An evaluation of the relative importance of the effects of climate change and groundwater extraction on seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers in Atlantic Canada

To investigate the relative importance of projected sea-level rise, climate change effects on recharge, and groundwater extraction on seawater intrusion in important coastal aquifers in Atlantic Canada, a three-dimensional numerical model of density-dependent groundwater flow coupled with solute transport was developed for the Richibucto region of New Brunswick. The model was used, with an efficient 2^k factorial design approach, to perform simulations for the period 2011–2100. The results of the factorial analyses indicate that the relative importance of the three factors investigated varies depending on the model location considered. The effect of declining recharge is most significant at shallow to intermediate depths along the freshwater–seawater transition zone, while the effect of increasing pumping rates dominates at a location relatively close to the well field. The effect of sea-level rise is shown to be significant only at the much deeper inland toe of the transition zone. The spatial variation in importance is related to how different model boundary conditions influence freshwater flow at the different locations within the model domain. This investigation indicates that sea-level rise has the least significant effect (of the three factors considered) on future seawater intrusion in sandstone aquifers in the Richibucto region.     

Biostratigraphic correlation of Pleistocene marine deposits and sea levels,Atlantic coastal plain of the southeastern United States

Marine ostracodes from 50 localities were studied to determine the age and elevation of Pleistocene sea levels in the Atlantic coastal plain from Maryland to northern Florida. Using ostracode taxon and concurrent ranges, published planktic biostratigraphic, paleomagnetic, and radiometric data, ostracode assemblage zones representing early (1.8-1.0 my), middle (0.7-0.4 my), and late (0.3-0.01 my) Pleistocene deposition were recognized and used as a basis for correlation. Ostracode biofacies signifying lagoonal, oyster bank, estuarine, open sound, and inner sublittoral environments provided estimated ranges of paleodepths for each locality. From these data the following minimum and maximum Pleistocene sea-level estimates were determined for the southeastern coastal plain: late Pleistocene, 2–10 m from Maryland to northern Florida; middle Pleistocene, 6–15 m in northern South Carolina; early Pleistocene, 4–22 m in central North Carolina, 13–35 m in southern North Carolina, and 6–27 m in South Carolina. Climatically induced glacio-eustatic sea-level fluctuations adequately account for the late Pleistocene sea-level data, but other factors, possibly differential crustal uplift, may have complicated the early Pleistocene record.     

Extreme temperature scenarios in Mexicali,Mexico under climate change conditions

Extreme weather events can have severe consequences for the population and the environment. Therefore, in this study a temporal trend of annual temperatures was built with a time series from 1950 to 2010 for Mexicali, Mexico, and estimates of 5- to 100-year return periods are provided by modeling of summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures. A non-parametric Kendall’s tau test and the Sen’s slope estimator were used to compute trends. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied to the approximation of block maxima and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to values over a predetermined threshold. Due to the non-stationary characteristic of the series of temperature values, the temporal trend was included as a covariable in the location parameter and substantial improvements were observed, particularly with the extreme minimum temperature, compared to that obtained with the GEV with no covariable and with the GPD. A positive and significant statistically trend in both summer maximum temperature and winter minimum temperature was found. By the end of 21st century the extreme maximum temperature could be 2 to 3 °C higher than current, and the winter could be less severe, as the probabilistic model suggests increases of 7 to 9 °C in the extreme minimum temperature with respect to the base period. The foreseeable consequences on Mexicali city are discussed.     

