Evaluation of public participation in reconstruction of Bam,Iran, after the 2003 earthquake

In the midst of the ever-increasing natural and human-induced disasters, where many of the preparedness and mitigation measures show inefficiencies, there is narrow margin for decision-makers to make mistakes by misallocating budgets, designing infeasible reconstruction plans, and in other terms, making decisions not in line with the public preferences. In particular, public participation in post-disaster measures seems undoubtedly necessary to reduce the possible economic, social, political, and cultural conflicts around the stressful community after a major disaster. This paper aims at evaluating the role of public participation in increasing the reconstruction phase efficiency through a case study of the reconstruction process in Bam, a southeastern Iranian city, after the 2003 earthquake. It is attempted to identify the major motivators of the public participation through a combination of quantitative and qualitative studies. Statistical data are generated through a set of questionnaires being filled by a number of 200 randomly selected survivors. The numerical results were then discussed through the Focus Group technique sessions to determine the main contributors to the public participation. It is later found that the answers are found among the performance of the reconstruction authorities, financial policies, emotional resiliency of the survivors, public information mechanisms, public satisfaction, the pace of reconstruction, and temporary housing policies.     

National policy of watershed management and flood mitigation after the 921 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan

Registering a 7.3 magnitude on the Richter scale, the 921 Chi-Chi Earthquake that struck central Taiwan on September 21, 1999 left the island nation with fragile soils, frequent floods, and debris flow, further weakening homeland resources. Taiwan’s dense population had forced its residents to use mountain hills for agriculture and development. The 92-Flood in 2004, which incurred vast monetary losses and human casualties, caused the government to rethink its strategy for land use. In order to use land in a more efficient and in an eco-friendly manner, the Council for Economic Planning and Development, Executive Yuan of the Taiwanese government proposed the “Land Recovery Strategy and Action Plan” in 2006. Its core concept was aimed at “respecting, and adapting to, nature.” To achieve this goal, a hillside watershed management and flood mitigation policy was proposed. Factors of safety, economy, and ecology were included in the policy. Both strategies and practical measures to be implemented were organized in a chart for better understanding and for reference by other countries with similar conditions.     

Tectonic setting and geological manifestations of the 2003 Altai earthquake

Geological and geomorphic manifestations of the source of the earthquake that occurred in the southern Gorny Altai on September 27, 2003, are described. This earthquake, the strongest over the entire history of seismological observations, caused damage to buildings and structures in the Chuya and Kurai basins and was accompanied by exposure of its source at the surface with formation of a system of seismic ruptures trending in the northwestern direction. The linear zone of seismic rupture was traced for more than 70 km on the northern slopes of the North Chuya and South Chuya ranges, and a developed network of related splays was found. The secondary (gravitational and vibrational) seismic dislocations were expressed as downfalls, landslides, and gryphons in the pleistoseist zone. These dislocations occur over an area of approximately 90 × 25 km² that broadly coincides with the region of quakes having intensities of IX–VII. The paleoseismogeological investigations performed in the source region of the 2003 earthquake have shown that seven seismic events with M = 7.0–8.0 occurred in its source over the last 5000 years with a 500-to 900-year recurrence period. The study of the tectonic setting of the earthquake source in the Gorny Altai has allowed northward tracing of the main seismically active zones of the Mongolian and Gobi Altai, where earthquakes with a magnitude M > 7.0 occurred repeatedly, in particular, during the 20th century, and combination of all mountain systems of the Greater Altai into a common high-magnitude seismotectonic province.     

Earthquake prediction activities and Damavand earthquake precursor test site in Iran

