On the Arctic Ocean ice thickness response to changes in the external forcing

Submarine and satellite observations show that the Arctic Ocean ice cover has undergone a large thickness reduction and a decrease in the areal extent during the last decades. Here the response of the Arctic Ocean ice cover to changes in the poleward atmospheric energy transport, F _wall, is investigated using coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean column models. Two models with highly different complexity are used in order to illustrate the importance of different internal processes and the results highlight the dramatic effects of the negative ice thickness—ice volume export feedback and the positive surface albedo feedback. The steady state ice thickness as a function of F _wall is determined for various model setups and defines what we call ice thickness response curves. When a variable surface albedo and snow precipitation is included, a complex response curve appears with two distinct regimes: a perennial ice cover regime with a fairly linear response and a less responsive seasonal ice cover regime. The two regimes are separated by a steep transition associated with surface albedo feedback. The associated hysteresis is however small, indicating that the Arctic climate system does not have an irreversible tipping point behaviour related to the surface albedo feedback. The results are discussed in the context of the recent reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover. A new mechanism related to regional and temporal variations of the ice divergence within the Arctic Ocean is presented as an explanation for the observed regional variation of the ice thickness reduction. Our results further suggest that the recent reduction in areal ice extent and loss of multiyear ice is related to the albedo dependent transition between seasonal and perennial ice i.e. large areas of the Arctic Ocean that has previously been dominated by multiyear ice might have been pushed below a critical mean ice thickness, corresponding to the above mentioned transition, and into a state dominated by seasonal ice.     

The response of the ‘green revolution’ to climatic variability

The purpose of this research is to assess the climatic sensitivity of high yielding variety (‘HYV’) ‘green revolution’ wheat. Improved multiple regression models were constructed for yields in India and Sonora, Mexico — the two most intensively planted regions in the world. After isolating the most important climatic predictors (which, not surprisingly, are total rainfall over the irrigation basins), the models were reduced to the pre-HYV period, and then re-run with successively more years of HYV input. This test indicated that increased adoption of the HYV package is associated with a significant increase in yield sensitivity to the most important climatic determinants of yield. To serve as a control, the U.S. Winter Wheat region was also modelled with a similar method. Overall, there is no significant increase in yield sensitivity to climate during the same period that HYV's were adopted in Mexico and India. Assuming that there is no change in overall climatic variability, this study indicates that production will nonetheless become more variable, particularly as HYV culture is expanded. Ironically, countries with rapidly expanding populations, that rely increasingly on HYV's, will experience the most significant fluctuations.     

The Summer Arctic Boundary Layer during the Arctic Ocean Experiment 2001 (AOE-2001)

Boundary-layer measurements made from the Swedish icebreaker Oden during the Arctic Ocean Experiment 2001 (AOE-2001) are analysed. They refer mainly to ice drift in the central Arctic during the period 2–21 August 2001. On board Oden a remote sensing array with a wind profiler, cloud radar and a scanning microwave radiometer, and a regular weather station operated continuously; soundings were also released during research stations. Turbulence and profile measurements on an 18-m mast were deployed on the ice, along with two sodar systems, a microbarograph array and a tethered sounding system. Surface flux and meteorological stations were also deployed on nearby ice floes. There is a clear diurnal cycle in radiation and also in wind speed, cloud base and visibility. It is absent in temperature and humidity, probably due to the very strong control by melting/ freezing ice and snow. In the advection of warm air, latent heat of melting maintains the surface temperature at 0 °C, while with a negative energy balance the latent heat of freezing of the salty ocean water acts to maintain the surface temperature > −2 °C. The constant presence of water at the surface maintains a relative humidity close to 100%, and this is also often facilitated by an increasing specific humidity through the capping inversion, making entrainment a moisture source. This ensures cloudy conditions, with low cloud and fog prevailing most of the time. Intrusions of warm and moist air from beyond the ice edge are frequent, but the local Arctic boundary layer remains at a relatively constant temperature, and is shallow and well mixed with strong capping inversions. Power spectra of surface-layer wind speed sometimes show large variance at low frequency. A scanning radiometer provides a monitoring of the vertical thermal structure with a spatial and temporal resolution not seen before in the Arctic. There are often two inversions, an elevated main inversion and a weak surface inversion, and occasionally additional inversions occur. Enhanced entrainment across the main inversion appears to occur during frontal passages. Variance of the scanning radiometer temperatures occurs in large pulses rather than varying smoothly, and the height to the maximum variance appears to be a reasonable proxy for the boundary-layer depth.     