Sea level,climate change and coastal evolution in Morar,northwest Scotland

Analyses of geomorphologically contrasting sites in Morar, NW Scotland, describe the forcing mechanisms of coastal change. Isolation basins (i.e. basins behind rock sills and now isolated from the sea following isostatic uplift) accumulated continuous marine and freshwater sediments from c.12 to 2 ka BP. Raised dune, marsh and wetland sites register breaching, migration and stability of dunes from c. 9 to 2 ka BP. High-resolution methods designed to address issues of macroscale and microscale sea-level changes and patterns of storminess include 1-mm sampling for pollen, dinocyst and diatom analyses, infra-red photography, X-ray photography and thin-section analysis. The data enhance the record of relative sea-level change for the area. Major phases of landward migration of the coast occurred during the period of low sea-level rise in the mid-Holocene as the rate of rise decreased from c. 3 to < 1 mm/year. Relative sea-level change controls the broad pattern of coastal evolution at each site; local site-specific factors contribute to short-term process change. There is no record of extreme events such as tsunami. Within a system of dynamic metastable equilibrium, the Holocene records show that site-specific factors determine the exact timing of system breakdown, e.g. dune breaching, superimposed on regional sea-level rise. The global average sea-level rise of 3 to 6 mm/yr by AD 2050 predicted by IPCC would only partly be offset in the Morar area by isostatic uplift of about 1 mm/yr. A change from relative sea-level fall to sea-level rise, in areas where the regional rate of uplift no longer offsets global processes, is a critical factor in the management of coastal resources.     

Submerged early Holocene coastal and terrestrial landforms on the inner shelves of Atlantic Canada

Coastal and terrestrial landforms that formed with lowered relative sea levels during the early postglacial period in Atlantic Canada were submerged during the Holocene transgression. However, these landforms are seldom seen on sea floor imagery. Factors that contribute to their destruction include the brevity of sea level lowstands and high wave energy on shallow modern shelves. We identify one situation within which preservation has been relatively good: large coastal lakes that existed for many thousands of years before being connected to the ocean by rising sea level in the mid-Holocene. We describe Bedford Basin, near Halifax, Nova Scotia, and deal more exhaustively with the Bras d'Or Lakes, an inland sea in Cape Breton, Nova Scotia. The preservation of shore platforms, barrier beaches and spits, and fluvial systems, was due to the rapid onset of the transgression and the relatively low wave energy in the subsequent marine phases. The well-preserved early Holocene coastlines are highly favourable targets in the search for evidence of human occupation in the early- to mid-Holocene.     

Phase relationship between sea level and abrupt climate change

Direct traces of past sea levels are based on the elevation of old coral reefs at times of sea level highstands. However, these measurements are discontinuous and cannot be easily correlated with climate records from ice cores. In this study we show a new approach to recognizing the imprint of sea level changes in continuous sediment records taken from the continental slope at locations that were continuously submerged, even during periods of sea level lowstand. By using a sediment core precisely synchronized with Greenland ice cores, we were able to recognize major floods of the Mediterranean continental shelf over the past 270 kyr. During the last glacial period five flooding events were observed at the onset of the warmest Greenland interstadials. Consistent correspondence between warm climate episodes and eustatic sea level rises shows that these global flooding events were generated by pronounced melting of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, due to rapid intensification of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.The method described in this study opens a new perspective for inter-hemispheric synchronization of marine climate records if applied in other continental margins from the Southern Hemisphere or the equatorial regions.     

Lateglacial climate change and coastal evolution in western Jura,Scottish Inner Hebrides

The geomorphic and sedimentological evidence for former sea-level changes in the exposed coastline of western Jura shows a clear coastal response to past changes in climate. In particular the rapid and high-magnitude climate changes associated with the onset and termination of the Younger Dryas appear to have been accompanied by major changes in coastal response. In western Jura, the temperate climate of the Lateglacial Interstadial was associated with beach-ridge deposition, with the earlier part of this period being associated with larger ridges than the latter. By contrast, the cold climate during the Younger Dryas appears to have been dominated by frost processes, sea-ice development and rapid rates of coastal erosion of bedrock. Cold-climate shore erosion of bedrock appears to have ended suddenly at the close of the Younger Dryas.     

