On an anisotropic attenuation law of the macroseismic intensity

An anisotropic attenuation law of the macroseismic intensity has been deduced, congruent with an anisotropic modelling of macroseismic fields. The results, obtained by analysing a set of earthquakes in Eastern Sicily and Southern Calabria, show a greater adaptability to the observed data as compared with those deduced using isotropic attenuation laws modified to take the anisotropy into account.     

The determination of the epicentre by a vectorial modelling of macroseismic intensity distribution

A vectorial modelling of observed macroseismic intensity aimed at the analytical determination of the epicentre is proposed here. The methodology is based on the determination of a plane system of vectors which characterises the macroseismic intensity distribution. The epicentre of each seismic event considered is determined as the centre of this vector system by an analytical expression which is independent from all possible directions of seismic energy propagation. The analysis of the intensity distribution is carried out by a new model called a macroseismic plane, different from the one known as macroseismic field, formed by a set of small areas built around the observed intensity points; hence its name.With the proposed methodology, some earthquakes in southern Italy and eastern Sicily are analysed calculating their epicentres, also for distributions of observed intensity which are particularly complex.     

The correlation between the macroseismic attenuation trend and the geo-structural framework; The calabropeloritan arc as an example

After describing attempts at perfecting a methodology for studying isotropic and anisotropic macroseismic fields in previous works, the authors here try to identify the causes of anisotropy in the context of the “new basement tectonics”.The seismic data are taken both from reconstructions of the macroseismic fields of historic events, by means of a critical analysis of the data, and from macroseismic fields of recent events surveyed by the authors. These data are correlated to the structural framework obtained through recent neotectonic studies and the lineament distribution traced on satellite images and using the “shadow” method. Generally the direction of elongation of the mesoseismic area is closely dependent on the source parameters and can be associated with recent and present-day systems outlined by the latest neotectonic studies.The best correlation is observed, however, with the lineament pattern obtained using the “shadow” method: the domains of the lineaments associated with the preferential trend of the macroseismic field show, in the rose diagram of cumulative number, values of prevalence and kurtosis higher than average; in the cumulative lengths diagram, on the other hand, they show prevalence maxima and, in particular, kurtosis maxima which are all the higher the more the anisotropic trend of field is accentuated. Using the “Giant Griffith Cracks” model for the lineaments, it can be deduced that the swarms refer to fracture systems with greater vertical development generated during the most recent tectonic phases.Finally, from a study of the dynamic characteristics of the elastic waves, that are the main agents responsible for macroseismic effects, it can observed that the wavelength order of magnitude is comparable with that of the linear parameters in the “warp” formed by the “Giant Cracks”. It can, thus, be deduced that the strong absorption of energy can be determined by the fracture swarm when the wave propagation occurs orthogonally to the swarm.     

Atténuation de l'intensité macrosismique pour la France métropolitaine : importance de l'intensité épicentrale

The main result of this work is to show that macroseismic intensity decay with distance strongly depends on the epicentral intensity. An attenuation law that takes this parameter into account is proposed for Metropolitan France, from the analysis of SISFRANCE macroseismic database. Such a model significantly reduces the difference between observed and theoretical intensities. A map of the attenuation variations is also set up for Metropolitan France. No major site effects are observed, but at a broad scale, young Alpine regions display a stronger attenuation than old Hercynian regions. To cite this article: P. Arroucau et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Macroseismic fields of the main Friuli shocks of 1976

Isosieismal maps of the main Friuli shock and of three large aftershocks were compiled on the scale 1 : 1 million as a joint effort of seismologists from countries shaken by the earthquakes. All macroseismic fields are irregular and display different damping in different directions. Depths of foci and attenuation coefficients are calculated.     