Iran has long been known as one of the most seismically active areas of the world, and it frequently suffers destructive and catastrophic earthquakes that cause heavy loss of human life and widespread damage. The Alborz region in the northern part of Iran is an active EW trending mountain belt of 100 km wide and 600 km long. The Alborz range is bounded by the Talesh Mountains to the west and the Kopet Dagh Mountains to the east and consists of several sedimentary and volcanic layers of Cambrian to Eocene ages that were deformed during the late Cenozoic collision. Several active faults affect the central Alborz. The main active faults are the North Tehran and Mosha faults. The Mosha fault is one of the major active faults in the central Alborz as shown by its strong historical seismicity and its clear morphological signature. Situated in the vicinity of Tehran city, this 150-km-long N100° E trending fault represents an important potential seismic source. For earthquake monitoring and possible future prediction/precursory purposes, a test site has been established in the Alborz mountain region. The proximity to the capital of Iran with its high population density, low frequency but high magnitude earthquake occurrence, and active faults with their historical earthquake events have been considered as the main criteria for this selection. In addition, within the test site, there are hot springs and deep water wells that can be used for physico-chemical and radon gas analysis for earthquake precursory studies. The present activities include magnetic measurements; application of methodology for identification of seismogenic nodes for earthquakes of M ≥ 6.0 in the Alborz region developed by International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, IIEPT RAS, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow (IIEPT&MG RAS); a feasibility study using a dense seismic network for identification of future locations of seismic monitoring stations and application of short-term prediction of medium- and large-size earthquakes is based on Markov and extended self-similarity analysis of seismic data. The establishment of the test site is ongoing, and the methodology has been selected based on the IASPEI evaluation report on the most important precursors with installation of (i) a local dense seismic network consisting of 25 short-period seismometers, (ii) a GPS network consisting of eight instruments with 70 stations, (iii) magnetic network with four instruments, and (iv) radon gas and a physico-chemical study on the springs and deep water wells.     

A new model for the prediction of earthquake ground-motion duration in Iran

The paper proposes a new empirical model to estimate earthquake ground-motion duration, which significantly influences the damage potential of an earthquake. The paper is concerned with significant duration parameters that are defined as the time intervals between which specified values of Arias intensity are reached. In the proposed model, significant duration parameters have been expressed as a function of moment magnitude, closest site-source distance, and site condition. The predictive model has been developed based on a database of earthquake ground-motion records in Iran, containing 286 records up to the year 2007, and a random-effect regression procedure. The result of the proposed model has been compared with that of other published models. It has been found that the proposed model can predict earthquake ground-motion duration in Iran with adequate accuracy.     

Application of time- and magnitude-predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in Iran

The regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied successfully in diverse regions of the world to describe the occurrence of main shocks. In the current study, the model has been calibrated against the historical and instrumental catalog of Iranian earthquakes. The Iranian plateau is divided into 15 seismogenic provinces; then, the interevent times for strong main shocks have been determined for each one. The empirical relations reported by Papazachos et al. (Tectonophysics 271:295–323, 1997a) for the Alpine–Himalayan belt (including Iran) were adopted except for the constant terms that were calculated separately for every seismotectonic area. By using the calibrated equations developed for the study area and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of the last main shocks in each seismogenic source, the time-dependent conditional probabilities of occurrence P(?t) of the next main shocks during next 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years as well as the magnitude of the expected main shocks (M _f) have been estimated. The immediate probability (within next 10 years) of a large main shock is estimated to be high and moderate (>35 %) in all regions except zones 9 (M _f = 5.8) and 15 (M _f = 6.1). However, it should be noted that the probabilities have been estimated for different M _f values in 15 regions. Comparing the model predictions with the actual earthquake occurrence rates shows the good performance of the model for Iranian plateau.     

The 2003 earthquake swarm in Anjalankoski, south-eastern Finland

During May 2003 a swarm of 16 earthquakes (M_L = 0.6–2.1) occurred at Anjalankoski, south-eastern Finland. The activity lasted for three weeks, but additional two events were observed at the same location in October 2004. A comparison of the waveforms indicated that the source mechanisms and the hypocentres of the events were nearly identical.A relative earthquake location method was applied to better define the geometry of the cluster and to identify the fault plane associated with the earthquakes. The relocated earthquakes aligned along an ENE–WSW trending zone, with a lateral extent of about 1.0 km by 0.8 km. The relative location and the waveform-modelling of depth sensitive surface wave (Rg) and S-to-P converted body wave (sP) phases indicated that the events were unusually shallow, most likely occurring within the first 2 km of the surface. The revised historical earthquake data confirm that shallow swarm-type seismicity is characteristic to the area.The focal mechanism obtained as a composite solution of the five strongest events corresponds to dip-slip motion along a nearly vertical fault plane (strike = 250°, dip = 80°, rake = 90°). The dip and strike of this nodal plane as well as the relocated hypocentres coincide with an internal intrusion boundary of the Vyborg rapakivi batholith.The events occur under a compressive local stress field, which is explained by large gravitational potential energy differences and ridge-push forces. Pore-pressure changes caused by intrusion of ground water and/or radon gas into the fracture zones are suggested to govern the swarm-type earthquake activity.     

