Planetary-Scale Wave Structures of the Earth’s Atmosphere Revealed from the COSMIC Observations

GPS radio occultation（GPS RO） method,an active satellite-to-satellite remote sensing technique,is capable of producing accurate,all-weather,round the clock,global refractive index,density,pressure,and temperature profiles of the troposphere and stratosphere.This study presents planetary-scale equatorially trapped Kelvin waves in temperature profiles retrieved using COSMIC（Constellation Observing System for Meteorology,Ionosphere,and Climate） satellites during 2006-2009 and their interactions with background atmospheric conditions.It is found that the Kelvin waves are not only associated with wave periods of higher than 10 days（slow Kelvin waves） with higher zonal wave numbers（either 1 or 2）,but also possessing downward phase progression,giving evidence that the source regions of them are located at lower altitudes.A thorough verification of outgoing longwave radiation（OLR） reveals that deep convection activity has developed regularly over the Indonesian region,suggesting that the Kelvin waves are driven by the convective activity.The derived Kelvin waves show enhanced（diminished） tendencies during westward（eastward） phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation（QBO） in zonal winds,implying a mutual relation between both of them.The El Nino and Southern Oscillation（ENSO） below 18 km and the QBO features between 18 and 27km in temperature profiles are observed during May 2006-May 2010 with the help of an adaptive data analysis technique known as Hilbert Huang Transform（HHT）.Further,temperature anomalies computed using COSMIC retrieved temperatures are critically evaluated during different phases of ENSO,which has revealed interesting results and are discussed in light of available literature.     

Environmental aerosols and their effect on the Earth’s local fair-weather electric field

Summary The Earths local fair-weather electric field is significantly affected by small ions present in the atmosphere. These ions are typically smaller than 0.001µm and occur in concentrations from 500 to 600cm^–3 in air. Attachment to larger aerosol particles may severely decrease the mobility of these atmospheric ions resulting in an increased local electric field. The number concentration of environmental aerosol particles in the size range 0.1 to 5.0µm was measured with two automatic laser scattering particle counters. The Earths electric field was monitored with an electric fieldmeter. Measurements were made in clean air and in an environment highly polluted by wood smoke. The electric field was found to be positively correlated to the aerosol number concentration. During one 24-hour period of measurement, the electric field increased from 180 to about 280Vm^–1 as the number concentration of aerosols larger than 0.1µm increased from about 2000 to 9000cm^–3. The number concentrations of aerosols larger than 0.1 and 0.3µm were both found to be positively correlated with the Earths electric field with correlation coefficients of 70% and 61%, respectively.Present address: School of Physical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane 4001, Australia.     

Climate entropy budget of the HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model and of FAMOUS, its low-resolution version

The entropy budget is calculated of the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model HadCM3. Estimates of the different entropy sources and sinks of the climate system are obtained directly from the diabatic heating terms, and an approximate estimate of the planetary entropy production is also provided. The rate of material entropy production of the climate system is found to be ～50 mW m^?2 K^?1, a value intermediate in the range 30–70 mW m^?2 K^?1 previously reported from different models. The largest part of this is due to sensible and latent heat transport (～38 mW m^?2 K^?1). Another 13 mW m^?2 K^?1 is due to dissipation of kinetic energy in the atmosphere by friction and Reynolds stresses. Numerical entropy production in the atmosphere dynamical core is found to be about 0.7 mW m^?2 K^?1. The material entropy production within the ocean due to turbulent mixing is ～1 mW m^?2 K^?1, a very small contribution to the material entropy production of the climate system. The rate of change of entropy of the model climate system is about 1 mW m^?2 K^?1 or less, which is comparable with the typical size of the fluctuations of the entropy sources due to interannual variability, and a more accurate closure of the budget than achieved by previous analyses. Results are similar for FAMOUS, which has a lower spatial resolution but similar formulation to HadCM3, while more substantial differences are found with respect to other models, suggesting that the formulation of the model has an important influence on the climate entropy budget. Since this is the first diagnosis of the entropy budget in a climate model of the type and complexity used for projection of twenty-first century climate change, it would be valuable if similar analyses were carried out for other such models.     

