Increase of Local Seismicity Due to the Construction of Taipei 101？

Considering the controversy over whether the Taipei 101 skyscraper has induced an increase of local seismicity, we reanalyzed the local earthquake catalogue before and after the construction to investigate whether the reported seismicity increase related to the construction is statistically significant. Statistical tests obtained a positive conclusion about the apparent seismicity increase. However, the calculation of maximum ΔCFS shows that at most a 2.2×10-4 bar Coulomb Failure Stress change was produced by the construction. Therefore, whether the construction of Taipei 101 really triggered the increase of seismicity still remains an open question: Statistically-yes; physically-no.     

Hydrogeologic Controls on Induced Seismicity in Crystalline Basement Rocks Due to Fluid Injection into Basal Reservoirs

A series of M_b 3.8–5.5 induced seismic events in the midcontinent region, United States, resulted from injection of fluid either into a basal sedimentary reservoir with no underlying confining unit or directly into the underlying crystalline basement complex. The earthquakes probably occurred along faults that were likely critically stressed within the crystalline basement. These faults were located at a considerable distance (up to 10 km) from the injection wells and head increases at the hypocenters were likely relatively small (～70–150 m). We present a suite of simulations that use a simple hydrogeologic‐geomechanical model to assess what hydrogeologic conditions promote or deter induced seismic events within the crystalline basement across the midcontinent. The presence of a confining unit beneath the injection reservoir horizon had the single largest effect in preventing induced seismicity within the underlying crystalline basement. For a crystalline basement having a permeability of 2 × 10^?17 m² and specific storage coefficient of 10^?7/m, injection at a rate of 5455 m³/d into the basal aquifer with no underlying basal seal over 10 years resulted in probable brittle failure to depths of about 0.6 km below the injection reservoir. Including a permeable (k_z = 10^?13 m²) Precambrian normal fault, located 20 m from the injection well, increased the depth of the failure region below the reservoir to 3 km. For a large permeability contrast between a Precambrian thrust fault (10^?12 m²) and the surrounding crystalline basement (10^?18 m²), the failure region can extend laterally 10 km away from the injection well.     

A Seismic Model of Casing Failure in Oil Fields

—We develop a seismic model that characterises the sudden tensional failure of oil-well casings. The energy released by the rupture of a well casing is transformed into heat and seismic energy. The upper bound of the seismic efficiency of this process is estimated at about 3%. The static situation at the completion of a casing failure episode is modelled by calculating the static displacement field generated by two opposing forces separated by an arm. The azimuthal patterns of these displacements and the change in the strain and stress fields caused by the force couple are described. The dynamics of the failure episode are modelled as a dipole with a seismic moment equivalent to the product of the average drop in shear stress, the failure surface, and an arm. The radiated P and S waves have mean-square radiation pattern coefficients of 1/5 for P waves and 2/15 for S waves. The displacement field as a function of time during rupture and the spectral properties in the far field are derived. The most promising seismic parameters that can be used for distinguishing between casing failure events and other possible events are polarisation properties of S waves and S/P amplitude ratios. S-wave polarisation distinguishes between shear events and casing failure events. S/P amplitude ratios distin guish between tensile events and casing failure events.     

Seismicity Variations in the Southern Aegean,Greece, Before and After the Large (M7.7) 1956 Amorgos Earthquake Due to Evolving Stress

The largest earthquake (M₀=4.9·10²⁷ dyn·cm) of the 20^th century in the territory of Greece occurred south of Amorgos Island, causing extensive destruction in the southern Aegean area. It occurred on an ENE–trending normal fault that is seated parallel to the Islands southern coastline. Changes in the rates of moderate–size earthquakes (M 5.0) that occurred before and after the Amorgos earthquake, within circular regions centered on its epicenter with radii of 100, 150 and 200 km, are investigated. The rate for moderate–size events just before the main shock appears to be considerably increased when compared to those of either preceding or subsequent periods. Further inspection reveals that more evident seismicity fluctuations are attributed to distances exceeding 100 km. These changes may be indicative of a broad region that is approaching a high stress state prior to an eventual large earthquake. Close to the main event, that is, within the 100–km radius, a remarkable quiescence period lasting about two decades before its occurrence was observed. Changes in seismicity are discussed in combination with static stress changes calculated by the application of the stress evolutionary model that takes into account the coseismic slip associated with the larger events (M 6.5) since the beginning of the 20^th century and the tectonic loading on the major faults in the study area. These larger events, as with the intermediate magnitude seismicity taking place at distances exceeding 100 km and which encircled the quiescent area observed during the last 22 years before the Amorgos earthquake, are well correlated with stress-enhanced areas in each stage of the evolutionary model.     

