Comparison and analysis of agricultural and forest land changes in typical agricultural regions of northern mid-latitudes

The northeastern China, the United States, and the western Europe are important agricultural regions both on the global and regional scales. The western Europe has a longer history of agricultural land development than the eastern United States. These two regions have changed from the deforestation and reclamation phase in the past to the current land abandonment and reforestation phase. Compared with the two regions, large-scale land exploitation has only been practiced in the northeastern China during the last century. After a short high-intensity deforestation and reclamation period, agricultural and forest lands are basically in a dynamic steady state. By comparing domestic and international agro-forestry development and considering the ecological environment and socio-economic benefits that can be derived from agro-forestry, this paper suggests that large area of reforestation would be inevitable in future though persistent and large agricultural demand in coming decades even more. And local reforestation at slope farmland with ecological vulnerability should be imperative at present to avoid severer damage. At the same time, from the perspective of Land Change Science, the results demonstrate that the research on land use change in the agro-forestry ecotone is typical and critical, particularly those dealing with the analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics and the simulation of climate, hydrology, and other environmental effects.     

Socio-economic drivers of deforestation in Roghani Valley,Hindu-Raj Mountains,Northern Pakistan

Deforestation and associated ecological disturbances are the issues of global concern.Researchers have investigated a number of driving forces which accelerate the rate of deforestation at local and regional levels.These include poverty,population growth,market demand and prices,political instability,agricultural expansion and changes in property right and ownership regimes.This paper seeks to explore the impacts of population growth,changing tenure system and other socioeconomic factors on the forest cover of Roghani Valley,located in Hindu Raj Mountains,Northern Pakistan.The present study is mainly based on information collected through participatory observation,selfadministered interviews and questionnaire survey.Geographical Information System（GIS） database is also used for mapping and quantification.The results reveal that in the past three to four decades the study area has been subjected to severe deforestation and about half of the forest area has been converted into barren land.Thus,the area under natural forests decreased from 2099 to 1444 hectares in four decades.This large-scale deforestation is attributed to both proximate and under lying causes particularly traditional land tenure system and demographic development.Consequently,forest resources have been degraded and a number of plant species have disappeared from the forests of the study area while several others are in the process of disappearance.     

THE POSSIBILITIES AND REALITIES ON THE REMANAGEMENT OF DESERTIFIED LANDS IN THE TRANSITIONAL ZONE BETWEEN THE DRY-FARMING AREA AND THE GRAZING AREA IN NORTH CHINA

The desertification process is rapidly developing at present and 61.5% of the land area in the zone are already desertified.Among the desertified lands, 26.9% are seriously desertified, 25% most seriously desertified and 47.4% are the lands where desertification is under way. They are caused by over-reclamation for farming, over-grazing, unreasonable collection of firewood,the destruction of vegetation and the misuse of water resources. Under the ecological environment in semi-arid zone,the degraded environment process possesses the ability of restoring to its original status as soon as the interruption of excessive human activities are eliminated. The fencing- and-self-cultivating method is an effective measure adopted universally in semi-arid zone to cure the desertified lands.The desertified lands can be readjusted and controlled easily if other controlling measures are supplemented. The fundamental ways to control desertification are to utilize rationally the resources, to readjust the existing land     

Population growth and sustainability of common property resource management systems in the eastern Hindu Kush: The use of communal fodder resources in Mehlp Valley, North Pakistan

In common property studies, increasing number of users has been considered as a major threat for the long-term sustainability of natural resources. This perception has been true in a few cases. However, the 40-years empirical research conducted in a variety of environmental settings, reveals that population pressure is not the only factor responsible for the degradation of natural resources. In remote areas, where the local inhabitants highly depend on available natural resources for subsistence livelihood, the economically important resources are kept under different ownership regimes. The local inhabitants have established autochthonous institutions, and formulated rules and regulations for proper management of these resources. In this paper an attempt has been made to explore the response of a small fodder user community to the increasing population. For this purpose a micro-level study has been conducted in a remote mountain environment in the eastern Hindu Kush. For this research, data has been collected through fieldwork and focus group discussion. The results of this study reveal that fodder user communities have responded very well to the problem of population pressure. To maintain equity and long-term sustainability they have adopted a number of strategies including changing the ownership, and a resource kept under private ownership at the time of low population has been changed to a common property with increase in population. Based on this study it can be concluded that in mountainous areas and fragile environment the local inhabitant have both the capacity and capability to change their behaviour with regard to changing resource productivity as well as increasing number of users, and this situation does not always lead to the tragedy of commons.     

