Perceived attributes of hurricane-related retrofits and their effect on household adoption

Natural Hazards - Understanding how homeowners make protective action decisions is important for designing policies and programs to encourage those actions and community resilience as a whole. This...     

Vulnerability assessment based on household views from the Dammar Char in Southeastern Bangladesh

Assessing vulnerability is vital for developing new strategies and improving the existing ones to fulfill contemporary demands toward achieving a disaster-resilient society. Dammar Char is situated in the southeastern (SE) coastal region of Bangladesh that has experienced frequent coastal hazards and disasters throughout the year. The present study has constructed a vulnerability index utilizing the quantitative and qualitative data based on household surveys to evaluate the vulnerability of the people and community of Dammar Char. Data were collected from 180 respondents during November–December 2018. The results demonstrate that, on average, the people living in the studied area have a high vulnerability (value of the vulnerability index 0.7015) to coastal hazards and disasters. The vulnerability level differs from individual to individual based on their gender, educational status, financial capacity, structural strength of houses, perception of the respective hazards and disasters, etc. Females have experienced more vulnerability than their adult male counterparts. The natural vulnerability was higher than socioeconomic and physical vulnerability due to the increase in unpredictable extreme climate-induced coastal events. To combat the adverse impacts of coastal hazards and disasters, the local Dammar Char inhabitants have adopted several adaptation measures. The adapted measures are homestead gardening, working in seasonal day labor, fish drying, rearing sheep, and ducks, constructing plinths for elevating the floor of the house, extensive banana cultivation, and storage of dry foods to reduce their vulnerability.

     

Synoptic features and environmental conditions of the tornado outbreak on March 22, 2013 at Brahmanbaria in the east-central region of Bangladesh

This study evaluates the synoptic features and environmental conditions of Brahmanbaria tornado event that caused 36 fatalities, 388 injuries and huge damages of properties on 22 March, 2013. Various factors for initiation of that terrific event are investigated through analysis JRA-55 reanalysis (50 km horizontal resolution) data and Multi-functional Transport Satellite images by Japan Meteorological Agency. In addition, radar images, radiosonde data and three hourly synoptic data of Bangladesh Meteorological Department are used to verify the reanalysis data. The genesis of the tornadic storm is identifiable in the most unstable part of the study region. The satellite observations are found to useful to identify the location of convection occurrence region. The half hourly satellite images identify that the convection initiation started at the convergence area and the systems intensify and organize by the continuous moisture supply from the Bay of Bengal. Lower-level convergence coupled with strong wind shear and humidity gradient lift moist air aloft to trigger deep convection and the severe storm occurred. Energy Helicity Index seems a good predictor parameter for this specific case study.     

地质灾害隐患应急避险场所适宜性初步评价

地质灾害应急避险场所不仅在灾中或灾后能为灾民提供一个临时安置或生存场所,而且更是社会整合其有限资源开展防灾减灾工作的平台。本文结合北京市地质灾害应急避险现状及特征,提出了地质灾害隐患应急避险场所的概念、适宜性评价原则及标准。     

Simultaneous adoption of risk management strategies to manage the catastrophic risk of maize farmers in Bangladesh

GeoJournal - Risk and uncertainty are distinctive features of agricultural cultivation, which significantly affect the production and income. Risk management is an important way for farmers to...     

Perceived and actual risks of drought: household and expert views from the lower Teesta River Basin of northern Bangladesh

Natural Hazards - Disaster risk perception and risk appraisal are essential in formulating an appropriate disaster risk reduction policy. This study examines the actual vs perceived drought risks...     

Implications of the 2011 Tuscaloosa EF4 tornado for shelter and refuge decisions

This research provides an overview and discussion of language used in tornado safety recommendations along with development of a rubric for scaled tornado safety recommendations. Residents living in affected areas and those temporarily housed at relief stations were surveyed to collect information on their experiences during a 2-week period following the April 27, 2011 Tuscaloosa, Alabama EF4 tornado. Respondents were asked about their refuge plans during the storm and about any future changes to those plans. A specific focus of this research evaluated the adequacy of each respondent’s plan. Each refuge plan was compared using a tornado refuge rubric developed through the use of enhanced Fujita (EF) scale degree of damage ratings for available damage indicators. There was a significant difference in the counts of refuge adequacy for Tuscaloosa residents when holding the locations during the April 27 tornado constant and comparing adequacy ratings for weak (EF0–EF1), strong (EF2–EF3), and violent (EF4–EF5) tornadoes. There was also a significant difference when comparing the future tornado refuge plans of those same participants to the adequacy ratings for weak, strong, and violent tornadoes. This research introduces renewed discussion on proper refuge and shelter alternatives for days when violent tornadoes are forecasted.     