Forest water use in the initial stages of reclamation in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region

Following large‐scale surface oil sands mining, large tracts of the boreal forest in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region of Western Canada are legally required to be reclaimed. A greater understanding of how these novel ecosystems function and develop with regard to water use is crucial to aid in the development of regulatory practices and protocols based on information from ecosystem recovery. In this paper, a 12‐year (2003–2014) eddy covariance measurement record of latent and sensible heat fluxes and gross ecosystem productivity of carbon dioxide is analysed to evaluate how a reclaimed boreal forest has developed during its initial growth period. The study site is a reclaimed oil sands saline‐sodic clay shale overburden deposit that was topped with 100 cm of glacial till and 20 cm of peat mineral mix. The site was seeded with barley (Hordeum spp.) in 2001 to reduce erosion of the soil cover whereas aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) and spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) boreal tree species were planted in 2004. Changes in structure and function corresponded to the transition of dominant vegetation cover from early successional species to forest. Leaf area index increased from a growing season peak of 0.9 in 2003 to 4.0 in 2014 and was associated with an increased growing season gross ecosystem productivity (4.9 to 8.9 g C m^?2 day^?1), an increased evapotranspiration (1.6 to 3.4 mm day^?1), and a decreased partitioning of energy to sensible heat (Bowen's ratio decreased from 1.1 to 0.4). Although canopy conductance increased throughout the 12 years, the shift from early successional species to trees with more conservative water use resulted in a decrease in conductance normalized by leaf area. Water use efficiency has increased slightly since 2008 with an average of 10.0 g CO₂ kg^?1 H₂O for the last 6 years. No prolonged dry periods were observed during the study period. The functioning of this novel ecosystem is evolving as expected on the basis of the trends observed for other natural and disturbed boreal forests.     

Growing season evapotranspiration in boreal fens in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region: Variability and environmental controls

Current efforts to assess changes to the wetland hydrology caused by growing anthropogenic pressures in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) require well-founded spatial and temporal estimates of actual evapotranspiration (ET), which is the dominant component of the water budget in this region. This study assessed growing season (May–September) and peak growing season (July) ET variability at a treed moderate-rich fen and treed poor fen (in 2013–2018), open poor fen (in 2011–2014), and saline fen (in 2015–2018) using eddy covariance technique and a set of complementary environmental data. Seasonal fluctuations in ET were positively related to net radiation, air temperature and vapour pressure deficit and followed trends typical for the Boreal Plains (BP) and AOSR with highest rates in June–July. However, no strong effect of water table position on ET was found. Strong surface control on ET is evident from lower ET values than potential evapotranspiration (PET); the lowest ET/PET was observed at saline fen, followed by open fen, moderately treed fen, and heavily treed fen, suggesting a strong influence of vegetation on water loss. In most years PET exceeded precipitation (P), and positive relations between P/PET and ET were observed with the highest July ET rates occurring under P/PET ~1. However, during months with P/PET > 1, increased P/PET was associated with decreased July ET. With respect to 30-year mean values of air temperature and P in the area, both dry and wet, cool and warm growing seasons (GS) were observed. No clear trends between ET values and GS wetness/coldness were found, but all wet GS were characterized by peak growing seasons with high daily ET variability.     

定量分析地震活动的活跃与平静特征

在对中国大陆、中国台湾、新西兰、意大利和葡萄牙等不同地区的原始地震目录做震源深度和震级记录完整时间分析及删除余震的基础上，通过聚类分析方法定量考察各个研究区域内中强地震的活跃与平静特征，得到了这些地区地震活跃时段Ta、活跃时段内相邻地震间隔时间t和平静时段Tq的分布及其置信区间。并用时间间隔分析法，在假设“地震活动时间分布的活跃与平静特征是一平稳随机过程”条件下，计算了各研究区域在活跃时段内发生的理论地震数目N′和各地区全部实际地震发生的概率P。结果发现地震活动时间分布的活跃与平静特征不服从平稳随机过程。     

