Source parameters of intermediate-depth Vrancea (Romania) earthquakes from empirical Green's functions modeling

Several source parameters (source dimensions, slip, particle velocity, static and dynamic stress drop) are determined for the moderate-size October 27th, 2004 (M_W = 5.8), and the large August 30th, 1986 (M_W = 7.1) and March 4th, 1977 (M_W = 7.4) Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth earthquakes. For this purpose, the empirical Green's functions method of Irikura [e.g. Irikura, K. (1983). Semi-Empirical Estimation of Strong Ground Motions during Large Earthquakes. Bull. Dis. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., 33, Part 2, No. 298, 63–104., Irikura, K. (1986). Prediction of strong acceleration motions using empirical Green's function, in Proceedings of the 7th Japan earthquake engineering symposium, 151–156., Irikura, K. (1999). Techniques for the simulation of strong ground motion and deterministic seismic hazard analysis, in Proceedings of the advanced study course seismotectonic and microzonation techniques in earthquake engineering: integrated training in earthquake risk reduction practices, Kefallinia, 453–554.] is used to generate synthetic time series from recordings of smaller events (with 4 ≤ M_W ≤ 5) in order to estimate several parameters characterizing the so-called strong motion generation area, which is defined as an extended area with homogeneous slip and rise time and, for crustal earthquakes, corresponds to an asperity of about 100 bar stress release [Miyake, H., T. Iwata and K. Irikura (2003). Source characterization for broadband ground-motion simulation: Kinematic heterogeneous source model and strong motion generation area. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 93, 2531–2545.] The parameters are obtained by acceleration envelope and displacement waveform inversion for the 2004 and 1986 events and MSK intensity pattern inversion for the 1977 event using a genetic algorithm. The strong motion recordings of the analyzed Vrancea earthquakes as well as the MSK intensity pattern of the 1977 earthquake can be well reproduced using relatively small strong motion generation areas, which corresponds to small asperities with high stress drops (300–1200 bar) and high particle velocities (3–5 m/s). These results imply a very efficient high-frequency radiation, which has to be taken into account for strong ground motion prediction, and indicate that the intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes are inherently different from crustal events.     

Pathways to seismic hazard evaluation: Extreme and characteristic earthquakes in areas of low and high seismicity

The general philosophy of seismic hazard evaluation described here is appropriate for selection of seismic input to regional earthquake engineering codes prior to detailed on-site inspections and geotechnical assessments. Some probabilistic seismic hazard methodologies which can be applied in areas of low and high seismicity, are briefly described to emphasise the main equations with specimen results. Three aspects of hazard assessment are explored by different pathways. These include the analysis of regional earthquake catalogues to obtain magnitude recurrence, particularly using Gumbel extreme value statistics. This is extended to assess ground shaking hazard which is usually sought by earthquake engineers. Thirdly, the concept of earthquake perceptibility is developed, leading to the identification of an earthquake magnitude or type which is characteristic of a region. This most perceptible earthquake is most likely to be felt at any site in a region and provides an earthquake selection criterion which can be used in aseismic design of noncritical structures. Because there are several methods of seismic hazard evaluation, the view is expressed that it is sensible for practical purposes to seek results from different methods or different pathways to the hazard evaluation.Paper presented at the Commission of the European Communities' School on Earthquake Hazard Evaluation, Athens, and at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, held in Sofia, 1988.Now at School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, University Plain, Norwich NR4 7TJ, U.K.     

Attenuation in Southeastern Carpathians area: Result of upper mantle inhomogeneity

The systematic analysis of seismograms recorded on the Romanian territory using Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes shows a strong asymmetric pattern relative to the epicentral area: on one side, in the Transylvanian Basin and the Eastern Carpathians (approximately along the inner volcanic chain), the amplitudes are reduced by a factor of 20 on average and the high frequencies are attenuated, in contrast with the other side, in the foreland platform. This pattern is explained by a significant attenuation increase caused by a strong lateral variation of the structure in the upper mantle, immediately towards NW of the Vrancea seismic active volume. This region corresponds to the most recent volcanic activity in the Persani Mountains and with the low-velocity body adjacent toward NW to the high-velocity body subducted beneath Vrancea area as indicated by seismic tomography and heat flow results. The CALIXTO'99 tomography experiment, deployed for 6 months in 1999, provides the largest number of observations for Vrancea earthquakes ever recorded on the Romanian territory. We select data from 8 earthquakes generated in this time interval in the Vrancea nest, which were recorded with signal / noise ratio greater than 5 by at least 25 stations. All of them are small- to moderate-magnitude events (3.6 ≤ M_w ≤ 4.2). The attenuation is much more important in the high-frequency range (> 1 Hz), than at low frequencies. Since the large Vrancea earthquakes can radiate significant energy in the low-frequency range (< 1 Hz), our results show that the seismic hazard level is much more uniform all over the Romanian territory in the low-frequency range than in the high-frequency range.     

