华中地区夏季区域性极端日降水事件变化特征及环流异常

利用1961—2010年夏季(6—8月)华中区域239个中国国家级气象台站逐日降水观测资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料集,对华中地区夏季区域性极端日降水事件及环流异常进行了分析,结果表明:华中地区夏季区域性极端日降水量的99百分位阈值为23.585 mm/d,20世纪80年代中期以后的极端日降水事件明显偏多,且6月下旬至7月中旬为华中地区极端降水多发期。极端日降水事件由具有从低层到高层呈斜压结构的异常环流控制,其南侧的水汽通过孟加拉湾与中国南海地区的异常反气旋外围呈阶梯状输送至华中地区。位于青藏高原东北侧的波作用量通量向华中地区的辐合有利于华中地区上空波动扰动的产生和维持,同时极端日降水事件的发生亦与华中地区的大气净加热及华中周边大范围区域中的净冷却形成的加热场梯度有关。这些结果表明华中地区夏季区域性极端日降水事件有显著的年际和年代际变化,且极端事件的发生与华中地区气旋性环流异常、青藏高原东北侧地形强迫、以及华中地区与周边非绝热加热梯度异常关系密切。     

华南地区7-10月两类区域性极端降水事件特征及环流异常对比

利用1981—2016年7—10月中国753站逐日降水资料、气象信息综合分析处理系统（MICAPS）逐日站点降水资料、日本东京台风中心西北太平洋热带气旋（TC）最佳路径资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料集,分析了华南地区区域性日降水极端事件（RDPE事件）的统计特征及环流异常。根据华南地区RDPE事件的发生是否受热带气旋影响将其分为TCfree-RDPE和TCaff-RDPE两类事件,其中TCaff-RDPE事件占42%且集中发生在8月4—5候;TCfree-RDPE事件以7月发生频数最多,占其总频次的1/2以上。TCfree-RDPE事件发生时,华南地区受异常气旋性环流控制,来自西太平洋和中国南海的暖湿气流与北方冷气团在此汇合并形成一条狭长的水汽辐合带,低层辐合、高层辐散,显著强烈的上升运动为TCfree-RDPE事件的发生与维持提供了有利条件;与此同时,波扰动能量由高原东北侧及河西走廊地区向华南一带传播并在华南显著辐合,有利于华南上空扰动的发展和维持。TCaff-RDPE事件发生时,华南上空由低层到高层的斜压环流结构更为明显,异常上升运动更加强烈,热带气旋在其运动过程中携带了大量源自孟加拉湾、中国南海和西太平洋地区的水汽并输送至华南地区,水汽辐合气流更为强盛。同时,波扰动能量由高纬度地区沿河西走廊向下游传播,但在华南地区辐合不甚明显。两类极端事件发生时,加热场上的差异亦明显。华南及邻近地区上空的大气净加热及其南侧大范围区域的净冷却所形成的加热场梯度对TCfree-RDPE事件的发生有利。而TCaff-RDPE事件发生时,〈Q₁〉和〈Q₂〉在经向上由18°N以南、华南及其邻近地区、32°N以北呈负—正—负的异常分布型,正距平值更高,加热场梯度更大,有利于TCaff-RDPE事件的维持。这些结果有利于人们认识和预测华南区域性日降水极端事件的发生。      

东北夏季降水分型及其大气环流特征

利用1961—2010年中国东北122站逐日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及中国国家气候中心整理的160站月平均温度资料,对东北6月、7月、8月的降水进行分型,在此基础上分析各类降水型对应的环流形势。结果表明:东北6月、7月、8月降水均可划分为两大类四小类,6月与8月的分型结果相同,为全区一致型(同多型、同少型)和南北反位相型(南部型、北部型),7月可分为全区一致型(同多型、同少型)和东西反位相型(东部型、西部型)。6月东北降水主要受东北冷涡影响,冷涡越强,降水越多,且当鄂霍次克海阻塞高压出现明显异常时,6月东北降水将呈现南北反位相特征;7月、8月降水主要受东亚夏季风影响,其中东北降水全区一致型与西太平洋副热带高压的位置以及沿亚洲西风急流东传的波列有关,而降水南北(东西)反位相型则与西太平洋副热带高压的强度有关。     

