基于深度学习的太阳F_10.7辐射通量的短期预报研究

F_10.7太阳辐射通量作为输入参数被广泛运用于大气经验模型、电离层模型等空间环境模型,其预报精度直接影响航天器轨道预报精度.采用时间序列法统计了太阳辐射通量F10.7指数和太阳黑子数(SSN)的关系,给出了两者之间的线性关系,在此基础上提出了一种基于长短时记忆神经网络(Long and Short Term Memory,LSTM)的预报方法,方法结合了54 d太阳辐射通量指数和SSN历史数据来对F_10.7进行未来7 d短期预报,并与其他预报方法的预报结果进行了比较,结果表明:(1)所建短期预报7 d方法模型的性能优于美国空间天气预报中心(Space Weather Prediction Center, SWPC)的方法,预测值和观测值的相关系数(CC)达到0.96,同时其均方根误差约为11.62个太阳辐射通量单位(sfu),预报结果的均方根误差(RMSE)低于SWPC,下降约11%;(2)对预测的23、24周太阳活动年结果统计表明,太阳活动高年的第7 d F10.7指数预报平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)最优可达12.9%以内,低年最优可达2...     

Solar radio filtering algorithm based on improved long short-term memory

The effective observation of burst events in solar radio research has been impeded by various interference signals,especially interference signals with a wide frequency range and high intensity,as they can partially or completely obscure the observation of burst events.Image processing methods that directly remove the interference signal channels and subtract the average of the interference signal channel are not suitable for processing all types of interference signals.This paper proposes the use of a specific kind of recurrent neural networks,called long short-term memory networks,to predict the value of the radio frequency interference signals with high intensity of the burst event in the solar radio spectrum.The predicted interference can then be removed in accordance with the principle that signals can be linearly added.Therefore,predicted value is subtracted from the data containing the burst event signals and the RFI signals(The radio frequency interference signals to be processed in this article refer to the signal of the broadcast signal that can be received in the frequency range,the signal transmitted by the mobile phone,and the signal transmitted by the sea vessel,and the like) to remove the interference.Then,in order to reduce the error caused by the stepwise prediction in the network and further improve the prediction accuracy,this paper analyzes the characteristics of the value of the radio interference and applies the digital mapping method to convert the prediction problem into the classification problem in the time series.The experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively remove the radio interference in the solar spectrum and clearly show the burst events.     

Fine structure of the S-component spectrum of the solar radio emission in the frequency range 5.0–7.0 GHz

Fine structure observations of the frequency spectrum of the S-component in the solar radio emission are described. Measurements were carried out in August 1976 and August 1977 using a 22 m parabolic antenna and a radiospectrograph operating over the frequency range 5.0 to 7.0 GHz, with the resolution 60 MHz. Measurement techniques are described. Fine structures (150–800 MHz) as great as 20% of the local source radiation level were observed in radio emission spectra of a number of these sources. The spectrum structures observed were changed in the process of active region development.     

太阳射电爆发现象中的电子回旋脉泽辐射

太阳射电爆发(Solar Radio Burst, SRB)是太阳高能电子与背景等离子体相互作用产生的感应辐射现象,其多样的动力学谱类型及其复杂的精细结构反映了辐射源区磁等离子体结构状态丰富的物理信息,而相关辐射机制则是解读相关物理信息的关键工具.长期以来,在SRB辐射机制的研究中一直存在着争议不决的两种主要机制,即等离子体辐射机制和电子回旋脉泽(Electron Cyclotron Maser, ECM)辐射机制.近年来,针对传统的ECM辐射机制应用到SRB现象时遇到的一些主要困难,发展了由幂律谱电子低能截止驱动和包含快电子束自生阿尔文波效应的新型ECM驱动模型,并成功应用于解释各类不同SRB动力学谱的形成机制.基于这些新型的ECM辐射模型,系统地总结了ECM辐射机制在各种不同类型SRB现象中的应用,并对它们不同动力学谱结构的形成给出了一致统一的物理解释.     

