Principles of Probabilistic Regional Mineral Resource Estimation

Five principal sources of uncertainty in quantitative mineral resource estimation are listed and illustrated by means of a simple example (mosaic model) and a case history study for large copper deposits in the Abitibi area of the Canadian Shield. Abitibi copper potential originally was estimated on the basis of 1968 estimates of production and reserves totalling 3.12 Mt Cu. This prognostication now could be evaluated on the basis of 2008 copper production and reserves totalling 9.50 Mt Cu. An earlier hindsight study performed on the basis of 1977 data (totalling 5.23 Mt Cu) showed seven new discoveries occurring either in the immediate vicinities of known deposits or on broad regional copper anomalies predicted from the 1968 inputs. By 1977, the global geographic distribution pattern of large copper deposits in the Abitibi area had stabilized. During the next 30 years, new copper was essentially found close to existing deposits, much of it deeper down in the Earth's crust. In this paper, uncertainties associated with copper ore tonnage are analyzed by comparison of 2008 data with 1968 data using (a) log-log plots of size versus rank, and (b) lognormal QQ-plots. Straight lines fitted by least squares on these plots show that 1968 slopes provide good estimates of 2008 slopes but 1968 intercepts are much less than 2008 intercepts. In each linear log-weight versus log-rank plot, the slope is related to fractal dimension of a Pareto frequency distribution, and in a lognormal QQ-plot it is determined by logarithmic variance. The difference between 2008 and 1968 intercepts represents the increase in copper ore production and reserves from 1968 to 2008. The Pareto model fits actual copper and massive sulphides increase over the past 40 years better than the lognormal frequency distribution model for 10 km×10 km cells on favorable environments in the Abitibi area.      

Geology and mineralization of the Tiegelongnan supergiant porphyry-epithermal Cu (Au,Ag) deposit (10 Mt) in western Tibet,China: A review

The Tiegelongnan Cu(Au,Ag)deposit in central Tibet contains more than 10 Mt of copper ranking 29 th in the world.It is characterized by typical porphyry-epithermal alteration and mineralization.In order to improve the understanding of porphyry-epithermal copper deposit in Tibet,new zircon U-Pb age and sulfur isotope data along with published data in the Tiegelongnan are presented to investigate the formation and preservation mechanism.Ore-related intrusive rocks in the Tiegelongnan including Early Cretaceous(about 120 Ma)granodiorite porphyry and diorite porphyry are closely related to the northward subduction of Bangongco-Nujiang ocean.Sulfur mainly comes from deep magma,and ore-forming fluid is affected by both magmatic and meteoric water.The metallogenic setting of Tiegelongnan is consistent with those of Andean porphyry copper deposits in South America.The cover of the Meiriqiecuo Formation volcanic rocks,Lhasa-Qiangtang collision and India-Eurasian collision have significance in the preservation and uplift of the deposit.The formation,preservation and discovery of Tiegelongnan play an important role in exploration of ancient porphyry-epithermal deposits in Tibet.     

Carbon cycle variability in tropical Atlantic across two Early Eocene hyperthermals

Early Eocene hyperthermals are geologically short-lived global warming events and represent fundamental perturbations to the global carbon cycle and the Earth’s ecosystem due to massive additions of isotopically light carbon to the ocean-atmosphere system.They serve as ancient analogs for understanding how the oceanic carbonate system and surface-ocean ecosystem would respond to ongoing and future climate change.Here,we present a continuous carbonate record across the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2(ETM2 or H1,ca.54.1 Ma)and H2(ca.54 Ma)events from an expanded section at Ocean Drilling Program Site 1258 in tropical Atlantic.The abundant calcareous nannofossils and moderate carbonate content throughout the studied interval suggest this record was deposited above the calcite compensation depth(CCD),but below the lysocline and under the influence of terrestrial dilution.An Earth system model cGENIE is used to simulate the carbon cycle dynamics across the ETM2 and H2 to offer insights on the mechanism of the rapid warming and subsequent recovery in climate and ecosystem.The model suggests moderate changes in ocean pH(0.1–0.2 unit)for the two scenarios,biogenic methane from a rechargeable methane capacitor and organic matter oxidation from thawing of the permafrost.These pH changes are consistent with a recent independent pH estimate across the ETM2 using boron isotopes.The carbon emission flux during the ETM2 is at least an order of magnitude smaller than that during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum(PETM)(0.015–0.05 Pg C yr^-1vs.0.3–1.7 Pg C yr^-1).The comparable pre-and post-event carbonate contents suggest the lysocline did not over deepen following the ETM2 at this tropical Atlantic site,indicating spatial heterogeneity in the carbonate system due to strong dilution influence from terrestrial weathering and riverine discharge at Site 1258.     