Anomalous circulation patterns in association with two types of daily precipitation extremes over southeastern China during boreal summer

Based on the daily rainfall data from China Meteorological Administration, the tropical cyclone (TC) best track data from Japan Meteorological Agency, and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data from NOAA, regional mean daily precipitation extreme (RDPE) events over southeastern China (specifically, the Fujian-Jiangxi region (FJR)) and the associated circulation anomalies are investigated. For the summers of 1979–2011, a total of 105 RDPE events are identified, among which 35 are TC-influenced (TCIn-RDPE) and 70 are TC-free events (TCFr-RDPE). Distinct differences between these two types of RDPEs are found in both their statistical features and the related circulation patterns. TCFr-RDPEs usually occur in June, while TCIn-RDPEs mainly take place during July–August. When TCFr-RDPEs happen, a center of the anomalous cyclonic circulation is observed over the FJR, with an anomalous anticyclonic circulation to the south of this region. The warm/moist air flows from the South China Sea (SCS) and western Pacific meet with colder air from the north, forming a narrow convergent belt of water vapor over the FJR. Simultaneously, positive diabatic forcing anomalies are observed over the FJR, whereas negative anomalies appear over both its south and north sides, facilitating the formation and maintenance of the cyclonic circulation anomaly, as well as the upward motion of the atmosphere, over the FJR. When TCIn-RDPEs occur, southeastern China is dominated by a TC-related stronger anomalous cyclonic circulation. An anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the mid and high latitudes north of the FJR exists in the mid and upper troposphere, opposite to the situation during TCFr-RDPE events. Abundant warm/wet air is carried into the FJR from both the Indian Ocean and the SCS, leading to a large amount of latent heat release over the FJR and inducing strong ascending motion there. Furthermore, large differences are also found in the manifestation of Rossby wave energy propagation between these two types of RDPE events. The results of this study are helpful to deepen our understanding of the mechanisms behind these two types of RDPE events.     

华南地区汛期极端降水的概率分布特征

利用1960-2005年华南地区71个测站的逐日降水量资料和NCEP/NCAR南半球月平均海平面气压场再分析资料,采用Le Page榆验、广义极值分布等统计诊断方法,研究了华南地区近46 a前汛期(4-6月)和后汛期(7-9月)极端降水的时空变化及概率分布特征.并讨论了南半球澳大利亚高压和马斯克林高压强度指数与华南汛期暴雨日数间年代际变化的关系.结果表明:(1)1992年华南地区降水发生了由减少趋势到增多趋势的突变,降水趋势发生突变后前汛期极端降水量和日极端降水强度有所下降,而后汛期则是显著增强.(2)华南汛期年平均日最大降水量、50 a一遇日最大降水量极值和暴雨日数的空间分布特征相似,即前汛期的空间分布自南向北呈现"低-高-低"的分布趋势,后汛期呈现由沿海到内陆的"高-低"的分布趋势.(3)1992年发生突变后,前、后汛期年平均日最大降水量和年平均暴雨日数显著增加和减少的空间分布基本一致.(4)就年代际变化而言,南半球澳大利亚高压和马斯克林高压的强度变化是华南汛期降水异常的重要气候背景,即当两高压处在同时增强时期时,华南前汛期极端降水处于偏少阶段,后汛期则处于偏多阶段.     