A Moore's cellular automaton model to get probabilistic seismic hazard maps for different magnitude releases: A case study for Greece

Cellular automata are simple mathematical idealizations of natural systems and they supply useful models for many investigations in natural science. Examples include sandpile models, forest fire models, and slider block models used in seismology. In the present paper, they have been used for establishing temporal relations between the energy releases of the seismic events that occurred in neighboring parts of the crust. The catalogue is divided into time intervals, and the region is divided into cells which are declared active or inactive by means of a threshold energy release criterion. Thus, a pattern of active and inactive cells which evolves over time is determined. A stochastic cellular automaton is constructed starting with these patterns, in order to simulate their spatio-temporal evolution, by supposing a Moore's neighborhood interaction between the cells. The best model is chosen by maximizing the mutual information between the past and the future states. Finally, a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map is given for the different energy releases considered. The method has been applied to the Greece catalogue from 1900 to 1999. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for energies corresponding to m = 4 and m = 5 are close to the real seismicity after the data in that area, and they correspond to a background seismicity in the whole area. This background seismicity seems to cover the whole area in periods of around 25–50 years. The optimum cell size is in agreement with other studies; for m > 6 the optimum area increases according to the threshold of clear spatial resolution, and the active cells are not so clustered. The results are coherent with other hazard studies in the zone and with the seismicity recorded after the data set, as well as provide an interaction model which points out the large scale nature of the earthquake occurrence.     

Particle motions in a physical model of shallow angle thrust faulting

A physical model of thrust faulting has been constructed out of elastic foam rubber. The thrust wedge has an angle of 25°., and is forced from the back by a steel-hydraulic system of effectively infinite rigidity, analogous to the force exerted by tectonic plates. The observed particle motions show many features different from those commonly assumed in dislocation models of subduction thrusts. Interface waves associated with fault opening propagate along the thrust plane (from the back) and temporarily decouple the overlying hanging wall plate from the foot wall. Because of the geometry of the reflecting fault boundary, and the free surface (also reflecting), energy is trapped in the wedge and, as a consequence, the particle motions and energy in the hanging wall are much greater than in the foot wall. The interface wave and the energy trapped in the upper plate propagate up the wedge and break out at the toe of the thrust with a spectacular increase in motions. If this model is analogous to the real earth, it suggests that some common assumptions in dislocation modeling may be incorrect. The model may explain apparent missing energy radiated to teleseismic distances, the anomalously low number of empirical Green’s functions needed to model teleseismicp waves, and the evidence of intense shaking on the hanging wall toe of some thrust fault earthquakes. The results support the suggestion that interface waves may explain the lack of high frictional heat generation from thrust faults, and may explain the ‘paradox of large overthrusts’. The results also suggest that the seismic hazard of great subduction thrust earthquakes and continental shallow angle thrust faults might in some cases be seriously underestimated.     

Late Holocene earthquakes in southern Apennine: paleoseismology of the Caggiano fault

Although southern Apennines are characterized by the strongest crustal earthquakes of central-western Mediterranean region, local active tectonics is still poorly known, at least for seismogenic fault-recognition is concerned. Research carried out in the Maddalena Mts. (southeast of Irpinia, the region struck by the M _w=6.9, 1980 earthquake) indicates historical ruptures along a 17-km-long, N120° normal fault system (Caggiano fault). The system is characterized by a bedrock fault scarp carved in carbonate rocks, which continues laterally into a retreating and eroded smoothed scarp, affecting the clayey-siliciclastic units, and by smart scarps and discontinuous free-faces in Holocene cemented slope-debris and in modern alluvial fan deposits. The geometry of the structure in depth has been depicted by means of electrical resistivity tomography, while paleoseismic analysis carried out in three trenches revealed surface-faulting events during the past 7 ky BP (¹⁴C age), the latest occurred in the past 2 ky BP (¹⁴C age) and, probably, during/after slope-debris deposition related to the little ice age (∼1400–1800 a.d.). Preliminary evaluation accounts for minimum slip rates of 0.3–0.4 mm/year, which is the same order of rates estimated for many active faults along the Apennine chain. Associated earthquakes might be in the order of M _w=6.6, to be compared to the historical events occurred in the area (e.g., 1561 and 1857 p.p. earthquakes).     