Application of neural network and ANFIS model for earthquake occurrence in Iran

This study examined the spatial-temporal variations in seismicity parameters for the September 10^th, 2008 Qeshm earthquake in south Iran. To this aim, artificial neural networks and Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) were applied. The supervised Radial Basis Function (RBF) network and ANFIS model were implemented because they have shown the efficiency in classification and prediction problems. The eight seismicity parameters were calculated to analyze spatial and temporal seismicity pattern. The data preprocessing that included normalization and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) techniques was led before the data was fed into the RBF network and ANFIS model. Although the accuracy of RBF network and ANFIS model could be evaluated rather similar, the RBF exhibited a higher performance than the ANFIS for prediction of the epicenter area and time of occurrence of the 2008 Qeshm main shock. A proper training on the basis of RBF network and ANFIS model might adopt the physical understanding between seismic data and generate more effective results than conventional prediction approaches. The results of the present study indicated that the RBF neural networks and the ANFIS models could be suitable tools for accurate prediction of epicenteral area as well as time of occurrence of forthcoming strong earthquakes in active seismogenic areas.     

3-D velocity structure of the 2003 Bam earthquake area (SE Iran): Existence of a low-Poisson's ratio layer and its relation to heavy damage

To understand the generation mechanism of the Bam earthquake (Mw 6.6), we studied three-dimensional V_P, V_S and Poisson's ratio (σ) structures in the Bam area by using the seismic tomography method. We inverted accurate arrival times of 19490 P waves and 19015 S waves from 2396 aftershocks recorded by a temporal high-sensitivity seismic network. The 3-D velocity structure of the seismogenic region was well resolved to a depth of 14 km with significant velocity variations of up to 5%. The general pattern of aftershock distribution was relocated by using the 3-D structure to delineate a source fault for a length of approximately 20 km along a line 4.5 km west of the known geological Bam fault; this source fault dips steeply westward and strikes a nearly north–south line. The main shallow cluster of aftershocks south of the city of Bam is distributed just under the minor surface ruptures in the desert. The 3-D velocity structure shows a thick layer of high V_S and low σ (minimum: 0.20) at a depth range of 2–6 km. The deeper layer, with a thickness of about 2 km, appears to have a low V_S and high σ (maximum: 0.28) from 6 km depth beneath Bam to a depth of 9 km south of the city. The inferred increase of Poisson's ratio from 2 to 10 km in depth may be associated with a change from rigid and SiO₂-rich rock to more mafic rock, including the probable existence of fluids. The main seismic gap of aftershock distribution at the depth range of 2 to 7 km coincides well with the large slip zone in the shallow thick layer of high V_S and low σ. The large slip propagating mainly in the shallow rigid layer may be one of the main reasons why the Bam area suffered heavy damage.     

Seismotectonic features of the September 24, 1999 Ahram earthquake in the Zagros,Iran

The September 24, 1999 Ahram Earthquake in southwestern Iran was moderate in energy (M = 5.0–5.5 from different sources) and did not entail significant destruction and casualities. The tectonic position of the source zone, surficial seismic dislocations, and results of macroseismic and seismological study of this seismic event in the junction zone of the Zagros Fold System and the piedmont plain are described in the paper, including data on rejuvenated ancient ruptures exposed in two trenches excavated across the strike of the regional Kazerun-Borazjan Fault. One of the trenches was driven a few months before and the other a year after this seismic event. The conclusion is drawn that new deformations in the Quaternary near-surface sediments observed at the walls of both trenches may be regarded as unusual seismic ruptures of the Ahram earthquake. These ruptures, described as proved primary seismic dislocations of such a moderate seismic event, are a unique phenomenon in the world seismotectonic practice. The localization of the earthquake source zone in the Kazerun-Borazjan Fault Zone with complex kinematics makes it possible to study the internal structure of one of the most important tectonic lines of the Zagros Fold Region.     

