热带气旋及相关天气系统对上海强梅雨的影响分析

通过对1996年和1999年上海强梅雨的分析,发现在强梅雨年的梅雨期内140°E以西的西北太平洋上无热带气旋(以下简称TC)活动,使副高脊线和梅雨锋得以持久稳定,造成长江中下游地区的长时间强(多)梅雨。研究还表明,强梅雨年的副高脊线比常年偏北1～4个纬距,梅雨量的多少与副高、西风带系统的强弱、系统稳定控制的时间长短及其系统相互作用的位置有关。     

ANALYSIS OF INDICES FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN JIANGSU

By statistical research on the occurrence pattern of severe convective weather in Jiangsu province under the influence of tropical cyclones within a 10-year period (from 2001 to 2010), this paper discovers that among different severe convective weather, the occurrence frequency of short-range heavy precipitation is the highest, thunderstorms and gales come in second, and general thunderstorms rarely happen, while hailstorms and tornadoes never occur. The statistical results also showed that within the research period there are 21 tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting the Jiangsu area and most of them are in the stage of weakening to tropical depressions. Moreover, through studying indices for relevant cases of severe convection, it is discovered that their thresholds are lower than that of previous research, which indicated that convective instability and energy accumulation can easily lead to severe convective weather eventually due to the influence of TCs.     

热带气旋科学观测试验及研究进展概况

由于缺少针对热带气旋背景下的观测资料,使得目前对热带气旋发展演变机理的认识还很有限,这也是当前热带气旋机理研究及数值模式中物理过程参数化方案改进的主要瓶颈。在回顾国内外有关热带气旋的科学试验计划基础上,围绕以提升热带气旋路径和强度预报水平为主线,阐述了不断丰富和发展的热带气旋观测试验的科学目标。从大气观测和海洋观测两个方面,总结了包括飞机探测、下投式探空观测、海上观测平台、地面移动观测、浮标探测等针对热带气旋的观测技术发展概况。基于对热带气旋的观测资料分析,从热带气旋背景下海气相互作用及其对热带气旋的影响、热带气旋边界层结构特征、下投式探空资料在热带气旋研究中的应用等几个方面概述了当前最新的观测研究进展。最后,简要指出了热带气旋观测试验中存在的主要问题及未来发展方向。      

热带气旋外围环流和广州灾害性高温关系的研究

利用1983-2004年6-9月常规天气资料、广州单站数据和此期间热带气旋年鉴资料、NCEP／NCAR再分析资料,并定义连续3天或以上日最高气温≥35℃为一次灾害性高温天气过程,对广州灾害性高温天气和热带气旋活动的关系进行了分析,结果发现：（1）广州市的灾害性高温天气的出现和热带气旋外围环流紧密相关,且37℃以上的灾害性高温天气主要出现在广州市东南或偏东方向400—1600km范围内的洋面或海面有热带气旋活动时;（2）副热带高压控制下的强烈太阳辐射是广州灾害性高温出现的基础,而热带气旋外围下沉气流导致的强下沉增温是重要因素。     

THE RESEARCH ON RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OUTER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES AND HIGH TEMPERATURE WEATHER IN GUANGZHOU

Using historical synoptic data, the surface observation data of Guangzhou, the data in the Yearbook on Tropical Cyclones of P. R. China, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of geopotential height, vertical velocity from June to September over the years 1983 to 2004, and defining three days or more in succession with daily maximum temperature over 35°C as a process of high temperature weather, this work analyzes the relationship between the activity of tropical cyclones and the disastrous high temperature weather in Guangzhou. The result shows that disastrous high temperature weather in Guangzhou is closely related to the outer circulation of tropical cyclones, and high temperatures weather over 37°C occur mainly when tropical cyclones move in the range from 400 to 1600 km southeast or east to Guangzhou. Furthermore, rapid temperature increase with descending motion resulting from tropical cyclones is the major factor that induces disastrous high temperature weather in Guangzhou when the city is controlled by the subtropical high.     