Altitude profile of the OH radical complex with water in Earth’s atmosphere: a quantum mechanical approach

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is important in both tropospheric and stratospheric chemical processes that occur in Earth’s atmosphere. The OH radical can also strongly hydrogen-bond to form complexes with other atmospheric constituents, like water molecules. Consequently, there is potential for altered reaction dynamics/kinetics as a result of this complexation. Without direct measurements of the abundances of such complexes in Earth’s atmosphere, we have adopted a theoretical approach to determine such abundances. Electronic structures, enthalpies and free Gibbs energies of formation of OH, H₂O and H₂O-HO were calculated at CCSD(T) and QCISD(T) levels of theory with either 6–311++G(2d,2p) or aug-cc-pVTZ basis. Statistical thermodynamic concepts were then used to assess the abundance of the complex as function of altitude.     

Discussion of the Möller radiation chart

Summary M?ller's assumptions for the carbon dioxide-water vapor overlap region, which lead to the construction of his radiation chart, are reinvestigated in the light of modern theory. A new radiation chart, taking into account the carbon dioxide-water vapor overlap, is constructed using water vapor and carbon dioxide absorption data as furnished byM?ller andElsasser respectively. The results of the radiative fluxes computed from the new chart are compared with equivalent results using the original M?ller and the revised Elsasser radiation diagrams, as well as with measurements.

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Zusammenfassung Die Berechtigung derM?llerschen Annahme zur getrennten Behandlung von Kohlens?ure- und Wasserdampfabsorption zwecks Konstruktion eines atmosph?rischen Strahlungsdiagrammes wird im Lichte der modernen Theorie diskutiert. Ein neues Strahlungspapier wird vorgelegt, das die gleichzeitige Anwesenheit von Kohlens?ure und Wasserdampf im gleichen Spektralbereich berücksichtigt. Dieses beruht auf Wasserdampf- und Kohlens?uredaten, die vonM?ller undElsasser vorgegeben wurden. Nach dem neuen Strahlungsdiagramm berechnete Werte werden mit Me?werten und theoretischen Werten verglichen, die mit dem ursprünglichen M?llerschen und mit dem verbesserten Elsasserschen Strahlungspapier ermittelt wurden.

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Résumé Au vu des théories modernes, on discute l'hypothèse formulée parM?ller et sa justification, hypothèse selon laquelle il est nécessaire de traiter séparément l'absorption du dioxyde de carbone et celle de la vapeur d'eau lors de l'établissement d'un diagramme du rayonnement atmosphérique. On propose alors un nouvel abaque qui tient compte de la présence simultanée du dioxyde de carbone et de la vapeur d'eau dans la même région spectrale. Cet abaque s'appuie sur les valeurs données parM?ller et parElsasser, valeurs valables pour ces deux gaz. On compare le résultat de calculs effectués avec ce nouvel abaque à des mesures et à des valeurs théoriques ces dernières étant basées tant sur les travaux originaux deM?ller que sur l'abaque amélioré deElsasser.

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With 4 Figures     

A more accurate scheme for calculating Earth’s skin temperature

The theoretical framework of the vertical discretization of a ground column for calculating Earth’s skin temperature is presented. The suggested discretization is derived from the evenly heat-content discretization with the optimal effective thickness for layer-temperature simulation. For the same level number, the suggested discretization is more accurate in skin temperature as well as surface ground heat flux simulations than those used in some state-of-the-art models. A proposed scheme (“op(3,2,0)”) can reduce the normalized root–mean–square error (or RMSE/STD ratio) of the calculated surface ground heat flux of a cropland site significantly to 2% (or 0.9 W m^?2), from 11% (or 5 W m^?2) by a 5-layer scheme used in ECMWF, from 19% (or 8 W m^?2) by a 5-layer scheme used in ECHAM, and from 74% (or 32 W m^?2) by a single-layer scheme used in the UCLA GCM. Better accuracy can be achieved by including more layers to the vertical discretization. Similar improvements are expected for other locations with different land types since the numerical error is inherited into the models for all the land types. The proposed scheme can be easily implemented into state-of-the-art climate models for the temperature simulation of snow, ice and soil.     

Numerical Simulation and Observational Analysis of the Bora of Pag’s Ribs

The severe bora case that lasted from 13 to 15 November 2004 has been selected for the analysis of the bora of Pag’s ribs, which occurs in the northern part of the eastern Adriatic coast over the Pag island area (Croatia). According to the measurements from automatic stations, the MM5 numerical model is successful in the 10-min mean wind speed prediction at 10-m height. The vertical analysis of the wind speed and potential temperature also gave satisfactory results. At the commencement of the bora the modelled wind had a magnitude of 20ms⁻¹ at 10-m height in the Pag island area, which sharply attenuated in the cross direction and to the open sea. In this way the model has proved successful in predicting the characteristics of the bora of Pag’s ribs. Potential vorticity (PV) at 600m has lower values within PV banners than during the developed bora. The consequence is a strong jet emanating from the nearest gap. The vertical cross-sections through the centre of the gap point out a permanent hydraulic-like flow. At the time of the bora of Pag’s ribs the highest modelled turbulent kinetic energy is found in the jump-like region above the inversion and within the boundary layer along the lower boundary, ranging from 6–8m² s⁻². It is concluded that the dissipation in the hydraulic jumps and the wave breaking regions are the reasons for PV generation.     