Modelling geomorphic response to climatic change

This paper develops a three-step thaw model to assess the impact of predicted warming on an ice-rich polar desert landscape in the Canadian high Arctic. Air temperatures are established for two climate scenarios, showing mean annual increases of 4.9 and 6.5°C. This leads to a lengthening of the summer thaw season by up to 26 days and increased thaw depths of 12–70 cm, depending on the thermal properties of the soil. Subsidence of the ground surface is the primary landscape response to warming and is shown to be a function of the amount and type of ground ice in various cryostratigraphic units. In areas of pore ice and thin ice lenses with a low density of ice wedges, subsidence may be as much as 32 cm. In areas with a high density of ice wedges, subsidence will be slightly higher at 34 cm. Where massive ice is present, subsidence will be greater than 1 m. Landscape response to new climate conditions can take up to 15 years, and may be as long as 50 years in certain cases.     

The response of lake levels and areas to climatic change

The levels and areas of lakes, particularly closed lakes (those without outlet) are known to be sensitive indicators of changes in climate, and so in principle they can play a role in monitoring current and future climatic changes. In this paper we derive solutions to the water balance equation giving the response of the level and area of closed lakes to steps, spikes and sinusoidal variations in aridity, and show that such a lake acts approximately as a simple low pass filter having a characteristic equilibrium response timeτ _e. We also review the similar response of open lakes to changes in runoff. It is shown howτ _e depends on lake geomorphology and climate, and for a number of lakes we calculateτ _e values, ranging from 1.5 to 350 yr for closed lakes, and from 2.9 days to 2 yr for open lakes. We propose methods involving Fourier analysis for inverting closed lake level or area records to obtain plots of a simple aridity index C. It is shown that for all ≈ 200 of the world's large (? 100 km²) closed lakes, satellite remote sensing of lake levels and areas is currently sensitive enough to monitor variations in C (e.g. in average basin precipitation) of order 1% to 10% on the time-scale of years to decades.     

The simulated atmospheric response to expansion of the Arctic boreal forest biome

Over the last century, the Arctic has warmed at twice the rate of the planet as a whole. Observational evidence indicates that this rapid warming is affecting the tundra and boreal forest biomes by changing their structure and geographic distribution. A global climate model (GCM) was used to explore the atmospheric response to boreal forest expansion by applying a one-grid cell shift of the forest into tundra. This subtle shift is meant to represent the expansion that would occur this century rather than more extreme scenarios predicted by dynamic vegetation models. Results show that this shift causes an average annual warming of 0.3 °C over the region because of a reduction in the surface albedo and an increase in net radiation. A warming of ~1.0 °C occurs in spring when the forest masks the higher albedo snow-covered surface and results in snowmelt and a reduction in cloud cover. Results fail to show a larger-scale dynamical response although some warming of the lower and mid troposphere occurs in July. No changes were found in the position or strength of the Arctic frontal zone as some studies have indicated will occur with a shift in the boreal forest-tundra boundary. These findings suggest that coupled model simulations that predict larger changes in vegetation distribution are likely overemphasizing the amount of Arctic warming that will occur this century. These findings also indicate that a realistic dynamical response to subtle land cover change might not be correctly simulated by GCMs run at coarse spatial resolutions.     