Monitoring and evaluation of the urban reconstruction process in Bam,Iran, after the 2003 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 6.6 earthquake

In this study, we tracked and analyzed the reconstruction process in Bam, Iran, after the city was struck by an earthquake with a M _w of 6.6 on December 26, 2003. We adopted three approaches to comprehensively assess the city’s post-earthquake reconstruction and to shed light on the progress and sustainability of disaster recovery projects. We applied the following methodology. First, we obtained official statistics and reports that included quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the reconstruction process to evaluate the overall outcome of the government’s reconstruction projects. Second, we examined photographs taken during field surveys conducted in 2004, 2007, and 2014 to assess changes within the city. Last, we analyzed three satellite images of Bam—the first taken 3 months before the earthquake, the second immediately after the earthquake, and the third 8 years after the earthquake—to assess the progress of reconstruction work and changes in land cover and land use. The results indicated that considerable progress had been made in reconstructing some of the damaged areas. However, progress was relatively slow in severely damaged areas.     

Hierarchical properties of the tectonic stress field in the source region of the 2003 Chuya earthquake

Local tectonic stress field have been calculated based on aftershock focal mechanisms using materials of epicentral studies with temporary networks of stations in the epicentral area of the 2003 Chuya earthquake. The originality of this work is that the stress state is studied invoking earthquakes with large differences in energy and using highly accurate data on the location and depth in the analysis of events. The main result is the selection of two hierarchical levels of the stress field. It is shown that the stress state determined from data on large earthquakes is homogeneous (horizontal shear) throughout the aftershock zone, and the stress state determined from data on small events varies according to the block structure of the aftershock region.     

Initiatives for earthquake disaster risk management in the Kathmandu Valley

Situated over the Himalayan tectonic zone, Kathmandu Valley as a lake in geological past has a long history of destructive earthquakes. In recent years, the earthquake risk of the valley has significantly increased due mainly to uncontrolled development, poor construction practices with no earthquake safety consideration, and lack of awareness among the general public and government authorities. Implementation of land use plan and building codes, strengthening of design and construction regulations, relocation of communities in risky areas, and conduction of public awareness programs are suitable means of earthquake disaster risk management practice. Kathmandu, the capital of Nepal, is still lacking earthquake disaster risk management plans. So, this paper highlights some initiatives adopted by both governmental and nongovernmental organizations of Nepal to manage earthquake disaster risk in the Kathmandu Valley. It provides some comprehensive information on recent initiatives of earthquake disaster risk management in the valley and also highlights the outcomes and challenges.     

Clockwise paleomagnetic rotations in northeastern Iran: Major implications on recent geodynamic evolution of outer sectors of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone

In this study, an extensive paleomagnetic sampling (70 sites) was carried out in north-eastern Iran with the aim of reconstructing the rotation history of the outer margin of the Eurasia-Arabia collision area represented by the Ala-Dagh, Binalud and Kopeh-Dagh mountain belts. We sampled the red beds units from the Lower Cretaceous Shurijeh Fm. and from the Middle-Upper Miocene Upper Red Fm (URF). Paleomagnetic results from all the sampled areas show a homogeneous amount of CW rotations measured in the above-mentioned Formations. These paleomagnetic results suggest that the oroclinal bending process that caused the curvature of Alborz mountain belt in north Iran after the Middle-Late Miocene, also extended to the Ala-Dagh, Binalud and Kopeh-Dagh mountain belts, at the north-eastern border of the Arabia-Eurasia deforming zone.Based on our paleomagnetic results and on GPS, seismological, geomorphological and structural data available in the area, a hypothesis of tectonic evolution of the northern Iran-South Caspian Basin area, from Middle-Late Miocene to Present, is here proposed. In this model, the initiation of the oroclinal bending processes in northern Iran occurred about 6–4 myr ago, related to the impinging of North Iran between the South Caspian block and the southern margin of the Turan platform, driven by the northward subduction of the South Caspian basement under the Aspheron-Balkhan Sill. As paleomagnetic results from this study show a pattern of vertical axis rotations that is inconsistent with the present-day kinematics of the northern Iranian blocks as described by seismicity and GPS data, we suggest that the tectonic processes responsible for the bending of northern Iran mountain chains are no longer active and that the westward motion of the South Caspian basin, and therefore the initiation of opposite strike-slip motion along the Ashk-Abad and Shahrud faults, occurred very recently (∼2 My ago). We therefore propose that initiation of the northward subduction of the South Caspian basin below the Apsheron-Balkhan Sill and the westward extrusion of the South Caspian block did not occur at the same time, with the former occurring between the late Miocene and the Pliocene, and the latter during the Pleistocene.     