On macroseismic attenuation parameters in the comparison of theoretical seismic hazard maps for Southern Calabria and Eastern Sicily (Southern Italy)

For two different zonations of the Calabro-Sicilian region the macroseismic intensity attenuation parameters are computed using the Grandori model.Some modifications to this relation are proposed here in order to allow its applicability also to those cases in which the data set available for each source zone does not present three successive epicentral intensity levels (I ₀) as required for its application.Maps of theoretical distribution of maximum expected intensities were plotted for both zonations adopted, in order to test the reliability, also using other attenuation models.The results of the analysis show how the proposed modifications to the Grandori relation allow the macroseismic intensity attenuation modelling even in cases in which only one intensity level is available.Finally, the comparison of theoretical maximum expected intensity distribution maps, computed for different attenuation models and seismogenic zonations, shows that the maps plotted using the Grandori model and the zonation adopted by G.N.D.T. (Gruppo Nazionale Difesa dai Terremoti - C.N.R. Italy) are more reliable.     

An Anisotropic Modelling for the Determination of Regional Attenuation Coefficients

The anisotropic attenuation of macroseismic intensity for a seismogenetic zone is dealt with using a new modelling of intensity distribution. The analysis, carried out starting from the intensity maps of the earthquakes of different seismogenetic zones of Central and Southern Italy, allows the determination of the attenuation coefficients for each seismogenetic zone by an anisotropic attenuation law. The obtained results show the reliability of the proposed modelling within seismic hazard evaluation studies.     

Studies on the contribution of some geological factors to seismic hazard

The present study is primarily meant to make a separation of the amplification effects in the intensity distribution within the macroseismic field function of their different causes, i.e. the activation of some regional tectonic lines during the seismic motion and local seismogeological conditions.With this end in view, the methodology used consists of filtering the direct macroseismic observations by means of the weighted mean-values method and outlining the regional and local field anomalies.The regional anomaly map of the macroseismic field of the 4 March 1977 Vrancea earthquake, including the southern and south-eastern part of the Outer Carpathian Zone, has been analyzed. Some dislocations, located in the platform basement, which functioned as seismic energy amplifiers during the event, have been identified.The results obtained can be used in seismotectonic and microzoning studies.Paper presented at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Sofia, 1988.     

Hazard mapping based on macroseismic data considering the influence of geological conditions

The object of this study is to consider directly the influence of regional geological conditions on the assessment of seismic hazard. It is assumed that macroseismic data at individual locations contain, in an average way, the influence of geological conditions.A Data Base referring to 199 historical (5) and instrumental (194, in the 1947–1993 period) events with macroseismic information in 1195 locations of Portugal was built. For any given seismic event, whenever macroseismic information was available at a location (town, village, etc.), an EMS-92 intensity value was estimated. To each one of those locations a geological unit, representing the most common type of soil, was assigned, based on the Geological Portuguese Map at a scale 1:500 000; the geological units were grouped into three categories: soft, intermediate and hard soils.The Data Base was used to determine the attenuation laws in terms of macroseismic intensity for the three different geological site conditions, using multiple linear regression analysis. The reasonability of the laws was tested by (i) checking residual distributions and (ii) comparing the map of isoseismals of important earthquakes with the isoseismals generated by the attenuation curves derived for each one of the three different soil classes, taking into consideration the soil class of each site. The main results of attenuation modeling are: high dispersion on macroseismic intensity data; all the models predict intensity values, for short hypocentral distances, lower than the ones observed; and for some important analyzed earthquakes and for the observed range of distances, the models confirm the expectancy that macroseismic intensity increases from hard to soft soil.The approach to obtain the hazard assessment at each location consisted in the use of the attenuation law specifically derived for the class of soil of that particular location. This method, which considers the influence of the regional geology, was illustrated with the mapping of hazard for the country for several return periods. Comparison with previous maps not taking into consideration the regional geological conditions emphasizes the importance of this new parameter. It can be concluded that (i) soil segmentation is clearly the cause for hazard increase in the region to the north of Lisbon, especially at sites with soft and intermediate soils as the ones in lower Tagus valley; the maximum increase on hazard is, in any case, less than one degree; (ii) when geological conditions are disregarded in the attenuation regression analysis, hazard pattern is similar to the one obtained for the case of hard soil everywhere.     