Intercomparison of Surface Radiative Fluxes in the Arctic Ocean

Recent satellite data analysis has provided improved data sets relevant to the surface energy budget in the Arctic Ocean. In this paper, surface radiation properties in the Arctic Ocean obtained from the Surface Radiation Budget（SRB3.0） and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project（ISCCP-FD） during 1984– 2007 are analyzed and compared. Our analysis suggests that these datasets show encouraging agreement in basin-wide averaged seasonal cycle and spatial distribution of surface albedo; net surface shortwave and all-wave radiative fluxes; and shortwave, longwave, and all-wave cloud radiative forcings. However, a systematic large discrepancy is detected for the net surface longwave radiative flux between the two data sets at a magnitude of ~ 23 W m–2, which is primarily attributed to significant differences in surface temperature, particularly from April to June. Moreover, the largest difference in surface shortwave and all-wave cloud radiative forcings between the two data sets is apparent in early June at a magnitude of 30 W m–2.     

北极地区极昼气候突变现象及转型成因研究

基于1979-2018年的NCEP-DOE Reanalysis Ⅱ逐日再分析数据,采用模糊C均值聚类算法(Fuzzy C-Means Algorithm,FCMA)将北极地区极昼期间的气候分为寒干型、半寒干型、半暖湿型及暖湿型4种.在夏季北极海冰快速减少的气候背景下,这4种气候型控制的区域也相应发生了明显变化.其中,...     

Comment on modeling ecological response to climatic change

Researchers have developed many computer simulation models to project ecological responses to climatic change. Three general types of models are examined: transfer functions, stand models, and physiological models. Criteria for evaluation are, first, ability to represent observed and theoretical responses to climatic change i.e., geographical migration, individualistic responses, and disequilibrium or inertia, and second, ability to provide useful information on biological diversity and impacts on society. Because of their roots in ecological interactions at the species level, stand models best meet these criteria at present, but physiological models have greater potential, given unlimited computing power.     

Transient climatic response to an increase of greenhouse gases

The physical factors governing the transient climatic response to an increase of greenhouse gases are discussed, reasons for remaining uncertainties are identified, and recent climate modelling results are briefly summarized. The relevance of the transient response, and of uncertainties in the transient response, to questions such as the applicability of equilibrium climate model simulations to a gradual greenhouse gas increase, the verification of model projections, rates of climatic change, and the impacts of preventative strategies for dealing with the buildup of greenhouse gases is also discussed.     

The response of climatic jump in summer in north china to global warming

To reveal climatic variation over North China, the climatic jumps in summer in Beijing are analyzed using the data of precipitation of summer (June, July, August) during the period of 1841-1993, in which those missed before 1950 were reconstructed by the stepwise regression method with minimum forecast error. The climatic jumps at different scales are analyzed using different diagnostic methods with different decade (10-100 years) windows. Some new methods and ideas are proposed. The variance difference, the linear tendency difference, and the difference of power spectral distribution between the samples before and after the period at the moving point in the center of the series are compared with other methods (for example, Mann-Kendall test, t-test, and accumulative anomaly etc.). Considering the differences among the statistics above, a synthetic jump index is also proposed in order to get the definite jump points in the moving series. The results show that the climatic jumps in the area occurred in the 1890’s, the 1910s and the 1920s, and mostly in the 1920s, which suggests that the local climatic jumps in North China have a simultaneous response to the global warming in the hundred-year scales.     

Heat exchange between water and ice in the Arctic Ocean

Summary The heat balance equation for the bottom surface of floating sea ice is evaluated on the basis of observations of ice temperature, water temperature, current velocity, and ablation or accretion of ice. Assuming equality of the eddy diffusivities for momentum, heat, and salt (average 24 cm² sec^–1) it is shown that the temperature gradient in the oceanic boundary layer is extremely small (averages between 2.10^–5 and 4.10^–4°C/meter) and difficult to measure directly. It is suggested that a large part of the heat transfer from the relatively warm Atlantic water to the arctic atmosphere may occur through open leads in the ice cover.