影响福建热带气旋活动特征分析

分析了1960—2005年影响福建热带气旋(简称TC)的活动特征，结果表明：影响TC频数呈减少趋势；7—9月影响频数多，8月为最多；影响频次的空间分布呈东南-西北递减的带状分布；南海是影响TC生成频数最多的集中区域。分析了TC异常活动的环境场，在TC异常偏多年份，低层ITCZ位置偏北，西北太平洋(WNP)生成TC位置也较偏北，同时在中国东南沿海为异常的气旋性距平环流控制，非常有利于TC的生成和发展。对于低压环流影响年份，在WNP区域TC生成频数偏多偏北情况下影响中国东南沿海地区TC较频繁，则影响福建TC数偏多；反之，ITCZ明显偏弱，中国东南沿海为异常的反气旋性距平环流控制时，影响福建TC数偏少。对亚洲地区500 hPa大气环流分析发现，影响福建TC异常偏多(少)年份，副热带高压位置偏北(南)。     

赤道西太平洋暖池次表层水温变化对热带气旋的影响

分析了西太平洋暖池和南海次表层水温变化对TC的影响，研究结果表明：当赤道西太平洋暖池次表层水温夏半年持续出现正(负)距平时，西北太平洋生成的TC个数比常年偏多(少)是主要现象，这种现象极值年份尤其明显，对南海1℃(指南海生成的TC，下同)的个数影响不明显，西北太平洋和南海生成TC的时间比常年提早(推迟)。当南海北部次表层水温夏季和秋季持续出现正(负)距平时，南海TC比常年偏多(少)。TC对南海和东海的影响趋势是一致的，但所受影响的程度东海比南海更为强烈。原因是东海台风波浪比南海高、海面气温比南海低、相对湿度比南海小，故导致SST急速下降。     

STUDY ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN 2004 AND THE CAUSATION

In this paper, we summarized the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TC) activity over the western North Pacific in 2004 and analyzed their causation. Compared with the normal, the annual frequency of TC in 2004 was slightly higher, tropical cyclones in 2004 had a longer life span and occurred in a concentrated period, the source of TC were situated eastward; in all tracks of TC, the recurvature tracks took up larger proportion, the landfall regions of TC were located northward, which concentrated from East China to Japan. The primary causes were revealed as follows. Firstly, the intensity and area of the western North Pacific subtropical high was stronger and larger than usual respectively, and its ridge was frequently in the form of cells and stretched northwestward. Secondly, the convergence of intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) was reinforced and the convergence zone moved more eastward than average. Thirdly, the meridionality of the westerlies was larger than average and the cell-shaped ridge formed a saddle region, which is in favor of TC northward motion and recurature.     

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON INTENSITY CHANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

55-year (1949 - 2003) data sets are used to study the statistical characteristics in intensity change of the tropical cyclones (TC) over the western North Pacific. According to the mathematical meaning of average value and standard deviation, the abruptly intensifying, gradually intensifying, stable intensity, gradually weakening and abruptly weakening of TC intensity are defined and the statistical characteristics, such as inter-decadal variation, inter-annual variation, inter-monthly variation, and regional distribution, etc. are analyzed. Main results are as follows: (1) From 1949 to 2003, there were 1886 TCs, averaging at 34.29 TCs per year. After 1995, the number of TCs dropped dramatically with less than 30 per year. 3.56% of the total were abruptly intensifying samples, and 3.31% were weakening samples. (2) For the annual mean, all but the stable group tend to decrease with the shift of decades as far as the overall change of the 6-h isallobaric process is concerned. (3) The abruptly intensifying TC seldom occurs over mid- and high-latitude area (north of 30°N) and low-latitude area and sometimes occurs around the islands and continent. Basically there is no gradually intensifying of TC over mid- and high- latitude area (north of 30°N and west of 125°E), in offshore Chinese waters. The gradually weakening and abruptly weakening TCs usually occur offshore China, west of 125 °E, but seldom over low-latitude area (0 - 5°N).     