明安图射电频谱日像仪图像的强度定标方法

明安图射电频谱日像仪(Mingantu Spectral Radioheliograph, MUSER)能够在0.4--15GHz超宽频带内实现高时间、高空间、高频率分辨率的太阳射电成像. 而射电亮温度是描述太阳物理过程的一个重要的参数, 在研究不同射电辐射机制、太阳磁场以及太阳爆发过程中非热粒子加速等问题上有着非常重要的作用, 因此必须对MUSER观测的图像进行亮温度定标. 将介绍一种适用于射电日像仪图像强度定标的方法. 太阳射电图像中包含着太阳圆盘的结构信息, 利用射电日像仪短基线的可视度函数拟合第一类贝塞尔函数, 可以得到图像中宁静太阳圆盘的射电半径和强度, 再利用瑞利-金斯定律和每天的太阳射电流量可以计算得到每天图像的定标因子$G_c$, 从而实现对MUSER图像强度的定标. 将该方法应用到MUSER的实际观测数据中, 包括宁静太阳和有太阳射电爆发等不同的情况, $G_c$的误差基本不超过10%, 得到的宁静太阳亮温度与其他宁静太阳的结果具有较高的相关性, 表明了此方法的可行性和有效性.     

Spectral features of burst radio emission over the solar cycle

We have investigated common burst spectral features for the 20th cycle of solar activity. The maximum daily radio fluxes in 8 frequency ranges are analysed. For every year the classification of these daily spectra is obtained by cluster analysis methods. There are two spectral minima for average spectra of clusters (in frequency ranges 4–3 and 0.5–0.25 GHz). As a rule their positions do not change during the solar cycle.Every annual spectrum of weak bursts has three minima (in frequency ranges 4–3, 2–1, and 0.5–0.25 GHz). The positions of these minima remain invariable during the solar cycle. But anuual spectra of strong bursts depend essentially on the phase of solar activity.The basic features of most burst spectra can be explained by gyrosynchrotron radiation of thermal and nonthermal electrons and plasma radiation at the plasma frequency and its second harmonic.     

A study of the Northern polar region of the sun using the microwave observations of the total eclipse of March 29, 2006

We report the results of unique observations of the solar eclipse of March 29, 2006 over a wide radio-wavelength range from 1 to 50 cm made with the large RATAN-600 stationary radio telescope during the maximum eclipse phase performed using the method of the source transit across the fixed beam pattern. The multifunctional opportunities of the radio telescope allowed observations to be performed simultaneously in a part of the Northern sector of RATAN-600 and in the Southern-sector plus periscope mode using all the available receiving equipment at the corresponding secondary mirrors. At the time of maximum eclipse phase a narrow 1—3-arcsec wide crescent-shaped band near the North Solar Pole remained visible out of the entire solar disk covered by the Moon. We achieved high flux sensitivity, which allowed us to discover a large polar radio source located above the North Solar Pole and obtain detailed data on its radiation and spatial structure. Moreover, we detected optically thin radiation of the solar corona at the brightness-temperature level of several K or several tens of K. We find this radiation to extend beyond the solar limb out to the heliocentric distances of one solar radius. These data are unique in that they are not contaminated by scattered radiation of the solar radio disk, which usually shows up in ordinary observations. We are the first to obtain a detailed spectrum of the radiation of a high-latitude prominence at many wavelengths with a 1% frequency resolution in the microwave range, which allowed us to estimate its magnetic field at a number of levels in the lower corona.     

Analysis of radio astronomy bands using CALLISTO spectrometer at Malaysia-UKM station

The e-CALLISTO system is a worldwide network that aims to observe solar radio emission for astronomical science. CALLISTO instruments have been deployed worldwide in various locations that together can provide continuous observation of the solar radio spectrum for 24 h per day year-round. Malaysia-UKM is a strategic equatorial location and can observe the Sun 12 h per day. This paper gives an overview of the spectrum allocation for radio astronomy, which falls in the specified operating frequency band of the CALLISTO spectrometer. The radio astronomy bands are analyzed at the Malaysia-UKM station according to the International Telecommunication Union recommendations. Some observational results are also presented in this paper.     

A Highly Circularly Polarized Solar Radio Emission Component Observed at Hectometric Wavelengths

We report here the observation of a rare solar radio event at hectometric wavelengths that was characterized by essentially 100% circularly polarized radiation and that was observed continuously for about six days, from May 17 to 23, 2002. This was the first time that a solar source with significantly polarized radiation was detected by the WAVES experiment on the Wind spacecraft. From May 19 to 22, the intense polarized radio emissions were characterized by quasi-periodic intensity variations with periods from one to two hours and with superposed drifting, narrowband, fine structures. The bandwidth of this radiation extended from about 400 kHz to 7 MHz, and the peak frequency of the frequency spectrum slowly decreased from 2 MHz to about 0.8 MHz over the course of four days. The radio source, at each frequency, was observed to slowly drift from east to west about the Sun, as viewed from the Earth and was estimated to lie between 26 and 82R_⊙ (R_⊙ = 696 000 km). We speculate that this unusual event may represent an interplanetary manifestation of a moving type IV burst and discuss possible radio emission mechanisms. The ISEE-3 spacecraft may possibly have detected a similar event some 26 years ago.     