2014年夏季长江流域持续性低温的大尺度环流异常

采用中国地面站气温逐日观测资料、NOAA全球逐日海表温度资料,及NCEP/NCAR的全球日均再分析资料,研究了2014年持续性低温的三维结构及大尺度环流异常。结果表明,2014年的低温异常,除了在陆地上区域性地出现在长江流域,还以大尺度带状的形式、从陆地延伸到海洋上。这种带状异常不只出现在近地面,在大气各层（925～500 hPa）都能看到。分析指出,大气中的这个低温带主要由高纬大气环流异常造成。在位势高度场上,最重要的异常出现在高纬60°N,有呈带状的位势高度正距平,它引导（距平意义上的）偏北气流从正北和东北偏东方向侵入,在其南侧形成一带状的偏低温区。大气各层均呈现出这种在高纬有位势高度正距平、相应地在稍南的低纬（40°N）有位势高度负距平、两者之间为低温区的分布特征。从低层往上,这种配置型式整体表现出由南往北的倾斜,其垂直剖面表现为距平意义上的、大尺度、类似于锋面的倾斜结构。文中用简单的概念模型对此进行理解,认为这种结构是由大气动力异常和热力异常相互影响、共同作用而形成的。     

大尺度环流的年代际变化对初夏华南持续性暴雨的影响

利用1961-2010年中国逐日降水数据和NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料集,研究了大尺度环流的年代际变化对不同频发年代华南持续性暴雨的影响。结果表明,虽然过去50年里华南持续性暴雨的发生存在两个频发时段(20世纪60年代中期到70年代中期、20世纪90年代初到2010年),其典型环流配置都表现为中高纬度冷空气和低纬度充沛水汽的配合,但不同频发时段的大尺度环流配置明显不同,这种配置使得两个频发时段的暴雨发生特点有所不同,最近20年的暴雨发生次数更多,强度更强,持续时间更长。在频发的1964-1976年,高纬度的冷空气主要来自西西伯利亚上空深厚的低槽前部,而此时南亚高压偏弱,西太平洋副热带高压偏弱、偏东,低纬度的水汽主要来自孟加拉湾印缅低压槽前,可降水量偏小,但垂直速度较大,水汽辐合较旺盛,华南上空大气环流较不稳定;在频发的1991-2010年,鄂霍次克海上空附近的高压脊活跃,高纬度冷空气主要来自高压后部,低纬度西太平洋副热带高压偏强,位置偏西,其西北侧的水汽源源不断输送到华南上空,故可降水量增多,伴随着强大的南亚高压提供的良好的高层辐散条件,华南上空垂直速度增大,水汽辐合明显,强有利的环流配置导致1991-2010年华南持续性暴雨强度更大、范围更广。因此,大气环流的年代际转型使得华南持续性暴雨发生了巨大改变,故在未来做预测时应充分考虑不同年代际环流背景场对华南持续性暴雨的重要影响。     

Changing patterns in rainfall extremes in South Australia

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Daily rainfall records from seven stations in South Australia, with record lengths from 50 to 137 years and a common period of 36 years, are...     

华南前汛期持续暴雨环流分型初步研究

采用1961—2010年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料和台站观测降水量资料,按一定标准选取了华南前汛期24个持续暴雨过程;并且按基本判据确定逐年华南夏季风降水开始日期。然后依据南亚高压环流型和相对于该年夏季风降水开始的早晚,将这些暴雨过程划分为夏季风降水前、后南亚高压东部型,夏季风降水后南亚高压带状、西部型共4个类型;其中,夏季风后南亚高压西部型次数最多、平均持续时间最长。所有类型持续暴雨的相同点是:广东东北部附近均为暴雨频率和雨量高值区;暴雨期间华南150 h Pa位势高度增加、500 h Pa位势高度减少;华南处在150 h Pa偏西风急流南侧辐散区中;850 h Pa华南沿海有明显的西南气流,低层辐合在华南东北部最明显;两广沿海为可降水量大值区;华南的整层水汽输送主要呈现西南向。不同点是:夏季风后南亚高压西部型平均雨量较小,夏季风后南亚高压带状型与西部型在印度洋上存在明显的偏东风高空急流;夏季风后南亚高压类型在两广沿海的可降水量数值较大。     

