014) was characterized by a much less intense forest dynamics, with little deforestation being balanced by forest regeneration. We attribute the forest dynamics observed to temporal changes in socioeconomic factors, such as increasing human settlements and changes in environmental protection policies. Our results show that current forests are a heterogeneous mosaic of forests with different ages, and support the hypothesis that forest transition is occurring in Atlantic Forest landscapes.     

Forest Transition: Without Complexity,Without Scale

The forest transition is an empirical regularity of long-term changes in forest cover that has been observed in a number of countries and large regions. In the February 2007 issue of The Professional Geographer, Stephen Perz addressed the theoretical explanations that have been advanced to explain forest transition in his article entitled, “Grand Theory and Context-Specificity in the Study of Forest Dynamics: Forest Transition Theory and Other Directions.” Perz criticizes forest transition theory, and suggests possible remedies. This article takes issue with Perz's critique, as well as with the proposed remedies.     

Forest transition and biogeographic meaning of the current laurel forest landscape in Canary Islands,Spain

This study provides a geographical synthesis of the current natural landscape dynamics of the Canarian laurel forest based on the results of a biogeographic study of its structure, composition, and dynamics. Historical socioeconomic changes and recent environmental conservation strategies have led to natural forest dynamics that make it necessary to change our current scientific conception of the Canarian laurel forest landscape. According to the forest transition theory, in the protected areas of Anaga and Teno Rural Parks (Tenerife) and Garajonay National Park (La Gomera), the forest reaction to the gradual abandonment of economic activity reveals how strongly human activity has shaped the features of the laurel forest, which traditionally has been considered to be relatively untouched by humankind. How natural disturbances have affected this forest over the past few years has also contributed to a better understanding of its dynamics. This study explains the key patterns of spontaneous dynamics in the Canarian laurel forest to enrich our understanding of this forest and its landscape, while highlighting the importance of human activity as the catalyst for its current vigorous dynamics.     

中国农村宅基地转型的理论与证实

土地利用转型是土地利用变化的表现形式之一,也是由IGBP和IHDP联合发起的全球土地研究计划 (GLP) 的重要研究内容。目前土地利用/覆被变化 (LUCC) 研究仍然有待进一步理论化,在学科综合与集成基础上提出的假设对土地变化科学显得尤为重要。土地利用转型研究需要寻求一种综合的方法,来对社会和环境变化的时间尺度和历史背景进行整合。通过分析特定时期内中国农村建房的影响因素及相应的管理政策,在了解中国农村建房发展过程的基础上,提出了中国农村宅基地转型趋势的理论假设：随着社会经济的发展,农村宅基地在增加的建设用地总量中所占比例将由高逐渐降低,直到这一比例趋向于一个固定值。最后运用长江沿线样带农村宅基地转型研究结果验证了该理论假设。     

耕地转型的研究路径探讨

当前,土地利用转型研究总体上处于“描述-解释”阶段,高度集中在森林转型研究领域及空间形态研究路径。学术界亟须推动土地利用转型研究向科学调控阶段发展。对此,本文尝试提出耕地转型的研究路径,以期带动土地利用转型研究领域向半人工半自然复合土地系统乃至人工土地系统拓展、研究路径向非空间形态延伸。耕地转型诊断可以从空间形态转型与功能形态转型两条路径开展。其中,前一路径关注耕地的空间分布及其收缩与扩张,可以从耕地数量变化或格局变化视角开展研究;后一路径关注耕地功能的变化过程,可以从外部性或政策演进视角开展研究。由社会-生态负反馈驱动的耕地功能形态转型,主导着由社会-经济动态驱动的耕地空间形态转型进程。据此,作者构建了耕地转型调控框架及其层次分析体系。     

Forest Cover Change in the Toledo District,Belize from 1975 to 1999: A Remote Sensing Approach*

Measuring land‐cover change is an essential part of sustainable conservation planning. This project uses Landsat MSS and ETM+ data to document forest cover change in the Toledo District, Belize, from 1975 to 1999 and provides an initial assessment of why these changes took place. Supervised and subpixel classification methods were employed. The results showed an aggregate forest loss of almost 10 percent, which is approximately 36,000 ha. Deforestation expanded significantly in the most populous Mayan areas of central Toledo District and along the Guatemalan border. Subpixel classification results showed that in 1999 the most densely forested areas were in northern Toledo District in the Maya Mountains.     