标准农田规划空间决策支持模型的研究与实现

在中国工业化与城市化进程加速的背景下,部分地区耕地的质与量难以得到保障,因此迫切需要在平衡粮食安全与经济社会增长的基础上对其做出科学规划,而空间决策支持模型的建立有助于该规划的编制。基于对标准农田规划过程的分析,将模型的概念框架分解为以下三个步骤:①构建标准农田资源评价模型:利用群体层次分析法和土地适应性评价模型评估标准农田资源;②构建标准农田规划备选方案生成模型:采用0￣1整数规划模型生成若干标准农田规划备选方案;③构建标准农田最优规划方案决策模型,采用非确定型决策模型辅助评价选取最优规划方案。文章对概念模型的规范化过程进行详细探讨,最后以浙江省桐庐县石阜镇为实验区,对模型进行实现和初步验证。     

青藏高原城乡建设用地和生态用地转移时空格局

青藏高原作为中国重要的生态环境保护地,城镇化和生态环境的变化受到广泛关注。本文基于1990-2015年土地利用数据,进行生态用地和城乡建设用地之间的转移分析,通过核密度以及标准差椭圆分析进行空间转移强度的定性研究。结果表明：① 1990-2015年青藏高原生态用地显著地向城乡建设用地转移,是城乡建设用地向生态用地转移量的54.6倍,其中2000-2005年和2010-2015年是用地转移的热点时期;② 城乡建设用地与生态用地之间的转换在空间上呈现逆向状态,生态用地向城乡建设用地的转移分布逐渐从青藏高原的周边区域向腹地蔓延;城乡建设用地向生态用地的转移最初出现在青藏高原的腹地,逐渐向外围扩张;③ 生态服务功能越大的生态用地,越容易被人类占用,随之发生用地类型的转移,侵占后的土地很难反向转移为具有高生态服务功能的生态用地。     

顾及土地生态安全的环鄱阳湖城市群土地利用情景模拟

在国家大力推进新型城镇化和落实城市群空间规划的背景下,评价城市群土地生态安全水平,并以此为限制条件预测城市群未来土地利用格局,对城市群可持续发展具有重要意义。本文以环鄱阳湖城市群为研究对象,对城市群土地生态安全格局和变化进行分析,根据土地生态安全评价结果设置自然发展情景和生态保护情景,结合多分类Logistic回归和多标准评价方法(MCE),构建CA-Markov模型,预测2种情景下2030年土地利用格局并进行对比分析。研究结果表明:①2005、2010和2015年,环鄱阳湖城市群网格平均生态安全值分别为0.574、0.573和0.571,空间布局上呈现"中部低、东西高"的特征;②预测2030年,自然发展情景下新增城镇用地主要位于九江市、上饶市和南昌市,生态保护情景下限制城镇用地和其他建设用地向土地生态安全高值区扩展,使得城镇用地和其他建设用地扩展更加集中;③预测生态保护情景下,高生态安全区面积比自然发展情景下多39.39%且分布更加均匀,包括鄱阳湖周边区域、九江市中部以及新余市和吉安市,城市群生态安全得到有效保护。该研究可为环鄱阳湖城市群土地利用规划及生态保护提供参考。     

基于多目标遗传算法和FLUS模型的西北农牧交错带土地利用优化配置

西北农牧交错带生态环境脆弱,区位特殊性和生态重要性使其在我国社会经济发展和生态环境保护方面具有重要战略意义。通过对该区域进行土地利用优化配置,使有限的土地资源支撑起生态环境保护和经济发展的重任是本文的出发点。多目标遗传算法和FLUS模型的应用可以从多方面（数量结构、空间布局、综合效益）完善土地利用优化配置,为土地利用优化配置提供更多的选择方案。本文选用多目标遗传算法和FLUS模型对该区域进行2025年的土地利用变化模拟,通过设置自然发展、生态保护优先、经济发展优先、生态-经济均衡4种情景,探讨了如何在兼顾生态环境保护与社会经济发展的情况下进行土地利用的优化配置。结果表明,基于生态-经济均衡情景下的优化方案,土地利用类型的数量结构和空间布局更为合理,其综合效益优于另外3种情景。该情景在合理限制经济发展速度的前提下,使生态建设获得稳定发展,其经济效益较生态保护优先情景下增长了8.96%,生态效益较经济发展优先情景下增长了0.77%,在生态保护与经济发展2种目标之间达到平衡,为西北农牧交错带的土地利用规划提供了决策辅助。     