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Zusammenfassung Die Wärmebilanzgleichung für die Unterseite von schwimmendem Meereis wird an Hand von Beobachtungen der Eistemperatur, der Wassertemperatur, der Strömungsgeschwindigkeit und der Eisdickenänderung ausgewertet. Unter der Annahme gleicher Austauschkoeffizienten für Bewegungsgröße, Wärme und Salzgehalt (im Mittel 24 cm² sec^–1) ergibt sich für die ozeanische Grenzschicht ein außerordentlich kleiner Gradient der Wassertemperatur (durchschnittlich zwischen 2.10^–5 und 4.10^–4°C/Meter), der durch direkte Beobachtungen schwer nachzuweisen ist. Es ist zu vermuten, daß ein beträchtlicher Teil der Wärmeabgabe von der relativ warmen atlantischen Wassermasse an die arktische Atmosphäre durch Öffnungen in der Meereisdecke erfolgt.

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Résumé On établit l'équation du bilan thermique valable pour la surface inférieure de la glace marine dérivante. Pour ce faire, on se sert d'observations de la température de la glace, de celle de l'eau, de la vitesse du courant et des variations de l'épaisseur de la glace. En admettant que les coefficients d'échange sont les mêmes pour la quantité de mouvement, la chaleur et le taux de salinité (en moyenne 24 cm² sec^–1), il résulte pour la couche limite un gradient extrêmement faible de la température de l'eau (situé en moyenne entre 2·10^–5 et 4·10^–4°C/m); un tel gradient est difficile à prouver au moyen d'observations directes. On peut supposer qu'une partie importante de la chaleur transmise par l'eau relativement chaude de l'Atlantique à l'atmosphère arctique passe au travers des lacunes de la couche de glace recouvrant l'océan.

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With 4 Figures

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Contribution 141, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle. This is a thesis submitted by the author in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science.     

Specific features of the transport of freshwater anomalies in the Arctic Ocean

The results are considered of studying inhomogeneities in the thermohaline structure of the Arctic Ocean surface layer from the data of different measurement platforms including North Pole drifting stations and ITP (Ice-Tethered Profiler) autonomous buoys. The characteristics of inhomogeneities in the thermohaline structure and of mechanisms of their transport are presented. Qualitative conclusions concerning the types of eddies revealed from the results of observations are proposed as well as the classification of dynamic systems that transport water masses.     

Heat budget of the upper Arctic Ocean under a warming climate

The heat budget of the upper Arctic Ocean is examined in an ensemble of coupled climate models under idealised increasing CO₂ scenarios. All of the experiments show a strong amplification of surface air temperatures but a smaller increase in sea surface temperature than the rest of the world as heat is lost to the atmosphere as the sea-ice cover is reduced. We carry out a heat budget analysis of the Arctic Ocean in an ensemble of model runs to understand the changes that occur as the Arctic becomes ice free in summer. We find that as sea-ice retreats heat is lost from the ocean surface to the atmosphere contributing to the amplification of Arctic surface temperatures. Furthermore, heat is mixed upwards into the mixed layer as a result of increased upper ocean mixing and there is increased advection of heat into the Arctic as the ice edge retreats. Heat lost from the upper Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere is therefore replenished by mixing of warmer water from below and by increased advection of warm water from lower latitudes. The ocean is therefore able to contribute more to Arctic amplification.     

Impact of clouds on the surface radiation balance of the Arctic Ocean

Summary The relationship between clouds and the surface radiative fluxes over the Arctic Ocean are explored by conducting a series of modelling experiments using a one-dimensional thermodynamic sea ice model. The sensitivity of radiative flux to perturbations in cloud fraction and cloud optical depth are determined. These experiments illustrate the substantial effect that clouds have on the state of the sea ice and on the surface radiative fluxes. The effect of clouds on the net flux of radiation at the surface is very complex over the Arctic Ocean particularly due to the presence of the underlying sea ice. Owing to changes in surface albedo and temperature associated with changing cloud properties, there is a strong non-linearity between cloud properties and surface radiative fluxes. The model results are evaluated in three different contexts: 1) the sensitivity of the arctic surface radiation balance to uncertainties in cloud properties; 2) the impact of interannual variability in cloud characteristics on surface radiation fluxes and sea ice surface characteristics; and 3) the impact of climate change and the resulting changes in cloud properties on the surface radiation fluxes and sea ice characteristics.With 11 Figures     