Seismic hazard in the Sannio-Matese area of Italy

The assessment of seismic hazard at five selected sites in the Sannio-Matese region is based on the computer program SRAMSC. Owing to the extensive historical data base for the output parameter, the MSK intensiy is chosen. The seismicity model is made up of five narrow area seismic sources. Circular or elliptical macroseismic fields are assigned to individual sources. A generalized Kövesligethy equation is used for this purpose as the attenuation relationship. The study reveals similar and a rather high hazard at the sites at Benevento, Boiano, and Melfi, which are located in the zone of highest seismic activity. At the Pomigliano and Lucera sites, the assessed hazard is much lower.     

Preliminary Quantitative Assessment of Earthquake Casualties and Damages

Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number of casualties within areas of different intensity is computed using an application developed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment, taking advantage of the possibilities of such a system for the treatment of space-distributed data. The casualty rate, defined as the number of killed people divided by the number of inhabitants of the affected region, is also computed and we show its variation for some urban concentrations with different population density. For a rough preliminary evaluation of the direct economic cost derived from the damages, equally through a GIS-based tool, we take into account the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out for sites near important cities located in a seismically active zone of Spain, thus contributing to an easier taking of decisions in emergency preparedness planning, contemporary earthquake engineering and seismic risk prevention.     

Preliminary results of a macroseismic survey of the Colfiorito sequence (Central Italy)

Umbria-Marche region (Central Italy) has been interested by a seismic sequence, which caused a large amount of damage within an extensive area (around 5000 km²). The sequence produced eight shocks with magnitude higher than 5.0, the largest of them occurring on September 26, UTC 09:40, M₁ = 5.8. The incidence of many shocks with a magnitude higher than 4.0 contributed to the creation of a damage pattern that was in evolution for more than one month. Such seismic behavior motivated field operators to perform a real-time macroseismic survey to update the data set. One of the major objectives was to differentiate the effects pertaining to each of the largest shocks. In this paper we present the macroseismic survey performed during the sequence, along with some preliminary results inferred. Intensity points of seven of the main shocks are shown, together with the filtered macroseismic fields produced following the application of specific statistical methods. Finally, consideration is given to the comparison of these study results with corresponding tectonic and geological data.     

Estimation of seismic hazard with allowance for noncircular isoseismals of arbitrary orientation

A new mathematical model describing the field of macroseismic intensity has been elaborated. It is based on elliptic isoseismals. The orientation of the main axes of elliptic isoseismals depends on the direction of stretching of the main geological structures on the investigated territory.The new model of a macroseismic field was applied to the territory of Eastern Uzbekistan. Some results of macroseismic investigations of the effect of large regional earthquakes were used as initial data.A noncircular model of a macroseismic field was introduced into the integral of the seismic shakability of Riznichenko and, according to the model, a macroseismic shakability map for the territory of Eastern Uzbekistan was computed in isolines of the long-term mean return period of vibrations for the intensity I 8.Paper presented at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Sofia, 1988.     

Intensity distribution of M 4.9 Haryana–Delhi border earthquake

In this study, we have prepared an intensity map based on macroseismic survey and all the available information from print and electronic media of damage and other effects due to March 05, 2012, M 4.9 Bahadurgarh (Haryana–Delhi border) earthquake and interpreted them to obtain modified Mercalli intensities (MMI) at over 62 locations surrounding the Haryana and Delhi. We have cross-checked the damage information from print and electronic media in the field at 25 sites within 110 km surrounding the epicenter for validation. Based on the questionnaire which is used in macroseismic survey and personal judgment, intensities were assigned accordingly as per physical survey at 25 sites and for rest based on media reporting. A maximum intensity of VI was assigned to this seismic event. Isoseismals of V and VI have been fully covered in the field observations. Beside this, some of the points have also been covered for isoseismal IV and isoseismal III and rest are based on media report only. The intensity map reveals several interesting features. Elliptically elongated shape of intensity map shows that most of the slightly damaged areas are concentrated toward the northwestern side of the epicenter having intensity V which may be due to directivity or site effects. A regression relation has also been derived between intensity and epicentral distance. The derived attenuation relation will be useful for assessing damage of a potential future earthquake (earthquake scenario–based planning purposes) for the Delhi NCR region.     