Formation of zebra patterns of solar microwave bursts as a result of propagation of radio waves through the inhomogeneous corona

The geoefficiency of solar bursts is diagnosed using the dynamic radio emission spectrum. At certain time intervals, the spectrum exhibits nearly parallel narrow-band emission strips termed the zebra pattern. Although there are many hypotheses of its origin, all of them do not take into account changes in the signal parameters upon signal propagation through the solar corona. Our analysis shows that the propagation effects form a dynamic spectrum that contains a zebra pattern. The properties of the modeled spectrum are shown to coincide with the basic properties of the observed spectrum. It is clarified that the spike structure of strips is a natural consequence of the interference of radio waves, and the occurrence of this structure is considered to be evidence in favor of the interference nature of the zebra pattern formation. Consequently, the zebra pattern can be formed not in the radiation source itself, but rather can arise as a result of propagation of radio waves through an inhomogeneous refracting medium of the solar corona.     

Determination and analysis of coronal hole radio spectra

Solar radio maps obtained by our group and others over a wide wavelength range (millimeter to meter) and over a considerable time span (1973–1978) have allowed us to compute the radio spectrum of an average coronal hole, i.e., the brightness temperature inside a coronal hole normalized by the brightness temperature of the quiet Sun outside the coronal hole measured at several different radio wavelengths. This radio spectrum can be used to obtain the changes of the quiet Sun atmosphere inside coronal holes and also as an additional check for coronal hole profiles obtained by other methods. Using a standard solar atmosphere and a computer program which included ray tracing, we have tried to reproduce the observed radio spectrum by computing brightness temperatures at many different wavelengths for a long series of modifications in the electron density, neutral particle density and temperature profiles of the standard solar atmosphere. This analysis indicates that inside an average coronal hole the following changes occur: the upper chromosphere expands by about 20% and its electron density and temperature decrease by about 10%. The transition zone experiences the largest change, expanding by a factor of about 6, its electron density decreases by a similar factor, and its temperature decreases by about 50%. Finally in the corona the electron density decreases by about 20% and the temperature by about 15%.     

Thermal cyclotron radio emission of neutral current sheets in the solar corona

Cyclotron radiation (its frequency spectrum and polarization) of thermal electrons in a neutral current sheet is considered. It is shown that cyclotron radiation is able to escape only from a thin edge of the sheet where the magnetic field is practically homogeneous. Due to this, the frequency spectrum has the form of comparatively narrow lines with integer ratio of frequencies. This fact enables one to recognize neutral current sheets in the solar corona by their radio emission.     

A high-resolution study of Jupiter at a frequency of 30 GHz

We present the results of our study of Jupiter and its radiation belts with a resolution of 6 arcsec at a frequency of 30 GHz using the RATAN-600 radio telescope and a MARS matrix radiometer with a sensitivity of about 6 mK ^?1/2. We monitored the integrated emission from the Jovian disk with a signal-to-noise ratio of more than 1000 for 30 days and showed its radio emission to be highly stable (≈1%). Based on daily data for the one-dimensional radio brightness distribution over the disk, we mapped the longitudinal radio brightness distribution over 100 rotation periods of Jupiter around its axis. Neither hot nor cold spots with a temperature contrast of more than 1 K were detected; their contribution to the total radio flux from the Jovian disk was no more than 0.2%. The one-dimensional latitudinal (longitude-averaged) distribution obtained on VLA with a similar resolution is shown to be an order of magnitude less uniform than the one-dimensional longitudinal (latitude-averaged) distribution obtained on RATAN-600. We have studied the radiation belts at such high frequencies for the first time and estimated their intensities and variability levels under the effect of external factors. The variable component of the radiation belts was shown to have not exceeded 0.5% of the integrated spectrum of Jupiter over the entire period of its observations. We estimated the contribution of the Galilean satellites (“Galilean noise”) in low-resolution observations; the accuracy of allowing for this noise is determined by the accuracy of estimating the temperatures of the satellites at the observing frequency. The uncertainty in the total flux does not exceed 0.1%.     