Geochronological and geochemical constraints on the petrogenesis of late Mesoproterozoic mafic and granitic rocks in the southwestern Yangtze Block

Late Mesoproterozoic igneous rocks in the SW Yangtze Block are important for understanding the role of it in reconstruction of the Rodinia supercontinent.In the present study,we report new geochronological,geochemical,and Nd-Hf isotopic data for the Cuoke plagioclase amphibolites and granites in the SW Yangtze Block.Geochronological results show that the plagioclase amphibolites and granites have similar late Mesoproterozoic zircon U-Pb ages of 1168-1162 Ma,constituting a bimodal igneous assemblage.The plagioclase amphibolites have high and variable TiO2 contents(1.15-4.30 wt.%)and Mg#(34-66)values,similar to the tholeiitic series.They are characterized by enrichment in LREEs and LILEs,and have OIB-like affinities with positive Nb and Ta anomalies.The plagioclase amphibolites have positive whole-rockεNd(t)(+3.2 to+4.3)and zirconεHf(t)(+4.3 to+10.7)values,indicating that they were derived from an OIB-like asthenospheric mantle source.The granites belong to the reduced peralkaline A-type series and have negativeεNd(t)value of-6.0 andεHf(t)values of-5.8 to-13.8,indicating a derivation from the partial melting of ancient mafic lower crust.In combination with the~1.05-1.02 Ga bimodal igneous assemblage in the SW Yangtze Block,we propose that the Cuoke 1168-1162 Ma igneous rocks were likely formed in a continental rift basin and argue against the existance of Grenvillian Orogen in the SW Yangtze Block during the late Mesoproterozoic.     

Analysis of prospecting polymetallic metallogenic belts by comprehensive geophysical method

This paper is based on the analysis and research on the silver-lead-zinc polymetallic ore in New Ballyhoo Banner in southern Manzhouli of Inner Mongolia.Because metal mineralization brings rock formations,the geophysical features such as low resistivity,high polarization rate and uneven distribution of magnetization,the comprehensive geophysical methods are adopted including high-precision magnetic measurement,high-power induced polarization,IP field middle gradient and controlled source audio-frequency magnetotellurics.In the survey work of multi-metal ore deposits,from surface sweeping to single point measurement,and from single point to section going deeper layer by layer,the resolution of measurement is continuously improved,and various geophysical methods support and complement each other,so explorers can successfully predict the direction,scale and volume of the metallogenic belts in conjunction with geochemical exploration,geological survey and drilling.It has provided a strong basis for completing the exploration task of predicting the reserve volume of ore bodies.The research conclusions of this exploration case have thus a high reference value in the same type of exploration work.     

利用Grapher绘制彩色渐变剖面平面图

在物探扫面工作中,有大量的剖面数据需要绘制成剖面平面图,要求寻找一个高效快速的制图方法.通过对Grapher 自动化功能的分析和实践,编制程序实现了快速绘制彩色渐变剖面平面图的需求,说明利用自动化脚本能够在获得精美图件的同时,可以极大地提高作图效率.     

