中国二氧化碳排放数据比较分析

将世界主要相关研究机构和数据库（IEA、BP、EDGAR/PBL/JRC、CDIAC、EIA和CAIT）发布的中国二氧化碳排放数据与中国官方数据和估算进行比较,认为数据之间的差异来源于计算范围、方法和基础数据的不同,其中能源消费数据的差异是造成一些数据库估计值偏高的重要原因。研究认为IEA和CAIT数据与中国官方数据具有较好的可比性。建议中国加强煤炭统计工作,提高官方数据公布频率并提高清单完整性。     

上海城市二氧化碳排放空间特征

构建上海1 km CO₂排放网格,分析市域（UB1）、市辖区（UB2）、建成区（UB3）和城区（UB4）4个城市范围的CO₂排放特征。上海市域CO2排放空间格局是以中心城区为核心,排放水平向外递减,形成了3个梯度。空间自相关分析表明,排放在空间上存在显著的集聚效应,部分地区高强度的经济活动和能源活动对周边区域的排放有显著影响。UB4是上海城市的最佳表征,2007年UB4内CO₂排放达到1.89亿t,人均排放12.04 t;UB4排放占UB1排放的75.40%,UB1人均排放比UB4人均排放高12%。上海城市化和工业化在空间上的高度重合,导致高排放源集聚于UB4内,形成UB4的高排放特征。个别网格的排放量已经占到区域或者城市总排放量的10%～20%;前10高和前100高排放网格,其累积排放总量分别占据了3个城市范围（UB1、UB3和UB4）总排放量的60%和80%以上。     

卫星高光谱大气CO2遥感反演精度地基验证研究

利用TCCON网站提供的北半球7个地面观测站CO₂干空气混合比（XCO₂）数据,对3种卫星反演的XCO₂产品进行了验证,包括SCIAMACHY产品、NIES-GOSAT产品和ACOS-GOSAT产品。结果表明：卫星CO₂遥感反演产品与地基遥感资料具有较一致的季节性周期变化,一年中月平均浓度最高值均出现在4月和5月,最低值均出现在8月和9月;相对于地面观测,3种卫星产品均低估了XCO₂;ACOS-GOSAT产品与NIES-GOSAT产品的精度大体相当,误差标准差分别为2.26×10^-6和2.27×10^-6;SCIAMACHY产品的精度略差,误差标准差为2.91×10^-6。     

Impacts of Future NOx and CO Emissions on Regional Chemistry and Climate over Eastern China

A coupled chemical/dynamical model (SOCOL-SOlar Climate Ozone Links) is applied to study the impacts of future enhanced CO and NOx emissions over eastern China on regional chemistry and climate. The result shows that the increase of CO and NOx emissions has significant effects on regional chemistry, including NOx, CO, O₃, and OH concentrations. During winter, the CO concentration is uniformly increased in the northern hemisphere by about 10 ppbv. During summer, the increase of CO has a regional distribution. The change in O₃, concentrations near eastern China has both strong seasonal and spatial variations. During winter, the surface O₃, concentrations decrease by about 2 ppbv, while during summer they increase by about 2 ppbv in eastern China. The changes of CO, NOx, and O₃, induce important impacts on OH concentrations. The changes in chemistry, especially O₃, induce important effects on regional climate. The analysis suggests that during winter, the surface temperature decreases and air pressure increases in central-eastern China. The changes of temperature and pressure produce decreases in vertical velocity. We should mention that the model resolution is coarse, and the calculated concentrations are generally underestimated when they are compared to measured results. However, because this model is a coupled dynamical/chemical model, it can provide some useful insights regarding the climate impacts due to changes in air pollutant emissions.     