Impacts of climate and river flooding on the hydro-ecology of a floodplain basin, Peace-Athabasca Delta, Canada since A.D. 1700

Multi-proxy paleolimnological analyses on lake sediment cores from “Spruce Island Lake” (58° 50.82′ N, 111° 28.84′ W), a perched basin in the northern Peace sector of the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD), Canada, give insights into the relative roles of flow regulation of the Peace River and climatic variability on the basin hydro-ecology. Results indicate substantial variability in basin hydro-ecology over the past 300 years ranging from seasonal to periodic desiccation in the 1700s to markedly wetter conditions during the early 1800s to early 1900s. The reconstruction is consistent with (1) dry climatic conditions that defined the peak of the Little Ice Age and subsequent amelioration evident in conventional ring-width and isotopic analyses of tree-ring records located hydrologically and climatically upstream of the PAD, and (2) Peace River flood history inferred from sub-annual magnetic susceptibility measurements from another lake sediment record in the Peace sector of the PAD. Although regulation of the Peace River for hydroelectric power generation since 1968 has long been considered a major stressor of the PAD ecosystem leading to reduced frequency of ice-jam and open-water flooding and an extended period of drying, our results show that current hydro-ecological status is not unprecedented as both wetter and drier conditions have persisted for decades in the recent past under natural climatic variability. Furthermore, paleolimnological evidence from Spruce Island Lake indicates that recently observed dryness is part of a longer trend which began some 20-40 years prior to Peace River regulation.     

Visualizing flood risk,enabling participation and supporting climate change adaptation using the Geoweb: the case of coastal communities in Nova Scotia,Canada

Impacts of climate change have been observed in natural systems and are expected to intensify in future decades (IPCC in Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPPC, Geneva, 2014). Governments are seeking to establish adaptive measures for minimizing the effects of climate change on vulnerable citizen groups, economic sectors and critical infrastructure (Adger et al. in Global Environ Change 15(2):77–86, 2005. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.005; Smit and Wandel in Global Environ Change 16(3):282–292, 2006. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008). Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to changing conditions due to rising sea levels and storm event intensification that produce new flood exposures (Richards and Daigle in Government of Prince Edward Island, Halifax, Nova Scotia, 2011 http://www.gov.pe.ca/photos/original/ccscenarios.pdf). However, communities oftentimes lack access to locally-relevant climate change information that can support adaptation planning. This research introduces the use of a Geoweb tool for supporting local climate change adaptation efforts in coastal Canadian communities. The Geoweb tool (called “AdaptNS”) is a web-based visualization tool that displays interactive flood exposure maps generated using local climate change projections of sea level rise and storm surge impacts between the years 2000 and 2100. AdaptNS includes participatory features that allow users to identify and share specific locations to protect against present and future coastal flood events. By soliciting feedback from community members, AdaptNS is shown to support local adaptation through the provision of flood exposure visuals, as a platform for identifying adaptation priorities, and as an avenue to communicate local risks to external entities that could facilitate local adaptation initiatives (e.g. upper levels of government). Future Geoweb research directions include improving the visualization of climate change projection uncertainties, the expansion of informational and participation capabilities, and understanding the potential for long-term adoption of Geoweb tools in adaptation decision-making.     

Extreme wind gust hazard in Australia and its sensitivity to climate change

For consideration of structural design of buildings and infrastructure in Australia, this paper presents hazard modelling and mapping of extreme wind gusts under the current climate and likely future climate change. Statistical and probabilistic approaches are applied to analyse the daily extreme wind gust data recorded between 1939 and 2007 at 545 anemometer stations around Australia. The estimated hazards are compared with the regional design wind speeds specified by the structural design standard, AS/NZS 1170.2:2011. Our results indicate that, under the current climate, structures in the areas on the west of and around Brisbane, Queensland and Newcastle, New South Wales, may be under higher gust hazard than they are designed for. Sensitivity study shows that these areas are also sensitive to the projected synoptic wind intensity changes. When subjected to ±20 % intensity change and ±50 % occurrence frequency change of tropical cyclones, the northwest coast of Western Australia, the northern part of Northern Territory, and the northeast coast between Cairns and Townsville, Queensland, will experience around ±10 m/s changes in extreme wind gust speeds of 500-year return period.     