冷生风化作用对边坡稳定性影响

The experiment shows that considerable influence on density rock properties are subjected by nival weathering conditions. The main parameter defining the rock suitability for solution various engineering and geological problems is its firmness limit on single axis pressing. The firmness properties of sandstone being in absolutely dry condition for Kabakta suite at the beginning of investigation was 64.7 MPa, for Nerungri suite sandstones it was 48. 7 MPa. The investigations showed how much the nival conditions of cryohypergenesis of rock sandstones in Kabakta and Nerungri suites have destructive influence in comparison with aquale and more over aerale conditions. In the aerale conditions sedimentary rock firmness of Kabakta suite decreased to 23.2 MPa, in aquale conditions to 16.5, and in the nivale conditions to 8.9 MPa. In Nerungri suite sandstones are according to 17.7 MPa, 11.1 MPa, and 6 MPa after 300 freezing and thawing cycles. The common sandstone firmness decrease of Kabakta suite was 25 %,of Nerungri suite it was 23.8%. Marlstone samples after 400 FTC decrease to 62% in the nivale conditions and to 33 % in the aerale conditions. After 3～5 years of exploitation marlstone will destruct due to structural and textural inhomogenesis up to gruss, i.e. it will not meet the requirements of durability.Judging by the results of carried out experiment it should be concluded that by cryogenic weathering the sedimentary rocks (sandstones) and rocks with schistose lithogenic texture (marlstone) are subjected to disintegration. The primary rock samples firmness considerably influences on the disintegration rate.     

Cenozoic Sea‐land Transition and its Petroleum Geological Significance in the Northern South China Sea

The process of Cenozoic sea-land changes in the northern South China Sea(SCS)controlled the sedimentary filling pattern and played an important role in the petroleum geological characteristics of the northern marginal sedimentary basins.Under the control of the opening process of the SCS,the northern SCS Cenozoic transgression generally showed the characteristics of early in the east and late in the west,and early in the south and late in the north.The initial transgression occurred in the Eocene in the Taixinan Basin(TXNB)of the eastern SCS,while the transgression occurred until the Pliocene in the Yinggehai Basin(YGHB)of the western SCS.International Ocean Discovery Program(IODP)expeditions(Expeditions 367/368)revealed that the initial transgression of the SCS basin occurred at approximately 34 Ma,which was the initial opening time of the SCS.The period of drastic changes in the sedimentary environment caused by large-scale transgression corresponded to the opening time of the southwestern subbasin(approximately 23 Ma),which also represented the peak of the spreading of the SCS.The sea-land transition process controls the distribution of alternating continent-marine facies,marine facies source rocks and reservoirs in the basins.The marine facies source rocks of the basins in the northern SCS have a trend of gradually becoming younger from east to west,which is consistent with the regional process of gradual transgression from east to west.Regional sea-level changes were comprehensively influenced by SCS opening and global sea-level changes.These processes led to the early development in the east and south and late development in the west and north for the carbonate platform in the SCS.Carbonate platforms form another type of"selfgenerating and self-accumulating"oil-gas reservoir in the northern SCS.The sea-land transition controlled the depositional filling patterns of different basins and laid the foundation of marine deposits for oil and gas resources.The source-reservoircap assemblage in the northern SCS was controlled horizontally by provenance supply and sedimentary environmental changes caused by sea-land transition and vertically by the tectonic evolution of the SCS and regional sea-level changes.     

《同一个地质计划》的进展与对策

《同一个地质计划（OneGeology）》最初由英国地质调查局于2006年2月提出,已得到全球地学组织的支持。到2007年底,国际地球科学联合会等10个全球学术团体与国际地学组织、2个跨国公司、2位知名人士和67个国家的地质调查局参加了该计划。《同一个地质计划》是各个国家的地质调查局贡献给国际行星地球年的、约1：100万比例尺的、可在网络上很容易取得最好世界地质图数据的计划。该计划的目标是：使可用的地质图数据能被更多的人使用,使需要的人受益,促进互操作能力的增强。《同一个地质计划》的实施,可以提升全球、大陆、行星、海洋地球科学图的编制和出版的合作能力。深化对一些地区地质问题的研究,并可作为国际地球行星年一个切实可用的成果,提升国家地质调查局的形象;运用管理地学知识的领导能力和经验,通过教育、科学、文化和交流。能够处理全球污染对社会、经济和环境的影响问题。促进全球环境保护公约的执行,减缓自然灾害,使全球经济可持续发展,人们的居住环境更安全、更繁荣。精神生活更丰富、更快乐。因此,实施该计划不仅有现实意义,更有重要而深远的政治意义。     

Geochemical Characterizations of Source and Depositional Environment of Hydrocarbons in the Lake Albert Rift Basin