Verifying Fossil-Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions Forecasted by an Artificial Neural Network with the GEOS-Chem Model

In this study, the authors developed an en- semble of Elman neural networks to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of fossil-fuel emissions （ff） in 2009. The authors built and trained 29 Elman neural net- works based on the monthly average grid emission data （1979-2008） from different geographical regions. A three-dimensional global chemical transport model, God- dard Earth Observing System （GEOS）-Chem, was applied to verify the effectiveness of the networks. The results showed that the networks captured the annual increasing trend and interannual variation of ff well. The difference between the simulations with the original and predicted ff ranged from -1 ppmv to 1 ppmv globally. Meanwhile, the authors evaluated the observed and simulated north-south gradient of the atmospheric CO2 concentrations near the surface. The two simulated gradients appeared to have a similar changing pattern to the observations, with a slightly higher background CO2 concentration, - 1 ppmv. The results indicate that the Elman neural network is a useful tool for better understanding the spatial and tem- poral distribution of the atmospheric C02 concentration and ft.     

Changes in Seasonal Cycle and Extremes in China during the Period 1960–2008

Recent trends in seasonal cycles in China are analyzed, based on a homogenized dataset of daily temperatures at 541 stations during the period 1960–2008. Several indices are defined for describing the key features of a seasonal cycle, including local winter/summer (LW/LS) periods and local spring/autumn phase (LSP/LAP). The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is applied to determine the indices for each year. The LW period was found to have shortened by 2–6 d (10 yr)-1, mainly due to an earlier end to winter conditions, with the LW mean temperature having increased by 0.2°C–0.4°C (10 yr)?1, over almost all of China. Records of the most severe climate extremes changed less than more typical winter conditions did. The LS period was found to have lengthened by 2–4 d (10 yr)?1, due to progressively earlier onsets and delayed end dates of the locally defined hot period. The LS mean temperature increased by 0.1°C–0.2°C (10 yr)-1 in most of China, except for a region in southern China centered on the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In contrast to the winter cases, the warming trend in summer was more prominent in the most extreme records than in those of more typical summer conditions. The LSP was found to have advanced significantly by about 2 d (10 yr)-1 in most of China. Changes in the autumn phase were less prominent. Relatively rapid changes happened in the 1980s for most of the regional mean indices dealing with winter and in the 1990s for those dealing with summer.     

Influence of HITRAN Database Updates on Retrievals of Atmospheric CO2 from Near-Infrared Spectra

The line-transition parameters of the High Resolution Transmission (HITRAN) 2008 database have been updated relative to previous editions. The transmission spectra and sensitivity to changes in CO2 concentrations using line parameters from the HITRAN 2004 and HITRAN 2008 databases are compared to evaluate the effect of the database updates on retrievals of carbon dioxide vertical columns from nearinfrared reflected sunlight. This comparison is done in three spectral regions covering the 2.06-, 1.61-, and 1.58-μm CO2bands used by the Greenhouse Gases Observatory Satellite (GOSAT) instrument and the planned successor to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO). The updates to the HITRAN database have the largest effects on the transmittance and the off-line to on-line transmittance ratio in the 2.06-μm region and the smallest effects on these parameters in the 1.58-μm region. The influence of the updates to the HITRAN database on the off-line to on-line ratio calculation in the narrow spectral region 4855-4880 cm-1 could be equivalent to a change in CO2 of more than 50 ppmv. Use of the HITRAN 2004 database will lead to an underestimate of the column CO2abundance in the 2.06- and 1.61-μm spectral regions, whereas it will lead to an overestimate of the column CO2abundance in the 1.58-μm spectral region.     

Influences of Climate Change on the Uptake and Storage of Anthropogenic CO2 in the Global Ocean