Effects of climate change on shallow landslides in a small coastal catchment in southern Italy

In different areas of the world, shallow landslides represent a remarkable hazard inducing fatalities and economic damages. Then, the evaluation about potential variation in frequency of such hazard under the effect of climate changes should be a priority for defining reliable adaptation measurements. Unfortunately, current performances of climate models on sub-daily scales, relevant for heavy rainfall events triggering shallow landslides, are not reliable enough to be used directly for performing slope stability analysis. In an attempt to overcome the constrains by gap in time resolution between climate and hazard models, the paper presents an integrated suitable approach for estimating future variations in shallow landslide hazard and managing the uncertainties associated with climate and sub-daily downscaling models. The approach is tested on a small basin on Amalfi coast (southern Italy). Basing on available basin scale critical rainfall thresholds, the paper outlines how the projected changes in precipitation patterns could affect local slope stability magnitude scenarios with different relevances as effect of investigated time horizon and concentration scenario. The paper concludes with qualitative evaluations on the future effectiveness of the local operative warning system in a climate change framework.     

The impact of climate change on coastal geological disasters in southeastern China

Climate change is presently a major global challenge. As the world??s largest developing country, China is particularly vulnerable to global warming, especially in the rapidly developing coastal regions in the southeast of the country. This paper provides an overview of the impacts of climate change on the nature of geological disasters in the coastal regions of southeastern China. In the context of climate change, processes with the potential for causing geological disasters in this region, including sea-level rise, land subsidence, storm surges, and slope failures, which already have a substantial occurrence history, are all aggravated. All these processes have their own characteristics and relevance to climate change. Sea-level rise together with land subsidence reduces the function of dikes and flood prevention infrastructure in the study areas and makes the region more vulnerable to typhoons, storm surges, floods, and astronomical tidal effects. Storm surges have caused great losses in the study areas and also have contributed to increases in rainstorms. As a result, numerous rainfall-induced slope failures, characterized by focused time concentration, high frequencies, strong ??burstiness,?? and substantial damage, occur in the study areas. To prevent and mitigate such disasters that are accelerated by climate change, and to reduce losses, a series of measures is proposed that may help to achieve sustainable development in coastal southeastern China.     

Assessment of climate change impacts on flooding vulnerability for lowland management in southwestern Taiwan

Taiwan suffers from losses of economic property and human lives caused by flooding almost every year. Flooding is an inevitable, reoccurring, and the most damaging disaster in Taiwan since Taiwan is located in the most active tropic cyclone formation region of the Western Pacific. Flooding problem is further worse in land subsidence areas along southwestern coast of Taiwan due to groundwater overdraft. Increasing number of people is threatened with floods owing to climate change since it would induce sea level rise and intensify extreme rainfall. Assessments of flooding vulnerability depend not only on flooding severity, possible damage of assets exposed to floods should also be simultaneously considered. This paper aims at exploring how climate change might impact the flooding vulnerability of lowland areas in Taiwan. A flooding vulnerability evaluation scheme is proposed in this study which incorporates flooding severity (the maximum inundation depth determined by a two-dimensional model) and potential economic losses for various land uses. Effects of climate change on flooding vulnerability focus on alterations of rainfall depth for various recurrence intervals. The flood-prone Yunlin coastal area, located in southwestern Taiwan, is chosen to illustrate the proposed methodology. The results reveal that reducing flooding vulnerability can be achieved by either reducing flooding severity (implementation of flood-mitigation measures) or decreasing assets exposed to floods (suspension of land uses for flood-detention purpose). Performance of currently implemented flood-mitigation measures is insufficient to reduce flooding vulnerability when facing with climate change. However, the scenario suggested in this study to sustain room for floods efficiently reduces flooding vulnerability in both without- and with climate change situations. The suggestions provided in this study could support decision processes and help easing flooding problems of lowland management in Taiwan under climate change.     

Groundwater and climate change: a sensitivity analysis for the Grand Forks aquifer,southern British Columbia,Canada