Despite the upsurge in hydrocarbon exploration in the Lake Albert Rift Basin(LARB)over the past three decades,systematic characterization of hydrocarbon compositions remains lacking,leading to uncertainties in source rock and oil generation determination.We characterized crude oil compositions and oil sand samples in the northern and southern subbasins of LARB.The relative abundance of normal and branched linear alkanes,hopanes,steranes,and aromatic hydrocarbon suggest that northern and southern hydrocarbons were deposited in anoxic to suboxic lacustrine environments and share similar biological source compositions(i.e.,a mixture of plants and aquatic algae and bacteria).Relative to southern samples,northern samples show more negative δ¹³C values for oils,saturates and aromatics,indicating longer migration paths,and exhibit higher MPI-1,DNR-1 and 4-/1-MDBT ratios,indicating higher maturity.Between the two possible sets of source rocks(upper Miocene and Jurassic strata),the positive δ¹³C values of saturated hydrocarbons(average=-20.5‰)suggest that the upper Miocene lacustrine shale is the most likely candidate.Oleanane index(<5% in our samples)does not exclude either source rock possibility,and C₂₈/C₂₉ regular sterane(average=0.63)may be biased by high terrestrial inputs in a lacustrine setting.Together,our data show that northern and southern oils originate from the same source rocks but different oil kitchens.Given the similar geochemical characteristics of southern and northern oils,previous exploration successes in the northern subbasin likely suggest similar potential in the southern sector,while other elements influencing exploration success must be also evaluated.     

如何解决开展防震宣传担心引起谣传问题

解决开展防震宣传活动担心引起谣传问题 ,必须做到 :一、更新观念 ,与时俱进 ;二、端正认识 ,进一步理解自己的职能 ;三、把积极、大胆开展活动作为解决谣传问题的根本途径 ;四、注意工作方法 ,尽量避免群众“担心”。     

Tectonics and earthquake mechanism of the shallow earthquake seismic belt,the Himalaya

The foci distribution of upper mantle earthquakes occurred between 1961 and 1972 in Himalayan, Tibetan and Hindukush regions, were studied and compared. The V-shaped pockets above a vertical plane have shown a relationship with the dip-slip type or normal faulting at the borders of the continental plates. The left-lateral and right-lateral displacements of Kirthar-Sulaiman shear zone and Brailly fault respectively found by the focal mechanism indicate a relative difference in motion between the Kashmir region and Nepal region and the uniform and right angle displacement of Tibetan Plateau has produced the Saradah depression. On the basis of seismic and geological evidences a simple tectonic model is proposed.     

汶川地震序列动态跟踪分析及对甘肃震情的判定

在对四川省汶川县地震序列的动态跟踪与对甘肃省震情的动态判定过程中,笔者成功地把握了甘肃震情、一定程度上把握了汶川地震序列的动态发展变化并对5月18日发生在四川省江油市的6.0级地震作出了成功预测。此次成功的地震预测实践为甘肃省的抗震救灾工作提供了正确的科学依据,为减轻地震灾害和稳定被地震扰乱的社会秩序发挥了重要作用,同时也在中国地震预报的历史上写下了新的篇章。从中笔者更加深刻地感悟到,地震预报虽然是一个十分复杂、尚未被攻克的世界性难题,但对于一个特定的地区,如果预报思路和方法得当,要实现一次乃至数次成功的预报是可能的。这对地球科学家们如何认识地震预报问题有一定的意义。     

The foreshock sequence of haicheng earthquake and earthquake swarm—the use of foreshock sequences in earthquake prediction

We have compared the Haicheng foreshock sequence with several earthquake swarms which occurred in its neighborhood. The spatial distribution of the earthquakes is relatively concentrated. For the most part, the events occurred within a few kilometers of each other. The focal mechanisms are comparatively stable. However, there are several swarms in which the variations of focal mechanisms are quite obvious after the occurrence of the largest event of the sequence, which would allow it to be recognized as a swarm. However, there are also swarms whose focal mechanisms are no less stable throughout the sequence compared to the Haicheng foreshock sequence. This feature could thus not be used to identify a foreshock sequence. The temporal distributions of foreshocks and swarms are quite similar in some cases. This is again not a definite criterion for identifying foreshocks, but is worthy of further study. Thus, no definite criterion for identifying foreshock sequences has been found. However, some earthquake swarms may be recognized in their later stage.Finally, we introduced a magnitude sequence with gaps which can be used to see whether a large event is still forthcoming. This method (in conjunction with other methods) could be used in areas prone to large earthquakes, immediately before a large event, to improve the probability of predicting the occurrence of a large event. We also report that the temporal distribution of all the sequences showed a 12-hour recurrence pattern that corresponded with the earth tides, indicating that tidal forces might be influencing foreshocks and earthquake swarm occurrence.     