A global ocean general circulation model, called LASG/IAP Climate system ocean model (LICOM), is employed to study the influence of climate change on the uptake and storage of anthropogenic CO 2 in the global ocean. Two simulations were made: the control run (RUN1) with the climatological daily mean forcing data, and the climate change run (RUN2) with the interannually varying daily mean forcing data from the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) of the US. The results show that the simulated distributions and storages of anthropogenic dissolved inorganic carbon (anDIC) from both runs are consistent with the data-based results. Compared with the data-based results, the simulations generate higher anDIC concentrations in the upper layer and lower storage amount of anDIC between the subsurface and 1000-m depth, especially in RUN1. A comparison of the two runs shows that the interannually varying forcing can enhance the transport of main water masses, so the rate of interior transport of anDIC is increased. The higher transfer rate of anDIC in RUN2 decreases its high concentration in the upper layer and increases its storage amount below the subsurface, which leads to closer distributions of anDIC in RUN2 to the data-based results than in RUN1. The higher transfer rate in RUN2 also induces larger exchange flux than in RUN1. It is estimated that the global oceanic anthropogenic CO 2 uptake was 1.83 and 2.16 Pg C yr 1 in the two runs in 1995, respectively, and as of 1994, the global ocean contained 99 Pg C in RUN1 and 107 Pg C in RUN2 of anDIC, indicating that the model under the interannually varying forcing could take up 8.1% more anthropogenic carbon than the model under the climatological forcing. These values are within the range of other estimates based on observation and model simulation, while the estimates in RUN1 are near the low bound of other works. It is estimated that the variability of root mean square of the global air-sea anthropogenic carbon flux from the simulated monthly mean results of RUN2 with its seasonal cycle and long-term trend removed is 0.1 Pg C yr 1 . The most distinct anomalies appear to be in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the Southern Ocean.     

Seasonal Prediction of the Global Precipitation Annual Modes with the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG

A right annual cycle is of critical importance for a model to improve its seasonal prediction skill. This work assesses the performance of the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG （GAMIL） in retrospective prediction of the global precipitation annual modes for the 1980 2004 period. The annual modes are gauged by a three-parameter metrics： the long-term annual mean and two major modes of annual cycle （AC）, namely, a solstitial mode and an equinoctial asymmetric mode. The results demonstrate that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction is basically able to capture the major patterns of the long-term annual mean as well as the first AC mode （the solstitial monsoon mode）. The GAMIL has deficiencies in reproducing the second AC mode （the equinoctial asymmetric mode）. The magnitude of the GAMIL prediction tends to be greater than the observed precipitation, especially in the sea areas including the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal （BOB）, and the western North Pacific （WNP）. These biases may be due to underestimation of the convective activity predicted in the tropics, especially over the western Pacific warm pool （WPWP） and its neighboring areas. It is suggested that a more accurate parameterization of convection in the tropics, especially in the Maritime Continent, the WPWP and its neighboring areas, may be critical for reproducing the more realistic annual modes, since the enhancement of convective activity over the WPWP and its vicinity can induce suppressed convection over the WNP, the BOB, and the South Indian Ocean where the GAMIL produces falsely vigorous convections. More efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in monsoon seasons but also in transitional seasons when the second AC mode takes place. Selection of the one-tier or coupled atmosphere-ocean system may also reduce the systematic error of the GAMIL prediction. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL seasonal prediction skill.     

Numerical Simulation of CO2 Doubling Impacts on Regional Climate in Northwest China

A numerical study on CO2 doubling effects upon temperature and precipitation in NW China is conducted using an improved regional climate model, with the modeling data from a global climate model (Australian CSIRO R21L9) as the background. Results suggest that the doubling would lead to the rise of surface temperature in the project region, with the maximum occurring in southern Xinjiang Basin and eastern Qilian Mountains in contrast to a relatively smaller increase in northern Xinjiang and southern Shaanxi Provinces. On a seasonal basis the winter temperature warming is most pronounced while the autumn shows a relatively less signi cant rising trend. The study region experiences the greatest warming compared with other parts of the country. With CO2 content doubling, rainfall change varies from place to place in this region, with rainfall increase in the west, particularly in northern Xinjiang, in the vicinity of the Tianshan area, southwestern Qinghai, and Hexi area (west of the Yellow River of Gansu), as opposed to the eastern portion of NW China, where precipitation decreases. If CO2 concentration is doubled, most of the study region would receive more rainfall in spring, implying that spring drought would be alleviated while its eastern part would see varying-degree decreased precipitation in the other three seasons, especially in summer, suggesting that drought there would be intensified in summer and autumn, thereby exerting major influence on rain-fed agriculture there.     