The Grand Forks aquifer, located in south-central British Columbia, Canada was used as a case study area for modeling the sensitivity of an aquifer to changes in recharge and river stage consistent with projected climate-change scenarios for the region. Results suggest that variations in recharge to the aquifer under the different climate-change scenarios, modeled under steady-state conditions, have a much smaller impact on the groundwater system than changes in river-stage elevation of the Kettle and Granby Rivers, which flow through the valley. All simulations showed relatively small changes in the overall configuration of the water table and general direction of groundwater flow. High-recharge and low-recharge simulations resulted in approximately a +0.05 m increase and a –0.025 m decrease, respectively, in water-table elevations throughout the aquifer. Simulated changes in river-stage elevation, to reflect higher-than-peak-flow levels (by 20 and 50%), resulted in average changes in the water-table elevation of 2.72 and 3.45 m, respectively. Simulated changes in river-stage elevation, to reflect lower-than-baseflow levels (by 20 and 50%), resulted in average changes in the water-table elevation of –0.48 and –2.10 m, respectively. Current observed water-table elevations in the valley are consistent with an average river-stage elevation (between current baseflow and peak-flow stages).

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Resumen El acuífero de los Grand Forks, situado al sur de la Columbia Británica central (Canadá) ha sido utilizado como lugar de estudio para modelar la sensibilidad de un acuífero a los cambios en la recarga y el caudal de los ríos de acuerdo con escenarios previstos de cambio climático en la región. Los resultados sugieren que las variaciones en la recarga al acuífero bajo los diversos escenarios, que han sido modelados en régimen estacionario, tienen un impacto mucho menor en las aguas subterráneas que los cambios en el caudal de los ríos Kettle y Granby, que discurren por el valle. Todas las simulaciones muestran diferencias relativamente pequeñas en la configuración regional de los niveles freáticos y en la dirección general del flujo subterráneo. Las simulaciones de recarga elevada y baja causan un incremento de 0,05 m y un decremento de 0,025 m, respectivamente, en los niveles del acuífero. Los cambios de la elevación del río, simulados para reflejar niveles de flujo mayores que los valores pico (en un 20% y un 50%) resultan en cambios medios de los niveles del acuífero de 2,72 m y 3,45 m, respectivamente. Los cambios simulados en la elevación del río para flujos inferiores al caudal de base (en un 20% y en un 50%) provocan descensos en los niveles de 0,48 y 2,10 m, respectivamente. Los niveles actuales del acuífero en el valle son coherentes con una elevación media del nivel en el río (entre el caudal de base actual y los picos de caudal).

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Résumé L'aquifère de Grand Forks, situé en Colombie britannique (Canada), a été utilisé comme zone d'étude pour modéliser la sensibilité d'un aquifère à des modifications de la recharge et du niveau de la rivière, correspondant à des scénarios envisagés de changement climatique dans cette région. Les résultats font apparaître que les variations de recharge de l'aquifère pour différents scénarios de changement climatique, modélisées pour des conditions de régime permanent, ont un impact sur le système aquifère beaucoup plus faible que les changements du niveau des rivières Kettle et Granby, qui coulent dans la vallée. Toutes les simulations ont montré des différences relativement faibles dans la configuration d'ensemble de la nappe et dans la direction générale des écoulements. Des simulations de conditions de recharge forte et de recharge faible produisent respectivement une remontée de 0,05 m et un abaissement de 0,025 m, approximativement, des cotes de la nappe pour l'ensemble de l'aquifère. Des changements simulés de la cote du niveau de la rivière, pour refléter des niveaux plus hauts que ceux des pics de crues (de 20 et de 50%), produisent respectivement des remontées de la nappe de 2,72 et 3,45 m en moyenne. Des changements simulés de l'altitude du niveau de la rivière, pour refléter des niveaux plus bas que ceux de basses eaux (de 20 et de 50%), produisent respectivement des abaissements de la nappe de 0,48 et 2,10 m en moyenne. Les altitudes courantes observées de la nappe dans la vallée sont cohérentes avec une cote moyenne du niveau de la rivière (entre les niveaux courants de basses eaux et de crues).