遥感建筑用地信息的快速提取

建筑用地的急剧增加和耕地资源的迅速减少,使得土地利用动态变化监测显得尤为重要。遥感作为监测土地利用动态变化的一种有效手段,已经得到日益广泛的应用。但是建筑用地由于其光谱的异质性,而难以用简单的方法将它们从遥感影像中准确提取出来,遥感建筑用地指数(Index-based Built-up Index,IBI)是针对这一问题提出的。它的构建采用的是三个专题指数波段(SAVI植被指数、MNDWI水体指数、NDBI建筑指数),而不是影像的原始波段。由于这三个指数互为负相关,因此,可以有效地增强和提取遥感影像中的建筑用地信息。通过将IBI指数提取建筑用地的影像处理过程编成可自动执行的模块,并集成于大型的遥感商业软件中,使得影像数据处理和建筑用地信息提取时间大大缩短,提高了建筑用地信息增强和提取的效率。     

济宁地区采煤塌陷地治理现状及对策分析

济宁市矿产资源丰富,大量的地下矿产资源开采引发了矿区及周边出现了地下采空塌陷、地表沉降、农田损毁等一系列问题,给当地的生态环境造成了严重影响,也限制了当地经济社会的可持续发展。该文主要在归类和分析济宁地区采空塌陷区治理现状和治理模式相关资料的基础上,有针对性地分析探讨了济宁地区塌陷地治理在政策、资金等方面存在的问题,提出了充分发挥规划的统筹作用,进一步加大矿区地质环境立体监测网络的建设,探索推广塌陷地“PPP治理模式”,积极借鉴引黄淤填的经验做法,进一步加大对环保方面的研究,着力发展高效生态治理模式,促进矿产塌陷区多元化发展,为解决当地和类似其他地区塌陷地综合治理提供一定的参考。     

Farmer’s adaptive strategies on land competition between societal outcomes and agroecosystem conservation in the purple-soiled hilly region, southwestern China

The worldwide extension and intensification of farming during the last century has led to ecosystem degradation and caused a series of environmental problems.Conservation of ecosystem services in agricultural regions has been implemented by top-down government actions or initiated by resilience scientists in the developed countries,but little attention was paid in the developing countries,especially in some remote mountainous regions.The present paper presents a case study showing how local farmers obtained both maximal societal outcomes and agroecosystem conservation interests in the absence of distinct boundaries between agricultural and protected ecological areas in the densely populated purple-soiled hilly region of southwestern China.The local community(Yanting County) has developed a mosaic agricultural-forestry-fishery-stock breeding system with spatially targeted land uses,diverse agricultural productions and multiple ecological partnerships.It indicates that the local farmers have hereditarily perceived sound strategies on maximizing sustainable societal outcomes and optimizing tradeoffs among macro-market,state policy,new technological facility and ecological reinforcement.     

Impacts of land use change on landscape patterns in mountain human settlement: The case study of Hantai District(Shaanxi,China)

Mountain area is an important geographical unit of land,and its ecology is sensitive and fragile.Over the past few decades,human activities have caused dramatic changes in land use in mountainous areas,which caused changes in landscape patterns and impacts on the ecological environment.It is unknown how the mechanism of land use affects the landscape pattern at different scales.The Hantai District,a typical human settlement in the mountain area in Shaanxi,China,was chosen as the study area.Based on the remote sensing images,the mathematical models and landscape indexes were adopted to evaluate the impact of land use change from 1998 to 2017 on the landscape pattern at different scales,and its main driving forces were analyzed.The results showed that the urbanized land expanded largest from 15.39%to 24.30%,and cultivated land experienced the largest decline from 43.54%to 35.35%.Changes in land use have made the patch morphology of most land types developed from a natural random to a sawtooth shape,and its spatial pattern evolved from a ruleset to a fragmented expansion.This reflects the continuous strengthening of human intervention in the process of regional development.Under the jurisdiction of Hantai District,the biggest change in landscape pattern is in Hanzhong City and Qili Town.The improved economy and increasing population and urbanization rate were the main factors that cause these changes.This research could provide necessary information for understanding the evolution mechanism of land resources in mountainous human settlements for mountainous areas with significant geomorphic differentiation.     