Surface‐absorbed and top‐of‐atmosphere radiation fluxes for the Mackenzie River basin from satellite observations and a regional climate model and an evaluation of the model

Abstract

Both the earth‐reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) as well as surface‐absorbed solar fluxes from Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) simulations of the Mackenzie River Basin for the period March 2000 to September 2003 are compared with the radiation fluxes deduced from satellite observations. The differences between the model and satellite solar fluxes at the TOA and at the surface, which are used in this paper to evaluate the CRCM performance, have opposite biases under clear skies and overcast conditions, suggesting that the surface albedo is underestimated while cloud albedo is overestimated. The slightly larger differences between the model and satellite fluxes at the surface compared to those at the TOA indicate the existence of a small positive atmospheric absorption bias in the model. The persistent overestimation of TOA reflected solar fluxes and underestimation of the surface‐absorbed solar fluxes by the CRCM under all sky conditions are consistent with the overestimation of cloud fraction by the CRCM. This results in a larger shortwave cloud radiative forcing (CRF) both at the TOA and at the surface in the CRCM simulation. The OLR from the CRCM agrees well with the satellite observations except for persistent negative biases during the winter months under all sky conditions. Under clear skies, the OLR is slightly underestimated by the CRCM during the winter months and overestimated in the other months. Under overcast conditions the OLR is underestimated by the CRCM, suggesting an underestimation of cloud‐top temperature by the CRCM. There is an improvement in differences between model and satellite fluxes compared to previously reported results largely because of changes to the treatment of the surface in the model.     

Assessing the potential impact of climate change on the UK’s electricity network

We investigate how weather affects the UK’s electricity network, by examining past data of weather-related faults on the transmission and distribution networks. By formalising the current relationship between weather-related faults and weather, we use climate projections from a regional climate model (RCM) to quantitatively assess how the frequency of these faults may change in the future. This study found that the incidences of both lightning and solar heat faults are projected to increase in the future. There is evidence that the conditions that cause flooding faults may increase in the future, but a reduction cannot be ruled out. Due to the uncertainty associated with future wind projections, there is no clear signal associated with the future frequency of wind and gale faults, however snow, sleet and blizzard faults are projected to decrease due to a reduction in the number of snow days.     

A deep stratospheric intrusion event down to the earth’s surface of the megacity of Athens

This case study investigates a stratospheric intrusion event down to the earth’s surface (near sea-level pressure) of the greater area of Athens (23.43°E 37.58°N), which occurred on 9 October 2003 and caused a remarkable increase in surface ozone concentrations not related to photochemical production. This event is among the rare case studies investigating, on the one hand, a deep stratospheric intrusion down to the earth’s surface at near sea-level pressure and, on the other, an event affecting the near surface ozone of a megacity such as Athens. The synoptic situation is described by a deep upper lever trough at 300 and 500 hPa extending over Greece, which is related to a deep tropopause fold as revealed by vertical cross sections of potential vorticity, relative humidity, divergence and vertical velocity. The analysis of potential vorticity at several isentropic levels indicates a hook-shaped streamer of high PV values (greater than 4 pvu at the 315 K isentropic level) over southeast Europe, which coincides with a streamer of dry air as observed from satellite images of water vapor. The aforementioned structure characterizes a textbook case study of stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was used to calculate the trajectories of air particles reaching the receptor site and the fraction of particles with stratospheric origin. It reveals an important direct stratospheric impact within 1 day related to the tropopause fold described in this study with the fraction of stratospheric particles reaching maximum values of 1.9 and 4.5% for threshold values of the dynamical tropopause 2 and 1.5 pvu, respectively. Furthermore, a larger indirect aged stratospheric contribution is also revealed 4 to 5 days prior to the release, related to stratospheric intrusion events at the western Atlantic Ocean, reaching maximum values of 2.5 and 6.9% of particles crossing the 2 and 1.5 pvu potential vorticity surfaces, respectively.     