Potential of future seismogenesis in Hebei Province (NE China) due to stress interactions between strong earthquakes

Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ⩾ 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years.     

Application of a modified pattern informatics method to forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes in the central Japan

We propose a modification of the Pattern Informatics (PI) method that has been developed for forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes. This forecast is based on analyzing the space–time patterns of past earthquakes to find possible locations where future large earthquakes are expected to occur. A characteristic of our modification is that the effect of errors in the locations of past earthquakes on the output forecast is reduced. We apply the modified and original methods to seismicity in the central part of Japan and compared the forecast performances. We also invoke the Relative Intensity (RI) of seismic activity and randomized catalogs to constitute null hypotheses. We do statistical tests using the Molchan and Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) diagrams and the log-likelihoods and show that the forecast for using the modified PI method is generally better than the competing original-PI forecast and the forecasts from the null hypotheses. Using the bootstrap technique with Monte-Carlo simulations, we further confirm that earthquake sequences simulated based on the modified-PI forecast can be statistically the same as the real earthquake sequence so that the forecast is acceptable. The main and innovative science in this paper is the modification of the PI method and the demonstration of its applicability, showing a considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting tool.     

A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.     

BP模型在区域滑坡灾害风险预测中的应用

滑坡灾害具有整体性、动态性、开放性和随机性的特点,而人工神经网络属于非线性动态系统,具有符合区域滑坡灾害风险预测的研究特点。应用BP模型,建立了区域滑坡灾害风险的预测流程,并与GIS技术相结合,对三峡水库蓄水条件下巴东新县城的滑坡灾害进行了危险性、易损性、风险性综合预测研究,证明了BP模型在区域滑坡灾害风险预测中的应用可行性,同时指出了所存在的问题及可能解决的途径。     

Seismic hazard in East Africa: An example of the application of incomplete and uncertain data

Earthquake hazard parameters maximum regional magnitude M _max and annual activity rate , and the b parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for parts of East Africa. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data available (the catalog used here covers the interval 1880–1979). In addition, the uncertainty involved in magnitude determination and thresholds of completeness were taken into account. The hazard-parameter determination was performed for two study areas corresponding to segments of the eastern and western branches of the East African rift system. The results for these areas show differences that can be partly explained through the characteristics of the data.     

Statistical analysis of the largest possible earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast for selected return periods

ABSTRACT

In this work, we have studied the largest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast by using the principles of Extreme Value Analysis based on its two approaches: Block Maxima and Peaks-over-Threshold. First, before modelling the recorded earthquakes, the K-means clustering technique was applied to determine a classification according to the level of magnitude of the earthquakes. Then, models based on the Extreme Value theory of earthquake magnitudes were developed for each of the four clusters that were found, and finally, the best-fitted models were those known as Fréchet and Gumbel ones. The zone with the greatest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast is located between the north of the province of Manabí and the south of the province of Esmeraldas, with a return period of 50 years for an earthquake with magnitude greater than 7.7 M_W.     

Long-term prediction of intermediate depth earthquakes in the southern Aegean region based on a time-predictable model

Repeat times of strong intermediate depth (60 km h 180 km) earthquakes have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data for six seismogenic sources in the Benioff zone of the southern Aegean area. For four of these sources, at least two interevent times (three mainshocks) are available for each source. By using the repeat times for these four sources, the following relation has been determined: logT _t = 0.20M _min + 0.19M _p +a, whereT _t is the repeat time (in years),M _min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest earthquake considered,M _p the magnitude of the preceding mainshock and a parameter which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.91 was determined for this relation, which indicates that the time predictable model holds to a satisfactory degree for the strong mainshocks of intermediate focal depth in the southern Aegean.By assuming that the ratioT/T _t, whereT is the observed andT _t the calculated repeat time, follows a lognormal distribution, the conditional probabilities for the occurrence of strong (M _s 6.5) and very strong (M _s 7.5) earthquakes during the period 1991–2001 in these four seismogenic sources have been calculated. These probabilities are very high (P > 0.9) for the strong and high (P > 0.5) for the very strong intermediate depth earthquakes which occur in the three sources of the shallower (h < 100 km) part of the Benioff zone where coupling occurs between the front parts of the Mediterranean lithosphere (downgoing) and the Aegean lithosphere.     