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A multi-proxy lacustrine record of Holocene climate change on northeastern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

Reconstructions of past environmental changes are critical for understanding the natural variability of Earth's climate system and for providing a context for present and future global change. Radiocarbon-dated lake sediments from Lake CF3, northeastern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada, are used to reconstruct past environmental conditions over the last 11,200 years. Numerous proxies, including chironomid-inferred July air temperatures, diatom-inferred lakewater pH, and sediment organic matter, reveal a pronounced Holocene thermal maximum as much as 5°C warmer than historic summer temperatures from 10,000 to 8500 cal yr B.P. Following rapid cooling 8500 cal yr B.P., Lake CF3 proxies indicate cooling through the late Holocene. At many sites in northeastern Canada, the Holocene thermal maximum occurred later than at Lake CF3; this late onset of Holocene warmth is generally attributed to the impacts of the decaying Laurentide Ice Sheet on early Holocene temperatures in northeastern Canada. However, the lacustrine proxies in Lake CF3 apparently responded to insolation-driven warmth, despite the proximity of Lake CF3 to the Laurentide Ice Sheet and its meltwater. The magnitude and timing of the Holocene thermal maximum at Lake CF3 indicate that temperatures and environmental conditions at this site are highly sensitive to changes in radiative forcing.     

Assessing the impacts of climate change on sustainable management of coastal aquifers

Water is a vital resource for the survival of not only human population, but also almost all ecosystems. Constituting 30 % of all freshwater, groundwater is the main source of available freshwater. Coastal aquifers, which serve as the major freshwater source for densely populated zones, are of vital importance and quite vulnerable to climate change. This paper examines the significant consequences of climate change, decreasing recharge rates, sea-level rise and increasing freshwater demand on the sustainable management of coastal aquifers, via a hypothetical case study. A 3-D numerical model is developed using SEAWAT, to simulate a circular island aquifer in the form of a freshwater lens surrounded by saltwater. Issues such as sloping land surface resulting in landward migration of the coastal boundary and transient response of the system due to pumping are considered through a set of predictive simulations. To assess the sensitivity of the model results to important parameters, a sensitivity analysis is performed. Results of this research, revealing the effects of mentioned pressures on the long-term sustainability of the freshwater resource, are evaluated on the basis of groundwater reserves and intrusion of the freshwater–saltwater interface in lateral and vertical directions. These outcomes are further used to determine the sustainable pumping rate of the system, considering both quantity and quality of the groundwater resources.     

Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater levels on the Kerdi-Shirazi plain,Iran

It is important to predict how groundwater levels in an aquifer will respond to various climate change scenarios to effectively plan for how groundwater resources will be used in the future. Due to the overuse of groundwater resources and the multi-year drought in the Kerdi-Shirazi plain in Iran, some land subsidence and a drop in groundwater levels has taken place, and without active management, further degradation of the groundwater resource is possible under predicted future climate change scenarios in the country. To determine the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater levels in the region, the groundwater model GMS was coupled with the atmospheric circulation model HADCM3 using scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 for the period 2016–2030. The results of the climate modelling suggest that the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will experience an increase in minimum temperature and maximum temperature of, respectively, between 0.03 and 0.47, and 0.32–0.45 °C for this time period. The results of the groundwater modelling suggest that water levels on the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will continue to decline over the forecast period with decreases of 34.51, 36.57 and 33.58 m being predicted, respectively, for climate scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. Consequently, groundwater resources in the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will urgently need active management to minimize the effects of ongoing water level decline and to prevent saltwater intrusion and desertification in the region.     

Multivariate statistical estimates of Holocene vegetation and climate change,forest-tundra transition zone,NWT, Canada

Newly derived fossil pollen data were obtained from four sites along a transect from the boreal forest limit into tundra in the eastern Northwest Territories. Multivariate statistical analyses were employed to interpret the pollen assemblages. Transfer functions were constructed between the pollen data and climatic data, and paleoclimatic estimates were derived. The objective nature of the reconstructions provides an independent verification of the general outlines of the chronology of tree-line movements during the mid- and late-Holocene as established in previous paleosol and pollen studies. Boreal forest extended to approximately 62°N, associated with mean July temperatures 1 to 3°C above modern means, from at least 5500 to 3700 yr B.P. Although a major episode of southward displacement of tree line at about 3700 yr B.P. is recorded, later events are not clearly represented. Considerations of the statistics, the time scales, and the nature of the pollen rain suggest only conservative interpretations of the results are possible. It is suggested that the pollen sites may have been sensitive recorders of regional vegetation change only when they were near the ecotone, corresponding to a climatic threshold.