沉积物的地震及古地震效应*

古地震是依据地层中保留的沉积物变形记录而确定的。系统归纳总结地震诱发沉积物变形将为古地震研究提供理论基础,也有助于野外调查辨认这些记录。作者提出了一个初步的、供讨论与补充修正的地震触发沉积物变形分类的方案。变形的成因机制是分类的基础。这些特殊沉积物变形主要与地震有关,但其中一些变形往往也受其他多种因素的影响,因此要确定地震成因变形必须详尽研究相关的区域地质背景构造。     

岷县漳县地震灾后重建场地黄土震害预测

通过对取自2013年岷县漳县Ms6.6地震影响区8个灾后重建安置点的黄土进行室内动、静三轴试验,研究了极震区2个灾后重建场地黄土的动、静力学特性,分析了地震影响区内3个灾后重建安置场地的黄土斜坡稳定性和5个场地黄土的震陷性;并结合安置点的地形地貌特点,对灾后重建场地潜在黄土地震地质灾害进行了预测。结果表明:极震区黄土在静力作用下具有明显的应力强化特性,在循环动荷载作用下具有刚度迅速衰减和粘滞性急剧增强的特征;MX-2和MX-3重建场地的斜坡在地震作用下存在失稳的可能;Ⅷ度以上地震作用下,MX-1、ZX-1、LT-1和LX-1场地存在产生不同破坏等级震陷灾害的风险;Ⅷ度以上地震作用下MX-1场地的黄土可产生液化,存在导致山体液化滑坡、泥流以及建构筑物地基失稳和不均匀沉降等地震灾害的风险。     

Ecological-geodynamic evaluation of the Chuya earthquake

Disruptions of the Gornyi Altai ecologic-geological systems due to the Chuya earthquake were examined. The energy bond between abiotic Earth spheres (the lithosphere and atmosphere) and biota were investigated during the period of seismic activity of the Earth’s mantle, particularly with respect to population morbidity.     

Perception of earthquake risk: a study of the earthquake insurance pilot area in China

In 2014, China will pilot its first earthquake insurance program, and the inhabitants’ perception of earthquake risk in the pilot area is significant for the implementation of this plan. In this study, the authors conducted a field survey in four districts in the insurance pilot area to investigate the factors affecting the earthquakes risk perception of residents. The survey concentrates on the factors of hazard experience and residents’ house type and shows that people who have experienced more earthquakes tend to have a lower risk perception while people who have suffered serious earthquake loss tend to have a higher risk perception. For the house type factor, the author finds that house type is correlated with the risk perception from an earthquake. The effect on risk perception is significantly reduced when people enhance their house type with brick walls, concrete beams, and column. Furthermore, gender, income, and education level also have direct effects on how residents perceive of the risk from an earthquake.     

量子地震模型:对汶川地震的解释

从大量的地震参数分析可知,在由同一主震引发的所有的余震发生的位置都不同。在发生地震之前,地震的震中位置都是一些相互独立、互不连续且发生了弹性应变的单元个体,笔者称这些独立不连续的弹性应变单元称为应变量子。综合前人研究成果,笔者建立了一个地震模型。运用该模型对2008年5月12日发生在中国汶川地震作了解释:由于在龙门山断裂带周围形成了许多的应变量子,这些应变量子的形成阻碍了龙门山断裂的运动,产生滑移亏损,从而造成在地震前测量到的龙门山断裂带速度场变化很不显著。2008年5月12日14时28分时,在龙门山断裂周围已形成应变量子中的其中一应变量子最先达到它的最大储能,释放它所储存的应变能,引发了汶川Ms8.0地震。此次地震产生的地震波引发了龙门山断裂周围地壳应力的重分布,使得其他应变量子提前达到最大储能,释放出能量,于是触发成千上万次余震。此外,我们或许可以通过观测断裂滑移速率的变化情况来预测断裂周围应变量子的形成,从而来预测该断裂是否存在潜在地震的可能。