福建惠安沿海大气扩散特性的数值分析与模拟

用福建惠安地区的实测气象资料,结合风场诊断、轨迹分析和随机游走模拟方法,分析惠安核电厂所在地小尺度(40 km×40 km)范围内的大气扩散特性,并与现场扩散示踪实验数据比较.结果表明,该地区的扩散输送总体受天气系统和海陆风环流二因子影响.研究范围内的风场,在水平方向的空间变化不大,扩散烟流基本平直.海陆风环流因子所致的风场时间变化和风向摆动对当地扩散有重要意义.随机游走模拟方法较好地反映出当地大气扩散的定量特征,但复杂地形与海岸气象条件的联合作用,仍使模拟结果与示踪实验结果的统计比较显得离散.     

从临海30年气温变化初探城市化对当地气候变暖的贡献

利用临海与天台1971～2002年的气候资料,研究分析临海、天台的月季年和年代的各种气温变化特征,证实整个区域气候确实在变暖,而且从90年代以来表现更加明显;城市化对当地的气温增益明显,加大了当地气候变暖的程度;城市化的影响可能造成对区域气候变暖评估的偏大;同时初步探讨了城市化对当地气候变暖的贡献问题.     

车站天气补充预报——一种新的天气预报

根据大形势的天气预告,气象(/或气候)站再结合当地天气损变规律的特点,作出当地更详细的补充预告.收到良好效果.     

惠水县摆榜乡脱毒马铃薯种植的气候条件分析

根据脱毒马铃薯对气候条件的要求,分析了惠水县摆榜乡的气候条件,摆榜乡的气温、水分、光照条件十分适宜种植脱毒马铃薯.并提出了科学的种植建议,为当地合理利用气候条件科学种植脱毒马铃薯提供理论依据.     

昌吉发展葡萄生产的农业气候条件研究

昌吉州栽培葡萄历史较久.三中全会以来,特别是近几年葡萄生产发展很快.目前,全州栽培面积近7千亩.随着果树种植业发展,这里将成为新兴的鲜食制罐葡萄生产基地.但是,昌吉州的葡萄生产中存在着许多农业气象问题.如:昌吉州的葡萄生产受气候条件的影响,产量不稳定,适宜当地气候发展葡萄的品种是什么?该品种的气候适应性如何?气候条件的优劣对品质和产量究竟有何影响?这些问题急需研究解决.     

黎平县超级稻产量与气候条件的关系

黎平县在2005年的小区对比示范和2006年的大区示范推广均取得成功.通过2a的气候跟踪调查和定点观测显示,超级稻的产量除了品种的固有特性和栽培水平外,还与黎平气候条件有着密切的关系.根据当地气候条件,最好种植在海拔600m以下的地区.     

昌吉市城——郊气候差异初论

目前我州台站已有近30年或以上的气象观测资料,这些宝贵的资料真实地记录着各地的气候变化.人们已经认识到城市的发展使当地气候与乡村气候产生了较大差异,现以昌吉为例对这部分气候情况进行简要分析.     

农业气候区划在农业发展战略中的应用

农业生产是在自然条件下进行的.因此,气象条件历来就是影响农业年景好坏的一个重要因素,所以农业发展的战略决策必须遵循当地的气候规律,以便最大限度地发挥气候优势,避免气象灾害.我们在农业区划和农业发展战略的研究与应用中,做了如下一些尝试.     

实现农业现代化必须合理利用气候资源

光照、热量、降水等气候要素,既是农业生产必需的环境条件,也是重要的自然资源。农业收成的丰欠受气候条件的影响极大。一个地区能否进行某项农业生产以及产量的高低,首先要看当地气候条件是否许可和人们对当地气候资源合理利用的程度。     

沈阳市最佳施工期的气候分析

建筑施工是在露天条件下进行,受自然条件特别是气候条件的影响很大,如果能掌握当地气候规律,把影响建筑施工的气候条件及其分布规律了解清楚,进而根     

贵州省旅游气象服务的现状与发展思考

贵州旅游业近年来呈井喷式发展,旅游气象服务在其中起到重要作用。在气候变暖大背景下,极端天气逐渐增多,对旅游安全保障工作提出更高的要求;同时,人们对旅游质量要求逐渐提升,有必要丰富旅游气象服务产品,提升游客的旅游满意度。为此,该文梳理了贵州近年来在旅游气象服务方面开展的工作,总结其中的不足,结合当前贵州十四五发展规划,从“防灾减灾”和“助推地方经济”两方面提出了旅游气象业务的发展设想,以期为旅游气象服务工作的开展提供思路和参考。     