Macroseismic intensity attenuation for crustal sources on romanian territory and adjacent areas

The macroseismic intensity attenuation (m.i.a.) laws for the main seismic provinces with crustal foci of the Romanian territory and adjacent areas were established. The input data consist of MSK-64 intensities of 18 earthquakes with epicentral/maximum intensity in the range V to X degrees (MSK scale), whose isoseismal maps were available.The attenuation was analyzed as a function of distance and azimuth and from the three main attenuation formulas (logarithmic, exponential, and power-law) (the last one was preferred, as it best fits the observed data) and, consequently, were used for each seismogenic region. The bulk of derived equations is intended to be further used in the assessment of the seismic hazards of Romania.     

Macroseismic study of the Potenza (southern Italy), earthquake of 5 May 1990

The aim of this paper is to define the macroseismic field of the 5 May 1990 Potenza earthquake, analysing about 3000 questionnaire forms together with the results of the direct inquiries carried out in the field. The study evidences the seismic vulnerability of the Potenza district and of the whole of southern Italy in general, due to the low resistance characteristics of the old constructions and a lack of seismic prevention. Besides, geomorphological failure increases hazardous situations at the earthquake's occurrence. This earthquake provided a good test for checking and improving the ING macroseismic data collection procedures.     

Assessment of seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest,Romania

In this paper, seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, are proposed and assessed. Bucharest has one of the highest seismic risk levels in Europe, and this is due to a combination of relatively high seismic hazard and a building stock built mainly before the devastating Vrancea 1977 earthquake. In this study, the seismic risk of Bucharest is assessed using the most recent information regarding the characteristics of the residential building stock. The ground motion amplitudes are evaluated starting from random fields obtained by coupling a ground motion model derived for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source with a spatial correlation model. The seismic risk evaluation method applied in this study is based on the well-known macroseismic method. For several structural typologies, the vulnerability parameters are evaluated based on a damage survey performed on 18,000 buildings in Bucharest after the March 1977 earthquake. Subsequently, the risk metrics are compared with those from other studies in the literature that apply a different risk assessment methodology in order to gain a better view of the uncertainties associated with a seismic risk study at city level. Finally, the impact of several Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios is evaluated and the results show that the earthquake which has the closest epicenter to Bucharest appears to be the most damaging.     

Assessment of seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest,Romania

In this paper, seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, are proposed and assessed. Bucharest has one of the highest seismic risk levels in Europe, and this is due to a combination of relatively high seismic hazard and a building stock built mainly before the devastating Vrancea 1977 earthquake. In this study, the seismic risk of Bucharest is assessed using the most recent information regarding the characteristics of the residential building stock. The ground motion amplitudes are evaluated starting from random fields obtained by coupling a ground motion model derived for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source with a spatial correlation model. The seismic risk evaluation method applied in this study is based on the well-known macroseismic method. For several structural typologies, the vulnerability parameters are evaluated based on a damage survey performed on 18,000 buildings in Bucharest after the March 1977 earthquake. Subsequently, the risk metrics are compared with those from other studies in the literature that apply a different risk assessment methodology in order to gain a better view of the uncertainties associated with a seismic risk study at city level. Finally, the impact of several Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios is evaluated and the results show that the earthquake which has the closest epicenter to Bucharest appears to be the most damaging.