Predisposition to Induced Seismicity in Some Czech Coal Mines

—Mining-induced seismicity associated with longwall face operations in the Ostrava- Karviná coal mines, Czech Republic, has been investigated in order to establish the conditions leading to a focal zone generation. The study, based on macroseismic and instrumental observations, proved that seismicity is influenced by natural as well as mining conditions. The first group includes the influence of faults, washouts and red beds, while the second one is represented by shaft and/or crosscut safety pillars and various types of remnant pillars. All the cases discussed show that many focal zones are generated in overstressed strata as a consequence of interaction of natural conditions and/or old workings with the active coal face. Received June 18, 1996, accepted March 10, 1997     

Seismicity Quantification and Its Application to Medium-term Earthquake Prediction

Bed on the analysis of each parameter describing seismicity,we think A(b)-value can betterquantitatively describe the feature of the enhancement and quietness of seismicity in this paper. Thedata of moderate or small earthquakes during 1972～1996 in North China are used in space scanningof A(b)-value. The result shows that 2～3 years before most strong earthquakes there wereObviously anomaly zones of A(b)-value with very good prediction effect. Some problems about themedium-term prediction by using A(b)-value are also discussed.     

地震活动相关性定量方法及其在印度板块动力触角对中国西部地区地震影响中的应用

针对地震活动相关性分析的实际需要,提出了一种定量分析不同区域地震活动相关性的方法。以此研究了印度板块东、西触角强震对青藏块体地震活动的影响,结果表明阿萨姆地区的强震活动与青藏块体的强震活动具有很高的相关性,而帕米尔地区的强震影响较小。通过与R值评分及基于板块动力作用分析结果的比较,证实了本方法的有效性。     

辽河油田注蒸汽泡沫封堵实验研究

利用核磁共振成象技术，采用质子密度的２ＤＦＴ的自旋回波成像方法，针对辽河油田的实际情况，采用注泡沫剂封堵地层的方法进行了研究。辽河油田三类发泡剂的ＳｕｎＴｅｃｈⅣ表面活性剂的发泡体积在高温下减小缓慢，具有良好的热稳定性，表明发泡剂形成的泡沫膜的强度和韧性较好，满足充当高温发泡剂的必要条件。     

中国大陆地震活动分期及其与构造运动的关系

利用应变积累释放曲线的方法，讨论中国各主要地震区带的平静－活跃期现象及其与构造运动之间的联系。中国西南地区的地震活动反映了由印度－欧亚板块碰撞引起的动力作用由西向东，由南向北的推过程。     

地震活动性的定量化及其在地震中期预报中的应用

在分析描述地震活动性的各类参数的基础上,认为Ａ（ｂ）值可以较好地定量描述一个地区的地震活动增强和平静特征。作者用１９７２￣１９９６年期间华北地区地震资料进行Ａ（ｂ）值空间扫描。结果表明绝大部分中强以上地震前２￣３年,在未来震中周围出现较大范围Ａ（ｂ）值中期异常区域,有很好的预报效果。文中还就Ａ（ｂ）值进行中期预报的有关问题进行了讨论。     

地震活动加速模型及其在中国的应用

运用岩石破裂的亚临界扩展理论,推导出区域地震活动性加速模型的基本公式．我们把中国板内的3个地震块体：华北亚板块、川滇块体和新疆亚板块按地震活动性及构造条件的差异分为7个研究区域,使用Sornette和Sammis的改进公式,分别对每个区域进行地震活动性加速模型分析．对于已经发生过的区域强震,模型能给出与实际强震较接近的震级与发震时间,表明地震活动性加速模型同样能适用于板内的地震活动．文中给出了地震活动加速模型预测的山西地震带、鄂尔多斯地震带、博乐——托克逊地震带和阿因柯——乌恰地震带未来强震可能的发生时间和震级．在同一亚板块内或块体中,各地震带的地震活动期在时间上较为相似．加速模型中参数可以用来表征区域地震活动强度,对于中国大陆,一般为0.4．对于台湾地震带和一些构造活动复杂的地震带,地震活动加速模型目前尚不能预测未来强震的震级和发震时间．     

Seismicity acceleration model and its application to several earthquake regions in China

With the theory of subcritical crack growth, we can deduce the fundamental equation of regional seismicity acceleration model. Applying this model to intraplate earthquake regions, we select three earthquake subplates: North China Subplate, Chuan-Dian Block and Xinjiang Subplate, and divide the three subplates into seven researched regions by the difference of seismicity and tectonic conditions. With the modified equation given by Sornette and Sammis (1995), we analysis the seismicity of each region. To those strong earthquakes already occurred in these region, the model can give close fitting of magnitude and occurrence time, and the result in this article indicates that the seismicity acceleration model can also be used for describing the seismicity of intraplate. In the article, we give the magnitude and occurrence time of possible strong earthquakes in Shanxi, Ordos, Bole-Tuokexun, Ayinke-Wuqia earthquake regions. In the same subplate or block, the earthquake periods for each earthquake region are similar in time interval. The constant αin model can be used to describe the intensity of regional seismicity, and for the Chinese Mainland, α is 0.4 generally. To the seismicity in Taiwan and other regions with complex tectonic conditions, the model does not fit well at present.     