Evaluating the effects of land‐use development policies on ex‐urban forest cover: An integrated agent‐based GIS approach

We use a GIS‐based agent‐based model (ABM), named dynamic ecological exurban development (DEED), with spatial data in hypothetical scenarios to evaluate the individual and interacting effects of lot‐size zoning and municipal land‐acquisition strategies on possible forest‐cover outcomes in Scio Township, a municipality in Southeastern Michigan. Agent types, characteristics, behavioural methods, and landscape perceptions (i.e. landscape aesthetics) are empirically informed using survey data, spatial analyses, and a USDA methodology for mapping landscape aesthetic quality. Results from our scenario experiments computationally verified literature that show large lot‐size zoning policies lead to greater sprawl, and large lot‐size zoning policies can lead to increased forest cover, although we found this effect to be small relative to municipal land acquisition. The return on land acquisition for forest conservation was strongly affected by the location strategy used to select parcels for conservation. Furthermore, the location strategy for forest conservation land acquisition was more effective at increasing aggregate forest levels than the independent zoning policies, the quantity of area acquired for forest conservation, and any combination of the two. The results using an integrated GIS and ABM framework for evaluating land‐use development policies on forest cover provide additional insight into how these types of policies may act out over time and what aspects of the policies were more influential towards the goal of maximising forest cover.     

复杂系统理论与Agent模型在土地变化科学中的研究进展

基于复杂系统理论与Agent 模型,分别从理论与方法的角度梳理并总结了当前土地变化科学的研究进展。复杂系统理论为研究土地变化所处的“耦合的人类-自然系统”及其复杂性问题提供理论支撑;而基于Agent 的模拟作为研究复杂系统的重要工具,为传统土地变化模拟提供新的方法支持。当前,ABMs与土地变化模型相结合(ABM/LUCC),无论是模型构建还是模型应用均取得了显著进展。然而,其也存在诸多问题,尤其是理论与应用脱节,使很多建模者容易陷入“为建模而建模”的误区。此外,现有的ABM模型设计较为随意,模型间差异太大,不利于跨区域比较研究的开展。因此,虽然ABM是认识复杂系统的有效方法,但是建模之前离不开对系统复杂性的深入研究;基于Agent 的土地变化模拟的意义在于充分表达“人类-自然”系统的综合复杂关系,从而合理的预测土地变化(结构与功能) 的动态过程,解释并评价土地变化的可能影响。     

Drivers of forest change in Hoa Binh,Vietnam in the context of integration and globalization

This study identified spatial patterns of forest change in Hoa Binh, Vietnam, from 2005 to 2017 by integrating Landsat data and Geographic Information System (GIS) data. A Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR) model was adapted to analyse drivers of three types of forest change, including (i) deforestation and forest degradation, (ii) forest regrowth and (iii) plantation expansion. The results reveal that accessibility and local economic development were determinants of forest cover dynamics during the integration and globalization period and that increased population pressure and poverty were no longer the main factors in forest cover transition. Several key policies in this time period positively affected forest cover change, triggering private sector participation in developing the forest economy by including households and small and medium enterprises in particular. The findings of this study can provide learning points for the implementation of sustainable forest management policies in other Vietnamese provinces or in neighbouring countries. This research has provided an effective tool for visualizing human‐forest ecosystem interaction, and this tool can be applied to subsequent studies to determine causes of forest cover change at the provincial level in Vietnam.     

Land Changes Fostering Atlantic Forest Transition in Brazil: Evidence from the Paraíba Valley

The Atlantic Forest biome has only 13 percent of its pristine vegetation cover left. This article analyzes the consequences of land changes on forest cover in the Paraíba Valley, São Paulo state, Brazil, from 1985 to 2011. Multitemporal satellite image classifications were carried out to map eight land use and land cover classes. The forest cover increased from 2,696 km² in 1985 to 4,704 km² in 2011, mostly over areas of degraded pastures. The highest rates of afforestation were observed within protected areas around eucalyptus plantations. On the other hand, deforestation processes were concentrated on areas covered by secondary forests. Socioeconomic changes taking place in particular Brazilian settings, such as industrialization and agricultural modernization, allied to the Paraíba Valley's natural biophysical constraints for agricultural production, have led the region to experience a remarkable case of forest transition.     

