Prediction of maximum magnitude and original time of reservoir induced seismicity

Introduction Prediction of RIS includes earlier stage prediction and seismic tendency prediction. In earlier stage, the prediction is to predict the possibility and maximum magnitude of RIS before reservoir are built up. It is made up on the basis of geological condition and the definite method and the statistical model method are usually used. The definite method by analogy with geological condi-tion is to analyze and sum up the main conditions of RIS. Using the main conditions compared w…     

Source parameters of some significant earthquakes near Koyna dam,India

Seismic moment, stress drop, source radius, and fault dislocation have been determined for nineteen significant earthquakes in the Konya area, India using displacement spectra of shear waves computed from strong-motion accelerograph records. Though the stress-drop shows a definite increasing trend with the seismic moment, its correlations with source radius and corner frequency indicate that a constant stress drop of 170 bars represents a good mean value to describe the source mechanism of the Koyna dam earthquakes. An empirical relationship also has been established between magnitude and seismic moment.     

Seismicity of the Koyna region and regional tectonomagmatism of the Western Margin (India)

Recent findings on the Meso-Cenozoic tectonomagmatism and deep-seated anomalous geophysical structures suggest a close linkage between the seismicity of the Koyna region, the Westernghat uplift (WG-U) and associated thermomechanical and fluid activities. The WG-U seems to be the result of late Cretaceous thermal mobilization, erosion of the Deccan trap cover and superposition of compressional stress. The association of seismicity with uplift seems to result from movement of deep-seated heat and fluids/volatiles along the edges (or boundary faults) of the uplift; because the force required for crustal deformation depends on the relief. Observed gradients in relief may be attributed to the differential erosion-rates and heat inputs, due to the time gap of 50 Ma in the break-ups and plume activities on the eastern and western sides and consequence magmatism. Further, the geology and tectonics strongly indicate that the western margin (WM) is a relic of a mobile arm (MA), that included Madagascar, and which formed a part of the Proterozoic mobile belt of greater India (fort>85 Ma). The mobile nature of the WM facilitates mantle upwellings and transient elevation of isotherms at depth, raising the possibility of intermittent metamorphism and greater deformation.Superposition of the ongoing compression and uplift-induced forces make local permeability and pore-fluid pressure vital in triggering the seismic slip over the Peninsular shield. Certain representative model calculations have been carried out to estimate change in the e.m. induction characteristics caused by an intermittent hydraulic connectivity. The results show a drop in the resistivity which could be a useful monitoring index. The close connection of uplift and fluid activity as discussed here seems applicable for other active parts of the South Indian Shield (SIS) also.     

Evidence for induced seismicity in the vicinity of Fierza reservoir,Northern Albania

The reservoir of Fierza on the Drini River, Northern Albania, is Albania's largest reservoir and it is one of the world's largest reservoirs of high dams (reservoir volume at maximum water level, 2.8 * 10⁹ m³; dam height, 167 m and dam capacity 8 * 10⁶ m³). We compare pre-and postimpounding seismicity of the area surrounding the Fierza reservoir. An increase of seismic microactivity was observed after the impounding of the reservoir. More than 300 microearthquakes, occurred in the immediate vicinity of the main body of the reservoir, with local magnitude ranging between 1.3 and 3.6. A significant change of theb value in the magnitude-frequency relationship was observed. One swarm of microtremors occurred in the northern part of the reservoir on April 4–5, 1981, where an alteration of the tensor of natural tectonic stresses is revealed. The theoretical additional stress and displacement induced by water-load in the bank of the reservoir were estimated for four cross-profiles of the reservoir area and the maximum values resulted near the location of the above swarm.     

长宁地区复杂地震活动的力学成因分析

长宁地区地震活动复杂,发生在长宁背斜轴部的长宁M_S6.0地震及其后续中强余震的震源机制与相距仅十几公里的南部向斜区内的中强震具有显著差异;这种差异仅仅是由于发震断层构造不同所造成的,还是孕育地震的应力场本身也存在局部变化？为了回答这一问题,本文在通过双差层析成像反演修正小震定位和波速结构的基础上,利用小震综合震源机制解方法获取了长宁地区地壳应力场的精细结构,并据此分析了其与中强震震源机制解的力学一致性.研究发现,长宁地区地壳应力场的最大主应力轴在整个区域内基本都处于近水平状态,其方位虽由北向南发生了一定角度的顺时针旋转,但也基本保持为近东西向;相比之下,应力类型在长宁背斜轴部和南部向斜区之间存在显著差异——前者为逆冲型,而后者为走滑型.同时,这两个局部区域的应力场与对应区域内的中强震震源机制解的吻合度较高,但与非对应区域内的中强震震源机制解的吻合度较低,甚至在力学上是相抵触的,表明区域应力场的局部改变是长宁地区复杂地震活动的必要力学基础.通过岩石力学估算,本文认为岩石泊松比的横向差异很可能是造成这种应力场局部改变的主要成因.此外,本文还对长宁M_S6.0地震序列的发震构造进行了探讨,认为长宁背斜轴部在6~9 km深度内存在基底断层,而正是这种基底断层在区域应力场作用下发生错动导致了长宁M_S6.0地震序列的发生.

