中国历史极端干旱研究进展

中国现有抗旱相关法规、规划、标准和制度等均是按常态干旱考虑的,几乎没有考虑大范围、长历时极端干旱的问题。一旦发生类似崇祯大旱和光绪大旱等极端干旱,将对中国经济社会产生深刻影响。从历史旱涝序列重建、极端干旱事件复原和重演3个方面论述了相关研究进展,发现重建方面缺乏重建方法对比研究、重建序列时空分辨率较低等,复原方面缺乏干旱灾害双重属性的考虑等,重演方面缺乏对抗旱减灾能力以及全球气候变化的考虑等。对未来研究重点和实践需求进行了展望,指出需在不同重建方法交叉检验、高时空分辨率旱涝序列重建、基于自然灾害双重属性的历史极端干旱事件复原、历史极端干旱事件定量化重演和干旱巨灾风险应对战略等方面取得突破性进展。     

青藏高原东北侧夏季干旱的气象成因和长期预报研究

本文利用近40年(1950～1988年)的北太平洋月平均海温(SST)场、逐月南方涛动指数(SOI)和北半球100hPa月平均高度场,探讨影响黄土高原夏季干旱的信息区及其在时空上的遥相联系,发现热带地区(尤其是低纬地区)的SST和低层环流系统(如SO)的强弱变化与西北夏季干旱存在较好的遥相关,这种相关反映在前期各信息区内主要存在半年左右的时滞相关。又从能量频散角度讨论黑潮区SST变化与影响西北夏季干旱环流系统(南亚高压)之间的可能联系。结果得出对中国西北夏季干旱的长期预报,除应按常规注意中高纬度大气环流的变异外,还需要重视前期(冬末春初)热带地区SST与南方涛动的变异。     

Modelling the regional effects of climate change on air quality

The life cycle of pollutants is affected by chemical as well as meteorological factors, such as wind, temperature, precipitation, solar radiation. Therefore, climatic changes induced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases may be expected to have significant effects on air quality. Because of the spatial variability of the pollutant emissions and climate-change signals, these effects are particularly relevant at the regional to local scales. This paper first briefly reviews modelling tools and methodologies used to study regional climate-change impacts on air quality. Patterns of regional precipitation, temperature, and sea-level changes emerging from the latest set of general circulation model projections are then discussed. Finally, the specific case of climate-change effects on summer ozone concentrations over Europe is presented to illustrate the potential impacts of climate change on pollutant amounts. It is concluded that climate change is an important factor that needs to be taken into account when designing future pollution-reduction policies.     

An analysis of the drought in Yunnan, China, from a perspective of society drought severity

Drought disaster management entails not only understanding meteorological drought as a natural hazard but also evaluating the adverse societal impacts related to the economy and human lives. For the purpose of quantifying the drought severity from the perspective of society drought, a drought index, namely “Society Drought Severity Index” (SDSI), was put forward to analyze the drought in Yunnan Province of China. In SDSI for Yunnan, the drought severity was represented by the weighted discrepancy between the “appropriate” water needs and the total available water resources, inspired by the established Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Technically, the trend in historical water consumption records in agricultural, industrial, and domestic sectors was applied to represent the appropriate water needs; an apparent “runoff” was used to represent the available water resource in Yunnan. The SDSI of Yunnan revealed a trend toward increasing drought severity, which resulted from a combination of meteorological changes and water needs escalation. Moreover, the spatial center of the 2010 drought in Yunnan based on SDSI was different from that identified by PDSI, which exactly reflected the influence of water needs on drought severity. The SDSI was deemed to be a beneficial tool for drought disaster management and drought risk governance.     

Alleviating drought and water scarcity in the Mediterranean region through managed aquifer recharge

Drought and water scarcity can significantly impair the sustainable development of groundwater resources, a scenario commonly found in aquifers in the Mediterranean region. Water management measures to address these drivers of groundwater depletion are highly relevant, especially considering the increasing severity of droughts under climate change. This study evaluates the potential of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) to offset the adverse effects of drought and water scarcity on groundwater storage. Los Arenales aquifer (central Spain), which was unsustainably exploited for irrigation in the second half of the twentieth century, is employed as a case study. Two neighbouring zones within this aquifer are contrasted, namely, Los Arenales (LA) and Medina del Campo (MC). The primary difference between them in terms of water resources management is the wide-scale implementation of MAR systems in LA since the early 2000s. Several groundwater statistical methods are used. Groundwater-level trend analysis and average piezometric levels show in LA a faster recovery of aquifer storage and less susceptibility to drought compared to MC. On the other hand, standardised precipitation indexes and standardised groundwater level indexes of detrended groundwater-level time series, which do not include the effects of MAR, show that LA can be more negatively affected by drought and groundwater abstraction. The sharper recovery of piezometric levels in LA when considering MAR, and bigger drought impacts observed when the effects of this measure are removed, demonstrate that MAR can effectively alleviate the impacts of water scarcity and drought, providing an adaptation solution to climate change worldwide.