Forecast daily indices of solar activity, F10.7, using support vector regression method

The 10.7cm solar radio flux (F10.7), the value of the solar radio emission flux density at a wavelength of 10.7cm, is a useful index of solar activity as a proxy for solar extreme ultraviolet radiation. It is meaningful and important to predict F10.7 values accurately for both long-term (months-years) and short-term (days) forecasting, which are often used as inputs in space weather models. This study applies a novel neural network technique, support vector regression (SVR), to forecasting daily values of F10.7. The aim of this study is to examine the feasibility of SVR in short-term F10.7 forecasting. The approach, based on SVR, reduces the dimension of feature space in the training process by using a kernel-based learning algorithm. Thus, the complexity of the calculation becomes lower and a small amount of training data will be sufficient. The time series of F10.7 from 2002 to 2006 are employed as the data sets. The performance of the approach is estimated by calculating the norm mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It is shown that our approach can perform well by using fewer training data points than the traditional neural network.     

A Search for Periodicities in F10.7 Solar Radio Flux Data

The radio frequency emission at 10.7 cm (or 2800 MHz) wavelength (considered as solar flux density) out of different possible wavelengths is usually selected to identify periodicities because of its high correlation with solar extreme ultraviolet radiation as well as its complete and long observational record other than sunspot related indices. The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm wavelength plays a very valuable role for forecasting the space weather because it is originated from lower corona and chromospheres region of the Sun. Also, solar radio flux is a magnificent indicator of major solar activity. Here in the present work the solar radio flux data from 1965 to 2014 observed at the Domimion Radio Astrophysical Observatory in Penticton, British Columbiahas been processed using Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) to identify predominant periods within the data along with their confidence levels. Also, the multi-taper method (MTM) for periodicity analysis is used to validate the observed periods. Present investigation exhibits multiperiodicity of the time series F10.7 solar radio flux data around 27, 57, 78, 127, 157, 4096 days etc. The observed periods are also compared with the periods of MgII Index data using same algorithm as MgII Index data has 99.9% correlation with F10.7 Solar Radio Flux data. It can be observed that the MgII index data exhibits similar periodicities with very high confidence levels.Present investigation also clearly indicates that the computed results are very much confining with the results obtained in different communication for the similar data of 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux as well as for the other solar activities.

     

The wavelet analysis of the period of solar activity

Using the wavelet technique, we analyzed the time series of solar radio fluxes at 2800 MHz as well as sunspot numbers and areas. The results are as follows: (1) These three data sets demonstrate that the most prominent period is 10.69 years and that all other periods are not obvious. (2) The wavelet power spectrum displays the changes of the power spectrum over the entire time-period range and shows the variations in the local power of a given period in a given time interval. Our analysis shows that periods shorter than one year are distinct only around solar activity maximum. (3) The time curves of the wavelet power at three periods (10.69 years, 5.11 years and 155.5 days) for the three times series are rather alike, with the same times of peaks and similar undulations. The shorter the period, the more frequent the fluctuations.     

太阳米波和分米波Ⅱ型、Ⅲ型射电暴及其精细结构观测研究进展

太阳米波和分米波的射电观测是对太阳爆发过程中耀斑和日冕物质抛射现象研究的重要观测手段。米波和分米波的太阳射电暴以相干等离子体辐射为主导,表现出在时域和频域的多样性和复杂性。其中Ⅱ型射电暴是激波在日冕中运动引起电磁波辐射的结果。在Ⅱ型射电暴方面,首先对米波Ⅱ型射电暴的激波起源问题和米波Ⅱ型射电暴与行星际Ⅱ型射电暴的关系问题进行了讨论;其次,结合Lin-Forbes太阳爆发理论模型对Ⅱ型射电暴的开始时间和起始频率进行讨论:最后,对Ⅱ型射电暴信号中包含的两种射电精细结构,Herringbone结构(即鱼骨结构)和与激波相关的Ⅲ型射电暴也分别进行了讨论。Ⅲ型射电暴是高能电子束在日冕中运动产生电磁波辐射的结果。在Ⅲ型射电暴方面,首先介绍了利用Ⅲ型射电暴对日冕磁场位形和等离子体密度进行研究的具体方法;其次,对利用Ⅲ型射电暴测量日冕温度的最新理论进行介绍;最后,对Ⅲ型射电暴和Ⅱ型射电暴的时间关系、Ⅲ型射电暴和粒子加速以及Ⅲ型射电暴信号中包含的射电精细结构(例如斑马纹、纤维爆发及尖峰辐射)等问题进行讨论并介绍有关的最新研究进展。     