     

Induced seismicity at wujiangdu reservoir,China: a case induced in the karst area

To date 19 cases of reservoir-induced seismicity have been acknowledged in China and 15 of them are associated with karst. The Wujiangdu case is a typical one induced in the karst area. The dam with a height of 165 m is the highest built in a karst area in China. Seismic activity has been successively induced in five reservoir segments seven months after the impoundment in 1979. A temporary seismic network consisting of 8 stations was set up in one of the segments some 40 km upstream from the dam. The results indicate that epicenters were distributed along the immediate banks, composed of karstified carbonate, and focal depths were only several hundred meters. Most of the focal mechanisms were of thrust and normal faulting. It is suggested that karst may be an important factor in inducing seismicity. It can provide an hydraulic connection to change the saturation and pressure and also weak planes for dislocation to induce seismicity.     

An overview on the seismicity of Cuba

The seismicity of Cuba is briefly presented together with a few fundamental neotectonic elements of the adjacent Caribbean region. The Cuban seismicity catalogue has been extended back to 1528 and it shows that the largest earthquakes occurred in 1766 and 1852 (I = IX MSK). Two types of seismicity (intraplate and interplate) can be distinguished in Cuba. Western and Eastern Seismotectonic Units correspond to intraplate type and the Southeastern Seismotectonic Unit to interplate type. Western Cuba is characterized by a low frequency of earthquake occurrence. Distribution of epicenters is not regular and the most important events mainly concentrate along two regional active fault system (Nortecubana and Surcubana). Due to the lack of seismic stations in this region, the characterization of seismicity is frequently done on the grounds of historical data available from 1693. The main seismogenic source for Cuba is the Bartlett-Cayman fault system, but inland there are other active structures. Some issues about historical and present day Cuban seismological research are also showed.     

Spatial and temporal distribution of seismicity before the Umbria-Marche September 26, 1997 earthquakes

Spatial and temporal distribution of seismicityoccurring prior to the Umbria-Marche earthquake ofSeptember 26, 1997, are studied. By applying the RTLprognostic parameter, a quiescence stage followed bya period of foreshock activation is observed beforethe event. The main shock occurred soon after therecovery of the RTL parameter to its normal backgroundlevel. An investigation of the clustering process isperformed on the earthquakes with M 3.5,occurred since 1989 in the area of the epicenter ofthe September 26, 1997 event. In comparison to theaverage background of the previous period, theincrease of the area of rupture activated during thetwelve months leading up to the Umbria-Marcheconcentrates in the vicinity of the main shock. Someresults of application of the time-to-failure model toseismicity before the Umbria-Marche main shock, arealso discussed.     

摩擦状态-速率依从的区域地震触发模型研究

设计一个具有摩擦状态-速率依从机制模拟大地震后区域触发地震的模型, 该模型由一定数量表示地震成核断层的函数组成。 大震对区域静应力场的影响由应力阶跃载荷表现, 利用摩擦状态-速率依从的一维自由度弹簧滑块模型结果计算地震发生时间提前。 结果表明, 施加幅度为地震应力降几十分之一至百分之一的应力阶跃, 可以引起地震发生速率的明显变化, 该变化通过统计检验, 与大地震后的区域触发地震活动相似。     

Mathematical modelling of nonlinear behaviour of seismicity

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Role of dykes in induced seismicity at Bhatsa reservoir,Maharashtra, India

The geological and hydrological conditions near the reservoir site play an important role in the generation or absence of seismic activity. Near Bhatsa reservoir, along the west coast of India intense seismic activity occurred during August–September 1983, after a lag of six years of initial impounding. From July 1983 to September 1990, 15,388 earthquakes (mostlyM ₁<3.0) were recorded, the largest being of magnitude 4.9. The spatial distribution of well located 172 earthquakes suggest a strong correlation between the epicenters and the disposition of dykes and faults around the Bhatsa region. It is inferred that these dykes have acted as barriers for the diffusion of water from the reservoir, thereby becoming zones of instability due to increased pore pressure not only along them but also over the volume they bound.     