Modelling Regional Land Change Scenarios to Assess Land Abandonment and Reforestation Dynamics in the Pyrenees(France)

Over the last decades and centuries,European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations.Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes(land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities,have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes.For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population.Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes,need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment.This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains,based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers.The proposed methodologyconsiders local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys,sub-regional climate and topographical properties,and regional economic policies.Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions.Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive(agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability.The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment(e.g.colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable.This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.     

敦煌西湖自然保护区湿地演化及驱动力分析

西湖国家级自然保护区位于河西走廊西端,是敦煌盆地人工绿洲的天然屏障。近几十年来,由于气候变化和人类水土资源过度开发,保护区生态环境持续恶化,湿地退化和沙漠化趋势日趋严重。本文运用多时相资源卫星遥感影像,解译分析了保护区湿地演化规律。结果表明：1980-2013年间有23个年份湿地处于快速退化状态,保护区湿地面积由1.72×10⁴ hm²减少到0.99×10⁴ hm²,减少了42.4%;保护区湿地的斑块数从32个增加到51个,平均斑块面积由537 hm²减少为213 hm²,湿地演化呈破碎化趋势。湿地分布质心向西南方向移动了11.59 km,湿地呈整体向西南缓慢移动的趋势。运用因子分析法对湿地演化的驱动因子进行了分类,并利用投影寻踪模型分析各驱动因子对湿地演化的贡献率,结果表明：下游湿地退化的根本原因是大规模引地表水和开采地下水灌溉,其次是气候变化引起的冰川退缩、径流量衰减。20世纪90年代,西湖保护区湿地处于相对稳定状态,建议敦煌地区耕地维持在20世纪90年代初的2.7×10⁴ hm²水平,或通过节水、调整作物结构和跨流域调水等措施,压缩引地表水和开采地下水水量,灌溉用水需控制在20世纪90年代初的用水水平。该研究成果可为自然保护区湿地保护和流域综合开发提供依据。     

浅析废弃盐田和盐碱地的生态修复路径——以山东省寿光市为例

本文以山东省寿光市北部数量众多的废弃盐田和盐碱地为例，结合基础现状分析，介绍了废弃盐田和盐碱地复垦的必要性，提出了综合开发利用的“六个模式”，以期多措并举，助力寿光北部盐田和盐碱地生态全面恢复，打造更高水平的“寿北粮仓”。废弃盐田和盐碱地治理需要遵循客观规律和科学理念，因地制宜，因地施策，创新性采用林盐结合、无土栽培、盐光互补等多种举措，为废弃盐田和盐碱地生态修复提供重要的科学依据。     

Paradigm and ecological implication of changing agricultural land-use: A case study from Govind Wildlife Sanctuary, Central Himalaya, India

The paper scrutinizes that the changes in any sub-system(i.e.agriculture,livestock and forest) have direct impact on biophysical and social processes in village ecosystem of the central Himalayan region.In view of this,we studied the changes in spatial patterns of agricultural land use and dependency of agroecosystem on forest and animal husbandry over a period of two decades.Based on data analysis it was found that the cultivation of some traditional crops has either been abandoned in the area or declined by 25%-85% due to introduction of cash crops viz.,potato,kidney bean and apple farming with acreage increased up to 51%-72% in the last three decades.Livestock population of different categories has declined drastically by 17%-75%,and has resulted shortage of farmyard manure,deterioration of soil quality and fertility which leads to un-sustainability of agriculture system.The changes in agrobiodiversity have led to the dramatic increase in soil loss and runoff from the croplands together with the increase pressure on forests.The economic evaluation of each crop showed higher monetary benefit from cash crops as compared to traditional crops.Among all the evaluated crops,the monetary output/input ratio was found highest(3.04) for kidney bean and lowest(1.26) for paddy.Changes in land use and management have improved household income but at the cost of forest degradation,less productive animal husbandry and loss of agrodiversity in the region.Therefore,there is an urgent need to bring desirable changes in agricultural policy,research,land use and efficient management of the resources for maintaining sustainability in agro and Himalayan forest ecosystem.     