When Fields Revert to Forest: Development and Spontaneous Reforestation in Post‐War Puerto Rico

During the past 50 years forests have recolonized extensive areas of Puerto Rico. Between 1950 and 1990 forest cover increased from 9% to 37% of the island's land area. In proportional terms more land has reverted to forest in Puerto Rico than anywhere else on earth during the second half of the twentieth century. This paper explores the geography of this process by matching changes in land cover with the characteristics of the land and communities in Puerto Rico. The reversion of agricultural lands to forest occurred most frequently in humid, upland, coffee‐growing regions characterized by heavy out‐migration and populations of smallholders who earned some of their income from off‐farm sources. These findings suggest that changes in non‐farm labor markets, as well as changes in the political economy of agriculture, have important impacts on the prospects for converting agricultural lands into forests.     

2000—2010年亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化及驱动力分析

土地利用/覆盖变化是全球变化研究的重要问题,而海岸带则是该领域研究的热点区域。以三套土地利用/覆盖数据（MCD12Q1、CCI-LC和GlobeLand30）为基础,采用基于一致性分析和模糊集合理论的数据融合方法,获取2000年和2010年亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖分类信息,进而分析土地利用/覆盖变化特征及驱动因素。结果表明：十年间亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化方式主要以耕地萎缩和林地扩张为主,其次是湿地扩张,再次是草地和裸地萎缩,最后是灌木地和人造地表扩张;土地利用/覆盖类型之间的相互转换面积较小,仅占研究区总面积的4.22%,其中分布面积占优势的变化类型为耕地–林地–草地相互转换、灌木地–裸地相互转换、林地转为湿地以及林地转为灌木地等。地形因素、气候分异等自然驱动力深刻影响着土地利用/覆盖变化的宏观格局,而人口压力增大、经济高速发展、政策的颁布与实施等人文驱动力则是推动十年间亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化的主要原因。     

京津冀地区1985–2000期间林地变化的时空格局及其影响因素（英文）

林地是维护生态安全,实现区域可持续发展的根本基础资源。林地变化可能导致一些生态环境问题,包括土壤侵蚀,水资源短缺,干旱加剧以及生物多样性的丧失。本文以景观生态学和逻辑回归模型为基础,探讨了京津冀地区1985-2000期间林地变化的时空格局及其影响因素。格局分析结果表明,林地景观破碎化正在下降和林地形状变得越来越规则。通过建立Logistic回归模型,这项研究旨在探讨这一区域1985-2000期间林地变化的重要变量。对于京津冀地区1985-2000期间林地变化而言,土壤有机质含量,坡度(5°),到最近村庄的距离以及人均国内生产总值是最重要的解释变量。研究表明,空间异质性会影响到林地变化的逻辑回归模型的可预测性。     

Forest dynamics and the importance of place in western Honduras

Analyses of landscape change using remotely sensed satellite imagery constitute a large component of forest transition research, allowing for assessments of large areas. In the western highlands of Honduras is an area of complex forest dynamics (～45,000 ha) that has seen significant forest regeneration in recent years. However, analysis of the larger region (～500,000 ha) shows net forest loss. The comparative aspects highlight the importance of site selection and scale in forest transition analysis, a process often ignored in the land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) and forest transition literature. Results also highlight the importance of analyzing human-induced fragmentation at a variety of selected sites and a range of spatial scales, and producing quality, accurate forest cover and change maps.     

SPATIO-TEMPORAL ASPECTS OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGES IN THE NIAH CATCHMENT, SARAWAK, MALAYSIA

This paper focuses on the large‐scale land use and land cover changes that have taken place in Sarawak state, East Malaysia over the three decades of 1972‐2002. Results are presented from a detailed land use and cover change (LUCC) study in the Niah River catchment using satellite imagery, questionnaire surveys and interviews. Successive waves of land cover changes have taken place. Large forest areas have been logged and gradually replaced by oil palm plantations, which now occupy more than 40 per cent of the total land area in the catchment. Concurrently, small‐scale farming systems have also changed. Formerly dominant Iban shifting cultivation practices are increasingly being replaced by cash crop production on permanent fields and impacted by off‐farm activities involving many ethnic groups. It is argued that land cover changes are continuous and complex processes involving a large number of variables which can be analysed for different time periods at various scales.     