Modelling of Ocean Shallow Convection under Fast Ice in the Arctic

Ocean convection in the Antarctic has been studied many times and has been revealed to be responsible for ice-cover reduction. In the Arctic, proof of that phenomenon has not been documented. It is believed that this phenomenon happens on a smaller scale in the Arctic when local circulation of deep warmer water melts and slows ice production. An example of this is the North Water (NOW) polynya in northern Baffin Bay. A polynya is an area of open water in an otherwise ice-covered area. As ice forms under the fast ice near the boundary of the polynya, ocean salts (brine) are ejected from the newly formed ice. This water, which has an increased concentration of salt, sinks and is replaced by warmer water from below, and this slows ice formation. In our study a coupled one-dimensional thermodynamic snow–fast ice model incorporating ocean heat flux input via a shallow convection model was used. Ice thickness was calculated using a thermodynamic model that included a current-induced entrainment model and a convection model to account for brine rejection during ice growth. Atmospheric observations from Grise Fiord and Thule and ocean profiles around the NOW polynya near these sites were used as input to the model. This purely thermodynamic study enables us to obtain ice thickness values that can be compared with qualitative observations. This modelling study compares two sites related to the NOW polynya. The results indicate that the shallow convection model simulates the reduction of fast ice near Thule but not near Grise Fiord.     

南印度洋热带气旋生成频数气候变率对海温异常模响应的研究

基于1980—2014年的哈德莱中心海冰及海温的月平均SST资料,美国联合台风警报中心(JTWC)的best-track资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均资料,利用广义平衡反馈方法(GEFA)研究南印度洋热带气旋(TC)生成频数对海表温度异常的响应特征。研究表明:(1)南印度TC生成频数对北太平洋第一模态(NP1)和热带大西洋第二模态(TA2)有显著响应,分别通过了置信度为99%和96%的Monte-Carlo检验,对应的响应振幅分别为0.67和0.49。(2)局地环境要素对关键SSTA模的GEFA响应结果显示:当NP1出现类似于太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的正位相时,850 h Pa相对涡度在15°S附近的印度洋海域上都有一个自西向东的显著正响应带,垂直风切变在马达加斯加以东的大部分海域都表现为显著的负响应,600 h Pa相对湿度在马达加斯加以东的部分海域表现为显著的正响应;当TA2对应的时间系数为正异常时,850 h Pa相对涡度和600 h Pa相对湿度在澳大利亚的西北部印度洋海域表现为显著的正响应,垂直风切变在澳大利亚的西北部印度洋海域表现为显著的负响应。     

The effects of precipitation and river runoff in a coupled ice-ocean model of the Arctic

A coupled ice-ocean model of the Arctic is developed in order to study the effects of precipitation and river runoff on sea ice. A dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model is coupled to an ocean general circulation model which includes a turbulent closure scheme for vertical mixing. The model is forced by interannually varying atmospheric temperature and pressure data from 1980–1989, and spatially varying mean monthly precipitation and river runoffs. Salinity and fresh water fluxes to the ocean from ice growth, snow melt, rain, and runoffs are computed, with no artificial constraints on the ocean salinity. The modeled ice thickness is similar to the observed pattern, with the thickest ice remaining against the Canadian Archipelago throughout the year. The modeled ice drift reproduces the Beaufort gyre and Transpolar drift exiting through Fram Strait. The stable arctic halocline produced by the vertical mixing scheme isolates the surface from the Atlantic layer and reduces the vertical fluxes of heat and salinity. A sensitivity experiment with zero precipitation results in rapidly decreasing ice thickness, in response to greater ocean heat flux from a weakening of the halocline, while an experiment with doubled precipitation results in a smaller increase in ice thickness. A zero-runoff experiment results in a slower decrease in ice thickness than the zero-precipitation case, due to the decadal time scale of the transport of runoff in the model. The results suggest that decadal trends in both arctic precipitation and river runoffs, caused either by anthropogenic or natural climatic change, have the potential to exert broad-scale impacts on the arctic sea ice regime. Received: 6 February 1996 / Accepted: 4 April 1996