蒙古国30米分辨率土地覆盖产品研制与空间格局分析

作为蒙古高原的重要组成单元,蒙古国的土地覆盖格局与变化对于东北亚的资源、环境、生态及可持续发展具有重要意义。针对本区域缺乏高精度、现势性的土地覆盖数据产品的问题,本研究利用Landsat TM影像,采用面向对象的分类方法开展蒙古国土地覆盖遥感数据产品研制与分析。首先针对蒙古国景观格局特征,自主研究了适宜于蒙古国的土地覆盖分类体系,基于面向对象的遥感解译技术方法研究了蒙古国自然地物和人工地物要素的提取算法规则与阈值,建立了一套完整的面向蒙古国的土地覆盖遥感解译技术方案,在分景解译基础上获取了蒙古国2010年土地覆盖分类产品。经验证,数据集一级类分类精度为92.34%,二级类分类精度为80.24%。蒙古国土地覆盖类型以裸地、草地、森林为主,其中裸地的面积最大,占总面积的48.64%,其分布比较集中连片,主要分布在蒙古国南部和西部;草地面积次之,占总面积的42.85%,其分布具有明显的地域性,主要集中在蒙古国北部湿润地区和河流附近;林地最少,占总面积的6.63%,以蒙古国北部及西北部高山地区为主要生长区域。整体上蒙古国土地覆盖空间格局呈现明显的区域差异与地类过渡性,从南向北依次为裸地、荒漠草地、典型草地、森林类型,其中荒漠草地在中部形成一条明显的分界条带。     

北京市摩拜共享单车源汇时空特征分析及空间调度

共享单车是解决城市出行最后一公里的重要工具。然而,共享单车在使用过程中出现了供需时空失衡的现象,导致部分区域无车可用,而另一些区域却车满为患。这一现象不仅给用户带来不便,同时也降低了单车周转效率。解决供需失衡问题,关键在于探究共享单车供需失衡的时空分布特征。本文定义了共享单车的“源”、“汇”点,采用2017年5月10日至2017年5月16日北京市摩拜单车数据以及土地利用分类等多源数据,分析了共享单车工作日与周末,以及早、晚高峰期间强源、强汇点的分布特征,并结合土地类型信息分析了不同用地类型的单车使用模式,从而进一步提出了共享单车的空间调度模型。结果显示,在考虑不同土地利用类型的影响下,摩拜共享单车强源汇点分布模式具有明显的时空异质性：① 工作日单车使用量明显高于周末,且不同土地利用类型的源汇分布显著不同,如居住用地、商业金融用地等地净流入、流出密度更大,绿地等地区则相对较小;② 对比早晚高峰期间,同一地区的单车使用源汇模式极可能相反,如教育科研用地、商业金融用地等带有办公性质的地区会有“早汇晚源”的特征,而居住用地则是“早源晚汇”;③ 同一类土地利用在工作日与周末的早晚高峰期间,单车使用的源汇特征亦存在差异,如办公性质的地区在周末时源汇比例会明显产下降。基于上述结果,本文提出了一种局部优化的调度模型,并通过实际数据进行了检验。该模型在一定程度上可以解决车辆空间分配不均衡的问题,提高城市共享资源使用率,增加人们出行的方便程度。     

Land Use Change During 1960-2000 Period and its Eco-environmental Effects in the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River： a Case Study in Yiliang County, Yunnan, China

Land use/land cover change (LUCC) is a focus of the research of global environmental changes.The middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River,which are the most ecologically fragile mountainous area in China as well as one of the areas in China with most notable LUCC, have been on the Chinese Government‘s list of priority areas for ecological restoration. This paper is to reveal the trend of LUCC and the ecological degradation arising from it, and to provide a basis for the future sustainable use of land resources in the region based on a detailed analysis of Yiliang County. Based on the county‘s land use/cover maps in 1960, 1980 and 2000 drawn with the aid of aerial photograph interpretation, field investigation and GIS based spatial-temporal data analysis, LUCC during 1960-2000 period and the ecological degradation arising from it were analyzed. Using the Markv model, the paper brings out a forecast of what the county‘s LUCC would be like if the county‘s current land use continues, as well as the reasons and countermeasures for restoring degraded ecosystems.     

Present status and cause of land desertification in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin

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