2004年西北太平洋热带气旋的活动特点与成因研究

对2004年台风汛期西北太平洋热带气旋的活动特点进行研究总结,进而对其成因做了分析。结果指出：2004年西北太平洋热带气旋主要特点是生成总数较常年略偏多,热带气旋生命史普遍较长、：生成时间相对集中、生成源地偏东,转向路径偏多,登陆气旋数多于常年平均值,登陆地段集中且偏北,集中在华东到日本一带。其成因在于：（1）副高面积偏大、强度偏强、位置偏北且西伸脊偏西,同时副高分布形态多呈块状,使得2004年台风的高频活动区向北偏移,直接对华东到日本一带造成威胁,乃至正面登陆影响;（2）澳大利亚高压强大,越赤道气流强,赤道辐合带辐合偏强、位置偏东,造成台风活动比较活跃且源地偏东;（3）西风带环流经向度较常年偏大而且副高多呈块状分布,东西两环副高之间形成的鞍型场有利于台风过此通道北上转向,导致转向台风偏多。     

STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON TROPICAL CYCLONES LANDFALL IN CHINA

With the data from the Tropical Cyclone Yearbooks between 1970 and 2001, statistical analyses were performed to study the climatic features of landfall TCs (noted as TCs hereafter) in China with particular attention focused on landfall frequency, locations, sustaining, decaying, transition, intensification and dissipation etc. The results indicate that the sustaining periods of TC over land are quite different for different landfall spots, and increased from Guangxi to Zhejiang. The most obvious decreasing of TC intensity occurs mainly within 12 hours after landfall. The stronger a TC is,the more it decays. The areas over which TCs are dissipated can be in Heilongjiang, the northernmost, and Yunnan, the westernmost. Besides, Guangxi is an area with high dissipating rate and subject to TC dissipation as compared with the other coastal regions.     

ANALYSIS OF CAUSATION OF ABNORMAL MOTION OF LANDING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN GUANGDONG

1 INTRODUCTION It is doubtless that TCs making landfalls on Guangdong are one of the important aspects of the research on and prediction of short-term climate changes for the province. With regard to the climate patterns of TCs motion and factors governin…     

NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF β-GYRES IN TROPICAL CYCLONES

1INTRODUCTIONEversincethe1940抯,thetropicalcyclone(TC)hasbeenviewedasapointvortexorrigidvortex.Thepredictionissummedupasoneforairflowintheambientfield.Themethodusuallysucceeds.Thesteeringtheoryfortheairflowbecomesitstheoreticalfoundation.Thoughwithsomesuccess,theactualtrackofTCmovementcanbemuchdeviatedfromthesteeringcurrent,asseeninroutineforecastpractice.Withoutmuchchangesintheambientsteeringcurrent,theTCcanhaveunexpectedchangesinthedirection,speedofmotionorintensity.Atypicalexamplewo…     

STATISTICAL CLASSIFICATION AND CHARACTERISTICS ANALYSIS OF BINARY TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN SUMMER: CONTRASTIVE ANALYSIS FOR ACTIVE AND INACTIVE YEARS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

Using the 1949-2007 western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) best-track data archived at the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration for the western North Pacific from 1949 to 2007,both the characteristics of binary and multiple TCs and samples of interactions among TCs and multi-TCs are identified and statistically analyzed.According to the various features of individual TC tracks and interacting tracks,seven distinct types are proposed to describe the binary system of TCs and their interaction samples.The mean trajectories of the west and east component of binary TCs in each type are obtained using a new cluster analysis technique.These types are then analyzed in terms of landfall process,occurrence seasonality,coexistent lifetime,especially the large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation.Finally,typical steering flows and conceptual models of the binary TCs at different phases are established based on six-hourly flow maps of the binary system and the averages are determined of the mean steering flow of ten representative binary TCs.Then,typical steering flows and conceptual models at the beginning,middle and final phase in each type are established to describe the large-scale circulation patterns of the binary system interaction types.     

A DYNAMICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE WIND FIELD IN TROPICAL CYCLONES

Based on the primitive equations in polar coordinates, supposing that parcel velocity in tropical cyclones is in linear variation and that the distribution of surface pressure agrees with the Fujita formula, a set of equations are derived, which describe the impact of perturbations of central pressure, position of tropical cyclones, direction and velocity of movement of tropical cyclones on the wind field. It is proved that the second order approximation of the kinetic energy of tropical cyclones can be described by the equations under linear approximation. Typhoon Wipha (2007) is selected to verify the above interpretation method, and the results show that the interpretation method of the wind field could give very good results before the landfall of tropical cyclones, while making no apparent improvement after the landfall. The dynamical interpretation method in this paper is applicable to improving the forecasts of the wind field of tropical cyclones close to the coast.     

OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS OF ASYMMETRIC DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES “CHANCHU” AND “PRAPIROON” MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH CHINA COAST

Observational data of mesoscale surface weather stations and weather radars of Guangdong province are employed to analyze the asymmetric distribution of convection prior to, during and after landfall for tropical cyclones of Chanchu and Prapiroon making landfall on the south China coast in 2006. The results showed that strong convection is located in the eastern and northern sectors of the landfalling Chanchu and Prapiroon, namely in the front and right portions of the TC tracks, for a period of time starting from 12 h prior to landfall to 6 h after it. Their convection also had distinct differences in the vertical direction. The analysis indicated that although the landfall of Chanchu and Prapiroon has the same asymmetric distribution of convection, the causes are not exactly the same. The asymmetric distribution of convection in the case of Chanchu is mainly correlated with the impacts of a strong environmental vertical wind shear, low-level horizontal wind shear, and low-level convergence and divergence. In the case of Prapiroon, however, the asymmetric distribution of convection is mainly associated with the impacts of low-level convergence and divergence.     

THE EFFECT OF WARM POOL THERMAL STATES ON TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

The influence of thermal states in the warm pool on tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) is investigated. There are fewer typhoons during warm years of the warm pool in which tropical storms tend to form in the northwest quadrant and move westward. Inversely, typhoons tend to recurve northeastward to the southeast of Japan and increase in number in the southeast quadrant during cold years. Based on composite analyses, circulation-induced dynamic factors rather than thermal factors are identified as being responsible for TCs activities. During the warm state, the monsoon trough retreats westwards, which leads to anomalous vorticity in low-level and divergence in high-level in the western part of west Pacific. Above-normal TCs activity is found in this area. Furthermore, wind anomalies at 500 hPa determine the main track types. On the contrary, when the warm pool is in cold state, the atmospheric circulation is responsible for the formation of more TCs in the southeast quadrant and recurving track.     

2006年西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数和源地异常的成因分析

根据西北太平洋编号台风资料、Hadley中心的SST资料和NCAR/NCEP的再分析资料,对2006年西北太平洋热带气旋活动特点进行分析,就台风季热带气旋的活动特征和成因进行研究。(1) 海表温度的异常引起的沃克环流异常造成了2006年热带气旋频数相对于多年平均偏少。(2) 越赤道气流强并且有较好对流匹配的区域易生成热带气旋。较强的对流运动,良好的越赤道气流、环流条件和切变条件的匹配是2006年8月较其它月份生成较多热带气旋的原因。(3) 异常东南风环流有利于引导生成的热带气旋以西北路径西行进入我国沿海并登陆。异常西风环流不利于热带气旋向西运动登陆我国。(4) 垂直风切变异常太大,不利于气旋生成和发展。     

ENSO事件影响下登陆中国热带气旋年际变化特征的分位数回归分析

热带气旋每年对我国东南沿海地区造成很大的经济损失和人员伤亡。为了解登陆中国热带气旋的强度、位置和生成频率等特征,基于1949—2018年西北太平洋热带气旋数据,采用分位数回归的方法分析了登陆中国热带气旋活动年际变化特征规律。结果发现:登陆中国热带气旋活动年际变化特征受ENSO事件的影响,El Ni?o年、La Ni?a年和正常年登陆中国热带气旋的最大风速、最长生命期和生成位置的年际变化规律存在较大差异,且这种差异程度和热带气旋强度有关;此外,在不同的分位数下登陆中国热带气旋活动特征的年际变化趋势系数并不相同。研究结果可以为我国的东南沿海热带气旋数据分析和趋势预测提供有效的参考。