动态植被模型模拟的植被季节变化及其评估

利用MODIS卫星观测资料,对一个考虑了生态系统碳氮循环过程的动态植被模型ICM的模拟性能进行了评估.重点对反映植被动力学的关键参数--叶面积指数(LAI)的模拟结果与观测进行了对比分析,评估了ICM对LAI季节变化特征的模拟能力.结果表明,ICM基本能够模拟出植被的季节变化特征.总体而言,模拟值在低纬度和高纬度地区大...     

北京大气甲烷季变化及发展趋势

近年来北京大气中CH4含量仍在上升,但平均增长率已从1985～1989年的1.76%.a-1,下降到1990～1997年的0.50%.a-1;冬季和夏季两次出现峰值,表现出明显的双峰模态季节变化。但北京大气CH4变化的最大特点是年际季变化不均一,12年中,北京大气CH4共计增长185×10-9混和体积比,其中冬季增长的贡献为69×10-9混和体积比,约占总增长的37%;而夏季的增长贡献不足40×10-9混和体积比,约占总增长的21%。90年代以后,北京大气CH4增长率进一步减慢,主要原因是生物源排放不再增加,而非生物源排放量的增长是大气CH4继续增长的主要原因。     

基于模式分析一次沙尘暴过程中沙尘表面非均相化学过程对中国地区污染物浓度的影响

利用戈达德对地观测系统（GEOS）提供的再分析气象场GEOS-5驱动的GEOS-Chem模式,模拟中国地区2009年4月22~29日沙尘暴期间沙尘气溶胶表面非均相化学过程对我国污染物的影响。模拟结果表明,沙尘暴期间,全国平均沙尘硝酸盐和沙尘硫酸盐浓度分别为0.2 μg m-3和0.4 μg m-3,占总硝酸盐（非沙尘硝酸盐与沙尘硝酸盐之和）和总硫酸盐（非沙尘硫酸盐与沙尘硫酸盐之和）的24%和10%。我国西部地区沙尘硝酸盐占比（ > 80%）要大于其他地区,而西部地区的沙尘硫酸盐占比则要小于下游地区。考虑非均相化学反应后,沙尘暴期间,全国平均的二氧化硫（SO₂）、硝酸（HNO₃）、臭氧（O₃）、非沙尘硫酸盐、总硫酸盐、非沙尘硝酸盐、总硝酸盐、NH₃、总铵盐浓度变化量分别为-7%、-15%、-2%、-8%、3%、-2%、14%、21%、-5%。     

CO2地下埋存分布状况及环境影响的监测

 CO₂的地质埋存处理是减缓温室效应的现实选择之一。要保证埋存的有效性、安全性和持久性,需要对钻井（主要包括注入井和废弃井）、CO₂地下分布运移状况以及因CO₂渗漏所造成的环境影响等方面实施严格的监测管理。通过对以上各方面文献的查阅和综合分析,系统阐述了世界范围内目前CO₂地质埋存过程中所采用的各项主要监测技术。     

Changes in Seasonality in China under Enhanced Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

Seasonality changes in China under elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations were simulated using nine global climate models,assuming a 1% per year increase in atmospheric CO 2.Simulations of 20th century experiments of season changes in China from the periods 1961 80 to 1981 2000 were also assessed using the same models.The results show that the ensemble mean simulation of the nine models performs better than that of an individual model simulation.Compared the mean climatology of the last 20 years in the CO 2-quadrupling experiments with that in the CO 2-doubling ones,the ensemble mean results show that the hottest/coldest continuous-90-day (local summer/winter) mean temperature increased by 3.4/4.5°C,2.7/2.9°C,and 2.9/4.1°C in Northeast (NE),Southwest (SW),and Southeast (SE) China,respectively,indicating a weakening seasonal amplitude (SA),but by 4.4/4.0°C in Northwest (NW) China,indicating an enlarging SA.The local summer lengthened by 37/30/66/54 days in NW,NE,SW,and SE China,respectively.In some models,the winter disappeared during the CO 2-quadrupling period,judging by the threshold based on the CO 2-doubling period.The average of the other model simulations show that the local winter shortened by 42/36/61/44 days respectively,in the previously mentioned regions.     