岷县漳县地震灾后重建场地黄土震害预测

通过对取自2013年岷县漳县Ms6.6地震影响区8个灾后重建安置点的黄土进行室内动、静三轴试验,研究了极震区2个灾后重建场地黄土的动、静力学特性,分析了地震影响区内3个灾后重建安置场地的黄土斜坡稳定性和5个场地黄土的震陷性;并结合安置点的地形地貌特点,对灾后重建场地潜在黄土地震地质灾害进行了预测。结果表明:极震区黄土在静力作用下具有明显的应力强化特性,在循环动荷载作用下具有刚度迅速衰减和粘滞性急剧增强的特征;MX-2和MX-3重建场地的斜坡在地震作用下存在失稳的可能;Ⅷ度以上地震作用下,MX-1、ZX-1、LT-1和LX-1场地存在产生不同破坏等级震陷灾害的风险;Ⅷ度以上地震作用下MX-1场地的黄土可产生液化,存在导致山体液化滑坡、泥流以及建构筑物地基失稳和不均匀沉降等地震灾害的风险。     

Coupling effect of ozone column and atmospheric infrared sounder data reveal evidence of earthquake precursor phenomena of Bam earthquake,Iran

Understanding the source mechanism of earthquakes may be the key to predict earthquakes. The testing of radioactive radiations and reactionary hypothesis of gases before and after quake events can help predict and monitor earthquake occurrence. In this study, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the column ozone (O₃) were applied to evaluate the December 26, 2003 earthquake of Bam city in western Iran. The results show that ozone concentration (column density) decreased about 30 DU and or 807?×?10E15/cm² molecules. Using high-resolution AIRS data for the study area, we were able to discriminate gases that formed and changed before the main shock at least a day before the occurrence of the quake in Bam.     

Liquefaction,building settlement,and residual strength of two residential areas during the 2016 southern Taiwan earthquake

Acta Geotechnica - On February 6, 2016, a moment magnitude (Mw) 6.4 earthquake struck southern Taiwan and devastated the Tainan area. Although the intensity of ground shaking was only moderate...     

改革开放以来我国农村宅基地管理政策体系的梳理与思考

新型城镇化背景下加强农村宅基地管理、促进城乡资源要素流动具有重要意义。本文从法律框架、党中央政策精神以及政府规范性文件三个方面梳理了农村宅基地管理政策,分析认为现有管理政策体系难以协调宅基地福利性与财产性之间的本质矛盾,难以有效地应对宅基地利用过程中的复杂性;创新宅基地管理政策体系,促进与保障农村深化改革发展成为现阶段的重要任务。     

A geospatial model for the optimization grazing management in semi-arid rangeland of Iran

Extensive livestock grazing even in unsuitable land has increasingly grown in most parts of semi-arid rangeland. Therefore, it is of paramount importance to identify suitable land for livestock grazing for optimum utilization while causing minimum impact to the environment. This paper adapted the schematic model based on the concepts presented by the Food and Agriculture Organization of suitability analysis for optimal grazing management in semi-arid rangeland in Iran. Factors affecting extensive grazing were determined and incorporated into the model. Semi-arid rangeland with variable such as climate and other agents were examined for common types of animal grazing and the advantages and limitations were elicited. Many ecosystem components affect land suitability for livestock grazing but due to time and funding restrictions, the most important and feasible elements were investigated. Within the model parameters, three submodels including water accessibility source, forage production, and erosion sensitivity were considered. Suitable areas at four levels of suitability were determined using geographic information systems. This suitability modeling approach was adopted due to its simplicity and the minimal time required for transforming and analyzing datasets. The most important reducing factors in model suitability were found to be: (a) land use and vegetation cover (in relation to soil erosion sensitivity), (b) the amount of the available forage in comparison with the total production, and (c) the existence of less palatability plants among the pasture plant species (forage production suitability). The results of the study would be beneficial to rangeland managers in devising measures more wisely to cope with the limitations and enhance the health and productivity of the rangelands.