A Local Example of Land‐Use Change: Southern Illinois—1807, 1938, and 1993*

This article provides an analysis of a wetland site in southern Illinois from presettlement to the present. The study area is part of the Cache River‐Cypress Creek Wetland, which has international importance, as recognized by the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands. Land‐cover data for 1807, 1938, and 1993 were created and analyzed with a geographic information system (GIS). Land‐use change by topographic setting (uplands, transitional, and bottomlands) and soil productivity was quantified and studied. Interviews with local experts informed this analysis. Results illustrate the complexity of environmental change and its driving forces. First, notable forest and swamp acreage was converted to cropland between 1807 and 1938 and, to a lesser degree, from 1938 to 1993. Second, there were land‐use variations by topographic region. Between 1807 and 1938, the largest transformation occurred in the uplands, with substantial acreage converted from forest to cropland. Between 1938 and 1993, however, agriculture decreased in the upland areas as hilly areas reverted to forest cover. At the same time, agriculture expanded in the bottomlands as this land was drained for farming. Third, there are interesting patterns within these categories of land‐use change, as soil productivity is an indicator of what lands were taken out of cropland and converted back to grassland and forest.     

Soy,Cotton, and the Final Atlantic Forest Frontier

From 1945 to 2000, the extent of Paraguay's Atlantic Forest was reduced from 73,000 to 12,000 square kilometers. Deforestation rates were exceptionally high from the late 1960s through to the end of the century. During this period, dual agricultural frontiers pushed into the region from both east and west, resulting in a production landscape defined by two principal commodities: soybeans and cotton. This article considers the expansion and contraction of these industries and addresses their impacts on the region's forest cover. Findings suggest that the role of cotton and smallholder agriculture has been greatly diminished as a driver of land cover change in the region since 1990. High rates of forest loss were sustained, however, partly as a result of continued pressure for agricultural expansion for soy production.     

ONE LAST STAND? FORESTS AND CHANGE ON ECUADOR'S EASTERN CORDILLERA

ABSTRACT. Tropical montane forests are known for their ecological importance. Most montane forests in Ecuador have been converted to agriculture, and those that remain are concentrated on the eastern cordillera. Understanding of land‐use‐land‐cover change in this ecological zone is inadequate. Using remote sensing (Landsat tm, spot ) and fieldwork, we document land‐use‐land‐cover change in two watersheds on Ecuador's eastern cordillera (Cañar Province). During the 1990s the region experienced a 0.58 percent annual rate of deforestation, but two areas within it show active signs of re/afforestation. Although conversion of forest to pasture for cattle grazing continues, human migration to the United States is likely to affect the trajectory of future land‐use‐land‐cover change.     

岷江上游近30年土地利用/覆被空间格局变化的图形信息分析

利用遥感的方法获取岷江上游1972-2000年土地利用／覆被状况及其动态变化数据,从图形表达与分析的角度人手,运用地理图形信息理论,结合GIS空间分析方法,探讨岷江上游近30a的土地利用空间格局变化的图形特征及其描述方法。研究认为：土地利用／覆被动态变化的图形信息是全面研究土地利用／覆被变化的一个有机组成成分,可以从图形的角度对土地利用／覆被变化信息进行挖掘;由于岷江上游人类活动对土地的扰动增加和土地的破碎度增加,该区重要的覆被类型——林地持续遭到破坏,林地的边缘趋于复杂化,反映了人文驱动力(包括人口压力、社会经济活动、政策调控等)对土地利用／覆被变化在30a时间尺度内的重要影响。要恢复和重建岷江上游生态屏障功能,必须提高全民的环境保护意识以及制定和执行相应的政策、法规,加强资源和环境的保护和合理利用,恢复森林、草地生态系统,搞好退耕还林还草,加强天然林保护以及大面积有规划的植树造林,控制畜牧数量,改良天然草地,治理退化草地,控制水土流失。