Impacts of High-Frequency Atmospheric Forcing on Southern Ocean Circulation and Antarctic Sea Ice

The relative contributions of atmospheric fluctuations on 6 h?2 d,2?8 d,and 8 d?1 month time scales to the changes in the air?sea fluxes,the SO circulation,and Antarctic sea ice are investigated.It was found that the imposed forcing variability on the three time scales creates a significant increase in wind power input,and hence an increase of about 50%,97%,and 5%of eddy kinetic energy relative to the simulation driven by monthly forcing,respectively.Also,SO circulation and the strength of the upper cell of meridional overturning circulation become strengthened.These results indicate more dominant effects of atmospheric variability on the 2?8 d time scale on the SO circulation.Meanwhile,the 6 h?2 d(2?8 d)atmospheric variability causes an increase in the total sea-ice extent,area,and volume,by about 33%,30%,and 19%(17%,20%,and 25%),respectively,relative to those in the experiment forced by monthly atmospheric variables.Such significant sea-ice increases are caused by a cooler ocean surface and stronger sea-ice transports owing to the enhanced heat losses and air-ice stresses induced by the atmospheric variability at 6 h?2 d and 2?8 d,while the effects of the variability at 8 d?1 month are rather weak.The influences of atmospheric variability found here mainly result from wind fluctuations.Our findings in this study indicate the importance of properly resolving high-frequency atmospheric variability in modeling studies.     

Seasonal Variation of Dimethylsulfoxide in Rainwater at Amsterdam Island in the Southern Indian Ocean: Implications on the Biogenic Sulfur Cycle

A continuous record of dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) in rainwater was performed at Amsterdam island (37°S 77°E) from December 1995 to February 1997. Eighty one rainwater samples were collected. DMSO, methanesulfonic acid (MSA), the major anions, and cations were analyzed. DMSO concentrations ranged from 7.0 to 369 nM, with a distinct seasonal variation. The mean concentrations during the summer and the winter periods were 90 nM and 25.6 nM respectively. The observed DMSO seasonal cycle is in line with the observations of DMS in the atmosphere and MSA in rainwater, measured simultaneously during the reported period. However, the summer to winter ratio of DMSO is significantly lower than that observed for DMS and MSA. The DMSO to MSA ratio and its observed seasonal variability are also presented. The implications on the biogenic sulfur cycle are discussed.     

1971-2005年中国CO2排放影响因素分析

 利用Kaya恒等式结合宏观经济背景的变迁,对1971-2005年期间影响中国CO2排放量的因子展开分析。结果表明：经济的快速发展和人口的增长是CO2排放增加的主要驱动因素;能源强度的改善和能源结构的低碳化不仅是减少CO2排放的重要选择,也对中国实现"十一五"期间单位GDP能耗降低20%的目标具有重要的现实意义。     

1971-2005年中国CO2排放影响因素分析

利用Kaya恒等式结合宏观经济背景的变迁,对1971-2005年期间影响中国CO2排放量的因子展开分析。结果表明：经济的快速发展和人口的增长是CO2排放增加的主要驱动因素;能源强度的改善和能源结构的低碳化不仅是减少CO2排放的重要选择,也对中国实现"十一五"期间单位GDP能耗降低20%的目标具有重要的现实意义。     

中国省域电力部门CO2排放计算方法研究

提出一种基于各省电力消费详细来源的消费端排放计算方法,该方法使用不同来源电力的特征化排放因子估算调入电力隐含排放。对2005年和2010年各省电力部门CO₂排放量进行估算,并与生产端方法估算结果进行对比分析。结果表明：使用消费端方法计算后电力净调出省排放量下降,2010年内蒙古两种方法计算结果差值高达1.09亿t,该差值相当于陕西发电排放或加拿大发电和供热总排放;相反,使用消费端方法计算后电力净调入省排放量上升,2010年河北排放量上升0.74亿t,北京上升0.60亿t,北京两种方法计算结果相差幅度高达320%。