Evacuation behaviour of households and drivers during a tornado

With increasing concerns over the possibility of tornadoes in highly populated areas in Canada, emergency managers are looking into ways to mitigate the impacts of tornadoes. Given that tornadoes can cause enormous destruction, early warnings and proper evacuation actions are critically important in helping save lives. In this paper, a survey was conducted to analyse the evacuation behaviour of households and drivers during a hypothetical tornado warning situation in the city of Calgary, Alberta. Nearly 500 Calgarians took part in the online survey and provided information on how they would respond to tornado warnings after receiving them. This paper presents the results of the survey. Using probit models, the factors influencing these evacuation decisions are identified and discussed in detail. The results of the household evacuation model show the importance of improving awareness about the safest locations during a tornado. It further highlights the need for targeting the population under the age of 30, who are more likely to take unsafe evacuation actions. The model for evacuation of drivers shows that several factors, such as knowing the difference between a watch and a warning, awareness of safe cover, receipt of warnings through natural environmental cues and the level of education, trigger evacuation actions in avoiding a tornado threat.     

Hindcasting community-level building damage for the 2011 Joplin EF5 tornado

Resiliency of communities prone to natural hazards can be enhanced through the use of risk-informed decision-making tools. These tools can provide community decision makers key information, thereby providing them the ability to consider an array of mitigation and/or recovery strategies. The Center for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning, headquartered at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado, developed an Interdependent Networked Community Resilience (IN-CORE) computational environment. The purpose of developing this computational environment is to build a decision-support system, for professional risk planners and emergency responders, but even more focused on allowing researchers to explore community resilience science. The eventual goal was being to integrate a broad range of scientific, engineering and observational data to produce a detailed assessment of the potential impact of natural and man-made hazards for risk mitigation, planning and recovery purposes. The developing computational environment will be capable of simulating the effects from different natural hazards on the physical and socioeconomic sectors of a community, accounting for interdependencies between the sectors. However, in order to validate this computational tool, hindcasting of a real event was deemed necessary. Therefore, in this study, the community of Joplin, Missouri in the USA, which was hit by an EF-5 tornado on May 22, 2011, is modeled in the IN-CORE v1.0 computational environment. An explanation of the algorithm used within IN-CORE is also provided. This tornado was the costliest and deadliest single tornado in the USA in the last half century. Using IN-CORE, by uploading a detailed topological dataset of the community and the estimated tornado path combined with recently developed physics-based tornado fragilities, the damage caused by the tornado to all buildings in the city of Joplin was estimated. The results were compared with the damage reported from field studies following the event. This damage assessment was done using three hypothetical idealized tornado scenarios, and results show very good correlation with observed damage which will provide useful information to decision makers for community resilience planning.     

Correction to: Perceived and actual risks of drought: household and expert views from the lower Teesta River Basin of northern Bangladesh

Natural Hazards - A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04825-3     

Tornado shelters and the manufactured home parks market

Manufactured or mobile homes represent a fast growing portion of the housing market but are particularly vulnerable to tornadoes. In the US over 40% of tornado fatalities occur in mobile homes even though they comprise about 8% of US housing units. We examine the market for tornado shelters in manufactured home parks in Oklahoma. Almost 60% of parks in the state have shelters, with 90% of the shelters underground. Parks with shelters are not concentrated in urban areas but spread across the state, with parks with shelters in 32 counties. We find that rents for lots in parks with shelters are 5–8% higher, which generates sufficient revenue to approximately pay for shelters, but the point estimate is statistically significant in only one specification.

Comparison of the Canadian and US tornado detection and warning systems

Tornadoes are one of the most powerful and destructive weather events. The frequency of tornado occurrence is highest in North America, especially in the US Canada is second only to the US, and approximately, 80 occurrences are reported annually. Communities are impacted only when and if a tornado touches down on the ground. Early recognition of tornadoes and proper communication of warnings in the pre-touchdown phase helps the public to be ready and respond appropriately and effectively. Given that tornadoes are hard to predict and the warnings give only a very brief window of opportunity to prepare for evacuation to a secure underground or other location, each activity in the detection and warning phases is critically important. This study is focused on conducting a detailed comparison of the tornado detection and warning systems in the US and Canada. The sequences of activities and their interrelationships in the tornado detection and warning systems of each country are identified and developed as networks. A detection and warning network for Canada is developed, using Calgary as a case study, whereas a separate network is developed for the US, showing how local residents receive tornado warnings initiated by a local weather forecast office. Moreover, collaborating partners are identified, and their involvement at each level of the information flow is recognized. The two networks are compared and critically analyzed, focusing on the key issues, such as prediction/detection capabilities, warning decision-making, warning dissemination methods, and the spotters’ role. This qualitative comparison supports the recognition of key areas that need to be considered in improving the tornado detection and warning system in Canada.     

Spatiotemporal analysis of tornado exposure in five US metropolitan areas

Weather-related disasters and affiliated losses in the USA have amplified over time. However, prior research using normalization schemes on damage tallies suggests that weather hazard losses are not necessarily rising when inflation, changes in wealth, and growth in population are accounted. This study evaluates the latter factor, assessing if population changes and a sprawling development mode have led to increasing potential for tornado disasters in the USA. Specifically, this research shows where and how quickly tornado exposure is growing by appraising spatiotemporal trends in gridded population and housing unit data for five metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The macroscale risk to tornadoes is represented by tornado day climatology and is related to the exposure of the five MSAs, which include Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL; Dallas/Fort Worth, TX; Oklahoma City, OK; and St. Louis, MO. Supplementing the macroscale investigation, an observationally derived, hypothetical violent tornado track is transposed on various development types in each MSA to determine the microscale changes in human and built-environment exposure. Results demonstrate increased exposure in all MSAs at both the macro- and microscale. Of the five MSAs studied, Dallas, TX, had the greatest potential for a tornado disaster due to the higher risk for tornado occurrence comingling with the amount of MSA exposure. These results reveal further that amplifying exposure is a major impetus behind intensifying severe weather impacts and losses.     