     

Characterization and assessment of the devastating natural hazards across the Canadian Prairie Provinces from 2009 to 2011

From 2009 to 2011, the Canadian Prairies were subjected to exceptionally variable precipitation regimes, ranging between record drought and unprecedented flooding. Adjacent regions concurrently experienced droughts and floods, and individual areas transitioned rapidly from pluvial to drought conditions and vice versa. Such events had major impacts; for example, damages from floods in the Assiniboine River Basin (ARB) have exceeded $1 billion, and forest fires ravaged the town of Slave Lake, Alberta. This study first characterizes, and then assesses, these devastating natural hazards in terms of their physical processes (across multiple spatial and temporal scales) related to both the spatially contrasting precipitation states and rapid temporal transitions between these states. Subtle differences in large-scale atmospheric flow had marked impacts on precipitation. Primary factors controlling the distribution and amount of precipitation included the location and persistence of key surface and upper-air features, as well as their interaction. Additionally, multiple events—rather than individual extremes—were responsible for the flooding over the Saskatchewan River Basin and the ARB. Very heavy rainfall events (≥25 mm d^?1) accounted for up to 55 % of warm season rain at some locations, and the frequency of heavy rainfall events was critical for determining whether a region experienced drought or pluvial conditions. This study has increased our knowledge of the characteristics, impacts and mechanisms of rapidly transitioning disparate precipitation states on the Canadian Prairies and will aid in better understanding both past and projected future hydro-climatic extremes in the region.     

Drought Monitoring Using Data Mining Techniques: A Case Study for Nebraska, USA

Drought has an impact on many aspects of society. To help decision makers reduce the impacts of drought, it is important to improve our understanding of the characteristics and relationships of atmospheric and oceanic parameters that cause drought. In this study, the use of data mining techniques is introduced to find associations between drought and several oceanic and climatic indices that could help users in making knowledgeable decisions about drought responses before the drought actually occurs. Data mining techniques enable users to search for hidden patterns and find association rules for target data sets such as drought episodes. These techniques have been used for commercial applications, medical research, and telecommunications, but not for drought. In this study, two time-series data mining algorithms are used in Nebraska to illustrate the identification of the relationships between oceanic parameters and drought indices. The algorithms provide flexibility in time-series analyses and identify drought episodes separate from normal and wet conditions, and find relationships between drought and oceanic indices in a manner different from the traditional statistical associations. The drought episodes were determined based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Associations were observed between drought episodes and oceanic and atmospheric indices that include the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the Pacific/North American (PNA) index, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Index. The experimental results showed that among these indices, the SOI, MEI, and PDO have relatively stronger relationships with drought episodes over selected stations in Nebraska. Moreover, the study suggests that data mining techniques can help us to monitor drought using oceanic indices as a precursor of drought.     

A comprehensive approach to drought and desertification in Northern Nigeria

Drought has been a recurring feature of the arid and semi-arid areas of Nigeria. This paper reviews the extent, severity, and consequences of drought and desertification in Nigeria with particular emphasis on the northern part of the country. The haphazard manner in which these environmental hazards have been tackled is examined and a systematic approach for the formulation of a national policy is proposed. It is recommended that a detailed formulation and implementation of the proposed policy plan is imperative to mitigate the often devastating impacts of drought and desertification in the very prone areas of Nigeria. Until such is done, some areas of Nigeria will always be vulnerable to the whims of an inevitable climatic hazard of drought and associated land degradation in the form of desertification.     

Evaluating the environmental effects of transportation modes using an integrated methodology and an application

The increasing needs for transportation of freight and passengers causes environmental impacts. Preventing studies for these impacts should be considered by logistics firms and encouraged by the regulations of authorities. An important contribution can be provided by determining the environmental effects of the transportation modes in specific regions and using the most convenient ones. In this study, multiple criteria decision-making techniques, including human judgments, tangible and intangible criteria and priorities are used. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation, as two of the multi criteria decision-making methodologies, are integrated for ranking the transportation modes in terms of the environmental effects of them. The proposed decision-making process is applied to chose the environmentally convenient transportation mode with respect to the determined evaluation criteria in Marmara Region of Turkey. The results indicate that, the main problem for the Marmara Region about transportation aspects is to pass from the intensive utilization of the road transportation mode to another one. In this study it is seen that the most convenient transformation mode in Marmara Region is the sea transportation mode.     