泰斯模型的统计分析求解

本文利用统计分析来求解水文地质参数,原理简单,解是唯一的。其基本思想是利用非稳定流抽水试验获得的s-t系列资料,以泰斯公式为参考模型,建立试验系列的非线性统计模型,求解导水系数T和贮水系数μ 。统计模型既可利用目前先进的软件辅助求解,亦可利用一台可编程计算器完成计算。本文借助一个实例,应用MATLAB语言的统计分析工具的多元回归分析模块进行求解,获得了理想的结果。     

Different approaches to the seismic hazard of Sannio-Matese (Southern Italy)

The seismic hazard of Sannio-Matese is calculated using a new seismogenetic zoning of southern Italy of seven areas and different, azimuth-dependent, attenuation laws. Various approaches (Gumbel's first and third asymptotic distribution, Cornell) lead to similar results for the different exposure times considered (100 and 200 years) and probability levels (37 and 68%). The present seismic regulation proposed in 1980 by the Italian National Council for Researches, and based on a different approach, is, in general, confirmed by the results.     

Microzonation of Zeytinburnu region with respect to soil amplification: A case study

A microzonation study is performed as a part of the Zeytinburnu Pilot Project within the framework of the Earthquake Master Plan for Istanbul to determine the effects of local soil conditions on the earthquake forces that will act on structures. For this purpose, detailed geological and geotechnical studies are conducted at the site, a geological map which demonstrates the local geological features of the site is prepared, and the site is classified with respect to the dynamic behaviour based on the data gathered from the soil borings. In order to investigate the effects of local soil conditions on the dynamic behaviour, site response analyses are performed with the computer code EERA by utilizing the findings of field and laboratory investigations. The behaviour of the region during a probable earthquake is investigated through one dimensional response analyses and microzonation maps are prepared with respect to ground shaking intensity in accordance with the new microzonation manual [Ansal, A., Laue, J., Buchheister, J., Erdik, M., Springman, S., Studer, J., and Koksal, D., 2004. “Site characterization and site amplification for a seismic microzonation study in Turkey” 11th Int. Conference on Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering and 3rd Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering, San Francisco; Studer, J. and Ansal, A., 2004. Belediyeler için Sismik Mikrobölgeleme El Kitabı, Araştırma Raporu, Afet İşleri Genel Müdürlüğü, Bayındırlık ve İskan Bakanlığı, Afet Risk Yönetimi Dünya Enstitüsü].     

Development and application of a GIS-based tool for earthquake-induced hazard prediction

An integrated GIS-based tool (GTIS) was constructed to estimate site effects related to the earthquake hazards in the Gyeongju area of Korea. To build the GTIS for the study area, intensive site investigations and geotechnical data collections were performed and a walk-over site survey was additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data in accordance with the procedure developed to build the GTIS. For practical applications of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects associated with the amplification of ground motion, seismic microzoning maps of the characteristic site period and the mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy addressing earthquake-induced hazards. Additionally, based on one-dimensional site response analyses, various seismic microzoning maps for short- and mid-period amplification potentials were created for the study area. Case studies of seismic microzonations in the Gyeongju area verified the usefulness of the GTIS for predicting seismic hazards in the region.     

Integration of P- and SH-wave high-resolution seismic reflection and micro-gravity techniques to improve interpretation of shallow subsurface structure: New Madrid seismic zone

Shallow high-resolution seismic reflection surveys have traditionally been restricted to either compressional (P) or horizontally polarized shear (SH) waves in order to produce 2-D images of subsurface structure. The northernmost Mississippi embayment and coincident New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) provide an ideal laboratory to study the experimental use of integrating P- and SH-wave seismic profiles, integrated, where practicable, with micro-gravity data. In this area, the relation between “deeper” deformation of Paleozoic bedrock associated with the formation of the Reelfoot rift and NMSZ seismicity and “shallower” deformation of overlying sediments has remained elusive, but could be revealed using integrated P- and SH-wave reflection. Surface expressions of deformation are almost non-existent in this region, which makes seismic reflection surveying the only means of detecting structures that are possibly pertinent to seismic hazard assessment. Since P- and SH-waves respond differently to the rock and fluid properties and travel at dissimilar speeds, the resulting seismic profiles provide complementary views of the subsurface based on different levels of resolution and imaging capability. P-wave profiles acquired in southwestern Illinois and western Kentucky (USA) detect faulting of deep, Paleozoic bedrock and Cretaceous reflectors while coincident SH-wave surveys show that this deformation propagates higher into overlying Tertiary and Quaternary strata. Forward modeling of micro-gravity data acquired along one of the seismic profiles further supports an interpretation of faulting of bedrock and Cretaceous strata. The integration of the two seismic and the micro-gravity methods therefore increases the scope for investigating the relation between the older and younger deformation in an area of critical seismic hazard.