2013年华南前汛期持续性强降水的大尺度环流与低频信号特征

自2013年3月下旬开始,华南地区遭遇持续性强降水袭击。采用小波分析、交叉小波变换和小波相干、集合经验模态分解(EEMD)、带通滤波等统计方法,分析2013年华南前汛期持续性强降水过程的大尺度大气环流和低频特征,寻找影响持续性强降水可能的前期信号。揭示出:(1)2013年华南前汛期持续性强降水主要分为两个时段:3月26日—4月11日(第1阶段)和4月23日—5月30日(第2阶段)。前者华南雨带呈现西北一东南分布,由北向南降水量逐渐增大,后者降水强度较前者强,雨带主要集中在华南北部和东南沿海地区。(2)第1阶段华南降水主要受北方冷空气的持续影响,第2阶段主要受西太平洋副热带高压和南海季风的影响。两个阶段的环流特征明显不同:第1阶段在对流层中层主要对应西高东低的经向环流,东亚大槽深厚、东北冷涡长时间盘踞,北方冷空气与来自西太平洋副热带高压西北侧的暖湿气流交汇在华南,此时以冷式锋面降水为主;第2阶段500 hPa高度场为两脊一槽的分布型。热带对流活跃,其上空表现一异常的气旋环流,具有季风降水的性质。(3)第1(2)阶段降水呈现出20—50(8—15)d的振荡特征,可能是北方冷空气活动频繁(西太平洋副热带高压加强和南海季风爆发)的影响,交叉小波功率谱分析得到,东北冷涡(南海北部水汽输送的纬向分量)可能提前1(1/2)个周期,对华南降水具有一定的指示。     

北京地区夏季极端降水变化特征及城市化影响

利用1981-2016年京津冀地区174个国家站逐日降水资料,采用百分位方法和线性倾向估计方法对京津冀地区极端降水的时空分布特征及演变趋势进行了分析。结果表明：（1）对于京津冀地区极端降水空间分布,不同百分位降水阈值表现为一致的分布特征,年平均极端降水量、平均极端降水强度与百分位极端降水阈值分布大体一致,而年平均极端降水日数的分布则与其相反。（2）年平均极端降水量在103.6~259.1 mm之间,年平均极端降水日数在3.0~4.0 d之间,平均极端降水强度在大雨到暴雨之间,极端降水量对总降水量贡献达28%以上。（3）极端降水总站次和极端降水日数年变化趋势一致,7月、8月和10月是极端降水较活跃月份。（4）在36 a期间,年平均极端降水量、年平均极端降水日数、平均极端降水强度以及极端降水量对总降水量贡献的变化趋势分布情况基本一致,呈减少趋势的站点均相对较多,年平均极端降水量增减幅度较大,年平均极端降水日数变化在1 d·（10 a）^-1以内,平均极端降水强度和极端降水量对总降水量贡献减少趋势相对明显。

     

近20年中国气象灾害损失的初步分析

采用全国气象部门收集的县（区）域行政单元灾情普查资料,结合全国气象站点降水观测资料,分析了1984—2008年中国暴雨及其引发的洪涝灾害的时空演变特点及灾害损失情况,揭示了气候变化及人类活动双重作用下中国暴雨洪涝灾害变化趋势和演变特点,以及暴雨洪涝灾害影响的时空差异性。结果表明：近25 a来中国暴雨日数总体上稍有增加,暴雨强度和暴雨天数的空间分布均表现为南方高于北方,东部高于西部的特点,20世纪90年代中后期为中国暴雨高发期。研究时段内,中国暴雨洪涝灾害造成的直接经济损失呈增加趋势,但直接经济损失占当年GDP的比例则呈下降趋势,平均每年经济损失约为573亿元人民币,损失较高的地区主要集中在中国南方地区,县域年平均损失超过2 000万元的县约占15%,其中有34个县超过亿元。受灾人口呈增加趋势,但因灾死亡人口呈下降趋势;暴雨洪涝灾害对农作物受灾面积和绝收面积的影响均呈微弱上升趋势,年平均作物受灾面积近9.00×10⁶ hm²,作物绝收面积为1.27×10⁶ hm²。

     