Natural hazard impacts in small island developing states: A review of current knowledge and future research needs

Small island developing states (or SIDS) are exposed to a large number of natural hazards and many characteristics of small island developing states make them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. In spite of this acknowledged vulnerability, there are relatively few studies which focus on the impacts of natural hazards in these countries. This paper presents a review of our current state of knowledge of impacts in small island developing states and highlights a number of research needs. Central to these is the need to integrate natural hazards research within a sustainable development context and the need to exploit existing procedures such as government coordinated disaster impact assessments to generate a detailed understanding of natural hazards impacts.     

Impacts of Human Water Use on the Large-scale Terrestrial Water Cycle

Along with the increase of population and extraordinary economic and social development, human appropriation of freshwater supply increases rapidly. Anthropogenic activities have become an important driving factor of the large-scale terrestrial water cycle. The hydrological effects of human water use have attracted growing attention. In this paper, we briefly reviewed the recent studies addressing the anthropogenic disturbance of the large-scale terrestrial water cycle. The review focused on the direct alteration of the water cycle for human needs, with special coverage for the primary aspects of human water use such as irrigation, domestic and industrial water use, reservoir regulation and groundwater mining. The state-of-the-art parameterization schemes of human water use for macroscale land surface hydrological modeling were introduced and the limitations of the schemes were discussed. Considering the impacts of human water use on the terrestrial water cycle is currently a challenge for macroscale land surface hydrological modeling, which hinders the use of the models in assessing water resources under changing environment. Further studies are needed to understand the interactions between human and water systems, to develop integrated assessment model of coupled human-water systems, and to assess regional and global water security.     

Drought risk assessment using remote sensing and GIS techniques

Beginning with a discussion of drought definitions, this review paper attempts to provide a review of fundamental concepts of drought, classification of droughts, drought indices, and the role of remote sensing and geographic information systems for drought evaluation. Owing to the rise in water demand and looming climate change, recent years have witnessed much focus on global drought scenarios. As a natural hazard, drought is best characterized by multiple climatological and hydrological parameters. An understanding of the relationships between these two sets of parameters is necessary to develop measures for mitigating the impacts of droughts. Droughts are recognized as an environmental disaster and have attracted the attention of environmentalists, ecologists, hydrologists, meteorologists, geologists, and agricultural scientists. Temperatures; high winds; low relative humidity; and timing and characteristics of rains, including distribution of rainy days during crop growing seasons, intensity, and duration of rain, and onset and termination, play a significant role in the occurrence of droughts. In contrast to aridity, which is a permanent feature of climate and is restricted to low rainfall areas, a drought is a temporary aberration. Often, there is confusion between a heat wave and a drought, and the distinction is emphasized between heat wave and drought, noting that a typical time scale associated with a heat wave is on the order of a week, while a drought may persist for months or even years. The combination of a heat wave and a drought has dire socio-economic consequences. Drought risk is a product of a region’s exposure to the natural hazard and its vulnerability to extended periods of water shortage. If nations and regions are to make progress in reducing the serious consequences of drought, they must improve their understanding of the hazard and the factors that influence vulnerability. It is critical for drought-prone regions to better understand their drought climatology (i.e., the probability of drought at different levels of intensity and duration) and establish comprehensive and integrated drought information system that incorporates climate, soil, and water supply factors such as precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, snow pack, reservoir and lake levels, ground water levels, and stream flow. All drought-prone nations should develop national drought policies and preparedness plans that place emphasis on risk management rather than following the traditional approach of crisis management, where the emphasis is on reactive, emergency response measures. Crisis management decreases self-reliance and increases dependence on government and donors.     

电磁法在新疆干旱区找水效果及适应性探讨

运用加拿大PHOENIX公司V5系统MT大地电磁法、美国GEOMETRICS公司EH-4系统电导率成像法、加拿大PHOENIX公司V5(2000)系统CSAMT可控源音频磁大地电流法、V5(2000)系统TDEM瞬变电磁法及法国IRIS公司NUMIS系统NMR核磁共振法，住新疆典型干旱水类型已知条件区开展找水试验研究工作，探讨新疆典型干旱水类型区几种先进的电磁法及其有效性、适应性，对今后在新疆干旱区开展电磁法找水工作提供参考．     