The nanoflare model and stellar quiescent radio emission

The concept of the nanoflare, used in interpreting the solar X-ray corona, is extended to RS CVn stars which, unlike the Sun, exhibit non-thermal quiescent radio spectra. The theoretical synchrotron-radiation radio spectrum emitted by a regular series of nanoflare-electron pulses, injected into the coronal magnetic field, is derived: for an electron energy spectrum N ( γ )∝ γ ^{− s} , the spectral power density is given by P ( ν )∝ ν ^{− s /2}. This result is valid for the observation of a series of nanoflares with total time duration ≳ the characteristic electron radiation lifetime, which is the case for electrons trapped in extensive coronal regions such as exist in RS CVn stars on the magnetic-dipole magnetospheric model. The tenuous coronal plasma allows the electrons to give a radio spectrum unaffected at high frequencies (≳5 GHz) by electron collision loss, while the emission of bremsstrahlung X-rays by the electrons also occurs with a spectrum that is related to their radio emission. The observation of individual X-ray bursts, which would provide direct evidence for microflares, is not, however, attainable with current instrumentation.     

Scaling-laws of Radio Spike Bursts and Their Constraints on New Solar Radio Telescopestwo

Radio observation is one of important methods in solar physics and space science. Sometimes, it is almost the sole approach to observe the physical processes such as the acceleration, emission, and propagation of non-thermal energetic particles, etc. So far, more than 100 solar radio telescopes have been built in the world, including solar radiometers, dynamic spectrometers, and radioheliographs. Some of them have been closed after the fulfillment of their primary scientific objectives, or for their malfunctions, and thus replaced by other advanced instruments. At the same time, based on some new technologies and scientific ideas, various kinds of new and much more complicated solar radio telescopes are being constructed by solar radio astronomers and space scientists, such as the American E-OVSA and the solar radio observing system under the framework of Chinese Meridian Project II, etc. When we plan to develop a new solar radio telescope, it is crucial to design the most suitable technical parameters, e.g., the observing frequency range and bandwidth, temporal resolution, frequency resolution, spatial resolution, polarization degree, and dynamic range. Then, how do we select a rational set of these parameters? The long-term observation and study revealed that a large strong solar radio burst is frequently composed of a series of small bursts with different time scales. Among them, the radio spike burst is the smallest one with the shortest lifetime, the narrowest bandwidth, and the smallest source region. Solar radio spikes are considered to be related to a single magnetic energy release process, and can be regarded as an elementary burst in solar flares. It is a basic requirement for the new solar radio telescope to observe and discriminate these solar radio spike bursts, even though the temporal and spatial scales of radio spike bursts actually vary with the observing frequency. This paper presents the scaling laws of the lifetime and bandwidth of solar radio spike bursts with respect to the observing frequency, which provide some constraints for the new solar radio telescopes, and help us to select the rational telescope parameters. Besides, we propose a spectrum-image combination mode as the best observation mode for the next-generation solar radio telescopes with high temporal, spectral, and spatial resolutions, which may have an important significance for revealing the physical essence of the various non-thermal processes in violent solar eruptions.     

Spike observations in flares in China

Variations on short time-scales have been found in solar flares at different wavelengths. Millisecond scale radio spikes are a quickly developing area of solar radio astronomy. The solar radio astronomy group of Beijing Astronomical Observatory (BAO) has found fine structures of microwave bursts with millisecond time-scale at 2840 MHz. In this paper, we briefly summarize the observations. A joint-observation network for observing solar radio bursts with high time resolution has also been established. The equipment in the network covers a frequency domain of more than 10:1, including 1.3, 2.0, 6, 10, 15, 20 cm, and meter wavelengths. In particular, a multi-channel polarimeter with super-fast sampling (10 s) at 2600 MHz, an intensity interferometer with 1 ms sampling rate at 6 cm wavelength, and an auto-correlation radio spectrograph with 8 ms time constant at 21 cm wavelength are being established. We pay close attention to research on the spike emission features over wide bands, and their relationship to special characteristics in other spectral ranges.