Application of the delta‐Eddington method to the absorption of solar radiation in the atmosphere

Abstract

A model to compute rapidly the absorption of solar radiation in the atmosphere is described. The model is based partially on the parameterization of Lacis and Hansen and also makes use of the delta‐Eddington method. In addition to absorption by ozone and water vapour, and scattering by air molecules and clouds, the mode1 includes absorption and scattering by aerosols. Good agreement is found in comparison with the Lacis and Hansen parameterization in the absence of clouds and aerosol. The present model represents an improvement in the treatment of scattering by clouds. Its main advantage though, is in its flexibility in allowing for interactions with the atmospheric aerosol.     

It’s not just the statistical model. A comment on Seo (2013)

A recent paper in this journal argues that the choice of statistical model is responsible for the divergence in damage estimates of climate change on US agriculture. We provide five arguments why we believe this assertion is misguided.     

Exploring the climate problems of Brazil’s Nordeste: a review

This article reviews the exploration of the climate dynamics of Brazil’s Nordeste in the course of a century. The drought-prone and semi-arid northern Nordeste of Brazil experiences a short rainy season around March–April, when the interhemispheric gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic is weakest and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) reaches its southernmost position in the course of the annual cycle. The recurrent Secas (droughts) have a severe socio-economic impact. During drought years, the interhemispheric SST gradient in the tropical Atlantic is steep and the ITCZ stays far North, while the waters of the eastern equatorial Pacific tend to be anomalously warm. Based on the extensive diagnostic exploration of the circulation mechanisms of interannual climate variability, empirical methods have been developed for the forecasting of the Nordeste rainy season. These have been applied in the real-time prediction of seasonal rainfall anomalies throughout the last decade of the 20th century.     

The ocean’s role in setting the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone

Through study of observations and coupled climate simulations, it is argued that the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) north of the equator is a consequence of a northwards heat transport across the equator by ocean circulation. Observations suggest that the hemispheric net radiative forcing of climate at the top of the atmosphere is almost perfectly symmetric about the equator, and so the total (atmosphere plus ocean) heat transport across the equator is small (order 0.2 PW northwards). Due to the Atlantic ocean’s meridional overturning circulation, however, the ocean carries significantly more heat northwards across the equator (order 0.4 PW) than does the coupled system. There are two primary consequences. First, atmospheric heat transport is southwards across the equator to compensate (0.2 PW southwards), resulting in the ITCZ being displaced north of the equator. Second, the atmosphere, and indeed the ocean, is slightly warmer (by perhaps 2 °C) in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. This leads to the northern hemisphere emitting slightly more outgoing longwave radiation than the southern hemisphere by virtue of its relative warmth, supporting the small northward heat transport by the coupled system across the equator. To conclude, the coupled nature of the problem is illustrated through study of atmosphere–ocean–ice simulations in the idealized setting of an aquaplanet, resolving the key processes at work.     

Uncertainty of the numerical solution of a nonlinear system’s long-term behavior and global convergence of the numerical pattern

The computational uncertainty principle in nonlinear ordinary differential equations makes the numerical solution of the long-term behavior of nonlinear atmospheric equations have no meaning. The main reason is that, in the error analysis theory of present-day computational mathematics, the non-linear process between truncation error and rounding erroris treated as a linear operation. In this paper, based on the operator equations of large-scale atmospheric movement, the above limitation is overcome by using the notion of cell mapping. Through studying the global asymptotic characteristics of the numerical pattern of the large-scale atmospheric equations, the definitions of the global convergence and an appropriate discrete algorithm of the numerical pattern are put forward. Three determinant theorems about the global convergence of the numerical pattern are presented, which provide the theoretical basis for constructing the globally convergent numerical pattern. Further, it is pointed out that only a globally convergent numerical pattern can improve the veracity of climatic prediction.     

Impact of Earth’s orbit and freshwater fluxes on Holocene climate mean seasonal cycle and ENSO characteristics

We use a state-of-the-art 3-dimensional coupled model to investigate the relative impact of long term variations in the Holocene insolation forcing and of a freshwater release in the North Atlantic. We show that insolation has a greater effect on seasonality and La Ni?a events and is the major driver of sea surface temperature changes. In contrast, the variations in precipitation reflect changes in El Ni?o events. The impact of ice-sheet melting may have offset the impact of insolation on El Ni?o Southern Oscillation variability at the beginning of the Holocene. These simulations provide a coherent framework to refine the interpretation of proxy data and show that changes in seasonality may bias the projection of relationships established between proxy indicators and climate variations in the east Pacific from present day records.