中国北方地区几种农业气象灾害指标研究综述

针对我国北方地区常见的几种农业气象灾害:干旱、低温冷害、霜冻和干热风,对其各类指标进行了归纳和描述。干旱指标是从监测、防御、经济损失评估、社会经济发展水平和科技进步5个方面来分别描述;冷害指标就目前常见的几类进行了简要介绍;霜冻指标多针对不同作物给出具体判别标准;干热风指标从气象、判别、危害和防御4个方面进行了描述。总结了不同指标的优缺点,同时也对这些灾害指标目前存在的问题和今后改进的方向提出了看法,为形成北方地区农业气象灾害指标体系奠定基础,同时为今后该地区各类农业气象灾害的监测、评估及防灾减灾工作提供参考与支撑。     

News coverage of drought impacts and vulnerability in the US Carolinas, 1998–2007

Regional newspaper coverage from 1998 to 2007 is examined to expand our understanding of the complexity of drought impacts and vulnerability in the Carolinas. Coverage at the height of two droughts reports drought effects extending beyond first-order impacts on broadly recognized sectors, such as agriculture, livestock, and water supplies to recreation and tourism and impacts on businesses, manufacturing, and households. Impacts were accompanied by social controversies with near-term and long-term planning and development implications. Key concepts in vulnerability analysis were used to structure the review of vulnerability reporting. The coverage of differential vulnerability, although limited, identified individual, household, local, and cross-scale factors that influenced the severity of impacts. Articles also highlighted additional interacting stresses in some sectors contributing to the severity of impacts experienced. An elaborated understanding of drought impacts and vulnerabilities is a necessary, early step in advancing efforts to developing a risk-based drought management approach.     

First- and second-order adaptation to natural hazards and extreme events in the context of climate change

This paper deals with coping and adaptation processes to natural hazards and (potential) climate change impacts. Selected response measures to natural hazards are critically reviewed with respect to the actual and potential consequences that these measures might imply for additional adaptation needs and changes within social-ecological systems. In this context, the author introduces the concept of first- and second-order adaptation processes in order to underline the cascade process that adaptation implies, the potentials for failure, and the limits of adaptation. Important aspects of first- and second-order adaptation processes as well as the issue of the limits of adaptation are illustrated based on observations and empirical work conducted in Vietnam. In its final part, the paper discusses the findings in light of selected theoretical approaches that might help to understand how stabilization and destabilization processes are influenced or even triggered by adaptation measures.     

Heat Wave Hazards: An Overview of Heat Wave Impacts in Canada

Extreme heat events are natural hazards affecting Canada and many other regions of the world. This paper presents an overview of the issues involved in defining heat waves and harmful hot weather events, followed by a spatial and historical overview of heat waves across Canada, and an assessment of heat wave adaptation potential in selected cities. The Prairies, Southern Ontario, and areas in the St. Lawrence River Valley of both Ontario and Quebec demonstrate the highest temperatures and most frequent occurrences of heat waves, with minimal effects in the North, Pacific Coast, and Maritimes. Montreal frequently experiences extreme heat, and based on its low air conditioning rates and older, high-density housing, it demonstrates limited potential for adaptation to heat events. A scientific assessment was done to identify the effects of heat waves on various sectors of Canadian life including agriculture, livestock, fisheries, construction, transportation, utilities, the environment, and human health. Heat stress has been linked to excess human mortality and illness, violent behaviour, drought, forest fires, tornadoes, decreased agricultural and livestock productivity, construction and transportation difficulties, and reduced electrical power supply. Despite limited research on heat waves in Canada, this study demonstrates that the impacts of heat are profound and far-reaching.     

干旱监测与评价技术的发展及其科学挑战

由于气候变暖及人类活动加剧,干旱灾害对全球粮食、水资源和生态安全及人类可持续发展的威胁日益突出,对干旱决策服务和应急管理能力提出了严峻挑战,干旱监测预警、影响评估及应急管理等方面的技术水平亟待进一步提高.在系统总结以往研究成果基础上,阐述了对干旱气候、干旱和干旱灾害的科学认识,归纳了干旱气候、干旱和干旱灾害的成因及其主...     

洪水影响的综述

洪水影响涉及到自然和社会系统的诸多方面.本文将洪水影响纳入洪水环境系统进行统一考虑,综述了洪水对自然生态、社会经济及国家政策的可能影响,提出了对特定洪水事件应通过多学科的合作,探求技术、经济和环境综合效应,为洪水灾害的防治提供科学依据.     

气候与土地利用变化对水文水资源的影响研究

水资源短缺和水患灾害已成为全球关心的重大问题。气候与土地利用变化对流域水资源和旱涝的影响以及由此产生的社会经济后果已引起人类社会的广泛关注。深入综合地开展这方面的研究对国民经济建设和可持续发展规划决策有重要的意义。通过分析总结已进行的有关研究工作 ,对该领域的研究进展作了简要回顾 ,讨论了现有工作的不足和今后的研究内容和方法。