华南4—5月持续性干旱及其环流背景

用测站降水量资料和NCEP-DOEⅡ再分析资料等,统计分析了华南春季各月降水量逐年变化的相互关系以及华南4—5月持续性干旱对应的大气环流异常特征,初步探讨了与华南4—5月持续性干旱有关的海温异常及其可能的影响机理。华南春季降水量主要变异型为全区一致型,近30年来华南春季降水量在减少,华南4、5月降水量的逐年变化有显著的同相特征。华南春旱主要是由4—5月的降水持续偏少造成的。在华南4—5月持续干旱年,华南附近高低空都存在一个异常的反气旋,并在华南上空造成异常下沉运动;东亚大槽南支偏弱,不利于中高纬度冷空气南下,因而不利于华南降水。在华南4—5月持续干旱年,热带中太平洋的海温正距平可从前一年12月一直持续到当年5月,其影响华南春旱的机制是:由于赤道中太平洋地区海温正距平,导致该区域的异常辐合上升运动,同时通过罗斯贝波的响应在其西侧即西太平洋赤道南、北两侧低空强迫形成气旋性环流异常,在菲律宾东侧的热带西太平洋上空强迫出异常的上升运动,进而使南海北部和华南地区出现异常的下沉运动,导致干旱;在南海及热带西太平洋上空大气低层出现的偏北风异常也使得来源于南海—西太平洋的水汽输送减弱,不利于华南降水。在华南4—5月持续干旱年,4、5月欧亚大陆中高纬度地区也存在一个持续性的西北—东南向的异常环流波列,其对华南干旱的发生也具有显著的影响作用。     

Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang,China

This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity–humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity–humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites’ 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.     

华南冬春季连续性降水异常的成因分析

根据1959 ～2010年华南逐月降水资料、全球月平均高度场、风场和海表温度等资料,采用合成分析的方法,对华南冬春季连续性降水异常的可能原因进行了初步分析.结果表明:华南冬、春降水的影响系统各不相同,冬季偏旱(涝)年东亚大槽较常年偏强(弱),冬季风偏强(弱),西北太平洋海温偏暖(冷);春季偏旱(涝)年孟加拉湾以北的南支槽偏弱(强),东太平洋海温异常偏冷(暖).影响冬、春季降水的系统之间又不是绝对独立的,在一定程度上存在着相互联系,乌拉尔山阻塞高压偏强,哈德莱环流偏强会导致冬春季持续性降水偏少.西北太平洋海温持续偏暖易导致冬春连旱,热带东太平洋海温持续偏暖易导致冬春连涝.     

Detection of trends in precipitation extremes in Zhejiang, east China

Extreme weather exerts a huge impact on human beings and it is of vital importance to study the regular pattern of meteorological and hydrological factors. In this paper, a selection of seven extreme indices is used to analyze the trend of precipitation extremes of 18 meteorological stations located in Zhejiang Province, east China using the Mann–Kendall test. Then the precipitation trends in the plum season (from May to July) and typhoon season (from August to October) are studied separately. The results show that the precipitation trend varies from east to west. There is a positive trend in the east and a negative one in the west. The largest part of Zhejiang Province shows a positive trend in heavy precipitation and the most significant upward trend is detected in Dinghai with 3.4?mm/year for precipitation on very wet days. Although the upward trend of extreme precipitation is not prevailing, the range of increase in specific areas is apparent, like Dinghai with 1.3?mm/year. Precipitation intensity exhibits an upward trend in most areas and a typical upward trend can be found in Dachendao, Tianmushan, and Yuhuan with 0.04, 0.02, and 0.05?mm/year respectively. Precipitation intensity in both plum and typhoon seasons has increased too, especially for the coastal stations.     