Seismic hazard assessment for Mymensingh,Bangladesh

Mymensingh municipality lies in one of the most earthquake-prone areas of Bangladesh. The town was completely destroyed during the Great Indian Earthquake of 12 June 1897, for which the surface-wave magnitude was 8.1. In this study the 1897 Great Indian Earthquake was used as a scenario event for developing seismic microzonation maps for Mymensingh. For microzonation purposes SPT data from 87 boreholes were collected from different relevant organizations. To verify those data ten boreholes of depth up to 30 m were drilled. Intensity values obtained for different events were calibrated against attenuation laws to check applicability to the study area. Vibration characteristics at diverse points of the study area were estimated by employing the one-dimensional wave-propagation software SHAKE. SHAKE discretizes the soil profile into several layers and uses an iterative technique to represent the non-linear behavior of the soil by adjusting the material properties at each iteration step. The required input information includes depth, shear wave velocity, damping factor, and unit weight of each soil layer. The liquefaction resistance factor and the resulting liquefaction potential were estimated to quantify the severity of liquefaction. Quantification of secondary site effects and the weighting scheme for combining the various seismic hazards were heuristic, based on judgment and expert opinion.     

The good,the bad,and the ugly facts of tornado survival

Anytime that tornadoes interface with people, the results are often grim. The varied characteristics of tornado windfields and the diverse techniques of home construction complicate the expected outcomes of such interactions. Since it is now known that tornadoes do not produce unfathomable winds, engineers have developed techniques for increasing a home’s tornado resistance; thus, increasing the odds of survival of the inhabitants. Even considering these advances, tornadoes still wreak havoc and cause much causality every year. The story of tornado survival is partly chance, partly knowledge, and partly science. This essay utilizes analogies between a popular motion picture and the state of the art of tornado-resistant construction to illustrate the good, the bad, and the ugly facts of tornado survival. First examined are the positive aspects of tornado probability. The odds of experiencing a tornado are so low that massive expenditures are not necessarily cost effective. Next, various techniques of tornado-resistant construction practices are included for new and existing structures. Introduction of equations for predicting debris penetration are compared with various building techniques to describe the viability of tornado protection. The negative aspect of tornado/structure interfaces describes the fact that despite contemporary construction and prevention exercise, the unpredictability of the tornado windfield causes tremendous damage and loss of life. The final section examines the interface between tornadoes and mobile homes. This proves very ugly in every aspect of the word. Statistics and equations confirm the inherent dangers of such an interaction. Also, described is a novel approach to the design of a portable tornado shelter.     

Method to determine the locations of tsunami vertical evacuation shelters

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Great Tohoku Japan earthquake and tsunami focused a great deal of the world??s attention on the effect of tsunamis on buildings and infrastructure. When a tsunami impacts structures in a coastal community, the structures are often not strong enough to withstand the forces and may collapse. Therefore, to maximize the survival probability, people evacuate to higher ground or move outside the inundation zone. However, this is not always possible because of short warning times for near-field tsunamis. Thus, sheltering-in-place or ??sheltering-near-place?? using vertical evacuation should be considered as an alternative approach to lateral evacuation from a tsunami inundation zone. This paper presents the method and results of a study to develop and demonstrate a methodology that applied genetic optimization to determine optimal tsunami shelter locations with the goal of reducing evacuation time, thereby maximizing the probability of survival for the population in a coastal community. The City of Cannon Beach, Oregon, USA, was used as an illustrative example. Several cases were investigated ranging from a single shelter to multiple shelters with locations of high elevation already in place near the city. The method can provide decision-support for the determination of locations for tsunami vertical evacuation shelters. The optimum location of the shelter(s), which was found to vary depending on the number of shelters considered, can reduce the evacuation time significantly, thereby reducing the number of fatalities and increasing the safety of a community.     

Seismic source modeling and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangladesh

Natural Hazards - The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been performed for Bangladesh using background seismicity, crustal fault, and subduction zone source models. The latest ground...     

Approaches to agricultural technology adoption and consequences of adoption in the third world: a critical review

There is a large body of literature spanning many disciplines on the adoption of agricultural innovations in the Third World. Each discipline has identified its own set of factors which are concerned with particular aspects of the adoption—diffusion process. However, seldom are these findings consolidated so that clear perspective exists for policy makers and development specialists. In this paper, studies from a wide cross-section of disciplines have been grouped under four areas and are critically examined. Variations in adoption are linked to a combination of on and off farm factors which vary in importance depending on the socio-economic and institutional contexts in which the farmers operate. Widespread adoption occurs when opportunities are equally available and farmers are provided with the means to take advantage of them.