Seismicity and focal mechanism in Tibetan Plateau and its implications to lithospheric flow

The Tibetan Plateau is characterized by its high seismicity produced by the continental collision still working at Himalaya. As seismology had made great contribution to the global tectonics in 1960s, it may also provide some improtant clues to the evolution and tectonics in continents. The present paper summarizes the seismicities, focal mechanisms and neotectionics in Tibetan Plateau. The authors suggest a new classification of the seismic belts or zones in the Plateau. The belt from Yadong to Anduo is an active seismic belt. The features of neotectonics and focal mechanisms are different on the west of this belt to the east of it. Most of the earthquakes with focal depthh>70 km in the Plateau situate on this belt. Different to Yuma, Arakan, the earthquakes withh>70 km in Yadong-Anduo belt are less and smaller, their focal mechanisms are normal faults. Appearance of earthquakes with h>70 km suggests that the uppermost mantle in this belt is unstable and the material is hard enough to accumulate strong strain energy. The authors stress the significance of the northwest-southeast striking fault zone of Yanshiping-Changdu. Several large earthquakes occurred in this fault zone are characterized by left-lateral strike slips. It is the southest one of the several left-lateral strike slip zones in the eastern Tibetan Plateau, and may represent the latest produced one of the left-lateral strike slip zones. South to the Bangong-Nujiang suture, the fault zone of Bengcuo-Jiali is a belt of discontinuous right-lateral strike slips with very strong seismicities. The pair-faults of Yanshiping-Changdu left-lateral strike slips and Bengcuo-Jiali right-lateral strike slips provide an evidence of the eastward flow of materials in the lithosphere of Qiang Tang terrain between the pair-faults. Altyn Tagh, Kun Lun and Xianshuihe may represent the residuals of the boundaries of ancient flow paths. Since the sutures and also the cooling effects were produced progressively from the north to south, the flow paths will move progressively southward during the geological times. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica, supp.14, 534–565, 1992.     

前兆地震活动图象及其在地震预报中的作用

本文根据长、中和短期预报研究对主要地震活动图象加以归类和简述。结果表明:(1)利用地震活动图象进行中、短期预报,预报时间量程可能达到1、2年,甚至几个月,但要进一步缩短预报的时间尺度就十分困难,除非有明显的前震序列活动;(2)地震活动图象分析,对于辨认未来主震(尤其是强主震)的位置是有效的;(3)强震和中强震前的图象特点是有区别的,据此,可以大概估计未来主震的震级。不过图象的空间尺度与主震震级无明显的相关性;(4)信号震、前兆震群和前震(包括早期前震)的确定应考虑到异常的地震活动时空图象。     

Seismicity Factor A-Value and Its Application to Mid-Term Earthquake Prediction in North China

The seismicity factor A-value is defined by synthesizing the seismicity precursors in time, space and magnitude in this paper. The seismicity data of moderate or small earthquakes during 1972 ~ 1996 in North China are used to perform spacial scanning of seismicity factor A-value. The result shows that there are obviously anomaly zones of A-value with better prediction effect in the mid-term of 2~3 years before most moderately strong earthquakes. Some problems regarding the mid-term prediction using A-value have been discussed.     

Background Seismicity and Its Application to Seismic Hazard Assessment in the North China Region

The historical earthquake activity is intense in the North China region. However, no middle-sized earthquakes have occurred in the last decades in the region since the MS6.2 earthquake in the Zhangbei region in 1998. The quiescence of moderate and strong earthquakes is quite prominent in North China. In this paper, we use small earthquake records in 1970~2009 to study background seismic activity in the North China region. The spatial distributions of seismic parameters are presented, including b-value, the maximum magnitude and annual occurrence probability of earthquakes of M≥6.0. Our results show regions with low b-value that include the Yuncheng region in the Shanxi rift, the Suqian region located in the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone and the Shijiazhuang region in the Taihangshan block. Our analysis on the synthetic spatial pattern of seismicity indicate that seismicity in the North China region is mainly affected by the regional dynamic factors of deep structures.