Virtue and vulnerability: Discourses on women, gender and climate change

In the limited literature on gender and climate change, two themes predominate - women as vulnerable or virtuous in relation to the environment. Two viewpoints become obvious: women in the South will be affected more by climate change than men in those countries and that men in the North pollute more than women. The debates are structured in specific ways in the North and the South and the discussion in the article focuses largely on examples from Sweden and India. The article traces the lineage of the arguments to the women, environment and development discussions, examining how they recur in new forms in climate debates. Questioning assumptions about women's vulnerability and virtuousness, it highlights how a focus on women's vulnerability or virtuousness can deflect attention from inequalities in decision-making. By reiterating statements about poor women in the South and the pro-environmental women of the North, these assumptions reinforce North-South biases. Generalizations about women's vulnerability and virtuousness can lead to an increase in women's responsibility without corresponding rewards. There is need to contextualise debates on climate change to enable action and to respond effectively to its adverse effects in particular places.     

大兴安岭气候干湿变化及对森林火灾的影响

明确气候变化背景下大兴安岭林区气候干湿状况特征,揭示其对森林火灾的影响,可为该区域森林火灾管理和森林资源保护提供科学依据。基于大兴安岭林区1974—2016年标准化降水指数（SPI）,采用统计分析和对比分析方法,系统研究不同干湿情景对森林火灾发生次数及过火面积的影响,并讨论不同等级干旱对其影响的异同性。结果表明:1974—2016年,年、季尺度上大兴安岭林区气候均呈湿润化趋势。森林火灾发生次数多（少）和过火面积大（小）与气候的干湿状况（等级）基本一致,但森林火灾的发生次数与气候干湿状况相关更为密切。年尺度上,SPI与火灾次数呈负相关,与过火面积的自然对数则呈较弱的负相关;季尺度上,各季节SPI与对应的林火次数和过火面积自然对数均呈显著的负相关,但与过火面积的相关程度差异较大,以春季相关最为显著,秋季次之,夏季则相对较弱;不同季节SPI与年林火次数和过火面积自然对数呈负相关,前一年冬季SPI对当年火灾次数的贡献最大。可见,气候干湿状况对森林火灾的影响存在明显的滞后效应。SPI不仅能较好地反映区域气候的干湿状况,亦能较好地指示森林火灾发生的可能性及发生火灾的过火面积的相对变化情况,可为森林火灾预测和管理提供科学依据。     

Riders under storms: Contributions of nomadic herders’ observations to analysing climate change in Mongolia

Predictions of climate change and its impacts are highly uncertain at regional and local levels. Downscaled models often operate with a too coarse scale and look at standard parameters that may be irrelevant to resource-dependent people. This article argues that a more robust analysis and prediction of climate change at local levels can be inferred from the integration of local people's observation of change with meteorological records and models.The example proposed here is the analysis of climate change in the desert-steppe region of Mongolia. While regional models and local analyses agree that Mongolia has become warmer, predictions either ignore or are contradictory about the changes in precipitations and sand storms. The Mongolian pastoral nomads on the other hand identify longer and more intense droughts and sand storms as the most important recent climatic changes, relevant to their livelihoods. In addition, they record detailed changes in the precipitations regime. Thus, they are unequivocal that rains have become patchy – ‘silk embroidery rains’ – (forcing pastoralists to move farther and more frequently), more intense (thus less effective due to runoff) and that summer rains are delayed (reducing the growing season).The observations of the pastoralists can only partly be investigated in light of meteorological records due to different parameters observed by the two systems. Nevertheless, additional evidence derived from the analysis of meteorological records resonates with the perceptions of the herders and adds elements for further investigation. This combined evidence suggests that due to a southern shift of the East Asian Monsoon, rains in southern Mongolia rely on re-circulated local moisture, leading to large-scale droughts and in turn more frequent sand storms.The analysis provided herein shows that combining the two knowledge systems (local people's observations and climatology) holds the potential to provide more reliant and relevant investigations of climate change and allow for better planned adaptations.     