Winter precipitation variability and large-scale circulation patterns in Romania

Summary The spatial and temporal variability of winter precipitation and its links to the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns in Romania are examined. The data set is composed of observed rainfall at 30 meteorological stations during the 1961–1996 period. The large-scale field is represented by the observed geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) over the same period, covering the latitudinal belt between 20° N–90° N (resolution 2.5°×2.5°).The Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) is applied to detect inhomogeneities in the data, and the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt non-parametric tests are used in order to identify trends and change points in the winter precipitation time series. The empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) technique is used for data reduction in order to highlight the basic patterns of rainfall variability in Romania. The covariance map between precipitation EOF time series (PCs) and the Z500 field, as well as the correlation coefficients between the PCs and circulation indices are calculated in order to identify the influence of large-scale circulation patterns on winter precipitation in Romania.A significant decreasing trend is identified in winter precipitation with a downward shift in winter 1969/1970, most significant from a statistical point of view in the extra-Carpathian region. This change seems to be real since the SNHT test does not reveal any inhomogeneity during the period tested. Significant relationships are found between winter precipitation variability in Romania and the large-scale circulation pattern, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the blocking phenomenon in the Atlantic-European sector. The positive phase of the NAO and the reduction in blocking activity could be one of the causes of the decrease in winter precipitation in Romania.     

Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal

Precipitation indices are commonly used as climate change indicators. Considering four Climate Variability and Predictability-recommended indices, this study assesses possible changes in their spatial patterns over Portugal under future climatic conditions. Precipitation data from the regional climate model Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling–Climate version of the Local Model (CCLM) ensemble simulations with ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 boundary conditions are used for this purpose. For recent–past, medians and probability density functions of the CCLM-based indices are validated against station-based and gridded observational dataset from ENSEMBLES-based (gridded daily precipitation data provided by the European Climate Assessment & Dataset project) indices. It is demonstrated that the model is able to realistically reproduce not only precipitation but also the corresponding extreme indices. Climate change projections for 2071–2100 (A1B and B1 SRES scenarios) reveal significant decreases in total precipitation, particularly in autumn over northwestern and southern Portugal, though changes exhibit distinct local and seasonal patterns and are typically stronger for A1B than for B1. The increase in winter precipitation over northeastern Portugal in A1B is the most important exception to the overall drying trend. Contributions of extreme precipitation events to total precipitation are also expected to increase, mainly in winter and spring over northeastern Portugal. Strong projected increases in the dry spell lengths in autumn and spring are also noteworthy, giving evidence for an extension of the dry season from summer to spring and autumn. Although no coupling analysis is undertaken, these changes are qualitatively related to modifications in the large-scale circulation over the Euro-Atlantic area, more specifically to shifts in the position of the Azores High and associated changes in the large-scale pressure gradient over the area.     

近50 a华南盛夏降水的季节内差异及大气环流异常特征分析

基于CRU、CMAP、PREC/L、CN05.1、NCEP/NCAR以及全国160个台站的月降水资料,采用经验正交函数(EOF)分解、依赖于季节的经验正交函数(SEOF)分解、滑动平均、空间相关、回归以及合成分析等多元统计方法研究了近50 a华南盛夏降水异常的基本特征及其季节内差异,并讨论了其大气环流异常。结果表明:(1)盛夏7、8月华南降水异常的空间分布都表现为区域一致性,即整个华南地区都为正(负)异常。(2)华南盛夏降水异常在月季变化的时间尺度上存在着同位相和反位相演变,1963—1993年,华南7、8月降水大致为反相演变,即7月华南全区一致偏涝(旱)而8月一致偏旱(涝);1994—2015年,二者总体表现为同相演变,即7月华南全区降水一致偏涝(旱)时8月亦一致偏涝(旱)。(3)大气遥相关型的变化是同相和反相两种演变模态产生的主要原因,同相期间对流层中层7月表现为欧亚遥相关(EU)和东亚太平洋遥相关(EAP)相互配置,8月表现为类似EU和太平洋北美遥相关(PNA)型;反相期间对流层中层7月表现为类似北美东西遥相关(NAEW)型,8月表现为类似EAP型。(4)西太平洋副热带高压的变化与华南盛夏降水季节内差异密切相关。反相期间7月与8月西太平洋副热带高压的差异主要体现在东西位置变化较大,而同相期间变化不大。