空间光滑地震活动性模型中光滑函数的比较研究

使用Frankel提出的基于空间光滑地震活动性模型的地震危险性分析方法,选择华南、华北、川滇3个地区的地震记录,比较分析了高斯、幂律和地震分形分布光滑函数3种光滑函数在不同地区的适用性．结果表明,使用交叉验证法可以为高斯光滑函数选取合适的相关距离c值,光滑得到的地震活动性模型能够真实反映研究区域的地震活动特征,根据活动性模型计算得出的峰值加速度(PGA)分布也符合人们对研究区域地震危险性的认识．幂律光滑函数适用于地震活动性较强的地区,且具有容易求取光滑参数的优点．光滑程度较低的幂律光滑函数不适用于地震活动性弱的地区,在该类地区应选择光滑程度较高的高斯光滑函数．地震分形分布光滑函数不适用于地震活动较强且地震活动强度差异较大的地区,其容易过分高估高震级地震对地震危险性的影响,而忽略了低震级地震对地震危险性的贡献．但对于地震活动较弱且地震活动强度差异较小的地区,可使用地震分形分布光滑函数,且同样具有容易求取光滑参数的优点．     

龙泉山断裂带地震活动性浅析

通过对龙泉山断裂带东坡断裂和西坡断裂的地震活动性研究,表明该带是一条活断层。历史地震记载和现今地震活动均呈现沿断裂带分布,地震活动呈现周期性和南北跳迁的特点,近10年来地震监测资料表明该带地震活动在增强。     

Research on percolation model and criticality of seismicity

IntroductionEarthquakepredictionisamainobjectiveintraditionalseismicitystUdy,whichistoattempttofindsomecriterionofprecursoryearthquakeactivitybycomparingdifferentpatternsofseismicityinhopesofpredictingoccurrenceofamajorshock.Theresultisoftendisappointing.Preearthquakeactivitiescandiffergreatlyforimpendingearthquake,althoughalltheruptureprocessesoflargeearthquakesareessentiallythesameasfarasweknowsofar.Asalreadydiscussedintheresultofresearchonseismicityevolution(Gu,Sun,1992),theself-enlargeme…     

唐山老震区地震活动特征

整理校正唐山长时间地震序列数据,用基于时空ETAS模型的随机除丛法,分析1976年唐山长时间地震序列的活动特点,发现唐山老震区1992年后进入余震活动的晚期阶段,目前地震活动未完全恢复到背景地震的水平。用频度和应变能两种不同的异常指标分析唐山老震区作为“余震窗口”对中强震的指示意义,发现唐山余震窗口的早期阶段（1980-1986年）,频次作异常指标映震效果较好,晚期阶段（1992-2010年）,应变能作为异常指标映震效果更好。     

Intraplate seismicity of the Pacific Basin, 1913–1988

We establish here a comprehensive database of intraplate seismicity in the Pacific Basin. Relocation and analysis of 894 earthquakes yield 403 reliable intraplate earthquakes during 1913–1988. These numbers do not include earthquake swarms, which account for another 838 events. Most of the remainder (304 events) are actually plate boundary earthquakes that have been erroneously located in intraplate regions. A significant number occur in recent years when location capabilities should have guarded against this situation. Relocations involve a careful linear inversion ofP andS arrivals, accompanied by a Monte Carlo statistical analysis. We have also attentively removed the high number of clerical errors and nuclear tests that exist in epicenter bulletins.A geographical examination of the relocated epicenters reveals several striking features. There are three NW-SE lineaments north of the Fiji Plateau and in Micronesia; diffuse seismicity and incompatible focal mechanisms argue against the southernmost, discussed byOkal et al. (1986) andKroenke andWalker (1986), as the simple relocation of the Solomon trench to the North. Besides another striking lineament, along the 130°W meridian, there is also a strong correlation between seismicity and bathymetry in certain parts of the Basin. In the Eastcentral Pacific and Nazca plates there are many epicenters on fracture zones and fossil spreading ridges, and hot spot traces like the Louisville, Nazca and Cocos Ridges also display seismicity.     