兰州市旅游气候舒适度与客流量关系分析

基于兰州市1981—2010年的气象观测资料,采用温湿指数、风效指数和着衣指数3个指标,对兰州市旅游气候舒适度进行分析评价。结果表明,兰州市全年旅游气候舒适期可达7个月,旅游最舒适月份从5月持续到9月,不适宜期主要集中在冬季的1月、12月。结合2010—2014年兰州市旅游客流量年内变化数据,划分了兰州市旅游淡旺季和客流量月指数;综合分析客流量月指数与三个指数关系得出:客流量年内变化与气候舒适度呈明显的相关性,客流量月指数与温湿指数、风效指数呈正相关,与着衣指数呈负相关,且3个指数与客流量月指数相关性较好,都在0.7以上。     

无锡着装气象指数研究

本文统计分析了无锡市温、湿、风的变化规律，并探讨其对着装厚度的影响，得出了计算着装厚度的经验公式以及与着装厚度相对应的着装建议，提出了增减衣气象指数。文中提出的增减衣气象指数与着装厚度气象指数的联合运用，提高了服务的针对性和准确性。气象指数应用软件可利用中尺度数值预报产品自动生成着装气象指数，方便地应用于预报服务。     

Challenging climate change and migration discourse: Different understandings of timescale and temporality in the Maldives

This article draws on ongoing research in the Maldives to explore differences between elite and non-elite perceptions of climate change and migration. It argues that, in addition to variations in perceptions based on diverse knowledge, priorities and agendas, there exists a more fundamental divergence based upon different understandings of the timescale of climate change and related ideas of urgency and crisis. Specifically, elites tend to focus on a distant future, which is generally abstracted from people's everyday lived realities, and to utilise the language of a climate change-induced migration ‘crisis’ in their discussions about impacts in a manner not envisaged by non-elites. The article concludes that, rather than unproblematically mapping global, external facing narratives wholesale onto ordinary people's lives and experiences, there needs to be more dialogue between elites and non-elites on climate change and migration issues. These perspectives should be integrated more effectively into the development of policy interventions designed to support people in adapting to the impacts of global environmental change.     

Assessing model-based and conflict-based uncertainty

Assessment panels need to communicate scientific uncertainty, and often face choices about how to simplify or synthesize it. One important distinction is between uncertainty that has been modeled, and that which derives from disagreement among experts. From an economic decision-making perspective the two are in many ways logically equivalent, yet from psychological and social perspectives they are quite different. An experiment on the communication of climate change uncertainty suggests that the two framings of uncertainty differentially influence people's estimates of likelihood and their motivation to take responsive action. It is recommended that assessment panels pay close attention to the social features of uncertainty, such as conflict between experts.     

全球变暖与地球“三极”气候变化

北极、南极和青藏高原分别是地球的最北端、最南端和海拔最高的高原,被称为地球“三极”。地球三极是全球气候变化的关键区与敏感区,在区域及全球气候系统中的重要性日益凸显。本文回顾了该领域的最新研究成果,重点阐述了地球三极气候年代际变化的基本特征及其对区域气候的影响,探究了在全球气候变暖背景下地球三极气候变化之间的潜在联系,讨论并展望了未来地球三极气候变化研究所面临的挑战。     

贵州省旅游气候品牌效应初探

旅游业是贵州经济发展的重要支柱产业。气候资源作为不可或缺的一种旅游资源,既造就了贵州多彩多姿的自然风光和人文景观,又以“冬无严寒、夏无酷暑”的气候优势,极大地增加了贵州旅游的吸引力,尤其是在“气象+旅游”模式下,形成了由避暑旅游辐射开来的全省生态旅游“集团化”品牌,对贵州地方经济、社会发展、生态建设和乡村振兴产生极大的推动作用。文章在分析贵州气候优势条件的基础上,研究探讨了旅游气候品牌效应,提出在继续深挖夏季气候优势,持续打造避暑旅游品牌的前提下,应根据贵州立体气候特征及贵州独具特色的喀斯特地域地貌,深入发掘贵州冬季避寒、康养、低纬度地区冬季赏雪观景等气候旅游资源,为打造贵州全域旅游、全时旅游品牌提供参考。