新疆于田地区背景地震与触发地震活动分析

正新疆于田地区历史上发生过多次6.0级以上地震,北京时间2020年6月26日在此地区再次发生MS 6.4地震。震后,中国地震局地震预测研究所紧急开展地震应急会商,并组织多家单位针对此次地震开展了虚拟科考工作。其中,所发生的地震是否属于其他强震的余震,与历史上已发生的多个强震存在怎样的关系,或者还是属于独立的背景地震活动,     

Histortical seismicity of the offshore Fujian-Guangdong region

The earthquakes offshore Fujian and Guangdong Provinces concentrated along the two segments near Nan’ao in the south and Quanzhou in the north of the off coast fault, which is very active since the late Pleistocene. In 1918 and 1906, two earthquakes with magnitudes 7.3 and 6.1 respectively occurred in the south and the north regions. With the instrumentally determined seismic parameters of these two earthquakes as standards, the author evaluated the parameters of the historical earthquakes by comparing their macroseismic materials with consideration of the geological background. As a result, chronological tables of historical earthquakes of the south and the north regions were compiled. The seismic activity of the two regions synchronized basically, and their strongest recorded earthquakes were both aroundM _s 7.3. Seismic activity usually intensified before the occurrence of strong events. Aftershocks were frequent, but strong aftershocks usually occurred one to several years after the main shock. Two high tides of seismic activity occurred since the late 15th century. Around 1600, eight earthquakes each with magnitudes over 4.3 occurred in both of the two regions. The magnitude of the strongest shock in the south region is 6.7, that in the north region is 7.5. The second high tide occurred at the early 20th century. Among the 18 earthquakes occurred in the south region, one was of magnitude 7.3; whilst only two earthquakes with magnitudes 6.1 and 5.5 respectively occurred in the north region. Further, medium to strong earthquakes never occurred since 1942. Whether this is the “mitigation effect” of strong shocks, or a big earthquake is brewing in the north region is worth intensive study. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 505–515, 1991. This work is supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

位于构造活跃区的小湾水库地震活动特征——基于地震精定位的分析

针对我国在西南构造活跃区修建的水库蓄水与地震活动的关系,本文对蓄水已长达7年并在高水位运维多个周期的云南小湾水库,采用结合波形互相关技术的双差地震定位法对水库库区及周边地区2005年7月至2014年12月发生的M≥1.0级地震进行了精定位处理,结果显示出明显的地震成丛活动特征,库区内外的地震震源深度差别较大.对地震震源深度、地震活动与水库蓄水水位及b值分析结果表明:小湾水库蓄水后地震活动明显增多,有水库触发地震发生,触发地震主要分布在沿黑惠江(A)和澜沧江流域(B、C)的3组地震丛中,且3个区的触发地震类型均为快速响应型;在水库蓄水响应活动最明显的地震丛集区A,展现出明显的随水库蓄水水体渗透发生地震"迁移"活动的现象;但库区内也存在着与蓄水关系不大的可能属于正常构造地震的活动,而库区外的地震活动与水库蓄水没有什么相关性,很可能是属于正常的构造地震.综合断层展布、岩性分布及震源深度分析,认为水库蓄水引起的溶岩作用和渗透作用及断层活动可能是小湾水库触发地震的主控因素.     

基于Dieterich地震发生率模型分析前震成因的力学机制

前震是地震前兆观测中的一个重要物理量,前震的研究对地震预测的发展尤为重要,前震序列的典型特征包括加速发生的小震与古登堡-里克特定律（Gutenberg-Richter Law）中的b值变小.本文在Dieterich提出的地震发生率模型的基础上,探讨前震发生的力学成因机制及前震-主震-余震时域演化特征.模型分析结果表明,前震震源区断层及其断层周边剪应力加载速率的变化可能是前震发生及地震发生率变化的一个关键原因.由于前震震源区次级断层之间剪应力加载速率受来自主震成核过程中断层自加速滑移的影响升高,从而可导致这些次级断裂的加速失稳,即加速前震的发生.当震源区内由前震所产生的静态应力扰动不可忽略时,应力扰动和主震成核的共同作用也可对后续前震发生率产生影响.当正向应力扰动出现时,后续的前震序列的地震发生率会出现陡增,随后其地震发生率逐渐下降.而当负向应力扰动出现时,地震发生率会出现陡降,然后再次逐渐上升.基于Kostrov模型,本文得到了剪应力加载速率与古登堡-里克特定律中b值的关系式,结果表明前震序列中b值的减小与前震区内的剪应力加载速率的上升有关.